The Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of a Four-Month Regimen for First-Line Treatment of Active Tuberculosis in South Africa

A systematic review of economic evaluations of pharmacological treatments for active tuberculosis

Objectives

The continuing spread of tuberculosis (TB) worldwide, especially drug-resistant TB, poses a major challenge to healthcare systems globally. Addressing this requires appraising the cost effectiveness of existing pharmacological interventions against TB to identify key drivers of cost effectiveness and value and guide pharmaceutical innovation and novel drug regimen development.

Methods

Studies were identified from a search of six database: MEDLINE MEDLINE-In Process, MEDLINE Epub Ahead of Print, EMBASE, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and Econlit in July 2022. Two reviewers independently assessed all identified studies and reports using pre-defined inclusion/exclusion criteria. Study methodological quality was assessed, data were extracted in standard tables, and results were narratively synthesized.

Results

Overall, 991 studies and 53 HTA reports were identified with 20 studies and 3 HTA reports meeting the inclusion criteria. Quality assessment of the 20 studies identified 4 with minor limitations, while the remainder were assessed as having potentially or very serious limitations. Sixteen studies conducted cost-utility analyses, 6 conducted cost-effectiveness analyses, and 2 conducted cost-comparison analyses with some studies performing multiple analyses. The majority (n = 16) were model-based. Eleven studies analyzed the cost-effectiveness of bedaquiline, 6 compared shorter to longer/standard duration regimens, 2 assessed ethambutol, and 1 assessed delamanid. Key drivers of cost effectiveness were drug costs, the number of TB cases, the portion of cases with sputum culture conversion, treatment delivery costs, and treatment efficacy. Common value elements considered included adverse events, drug resistance, and improving treatment adherence.

Conclusion

Our results suggest that out of the pharmacological treatments assessed, bedaquiline is likely a cost-effective addition to existing treatment regimens/background treatment regimens, while ethambutol is not likely to be. Newer shorter regimens, even if more costly, seem to be more cost-effective compared to longer regimens. These results illustrate the limited number of novel cost-effective pharmacological interventions and highlight a need to develop new drugs/regimens against TB to overcome resistance, taking into account the key drivers of cost effectiveness and other value attributes identified from this review.

Impact of interventions for tuberculosis prevention and care in South Africa - a systematic review of mathematical modelling studies

BACKGROUND

Substantial additional efforts are needed to prevent, find and successfully treat tuberculosis (TB) in South Africa (SA). In thepast decade, an increasing body of mathematical modelling research has investigated the population-level impact of TB prevention and careinterventions. To date, this evidence has not been assessed in the SA context.

OBJECTIVE

To systematically review mathematical modelling studies that estimated the impact of interventions towards the World HealthOrganization's End TB Strategy targets for TB incidence, TB deaths and catastrophic costs due to TB in SA.

METHODS

We searched the PubMed, Web of Science and Scopus databases for studies that used transmission-dynamic models of TB in SAand reported on at least one of the End TB Strategy targets at population level. We described study populations, type of interventions andtheir target groups, and estimates of impact and other key findings. For studies of country-level interventions, we estimated average annualpercentage declines (AAPDs) in TB incidence and mortality attributable to the intervention.

RESULTS

We identified 29 studies that met our inclusion criteria, of which 7 modelled TB preventive interventions (vaccination,antiretroviral treatment (ART) for HIV, TB preventive treatment (TPT)), 12 considered interventions along the care cascade for TB(screening/case finding, reducing initial loss to follow-up, diagnostic and treatment interventions), and 10 modelled combinationsof preventive and care-cascade interventions. Only one study focused on reducing catastrophic costs due to TB. The highest impactof a single intervention was estimated in studies of TB vaccination, TPT among people living with HIV, and scale-up of ART. Forpreventive interventions, AAPDs for TB incidence varied between 0.06% and 7.07%, and for care-cascade interventions between 0.05%and 3.27%.

CONCLUSION

We describe a body of mathematical modelling research with a focus on TB prevention and care in SA. We found higherestimates of impact reported in studies of preventive interventions, highlighting the need to invest in TB prevention in SA. However, studyheterogeneity and inconsistent baseline scenarios limit the ability to compare impact estimates between studies. Combinations, rather thansingle interventions, are likely needed to reach the End TB Strategy targets in SA.

Cost Effectiveness of a Shorter Moxifloxacin Based Regimen for Treating Drug Sensitive Tuberculosis in India

Globally efforts are underway to shorten the existing 6-month tuberculosis (TB) treatment regimen for drug-sensitive patients, which would be equally effective and safe. At present, there is a lack of evidence on the cost implications of a shorter 4-month TB regimen in India. This economic modeling study was conducted in the Indian context with a high TB burden. We used a hybrid economic model comprising of a decision tree and Markov analysis. The study estimated the incremental costs, life years (LYs), and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained by the introduction of a Moxifloxacin-based shorter 4-month treatment regimen for pulmonary TB patients. The outcomes are expressed in incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) per QALYs gained. The cost per case to be treated under the 4-month regimen was USD 145.94 whereas for the 6-month regimen it was USD 150.39. A shorter 4-month TB regimen was cost-saving with USD 4.62 per LY and USD 5.29 per QALY. One-way sensitivity analysis revealed that the cost of the drugs for the 4-month regimen, hospitalization cost for adverse drug reactions, and human resources incurred for the 6-month regimen had a higher influence on the ICER. The probability sensitivity analysis highlighted that the joint incremental cost and effectiveness using QALY were less costly and more effective for 67% of the iteration values. The cost-effectiveness acceptability curve highlights that the 4-month regimen was dominant to both patients and the National TB Elimination Programme in India as compared to the 6-month regimen at different cost-effectiveness threshold values.

A Systematic Review of Economic Evaluations of Active Tuberculosis Treatments

Background: The disease burden of active tuberculosis (TB) is considerable, but systematic reviews of economic evaluations of active TB treatments are scarce. Methods: PubMed, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library databases were used to search for articles on cost-effectiveness analysis or cost-utility analysis that economically evaluated active TB treatments, which were then systematically reviewed by two independent reviewers. We extracted vital components of the included studies, such as country, population, intervention/comparator, primary outcome, values of outcomes, thresholds, model type, time horizon, and health states included in the model. Results: Seventeen studies were included in this systematic review. Thirteen dealt with interventions of medications, and the remaining four compared care strategies. The Markov model was the most commonly used tool to compare medications, whereas studies on care plans mainly used decision trees. The most commonly used primary outcome was disability-adjusted life years, followed by quality-adjusted life years. For treatment-naïve TB, the 4-month regimen was more cost-effective than the 6-month regimen mainly in low- and middle-income countries. For multidrug-resistant TB, a bedaquiline-based regimen was cost-effective. For multidrug-resistant TB, decentralized care that employed the use of home or mobile devices was more cost-effective than hospital-based centralized care in low- and middle-income countries. Conclusion: New treatment strategies to improve therapeutic outcomes by enhancing treatment adherence, such as regimens with shorter durations (2 or 4 months) and decentralized care, or new anti-TB agents (e.g., bedaquiline) have been suggested as cost-effective interventions for active TB. This review provides information on the economic evaluation of active TB from good-quality studies, thus aiding the future economic evaluation of active TB.

Shortened Tuberculosis Treatment for People with HIV in South Africa. A Model-based Evaluation and Cost-effectiveness Analysis

Rationale: Recent tuberculosis treatment trials failed to show that some 4-month (4m) regimens were noninferior to conventional 6-month (6m) regimens for a composite clinical outcome. Novel shortened regimens may still have important clinical and economic benefits in populations with high loss to follow-up (LTFU) and in subgroups such as people with human immunodeficiency virus.Objectives: To identify scenarios in which a novel 4m regimen would be preferred to a conventional 6m regimen for treatment of drug-susceptible tuberculosis in people with human immunodeficiency virus in South Africa, in terms of short-term and long-term clinical and economic outcomes.Methods: We used the Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications-International microsimulation model to project outcomes modeled on participants in the OFLOTUB trial. For calibration purposes, we did a base case analysis by applying trial-informed parameters for the 4m/6m regimens, including monthly LTFU during treatment (0.68%/0.83%), average monthly tuberculosis recurrence (0.65%/0.31%), and monthly drug costs (U.S. dollars [USD]25.90/3.70). We then evaluated different scenarios and 4m regimen characteristics, varying key parameters, including LTFU (informed by observational cohort data), recurrence, and cost. We projected outcomes, including 2-year mortality and life expectancy. We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis, evaluating the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of a 4m versus 6m regimen.Results: In the base case model analysis, risk of the composite unfavorable outcome in the 4m/6m groups was 19.8%/15.9%, similar to the trial; projected life expectancies were 22.1/22.3 years. In analyses of alternative scenarios and 4m regimen characteristics, a 4m regimen yielded lower risk of the composite unfavorable outcome than the conventional 6m regimen if LTFU increased to greater than 3.5%/mo or if average recurrence after a 4m regimen decreased to less than 0.45%/mo, and it yielded higher life expectancy if LTFU was greater than 3.5%/mo or if recurrence was less than 0.5%/mo. A 4m regimen was not cost-effective in the base case but became cost-effective (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio <USD940/yr of life saved) in two-way sensitivity analysis; for example, if LTFU was greater than or equal to 5.3%/mo and either average recurrence was less than or equal to 0.5%/mo or drug cost was less than or equal to USD15/mo.Conclusions: A novel shortened tuberculosis treatment regimen could improve outcomes such as survival despite conferring a higher recurrence risk, particularly in settings where LTFU is higher than that seen in recent trials.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of BCG Vaccination against Tuberculosis in Indonesia: A Model-Based Study

Bacillus Calmette–Guerin (BCG), the only available vaccine for tuberculosis (TB), has been applied for decades. The Indonesian government recently introduced a national TB disease control programme that includes several action plans, notably enhanced vaccination coverage, which can be strengthened through underpinning its favourable cost-effectiveness. We designed a Markov model to assess the cost-effectiveness of Indonesia’s current BCG vaccination programme. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were evaluated from the perspectives of both society and healthcare. The robustness of the analysis was confirmed through univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA). Using epidemiological data compiled for Indonesia, BCG vaccination at a price US$14 was estimated to be a cost-effective strategy in controlling TB disease. From societal and healthcare perspectives, ICERs were US$104 and US$112 per quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), respectively. The results were robust for variations of most variables in the univariate analysis. Notably, the vaccine’s effectiveness regarding disease protection, vaccination costs, and case detection rates were key drivers for cost-effectiveness. The PSA results indicated that vaccination was cost-effective even at US$175 threshold in 95% of cases, approximating the monthly GDP per capita. Our findings suggest that this strategy was highly cost-effective and merits prioritization and extension within the national TB programme. Our results may be relevant for other high endemic low- and middle-income countries.

Managing Uncertainties Due to Limited Evidence in Economic Evaluations of Novel Anti-Tuberculosis Regimens: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

Limited evidence for the implementation of new health technologies in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) may lead to uncertainties in economic evaluations and cause the evaluations to produce inaccurate information for decision making. We performed a systematic review of economic evaluations on implementing new short-course regimens (SCR) for drug-sensitive and drug-resistant tuberculosis (TB), to explore how uncertainties due to the limited evidence in the studies were dealt with and to identify useful information for decision making from these studies.

METHODS

We searched in electronic databases PubMed, EMBASE, NHSEED, and CEA registry for economic evaluations addressing the implementation of new anti-TB SCRs in LMICs published until September 2018. We included studies addressing both the cost and outcomes of implementing a new regimen for drug-sensitive and drug-resistant TB with a shorter treatment duration than the currently used regimens. The quality of the included studies was assessed using The Consensus Health Economic Criteria checklist. We extracted information from the included studies on uncertainties and how they were managed. The management of uncertainties was compared with approaches used in early health technology assessments (HTAs), including sensitivity analyses and pragmatic scenario analyses. We extracted information that could be useful for decision making such as cost-effectiveness conclusions, and barriers to implementing the intervention.

RESULTS

Four of the 322 studies found in the search met the eligibility criteria. Three studies were model-based studies that investigated the cost effectiveness of a new first-line SCR. One study was an empirical study investigating the cost effectiveness of new regimens for drug-resistant TB. The model-based studies addressed uncertainties due to limited evidence through various sensitivity analyses as in early HTAs. They performed a deterministic sensitivity analysis and found the main drivers of the cost-effectiveness outcomes, that is, the rate of treatment default and treatment delivery costs. Additionally, two of the model-based studies performed a pragmatic scenario analysis and found a potential barrier to implementing the new first-line SCR, that is, a weak health system with a low TB care utilization rate. The empirical study only performed a few scenario analyses with different regimen prices and volumes of TB care utilization. Therefore, the study could only provide information on the main cost drivers.

CONCLUSION

Using an approach similar to that used in early HTAs, where uncertainties due to the limited evidence are rigorously explored upfront, the economic evaluations could inform not only the decision to implement the intervention but also how to manage risks and implementation barriers.

Cost-effectiveness and resource implications of aggressive action on tuberculosis in China, India, and South Africa: a combined analysis of nine models

BACKGROUND

The post-2015 End TB Strategy sets global targets of reducing tuberculosis incidence by 50% and mortality by 75% by 2025. We aimed to assess resource requirements and cost-effectiveness of strategies to achieve these targets in China, India, and South Africa.

METHODS

We examined intervention scenarios developed in consultation with country stakeholders, which scaled up existing interventions to high but feasible coverage by 2025. Nine independent modelling groups collaborated to estimate policy outcomes, and we estimated the cost of each scenario by synthesising service use estimates, empirical cost data, and expert opinion on implementation strategies. We estimated health effects (ie, disability-adjusted life-years averted) and resource implications for 2016-35, including patient-incurred costs. To assess resource requirements and cost-effectiveness, we compared scenarios with a base case representing continued current practice.

FINDINGS

Incremental tuberculosis service costs differed by scenario and country, and in some cases they more than doubled existing funding needs. In general, expansion of tuberculosis services substantially reduced patient-incurred costs and, in India and China, produced net cost savings for most interventions under a societal perspective. In all three countries, expansion of access to care produced substantial health gains. Compared with current practice and conventional cost-effectiveness thresholds, most intervention approaches seemed highly cost-effective.

INTERPRETATION

Expansion of tuberculosis services seems cost-effective for high-burden countries and could generate substantial health and economic benefits for patients, although substantial new funding would be required. Further work to determine the optimal intervention mix for each country is necessary.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Emerging drugs and alternative possibilities in the treatment of tuberculosis

INTRODUCTION

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a global health problem. Drug resistance, treatment duration, complexity, and adverse drug reactions associated with anti-TB regimens are associated with treatment failure, prolonged infectiousness and relapse. With the current set of anti-TB drugs the goal to end TB has not been met. New drugs and new treatment regimens are needed to eradicate TB.

AREAS COVERED

Literature was explored to select publications on drugs currently in phase II and phase III trials. These include new chemical entities, immunotherapy, established drugs in new treatment regimens and vaccines for the prophylaxis of TB.

EXPERT OPINION

Well designed trials, with detailed pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic analysis, in which information on drug exposure and drug susceptibility of the entire anti-TB regimen is included, in combination with long-term follow-up will provide relevant data to optimize TB treatment. The new multi arm multistage trial design could be used to test new combinations of compounds, immunotherapy and therapeutic vaccines. This new approach will both reduce the number of patients exposed to inferior treatment and the financial burden. Moreover, it will speed up drug evaluation. Considering the investments involved in development of new drugs it is worthwhile to thoroughly investigate existing, non-TB drugs in new regimens.