Geriatric Fever Score: a new decision rule for geriatric care

Predicting mortality in geriatric patients with fever in the emergency departments: a prospective validation study

OBJECTIVE

Emergency physicians are always faced with the challenge of choosing the appropriate disposition for elderly patients in order to ensure an acceptable care plan and effective use of resources. A clinical decision rule, Geriatric Fever Score (GFS) has been proposed but not validated to help ED physicians with decision-making. This rule employs leukocytosis, severe coma, and thrombocytopenia as predictors of 30-day mortality. Through our study determines the performance of this clinical prediction rule in a prospective study in a setting different from where it was developed.

METHOD AND MATERIALS

In this prospective cohort study in a 1200-bed tertiary care, patients older than 65 years old who visited the ED with fever were enrolled. All elements of the rule were collected and the total score was calculated for each patient. Patients were also categorized as low risk (score 0-1) or high risk (score ≥ 2). Thirty-day follow-up was performed to determine the patient outcome (survival or mortality).

RESULTS

A total of 296 patients were included in our final analysis. The mortality rate was 33.1% for patients with a Score of 0, 42.1% for a score of 1, 57.1% for a score of 2, and 100% for a score of 3. When divided into two risk groups, patients' mortality rates were as follows: low risk group 37.9% and high-risk group 40.5%.

CONCLUSION

Our study showed that elderly patients who present to ED with fever and have a score of 2 or higher on the Geriatric Fever Score are at higher risk of mortality at 30 days.

Comparison of Manchester, qSOFA, emergency severity index, and national early warning scores for prognostic estimation and effective triage system in geriatric patients

BACKGROUND

Triage refers to classifying and prioritizing patients based on the severity of their injuries or illnesses in the health care setting. The increasing number of elderly patients seeking care in emergency departments (EDs) highlights the need for special attention to the unique needs of this patient population.

AIM

We aimed to compare the qSOFA, Emergency Severity Index (ESI), National Early Warning Score (NEWS), and Manchester Triage System (MTS) scores to assist ED physicians in assessing the severity of elderly patients' clinical conditions and triaging them appropriately.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study included 1066 patients aged 65 and over who presented to our ED as outpatients or by ambulance between September 1, 2022, and August 30, 2023. Scoring systems at the time of admission to the ED were recorded separately for outpatients and arriving by ambulance.

RESULTS

According to the qSOFA, patients with a score of 0 were 0.976 times less likely to arrive by ambulance compared to those scoring 1 and above (OR = 0.976, p = .934). According to the NEWS, patients in the moderate-risk category were 0.447 times less likely to arrive by ambulance (OR = 0.447, p = .054). According to the ESI score, patients requiring high resource use with normal vital signs were 146.758 times more likely to arrive by ambulance (OR = 146.758, p = .001).

CONCLUSION

Significant differences in patients' methods of presentation to the ED were observed based on the MTS, qSOFA, NEWS, and ESI scores.

Fever and infections in surgical intensive care: an American Association for the Surgery of Trauma Critical Care Committee clinical consensus document

The evaluation and workup of fever and the use of antibiotics to treat infections is part of daily practice in the surgical intensive care unit (ICU). Fever can be infectious or non-infectious; it is important to distinguish between the two entities wherever possible. The evidence is growing for shortening the duration of antibiotic treatment of common infections. The purpose of this clinical consensus document, created by the American Association for the Surgery of Trauma Critical Care Committee, is to synthesize the available evidence, and to provide practical recommendations. We discuss the evaluation of fever, the indications to obtain cultures including urine, blood, and respiratory specimens for diagnosis of infections, the use of procalcitonin, and the decision to initiate empiric antibiotics. We then describe the treatment of common infections, specifically ventilator-associated pneumonia, catheter-associated urinary infection, catheter-related bloodstream infection, bacteremia, surgical site infection, intra-abdominal infection, ventriculitis, and necrotizing soft tissue infection.

Using neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio to predict discharge among geriatric patients with influenza infection in emergency department

The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) is used to predict the prognosis of various diseases, such as coronavirus disease 2019, community-acquired pneumonia, bacteremia, and endocarditis. However, NLR has never been reported to predict patient discharge in geriatric patients with influenza infection. This retrospective case-control study enrolled geriatric patients (≥65 years) with influenza virus infection who visited the emergency department of a medical center between January 01, 2010 and December 31, 2015. Demographic data, vital signs, past histories, influenza subtypes, outcomes, and disposition were analyzed. The optimal NLR cut-off value to predict patient discharge was determined using the Youden index. We also evaluated the accuracy of NLR in predicting patient discharge using logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic analysis. The study included 409 geriatric patients in the emergency department with a mean age of 79.5 years and an approximately equal sex ratio. NLR was significantly lower in the discharged group than in the nondischarged group (5.8 ± 3.7 vs 9.7 ± 8.4). Logistic regression revealed that patients with NLR ≤ 6.5 predicted discharge with an odds ratio of 3.62. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test was calculated as 0.36, and the adjusted area under the receiver operating characteristic was 0.75. The negative predictive value of NLR ≤ 6.5, to predict patient discharge, was 91.8%. NLR ≤ 6.5 is a simple and easy-to-obtain laboratory tool to guide the physicians to discharge geriatric patients with influenza infection in the crowded emergency department.

National Early Warning Score for predicting intensive care unit admission among elderly patients with influenza infections in the emergency department: an effective disposition tool during the influenza season

OBJECTIVE

During the influenza epidemic season, the fragile elderlies are not only susceptible to influenza infections, but are also more likely to develop severe symptoms and syndromes. Such circumstances may pose a significant burden to the medical resources especially in the emergency department (ED). Disposition of the elderly patients with influenza infections to either the ward or intensive care unit (ICU) accurately is therefore a crucial issue.

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Elderly patients (≥65 years) with influenza visiting the ED of a medical centre between 1 January 2010 and 31 December 2015.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Demographic data, vital signs, medical history, subtype of influenza, national early warning score (NEWS) and outcomes (mortality) were analysed. We investigated the ability of NEWS to predict ICU admission via logistic regression and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis.

RESULTS

We included 409 geriatric patients in the ED with a mean age of 79.5 years and approximately equal sex ratio. The mean NEWS ±SD was 3.4±2.9, and NEWS ≥8 was reported in 11.0% of the total patients. Logistic regression revealed that NEWS ≥8 predicted ICU admission with an OR of 5.37 (95% CI 2.61 to 11.04). The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test was calculated as 0.95, and the adjusted area under the ROC was 0.72. An NEWS ≥8 is associated with ICU-admission and may help to triage elderly patients with influenza infections during the influenza epidemic season.

CONCLUSION

The high specificity of NEWS ≥8 to predict ICU admission in elderly patients with influenza infection during the epidemic season may avoid unnecessary ICU admissions and ensure proper medical resource allocation.

Prevalence of Geriatric Syndromes and the Need for Hospice Care in Older Patients of the Emergency Department: A Study in an Asian Medical Center

Background

The prevalence of geriatric syndromes and the need for hospice care in the emergency department (ED) in Asian populations remain unclear. This study was conducted to fill the data gap.

Methods

Using a newly developed emergency geriatric assessment (EGA), we investigated the prevalence of geriatric syndromes and the need for hospice care in older ED patients of a tertiary medical center between September 1, 2016, and January 31, 2017.

Results

We recruited a total of 693 patients with a mean age of 78.0 years (standard deviation 8.2 years), comprising 46.6% of females. According to age subgroups, 37.4% of patients were aged 65-74 years, 37.4% were aged 75-84 years, and 25.2% were aged ≥85 years. The prevalence rates of geriatric syndromes were as follows: delirium (11.4%), depression (23.4%), dementia (43.1%), deterioration of activities of daily living (ADL) for <1 year (29.4%), vision impairment (22.2%), hearing impairment (23.8%), sleep disturbance (13.1%), any fall in <1 year (21.8%), polypharmacy (28.7%), pain (35.1%), pressure ulcer (5.6%), incontinence or retention (29.6%), indwelling device or physical restrain (21.6%), nutrition problem (35.7%), frequent use of medical resources (50.1%), lack of advance care planning (84.0%), caregiver problem (4.6%), socioeconomic problem (5.5%), and need for family meeting (6.2%). The need for hospice care was 11.9%. Most geriatric syndromes increased with advancing age except depression, sleep disturbance, polypharmacy, pain, nutrition problem, lack of advance care planning, caregiver problem, and socioeconomic problem.

Conclusion

Geriatric syndromes and the need for hospice care were common in the older ED patients. Further studies about subsequent intervention for improving geriatric care are needed.

Chronic pain and use of analgesics in the elderly: a nationwide population-based study

INTRODUCTION

Chronic pain may cause many comorbidities in the elderly; however, nationwide data about this issue remain insufficient. We conducted this study to address the data gap.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

We identified geriatric participants (≥ 65 years) with chronic pain between 2000 and 2013 from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. The causes of chronic pain and use of analgesics between two sexes and among three age subgroups were compared.

RESULTS

A total of 21,018 participants were identified with the mean age (standard deviation) of 72.7 years (5.6) and the female percentage of 50.8%. The prevalence of chronic pain in the elderly was 21.5%, and it was higher in the females than males. The proportions of each age subgroup were 65-74 (66.8%), 75-84 (29.4%), and ≥ 85 years (3.8%). Common causes of chronic pain were osteoarthritis (21.9%), spinal disorders (19.0%), peripheral vascular diseases (12.4%), and osteoporosis (11.4%). Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs were the most common medication, followed by acetaminophen and opioids. The most commonly used opioid was morphine. The use of opioids increased with age.

CONCLUSIONS

This study delineated the causes of chronic pain and use of analgesics in a geriatric population, which may help further studies about this issue in the future.

Long-term mortality in older adults with chronic pain: a nationwide population-based study in Taiwan

PURPOSE

This study was conducted to clarify the long-term mortality in the older population with chronic pain (CP), which is still unclear.

METHODS

We identified 17,568 older participants (aged ≥ 65 years) with CP and an identical number of comparison cohort without CP matched 1:1 by age and sex between 1996 and 2000 from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. Causes of CP, underlying comorbidities, living areas, and mortality were collected for analyses. The long-term mortality and the causes of mortality were compared between the two cohorts through follow-up since 2000 until 2015.

RESULTS

The mean age (± standard deviation) was 73.5 ± 5.7 years, and female participants comprised 55.1% in both cohorts. The most common causes of CP were osteoarthritis (24.2%), spinal disorders (22.4%), peripheral vascular diseases (14.0%), and osteoporosis (9.5%). Older participants with CP had an increased rate of long-term mortality compared to that among their counterparts without CP after adjusting for the underlying comorbidities and the causes of CP (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR]: 1.18; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.14-1.21). The increased mortality rate was observed even after the follow-up of 6 years (AHR 1.15; 95% CI 1.10-1.20). No significant difference was observed in the causes of mortality between the two cohorts. The most common cause of mortality was malignancy, followed by cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases.

CONCLUSIONS

Chronic pain was associated with an increased rate of long-term mortality in the older population. Early detection and intervention for treating CP are suggested for this population.

Validation of Decision Groups in Patients with Dengue Fever: A Study during 2015 Outbreak in Taiwan

The management of dengue fever (DF) has been suggested to be categorized into decision groups A, B, and C; however, its usefulness in predicting mortality is still unclear, and hence we conducted this study to clarify this issue. We conducted a study by recruiting 2,358 patients with DF from the 2015 outbreak in the Chi-Mei Medical Center. Demographic data, vital signs, clinical symptoms and signs, coexisting morbidities, laboratory data, decision groups categorized according to World Health Organization for clinical management of dengue in 2012, and 30-day mortality rates were included for analysis. The overall 30-day mortality rate was 1.4%. The 30-day mortality rates in decision groups A, B, and C were 0%, 0.5%, and 46.2%, respectively. Compared with Group A, there was a higher mortality risk in Group C (odds ratio [OR]: 1,480, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 195-11,200). The area under the curve of the variable of Group C was excellent (OR: 0.92, 95% CI: 0.85-0.99). The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value for predicting 30-day mortality in Group C were 88.2%, 98.5%, 46.2%, and 99.8%, respectively. This study showed that decision Group C has a good predictive value for 30-day mortality. Further studies including validation in other nations are warranted.

Utilization of systemic inflammatory response syndrome criteria in predicting mortality among geriatric patients with influenza in the emergency department

BACKGROUND

Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS) criteria are often used to evaluate the risk of sepsis and to identify in-hospital mortality among patients with suspected infection. However, utilization of the SIRS criteria in mortality prediction among geriatric patients with influenza in the emergency department (ED) remains unclear. Therefore, we conducted a research to delineate this issue.

METHODS

This is a retrospective case-control study including geriatric patients (age ≥ 65 years) with influenza, who presented to the ED of a medical center between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2015. Vital signs, past history, subtype of influenza, demographic data, and outcomes were collected from all patients and analyzed. We calculated the accuracy for predicting 30-days mortality using the SIRS criteria. We also performed covariate adjustment of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) via regression modeling.

RESULTS

We recruited a total of 409 geriatric patients in the ED, with mean age 79.5 years and an equal sex ratio. The mean SIRS criteria score was 1.9 ± 1.1. The result of a Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test was 0.34 for SIRS criteria. SIRS criteria score ≥ 3 showed better mortality prediction, with odds ratio (OR) 3.37 (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.05-10.73); SIRS score ≥ 2 showed no statistical significance, with p = 0.85 (OR, 1.15; 95% CI, 0.28-4.69). SIRS score ≥ 3 had acceptable 30-days mortality discrimination, with AUROC 0.77 (95% CI, 0.68-0.87) after adjustment. SIRS score ≥ 3 also had a notable negative predictive value of 0.97 (95% CI, 0.94-0.99).

CONCLUSION

The presence of a higher number of SIRS criteria (≥ 3) showed greater accuracy for predicting mortality among geriatric patients with influenza.

Quick-SOFA score to predict mortality among geriatric patients with influenza in the emergency department

The quick sequential organ failure assessment (qSOFA) score is widely used to assess the risk of sepsis and predict in-hospital mortality in patients with suspected infection. However, its ability to predict mortality among geriatric patients with influenza in the emergency department (ED) remains unclear. Therefore, this study was conducted to delineate this issue.A retrospective case-control study was conducted on geriatric patients (age ≥65 years) with influenza who visited the ED of a medical center between January 01, 2010, and December 31, 2015. Demographic data, vital signs, past histories, influenza subtypes, and treatment outcomes were included in the analysis. We assessed the accuracy of the qSOFA score in predicting 30-day mortality via logistic regression. Covariate adjustment of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) via regression modeling was performed too.In total, 409 geriatric ED patients with mean age of 79.5 years and nearly equal sex ratio were recruited. The mean qSOFA score was 0.55 ± 0.7. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test was 0.79 for qSOFA score. Patients with qSOFA score of ≥2 (odds ratio, 4.21; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.56-11.40) had increased in-hospital mortality. qSOFA score of ≥2 also had excellent in-hospital mortality discrimination with an adjusted AUROC of 0.81 (95% CI, 0.71-0.90). A qSOFA of ≥2 had prominent specificity of 0.89 (95% CI, 0.86-0.92).An increase in qSOFA score of 2 greatly predicts mortality in geriatric patients with influenza.

Geriatric influenza death (GID) score: a new tool for predicting mortality in older people with influenza in the emergency department

Although influenza may cause death in the geriatric population, the best method for predicting mortality in this population is still unclear. We retrospectively recruited older people (≥65 yr) with influenza visiting the emergency department (ED) of a medical center between January 1, 2010, and December 31, 2015. We performed univariate and multivariate logistic regression to identify independent mortality predictors and then developed a prediction score. Four hundred nine older ED patients with a nearly equal sex ratio were recruited. Five independent mortality predictors were identified: severe coma (Glasgow Coma Scale score ≤8), past histories of cancer and coronary artery disease, elevated C-reactive protein levels (>10 mg/dl), and bandemia (>10% band cells). We divided the patients into three mortality risk and disposition groups: (1) low risk (1.1%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.5-3.0%); (2) moderate risk (16.7%; 95% CI, 9.3-28.0%); and (3) high risk (40%; 95% CI, 19.8-64.2%). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit of the GID score were 0.86 and 0.578, respectively. The GID score is an efficient and simple tool for predicting mortality in older ED patients with influenza. Further studies are warranted to validate its use.

Shock index predicted mortality in geriatric patients with influenza in the emergency department

BACKGROUND

The shock index is a rapid and simple tool used to predict mortality in patients with acute illnesses including sepsis, multiple trauma, and postpartum hemorrhage. However, its ability to predict mortality in geriatric patients with influenza in the emergency department (ED) remains unclear. This study was conducted to clarify this issue.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective case-control study, recruiting geriatric patients (≥ 65 years) with influenza visiting the ED of a medical center between January 01, 2010 and December 31, 2015. Demographic data, vital signs, shock index, past histories, subtypes of influenza, and outcomes were included for the analysis. We investigated the association between shock index ≥1 and 30-day mortality.

RESULTS

In total, 409 geriatric ED patients with mean age of 79.5 years and nearly equal sex ratio were recruited. The mean shock index ± standard deviation was 0.7 ± 0.22 and shock index ≥1 was accounted for in 7.1% of the total patients. Logistic regression showed that shock index ≥1 predicted mortality (odds ratio: 6.80; 95% confidence interval: 2.39-19.39). The area under the receiver operating characteristic was 0.62 and the result of the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test was 0.23. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of a shock index ≥1 were 30.0%, 94.1%, 20.0%, and 96.4%.

CONCLUSIONS

A shock index ≥1 has a high specificity, negative predictive value, and good reliability to predict 30-day mortality in geriatric ED patients with influenza.

Predicting the mortality in geriatric patients with dengue fever

Geriatric patients have high mortality for dengue fever (DF); however, there is no adequate method to predict mortality in geriatric patients. Therefore, we conducted this study to develop a tool in an attempt to address this issue.We conducted a retrospective case-control study in a tertiary medical center during the DF outbreak in Taiwan in 2015. All the geriatric patients (aged ≥65 years) who visited the study hospital between September 1, 2015, and December 31, 2015, were recruited into this study. Variables included demographic data, vital signs, symptoms and signs, comorbidities, living status, laboratory data, and 30-day mortality. We investigated independent mortality predictors by univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis and then combined these predictors to predict the mortality.A total of 627 geriatric DF patients were recruited, with a mortality rate of 4.3% (27 deaths and 600 survivals). The following 4 independent mortality predictors were identified: severe coma [Glasgow Coma Scale: ≤8; adjusted odds ratio (AOR): 11.36; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.89-68.19], bedridden (AOR: 10.46; 95% CI: 1.58-69.16), severe hepatitis (aspartate aminotransferase >1000 U/L; AOR: 96.08; 95% CI: 14.11-654.40), and renal failure (serum creatinine >2 mg/dL; AOR: 6.03; 95% CI: 1.50-24.24). When we combined the predictors, we found that the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value for patients with 1 or more predictors were 70.37%, 88.17%, 21.11%, and 98.51%, respectively. For patients with 2 or more predictors, the respective values were 33.33%, 99.44%, 57.14%, and 98.51%.We developed a new method to help decision making. Among geriatric patients with none of the predictors, the survival rate was 98.51%, and among those with 2 or more predictors, the mortality rate was 57.14%. This method is simple and useful, especially in an outbreak.

Septic arthritis significantly increased the long-term mortality in geriatric patients

Background

The elderly are predisposed to septic arthritis (SA) because of the aging nature and increasing comorbidities. SA may in turn increase the long-term mortality in the geriatric patients; however, it remains unclear. We conducted this prospective nationwide population-based cohort study to clarify this issue.

Methods

Using Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD), we identified 1667 geriatric participants (≥ 65 years) with SA and 16,670 geriatric participants without SA matched at a ratio of 1:10 by age, sex, and index date between 1999 and 2010. A comparison of the long-term mortality between the two cohorts through follow-up until 2011 was performed.

Results

Geriatric participants with SA had a significantly increased mortality than those without SA [Adjusted hazard ratio (AHR): 1.49, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.34–1.66], particularly the old elderly (≥ 85 years, AHR: 2.12, 95% CI: 1.58–2.84) and males (AHR: 1.54, 95% CI: 1.33–1.79). These results were stated after adjustment for osteoarthritis, diabetes, gout, renal disease, liver disease, cancer, rheumatoid arthritis, systemic lupus erythematosus, alcoholism, and human immunodeficiency virus infection. The increased mortality risk was highest in the first month (AHR: 3.93, 95% CI: 2.94–5.25) and remained increased even after following up for 2–4 years (AHR: 1.30, 95% CI: 1.03–1.65). After Cox proportional hazard regression analysis, SA (AHR: 1.37, 95% CI: 1.20–1.56), older age (≥ 85 years, AHR: 1.79, 95% CI: 1.59–2.02, 75–84 years, AHR: 1.65, 95% CI: 1.53–1.78), male sex, diabetes, renal disease, liver disease, cancer, and gout were independent mortality predictors. There was no significant difference in the mortality for SA between upper limb affected and lower limb affected.

Conclusions

This study delineated that SA significantly increased the long-term mortality in geriatric participants. For the increasing aging population worldwide, strategies for the prevention and treatment of SA and concomitant control of comorbidities are very important.

A secondary analysis of atypical presentations of older patients with infection in the emergency department of a tertiary care hospital in Thailand

Background

Classic symptoms of illness are often absent in older adults, delaying diagnosis and management, and resulting in unfavorable outcomes.

Objectives

To determine the prevalence of atypical presentations by older Thai adults with infections in the emergency department (ED) of a tertiary care hospital, and to identify factors associated with atypical presentations in such patients.

Methods

We performed a secondary analysis of a retrospective cohort observational study of atypical presentations of patients aged ≥65 years in the ED using a subset of data first reported in the Archives of Gerontology and Geriatrics in 2015; 62:97-102.

Results

The prevalence of atypical presentations was 35% of those with infectious diseases (64 of 183 cases). Pneumonia was the most common (30%). We identified 4 associated risk factors: complicated urinary tract infection (UTI) (odds ratio (OR) 4.54; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.75,11. 78; P = 0.002), cancer (OR 2.64; 95% CI 1.07, 6.53; P = 0.04), dementia (OR 6.66; 95% CI 1.47, 30.11; P = 0.01), and pulse rate >90 beats/min (OR 2.06; 95% CI 1.01, 4.22; P = 0.04). Infective diarrhea was protective (OR 0.27; 95% CI 0.09, 0.8; P = 0.02).

Conclusions

Atypical presentations of infectious diseases by older Thai patients in the ED accounted for about one third of those with infectious disease. Associated risk factors were complicated UTI, cancer, dementia, and increased pulse rate. Older patients with these factors who have uncertain diagnoses should be considered for hospitalization because the absence of classic symptoms does not exclude life-threatening infections.