What Is the Association between Absolute Child Poverty, Poor Governance, and Natural Disasters? A Global Comparison of Some of the Realities of Climate Change

The impact of climate change on the risk factors for tuberculosis: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis (TB) continues to pose a major public health risk in many countries. The current incidence of disease exceeds guidelines proposed by the World Health Organisation and United Nations. Whilst the relationship between climate change and TB has surfaced in recent literature, it remains neglected in global agendas. There is a need to acknowledge TB as a climate-sensitive disease to facilitate its eradication.

OBJECTIVE

To review epidemiological and prediction model studies that explore how climate change may affect the risk factors for TB, as outlined in the Global Tuberculosis Report 2021: HIV infection, diabetes mellitus, undernutrition, overcrowding, poverty, and indoor air pollution.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic literature search of PubMed, Embase, and Scopus databases to identify studies examining the association between climate variables and the risk factors for TB. Each study that satisfied the inclusion criteria was assessed for quality and ethics. Studies then underwent vote-counting and were categorised based on whether an association was found.

RESULTS

53 studies met inclusion criteria and were included in our review. Vote-counting revealed that two out of two studies found a positive association between the examined climate change proxy and HIV, nine out of twelve studies for diabetes, eight out of seventeen studies for undernutrition, four out of five studies for overcrowding, twelve out of fifteen studies for poverty and one out of three studies for indoor air pollution.

DISCUSSION

We found evidence supporting a positive association between climate change and each of the discussed risk factors for TB, excluding indoor air pollution. Our findings suggest that climate change is likely to affect the susceptibility of individuals to TB by increasing the prevalence of its underlying risk factors, particularly in developing countries. This is an evolving field of research that requires further attention in the scientific community.

Uncovering heterogeneous associations of disaster-related traumatic experiences with subsequent mental health problems: A machine learning approach

AIM

Understanding the differential mental health effects of traumatic experiences is important to identify particularly vulnerable subpopulations. We examined the heterogeneous associations between disaster-related traumatic experiences and postdisaster mental health, using a novel machine learning-based causal inference approach.

METHODS

Data were from a prospective cohort study of Japanese older adults in an area severely affected by the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake. The baseline survey was conducted 7 months before the disaster and the 2 follow-up surveys were conducted 2.5 and 5.5 years after (n = 1150 to n = 1644 depending on the exposure-outcome combinations). As disaster-related traumatic experiences, we assessed complete home loss and loss of loved ones. Using the generalized random forest algorithm, we estimated conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) of the disaster damages on postdisaster mental health outcomes to examine the heterogeneous associations by 51 predisaster characteristics of the individuals.

RESULTS

We found that, even when there was no population average association between disaster-related trauma and subsequent mental health outcomes, some subgroups experienced severe impacts. We also identified and compared characteristics of the most and least vulnerable groups (ie, top versus bottom deciles of the estimated CATEs). While there were some unique patterns specific to each exposure-outcome combination, the most vulnerable group tended to be from lower socioeconomic backgrounds with preexisting depressive symptoms for many exposure-outcome combinations.

CONCLUSIONS

We found considerable heterogeneity in the association between disaster-related traumatic experiences and subsequent mental health problems.

GDIS, a global dataset of geocoded disaster locations

This article presents a new open source extension to the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) that allows researchers, for the first time, to explore and make use of subnational, geocoded data on major disasters triggered by natural hazards. The Geocoded Disasters (GDIS) dataset provides spatial geometry in the form of GIS polygons and centroid latitude and longitude coordinates for each administrative entity listed as a disaster location in the EM-DAT database. In total, GDIS contains spatial information on 39,953 locations for 9,924 unique disasters occurring worldwide between 1960 and 2018. The dataset facilitates connecting the EM-DAT database to other geographic data sources on the subnational level to enable rigorous empirical analyses of disaster determinants and impacts.

Measurement(s)	geographic location • geocoded disaster locations
Technology Type(s)	digital curation • geocoding
Factor Type(s)	year that the disaster has occurred
Sample Characteristic - Environment	climate system
Sample Characteristic - Location	global • subnational administrative areas

Machine-accessible metadata file describing the reported data: 10.6084/m9.figshare.13177022

Assessing sustainable development prospects through remote sensing: A review

The Earth's ecosystems face severe environmental stress from unsustainable socioeconomic development linked to population growth, urbanization, and industrialization. Governments worldwide are interested in sustainability measures to address these issues. Remote sensing allows for the measurement, integration, and presentation of useful information for effective decision-making at various temporal and spatial scales. Scientists and decision-makers have endorsed extensive use of remote sensing to bridge gaps among disciplines and achieve sustainable development. This paper presents an extensive review of remote sensing technology used to support sustainable development efforts, with a focus on natural resource management and assessment of natural hazards. We further explore how remote sensing can be used in a cross-cutting, interdisciplinary manner to support decision-making aimed at addressing sustainable development challenges. Remote sensing technology has improved significantly in terms of sensor resolution, data acquisition time, and accessibility over the past several years. This technology has also been widely applied to address key issues and challenges in sustainability. Furthermore, an evaluation of the suitability and limitations of various satellite-derived indices proposed in the literature for assessing sustainable development goals showed that these older indices still perform reasonably well. Nevertheless, with advancements in sensor radiometry and resolution, they were less exploited and new indices are less explored.

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Effectiveness of remote sensing tools to address sustainability issues.

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Decadal changes in remote sensing research to address various challenges.

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There is a need to explore new indices with the development of new satellite sensors.

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Remote sensing-based information to policymakers for decision making.

Students' preparedness for disasters in schools: a systematic review protocol

INTRODUCTION

Children are one of the most vulnerable groups in disasters. Improving students' knowledge and skills to prepare for disasters can play a major role in children's health. School as a place to teach children can make a significant contribution to provide the necessary skills. This study aims to identify the effects, strengths and weaknesses of interventions in schools to prepare children for disasters.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We use Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines to develop a protocol for this systematic review. The included studies will report on the results of interventions targeting 'schoolchildren' defined as individuals between 4 and under 18 years old studying in schools. Different electronic databases will be used for a comprehensive literature search, including MEDLINE, Web of Science, CINAHL, PsycINFO, Cochrane Register of Controlled Trials and EMBASE to identify the records that match the mentioned inclusion criteria published till December 2020. The main search terms are 'disaster', 'preparedness', 'children' and 'school'. Four types of data will be extracted from the qualified studies including study characteristics (study design, year of publication and geographical region where the study was conducted), participant characteristics (sample size, age and gender), intervention characteristics (aim of intervention, intervention facilitators and barriers) and intervention outcomes. The quality appraisal of the selected papers will be conducted using Cochrane Collaboration's Risk of Bias for quantitative studies and Critical Appraisal Skills Programme checklist for qualitative studies. We use a narrative synthesis for this systematic review. The narrative synthesis refers to an approach to systematic reviews which focuses mostly on applying words and texts to summarise and explain findings.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This paper is a part of a Ph.D. thesis of Hamed Seddighi at University of Social welfare and Rehabilitation Sciences with ethics code IR.USWR.REC.1399.008 approved by the Ethics Committee of the above-mentioned university.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42020146536.

Brain diseases in changing climate

Climate change is one of the biggest and most urgent challenges for the 21st century. Rising average temperatures and ocean levels, altered precipitation patterns and increased occurrence of extreme weather events affect not only the global landscape and ecosystem, but also human health. Multiple environmental factors influence the onset and severity of human diseases and changing climate may have a great impact on these factors. Climate shifts disrupt the quantity and quality of water, increase environmental pollution, change the distribution of pathogens and severely impacts food production - all of which are important regarding public health. This paper focuses on brain health and provides an overview of climate change impacts on risk factors specific to brain diseases and disorders. We also discuss emerging hazards in brain health due to mitigation and adaptation strategies in response to climate changes.

Structural adjustment, state capacity and child health: evidence from IMF programmes

BACKGROUND

Consensus is growing that policy reform programmes by the International Monetary Fund (IMF)-an international organization mandated with upholding global financial stability and assisting countries in economic turmoil-produce adverse effects on public health. However, this consensus is unclear about which policies of these programmes underlie these effects. This article fills parts of this gap by examining the impact of four kinds of IMF policies (fiscal policy, public-sector employment, privatization of state-owned enterprises and price liberalization) on public-health expenditure, child vaccination and child mortality.

METHODS

We conducted time-series cross-section analyses for up to 128 developing countries over the 1980-2014 period using observational data on health outcomes and IMF conditionality for different policy areas. IMF effectiveness research faces two types of potential biases: self-selection into IMF programmes and IMF policy conditions. We deployed instrumental variables in a seemingly unrelated regression framework to address both types of endogeneity, besides traditional remedies such as the use of fixed effects on countries and years.

RESULTS

IMF policy conditions on public-sector employment are negatively related to child health. A change from the minimum to the maximum number of such policy conditions decreases vaccination (which ranges from 0 to 100) by 10.97% [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.16 to 20.79]. This effect is robust against different sets of control variables. In addition, IMF programmes increase the share of government expenditure devoted to public health in developing countries by 0.91 percentage points (95% CI: 0.15 to 1.68).

CONCLUSIONS

These findings suggest that IMF policies-particularly those that require public-sector reforms-undermine health by weakening the capacity of states to deliver vaccination. Therefore, international financial institutions need to increase their awareness of the public-health impact of their policy prescriptions. Strengthening state capacity in times of economic crisis would ensure that increased health spending also delivers quality healthcare.

The impact of rising food prices on obesity in women: a longitudinal analysis of 31 low-income and middle-income countries from 2000 to 2014

OBJECTIVES

To examine whether changes in food prices are associated with changes in obesity prevalence among women in developing countries, and assess effect modification by individual socioeconomic status (SES).

METHODS

Longitudinal study of country-level food price inflation temporally and geographically linked to anthropometric data on non-pregnant adult women (n = 295,984) in 31 low-income and middle-income countries over the 2000-2014 time period, using separate multivariable multilevel growth models of five SES indicators. Post-estimation analysis computed the relationship between food price inflation and predicted mean probabilities of being obese, by SES.

RESULTS

Rising food price inflation was strongly associated with women's obesity prevalence, and SES consistently modified the relationship. Regardless of indicator used, higher food price inflation was positively associated with obesity among women in top SES categories, but was flat or negative among women in low SES categories, averaging over time. The SES differences were widest across educational strata and were most pronounced when food price inflation was highest. Overall, for every 1-unit increase in food price inflation, predicted mean obesity prevalence was between 0.02 and 0.06 percentage points greater in women of high SES compared to low SES women.

CONCLUSION

There is a strong link between food price inflation and obesity in adult women in developing countries which is clearly modified by individuals' SES. Greater food price inflation was associated with greater obesity prevalence only among women in higher SES groups, who may be net food buyers most at risk of obesity in low-income and middle-income countries.

Global Emergency Medicine: A Review of the Literature From 2016

OBJECTIVES

The Global Emergency Medicine Literature Review (GEMLR) conducts an annual search of peer-reviewed and gray literature relevant to global emergency medicine (EM) to identify, review, and disseminate the most important new research in this field to a global audience of academics and clinical practitioners.

METHODS

This year 13,890 articles written in four languages were identified by our search. These articles were distributed among 20 reviewers for initial screening based on their relevance to the field of global EM. An additional two reviewers searched the gray literature. All articles that were deemed appropriate by at least one reviewer and approved by their editor underwent formal scoring of overall quality and importance. Two independent reviewers scored all articles.

RESULTS

A total of 716 articles met our inclusion criteria and underwent full review. Fifty-nine percent were categorized as emergency care in resource-limited settings, 17% as EM development, and 24% as disaster and humanitarian response. Nineteen articles received scores of 18.5 or higher out of a maximum score of 20 and were selected for formal summary and critique. Inter-rater reliability testing between reviewers revealed Cohen's kappa of 0.441.

CONCLUSIONS

In 2016, the total number of articles identified by our search continued to increase. The proportion of articles in each of the three categories remained stable. Studies and reviews with a focus on infectious diseases, pediatrics, and the use of ultrasound in resource-limited settings represented the majority of articles selected for final review.

Impact of International Monetary Fund programs on child health

Parental education is located at the center of global efforts to improve child health. In a developing-country context, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) plays a crucial role in determining how governments allocate scarce resources to education and public health interventions. Under reforms mandated by IMF structural adjustment programs, it may become harder for parents to reap the benefits of their education due to wage contraction, welfare retrenchment, and generalized social insecurity. This study assesses how the protective effect of education changes under IMF programs, and thus how parents' ability to guard their children's health is affected by structural adjustment. We combine cross-sectional stratified data (countries, 67; children, 1,941,734) from the Demographic and Health Surveys and the Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys. The sample represents ∼2.8 billion (about 50%) of the world's population in year 2000. Based on multilevel models, our findings reveal that programs reduce the protective effect of parental education on child health, especially in rural areas. For instance, in the absence of IMF programs, living in an household with educated parents reduces the odds of child malnourishment by 38% [odds ratio (OR), 0.62; 95% CI, 0.66-0.58]; in the presence of programs, this drops to 21% (OR, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.86-0.74). In other words, the presence of IMF conditionality decreases the protective effect of parents' education on child malnourishment by no less than 17%. We observe similar adverse effects in sanitation, shelter, and health care access (including immunization), but a beneficial effect in countering water deprivation.