Optimising assessments of the epidemiological impact in The Netherlands of paediatric immunisation with 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine using dynamic transmission modelling

The incremental burden of invasive pneumococcal disease associated with a decline in childhood vaccination using a dynamic transmission model in Japan: A secondary impact of COVID-19

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has disrupted childhood vaccinations, including pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV). Evaluating the possible impact on the invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) incidence associated with a decline in childhood pneumococcal vaccination is important to advocate the PCV programs. Using a deterministic, dynamic transmission model, the differential incidence and burden of IPD in children younger than 5 years in Japan were estimated between the rapid vaccination recovery (January 2021) and the delayed vaccination recovery (April 2022) scenarios for the next 10 years. In our model, the IPD incidence was reduced from 11.9/100,000 in 2019 to 6.3/100,000 in 2020, caused by a reduced transmission rate due to the COVID-19 mitigation measures. Assuming a recovery in the transmission rate in 2022 April, the incidence of IPD was estimated to increase with maximal incidence of 12.1 and 13.1/100,000 children under 5 years in the rapid and the delayed vaccination recovery scenarios. The difference in the total IPD incidence between these two scenarios was primarily driven by vaccine serotypes IPD incidence. The difference of incidence was not observed between the two scenarios after 2025. The persistent decline in childhood pneumococcal vaccination rates due to the impact of COVID-19 might lead to an increased IPD incidence and an incremental disease burden.

Exploring the role of competition induced by non-vaccine serotypes for herd protection following pneumococcal vaccination

The competitive pressure from non-vaccine serotypes may have helped pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) to limit vaccine-type (VT) serotype prevalence. We aimed to investigate if, consequently, the indirect protection of vaccines targeting most pneumococcal serotypes could fall short of the profound effects of current formulations. We compared three previously described pneumococcal models harmonized to simulate 20 serotypes with a combined pre-vaccination prevalence in children younger than 5-years-old of 40%. We simulated vaccines of increasing valency by adding serotypes in order of their competitiveness and explored their ability to reduce VT carriage by 95% within 10 years after introduction. All models predicted that additional valency will reduce indirect vaccine effects and hence the overall vaccine impact on carriage both in children and adults. Consequently, the minimal effective coverage (efficacy against carriage×vaccine coverage) needed to eliminate VT carriage increased with increasing valency. One model predicted this effect to be modest, while the other two predicted that high-valency vaccines may struggle to eliminate VT pneumococci unless vaccine efficacy against carriage can be substantially improved. Similar results were obtained when settings of higher transmission intensity and different PCV formulations were explored. Failure to eliminate carriage as a result of increased valency could lead to overall decreased impact of vaccination if the disease burden caused by the added serotypes is low. Hence, a comparison of vaccine formulations of varying valency, and pan-valent formulations in particular, should consider the invasiveness of targeted serotypes, as well as efficacy against carriage.

A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of the 10-Valent Pneumococcal Non-Typeable Haemophilus influenzae Protein D Conjugate Vaccine (PHiD-CV) Compared to the 13-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine (PCV13) for Universal Mass Vaccination Implementation in New Zealand

OBJECTIVES

Invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD), pneumonia and acute otitis media (AOM) still represent a significant medical burden in children < 5 years of age in New Zealand (NZ), with marked disparities across socio-economic and ethnic groups. This cost-effectiveness evaluation aims to compare the potential impact of two childhood universal immunisation strategies: vaccination with a 3 + 1 schedule of the 10-valent pneumococcal non-typeable Haemophilus influenzae protein D conjugate vaccine (PHiD-CV, Synflorix, GSK) and the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13, Prevenar 13, Pfizer).

METHODS

A static Markov-process cohort model was used to simulate the epidemiological and economic burden of pneumococcal diseases on a single-birth cohort over its lifetime. Costs and outcomes were discounted annually at 3.5%. Epidemiological and cost inputs were extracted from the most recently available NZ data, or derived from the most relevant reference countries' sources. The most updated evidence on the efficacies of the corresponding vaccines were used, particularly the significant effectiveness for PHiD-CV against IPD caused by serotype 19A.

RESULTS

The model estimated that both vaccines have a broadly comparable impact on IPD-related diseases and pneumonia. Due to the additional benefits possible through broader impact on AOM, PHiD-CV is estimated to potentially provide additional discounted cost offsets of approximately NZD 0.8 million over the lifetime of the birth cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

To ensure health equity in children, given the substantial burden of pneumonia and AOM, decision-makers should also take into account the impact of PCVs on these diseases for decisions relating to routine infant immunization.

GSK STUDY IDENTIFIER

HO-15-16775.

Bacteremia in Children 3 to 36 Months Old After Introduction of Conjugated Pneumococcal Vaccines

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

In June 2010, Kaiser Permanente Northern California replaced all 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) vaccines with the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13). Our objectives were to compare the incidence of bacteremia in children 3 to 36 months old by 3 time periods: pre-PCV7, post-PCV7/pre-PCV13, and post-PCV13.

METHODS

We designed a retrospective review of the electronic medical records of all blood cultures collected on children 3 to 36 months old at Kaiser Permanente Northern California from September 1, 1998 to August 31, 2014 in outpatient clinics, in emergency departments, and in the first 24 hours of hospitalization.

RESULTS

During the study period, 57 733 blood cultures were collected in the population of children 3 to 36 months old. Implementation of routine immunization with the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine resulted in a 95.3% reduction of Streptococcus pneumoniae bacteremia, decreasing from 74.5 to 10 to 3.5 per 100 000 children per year by the post-PCV13 period. As pneumococcal rates decreased, Escherichia coli, Salmonella spp, and Staphylococcus aureus caused 77% of bacteremia. Seventy-six percent of all bacteremia in the post-PCV13 period occurred with a source.

CONCLUSIONS

In the United States, routine immunizations have made bacteremia in the previously healthy toddler a rare event. As the incidence of pneumococcal bacteremia has decreased, E coli, Salmonella spp, and S aureus have increased in relative importance. New guidelines are needed to approach the previously healthy febrile toddler in the outpatient setting.