A new approach to reduce uncertainties in space radiation cancer risk predictions

Non-targeted effects and space radiation risks for astronauts on multiple International Space Station and lunar missions

Future space travel to the earth's moon or the planet Mars will likely lead to the selection of experienced International Space Station (ISS) or lunar crew persons for subsequent lunar or mars missions. Major concerns for space travel are galactic cosmic ray (GCR) risks of cancer and circulatory diseases. However large uncertainties in risk prediction occur due to the quantitative and qualitative differences in heavy ion microscopic energy deposition leading to differences in biological effects compared to low LET radiation. In addition, there are sparse radiobiology data and absence of epidemiology data for heavy ions and other high LET radiation. Non-targeted effects (NTEs) are found in radiobiology studies to increase the biological effectiveness of high LET radiation at low dose for cancer related endpoints. In this paper the most recent version of the NASA Space Cancer Risk model (NSCR-2022) is used to predict mission risks while considering NTEs in solid cancer risk predictions. I discuss predictions of space radiation risks of cancer and circulatory disease mortality for US Whites and US Asian-Pacific Islander (API) populations for 6-month ISS, 80-day lunar missions, and combined ISS-lunar mission. Model predictions suggest NTE increase cancer risks by about ∼2.3 fold over a model that ignores NTEs. US API are predicted to have a lower cancer risks of about 30% compared to US Whites. Cancer risks are slightly less than additive for multiple missions, which is due to the decease of risk with age of exposure and the increased competition with background risks as radiation risks increase. The inclusion of circulatory risks increases mortality estimates about 25% and 37% for females and males, respectively in the model ignoring NTEs, and 20% and 30% when NTEs are assumed to modify solid cancer risk. The predictions made here for combined ISS and lunar missions suggest risks are within risk limit recommendations by the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP) for such missions.

Interaction between astrocytes and neurons in simulated space radiation-induced CNS injury

PURPOSE

Astronauts exhibit neurological dysfunction during long-duration spaceflight, and the specific mechanisms may be closely related to the cumulative effects of these neurological injuries in the space radiation environment. Here, we investigated the interaction between astrocytes and neuronal cells exposed to simulated space radiation.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

we selected human astrocytes (U87 MG) and neuronal cells (SH-SY5Y) to establish an experimental model to explore the interaction between astrocytes and neuronal cells in the CNS under simulated space radiation environment and the role of exosomes in the interactions.

RESULTS

We found that γ-ray caused oxidative and inflammatory damage in human U87 MG and SH-SY5Y. The results of the conditioned medium transfer experiments showed that astrocytes exhibited a protective effect on neuronal cells, and neuronal cells influenced the activation of astrocytes in oxidative and inflammatory injury of CNS. We demonstrated that the number and size distribution of exosomes derived from U87 MG and SH-SY5Y cells were changed in response to H2O2, TNF-α or γ-ray treatment. Furthermore, we found that exosome derived from treated nerve cells influenced the cell viability and gene expression of untreated nerve cells, and the effect of exosomes was partly consistent with that of the conditioned medium.

CONCLUSION

Our findings demonstrated that astrocytes showed a protective effect on neuronal cells, and neuronal cells influenced the activation of astrocytes in oxidative and inflammatory damage of CNS induced by simulated space radiation. Exosomes played an essential role in the interaction between astrocytes and neuronal cells exposed to simulated space radiation.

Modeling of ionizing radiation-induced chromosome aberration and tumor prevalence based on two classes of DNA double-strand breaks clustering in chromatin domains

There has been some controversy over the use of radiobiological models when modeling the dose-response curves of ionizing radiation (IR)-induced chromosome aberration and tumor prevalence, as those curves usually show obvious non-targeted effects (NTEs) at low doses of high linear energy transfer (LET) radiation. The lack of understanding the contribution of NTEs to IR-induced carcinogenesis can lead to distinct deviations of relative biological effectiveness (RBE) estimations of carcinogenic potential, which are widely used in radiation risk assessment and radiation protection. In this work, based on the initial pattern of two classes of IR-induced DNA double-strand breaks (DSBs) clustering in chromatin domains and the subsequent incorrect repair processes, we proposed a novel radiobiological model to describe the dose-response curves of two carcinogenic-related endpoints within the same theoretical framework. The representative experimental data was used to verify the consistency and validity of the present model. The fitting results indicated that, compared with targeted effect (TE) and NTE models, the current model has better fitting ability when dealing with the experimental data of chromosome aberration and tumor prevalence induced by multiple types of IR with different LETs. Notably, the present model without introducing an NTE term was adequate to describe the dose-response curves of IR-induced chromosome aberration and tumor prevalence with NTEs in low-dose regions. Based on the fitting parameters, the LET-dependent RBE values were calculated for three given low doses. Our results showed that the RBE values predicted by the current model gradually decrease with the increase of doses for the endpoints of chromosome aberration and tumor prevalence. In addition, the calculated RBE was also compared with those evaluated from other models. These analyses show that the proposed model can be used as an alternative tool to well describe dose-response curves of multiple carcinogenic-related endpoints and effectively estimate RBE in low-dose regions.

Mouse genomic associations with in vitro sensitivity to simulated space radiation

Exposure to ionizing radiation is considered by NASA to be a major health hazard for deep space exploration missions. Ionizing radiation sensitivity is modulated by both genomic and environmental factors. Understanding their contributions is crucial for designing experiments in model organisms, evaluating the risk of deep space (i.e. high-linear energy transfer, or LET, particle) radiation exposure in astronauts, and also selecting therapeutic irradiation regimes for cancer patients. We identified single nucleotide polymorphisms in 15 strains of mice, including 10 collaborative cross model strains and 5 founder strains, associated with spontaneous and ionizing radiation-induced in vitro DNA damage quantified based on immunofluorescent tumor protein p53 binding protein (53BP1) positive nuclear foci. Statistical analysis suggested an association with pathways primarily related to cellular signaling, metabolism, tumorigenesis and nervous system damage. We observed different genomic associations in early (4 and 8 h) responses to different LET radiation, while later (24 hour) DNA damage responses showed a stronger overlap across all LETs. Furthermore, a subset of pathways was associated with spontaneous DNA damage, suggesting 53BP1 positive foci as a potential biomarker for DNA integrity in mouse models. Our results suggest several mouse strains as new models to further study the impact of ionizing radiation and validate the identified genetic loci. We also highlight the importance of future human in vitro studies to refine the association of genes and pathways with the DNA damage response to ionizing radiation and identify targets for space travel countermeasures.

A Mission to Mars: Prediction of GCR Doses and Comparison with Astronaut Dose Limits

Long-term human space missions such as a future journey to Mars could be characterized by several hazards, among which radiation is one the highest-priority problems for astronaut health. In this work, exploiting a pre-existing interface between the BIANCA biophysical model and the FLUKA Monte Carlo transport code, a study was performed to calculate astronaut absorbed doses and equivalent doses following GCR exposure under different shielding conditions. More specifically, the interface with BIANCA allowed us to calculate both the RBE for cell survival, which is related to non-cancer effects, and that for chromosome aberrations, related to the induction of stochastic effects, including cancer. The results were then compared with cancer and non-cancer astronaut dose limits. Concerning the stochastic effects, the equivalent doses calculated by multiplying the absorbed dose by the RBE for chromosome aberrations ("high-dose method") were similar to those calculated using the Q-values recommended by ICRP. For a 650-day mission at solar minimum (representative of a possible Mars mission scenario), the obtained values are always lower than the career limit recommended by ICRP (1 Sv), but higher than the limit of 600 mSv recently adopted by NASA. The comparison with the JAXA limits is more complex, since they are age and sex dependent. Concerning the deterministic limits, even for a 650-day mission at solar minimum, the values obtained by multiplying the absorbed dose by the RBE for cell survival are largely below the limits established by the various space agencies. Following this work, BIANCA, interfaced with an MC transport code such as FLUKA, can now predict RBE values for cell death and chromosome aberrations following GCR exposure. More generally, both at solar minimum and at solar maximum, shielding of 10 g/cm² Al seems to be a better choice than 20 g/cm² for astronaut protection against GCR.

Considerations for practical dose equivalent assessment of space radiation and exposure risk reduction in deep space

Shielding from space radiation, especially galactic cosmic rays (GCRs), is a significant safety challenge for future human activities in deep space. In this study, the shielding performances of potential materials [aluminum (Al), polyethylene (PE), and carbon fiber reinforced plastic (CFRP)] were investigated using Geant4 Monte Carlo simulation considering two types of biological scale parameters, the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) quality factor (QF_ICRP) and the plausible biological effectiveness (RBE_γacute), for GCRs. The effective dose equivalent was reduced by 50% for QF_ICRP and 38% for RBE_γacute when shielding using 20 g/cm² of CFRP. A spacecraft made from CFRP will have a better radiation shielding performance than conventional Al-based spacecraft. The contribution of heavy ions for QF_ICRP based effective dose equivalent was larger by a factor of ~ 3 compared to that for RBE_γacute based effective dose equivalent. The shielding materials efficiently reduced the effective dose equivalent due to ions with QF_ICRP > 3.36 and RBE_γacute > 2.26. QF_ICRP and RBE_γacute have advantages and disadvantages in quantifying the dose equivalent of space radiation, and the establishment of a standard parameter specified for a mixed radiation environment occupied by protons and heavy ions is necessary for practical dose assessment in deep space.

Flying without a Net: Space Radiation Cancer Risk Predictions without a Gamma-ray Basis

The biological effects of high linear energy transfer (LET) radiation show both a qualitative and quantitative difference when compared to low-LET radiation. However, models used to estimate risks ignore qualitative differences and involve extensive use of gamma-ray data, including low-LET radiation epidemiology, quality factors (QF), and dose and dose-rate effectiveness factors (DDREF). We consider a risk prediction that avoids gamma-ray data by formulating a track structure model of excess relative risk (ERR) with parameters estimated from animal studies using high-LET radiation. The ERR model is applied with U.S. population cancer data to predict lifetime risks to astronauts. Results for male liver and female breast cancer risk show that the ERR model agrees fairly well with estimates of a QF model on non-targeted effects (NTE) and is about 2-fold higher than the QF model that ignores NTE. For male or female lung cancer risk, the ERR model predicts about a 3-fold and more than 7-fold lower risk compared to the QF models with or without NTE, respectively. We suggest a relative risk approach coupled with improved models of tissue-specific cancers should be pursued to reduce uncertainties in space radiation risk projections. This approach would avoid low-LET uncertainties, while including qualitive effects specific to high-LET radiation.

Dose-Effects Models for Space Radiobiology: An Overview on Dose-Effect Relationships

Space radiobiology is an interdisciplinary science that examines the biological effects of ionizing radiation on humans involved in aerospace missions. The dose-effect models are one of the relevant topics of space radiobiology. Their knowledge is crucial for optimizing radioprotection strategies (e.g., spaceship and lunar space station-shielding and lunar/Mars village design), the risk assessment of the health hazard related to human space exploration, and reducing damages induced to astronauts from galactic cosmic radiation. Dose-effect relationships describe the observed damages to normal tissues or cancer induction during and after space flights. They are developed for the various dose ranges and radiation qualities characterizing the actual and the forecast space missions [International Space Station (ISS) and solar system exploration]. Based on a Pubmed search including 53 papers reporting the collected dose-effect relationships after space missions or in ground simulations, 7 significant dose-effect relationships (e.g., eye flashes, cataract, central nervous systems, cardiovascular disease, cancer, chromosomal aberrations, and biomarkers) have been identified. For each considered effect, the absorbed dose thresholds and the uncertainties/limitations of the developed relationships are summarized and discussed. The current knowledge on this topic can benefit from further in vitro and in vivo radiobiological studies, an accurate characterization of the quality of space radiation, and the numerous experimental dose-effects data derived from the experience in the clinical use of ionizing radiation for diagnostic or treatments with doses similar to those foreseen for the future space missions. The growing number of pooled studies could improve the prediction ability of dose-effect relationships for space exposure and reduce their uncertainty level. Novel research in the field is of paramount importance to reduce damages to astronauts from cosmic radiation before Beyond Low Earth Orbit exploration in the next future. The study aims at providing an overview of the published dose-effect relationships and illustrates novel perspectives to inspire future research.

A proposed change to astronaut exposures limits is a giant leap backwards for radiation protection

Addressing the uncertainties in assessing health risks from cosmic ray heavy ions is a major scientific challenge recognized by many previous reports by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) and the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP) advising the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). These reports suggested a series of steps to pursue the scientific basis for space radiation protection, including the implementation of age and sex dependent risk assessments and exposure limits appropriate for a small population of radiation workers, the evaluation of uncertainties in risk projections, and developing a vigorous research program in heavy ion radiobiology to reduce uncertainties and discover effective countermeasures. The assessment of uncertainties in assessing risk provides protection against changing assessments of risk, reveals limitations in information used in space mission operations, and provides the impetus to reduce uncertainties and discover the true level of risk and possible effectiveness of countermeasures through research. However, recommendations of a recent NAS report, in an effort to minimize differences in age and sex on flight opportunities, suggest a 600 mSv career effective dose limit based on a median estimate to reach 3% cancer fatality for 35-year old females. The NAS report does not call out examples where females would be excluded from space missions planned in the current decade using the current radiation limits at NASA. In addition, there are minimal considerations of the level of risk to be encountered at this exposure level with respect to the uncertainties of heavy ion radiobiology, and risks of cancer, as well as cognitive detriments and circulatory diseases. Furthermore, their recommendation to limit Sieverts and not risk in conjunction with a waiver process is essentially a recommendation to remove radiation limits for astronauts. We discuss issues with several of the NAS recommendations with the conclusion that the recommendations could have negative impacts on crew health and safety, and violate the three principles of radiation protection (to prevent clinically significant deterministic effects, limit stochastic effects, and practice ALARA), which would be a giant leap backwards for radiation protection.

Improving astronaut cancer risk assessment from space radiation with an ensemble model framework

A new approach to NASA space radiation risk modeling has successfully extended the current NASA probabilistic cancer risk model to an ensemble framework able to consider sub-model parameter uncertainty as well as model-form uncertainty associated with differing theoretical or empirical formalisms. Ensemble methodologies are already widely used in weather prediction, modeling of infectious disease outbreaks, and certain terrestrial radiation protection applications to better understand how uncertainty may influence risk decision-making. Applying ensemble methodologies to space radiation risk projections offers the potential to efficiently incorporate emerging research results, allow for the incorporation of future models, improve uncertainty quantification, and reduce the impact of subjective bias. Moreover, risk forecasting across an ensemble of multiple predictive models can provide stakeholders additional information on risk acceptance if current health/medical standards cannot be met for future space exploration missions, such as human missions to Mars. In this work, ensemble risk projections implementing multiple sub-models of radiation quality, dose and dose-rate effectiveness factors, excess risk, and latency are presented. Initial consensus methods for ensemble model weights and correlations to account for individual model bias are discussed. In these analyses, the ensemble forecast compares well to results from NASA's current operational cancer risk projection model used to assess permissible mission durations for astronauts. However, a large range of projected risk values are obtained at the upper 95th confidence level where models must extrapolate beyond available biological data sets. Closer agreement is seen at the median ± one sigma due to the inherent similarities in available models. Identification of potential new models, epidemiological data, and methods for statistical correlation between predictive ensemble members are discussed. Alternate ways of communicating risk and acceptable uncertainty with respect to NASA's current permissible exposure limits are explored.

Radiation on Earth or in Space: What Does It Change?

After having been an instrument of the Cold War, space exploration has become a major technological, scientific and societal challenge for a number of countries. With new projects to return to the Moon and go to Mars, radiobiologists have been called upon to better assess the risks linked to exposure to radiation emitted from space (IRS), one of the major hazards for astronauts. To this aim, a major task is to identify the specificities of the different sources of IRS that concern astronauts. By considering the probabilities of the impact of IRS against spacecraft shielding, three conclusions can be drawn: (1) The impacts of heavy ions are rare and their contribution to radiation dose may be low during low Earth orbit; (2) secondary particles, including neutrons emitted at low energy from the spacecraft shielding, may be common in deep space and may preferentially target surface tissues such as the eyes and skin; (3) a "bath of radiation" composed of residual rays and fast neutrons inside the spacecraft may present a concern for deep tissues such as bones and the cardiovascular system. Hence, skin melanoma, cataracts, loss of bone mass, and aging of the cardiovascular system are possible, dependent on the dose, dose-rate, and individual factors. This suggests that both radiosusceptibility and radiodegeneration may be concerns related to space exploration. In addition, in the particular case of extreme solar events, radiosensitivity reactions-such as those observed in acute radiation syndrome-may occur and affect blood composition, gastrointestinal and neurologic systems. This review summarizes the specificities of space radiobiology and opens the debate as regards refinements of current radiation protection concepts that will be useful for the better estimation of risks.

Determination of Chromosome Aberrations in Human Fibroblasts Irradiated by Mixed Fields Generated with Shielding

To better study biological effects of space radiation using ground-based facilities, the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) at the Brookhaven National Laboratory has been upgraded to rapidly switch ions and energies. This has allowed investigators to design irradiation protocols comprising a mixture of ions and energies more indicative of the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) environment. Despite these advancements, beam selection and delivery schemes should be optimized against facility and experimental constraints and validated to ensure such irradiations are a suitable representation of the space environment. Importantly, since experiments are time consuming and expensive, models capable of predicting biological outcomes over a range of irradiation conditions (single ion, sequential multi ion or mixed fields) are needed to support such efforts. In this work, human fibroblasts were placed behind 20 g/cm2 aluminum and 10.345 g/cm2 polyethylene and irradiated separately by 344 MeV hydrogen, 344 MeV/n helium, 450 MeV/n oxygen and 950 MeV/n iron ions at various doses. The fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) whole chromosome painting technique was then used to assess the cells for chromosome aberrations (CAs), notably simple exchanges. A multi-scale modeling approach was also developed to predict the formation of chromosome aberrations in these experiments. The Geant4 simulation toolkit was used to determine the spectra of particles and energies produced by interactions between the incident beams and shielding. The simulated mixed field generated by shielding was then transferred into the track structure code, RITRACKS (relativistic ion tracks), to generate three-dimensional (3D) voxelized dose maps at the nanometer scale. Finally, these voxel dose maps were input into the new damage and repair model, RITCARD (radiation-induced tracks, chromosome aberrations, repair and damage), to predict the formation of various CAs. The multi-scale model described herein is a significant advancement for the computational tools used to predict biological outcomes in cells exposed to highly complex, mixed ion fields related to the GCR environment. Results show that the simulation and experimental data are in good agreement for the complex radiation fields generated by all ions incident on shielding for most data points. The differences between model predictions and measurements are discussed. Although improvements are needed, the model extends current capabilities for evaluating beam selection and delivery schemes at the NSRL ground-based GCR simulator and for informing NASA risk projection models in the future.

Influence of Microgravity on Apoptosis in Cells, Tissues, and Other Systems In Vivo and In Vitro

All life forms have evolved under the constant force of gravity on Earth and developed ways to counterbalance acceleration load. In space, shear forces, buoyance-driven convection, and hydrostatic pressure are nullified or strongly reduced. When subjected to microgravity in space, the equilibrium between cell architecture and the external force is disturbed, resulting in changes at the cellular and sub-cellular levels (e.g., cytoskeleton, signal transduction, membrane permeability, etc.). Cosmic radiation also poses great health risks to astronauts because it has high linear energy transfer values that evoke complex DNA and other cellular damage. Space environmental conditions have been shown to influence apoptosis in various cell types. Apoptosis has important functions in morphogenesis, organ development, and wound healing. This review provides an overview of microgravity research platforms and apoptosis. The sections summarize the current knowledge of the impact of microgravity and cosmic radiation on cells with respect to apoptosis. Apoptosis-related microgravity experiments conducted with different mammalian model systems are presented. Recent findings in cells of the immune system, cardiovascular system, brain, eyes, cartilage, bone, gastrointestinal tract, liver, and pancreas, as well as cancer cells investigated under real and simulated microgravity conditions, are discussed. This comprehensive review indicates the potential of the space environment in biomedical research.

Benchmarking risk predictions and uncertainties in the NSCR model of GCR cancer risks with revised low let risk coefficients

We report on the contributions of model factors that appear in projection models to the overall uncertainty in cancer risks predictions for exposures to galactic cosmic ray (GCR) in deep space, including comparisons with revised low LET risks coefficients. Annual GCR exposures to astronauts at solar minimum are considered. Uncertainties in low LET risk coefficients, dose and dose-rate modifiers, quality factors (QFs), space radiation organ doses, non-targeted effects (NTE) and increased tumor lethality at high LET compared to low LET radiation are considered. For the low LET reference radiation parameters we use a revised assessment of excess relative risk (ERR) and excess additive risk (EAR) for radiation induced cancers in the Life-Span Study (LSS) of the Atomic bomb survivors that was recently reported, and also consider ERR estimates for males from the International Study of Nuclear Workers (INWORKS). For 45-y old females at mission age the risk of exposure induced death (REID) per year and 95% confidence intervals is predicted as 1.6% [0.71, 1.63] without QF uncertainties and 1.64% [0.69, 4.06] with QF uncertainties. However, fatal risk predictions increase to 5.83% [2.56, 9.7] based on a sensitivity study of the inclusion of non-targeted effects on risk predictions. For males a comparison using LSS or INWORKS lead to predictions of 1.24% [0.58, 3.14] and 2.45% [1.23, 5.9], respectively without NTEs. The major conclusion of our report is that high LET risk prediction uncertainties due to QFs parameters, NTEs, and possible increase lethality at high LET are dominant contributions to GCR uncertainties and should be the focus of space radiation research.

Fractionated and Acute Proton Radiation Show Differential Intestinal Tumorigenesis and DNA Damage and Repair Pathway Response in ApcMin/+ Mice

PURPOSE

Proton radiation is a major component of the radiation field in outer space and is used clinically in radiation therapy of resistant cancers. Although epidemiologic studies in atom bomb survivors and radiologic workers have established radiation as a risk factor for colorectal cancer (CRC), we have yet to determine the risk of CRC posed by proton radiation owing to a lack of sufficient human or animal data. The purpose of the current study was to quantitatively and qualitatively characterize differential effects of acute and fractionated high-energy protons on colorectal carcinogenesis.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

We used Apc^Min/+ mice, a well-studied CRC model, to examine acute versus fractionated proton radiation-induced differences in intestinal tumorigenesis and associated signaling pathways. Mice were exposed to 1.88 Gy of proton radiation delivered in a single fraction or in 4 equal daily fractions (0.47 Gy × 4). Intestinal tumor number and grade were scored 100 to 110 days after irradiation, and tumor and tumor-adjacent normal tissues were harvested to assess proliferative β-catenin/Akt pathways and DNA damage response and repair pathways relevant to colorectal carcinogenesis.

RESULTS

Significantly higher intestinal tumor number and grade, along with decreased differentiation, were observed after acute radiation relative to fractionated radiation. Acute protons induced upregulation of β-catenin and Akt pathways with increased proliferative marker phospho-histone H3. Increased DNA damage along with decreased DNA repair factors involved in mismatch repair and nonhomologous end joining were also observed after exposure to acute protons.

CONCLUSIONS

We show increased γH2AX, 53BP1, and 8-oxo-dG, suggesting that increased ongoing DNA damage along with decreased DNA repair factors and increased proliferative responses could be triggering a higher number of intestinal tumors after acute relative to fractionated proton exposures in Apc^Min/+ mice. Taken together, our data suggest greater carcinogenic potential of acute relative to fractionated proton radiation.

The Impact of Dose Rate on DNA Double-Strand Break Formation and Repair in Human Lymphocytes Exposed to Fast Neutron Irradiation

The lack of information on how biological systems respond to low-dose and low dose-rate exposures makes it difficult to accurately assess the carcinogenic risks. This is of critical importance to space radiation, which remains a serious concern for long-term manned space exploration. In this study, the γ-H2AX foci assay was used to follow DNA double-strand break (DSB) induction and repair following exposure to neutron irradiation, which is produced as secondary radiation in the space environment. Human lymphocytes were exposed to high dose-rate (HDR: 0.400 Gy/min) and low dose-rate (LDR: 0.015 Gy/min) p(66)/Be(40) neutrons. DNA DSB induction was investigated 30 min post exposure to neutron doses ranging from 0.125 to 2 Gy. Repair kinetics was studied at different time points after a 1 Gy neutron dose. Our results indicated that γ-H2AX foci formation was 40% higher at HDR exposure compared to LDR exposure. The maximum γ-H2AX foci levels decreased gradually to 1.65 ± 0.64 foci/cell (LDR) and 1.29 ± 0.45 (HDR) at 24 h postirradiation, remaining significantly higher than background levels. This illustrates a significant effect of dose rate on neutron-induced DNA damage. While no significant difference was observed in residual DNA damage after 24 h, the DSB repair half-life of LDR exposure was slower than that of HDR exposure. The results give a first indication that the dose rate should be taken into account for cancer risk estimations related to neutrons.

Expression Profile of Cell Cycle-Related Genes in Human Fibroblasts Exposed Simultaneously to Radiation and Simulated Microgravity

Multiple unique environmental factors such as space radiation and microgravity (μG) pose a serious threat to human gene stability during space travel. Recently, we reported that simultaneous exposure of human fibroblasts to simulated μG and radiation results in more chromosomal aberrations than in cells exposed to radiation alone. However, the mechanisms behind this remain unknown. The purpose of this study was thus to obtain comprehensive data on gene expression using a three-dimensional clinostat synchronized to a carbon (C)-ion or X-ray irradiation system. Human fibroblasts (1BR-hTERT) were maintained under standing or rotating conditions for 3 or 24 h after synchronized C-ion or X-ray irradiation at 1 Gy as part of a total culture time of 2 days. Among 57,773 genes analyzed with RNA sequencing, we focused particularly on the expression of 82 cell cycle-related genes after exposure to the radiation and simulated μG. The expression of cell cycle-suppressing genes (ABL1 and CDKN1A) decreased and that of cell cycle-promoting genes (CCNB1, CCND1, KPNA2, MCM4, MKI67, and STMN1) increased after C-ion irradiation under μG. The cell may pass through the G₁/S and G₂ checkpoints with DNA damage due to the combined effects of C-ions and μG, suggesting that increased genomic instability might occur in space.

NON-TARGETED EFFECTS LEAD TO A PARIDIGM SHIFT IN RISK ASSESSMENT FOR A MISSION TO THE EARTH'S MOON OR MARTIAN MOON PHOBOS

Cancer risk is an important limitation for galactic cosmic ray (GCR) exposures, which consist of a wide-energy range of protons, heavy ions and secondary radiation produced in shielding and tissues. Many studies suggest non-targeted effects (NTEs) occur for low doses of high-linear energy transfer (LET) radiation, leading to deviation from the linear dose response model used in radiation protection. We investigate corrections to quality factors (QF) for NTEs, which are used in predictions of fatal cancer risks for exploration missions. Prediction of fatal cancer risks for missions to the Martian moon, Phobos of 500-d and the Earth's moon of 365-d for average solar minimum condition show increases of 2- to 4-fold higher in the NTE model compared with the conventional model. Limitations in estimating uncertainties in NTE model parameters due to sparse radiobiology data at low doses are discussed.

Fluence-to-effective dose conversion coefficients for male astronauts

The problem of the reliable estimation of astronauts' radiation exposure doses in deep space is very important and relevant in connection with the accepted space research programmes. The effective dose value based on ICRP Publication 103 presents too conservative an estimate of an astronaut's radiation risk. A more realistic dose can be calculated on the basis of relationships between the radiation quality factor and linear energy transfer or linear energy or Z*²/β ², according to the NASA concept. In addition, it is reasonable to use a set of tissue weighting coefficients (normalised relative detriments) that have been averaged over a cohort of working age males similar to the male astronaut cohort. The closest to the male astronauts is the NASA cohort of males aged 30-60 years who have never smoked. The fluence-to-effective dose equivalent conversion coefficients calculated specially for male astronauts are compared. Different approaches to radiation risk estimation for astronauts are discussed.

Neutrons are forever! Historical perspectives

Purpose: Neutrons were an active field of radiobiology at the time of publication of the first issues of the International Journal of Radiation Biology in 1959. Three back-to-back papers published by Neary and his colleagues contain key elements of interest at the time. The present article aims to put these papers into context with the discovery of the neutron 27 years previously and then give a feel for how the field has progressed to the present day. It does not intend to provide a comprehensive review of this enormous field, but rather to provide selective summaries of main driving forces and developments. Conclusions: Neutron radiobiology has continued as a vigorous field of study throughout the past 84 years. Main driving forces have included concern for protection from the harmful effects of neutrons, exploitation and optimization for cancer therapy (fast beam therapy, brachytherapy and boron capture therapy), and scientific curiosity about the mechanisms of radiation action. Effort has fluctuated as the emphasis has shifted from time to time, but all three areas remain active today. Whatever the future holds for the various types of neutron therapy, the health protection aspects will remain with us permanently because of natural environmental exposure to neutrons as well as increased additional exposures from a variety of human activities.

Dose calculations in a cell monolayer for high-throughput irradiation with proton beams generated by PW lasers for space applications

One of the specific properties of laser-driven radiation is a broadband energy spectrum, which is also a feature of the space radiation fields. This property can be used in materials science studies or radiobiology experiments to simulate the energy spectrum of space radiation exposures in a ground-based laboratory. However, the differences in effects between the higher dose rates of laser generated radiation and the lower dose rates of space radiation have to be investigated in separate, prior studies. A design for a high-throughput irradiation experiment and the associated Monte Carlo dose calculations for a broadband energy proton beam depositing energy in a cell monolayer is presented. Dose control and dose uniformity in the cell monolayer was achieved in the simulations using a variable thickness Ni attenuator. A set of target doses from 0.2 Gy to 4 Gy was obtained and dose uniformity was optimized to less than 4% variability. This work opens the possibility of single or multiple exposures, controllable, high-throughput irradiation experiments on biological samples or materials, using broadband energy particle beams generated by lasers, with relevance for space applications.

Role of High-Linear Energy Transfer Radiobiology in Space Radiation Exposure Risks

Many manned missions to the Moon and Mars are scheduled in the near future. However, space radiation presents a major hazard to humans, and astronauts are constantly exposed to radiation, including high linear energy transfer (LET) radiation, which differs from radiation on Earth. Thus, there is thus an urgent need to clarify the biological effects of space radiation and reduce the associated risks. In this review, we consider the role of high-LET radiobiology in relation to space-radiation exposure.

Vive la radiorésistance!: converging research in radiobiology and biogerontology to enhance human radioresistance for deep space exploration and colonization

While many efforts have been made to pave the way toward human space colonization, little consideration has been given to the methods of protecting spacefarers against harsh cosmic and local radioactive environments and the high costs associated with protection from the deleterious physiological effects of exposure to high-Linear energy transfer (high-LET) radiation. Herein, we lay the foundations of a roadmap toward enhancing human radioresistance for the purposes of deep space colonization and exploration. We outline future research directions toward the goal of enhancing human radioresistance, including upregulation of endogenous repair and radioprotective mechanisms, possible leeways into gene therapy in order to enhance radioresistance via the translation of exogenous and engineered DNA repair and radioprotective mechanisms, the substitution of organic molecules with fortified isoforms, and methods of slowing metabolic activity while preserving cognitive function. We conclude by presenting the known associations between radioresistance and longevity, and articulating the position that enhancing human radioresistance is likely to extend the healthspan of human spacefarers as well.

Dynamical modeling approach to risk assessment for radiogenic leukemia among astronauts engaged in interplanetary space missions

A recently developed biologically motivated dynamical model of the assessment of the excess relative risk (ERR) for radiogenic leukemia among acutely/continuously irradiated humans (Smirnova, 2015, 2017) is applied to estimate the ERR for radiogenic leukemia among astronauts engaged in long-term interplanetary space missions. Numerous scenarios of space radiation exposure during space missions are used in the modeling studies. The dependence of the ERR for leukemia among astronauts on several mission parameters including the dose equivalent rates of galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and large solar particle events (SPEs), the number of large SPEs, the time interval between SPEs, mission duration, the degree of astronaut's additional shielding during SPEs, the degree of their additional 12-hour's daily shielding, as well as the total mission dose equivalent, is examined. The results of the estimation of ERR for radiogenic leukemia among astronauts, which are obtained in the framework of the developed dynamical model for various scenarios of space radiation exposure, are compared with the corresponding results, computed by the commonly used linear model. It is revealed that the developed dynamical model along with the linear model can be applied to estimate ERR for radiogenic leukemia among astronauts engaged in long-term interplanetary space missions in the range of applicability of the latter. In turn, the developed dynamical model is capable of predicting the ERR for leukemia among astronauts for the irradiation regimes beyond the applicability range of the linear model in emergency cases. As a supplement to the estimations of cancer incidence and death (REIC and REID) (Cucinotta et al., 2013, 2017), the developed dynamical model for the assessment of the ERR for leukemia can be employed on the pre-mission design phase for, e.g., the optimization of the regimes of astronaut's additional shielding in the course of interplanetary space missions. The developed model can also be used on the phase of the real-time responses during the space mission to make the decisions on the operational application of appropriate countermeasures to minimize the risks of occurrences of leukemia, especially, for emergency cases.

Non-Targeted Effects Models Predict Significantly Higher Mars Mission Cancer Risk than Targeted Effects Models

Cancer risk is an important concern for galactic cosmic ray (GCR) exposures, which consist of a wide-energy range of protons, heavy ions and secondary radiation produced in shielding and tissues. Relative biological effectiveness (RBE) factors for surrogate cancer endpoints in cell culture models and tumor induction in mice vary considerable, including significant variations for different tissues and mouse strains. Many studies suggest non-targeted effects (NTE) occur for low doses of high linear energy transfer (LET) radiation, leading to deviation from the linear dose response model used in radiation protection. Using the mouse Harderian gland tumor experiment, the only extensive data-set for dose response modelling with a variety of particle types (>4), for the first-time a particle track structure model of tumor prevalence is used to investigate the effects of NTEs in predictions of chronic GCR exposure risk. The NTE model led to a predicted risk 2-fold higher compared to a targeted effects model. The scarcity of data with animal models for tissues that dominate human radiation cancer risk, including lung, colon, breast, liver, and stomach, suggest that studies of NTEs in other tissues are urgently needed prior to long-term space missions outside the protection of the Earth's geomagnetic sphere.

Low and high dose rate heavy ion radiation-induced intestinal and colonic tumorigenesis in APC1638N/+ mice

Ionizing radiation (IR) is a recognized risk factor for colorectal cancer (CRC) and astronauts undertaking long duration space missions are expected to receive IR doses in excess of permissible limits with implications for colorectal carcinogenesis. Exposure to IR in outer space occurs at low doses and dose rates, and energetic heavy ions due to their high linear energy transfer (high-LET) characteristics remain a major concern for CRC risk in astronauts. Previously, we have demonstrated that intestinal tumorigenesis in a mouse model (APC^1638N/+) of human colorectal cancer was significantly higher after exposure to high dose rate energetic heavy ions relative to low-LET γ radiation. The purpose of the current study was to compare intestinal tumorigenesis in APC^1638N/+ mice after exposure to energetic heavy ions at high (50cGy/min) and relatively low (0.33cGy/min) dose rate. Male and female mice (6-8 weeks old) were exposed to either 10 or 50cGy of ²⁸Si (energy: 300MeV/n; LET: 70keV/μm) or ⁵⁶Fe (energy: 1000MeV/n; LET: 148keV/μm) ions at NASA Space Radiation Laboratory in Brookhaven National Laboratory. Mice (n=20 mice/group) were euthanized and intestinal and colon tumor frequency and size were counted 150days after radiation exposure. Intestinal tumorigenesis in male mice exposed to ⁵⁶Fe was similar for high and low dose rate exposures. Although male mice showed a decreasing trend at low dose rate relative to high dose rate exposures, the differences in tumor frequency between the two types of exposures were not statistically significant after ²⁸Si radiation. In female mice, intestinal tumor frequency was similar for both radiation type and dose rates tested. In both male and female mice intestinal tumor size was not different after high and low dose rate radiation exposures. Colon tumor frequency in male and female mice after high and low dose rate energetic heavy ions was also not significantly different. In conclusion, intestinal and colonic tumor frequency and size was similar irrespective of energetic heavy ion radiation dose rate suggesting that carcinogenic potential of energetic heavy ions is independent of dose rate.

Predictions of space radiation fatality risk for exploration missions

In this paper we describe revisions to the NASA Space Cancer Risk (NSCR) model focusing on updates to probability distribution functions (PDF) representing the uncertainties in the radiation quality factor (QF) model parameters and the dose and dose-rate reduction effectiveness factor (DDREF). We integrate recent heavy ion data on liver, colorectal, intestinal, lung, and Harderian gland tumors with other data from fission neutron experiments into the model analysis. In an earlier work we introduced distinct QFs for leukemia and solid cancer risk predictions, and here we consider liver cancer risks separately because of the higher RBE's reported in mouse experiments compared to other tumors types, and distinct risk factors for liver cancer for astronauts compared to the U.S.

POPULATION

The revised model is used to make predictions of fatal cancer and circulatory disease risks for 1-year deep space and International Space Station (ISS) missions, and a 940 day Mars mission. We analyzed the contribution of the various model parameter uncertainties to the overall uncertainty, which shows that the uncertainties in relative biological effectiveness (RBE) factors at high LET due to statistical uncertainties and differences across tissue types and mouse strains are the dominant uncertainty. NASA's exposure limits are approached or exceeded for each mission scenario considered. Two main conclusions are made: 1) Reducing the current estimate of about a 3-fold uncertainty to a 2-fold or lower uncertainty will require much more expansive animal carcinogenesis studies in order to reduce statistical uncertainties and understand tissue, sex and genetic variations. 2) Alternative model assumptions such as non-targeted effects, increased tumor lethality and decreased latency at high LET, and non-cancer mortality risks from circulatory diseases could significantly increase risk estimates to several times higher than the NASA limits.

NEUDOSE: A CubeSat Mission for Dosimetry of Charged Particles and Neutrons in Low-Earth Orbit

During space missions, astronauts are exposed to a stream of energetic and highly ionizing radiation particles that can suppress immune system function, increase cancer risks and even induce acute radiation syndrome if the exposure is large enough. As human exploration goals shift from missions in low-Earth orbit (LEO) to long-duration interplanetary missions, radiation protection remains one of the key technological issues that must be resolved. In this work, we introduce the NEUtron DOSimetry & Exploration (NEUDOSE) CubeSat mission, which will provide new measurements of dose and space radiation quality factors to improve the accuracy of cancer risk projections for current and future space missions. The primary objective of the NEUDOSE CubeSat is to map the in situ lineal energy spectra produced by charged particles and neutrons in LEO where most of the preparatory activities for future interplanetary missions are currently taking place. To perform these measurements, the NEUDOSE CubeSat is equipped with the Charged & Neutral Particle Tissue Equivalent Proportional Counter (CNP-TEPC), an advanced radiation monitoring instrument that uses active coincidence techniques to separate the interactions of charged particles and neutrons in real time. The NEUDOSE CubeSat, currently under development at McMaster University, provides a modern approach to test the CNP-TEPC instrument directly in the unique environment of outer space while simultaneously collecting new georeferenced lineal energy spectra of the radiation environment in LEO.

In vitro and in vivo assessment of direct effects of simulated solar and galactic cosmic radiation on human hematopoietic stem/progenitor cells

Future deep space missions to Mars and near-Earth asteroids will expose astronauts to chronic solar energetic particles (SEP) and galactic cosmic ray (GCR) radiation, and likely one or more solar particle events (SPEs). Given the inherent radiosensitivity of hematopoietic cells and short latency period of leukemias, space radiation-induced hematopoietic damage poses a particular threat to astronauts on extended missions. We show that exposing human hematopoietic stem/progenitor cells (HSC) to extended mission-relevant doses of accelerated high-energy protons and iron ions leads to the following: (1) introduces mutations that are frequently located within genes involved in hematopoiesis and are distinct from those induced by γ-radiation; (2) markedly reduces in vitro colony formation; (3) markedly alters engraftment and lineage commitment in vivo; and (4) leads to the development, in vivo, of what appears to be T-ALL. Sequential exposure to protons and iron ions (as typically occurs in deep space) proved far more deleterious to HSC genome integrity and function than either particle species alone. Our results represent a critical step for more accurately estimating risks to the human hematopoietic system from space radiation, identifying and better defining molecular mechanisms by which space radiation impairs hematopoiesis and induces leukemogenesis, as well as for developing appropriately targeted countermeasures.

Lessons learned using different mouse models during space radiation-induced lung tumorigenesis experiments

Unlike terrestrial ionizing radiation, space radiation, especially galactic cosmic rays (GCR), contains high energy charged (HZE) particles with high linear energy transfer (LET). Due to a lack of epidemiologic data for high-LET radiation exposure, it is highly uncertain how high the carcinogenesis risk is for astronauts following exposure to space radiation during space missions. Therefore, using mouse models is necessary to evaluate the risk of space radiation-induced tumorigenesis; however, which mouse model is better for these studies remains uncertain. Since lung tumorigenesis is the leading cause of cancer death among both men and women, and low-LET radiation exposure increases human lung carcinogenesis, evaluating space radiation-induced lung tumorigenesis is critical to enable safe Mars missions. Here, by comparing lung tumorigenesis obtained from different mouse strains, as well as miR-21 in lung tissue/tumors and serum, we believe that wild type mice with a low spontaneous tumorigenesis background are ideal for evaluating the risk of space radiation-induced lung tumorigenesis, and circulating miR-21 from such mice model might be used as a biomarker for predicting the risk.

Evaluating biomarkers to model cancer risk post cosmic ray exposure

Robust predictive models are essential to manage the risk of radiation-induced carcinogenesis. Chronic exposure to cosmic rays in the context of the complex deep space environment may place astronauts at high cancer risk. To estimate this risk, it is critical to understand how radiation-induced cellular stress impacts cell fate decisions and how this in turn alters the risk of carcinogenesis. Exposure to the heavy ion component of cosmic rays triggers a multitude of cellular changes, depending on the rate of exposure, the type of damage incurred and individual susceptibility. Heterogeneity in dose, dose rate, radiation quality, energy and particle flux contribute to the complexity of risk assessment. To unravel the impact of each of these factors, it is critical to identify sensitive biomarkers that can serve as inputs for robust modeling of individual risk of cancer or other long-term health consequences of exposure. Limitations in sensitivity of biomarkers to dose and dose rate, and the complexity of longitudinal monitoring, are some of the factors that increase uncertainties in the output from risk prediction models. Here, we critically evaluate candidate early and late biomarkers of radiation exposure and discuss their usefulness in predicting cell fate decisions. Some of the biomarkers we have reviewed include complex clustered DNA damage, persistent DNA repair foci, reactive oxygen species, chromosome aberrations and inflammation. Other biomarkers discussed, often assayed for at longer points post exposure, include mutations, chromosome aberrations, reactive oxygen species and telomere length changes. We discuss the relationship of biomarkers to different potential cell fates, including proliferation, apoptosis, senescence, and loss of stemness, which can propagate genomic instability and alter tissue composition and the underlying mRNA signatures that contribute to cell fate decisions. Our goal is to highlight factors that are important in choosing biomarkers and to evaluate the potential for biomarkers to inform models of post exposure cancer risk. Because cellular stress response pathways to space radiation and environmental carcinogens share common nodes, biomarker-driven risk models may be broadly applicable for estimating risks for other carcinogens.

Relative Biological Effectiveness of HZE Particles for Chromosomal Exchanges and Other Surrogate Cancer Risk Endpoints

The biological effects of high charge and energy (HZE) particle exposures are of interest in space radiation protection of astronauts and cosmonauts, and estimating secondary cancer risks for patients undergoing Hadron therapy for primary cancers. The large number of particles types and energies that makeup primary or secondary radiation in HZE particle exposures precludes tumor induction studies in animal models for all but a few particle types and energies, thus leading to the use of surrogate endpoints to investigate the details of the radiation quality dependence of relative biological effectiveness (RBE) factors. In this report we make detailed RBE predictions of the charge number and energy dependence of RBE’s using a parametric track structure model to represent experimental results for the low dose response for chromosomal exchanges in normal human lymphocyte and fibroblast cells with comparison to published data for neoplastic transformation and gene mutation. RBE’s are evaluated against acute doses of γ-rays for doses near 1 Gy. Models that assume linear or non-targeted effects at low dose are considered. Modest values of RBE (<10) are found for simple exchanges using a linear dose response model, however in the non-targeted effects model for fibroblast cells large RBE values (>10) are predicted at low doses <0.1 Gy. The radiation quality dependence of RBE’s against the effects of acute doses γ-rays found for neoplastic transformation and gene mutation studies are similar to those found for simple exchanges if a linear response is assumed at low HZE particle doses. Comparisons of the resulting model parameters to those used in the NASA radiation quality factor function are discussed.

Harderian Gland Tumorigenesis: Low-Dose and LET Response

Increased cancer risk remains a primary concern for travel into deep space and may preclude manned missions to Mars due to large uncertainties that currently exist in estimating cancer risk from the spectrum of radiations found in space with the very limited available human epidemiological radiation-induced cancer data. Existing data on human risk of cancer from X-ray and gamma-ray exposure must be scaled to the many types and fluences of radiations found in space using radiation quality factors and dose-rate modification factors, and assuming linearity of response since the shapes of the dose responses at low doses below 100 mSv are unknown. The goal of this work was to reduce uncertainties in the relative biological effect (RBE) and linear energy transfer (LET) relationship for space-relevant doses of charged-particle radiation-induced carcinogenesis. The historical data from the studies of Fry et al. and Alpen et al. for Harderian gland (HG) tumors in the female CB6F1 strain of mouse represent the most complete set of experimental observations, including dose dependence, available on a specific radiation-induced tumor in an experimental animal using heavy ion beams that are found in the cosmic radiation spectrum. However, these data lack complete information on low-dose responses below 0.1 Gy, and for chronic low-dose-rate exposures, and there are gaps in the LET region between 25 and 190 keV/μm. In this study, we used the historical HG tumorigenesis data as reference, and obtained HG tumor data for 260 MeV/u silicon (LET ∼70 keV/μm) and 1,000 MeV/u titanium (LET ∼100 keV/μm) to fill existing gaps of data in this LET range to improve our understanding of the dose-response curve at low doses, to test for deviations from linearity and to provide RBE estimates. Animals were also exposed to five daily fractions of 0.026 or 0.052 Gy of 1,000 MeV/u titanium ions to simulate chronic exposure, and HG tumorigenesis from this fractionated study were compared to the results from single 0.13 or 0.26 Gy acute titanium exposures. Theoretical modeling of the data show that a nontargeted effect model provides a better fit than the targeted effect model, providing important information at space-relevant doses of heavy ions.

Space Radiation Quality Factors and the Delta Ray Dose and Dose-Rate Reduction Effectiveness Factor

In this paper, the authors recommend that the dose and dose-rate effectiveness factor used for space radiation risk assessments should be based on a comparison of the biological effects of energetic electrons produced along a cosmic ray particles path in low fluence exposures to high dose-rate gamma-ray exposures of doses of about 1 Gy. Methods to implement this approach are described.

Adjustment of lifetime risks of space radiation-induced cancer by the healthy worker effect and cancer misclassification

Background. The healthy worker effect (HWE) is a source of bias in occupational studies of mortality among workers caused by use of comparative disease rates based on public data, which include mortality of unhealthy members of the public who are screened out of the workplace. For the US astronaut corp, the HWE is assumed to be strong due to the rigorous medical selection and surveillance. This investigation focused on the effect of correcting for HWE on projected lifetime risk estimates for radiation-induced cancer mortality and incidence.

Methods. We performed radiation-induced cancer risk assessment using Poisson regression of cancer mortality and incidence rates among Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bomb survivors. Regression coefficients were used for generating risk coefficients for the excess absolute, transfer, and excess relative models. Excess lifetime risks (ELR) for radiation exposure and baseline lifetime risks (BLR) were adjusted for the HWE using standardized mortality ratios (SMR) for aviators and nuclear workers who were occupationally exposed to ionizing radiation. We also adjusted lifetime risks by cancer mortality misclassification among atomic bomb survivors.

Results. For all cancers combined (“Nonleukemia”), the effect of adjusting the all-cause hazard rate by the simulated quantiles of the all-cause SMR resulted in a mean difference (not percent difference) in ELR of 0.65% and mean difference of 4% for mortality BLR, and mean change of 6.2% in BLR for incidence. The effect of adjusting the excess (radiation-induced) cancer rate or baseline cancer hazard rate by simulated quantiles of cancer-specific SMRs resulted in a mean difference of −1.2% in the all-cancer mortality ELR and mean difference of −6.4% in the mortality BLR. Whereas for incidence, the effect of adjusting by cancer-specific SMRs resulted in a mean change of −14.4% for the all-cancer BLR. Only cancer mortality risks were adjusted by simulated quantiles for misclassification, and results indicate a mean change of 1.1% for all-cancer mortality ELR, while the mean change in the all-cancer PC was approximately 4% for males and 6% for females.

Conclusions. The typical life table approach for projecting lifetime risk of radiation-induced cancer mortality and incidence for astronauts and radiation workers can be improved by adjusting for HWE while simulating the uncertainty of input rates, input excess risk coefficients, and bias correction factors during multiple Monte Carlo realizations of the life table.

Biological Effectiveness of Accelerated Protons for Chromosome Exchanges

We have investigated chromosome exchanges induced in human cells by seven different energies of protons (5-2500 MeV) with LET values ranging from 0.2 to 8 keV/μm. Human lymphocytes were irradiated in vitro and chromosome damage was assessed using three-color fluorescence in situ hybridization chromosome painting in chemically condensed chromosomes collected during the first cell division post irradiation. The relative biological effectiveness (RBE) was calculated from the initial slope of the dose-response curve for chromosome exchanges with respect to low dose and low dose-rate γ-rays (denoted as RBEmax), and relative to acute doses of γ-rays (denoted as RBEγAcute). The linear dose-response term was similar for all energies of protons, suggesting that the decrease in LET with increasing proton energy was balanced by the increase in dose from the production of nuclear secondaries. Secondary particles increase slowly above energies of a few hundred megaelectronvolts. Additional studies of 50 g/cm(2) aluminum shielded high-energy proton beams showed minor differences compared to the unshielded protons and lower RBE values found for shielded in comparison to unshielded beams of 2 or 2.5 GeV. All energies of protons produced a much higher percentage of complex-type chromosome exchanges when compared to acute doses of γ-rays. The implications of these results for space radiation protection and proton therapy are discussed.

Concepts and challenges in cancer risk prediction for the space radiation environment

Cancer is an important long-term risk for astronauts exposed to protons and high-energy charged particles during travel and residence on asteroids, the moon, and other planets. NASA's Biomedical Critical Path Roadmap defines the carcinogenic risks of radiation exposure as one of four type I risks. A type I risk represents a demonstrated, serious problem with no countermeasure concepts, and may be a potential "show-stopper" for long duration spaceflight. Estimating the carcinogenic risks for humans who will be exposed to heavy ions during deep space exploration has very large uncertainties at present. There are no human data that address risk from extended exposure to complex radiation fields. The overarching goal in this area to improve risk modeling is to provide biological insight and mechanistic analysis of radiation quality effects on carcinogenesis. Understanding mechanisms will provide routes to modeling and predicting risk and designing countermeasures. This white paper reviews broad issues related to experimental models and concepts in space radiation carcinogenesis as well as the current state of the field to place into context recent findings and concepts derived from the NASA Space Radiation Program.

Safe days in space with acceptable uncertainty from space radiation exposure

The prediction of the risks of cancer and other late effects from space radiation exposure carries large uncertainties mostly due to the lack of information on the risks from high charge and energy (HZE) particles and other high linear energy transfer (LET) radiation. In our recent work new methods were used to consider NASA's requirement to protect against the acceptable risk of no more than 3% probability of cancer fatality estimated at the 95% confidence level. Because it is not possible that a zero-level of uncertainty could be achieved, we suggest that an acceptable uncertainty level should be defined in relationship to a probability distribution function (PDF) that only suffers from modest skewness with higher uncertainty allowed for a normal PDF. In this paper, we evaluate PDFs and the number or "safe days" in space, which are defined as the mission length where risk limits are not exceeded, for several mission scenarios at different acceptable levels of uncertainty. In addition, we briefly discuss several important issues in risk assessment including non-cancer effects, the distinct tumor spectra and lethality found in animal experiments for HZE particles compared to background or low LET radiation associated tumors, and the possibility of non-targeted effects (NTE) modifying low dose responses and increasing relative biological effectiveness (RBE) factors for tumor induction. Each of these issues skew uncertainty distributions to higher fatality probabilities with the potential to increase central values of risk estimates in the future. Therefore they will require significant research efforts to support space exploration within acceptable levels of risk and uncertainty.