Improved Survival in Patients with Viral Hepatitis-Induced Hepatocellular Carcinoma Undergoing Recommended Abdominal Ultrasound Surveillance in Ontario: A Population-Based Retrospective Cohort Study

Improved Survival in At-Risk Patients Undergoing Surveillance for Hepatocellular Carcinoma - A Nationwide Swedish Register-Based Study

Purpose

Surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is recommended in at-risk patients, but its effectiveness in Western populations has been questioned. The purpose was to evaluate the effect of surveillance in patients with HCC in a Northern European setting.

Patients and Methods

Data on patients diagnosed with HCC between 2009 and 2019 were collected from the nationwide Swedish National Registry for Tumors of the Liver and Bile Ducts (SweLiv). Patients who had undergone HCC surveillance were compared to those who had not (but had an obvious indication for surveillance, ie, liver cirrhosis or hepatic porphyria and an age of ≥50 years) regarding etiology, tumor burden, presence of extrahepatic spread, treatment and lead-time adjusted overall survival.

Results

A total of 4979 patients with index HCC were identified and information regarding surveillance was available in 4116 patients. Among these, 1078 had got their HCC diagnosis during surveillance, whereas 1647 had been diagnosed without surveillance despite a presumed indication. The most common underlying etiologies for HCC were hepatitis C (28.2%) and alcoholic liver disease (26.9%), and 94.8% had cirrhosis. The surveillance cohort more frequently met the University of California San Francisco-criteria (79% vs 53%, p <0.001), more often received a potentially curative treatment (62% vs 28%, p <0.001) and had less extrahepatic spread (7.6% vs 22.4% p <0.001). After adjustment for lead-time bias (sojourn time of 270 days), the surveillance group had a significantly longer estimated median survival time than the non-surveillance group (34 months vs 11 months, p <0.001). A multivariable cox regression analysis showed an adjusted hazard ratio of 0.59 (95% CI 0.51-0.67) in favor of surveillance.

Conclusion

Surveillance for HCC in at-risk patients is associated with diagnosis at an earlier tumor stage, treatment with curative intent and with improved lead-time adjusted overall survival. These findings encourage HCC surveillance of at-risk patients also in a Western population.

Benefits and harms of screening for hepatocellular carcinoma in high-risk populations: systematic review and meta-analysis

Objective

The incidence and mortality of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) have been increasing around the world. Current guidelines recommend HCC screening in high-risk population. However, the strength of evidence of benefits and harms of HCC screening to support the recommendation was unclear. The objective is to systematically synthesize current evidence on the benefits and harms of HCC screening.

Methods

We searched PubMed and nine other databases until August 20, 2021. We included cohort studies and RCTs that compared the benefits and harms of screening and non-screening in high-risk population of HCC. Case series studies that reported harms of HCC screening were also included. Pooled risk ratio (RR), according to HCC screening status, was calculated for each benefit outcome (e.g., HCC mortality, survival rate, proportion of early HCC), using head-to-head meta-analysis. The harmful outcomes (e.g., proportion of physiological harms provided by non-comparative studies were pooled by prevalence of meta-analysis. Analysis on publication bias and quality of life, subgroup analysis, and sensitivity analysis were also conducted.

Results

We included 70 studies, including four random clinical trials (RCTs), 63 cohort studies,three case series studies. The meta-analysis of RCTs showed HCC screening was significantly associated with reduced HCC mortality (RR [risk ratio], 0.73 [95% CI, 0.56-0.96]; I 2 = 75.1%), prolonged overall survival rates (1-year, RR, 1.72 [95% CI, 1.13-2.61]; I 2 = 72.5%; 3-year, RR, 2.86 [95% CI, 1.78-4.58]; I 2 = 10.1%; and 5-year, RR, 2.76 [95% CI, 1.37-5.54]; I 2 = 28.3%), increased proportion of early HCC detection (RR, 2.68 [95% CI, 1.77-4.06]; I 2 = 50.4%). Similarly, meta-analysis of cohort studies indicated HCC screening was more effective than non-screening. However, pooled proportion of physiological harms was 16.30% (95% CI: 8.92%-23.67%) and most harms were of a mild to moderate severity.

Conclusion

The existing evidence suggests HCC screening is more effective than non-screening in high-risk population. However, harms of screening should not be ignored.

Performance and effectiveness of hepatocellular carcinoma screening in individuals with HBsAg seropositivity in China: a multicenter prospective study

Current guidelines recommend hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance for at-risk individuals, including individuals with hepatitis B virus infection. However, the performance and survival benefits of annual screening have not been evaluated through multicenter prospective studies in a Chinese population. Between 2017 and 2021, we included 14,426 participants with hepatitis B surface antigen seropositivity in an annual HCC screening study in China using a multicenter prospective design with ultrasonography and serum alpha-fetoprotein. After four rounds of screening and follow-up, the adjusted hazard ratios of death after correction for lead-time and length-time biases for screen-detected cancers at the prevalent and incident rounds were 0.74 (95% confidence interval = 0.60-0.91) and 0.52 (95% confidence interval = 0.40-0.68), respectively. A meta-analysis demonstrated that HCC screening was associated with improved survival after adjusting for lead-time bias. Our findings highlight the 'real-world' feasibility and effectiveness of annual HCC screening in community settings for the early detection of HCC and to improve survival.

Prediagnostic CT or MRI Utilization and Outcomes in Hepatocellular Carcinoma: SEER-Medicare Database Analysis

Ultrasound-based surveillance has suboptimal sensitivity for early hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) detection, generating interest in alternative surveillance modalities. We aim to investigate the association between prediagnostic CT or MRI and overall survival in a contemporary cohort of patients with HCC. Using the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER)-Medicare database, we analyzed Medicare beneficiaries diagnosed with HCC between 2011 and 2015. Proportion of time covered (PTC) was defined as the proportion of the 36-month period prior to HCC diagnosis in which patients had received abdominal imaging (ultrasound, CT, MRI). Cox proportional hazards regression was used to investigate the association between PTC and overall survival. Among 5,098 patients with HCC, 3,293 (65%) patients had abdominal imaging prior to HCC diagnosis, of whom 67% had CT/MRI. Median PTC by any abdominal imaging was 5.6% [interquartile range (IQR): 0%-36%], with few patients having PTC >50%. Compared with no abdominal images, ultrasound [adjusted HR (aHR): 0.87, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.79-0.95] and CT/MRI group (aHR: 0.68, 95% CI: 0.63-0.74) were associated with improved survival. Lead-time adjusted analysis showed improved survival continued to be observed with CT/MRI (aHR: 0.80, 95% CI: 0.74-0.87) but not ultrasound (aHR: 1.00, 95% CI: 0.91-1.10). Increased PTC was associated with improved survival, with a larger effect size observed with CT/MRI (aHR per 10%: 0.93, 95% CI: 0.91-0.95) than ultrasound (aHR per 10%: 0.96, 95% CI: 0.95-0.98). In conclusion, PTC by abdominal images was associated with improved survival in patients with HCC, with potential greater benefit using CT/MRI. Regular utilization of CT/MRI before cancer diagnosis may have potential survival benefit compared to ultrasound in patients with HCC.

Significance

Our population-based study using SEER-Medicare database demonstrated that proportion of time covered by abdominal imaging was associated with improved survival in patients with HCC, with potential greater benefit using CT/MRI. The results suggest that CT/MRI surveillance may have potential survival benefit compared with ultrasound surveillance in high-risk patients for HCC. A larger prospective study should be conducted for external validation.

Treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma in sub-Saharan Africa: challenges and solutions

Most patients who develop hepatocellular carcinoma reside in resource-poor countries, a category that includes most countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Age-standardised incidence rates of hepatocellular carcinoma in western, central, eastern, and southern Africa is 6·53 per 100 000 inhabitants to 11·1 per 100 000 inhabitants. In high-income countries, around 40% of patients are diagnosed at an early stage, in which interventions with curative intent or palliative interventions are possible. By contrast, 95% of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma in sub-Saharan Africa present with advanced or terminal disease. In high-income countries, targets of 30-40% that have been set for intervention with curative intent are regularly met, with expected 5-year overall survival rates in the region of 70%. These outcomes are in sharp contrast with the very small proportion of patients in sub-Saharan Africa who are treated with curative intent. Primary prevention through the eradication and reduction of risk factors is still suboptimal because of logistical challenges. The challenges facing primary prevention, in combination with difficult-to-manage historic and emerging risk factors, such as ethanol overconsumption and metabolic dysfunction-associated liver disease, mandates secondary prevention for populations at risk through screening and surveillance. Although the increased treatment needs yielded by screening and surveillance in high-income countries are manageable by the incremental expansion of existing interventional resources, the lack of resources in sub-Saharan Africa will undermine the possible benefits of secondary prevention. An estimate of the projected effect of the introduction and expansion of screening and surveillance, resulting in stage migration and possibilities for active interventions for hepatocellular carcinoma, would facilitate optimal planning and development of resources.

Effect of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Surveillance Programmes on Overall Survival in a Mixed Cirrhotic UK Population: A Prospective, Longitudinal Cohort Study

Introduction: Surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is recommended by national and international guidelines. However, there are no trial data on whether surveillance improves clinical outcomes in a UK cirrhosis population of mixed aetiology. Our aim was to determine the impact of, and adherence to, surveillance on overall survival. Methods: We prospectively collected data on consecutive patients diagnosed with HCC between January 2009 and December 2015 at two large UK centres. We assessed outcomes depending on whether they had been entered into an HCC surveillance programme, and if they had adhered to that. Results: Out of 985 patients diagnosed with HCC in this study, 40.0% had been enrolled in a surveillance programme. Of these, 76.6% were adherent with surveillance and 24.4% were not. Adherence to surveillance was significantly associated with improved overall survival, even when accounting for lead-time bias using different approaches (HR for 270 days lead-time adjustment 0.64, 0.53 to 0.76, p < 0.001). Conclusions: When adjusted for lead-time bias, HCC surveillance is associated with improved overall survival; however, the beneficial effect of surveillance on survival was lower than reported in studies that did not account fully for lead-time bias.

Prenatal electrocardiogram testing and postpartum depression: A population-based cohort study

Background

Cardiovascular symptoms in pregnancy may be a clue to psychological distress. We examined whether electrocardiogram testing in pregnant women is associated with an increased risk of subsequent postpartum depression.

Methods

We conducted a population-based cohort study of pregnant women who delivered in Ontario, Canada comparing women who received a prenatal ECG to women who did not.

Results

In total, 3,238,218 women gave birth during the 25-year study period of whom 157,352 (5%) received an electrocardiogram during prenatal care. Receiving an electrocardiogram test was associated with a one-third relative increase in the odds of postpartum depression (odds ratio 1.34; 95% confidence interval 1.29–1.39, p < 0.001).

Conclusion

The association between prenatal electrocardiogram testing and postpartum depression suggests a possible link of organic disease with mental illness, and emphasizes that cardiovascular symptoms may be a clinical clue to the presence of an underlying mood disorder.

Use of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Surveillance in Patients With Cirrhosis: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance is associated with early tumor detection and improved survival; however, it is often underused in clinical practice. We aimed to characterize surveillance use among patients with cirrhosis and the efficacy of interventions to increase surveillance.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

We performed a systematic literature review using the MEDLINE database from January 2010 through August 2018 to identify cohort studies evaluating HCC surveillance receipt or interventions to increase surveillance in patients with cirrhosis. A pooled estimate for surveillance receipt with 95% confidence intervals was calculated. Correlates of surveillance use were defined from each study and prespecified subgroup analyses. Twenty-nine studies, with a total of 118,799 patients, met inclusion criteria, with a pooled estimate for surveillance use of 24.0% (95% confidence interval, 18.4-30.1). In subgroup analyses, the highest surveillance receipt was reported in studies with patients enrolled from subspecialty gastroenterology/hepatology clinics and lowest in studies characterizing surveillance in population-based cohorts (73.7% versus 8.8%, P < 0.001). Commonly reported correlates of surveillance included higher receipt among patients followed by subspecialists and lower receipt among those with alcohol-associated or nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH)-related cirrhosis. All eight studies (n = 5,229) evaluating interventions including patient/provider education, inreach (e.g., reminder and recall systems), and population health outreach strategies reported significant increases (range 9.4%-63.6%) in surveillance receipt.

CONCLUSIONS

HCC surveillance remains underused in clinical practice, particularly among patients with alcohol-associated or NASH-related cirrhosis and those not followed in subspecialty gastroenterology clinics. Interventions such as provider education, inreach including reminder systems, and population health outreach efforts can significantly increase HCC surveillance.

Only one-third of hepatocellular carcinoma cases are diagnosed via screening or surveillance: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND/OBJECTS

Early hepatocellular carcinoma diagnosis is associated with better long-term survival. Studies of at-risk patients who are monitored in routine practice have reported an overall adherence rate to hepatocellular carcinoma screening/surveillance of approximately 60% and suboptimal diagnostic efficacy of the current screening/surveillance tools. However, it is unclear how many hepatocellular carcinoma patients were actually diagnosed via screening/surveillance given these obstacles. Therefore, via a systematic review of PubMed and Scopus databases from 2000 to 2019, we aimed to identify the proportion of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma diagnosed via screening/surveillance in routine practice.

METHODS

We included original research articles of studies of patients already diagnosed with hepatocellular carcinoma that reported the proportion of hepatocellular carcinoma diagnosed via screening/surveillance.

RESULTS

The study included 60 studies and 50 554 hepatocellular carcinoma cases. The pooled proportion of hepatocellular carcinoma diagnosed by screening/surveillance was 37% (95% confidence interval: 31%-44%) and differed by geographic region (North America/Asia/Europe/Oceania/Africa/South America, 31%/42%/41%/30%/29%/47%, P = 0.017, respectively) and by surveillance interval (<12 months 39% vs. 12 months 19%, P < 0.01) but not by disease etiology, cirrhosis status, clinical setting, practice setting, hepatocellular carcinoma diagnosis period, or surveillance method.

CONCLUSION

Globally, hepatocellular carcinoma was diagnosed via screening/surveillance in less than half of the patients (37%) regardless of healthcare setting or liver disease etiology and without improvement over time despite several recent guideline updates. Research is needed to understand the barriers to screening/surveillance to include medical as well as social and cultural influences.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma Screening Is Associated With Increased Survival of Patients With Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) screening of patients with cirrhosis is recommended by professional societies to increase detection of early stage tumors and survival, but is underused in clinical practice.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 13,714 patients diagnosed with HCC from 2003 through 2013 included in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program-Medicare database. We characterized receipt of HCC screening in the 3 years before HCC diagnosis using mutually exclusive categories (consistent vs inconsistent vs no screening) and the proportion of time covered with screening. Correlates for screening receipt were assessed using a multivariable 2-part regression model. We examined the association between screening receipt and early detection of tumors using multivariable logistic regression. We evaluated associations between screening receipt and overall survival using a Cox proportional hazards model, after adjustments for effects of lead-time bias and length-time bias on survival rate estimators.

RESULTS

Most patients with cirrhosis (51.1%) did not receive any screening in the 3 years before a diagnosis of HCC, and only 6.8% of patients underwent consistent annual screening. The proportion with consistent screening increased from 5.4% in 2003 to 2006 to 8.8% in 2011 to 2013 (P < .001). The mean proportion of time covered was 13.4% overall, which increased from 11.7% in 2003 to 2006 to 15.2% in 2011 to 2013. Receipt of consistent screening was associated with detection of early stage tumors (odds ratio, 1.98; 95% CI, 1.68-2.33) and a reduced risk of death after correction for lead-time bias (hazard ratio, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.70-0.83). Inconsistent screening was associated with a slightly smaller increase in early detection of HCC (odds ratio, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.20-1.43) and a reduced risk of death (hazard ratio, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.83-0.90). After correction for lead- and length-time biases, higher proportions of patients with consistent (23%; 95% CI, 21%-25%) and inconsistent screening (19%; 95% CI, 19%-20%) survived for 3 years compared with patients without screening (13%; 95% CI, 12%-14%).

CONCLUSIONS

In an analysis of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program-Medicare database, we found HCC screening to be underused for patients with cirrhosis. This contributes to detection of liver tumors at later stages and shorter times of survival. However, the proportion of patients screened for HCC has increased over time.

Identifying cirrhosis, decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma in health administrative data: A validation study

Background

To evaluate screening and treatment strategies, large-scale real-world data on liver disease-related outcomes are needed. We sought to validate health administrative data for identification of cirrhosis, decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma among patients with known liver disease.

Methods

Primary patient data were abstracted from patients of the Toronto Center for Liver Disease with viral hepatitis (2006–2014), and all patients with liver disease from the Kingston Health Sciences Centre Hepatology Clinic (2013). We linked clinical information to health administrative data and tested a range of coding algorithms against the clinical reference standard.

Results

A total of 6,714 patients had primary chart data abstracted. A single physician visit code for cirrhosis was sensitive (98–99%), and a single hospital diagnostic code for cirrhosis was specific (91–96%). The most sensitive algorithm for decompensated cirrhosis was one cirrhosis code with any of: a hospital diagnostic code, death code, or procedure code for decompensation (range 88–99% across groups). The most specific was one cirrhosis code and one hospital diagnostic code (range 89–98% across groups). Two physician visit codes or a single hospital diagnostic code, death code, or procedure code combined with a code for cirrhosis were sensitive and specific for hepatocellular carcinoma (sensitivity 94–96%, specificity 93–98%).

Conclusion

These sensitive and specific algorithms can be used to define patient cohorts or detect clinical outcomes using health administrative data. Our results will facilitate research into the adequacy of screening and treatment for patients with chronic viral hepatitis or other liver diseases.

Anti-viral therapy is associated with improved survival but is underutilised in patients with hepatitis B virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma: real-world east and west experience

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) is the leading cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) worldwide. It remains incompletely understood in the real world how anti-viral therapy affects survival after HCC diagnosis.

METHODS

This was an international multicentre cohort study of 2518 HBV-related HCC cases diagnosed between 2000 and 2015. Cox proportional hazards models were utilised to estimate hazard ratios (HR) with 95% (CI) for anti-viral therapy and cirrhosis on patients' risk of death.

RESULTS

Approximately, 48% of patients received anti-viral therapy at any time, but only 17% were on therapy at HCC diagnosis (38% at US centres, 11% at Asian centres). Anti-viral therapy would have been indicated for >60% of the patients not on anti-viral therapy based on American criteria. Patients with cirrhosis had lower 5-year survival (34% vs 46%; P < 0.001) while patients receiving anti-viral therapy had increased 5-year survival compared to untreated patients (42% vs 25% with cirrhosis and 58% vs 36% without cirrhosis; P < 0.001 for both). Similar findings were seen for other patient subgroups by cancer stages and cancer treatment types. Anti-viral therapy was associated with a decrease in risk of death, whether started before or after HCC diagnosis (adjusted HR 0.62 and 0.79, respectively; P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Anti-viral therapy improved overall survival in patients with HBV-related HCC across cancer stages and treatment types but was underutilised at both US and Asia centres. Expanded use of anti-viral therapy in HBV-related HCC and better linkage-to-care for HBV patients are needed.

Intensity of surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma determines survival in patients at risk in a hepatitis B-endemic area

BACKGROUND

Data are insufficient regarding the survival benefit of surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

AIM

To investigate the effectiveness of HCC surveillance in a hepatitis B-endemic population.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study included 1402 consecutive patients who were newly diagnosed with HCC between 2005 and 2012 at a single tertiary hospital in Korea. The primary endpoint was overall survival. Lead-time and length-time biases were adjusted (sojourn time = 140 days) and sensitivity analyses were performed.

RESULTS

The most common aetiology was hepatitis B (80.4%). Cirrhosis was present in 78.2%. HCC was diagnosed during regular surveillance (defined as mean interval of ultrasonography <8 months, n = 834), irregular surveillance (n = 104) or nonsurveillance (n = 464). Patients in the regular surveillance group were diagnosed at earlier stages ([very] early stage, 64.4%) than the irregular surveillance (40.4%) or nonsurveillance (26.9%) groups and had more chance for curative treatments (52.4%) than the irregular surveillance (39.4%) or nonsurveillance (23.3%) groups (all P < 0.001). Mortality risk was significantly lower in the regular surveillance group (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.69; 95% [CI], 0.57-0.83) but not in the irregular surveillance group (aHR, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.69-1.28) compared with the nonsurveillance group after adjusting for confounding factors and lead-time. When the subjects were restricted to cirrhotic patients or Child-Pugh class A/B patients, similar results were obtained for mortality risk reduction between groups.

CONCLUSIONS

HCC surveillance was associated with longer survival owing to earlier diagnosis and curative treatment. Survival advantage was significant with regular surveillance but not with irregular surveillance.

Treatment for occult hepatocellular carcinoma: does it offer survival advantages over symptom-driven treatment?

OBJECTIVE

In order to claim a benefit of screen-based diagnosis for asymptomatic individuals, treatment of occult disease needs to offer survival advantages compared to the treatment of symptomatic disease, yet information on this issue is scarce with regard to hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) screening.

METHODS

A total of 3353 treatment-naïve, consecutive, newly diagnosed HCC patients [age: 57.9 ± 10.3, male: 2,689 (80.2%), hepatitis B virus: 2555 (76.2%)], diagnosed between 2010 and 2013 were analyzed. Data on the mode of detection was prospectively collected at the time of HCC diagnosis and was used to group patients into occult or symptomatic cases.

RESULTS

Overall, 643 (19.2%) patients were symptomatic cases. The proportion of patients undergoing resection, radiofrequency ablation or transplantation were lower in symptomatic cases than occult cases (20.8 vs. 56.2%, p < .001). Survival was better in occult cases than symptomatic cases (71.2 vs. 30.4% at three-years, p < .001), with a multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio of 1.40 (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.24-1.58). When stratified by tumor stage, a survival benefit was not observed for patients diagnosed at modified International Union Against Cancer (mUICC) stage I, but presenting symptoms were diverse and nonspecific. In a statistical model adjusting for potential lead-time bias, the association between overall survival and the mode of detection was markedly attenuated and was no longer significant when the treatment modality was included in the model (hazard ratio, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.82-1.07).

CONCLUSION

Treatment of occult disease offered a survival benefit to patients over symptomatic cases. These data support screening practices for asymptomatic individuals to diagnose occult HCC.

Independent Predictors of Mortality and Resource Utilization in Viral Hepatitis Related Hepatocellular Carcinoma

INTRODUCTION

Hepatitis B (HBV) and C viruses (HCV) are important causes of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Our aim was to assess mortality and resource utilization of patients with HCC-related to HBV and HCV.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER)-Medicare linked database (2001-2009) was used. Medicare claims included patient demographic information, diagnoses, treatment, procedures, ICD-9 codes, service dates, payments, coverage status, survival data, carrier claims, and Medicare Provider Analysis and Review (MEDPAR) data. HCC related to HBV/HCV and non-cancer controls with HBV/HCV were included. Pair-wise comparisons were made by t-tests and chi-square tests. Logistic regression models to estimate odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were used.

RESULTS

We included 2,711 cases of HCC (518 HBV, 2,193 HCV-related) and 5,130 non-cancer controls (1,321 HBV, 3,809 HCV). Between 2001-2009, HCC cases related to HBV and HCV increased. Compared to controls, HBV and HCV patients with HCC were older, more likely to be male (73.2% vs 48.9% and 57.1% vs. 50.5%), die within one-year (49.3% vs. 20.3% and 52.2% vs. 19.2%), have decompensated cirrhosis (44.8% vs. 6.9% and 53.9% vs. 10.4%) and have higher inpatient ($60.471 vs. $47.223 and $56.033 vs. $41.005) and outpatient charges ($3,840 vs. $3,328 and $3,251 vs. $2,096) (all P < 0.05). In two separate multivariate analyses, independent predictors of one-year mortality were older age, being male and the presence of decompensated cirrhosis.

CONCLUSIONS

The rate of viral hepatitis-related HCC is increasing. Mortality and resource utilization related to HBV and HCV-related HCC is substantial.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of treatment with non-curative or palliative intent for hepatocellular carcinoma in the real-world setting

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) presentation is heterogeneous necessitating a variety of therapeutic interventions with varying efficacies and associated prognoses. Poor prognostic patients often undergo non-curative palliative interventions including transarterial chemoembolization (TACE), sorafenib, chemotherapy, or purely supportive care. The decision to pursue one of many palliative interventions for HCC is complex and an economic evaluation comparing these interventions has not been done. This study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of non-curative palliative treatment strategies such as TACE alone or TACE+sorafenib, sorafenib alone, and non-sorafenib chemotherapy compared with no treatment or best supportive care (BSC) among patients diagnosed with HCC between 2007 and 2010 in a Canadian setting. Using person-level data, we estimated effectiveness in life years and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) along with total health care costs (2013 US dollars) from the health care payer’s perspective (3% annual discount). A net benefit regression approach accounting for baseline covariates with propensity score adjustment was used to calculate incremental net benefit to generate incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) and uncertainty measures. Among 1,172 identified patients diagnosed with HCC, 4.5%, 7.9%, and 5.6%, received TACE alone or TACE+sorafenib, sorafenib, and non-sorafenib chemotherapy clone, respectively. Compared with no treatment or BSC (81.9%), ICER estimates for TACE alone or TACE+sorafenib was $6,665/QALY (additional QALY: 0.47, additional cost: $3,120; 95% CI: -$18,800-$34,500/QALY). The cost-effectiveness acceptability curve demonstrated that if the relevant threshold was $50,000/QALY, TACE alone or TACE+sorafenib, non-sorafenib chemotherapy, and sorafenib alone, would have a cost-effectiveness probability of 99.7%, 46.6%, and 5.5%, respectively. Covariates associated with the incremental net benefit of treatments are age, sex, comorbidity, and cancer stage. Findings suggest that TACE with or without sorafenib is currently the most cost-effective active non-curative palliative treatment approach to HCC. Further research into new combination treatment strategies that afford the best tumor response is needed.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of potentially curative and combination treatments for hepatocellular carcinoma with person-level data in a Canadian setting

Patients with early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are potential candidates for curative treatments such as radiofrequency ablation (RFA), surgical resection (SR), or liver transplantation (LT), which have demonstrated a significant survival benefit. We aimed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of curative and combination treatment strategies among patients diagnosed with HCC during 2002-2010. This study used Ontario Cancer Registry-linked administrative data to estimate effectiveness and costs (2013 USD) of the treatment strategies from the healthcare payer's perspective. Multiple imputation by logistic regression was used to handle missing data. A net benefit regression approach of baseline important covariates and propensity score adjustment were used to calculate incremental net benefit to generate incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) and uncertainty measures. Among 2,222 patients diagnosed with HCC, 10.5%, 14.1%, and 10.3% received RFA, SR, and LT monotherapy, respectively; 0.5-3.1% dual treatments; and 0.5% triple treatments. Compared with no treatment (53.2%), transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) + RFA (average $2,465, 95% CI: -$20,000-$36,600/quality-adjusted life years [QALY]) or RFA monotherapy ($15,553, 95% CI: $3,500-$28,500/QALY) appears to be the most cost-effective modality with lowest ICER value. The cost-effectiveness acceptability curve showed that if the relevant threshold was $50,000/QALY, RFA monotherapy and TACE+ RFA would have a cost-effectiveness probability of 100%. Strategies using LT delivered the most additional QALYs and became cost-effective at a threshold of $77,000/QALY. Our findings found that TACE+ RFA dual treatment or RFA monotherapy appears to be the most cost-effective curative treatment for patients with potential early stage of HCC in Ontario. These findings highlight the importance of identifying and measuring differential benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of alternative HCC curative treatments in order to evaluate whether they are providing good value for money in the real world.

Effect of ultrasonography surveillance in patients with liver cancer: a population-based longitudinal study

OBJECTIVE

Liver cancer is a growing global public health problem. Ultrasonography is an imaging tool widely used for the early diagnosis of liver cancer. However, the effect of ultrasonography surveillance (US) on the survival of patients with liver cancer is unknown. Therefore, this study examined the association between survival and US frequency during the 2 years preceding patients' liver cancer diagnosis.

METHODS

This population-based longitudinal study was conducted in Taiwan, a region with high liver cancer incidence, by using the National Health Insurance Research Database. We compared survival between patients who received US three times or more (≥3 group) and less than three times (<3 group) during the 2 years preceding their liver cancer diagnosis, and identified the predictors for the ≥3 group.

RESULTS

This study enrolled 4621 patients with liver cancer who had died between 1997 and 2010. The median survival rate was higher in the ≥3 group (1.42 years) than in the <3 group (0.51 years). Five-year survival probability was also significantly higher in the ≥3 group (14.4%) than in the <3 group (7.7%). The multivariate logistic regression results showed that the three most common positive predictors for receiving three or more US sessions were indications of viral hepatitis, gallbladder diseases and kidney-urinary-bladder diseases; the most common negative predictors for receiving three or more US sessions were male sex and indications of abdominal pain.

CONCLUSION

Patients with liver cancer who received US three times or more during the 2 years preceding their liver cancer diagnosis exhibited a higher 5-year survival probability.

Should AFP (or any biomarkers) be used for HCC surveillance?

A PURPOSE OF REVIEW

To address the controversy around the use of biomarkers for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance in individuals with cirrhosis or chronic hepatitis B who are at risk for development of liver cancer.

B RECENT FINDINGS

Recent studies suggest that surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma is beneficial, even after adjustment for lead time and other biases. Alpha fetoprotein (AFP) is complementary to ultrasound (US) in surveillance, particularly in obese patients and patients with infiltrative tumors. US and AFP are both associated with harms to patients from false positive over-diagnosis, with US appearing to cause greater harms. Including patient demographic characteristics and additional biomarkers into diagnostic models is beneficial. Recent studies emphasize the advantage of time trends in biomarkers over single cross-sectional measurements.

C SUMMARY

AFP and other biomarkers are complementary to US in surveillance for HCC, especially when applied in models including patient variables and incorporating time trends in biomarker levels. With advances in genetic and molecular analysis of tumors, we may be poised at the cusp of a revolution in HCC surveillance.

Trends in health care utilization and costs attributable to hepatocellular carcinoma, 2002-2009: a population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

The incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (hcc) and the complexity of its diagnosis and treatment are increasing. We estimated trends in net health care utilization, costs of care attributable to hcc in Ontario, and rate ratios of resource use at various stages of care.

METHODS

This population-based retrospective cohort study identified hcc patients and non-cancer control subjects, and health care resource utilization between 2002 and 2009. Generalized estimating equations were then used to estimate net health care utilization (hcc patients vs. the matched control subjects) and net costs of care attributable to hcc. Generalized linear models were used to analyze rate ratios of resource use.

RESULTS

We identified 2832 hcc patients and 2808 matched control subjects. In comparison with the control subjects, hcc patients generally used a greater number of health care services. Overall, the mean net cost of care per 30 patient-days (2013 Canadian dollars) attributable to outpatient visits and hospitalizations was highest in the pre-diagnosis (1 year before diagnosis), initial (1st year after diagnosis), and end-of-life (last 6 months before death, short-term survivors) phases. Mean net homecare costs were highest in the end-of-life phase (long-term survivors). In the end-of-life phase (short-term survivors), mean net costs attributable to outpatient visits and total services significantly increased to $14,220 from $1,547 and to $33,121 from $14,450 (2008-2009 and 2002-2003 respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

In hcc, our study found increasing resource use and net costs of care, particularly in the end-of-life phase among short-term survivors. Our findings offer a basis for resource allocation decisions in the area of cancer prevention and control.