Prognosis of unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma: comparison of seven staging systems (TNM, Okuda, BCLC, CLIP, CUPI, JIS, CIS) in a Chinese cohort. PLoS One. 2014;9:e88182. [PMID: 24609114 PMCID: PMC3946426 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0088182]

Nomogram and calculator for predicting the prognosis of patients with giant hepatocellular carcinoma

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to explore the factors affecting the overall survival (OS) of giant hepatocellular carcinoma (G-HCC) patients and establish a nomogram and an Internet-based OS calculator for evaluating the OS of G-HCC patients.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

A total of 2445 G-HCC patients were searched in the SEER database. The independent variables affecting OS of G-HCC patients were determined by univariate and multivariate analyses, and a nomogram and Internet-based OS calculator were established. The accuracy of the nomogram was evaluated by the C-index, the AUC curve, and calibration curve.

RESULTS

Grade, surgery, radiotherapy, chemotherapy, T-staging, M-staging, AFP, and fibrosis were identified as independent variables affecting OS. These variables were included in the nomogram model and Internet-based OS calculator to evaluate OS in G-HCC patients. The C-indices and AUC of the nomogram are better than AJCC-staging system. Similarly, the calibration curves revealed that the actual survival was consistent with nomogram-based survival.

CONCLUSION

The nomogram and Internet-based OS calculator are superior to the traditional AJCC-staging system in the reliability and convenience of prognosis assessment for G-HCC patients, which is more conducive for clinicians to predict the survival of G-HCC patients and make the best treatment strategy.

Tislelizumab vs Sorafenib as First-Line Treatment for Unresectable Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Phase 3 Randomized Clinical Trial

Importance

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a leading cause of cancer-related mortality, and additional first-line treatments are needed. The programmed cell death protein 1 inhibitor tislelizumab demonstrated efficacy and a tolerable safety profile as second-line HCC treatment.

Objective

To investigate efficacy and safety of tislelizumab vs sorafenib tosylate for first-line treatment of unresectable HCC.

Design, Setting, and Participants

The open-label, global, multiregional phase 3 RATIONALE-301 randomized clinical trial enrolled systemic therapy-naive adults with histologically confirmed HCC, Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage B or C disease, disease progression following (or patient was not amenable to) locoregional therapy, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status of 1 or less, and Child-Pugh class A, between December 27, 2017, and October 2, 2019. Data cutoff was July 11, 2022.

Intervention

Patients were randomized 1:1 to receive tislelizumab, 200 mg intravenously every 3 weeks, or sorafenib tosylate, 400 mg orally twice daily.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary end point was overall survival (OS); secondary end points included objective response rate, progression-free survival, duration of response, and safety.

Results

A total of 674 patients were included in the analysis (570 men [84.6%]; median age, 61 years [range, 23-86 years]). As of July 11, 2022, minimum study follow-up was 33 months. The primary end point of OS noninferiority of tislelizumab vs sorafenib was met in the intention-to-treat population (n = 674); median overall survival was 15.9 (95% CI, 13.2-19.7) months vs 14.1 (95% CI, 12.6-17.4) months, respectively (hazard ratio [HR], 0.85 [95.003% CI, 0.71-1.02]), and superiority of tislelizumab vs sorafenib was not met. The objective response rate was 14.3% (n = 49) for tislelizumab vs 5.4% (n = 18) for sorafenib, and median duration of response was 36.1 (95% CI, 16.8 to not evaluable) months vs 11.0 (95% CI, 6.2-14.7) months, respectively. Median progression-free survival was 2.1 (95% CI, 2.1-3.5) months vs 3.4 (95% CI, 2.2-4.1) months with tislelizumab vs sorafenib (HR, 1.11 [95% CI, 0.92-1.33]). The incidence of treatment-emergent adverse events (AEs) was 96.2% (325 of 338 patients) for tislelizumab and 100% (n = 324) for sorafenib. Grade 3 or greater treatment-related AEs were reported in 75 patients (22.2%) receiving tislelizumab and 173 (53.4%) receiving sorafenib. There was a lower incidence of treatment-related AEs leading to drug discontinuation (21 [6.2%] vs 33 [10.2%]) and drug modification (68 [20.1%] vs 187 [57.7%]) with tislelizumab vs sorafenib.

Conclusions and Relevance

In RATIONALE-301, tislelizumab demonstrated OS benefit that was noninferior vs sorafenib, with a higher objective response rate and more durable responses, while median progression-free survival was longer with sorafenib. Tislelizumab demonstrated a favorable safety profile vs sorafenib.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03412773.

Construction and validation of a survival prognostic model for stage III hepatocellular carcinoma: a real-world, multicenter clinical study

OBJECTIVE

To construct a survival prediction model for patients with TNM stage III hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) to guide the clinical diagnosis and treatment of HCC patients and improve prognosis.

METHODS

Based on data from patients with stage III (AJCC 7th TNM stage) recorded by the American Institute of Cancer Research from 2010 to 2013, risk factors affecting the prognosis were screened by Cox univariate and multivariate regression, line plots was constructed, and the credibility of the model was verified by Boostrap method. ROC operating curves, calibration curves and DCA clinical decision curves were used to evaluate the model, and Kaplan-Meier was used for survival analysis was used to evaluate the efficacy of the model. External survival data from patients newly diagnosed with stage III hepatocellular carcinoma during 2014-2015 were used to validate and fit the model and to optimize the model.

RESULTS

Age > 75 years vs.18-53 years [HR = 1.502; 95%CI(1.134-1.990)], stage IIIC vs. Stage IIIA [HR = 1.930; 95%CI(1.509-2.470)], lobotomy vs. non-surgery [HR = 0.295; 95%CI(0.228-0.383)], radiotherapy vs. non-radiotherapy [HR = 0.481; 95%CI(0.373-0.619)], chemotherapy vs. Non-chemotherapy [HR = 0.443; 95%CI(0.381-0.515)], positive serum AFP before treatment vs. negative [HR = 1.667; 95%CI(1.356-2.049)], the above indicators are independent prognostic factors for patients with stage III hepatocellular carcinoma, and the P values for the above results were less than 0.05. A joint prediction model was constructed based on age, TNM stage, whether and how to operate, whether to receive radiotherapy, whether to receive chemotherapy, pre-treatment serum AFP status and liver fibrosis score. The consistency index of the improved prognosis model was 0.725.

CONCLUSIONS

The traditional TNM staging has limitations for clinical diagnosis and treatment, while the Nomogram model modified by TNM staging has good predictive efficacy and clinical significance.

Evaluation and Application of Drug Resistance by Biomarkers in the Clinical Treatment of Liver Cancer

Liver cancer is one of the most lethal cancers in the world, mainly owing to the lack of effective means for early monitoring and treatment. Accordingly, there is considerable research interest in various clinically applicable methods for addressing these unmet needs. At present, the most commonly used biomarker for the early diagnosis of liver cancer is alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), but AFP is sensitive to interference from other factors and cannot really be used as the basis for determining liver cancer. Treatment options in addition to liver surgery (resection, transplantation) include radiation therapy, chemotherapy, and targeted therapy. However, even more expensive targeted drug therapies have a limited impact on the clinical outcome of liver cancer. One of the big reasons is the rapid emergence of drug resistance. Therefore, in addition to finding effective biomarkers for early diagnosis, an important focus of current discussions is on how to effectively adjust and select drug strategies and guidelines for the treatment of liver cancer patients. In this review, we bring this thought process to the drug resistance problem faced by different treatment strategies, approaching it from the perspective of gene expression and molecular biology and the possibility of finding effective solutions.

Proposal and Validation of a Novel Scoring System for Hepatocellular Carcinomas Beyond Curability Borders

Optimal scoring system for clinical prognostic factors in patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is currently uncertain. We aimed to develop and externally validate an easy to use tool, particularly for this population, and named it the "unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma prognostic index" (UHPI). We evaluated the data of patients with treatment-naive unresectable HCC who were diagnosed in the training center from 2010 to 2019 (n = 209). A simple prognostic model was developed by assigning points for each covariate in proportion to the beta coefficients in the Cox multivariable model. Predictive performance and distinction ability of the UHPI were further evaluated in an independent European validation cohort (n = 147) and compared with 11 other available models. A simple scoring system was derived, assigning 0.5/1/2 scores for six independent covariates including, the Child-Pugh score, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, maximum tumor size, vascular invasion or extrahepatic metastasis, lymph node involvement, and alpha-fetoprotein. The UHPI score, ranging from 0 to 6, showed superior performance in prognosis prediction and outperformed 11 other staging or prognostic models, giving the highest homogeneity (c-index, 6-month and 1-year area under the receiver operator characteristic curves), lowest Akaike information criterion, and -2 log-likelihood ratio values. The UHPI score allocated well the risk of patients with unresectable HCC for mortality within the first year, using two cut-off values (low-risk, <0.5; intermediate-risk, 0.5-2; high-risk, >2). Conclusion: The UHPI score can predict prognosis better than other systems in subjects with unresectable HCC and can be used in clinical practice or trials to estimate the 6-month and 1-year survival probabilities for this group.

Circulating tumour DNA methylation in hepatocellular carcinoma diagnosis using digital droplet PCR

Objective

To evaluate the performance of a DNA methylation-based digital droplet polymerase chain reaction (ddPCR) assay to detect aberrant DNA methylation in cell-free DNA (cfDNA) and to determine its application in the detection of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

Methods

The present study recruited patients with liver-related diseases and healthy control subjects. Blood samples were used for the extraction of cfDNA, which was then bisulfite converted and the extent of DNA methylation quantified using a ddPCR platform.

Results

A total of 97 patients with HCC, 80 healthy control subjects and 46 patients with chronic hepatitis B/C virus infection were enrolled in the study. The level of cfDNA in the HCC group was significantly higher than that in the healthy control group. For the detection of HCC, based on a cut-off value of 15.7% for the cfDNA methylation ratio, the sensitivity and specificity were 78.57% and 89.38%, respectively. The diagnostic accuracy was 85.27%, the positive predictive value was 81.91% and the negative predictive value was 87.20%. The positive likelihood ratio of 15.7% in HCC diagnosis was 7.40, while the negative likelihood ratio was 0.24.

Conclusions

A sensitive methylation-based assay might serve as a liquid biopsy test for diagnosing HCC.

Model to Predict Overall Survival in Patients With Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Curative Hepatectomy

Background

The prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains difficult to accurately predict. The purpose of this study was to establish a prognostic model for HCC based on a novel scoring system.

Methods

Five hundred and sixty patients who underwent a curative hepatectomy for treatment of HCC at our hospital between January 2007 and January 2014 were included in this study. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to screen for prognostic risk factors. The nomogram construction was based on Cox proportional hazard regression models, and the development of the new scoring model was analyzed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and then compared with other clinical indexes. The novel scoring system was then validated with an external dataset from a different medical institution.

Results

Multivariate analysis showed that tumor size, portal vein tumor thrombus (PVTT), invasion of adjacent tissues, microvascular invasion, and levels of fibrinogen and total bilirubin were independent prognostic factors. The new scoring model had higher area under the curve (AUC) values compared to other systems, and the C-index of the nomogram was highly consistent for evaluating the survival of HCC patients in the validation and training datasets, as well as the external validation dataset.

Conclusions

Based on serum markers and other clinical indicators, a precise model to predict the prognosis of patients with HCC was developed. This novel scoring system can be an effective tool for both surgeons and patients.

Development and Validation of a Machine Learning Prognostic Model for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Recurrence After Surgical Resection

Surgical resection remains primary curative treatment for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) while over 50% of patients experience recurrence, which calls for individualized recurrence prediction and early surveillance. This study aimed to develop a machine learning prognostic model to identify high-risk patients after surgical resection and to review importance of variables in different time intervals. The patients in this study were from two centers including Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital (EHSH) and Mengchao Hepatobiliary Hospital (MHH). The best-performed model was determined, validated, and applied to each time interval (0-1 year, 1-2 years, 2-3 years, and 3-5 years). Importance scores were used to illustrate feature importance in different time intervals. In addition, a risk heat map was constructed which visually depicted the risk of recurrence in different years. A total of 7,919 patients from two centers were included, of which 3,359 and 230 patients experienced recurrence, metastasis or died during the follow-up time in the EHSH and MHH datasets, respectively. The XGBoost model achieved the best discrimination with a c-index of 0.713 in internal validation cohort. Kaplan-Meier curves succeed to stratify external validation cohort into different risk groups (p < 0.05 in all comparisons). Tumor characteristics contribute more to HCC relapse in 0 to 1 year while HBV infection and smoking affect patients' outcome largely in 3 to 5 years. Based on machine learning prediction model, the peak of recurrence can be predicted for individual HCC patients. Therefore, clinicians can apply it to personalize the management of postoperative survival.

NT5DC2 is a novel prognostic marker in human hepatocellular carcinoma

Reliable biomarkers for the prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are rare, and novel biomarkers are required for the appropriate management of HCC. 5′-Nucleotidase domain containing 2 (NT5DC2) acts as an oncogene in various tumors, but its functions as a biomarker have not been confirmed. Therefore, the present study aimed to resolve these functions by analyzing the prognostic value of NT5DC2 in patients with HCC. A tissue microarray (TMA) was prepared and NT5DC2 expression was measured via IHC staining in TMA dots. The liver cancer (LIHC) cohort in The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) was enrolled as a secondary cohort. Kaplan-Meier survival analyses and Cox regression models were used for assessment of the prognostic value of NT5DC2. Gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA) was performed in TCGA LIHC cohort. A total of 134 patients with HCC were retrospectively enrolled in the Peking Union Medical College Hospital cohort and clinical data were collected. A total of 359 patients with HCC in TCGA were enrolled as TCGA cohort. NT5DC2 was used as an indicator of overall survival (OS) and relapse-free survival (RFS) in multiple cohorts. In the multivariate Cox regression model, NT5DC2 upregulation was an independent prognostic factor of OS in both cohorts. GSEA indicated the enrichment of a series of survival- and metastasis-related gene-sets, such as LEE_LIVER_CANCER_SURVIVAL_UP and LIAO_METASTASIS. Collectively, it was suggested that NT5DC2 upregulation was associated with poor OS and RFS in HCC, and was a potential predictive marker for HCC stratification.

Relationship between presarcopenia and event occurrence in patients with primary hepatocellular carcinoma

Presarcopenia is a prognostic factor in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The Japan integrated staging (JIS) score is a prognostic method that combines the Child–Turcotte–Pugh classification and the tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) staging for HCC. We investigated the relationship between presarcopenia, the JIS score, and prognosis in patients with primary HCC. This retrospective study included 153 patients with primary HCC who were hospitalized from October 2011 to March 2018 at Municipal Hospital of Kofu. The skeletal muscle mass was measured using simplified psoas muscle mass index (PMI) based on CT imaging, and PMI using the volume analyzer SYNAPSE VINCENT ver3.0. We diagnosed presarcopenia based on the cut off value according to the assessment criteria for sarcopenia in liver disease defined by the Japan Society of Hepatology. Forty-three patients (28%) were diagnosed with presarcopenia. The median event-free survival was significantly worse in patients with presarcopenia than those without presarcopenia (P = 0.016). In multivariate analysis, presence of presarcopenia, JIS score ≥3, alpha-fetoprotein ≥200 ng/ml, and prothrombin induced by vitamin K absence-II ≥ 200 mAU/ml were significant prognostic factors. Among the patients with JIS scores ≥3, there was no difference in the event occurrence rate with presence of presarcopenia (P = 0.96). Among the patients with JIS scores ≤2, the median event-free-survival was significantly shorter in those with presarcopenia than those without presarcopenia (P = 0.045). Presarcopenia was an independent prognostic factor in patients with primary HCC. In patients with JIS scores ≤2, the median event-free survival was significantly shorter in those with presarcopenia compared to those without presarcopenia. In the patients with JIS scores ≥3, there was no difference in the event occurrence rates in those with and without presarcopenia.

Identification of predictive factors in hepatocellular carcinoma outcome: A longitudinal study

Various surgical methods impact the prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) differently. However, clinical guidelines remain inconsistent and the relative importance of predictors of survival outcomes requires further evaluation. The present study aimed to rank the importance of predictive factors that impact the survival outcomes of patients with HCC and to compare the prognosis associated with different surgical methods based on data obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results database. To achieve these aims, the present study used a random forest (RF) model to detect important predictive factors associated with survival outcomes in patients with HCC. Cox regression analysis was used to compare different surgery methods. The variables included in the Cox regression model were selected based on the Gini index calculated by the RF model. Using the RF model, the present study demonstrated that surgery method, tumor size and age were the first, second and third most important factors associated with HCC prognosis, respectively. Overall, patients who underwent local tumor destruction [(hazard ratio (HR)=0.48; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.45–0.51; P<0.001)], wedge or segmental resection (HR, 0.31; 95% CI, 0.29–0.33; P<0.001), lobectomy (HR, 0.29, 95% CI, 0.27–0.31; P<0.001) or liver transplantation (HR, 0.16; 95% CI, 0.14–0.17; P<0.001) demonstrated improved overall survival time compared with those treated with surgery, with a gradual decreasing trend observed in HRs. The present study demonstrated that the surgical method used is the most important predictor of the survival outcomes of patients with HCC. Liver transplantation resulted in the best prognosis for patients with HCC, except for those with undifferentiated tumors or distant metastasis.

Applicability of scoring systems predicting outcome of transarterial chemoembolization for hepatocellular carcinoma

PURPOSE

Several scoring systems have been proposed to predict the outcome of transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, the application of these scores to a bridging to transplant setting is poorly validated. Evaluation of the applicability of prognostic scores for patients undergoing TACE in palliative intention vs. bridging therapy to liver transplantation (LT) is necessary.

METHODS

Between 2008 and 2017, 148 patients with HCC received 492 completed TACE procedures (158 for bridging to transplant; 334 TACE procedures in palliative treatment intention at our center and were analyzed retrospectively. Scores (ART, CLIP, ALBI, APRI, SNACOR, HAP, STATE score, Child-Pugh, MELD, Okuda and BCLC) were calculated and evaluated for prediction of overall survival. ROC analysis was performed to assess prediction of 3-year survival and treatment discontinuation.

RESULTS

In patients receiving TACE in palliative intention most scores predicted OS in univariate analysis but only mSNACOR score (p = 0.006), State score (p < 0.001) and Child-Pugh score (p < 0.001) revealed statistical significance in the multivariate analysis. In the bridging to LT cohort only the BCLC score revealed statistical significance (p = 0.002).

CONCLUSIONS

Clinical usability of suggested scoring systems for TACE might be limited depending on the individual patient cohorts and the indication. Especially in patients receiving TACE as bridging to LT none of the scores showed sufficiently applicability. In our study Child-Pugh score, STATE score and mSNACOR score showed the best performance assessing OS in patients with TACE as palliative therapy.

The association between pretreatment serum alkaline phosphatase and prognosis in hepatocellular carcinoma: A meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Numerous studies have investigated the association between pretreatment serum alkaline phosphatase (ALP) and prognosis in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but conclusions remain controversial. Thus, we performed a meta-analysis to assess systematically the relationship between ALP and prognosis in HCC.

METHODS

We searched the PubMed, EMBASE, and Web of Science databases for eligible studies up to October. A combined hazard ratio (HR) was determined to describe the correlation between pretreatment serum ALP level and prognosis in HCC patients. Overall survival (OS) was calculated from the date of treatment either to the end point of the follow-up period or to the date of death by any cause. Disease-free survival (DFS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) were defined as the period from the date of treatment to the date of last follow-up or to the date of recurrence. OS was regarded as the major outcome.

RESULTS

Altogether, 21 studies about OS and 6 studies about DFS/RFS were included in this meta-analysis. Our combined results showed that there was an inverse association of pretreatment serum ALP level with OS (HR=1.15, 95% CI: 1.12-1.19) and RFS (HR=1.78, 95% CI: 1.37-2.31).

CONCLUSION

There was a close association between high pretreatment ALP level and poor survival in HCC patients, indicating that ALP may be used as a biomarker for prognosis. More high-quality studies are required to validate our findings further, considering the limitations of our meta-analysis.

Ginsenoside Rg3 Prolongs Survival of the Orthotopic Hepatocellular Carcinoma Model by Inducing Apoptosis and Inhibiting Angiogenesis

Aim

Microvessel density is a marker of tumor angiogenesis activity for development and metastasis. Our preliminary study showed that ginsenoside Rg3 (Rg3) induces apoptosis in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in vitro. The aim of this study was to investigate the cross-link for apoptosis induction and antiangiogenesis effect of Rg3 on orthotopic HCC in vivo.

Methods

The murine HCC cells Hep1-6 were implanted in the liver of mouse. With oral feeding of Rg3 (10 mg/kg once a day for 30 days), the quantitative analysis of apoptosis was performed by using pathology and a transmission electron microscope and microvessel density was quantitatively measured by immunohistochemical staining of the CD105 antibody. The mice treated with Rg3 (n = 10) were compared with the control (n = 10) using Kaplan-Meier analysis. Animal weight and tumor weight were measured to determine the toxicity of Rg3 and antitumor effect on an orthotopic HCC tumor model.

Results

With oral feeding of Rg3 daily in the first 30 days on tumor implantation, Rg3 significantly decreased the orthotopic tumor growth and increased the survival of animals (P < 0.05). Rg3-treated mice showed a longer survival than the control (P < 0.05). Rg3 treatment induced apoptosis and inhibited angiogenesis. They contributed to the tumor shrinkage. Rg3 initialized the tumor apoptotic progress, which then weakened the tumor volume and its capability to produce the vascularized network for further growth of the tumor and remote metastasis.

Conclusion

Rg3 inhibited the activation of microtumor vessel formation in vivo besides its apoptosis induction. Rg3 may be used as an adjuvant agent in the clinical HCC treatment regimen.

Evaluation of survival of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: A comparative analysis of prognostic systems

BACKGROUND AND AIM

There are several prognostic systems that address different aspects of the patient and the tumour and can guide the management of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study aimed to evaluate and compare the eight staging systems for a group of patients in a public service in Brazil.

METHODS

Patients with HCC were retrospectively analysed between 2000 and 2012. The prognostic systems Okuda, The Cancer of the Liver Italian Program (CLIP), the Chinese University Prognostic Index (CUPI), Groupe d'Etude et de Traitément du Carcinome Hepatocellulaire (GRETCH), the modified TNM-based Japan Integrated Score (JIS) combined with alpha-fetoprotein and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP), the TNM system, and the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer Classification (BCLC) were applied to these patients and compared through model fit measurements, likelihood scores, and the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC).

RESULTS

A total of 247 patients were studied. The average survival time was 60 months. The TNM, Okuda, CLIP, GRETCH, modified JIS, and BCLC systems were well correlated with one another and individually important to the prediction of survival among the patients studied. However, in the statistical analysis, the CUPI delivered the best predictive performance (AIC = 566; log-likelihood = -281,240).

CONCLUSION

Although the CUPI system was demonstrated to be the most appropriate HCC staging system for the studied population, the choice of an ideal system is a controversial subject, and future studies with larger numbers of patients are necessary for the validation of the CUPI system as the method of choice for other populations.

New nomogram predicts the recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with negative preoperative serum AFP subjected to curative resection

BACKGROUND

There is currently no established model for predicting the recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with negative alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) after curative resection. Therefore, the objective of this study was to establish a nomogram to identify the risk of recurrence in AFP-negative (<or = 20 ng/mL) patients with HCC.

METHODS

A retrospective study was conducted to establish the recurrence-free survival (RFS) nomogram in a training cohort of 326 AFP-negative HCC patients. The results were validated on a well-matched validation cohort in the literature.

RESULTS

Macrovascular tumour invasion (P = 0.018, HR = 1.642), macronodular cirrhosis (P < 0.001, HR = 2.128), tumor size (P = 0.004, HR = 1.691), and γ-glutamyl transferase (P = 0.039, HR = 1.496) were found to be independent risk factors for RFS in the training cohort, and all these factors were included in the nomogram. The C-index for RFS in the nomogram was 0.661, which was higher than that of the BCLC system (0.551), the CLIP score (0.537), and the prediction model of Ju (0.618). The high consistency between the nomogram prediction and actual observation was further demonstrated by the calibration curve. In the subsequent study, the better net benefit and higher threshold probability of the nomogram were determined by decision curve analysis, and these advantages were confirmed in the validation cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

The present RFS nomogram for AFP-negative HCC patients after curative resection provides an accurate and reliable prognostic model to facilitate recurrence surveillance. Once AFP-negative patients are predicted to have a high recurrence score, additional high-end imaging examinations, such as MRI or CT exams, should be considered, and the interval time of regular folow-up should be reduced.

Randomized clinical trial: Nucleos(t)ide analogues improved survival of CHB-related HCC patients via reducing severity and progression of malignancy

BACKGROUND

The influence of nucleos(t)ide analogues (NAs) to treat Chronic hepatitis B (CHB) related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains to be explored.

AIM

To investigate if NAs reduce the severity and progression of CHB-related HCC.

RESULTS

Among 532 patients, there were 118 or 414 CHB-related HCC with or without NAs therapy, respectively. BCLC scores, serum level of ALT/AST and HBV DNA were compared. During follow-up, the survival period of CHB-related HCC patients with sustained NAs is significantly longer than that with NAs post-HCC and NAs naïve (p < 0.05). Factors significantly associated with the poor overall survival of CHB-related HCC include BCLC scores (hazard ratio, 1.84 [95% confidence interval, 1.57-2.15], p < 0.001), NAs post-HCC or NAs naïve (1.33 [1.07-1.65], p < 0.01), serum AST ≥ 40 IU/L (1.48 [1.03-2.12], p < 0.05) and HBV DNA ≥ 104 copies/ml (1.36 [1.01-1.83], p < 0.001).

METHODS

Outcomes of 532 CHB-related HCC patients with/without NAs were investigated. Overall survival of CHB-related HCC patients, NAs naïve (n = 156), NAs received post-HCC (n = 258) and NAs sustained (n = 118) were determined.

CONCLUSIONS

NAs reduced severity of CHB-related HCC patients. Sustained NAs is an important factor associated with the extended survival of CHB-related HCC patients.

Validation and ranking of seven staging systems of hepatocellular carcinoma

The aim of the present study was to evaluate the ability of seven staging systems to predict 3- and 6-month and cumulative survival rates of patients with advanced hepatitis B virus (HBV)-associated hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Data were collected from 220 patients with HBV-associated HCC who did not receive any standard anticancer treatment. Participants were patients at The Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University from September 2008 to June 2010. The participants were classified according to the Chinese University Prognostic Index (CUPI), the Cancer of the Liver Italian Program (CLIP), Japan Integrated Staging (JIS), China Integrated Score (CIS) systems, Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC), Okuda and tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) staging systems at the time of diagnosis and during patient follow-up. The sensitivity and specificity of the predictive value of each staging system for 3- and 6-month mortality were analyzed by relative operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis with a non-parametric test being used to compare the area under curve (AUC) of the ROC curves. In addition, log-rank tests and Kaplan-Meier estimator survival curves were applied to compare the overall survival rates of the patients with HCC defined as advanced using the various staging systems, and the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and likelihood ratio tests (LRTs) were used to evaluate the predictive value for overall survival in patients with advanced HCC. Using univariate and multivariate Cox's model analyses, the factors predictive of survival were also identified. A total of 220 patients with HBV-associated HCC were analyzed. Independent prognostic factors identified by multivariate analyses included tumor size, α-fetoprotein levels, blood urea nitrogen levels, the presence or absence of portal vein thrombus, Child-Pugh score and neutrophil count. When predicting 3-month survival, the AUCs of CLIP, CIS, CUPI, Okuda, TNM, JIS and BCLC were 0.806, 0.772, 0.751, 0.731, 0.643, 0.754 and 0.622, respectively. When predicting 6-month survival, the AUCs of CLIP, CIS, CUPI, Okuda, TNM, JIS and BCLC were 0.828, 0.729, 0.717, 0.692, 0.664, 0.746 and 0.575, respectively. For 3-month mortality, the prognostic value of CLIP ranked highest, followed by CIS; for 6-month mortality, the prognostic value of CLIP also ranked highest, followed by JIS. No significant difference between the AUCs of CLIP and CIS (P>0.05) in their predictive value for 3-month mortality was observed. The AUC of CLIP was significantly higher compared with that of the other staging systems (P<0.05) for predicting 6-month mortality. The χ2 values from the LRTs of CLIP, CIS, CUPI, Okuda, TNM, JIS and BCLC were 75.6, 48.4, 46.7, 36.0, 21.0, 46.8 and 7.24, respectively. The AIC values of CLIP, CIS, CUPI, Okuda, TNM, JIS and BCLC were 1601.5, 1632.3, 1629.9, 1641.1, 1654.8, 1627.4 and 1671.1, respectively. CLIP exhibited the highest χ2 value and lowest AIC value, indicating that CLIP has the highest predictive value of cumulative survival rate. In the selected patients of the present study, CLIP was the staging system best able to predict 3- and 6-month and overall survival rates. CIS ranked second in predicting 3-month mortality.

Prognostic Nomogram for Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma Treated with FOLFOX 4

Background:

The Oxaliplatin plus 5-Fluorouracil /Leucovorin (FOLFOX4) regimen have been approved by Chinese Food and Drug Administration (CFDA), and covered by health insurance for patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in China. However, the efficacy of FOLFOX4 for HCC patients is still under debate. In this study, we aimed to establish a nomogram to identify HCC patients who might benefit from FOLFOX4 chemotherapy base on individual profile.

Methods:

A total of 184 patients from the EACH study who were treated with FOLFOX4 were included in this analysis. Backward Cox proportional hazards regression combined with clinical experience was used to select variables for construction of the nomogram. The nomogram performance was assessed in terms of discrimination and calibration. The results were validated using bootstrap resampling.

Results:

Six variables were included in the prognostic models based on their clinical relevance: age, maximum tumor diameter, lymph node status, aspartate aminotransferase (AST), total bilirubin (TBIL) and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP). The calibration curve showed that the predicted survival probabilities closely matched the actual observations. The C-index of the model was 0.75 (95% CI:0.71-0.80). This value was significantly superior to the one for the following staging systems: BCLC (0.67, P=0.004), CUPI (0.66, P<0.001), AJCC seventh edition (0.63, P=0.002), GRETCH (0.63, P<0.001).

Conclusions:

The proposed nomogram showed accurate prognostic prediction for 6-month overall survival of patients treated with FOLFOX4 and could be useful for clinicians counseling patients and making treatment decisions.

Comparison of hepatocellular carcinoma in Eastern versus Western populations

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a heterogeneous disease that remains highly prevalent in many Asian countries and is the second most common cause of cancer-related mortality worldwide. Significant differences exist between Eastern and Western populations on many key aspects of HCC, contributing to the potential different treatment outcomes and challenges of clinical trial design and data interpretation. In this review, the authors compare HCC in Asia versus the West and highlight 1) differences in terms of epidemiology and trends and their correlation with etiology, 2) differences in genetics and how they relate to underlying etiology, 3) differences in treatment approaches based on existing guidelines and consensus statements, and 4) differences in clinical outcomes for Asian versus non-Asian patients with HCC in clinical trials and the implications for future clinical trial design. Cancer 2016;122:3430-3446. © 2016 American Cancer Society.

Prediction and prophylaxis of hepatocellular carcinoma occurrence and postoperative recurrence in chronic hepatitis B virus-infected subjects

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most common and highly fatal malignancies worldwide. Chronic infection with hepatitis B virus (HBV) is a major cause of HCC. High HBV replication rate and related non-resolving inflammation are the major risk factors of HCC occurrence and postoperative recurrence. Early prophylactic options are effective in reducing HCC occurrence and improving survival. Therefore, it is important to identify HBV-infected patients who are at a higher risk of developing HCC and HBV-HCC patients who are more likely to relapse after surgery, thus providing them with more precise prophylactic strategies. Several prediction models of HCC occurrence have been constructed, with satisfactory predictive accuracy and discriminatory ability. However, there is a lack of consensus for their clinical implementation. Several staging systems have been proposed for HCC prognosis. However, the accuracy of these staging systems based on demographic characteristics and clinical measurements needs to be further improved, possibly by systematically incorporating viral and inflammatory factors. Since antiviral treatments are effective in promoting liver function reserve, reducing HCC occurrence and prolonging postoperative survival in some HBV-infected subjects, it is very important to identify subgroups of HBV-infected patients who would most benefit from antiviral treatment.

Usefulness of staging systems and prognostic scores for hepatocellular carcinoma treatments

Therapeutic management of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is quite complex owing to the underlying cirrhosis and portal vein hypertension. Different scores or classification systems based on liver function and tumoral stages have been published in the recent years. If none of them is currently “universally” recognized, the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) staging system has become the reference classification system in Western countries. Based on a robust treatment algorithm associated with stage stratification, it relies on a high level of evidence. However, BCLC stage B and C HCC include a broad spectrum of tumors but are only matched with a single therapeutic option. Some experts have thus suggested to extend the indications for surgery or for transarterial chemoembolization. In clinical practice, many patients are already treated beyond the scope of recommendations. Additional alternative prognostic scores that could be applied to any therapeutic modality have been recently proposed. They could represent complementary tools to the BCLC staging system and improve the stratification of HCC patients enrolled in clinical trials, as illustrated by the NIACE score. Prospective studies are needed to compare these scores and refine their role in the decision making process.

Prognosis of advanced hepatocellular carcinoma: a new stratification of Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage C: results from a French multicenter study

BACKGROUND

Advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) includes a wide spectrum of tumors and patients' prognosis after treatment is highly variable. Moreover, therapeutic options based on the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) staging system algorithm are restricted to one systemic therapy.

AIM OF THE STUDY

To refine the stratification among BCLC C HCC patients by establishing a new simple prognostic score.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A regression model based on a BCLC stage C population and validated with an external cohort of BCLC C HCC patients defined the score. It was therefore validated among three external cohorts of BCLC C HCC patients treated with sorafenib.

RESULTS

Five variables had independent prognostic values: the number of nodules, the infiltrating nature of the HCC, α-fetoprotein serum level, Child-Pugh score, and Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Performance Status grade. They were integrated into a new score named NIACE ranging from 0 to 7, well correlated with survival. With the use of one threshold value, this score enables defining of two populations with different survivals among BCLC C patients and specifically among those treated with sorafenib.

CONCLUSION

The NIACE score defines different prognostic subgroups after palliative treatment of HCC. It could be an additional tool for BCLC C HCC before inclusion in clinical trials or for the management of patients. These results must be validated in a prospective study.

Factors affecting the recurrence and survival of hepatocellular carcinoma after hepatectomy: a retrospective study of 601 Chinese patients

OBJECTIVE

Indications for resection of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remain controversial. This study aimed to identify prognostic factors that affect overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) in patients with HCC after hepatectomy.

METHODS

From 2004 to 2010, 601 patients with HCC who underwent resection were enrolled. Factors stratified into the host, biochemical, surgical treatment and tumor-related features in terms of recurrence and overall survival were analyzed. Prognostic factors were evaluated by univariate and multivariate analyses, with Kaplan-Meier survival analyses and Cox proportional hazard model.

RESULTS

The overall survival rates of 1-, 3- and 5- year were 79, 62, and 54 %, and the corresponding DFS rates were 51, 38 and 31 %, respectively. In a multivariate analysis, Child-Pugh, serum AFP level, ALT level, time for hepatic resection, tumor differentiation, maximum size of tumors, local necrosis, portal vein tumor thrombus, and TNM Stage were correlated significantly with patients' OS. Gender (P = 0.046), cigarette smoking (P = 0.007), serum AFP level (P = 0.001), GGT level (P = 0.002), maximum size of tumors (P = 0.009), liver cirrhosis (P = 0.025), portal vein tumor thrombus (P = 0.022), microvascular tumor thrombus (P = 0.007) and TNM Stage (P = 0.001) were significantly affected DFS.

CONCLUSION

Preoperative AFP level, maximum size of tumors, portal vein tumor thrombus and TNM Stage were revealed as important prognostic factors for OS and DFS through follow-up of a relatively large cohort of Chinese HCC patients.

The Kings Score refines prognostic prediction in hepatocellular carcinoma: a novel application

BACKGROUND & AIMS

There are a number of prognostic scores in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), none of which is optimal in predicting overall survival (OS) in the individual patient, particularly in intermediate stage disease, where patients are not surgically treatable but may qualify for a wide range of palliative interventions. We evaluated the prognostic role of a biochemical algorithm, the Kings Score (KS), in the palliative setting of care.

METHODS

We used the algorithm [age x AST x INR]/platelet count to derive the KS. Full clinical data including Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage were studied in a training set of 97 patients from the UK. Independent predictors of survival identified in multivariate analysis were validated in an independent cohort of 766 patients from Japan and Italy.

RESULTS

In both training and validation sets, KS was confirmed as an independent predictor of OS (P < 0.01). Ad-hoc subgroup analysis revealed the KS to be prognostic in the palliative setting, being able to subclassify patients presenting with intermediate and advanced disease according to BCLC criteria (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

The KS integrates into the BCLC system to improve prognostic substratification in the palliative setting of care. The KS may help reducing disease heterogeneity and refine treatment allocation in intermediate-advanced HCC.

Prognostic Value of the Modified Glasgow Prognostic Score in Patients Undergoing Radical Surgery for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

There is increasing and consistent evidence concerning the association of systemic inflammation and poor outcome in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The aim of this study was to identify a superior inflammation-based prognostic scoring system for patients with HCC undergoing hepatectomy.We analyzed two independent cohorts of a total of 723 patients with HCC who underwent radical surgery between 2010 and 2012. The prognostic value of the inflammation scores, including the Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS), modified GPS (mGPS), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, platelet lymphocyte ratio, prognostic index, and prognostic nutritional index, as well as the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer and Cancer of the Liver Italian Program staging systems was analyzed in a test cohort of 367 patients and validated in a validation cohort of 356 patients.A high score with the mGPS was associated with large tumor size, vascular invasion, and advanced clinical stage. Multivariate analysis showed that the mGPS was independently associated with overall survival and disease-free survival, and had a higher area under the curve value in comparison with other inflammation-based scores.The results of this study demonstrated that the mGPS is an independent marker of poor prognosis in patients with resectable HCC and is superior to other inflammation-based scores.

Recurrence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma With Epithelial-Mesenchymal Transition After Spontaneous Regression: A Case Report

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most malignant cancers and ranks as the third leading cause of cancer-related death in the world. However, some patients with untreated HCC can experience spontaneous regression, a rare phenomenon that has been observed in various malignancies. Here, we report a unique case with untreated HCC, who first underwent a spontaneous cancer regression after the spontaneous clearing of chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection from the liver as evidenced by hepatitis B virus surface antigen (HBsAg) seroconversion; then developed the recurrent HCC with epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT) after 14 years. We hypothesized that a strengthened immune system in response to HBV infection may have led to immune-mediated spontaneous cancer regression. The later recurrence of HCC may suggest the host's immune system was no longer able to contain HCC since aging and other chronic diseases may have significantly weakened the immune surveillance.

Current management of hepatocellular carcinoma: an Eastern perspective

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the leading causes of cancer death, especially in Eastern areas. With advancements in diagnosis and treatment modalities for HCC, the survival and prognosis of HCC patients are improving. However, treatment patterns are not uniform between areas despite efforts to promote a common protocol. Although many hepatologists in Asian countries may adopt the principles of the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer staging system, they are also independently making an effort to expand the indications of each treatment and to combine therapies for better outcomes. Several expanded criteria for liver transplantation in HCC have been developed in Asian countries. Living donor liver transplantation is much more commonly performed in these countries than deceased donor liver transplantation, and it may be preceded by other treatments such as the down-staging of tumors. Local ablation therapies are often combined with transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) and the outcome is comparable to that of surgical resection. The indications of TACE are expanding, and there are new types of transarterial therapies. Although data on drug-eluting beads, TACE, and radioembolization in Asian countries are still relatively sparse compared with Western countries, these methods are gradually gaining popularity because of better tolerability and the possibility of improved response rates. Hepatic arterial infusion chemotherapy and radiotherapy are not included in Western guidelines, but are currently being used actively in several Asian countries. For more advanced HCCs, appropriate combinations of TACE, radiotherapy, and sorafenib can be considered, and emerging data indicate improved outcomes of combination therapies compared with single therapies. To include these paradigm shifts into newer treatment guidelines, more studies may be needed, but they are certainly in progress.

Evaluation of total hepatocellular cancer lifespan, including both clinically evident and preclinical development, using combined network phenotyping strategy and fisher information analysis

We previously showed that for hepatocellular cancer (HCC) prognostication, disease parameters need to be considered within a total personal clinical context. This requires preserving the coherence of data values, observed simultaneously for each patient during baseline diagnostic evaluation. Application of the Network Phenotyping Strategy (NPS) provided quantitative descriptors of these patient coherences. Combination of these descriptors with Fisher information about the patient tumor mass and the histogram of the tumor masses in the whole cohort permitted estimation of the time from disease onset until clinical diagnosis (t(baseline)). We found faster growth of smaller tumors having total masses<70 (80% of cohort) which involved about three times more interacting cellular processes than were observed for slower growing larger tumors (20% of cohort) with total masses>70. Combining the clinical survival and t(baseline) normalized all HCC patients to a common 1,045 days of mean total disease duration (t(baseline) plus post diagnosis survival). We also found a simple relationship between the baseline clinical status, t(baseline), and survival. Every difference between individual patient baseline clinical profiles and special coherent clinical status (HL1) reduced the above common overall survival (OVS) by 65 days. In summary, we showed that HCC patients with any given tumor can best have their tumor biology understood, when account is taken of the total clinical and liver contexts, and with knowing the point in the tumor history when an HCC diagnosis is made. This ability to compute the t(baseline) from standard clinical data brings us closer to calculating survival from diagnosis of individual HCC patients.

Staging systems for hepatocellular carcinoma: Current status and future perspectives

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a major health concern worldwide and the third cause of cancer-related death. Despite advances in treatment as well as careful surveillance programs, the mortality rates in most countries are very high. In contrast to other cancers, the prognosis and treatment of HCC depend on the tumor burden in addition to patient’s underlying liver disease and liver functional reserve. Moreover, there is considerable geographic and institutional variation in both risk factors attributable to the underlying liver diseases and the management of HCC. Therefore, although many staging and/or scoring systems have been proposed, there is currently no globally accepted system for HCC due to the extreme heterogeneity of the disease. The aim of this review is to focus on currently available staging systems as well as those newly reported in the literatures since 2012. Moreover, we describe problems with currently available staging systems and attempts to modify and/or add variables to existing staging systems.

Pretreatment neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio: an independent predictor of survival in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) has been shown to be associated with prognosis in various types of cancer. We evaluated pretreatment NLR as a predictor of poor prognosis in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and we compared the prognostic value of NLR with other prognostic scores.We retrospectively analyzed 825 patients diagnosed with HCC between October 2008 and May 2012. Baseline data, including the NLR and the Child-Pugh class or Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score, were recorded before treatment. The relationships between overall survival (OS) and the study variables were assessed using univariate and multivariate analyses and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. The prognostic value of NLR was assessed using a Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and compared with that of the Barcelona-Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) and Tumor, Node, Metastasis (TNM) staging.The NLR, γ-glutamyltranspeptidase, α-fetoprotein ≥ 400 ng/mL, tumor number ≥ 3, tumor size ≥ 5 cm, lymph node metastasis, portal vein involvement, and Child-Pugh class were significantly associated with OS. The NLR demonstrated the strongest prognostic value (area under ROC curve = 0.811). An NLR ≥ 2.7 was a significant predictor of poor OS (P < 0.0001), and the survival period of patients with an NLR ≥ 2.7 decreased with more advanced BCLC and TNM stage.Pretreatment NLR is a useful prognostic biomarker in HCC patients. The prognostic value of NLR ≥ 2.7 is superior to that of MELD stage or Child-Pugh class, and correlates with that of BCLC and TNM staging scores.

Reduced red blood cell count predicts poor survival after surgery in patients with primary liver cancer

Currently, the optimal therapy of primary liver cancer (PLC) remains to be hepatic resection. For better management of the patients, we evaluated the prognostic predicting value of red blood cell (RBC) count, a routine laboratory parameter, on the long-term survival of patients who underwent surgical treatment. Clinical and laboratory data of 758 patients, who underwent surgical hepatic resection, were retrospectively studied by χ2 tests and logistic regression. All patients were enrolled at Henan Cancer Hospital, Zhengzhou, China, from February 2009 to July 2013, and none of them received any other treatments before surgery. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox proportional hazard models were used to examine the influence of RBC counts on patients' survival. The Cox univariate and multivariate analyses showed that preoperative RBC count was an independent risk factor of poor prognosis after surgical treatment. The Kaplan-Meier curves showed that the overall survival (OS) of patients without reduced preoperative RBC counts was significantly better than those patients with reduced preoperative RBC counts (P < 0.001). Concordantly, compared with the patients with either reduced preoperative and/or postoperative RBC counts, patients without reduced RBC counts preferred to be low Child-Pugh grades (P = 0.0065), which implies a better hepatic function. In addition, low RBC count was found to be significantly associated with patients of female (P = 0.003), younger age (P =  < 0.001), and with higher AST/ALT ratio (P = 0.005). This study revealed that patients with preoperative RBC counts lower than normal had worse OS rates than those without reduced preoperative RBC counts, perhaps due to the significant correlation of reduced preoperative RBC count to patients' worse Child-Pugh grade that reflect the loss of liver functions.