Warming Ocean Conditions Relate to Increased Trophic Requirements of Threatened and Endangered Salmon

Identification of infectious agents in early marine Chinook and Coho salmon associated with cohort survival

Recent decades have seen an increased appreciation for the role infectious diseases can play in mass mortality events across a diversity of marine taxa. At the same time many Pacific salmon populations have declined in abundance as a result of reduced marine survival. However, few studies have explicitly considered the potential role pathogens could play in these declines. Using a multi-year dataset spanning 59 pathogen taxa in Chinook and Coho salmon sampled along the British Columbia coast, we carried out an exploratory analysis to quantify evidence for associations between pathogen prevalence and cohort survival and between pathogen load and body condition. While a variety of pathogens had moderate to strong negative correlations with body condition or survival for one host species in one season, we found that Tenacibaculum maritimum and Piscine orthoreovirus had consistently negative associations with body condition in both host species and seasons and were negatively associated with survival for Chinook salmon collected in the fall and winter. Our analyses, which offer the most comprehensive examination of associations between pathogen prevalence and Pacific salmon survival to date, suggest that pathogens in Pacific salmon warrant further attention, especially those whose distribution and abundance may be influenced by anthropogenic stressors.

A salmon diet database for the North Pacific Ocean

The North Pacific Marine Salmon Diet Database is an open-access relational database built to centralize and make accessible salmon diet data through a standardized database structure. The initial data contribution contains 21,862 observations of salmon diet, and associated salmon biological parameters, prey biological parameters, and environmental data from the North Pacific Ocean. The data come from 907 unique spatial areas and mostly fall within two time periods, 1959-1969 and 1987-1997, during which there are more data available compared to other time periods. Data were extracted from 62 sources identified through a systematic literature review, targeting peer-reviewed and gray literature. The purpose of this database is to consolidate data into a common format to address gaps in our ecological understanding of the North Pacific Ocean, particularly with respect to salmon. This database can be used to address a variety of questions regarding salmon foraging, productivity, and marine survival. The North Pacific Marine Salmon Diet Database will continue to grow in the future as more data are digitized and become available.

Climate change effects on biodiversity, ecosystems, ecosystem services, and natural resource management in the United States

Climate change is a pervasive and growing global threat to biodiversity and ecosystems. Here, we present the most up-to-date assessment of climate change impacts on biodiversity, ecosystems, and ecosystem services in the U.S. and implications for natural resource management. We draw from the 4th National Climate Assessment to summarize observed and projected changes to ecosystems and biodiversity, explore linkages to important ecosystem services, and discuss associated challenges and opportunities for natural resource management. We find that species are responding to climate change through changes in morphology and behavior, phenology, and geographic range shifts, and these changes are mediated by plastic and evolutionary responses. Responses by species and populations, combined with direct effects of climate change on ecosystems (including more extreme events), are resulting in widespread changes in productivity, species interactions, vulnerability to biological invasions, and other emergent properties. Collectively, these impacts alter the benefits and services that natural ecosystems can provide to society. Although not all impacts are negative, even positive changes can require costly societal adjustments. Natural resource managers need proactive, flexible adaptation strategies that consider historical and future outlooks to minimize costs over the long term. Many organizations are beginning to explore these approaches, but implementation is not yet prevalent or systematic across the nation.

Spatial synchrony in the response of a long range migratory species (Salmo salar) to climate change in the North Atlantic Ocean

A major challenge in understanding the response of populations to climate change is to separate the effects of local drivers acting independently on specific populations, from the effects of global drivers that impact multiple populations simultaneously and thereby synchronize their dynamics. We investigated the environmental drivers and the demographic mechanisms of the widespread decline in marine survival rates of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) over the last four decades. We developed a hierarchical Bayesian life cycle model to quantify the spatial synchrony in the marine survival of 13 large groups of populations (called stock units, SU) from two continental stock groups (CSG) in North America (NA) and Southern Europe (SE) over the period 1971-2014. We found strong coherence in the temporal variation in postsmolt marine survival among the 13 SU of NA and SE. A common North Atlantic trend explains 37% of the temporal variability of the survivals for the 13 SU and declines by a factor of 1.8 over the 1971-2014 time series. Synchrony in survival trends is stronger between SU within each CSG. The common trends at the scale of NA and SE capture 60% and 42% of the total variance of temporal variations, respectively. Temporal variations of the postsmolt survival are best explained by the temporal variations of sea surface temperature (SST, negative correlation) and net primary production indices (PP, positive correlation) encountered by salmon in common domains during their marine migration. Specifically, in the Labrador Sea/Grand Banks for populations from NA, 26% and 24% of variance is captured by SST and PP, respectively and in the Norwegian Sea for populations from SE, 21% and 12% of variance is captured by SST and PP, respectively. The findings support the hypothesis of a response of salmon populations to large climate-induced changes in the North Atlantic simultaneously impacting populations from distant continental habitats.

Extreme mortality and reproductive failure of common murres resulting from the northeast Pacific marine heatwave of 2014-2016

About 62,000 dead or dying common murres (Uria aalge), the trophically dominant fish-eating seabird of the North Pacific, washed ashore between summer 2015 and spring 2016 on beaches from California to Alaska. Most birds were severely emaciated and, so far, no evidence for anything other than starvation was found to explain this mass mortality. Three-quarters of murres were found in the Gulf of Alaska and the remainder along the West Coast. Studies show that only a fraction of birds that die at sea typically wash ashore, and we estimate that total mortality approached 1 million birds. About two-thirds of murres killed were adults, a substantial blow to breeding populations. Additionally, 22 complete reproductive failures were observed at multiple colonies region-wide during (2015) and after (2016-2017) the mass mortality event. Die-offs and breeding failures occur sporadically in murres, but the magnitude, duration and spatial extent of this die-off, associated with multi-colony and multi-year reproductive failures, is unprecedented and astonishing. These events co-occurred with the most powerful marine heatwave on record that persisted through 2014-2016 and created an enormous volume of ocean water (the "Blob") from California to Alaska with temperatures that exceeded average by 2-3 standard deviations. Other studies indicate that this prolonged heatwave reduced phytoplankton biomass and restructured zooplankton communities in favor of lower-calorie species, while it simultaneously increased metabolically driven food demands of ectothermic forage fish. In response, forage fish quality and quantity diminished. Similarly, large ectothermic groundfish were thought to have increased their demand for forage fish, resulting in greater top-predator demands for diminished forage fish resources. We hypothesize that these bottom-up and top-down forces created an "ectothermic vise" on forage species leading to their system-wide scarcity and resulting in mass mortality of murres and many other fish, bird and mammal species in the region during 2014-2017.