Nowhere to Go but Up: Impacts of Climate Change on Demographics of a Short-Range Endemic (Crotalus willardi obscurus) in the Sky-Islands of Southwestern North America

Effects of global change on snakebite envenoming incidence up to 2050: a modelling assessment

BACKGROUND

Human activities are driving climate, land cover, and population change (global change), and shifting the baseline geographical distribution of snakebite. The interacting effects of global change on snakes and communities at risk of snakebite are poorly understood, limiting capacity to anticipate and manage future changes in snakebite risk.

METHODS

In this modelling study, we projected how global change will affect snakebite envenoming incidence in Sri Lanka, as a model system that has a high incidence of snakebite. We used the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenario analysis framework to integrate forecasts across the domains of: climate change (historical trend from WorldClim plus three underlying regional circulation models [RCMs] in the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment-South Asia repository, with two emissions pathways [representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5]); land cover change (Dyna-CLUE model); and human population density change (based on Gridded Population of the World data) from Jan 1, 2010 to Dec 31, 2050. Forecasts were integrated under three different development scenarios: a sustainability pathway (SSP1 and no further emissions), a middle-of-the-road pathway (SSP2 and RCP4.5), and a fossil-fuelled pathway (SSP5 and RCP8.5). For SSP2 and SSP5, we nested three different RCMs (CNRM-CM5, GFDL-CCM3, and MPI-ESM-LR; mean averaged to represent consensus) to account for variability in climate predictions. Data were used as inputs to a mechanistic model that predicted snakebite envenoming incidence based on human-snake contact patterns.

FINDINGS

From 2010 to 2050, at the national level, envenoming incidence in Sri Lanka was projected to decrease by 12·0-23·0%, depending on the scenario. The rate of decrease in envenoming incidence was higher in SSP5-RCP8.5 than in SSP1 and SSP2-RCP4.5. Change in envenoming incidence was heterogenous across the country. In SSP1, incidence decreased in urban areas expected to have population growth, and with land cover changes towards anthropised classes. In SSP2-RCP4.5 and SSP5-RCP8.5, most areas were projected to have decreases in incidence (SSP5-RCP8.5 showing the largest area with incidence reductions), while areas such as the central highlands and the north of the country showed localised increases. In the model, decreases occurred with human population growth, land use change towards anthropised classes (potentially shifting occupational risk factors), and decreasing abundance of some snake species, potentially due to global warming and reduced climatic and habitat suitability, with displacement of some snake species.

INTERPRETATION

Snakebite envenoming incidence was projected to decrease overall in the coming decades in Sri Lanka, but with an apparent emerging conflict with sustainability objectives. Therefore, efforts to mitigate snakebite envenoming incidence will need to consider the potential impacts of sustainability interventions, particularly related to climate and land use change and in areas where increases in incidence are projected. In view of global change, neglected tropical diseases and public health issues related to biodiversity, such as snakebite, should be managed collaboratively by both environment and health stakeholders.

FUNDING

UK Medical Research Council.

Modeling a hot, dry future: Substantial range reductions in suitable environment projected under climate change for a semiarid riparian predator guild

An understanding of species-environmental relationships is invaluable for effective conservation and management under anthropogenic climate change, especially for biodiversity hotspots such as riparian habitats. Species distribution models (SDMs) assess present species-environmental relationships which can project potential suitable environments through space and time. An understanding of environmental factors associated with distributions can guide conservation management strategies under a changing climate. We generated 260 ensemble SDMs for five species of Thamnophis gartersnakes (n = 347)-an important riparian predator guild-in a semiarid and biogeographically diverse region under impact from climate change (Arizona, United States). We modeled present species-environmental relationships and projected changes to suitable environment under 12 future climate scenarios per species, including the most and least optimistic greenhouse gas emission pathways, through 2100. We found that Thamnophis likely advanced northward since the turn of the 20th century and overwinter temperature and seasonal precipitation best explained present distributions. Future ranges of suitable environment for Thamnophis are projected to decrease by ca. -37.1% on average. We found that species already threatened with extinction or those with warm trailing-edge populations likely face the greatest loss of suitable environment, including near or complete loss of suitable environment. Future climate scenarios suggest an upward advance of suitable environment around montane areas for some low to mid-elevation species, which may create pressures to ascend. The most suitable environmental areas projected here can be used to identify potential safe zones to prioritize conservation refuges, including applicable critical habitat designations. By bounding the climate pathway extremes to, we reduce SDM uncertainties and provide valuable information to help conservation practitioners mitigate climate-induced threats to species. Implementing informed conservation actions is paramount for sustaining biodiversity in important aridland riparian systems as the climate warms and dries.

Sampling methodology influences habitat suitability modeling for chiropteran species

Technological advances increase opportunities for novel wildlife survey methods. With increased detection methods, many organizations and agencies are creating habitat suitability models (HSMs) to identify critical habitats and prioritize conservation measures. However, multiple occurrence data types are used independently to create these HSMs with little understanding of how biases inherent to those data might impact HSM efficacy. We sought to understand how different data types can influence HSMs using three bat species (Lasiurus borealis, Lasiurus cinereus, and Perimyotis subflavus). We compared the overlap of models created from passive-only (acoustics), active-only (mist-netting and wind turbine mortalities), and combined occurrences to identify the effect of multiple data types and detection bias. For each species, the active-only models had the highest discriminatory ability to tell occurrence from background points and for two of the three species, active-only models preformed best at maximizing the discrimination between presence and absence values. By comparing the niche overlaps of HSMs between data types, we found a high amount of variation with no species having over 45% overlap between the models. Passive models showed more suitable habitat in agricultural lands, while active models showed higher suitability in forested land, reflecting sampling bias. Overall, our results emphasize the need to carefully consider the influences of detection and survey biases on modeling, especially when combining multiple data types or using single data types to inform management interventions. Biases from sampling, behavior at the time of detection, false positive rates, and species life history intertwine to create striking differences among models. The final model output should consider biases of each detection type, particularly when the goal is to inform management decisions, as one data type may support very different management strategies than another.

Implications of global environmental change for the burden of snakebite

Snakebite envenoming is a set of intoxication diseases that disproportionately affect people of poor socioeconomic backgrounds in tropical countries. As it is highly dependent on the environment its burden is expected to shift spatially with global anthropogenic environmental (climate, land use) and demographic change. The mechanisms underlying the changes to snakebite epidemiology are related to factors of snakes and humans. The distribution and abundance of snakes are expected to change with global warming via their thermal tolerance, while rainfall may affect the timing of key activities like feeding and reproduction. Human population growth is the primary cause of land-use change, which may impact snakes at smaller spatial scales than climate via habitat and biodiversity loss (e.g. prey availability). Human populations, on the other hand, could experience novel patterns and morbidity of snakebite envenoming, both as a result of snake responses to environmental change and due to the development of agricultural adaptations to climate change, socioeconomic and cultural changes, development and availability of better antivenoms, personal protective equipment, and mechanization of agriculture that mediate risk of encounters with snakes and their outcomes. The likely global effects of environmental and demographic change are thus context-dependent and could encompass both increasing and or snakebite burden (incidence, number of cases or morbidity), exposing new populations to snakes in temperate areas due to “tropicalization”, or by land use change-induced snake biodiversity loss, respectively. Tackling global change requires drastic measures to ensure large-scale ecosystem functionality. However, as ecosystems represent the main source of venomous snakes their conservation should be accompanied by comprehensive public health campaigns. The challenges associated with the joint efforts of biodiversity conservation and public health professionals should be considered in the global sustainability agenda in a wider context that applies to neglected tropical and zoonotic and emerging diseases.

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Distribution and abundance of snakes are expected to be affected by climate change.

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Land-use change may also impact snakes but at smaller spatial scales than climate.

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Human populations could experience novel patterns and morbidity of snakebite.

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Reducing snakebite should be accompanied by actions that protect snake diversity.

Endemic Population Response to Increasingly Severe Fire: A Cascade of Endangerment for the Mt. Graham Red Squirrel

Drought, past fire suppression, insect invasion, and high-severity fire represent a disturbance cascade characteristic of forests in the western United States. The result is altered forest ecosystems diminished in their function and capacity to support biodiversity. Small habitat specialists are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of disturbances because of their limited movement capacity and high site fidelity. Research suggests that small mammals suffer limited direct mortality from fire but are increasingly vulnerable to local extirpation because of secondary impacts that include habitat loss and reduced food availability, survival, and reproduction. We examine the direct and secondary impacts of increasingly severe fire events on the endangered Mt. Graham red squirrel—a model system to demonstrate how disturbances can threaten the persistence of range-limited species. We document survival, space use, and displacement prior to and following fires and discuss implications for conservation. We suggest that management plans address future threats, including disturbance-related habitat loss.

Long-lived larch clones may conserve adaptations that could restrict treeline migration in northern Siberia

The occurrence of refugia beyond the arctic treeline and genetic adaptation therein play a crucial role of largely unknown effect size. While refugia have potential for rapidly colonizing the tundra under global warming, the taxa may be maladapted to the new environmental conditions. Understanding the genetic composition and age of refugia is thus crucial for predicting any migration response. Here, we genotype 194 larch individuals from an ~1.8 km2 area in northcentral Siberia on the southern Taimyr Peninsula by applying an assay of 16 nuclear microsatellite markers. For estimating the age of clonal individuals, we counted tree rings at sections along branches to establish a lateral growth rate that was then combined with geographic distance. Findings reveal that the predominant reproduction type is clonal (58.76%) by short distance spreading of ramets. One outlier of clones 1 km apart could have been dispersed by reindeer. In clonal groups and within individuals, we find that somatic mutations accumulate with geographic distance. Clonal groups of two or more individuals are observed. Clonal age estimates regularly suggest individuals as old as 2,200 years, which coincides with a major environmental change that forced a treeline retreat in the region. We conclude that individuals with clonal growth mode were naturally selected as it lowers the likely risk of extinction under a harsh environment. We discuss this legacy from the past that might now be a maladaptation and hinder expansion under currently strongly increasing temperatures.

Multi-targeted management of upland game birds at the agroecosystem interface in midwestern North America

Despite its imperative, biodiversity conservation is chronically underfunded, a deficiency that often forces management agencies to prioritize. Single-species recovery thus becomes a focus (often with socio-political implications), whereas a more economical approach would be the transition to multi-targeted management (= MTM). This challenge is best represented in Midwestern North America where biodiversity has been impacted by 300+ years of chronic anthropogenic disturbance such that native tall-grass prairie is now supplanted by an agroecosystem. Here, we develop an MTM with a population genetic metric to collaboratively manage three Illinois upland gamebirds: common pheasant (Phasianus colchicus; pheasant), northern bobwhite quail (Colinus virginianus; quail), and threatened-endangered (T&E) greater prairie chicken (Tympanuchus cupido pinnatus; prairie chicken). We first genotyped our study pheasant at 19 microsatellite DNA loci and identified three captive breeding stocks (N = 143; IL Department of Natural Resources) as being significantly bottlenecked, with relatedness >1st-cousin (μR = 0.158). 'Wild' (non-stocked) pheasant [N = 543; 14 Pheasant-Habitat-Areas (PHAs)] were also bottlenecked, significantly interrelated (μR = 0.150) and differentiated (μFST = 0.047), yet distinct from propagation stock. PHAs that encompassed significantly with larger areas also reflected greater effective population sizes (μNE = 43; P<0.007). We juxtaposed these data against previously published results for prairie chicken and quail, and found population genetic structure driven by drift, habitat/climate impacts, and gender-biased selection via hunter-harvest. Each species (hunter-harvested or T&E) is independently managed, yet their composite population genetic baseline provides the quantitative criteria needed for an upland game bird MTM. Its implementation would require agricultural plots to be rehabilitated/reclaimed using a land-sharing/sparing portfolio that differs markedly from the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP), where sequestered land decreases as agricultural prices escalate. Cost-savings for an MTM would accrue by synchronizing single-species management with a dwindling hunter-harvest program, and by eliminating propagation/stocking programs. This would sustain not only native grasslands and their resident species, but also accelerate conservation at the wildlife-agroecosystem interface.

Drought-induced Suppression of Female Fecundity in a Capital Breeder

Human-induced global climate change is exerting increasingly strong selective pressures on a myriad of fitness traits that affect organisms. These traits, in turn, are influenced by a variety of environmental parameters such as temperature and precipitation, particularly in ectothermic taxa such as amphibians and reptiles. Over the past several decades, severe and prolonged episodes of drought are becoming commonplace throughout North America. Documentation of responses to this environmental crisis, however, is often incomplete, particularly in cryptic species. Here, we investigated reproduction in a population of pitviper snakes (copperhead, Agkistrodon contortrix), a live-bearing capital breeder. This population experienced a severe drought from 2012 through 2016. We tested whether declines in number of progeny were linked to this drought. Decline in total number offspring was significant, but offspring length and mass were unaffected. Reproductive output was positively impacted by precipitation and negatively impacted by high temperatures. We hypothesized that severe declines of prey species (e.g., cicada, amphibians, and small mammals) reduced energy acquisition during drought, negatively impacting reproductive output of the snakes. Support for this view was found using the periodical cicada (Magicicada spp.) as a proxy for prey availability. Various climate simulations, including our own qualitative analysis, predict that drought events will continue unabated throughout the geographic distribution of copperheads which suggests that long-term monitoring of populations are needed to better understand geographic variation in drought resilience and cascading impacts of drought phenomena on ecosystem function.

Holocene Population Decline and Conservation Implication for the Western Hercules Beetle, Dynastes grantii (Coleoptera, Scarabaeidae)

The Western Hercules beetle (Dynastes grantii) is endemic to the highland forest habitats of southwestern United States and northern Mexico. The habitats harbor many endemic species, but are being threatened by rapid climate change and urban development. In this study, the genetic structure of D. grantii populations from southwestern United States was investigated. Specifically, genomic data from double-digest restriction-site-associated DNA sequencing libraries were utilized to test whether geographically distant populations from the Mogollon Rim (Arizona [N = 12 individuals] and New Mexico [N = 10 individuals]) are genetically structured. The study also estimated the effective population size of the Mogollon Rim populations based on genetic diversity. The results indicated that the 2 geographic populations from the Mogollon Rim were not genetically structured. A population size reduction was detected since the end of the last glacial period, which coincided with a reduction of forest habitat in the study area. The results implied that the connectivity and the size of highland forest habitats in the Mogollon Rim could have been the major factors shaping the population genetic structure and demographic history of D. grantii. The Western Hercules beetle could be a useful flagship species for local natural history education and to promote the conservation of highland forest habitats.

Unraveling the influences of climate change in Lepidosauria (Reptilia)

In recent decades, changes in climate have caused impacts on natural and human systems on all continents and across the oceans and many species have shifted their geographic ranges, seasonal activities, migration patterns, abundances and interactions in response to these changes. Projections of future climate change are uncertain, but the Earth's warming is likely to exceed 4.8 °C by the end of 21th century. The vulnerability of a population, species, group or system due to climate change is a function of impact of the changes on the evaluated system (exposure and sensitivity) and adaptive capacity as a response to this impact, and the relationship between these elements will determine the degree of species vulnerability. Predicting the potential future risks to biodiversity caused by climate change has become an extremely active field of research, and several studies in the last two decades had focused on determining possible impacts of climate change on Lepidosaurians, at a global, regional and local level. Here we conducted a systematic review of published studies in order to seek to what extent the accumulated knowledge currently allow us to identify potential trends or patterns regarding climate change effects on lizards, snakes, amphisbaenians and tuatara. We conducted a literature search among online literature databases/catalogues and recorded 255 studies addressing the influence of climate change on a total of 1918 species among 49 Lepidosaurian's families. The first study addressing this subject is dated 1999. Most of the studies focused on species distribution, followed by thermal biology, reproductive biology, behavior and genetics. We concluded that an integrative approach including most of these characteristics and also bioclimatic and environmental variables, may lead to consistent and truly effective strategies for species conservation, aiming to buffer the climate change effects on this group of reptiles.

Genetic rescue, the greater prairie chicken and the problem of conservation reliance in the Anthropocene

A central question in conservation is how best to manage biodiversity, despite human domination of global processes (= Anthropocene). Common responses (i.e. translocations, genetic rescue) forestall potential extirpations, yet have an uncertain duration. A textbook example is the greater prairie chicken (GRPC: Tympanuchus cupido pinnatus), where translocations (1992-1998) seemingly rescued genetically depauperate Illinois populations. We re-evaluated this situation after two decades by genotyping 21 microsatellite loci from 1831 shed feathers across six leks in two counties over 4 years (2010-2013). Low migration rates (less than 1%) established each county as demographically independent, but with declining-population estimates (4 year average N = 79). Leks were genetically similar and significantly bottlenecked, with low effective population sizes (average N_e = 13.1; 4 year N_e/N = 0.166). Genetic structure was defined by 12 significantly different family groups, with relatedness r = 0.31 > half-sib r = 0.25. Average heterozygosity, indicating short-term survival, did not differ among contemporary, pre- and post-translocated populations, whereas allelic diversity did. Our results, the natural history of GRPC (i.e. few leks, male dominance hierarchies) and its controlled immigration suggest demographic expansion rather than genetic rescue. Legal protection under the endangered species act (ESA) may enhance recovery, but could exacerbate political-economic concerns on how best to manage 'conservation-reliant' species, for which GRPC is now an exemplar.

Anthropogenic impacts drive niche and conservation metrics of a cryptic rattlesnake on the Colorado Plateau of western North America

Ecosystems transition quickly in the Anthropocene, whereas biodiversity adapts more slowly. Here we simulated a shifting woodland ecosystem on the Colorado Plateau of western North America by using as its proxy over space and time the fundamental niche of the Arizona black rattlesnake (Crotalus cerberus). We found an expansive (= end-of-Pleistocene) range that contracted sharply (= present), but is blocked topographically by Grand Canyon/Colorado River as it shifts predictably northwestward under moderate climate change (= 2080). Vulnerability to contemporary wildfire was quantified from available records, with forested area reduced more than 27% over 13 years. Both 'ecosystem metrics' underscore how climate and wildfire are rapidly converting the Plateau ecosystem into novel habitat. To gauge potential effects on C. cerberus, we derived a series of relevant 'conservation metrics' (i.e. genetic variability, dispersal capacity, effective population size) by sequencing 118 individuals across 846 bp of mitochondrial (mt)DNA-ATPase8/6. We identified five significantly different clades (net sequence divergence = 2.2%) isolated by drainage/topography, with low dispersal (F ST = 0.82) and small sizes (2N ef = 5.2). Our compiled metrics (i.e. small-populations, topographic-isolation, low-dispersal versus conserved-niche, vulnerable-ecosystem, dispersal barriers) underscore the susceptibility of this woodland specialist to a climate and wildfire tandem. We offer adaptive management scenarios that may counterbalance these metrics and avoid the extirpation of this and other highly specialized, relictual woodland clades.

Deconstructing a Species-Complex: Geometric Morphometric and Molecular Analyses Define Species in the Western Rattlesnake (Crotalus viridis)

Morphological data are a conduit for the recognition and description of species, and their acquisition has recently been broadened by geometric morphometric (GM) approaches that co-join the collection of digital data with exploratory 'big data' analytics. We employed this approach to dissect the Western Rattlesnake (Crotalus viridis) species-complex in North America, currently partitioned by mitochondrial (mt)DNA analyses into eastern and western lineages (two and seven subspecies, respectively). The GM data (i.e., 33 dorsal and 50 lateral head landmarks) were gleaned from 2,824 individuals located in 10 museum collections. We also downloaded and concatenated sequences for six mtDNA genes from the NCBI GenBank database. GM analyses revealed significant head shape differences attributable to size and subspecies-designation (but not their interactions). Pairwise shape distances among subspecies were significantly greater than those derived from ancestral character states via squared-change parsimony, with the greatest differences separating those most closely related. This, in turn, suggests the potential for historic character displacement as a diversifying force in the complex. All subspecies, save one, were significantly differentiated in a Bayesian discriminant function analysis (DFA), regardless of whether our priors were uniform or informative (i.e., mtDNA data). Finally, shape differences among sister-clades were significantly greater than expected by chance alone under a Brownian model of evolution, promoting the hypothesis that selection rather than drift was the driving force in the evolution of the complex. Lastly, we combine head shape and mtDNA data so as to derived an integrative taxonomy that produced robust boundaries for six OTUs (operational taxonomic units) of the C. viridis complex. We suggest these boundaries are concomitant with species-status and subsequently provide a relevant nomenclature for its recognition and representation.

Climate Change-Induced Range Expansion of a Subterranean Rodent: Implications for Rangeland Management in Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

Disturbances, both human-induced and natural, may re-shape ecosystems by influencing their composition, structure, and functional processes. Plateau zokor (Eospalax baileyi) is a typical subterranean rodent endemic to Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP), which are considered ecosystem engineers influencing the alpine ecosystem function. It is also regarded as a pest aggravating the degradation of overgrazed grassland and subject to regular control in QTP since 1950s. Climate change has been predicted in this region but little research exists exploring its impact on such subterranean rodent populations. Using plateau zokor as a model, through maximum entropy niche-based modeling (Maxent) and sustainable habitat models, we investigate zokor habitat dynamics driven by the future climate scenarios. Our models project that zokor suitable habitat will increase by 6.25% in 2050 in QTP. The predication indicated more threats in terms of grassland degradation as zokor suitable habitat will increase in 2050. Distribution of zokors will shift much more in their southern range with lower elevation compare to northern range with higher elevation. The estimated distance of shift ranges from 1 km to 94 km from current distribution. Grassland management should take into account such predictions in order to design mitigation measures to prevent further grassland degradation in QTP under climate change scenarios.