Urine Monocyte Chemoattractant Protein-1 Is an Independent Predictive Factor of Hospital Readmission and Survival in Cirrhosis

Risk factors for hospital readmission among patients with cirrhosis and ascites in China: a retrospective observational study

OBJECTIVE

In this investigation, we aimed to explore risk factors for 90-day hospital readmission among patients with cirrhosis and ascites in an Asian population.

METHODS

In this retrospective study, we included consecutive patients diagnosed with cirrhosis and ascites hospitalized in Renji Hospital between 2018 and 2022 to elucidate risk factors for 90-day readmission. We conducted multivariate logistic regression analysis to identify readmission risk factors.

RESULTS

We included 265 patients with cirrhosis and ascites. A 43% readmission rate was observed within 90 days. After adjustment for multiple covariates, we found that readmission within 90 days was independently linked to reduced levels of hemoglobin (odds ratio [OR] 0.96, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.94-0.97) and serum albumin (OR 0.88, 95% CI 0.83-0.93), and higher Model for End-Stage Liver Disease and sodium (MELD-Na) scores (OR 1.04, 95% CI 1.01-1.07) at discharge.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with cirrhosis who have ascites are frequently rehospitalized within 90 days after discharge. Lower hemoglobin or albumin and higher MELD-Na scores at discharge may be the main risk factors for hospital readmission.

Novel prognostic biomarkers in decompensated cirrhosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Patients with decompensated cirrhosis experience high mortality rates. Current prognostic scores, including the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), may underperform in settings other than in those they were initially developed. Novel biomarkers have been proposed to improve prognostication accuracy and even to predict development of complications.

METHODS

We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis on novel urine and blood biomarkers and their ability to predict 90-day mortality in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. Secondary outcomes included 28-day and 1-year mortality, and development of acute-on-chronic liver failure, acute kidney injury and other complications. To overcome differences in units, temporal changes in assays and reporting heterogeneity, we used the ratio of means (RoM) as measure of association for assessing strength in predicting outcomes. An RoM>1 implies that the mean biomarker level is higher in those that develop the outcome than in those that do not.

RESULTS

Of 6629 unique references, 103 were included, reporting on 29 different biomarkers, with a total of 31 362 biomarker patients. Most studies were prospective cohorts of hospitalised patients (median Child-Pugh-Turcotte score of 9 and MELD score of 18). The pooled 90-day mortality rate was 0.27 (95% CI 0.24 to 0.29). The RoM for predicting 90-day mortality was highest for interleukin 6 (IL-6) (2.56, 95% CI 2.39 to 2.74), followed by urinary neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (uNGAL) (2.42, 95% CI 2.20 to 2.66) and copeptin (2.33, 95% CI 2.17 to 2.50). These RoMs were all higher than for MELD (1.44, 95% CI 1.42 to 1.46).

CONCLUSION

Novel biomarkers, including IL-6, uNGAL and copeptin, can probably improve prognostication of patients with decompensated cirrhosis compared with MELD alone.

Non-resolution of acute kidney injury in the first week portends the development of chronic kidney disease in critically ill patients with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Renal tubular epithelial cells (RTECs) cause maladaptive repair and perpetuate renal fibrosis.

AIM

To evaluate urinary neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL) and RTEC as risk factors for non-resolution of acute kidney injury (AKI-NR) at day seven and chronic kidney disease (CKD) in critically ill patients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

We performed urinary NGAL and microscopy at enrolment and day 7 in all patients. We assessed 17 renal injury, endothelial injury and repair markers, genes for mitochondrial biogenesis by qRT-PCR in RTEC, and post-mortem renal biopsies for understanding mechanisms of AKI non-resolution (n = 30).

RESULTS

We enrolled 310 patients, aged 48.1 ± 11.6 years, 87% male, 90% alcoholic. Of these, 36% had RTEC at enrolment, and 53% had AKI-NR on day 7. On mean follow-up of 136 days (range 43-365), 150 (48.3%) developed CKD. The presence of RTEC or granular casts, NGAL and AKI-NR were independent predictors of CKD development on competing risk analysis. Higher MCP-1, renal endothelial injury, decrease in tubular repair markers and failure of mitochondrial biogenesis in RTEC were seen in patients with AKI-NR compared with AKI-R (p < 0.05). Renal biopsies showed infiltration with monocyte-macrophage, increased α-SMA, and tubulointerstitial fibrosis.

CONCLUSION

Almost two-thirds of critically ill patients with cirrhosis have AKI, which resolves in only one-half at day seven and predicts the development of CKD. Higher NGAL, RTEC, or granular casts were independent predictors of AKI-NR and CKD development. Enhanced tubular and endothelial injury, decreased repair, monocyte-macrophage infiltration and mitochondrial dysfunction in RTEC are associated with AKI non-resolution and risk of renal fibrosis.

Novel Biomarkers of AKI in Cirrhosis

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a frequent complication in patients with cirrhosis that is associated with poor outcomes and decreased survival. The definition of AKI in cirrhosis is currently based on changes of serum creatinine levels with respect to baseline values. Differential diagnosis of the causes of AKI is of major relevance, considering that some causes of AKI, such as hepatorenal syndrome, have specific treatment options and different prognosis. Prediction of kidney function recovery and patients' survival is also crucial in this patient population to guide clinical decisions. AKI biomarkers in cirrhosis have emerged as a promising tool for differential diagnosis and prognosis in this situation. There are consistent data showing that some urine biomarkers, particularly neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin, may be useful in daily clinical practice for the differential diagnosis of the cause of AKI in cirrhosis. AKI biomarkers may constitute a useful tool for use in differential diagnosis, prognosis of renal function, and survival in patients with cirrhosis. This review focuses on the current state of knowledge and future perspective of novel biomarkers of AKI in cirrhosis.

Ischemic Heart Disease and Liver Cirrhosis: Adding Insult to Injury

The link between heart and liver cirrhosis was recognized decades ago, although much data regarding atherosclerosis and ischemic heart disease are still missing. Ischemic heart disease or coronary artery disease (CAD) and liver cirrhosis could be associated with characteristic epidemiological and pathophysiological features. This connection determines increased rates of morbidity and all-cause mortality in patients with liver cirrhosis. In the era of a metabolic syndrome and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease pandemic, primary prevention and early diagnosis of coronary artery disease could improve the prognosis of liver cirrhosis patients. This review outlines a summary of the literature regarding prevalence, risk assessment and medical and interventional treatment options in this particular population. A collaborative heart–liver team-based approach is imperative for critical management decisions for patients with CAD and liver cirrhosis.

Pioglitazone Ameliorates Acute Endotoxemia-Induced Acute on Chronic Renal Dysfunction in Cirrhotic Ascitic Rats

Endotoxemia-activated tumor necrosis factor (TNFα)/nuclear factor kappa B (NFκB) signals result in acute on chronic inflammation-driven renal dysfunction in advanced cirrhosis. Systemic activation of peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor gamma (PPARγ) with pioglitazone can suppress inflammation-related splanchnic and pulmonary dysfunction in cirrhosis. This study explored the mechanism and effects of pioglitazone treatment on the abovementioned renal dysfunction in cirrhotic rats. Cirrhotic ascitic rats were induced with renal dysfunction by bile duct ligation (BDL). Then, 2 weeks of pioglitazone treatment (Pio, PPAR gamma agonist, 12 mg/kg/day, using the azert osmotic pump) was administered from the 6th week after BDL. Additionally, acute lipopolysaccharide (LPS, Escherichia coli 0111:B4; Sigma, 0.1 mg/kg b.w, i.p. dissolved in NaCl 0.9%) was used to induce acute renal dysfunction. Subsequently, various circulating, renal arterial and renal tissue pathogenic markers were measured. Cirrhotic BDL rats are characterized by decreased mean arterial pressure, increased cardiac output and portal venous pressure, reduced renal arterial blood flow (RABF), increased renal vascular resistance (RVR), increased relative renal weight/hydroxyproline, downregulated renal PPARγ expression, upregulated renal inflammatory markers (TNFα, NFκB, IL-6, MCP-1), increased adhesion molecules (VCAM-1 and ICAM-1), increased renal macrophages (M1, CD68), and progressive renal dysfunction (increasing serum and urinary levels of renal injury markers (lipocalin-2 and IL-18)). In particular, acute LPS administration induces acute on chronic renal dysfunction (increasing serum BUN/creatinine, increasing RVR and decreasing RABF) by increased TNFα-NFκB-mediated renal inflammatory markers as well as renal M1 macrophage infiltration. In comparison with the BDL+LPS group, chronic pioglitazone pre-treatment prevented LPS-induced renal pathogenic changes in the BDL-Pio+LPS group. Activation of systemic, renal vessel and renal tissue levels of PPARγ by chronic pioglitazone treatment has beneficial effects on the endotoxemia-related TNFα/NFκB-mediated acute and chronic renal inflammation in cirrhosis. This study revealed that normalization of renal and renal arterial levels of PPARγ effectively prevented LPS-induced acute and chronic renal dysfunction in cirrhotic ascitic rats.

Risk Stratification Score to Predict Readmission of Patients With Acute Decompensated Cirrhosis Within 90 Days

Background and Aims: Patients with acute decompensated (AD) cirrhosis are frequently readmitted to the hospital. An accurate predictive model for identifying high-risk patients may facilitate the development of effective interventions to reduce readmission rates.

Methods: This cohort study of patients with AD cirrhosis was conducted at six tertiary hospitals in China between September 2012 and December 2016 (with 705 patients in the derivation cohort) and between January 2017 and April 2020 (with 251 patients in the temporal validation cohort). Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator Cox regression was used to identify the prognostic factors and construct a nomogram. The discriminative ability, calibration, and clinical net benefit were evaluated based on the C-index, area under the curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis. Kaplan–Meier curves were constructed for stratified risk groups, and log-rank tests were used to determine significant differences between the curves.

Results: Among 956 patients, readmission rates were 24.58, 42.99, and 51.78%, at 30, 60, and 90 days, respectively. Bacterial infection was the main reason for index hospitalization and readmission. Independent factors in the nomogram included gastrointestinal bleeding [hazard rate (HR): 2.787; 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.221–3.499], serum sodium (HR: 0.955; 95% CI: 0.933–0.978), total bilirubin (HR: 1.004; 95% CI: 1.003–1.005), and international normalized ratio (HR: 1.398; 95% CI: 1.126–1.734). For the convenience of clinicians, we provided a web-based calculator tool (https://cqykdx1111.shinyapps.io/dynnomapp/). The nomogram exhibited good discrimination ability, both in the derivation and validation cohorts. The predicted and observed readmission probabilities were calibrated with reliable agreement. The nomogram demonstrated superior net benefits over other score models. The high-risk group (nomogram score >56.8) was significantly likely to have higher rates of readmission than the low-risk group (nomogram score ≤ 56.8; p < 0.0001).

Conclusions: The nomogram is useful for assessing the probability of short-term readmission in patients with AD cirrhosis and to guide clinicians to develop individualized treatments based on risk stratification.

Roles Played by Biomarkers of Kidney Injury in Patients with Upper Urinary Tract Obstruction

Partial or complete obstruction of the urinary tract is a common and challenging urological condition caused by a variety of conditions, including ureteral calculi, ureteral pelvic junction obstruction, ureteral stricture, and malignant ureteral obstruction. The condition, which may develop in patients of any age, induces tubular and interstitial injury followed by inflammatory cell infiltration and interstitial fibrosis, eventually impairing renal function. The serum creatinine level is commonly used to evaluate global renal function but is not sensitive to early changes in the glomerular filtration rate and unilateral renal damage. Biomarkers of acute kidney injury are useful for the early detection and monitoring of kidney injury induced by upper urinary tract obstruction. These markers include levels of neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL), monocyte chemotactic protein-1, kidney injury molecule 1, N-acetyl-b-D-glucosaminidase, and vanin-1 in the urine and serum NGAL and cystatin C concentrations. This review summarizes the pathophysiology of kidney injury caused by upper urinary tract obstruction, the roles played by emerging biomarkers of obstructive nephropathy, the mechanisms involved, and the clinical utility and limitations of the biomarkers.

Readmission Rates and Associated Outcomes for Alcoholic Hepatitis: A Nationwide Cohort Study

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Alcoholic hepatitis (AH) can lead to sudden and severe hepatic decompensation necessitating recurrent hospitalizations. We evaluated the trends, predictors, and healthcare cost burden of AH-related readmissions in the USA.

METHODS

Utilizing the National Readmissions Database 2010-2014, we performed a retrospective longitudinal analysis to identify the index readmission with AH for up to 90 days after discharge. Annual trends of 30- and 90-day AH-related readmissions were calculated. Predictors of 30- and 90-day readmission were determined by multivariate logistic regression. Annual healthcare cost burden associated with AH-linked readmissions was estimated.

RESULTS

Of the 21,572 (unweighted: 50,769) AH-related hospitalizations, 4917 (22.8%) and 7890 (36.6%) were readmitted in 30 and 90 day, respectively, with rates that were statistically unchanged from 2010 to 2014. Predictors of 30-day readmissions included female gender, hepatitis C virus infection, cirrhosis, ascites, acute kidney injury, urinary tract infection, history of bariatric surgery, chronic pancreatitis, and high medical comorbidity index. Acute pancreatitis and palliative care consultation were associated with a lower risk of 30-day readmission. Predictors of 90-day readmission were similar to risk factors for 30-day readmission. From 2010 to 2014, the annual cost (and total hospitalization days) burden increased in 2014 to $164 million (22,244 days) and $321 million (42,772 days) for 30- and 90-day AH-related readmissions, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Despite relatively stable trends in AH-related readmission, the total LOS and cost has been rising. A target-directed approach with a focus on high-risk subpopulations may help understand the unique challenges associated with the rising cost of AH-related readmissions.

Fluid Biomarkers for Predicting the Prognosis of Liver Cirrhosis

Liver cirrhosis is the terminal stage of most chronic liver conditions, with a high risk of mortality. Careful evaluation of the prognosis of cirrhotic patients and providing precise management are crucial to reduce the risk of mortality. Although the liver biopsy and hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) can efficiently evaluate the prognosis of cirrhotic patients, their application is limited due to the invasion procedures. Child-Pugh score and the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score had been widely used in the assessment of cirrhotic prognosis, but the defects of subjective variable application in Child-Pugh score and unsuitability to all phases of liver cirrhosis in MELD score limit their prognostic values. In recent years, continuous efforts have been made to investigate the prognostic value of body fluid biomarkers for cirrhotic patients, and promising results have been reported. Since the collection of fluid specimens is easy, noninvasive, and repeatable, fluid biomarkers can be ideal indicators to predict the prognosis of cirrhosis. Here, we reviewed noninvasive fluid biomarkers in different prognostic functions, including the prediction of survival and complication development.

Ability of the Short Physical Performance Battery Frailty Index to Predict Mortality and Hospital Readmission in Patients with Liver Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Unplanned hospitalisation is a marker of poor prognosis and a major financial burden in patients with cirrhosis. Frailty-screening tools could determine the risk for unplanned hospital admissions and death. The study aims to evaluate the bedside frailty-screening tool (Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB)) in prediction of mortality in patients with liver cirrhosis.

METHODS

One hundred forty-five patients with liver cirrhosis were recruited from Cairo University Hospital. Clinical assessment and routine laboratory tests were performed, and the SPPB frailty index, Child score, and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score were calculated on admission. These metrics were compared to assess mortality outcomes over the course of 90 days.

RESULTS

The mean age of the patients was 60 ± 7 years, and frailty index score (SD) was 6 ± 3. The overall 90-day readmission rate was 43.4%, while the overall 90-day mortality rate was 18.6%. SPPB scores differed significantly between survivors (4.1 ± 1.4) and nonsurvivors (6.47 ± 2.8) (P value ≤ 0.001) as well as between readmitted patients (7.5 ± 2.9) and patients who were not readmitted (4.5 ± 1.9) (P value ≤ 0.001), while the Child and MELD scores showed no associations with patient outcomes. SPPB performed better with a specificity of 72.3% and a sensitivity of 72.2% for predicting mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

SPPB could be a screening tool used to detect frailty and excelled over traditional scores as a predictor of death. A low SPPB frailty score among hospitalised patients with cirrhosis is associated with poor outcomes.

Perioperative management of the bleeding patient

Perioperative bleeding remains a major complication during and after surgery, resulting in increased morbidity and mortality. The principal causes of non-vascular sources of haemostatic perioperative bleeding are a preexisting undetected bleeding disorder, the nature of the operation itself, or acquired coagulation abnormalities secondary to haemorrhage, haemodilution, or haemostatic factor consumption. In the bleeding patient, standard therapeutic approaches include allogeneic blood product administration, concomitant pharmacologic agents, and increasing application of purified and recombinant haemostatic factors. Multiple haemostatic changes occur perioperatively after trauma and complex surgical procedures including cardiac surgery and liver transplantation. Novel strategies for both prophylaxis and therapy of perioperative bleeding include tranexamic acid, desmopressin, fibrinogen and prothrombin complex concentrates. Point-of-care patient testing using thromboelastography, rotational thromboelastometry, and platelet function assays has allowed for more detailed assessment of specific targeted therapy for haemostasis. Strategic multimodal management is needed to improve management, reduce allogeneic blood product administration, and minimize associated risks related to transfusion.

Hospital Readmissions in Patients with Cirrhosis: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

Hospital readmission is a significant problem for patients with complex chronic illnesses such as liver cirrhosis.

PURPOSE

We aimed to describe the range of readmission risk in patients with cirrhosis and the impact of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score.

DATA SOURCES

We conducted a systematic review of studies identified in Ovid MEDLINE, PubMed, EMBASE, CINAHL, the Cochrane Library, Scopus, Google Scholar, and ClinicalTrials.gov from 2000 to May 2017.

STUDY SELECTION

We examined studies that reported early readmissions (up to 90 days) in patients with cirrhosis. Studies were excluded if they did not examine the association between readmission and at least 1 variable or intervention.

DATA EXTRACTION

Two reviewers independently extracted data on study design, setting, population, interventions, comparisons, and detailed information on readmissions.

DATA SYNTHESIS

Of the 1363 records reviewed, 26 studies met the inclusion and exclusion criteria. Of these studies, 21 were retrospective, and there was significant variation in the inclusion and exclusion criteria. The pooled estimate of 30-day readmissions was 26%(95% confidence interval [CI], 22%-30%). Few studies examined readmission preventability or the relationship between readmissions and social determinants of health. Reasons for readmission were highly variable. An increased MELD score was associated with readmissions in most studies. Readmission was associated with increased mortality.

CONCLUSION

Hospital readmissions frequently occur in patients with cirrhosis and are associated with liver disease severity. The impact of functional and social factors on readmissions is unclear.

Role of monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 in liver fibrosis with transient myeloproliferative disorder in down syndrome

Liver fibrosis is a common complication associated with transient myeloproliferative disorder (TMD) in Down syndrome (DS). The exact molecular pathogenesis that regulates disease progression is largely unknown. We recently found serum and/or urinary monocyte chemoattractant protein‐1 (MCP‐1) as a novel biomarker of liver fibrosis. This study was an in vitro analysis to investigate the fibrogenic activity of MCP‐1 using the collagen‐producing LX‐2 human hepatic stellate cell line. We also examined the fibrogenic activity of serum from a male neonate with DS in whom late‐onset liver fibrosis developed even after the resolution of TMD. MCP‐1 stimulated both cell growth and collagen synthesis of LX‐2 in a dose‐dependent manner. Patient serum obtained during the active disease phase significantly up‐regulated fibrogenic activity, which was suppressed in the presence of MCP‐1‐blocking antibody. Transient transforming growth factor beta 1 stimulation primed LX‐2 to induce prolonged hypersecretion of MCP‐1 in the culture supernatant and in collagen synthesis, which was suppressed with MCP‐1 blocking antibody as well. Conclusion: MCP‐1 accounts for the prolonged activation of collagen‐producing hepatic stellate cells in both a paracrine and autocrine manner, thereby promoting liver fibrosis. Anti‐cytokine therapy targeting the fibrogenic cytokines of MCP‐1, for example, herbal medicine, could provide a new therapeutic intervention for liver fibrosis associated with TMD in DS. (Hepatology Communications 2018;2:230‐236)

Serum osteopontin is a predictor of prognosis for HBV-associated acute-on-chronic liver failure

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a syndrome with a high rate of short-term mortality, and clinically it is important to identify patients at high risk of mortality. The present study evaluated the value of osteopontin (OPN) in the prediction of 90-day mortality in patients with ACLF. A total of 54 patients with HBV-associated ACLF were enrolled, and serum OPN levels were determined in a prospective, observational study design. Survival analysis was performed using Kaplan-Meier curves, and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression was used to analyze independent risk factors of mortality. Serum OPN was significantly higher in HBV-ACLF patients compared with patients with chronic hepatitis B and healthy controls (both P<0.01), and furthermore, was higher in those patients who succumbed to HBV-ACLF compared with surviving patients (P<0.05). OPN level positively correlated with total bilirubin (r=0.554, P<0.001), Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score (r=0.234, P=0.038), MELD-Na score (r=0.379, P=0.005) and monocyte count (r=0.282, P=0.039), and OPN was an independent risk factor for 90-day mortality in ACLF (P=0.021, odds ratio=1.104, 95% confidence interval: 1.003-1.116). Furthermore, ACLF patients were stratified into three groups according to serum OPN levels (low mortality risk: <6,135 ng/ml; intermediate risk: 6,135-9,043 ng/ml; and high risk: >9,043 ng/ml), for which the 90-day mortality rates were 27.78 (5/18), 52.94 (9/17) and 73.68% (14/19), respectively, and those in the high risk had a poorer prognosis compared with the low risk group (P=0.009). In conclusion, serum OPN may be an independent risk factor associated with HBV-ACLF prognosis.

Predictors of Early Readmission in Patients With Cirrhosis After the Resolution of Bacterial Infections

OBJECTIVES

In patients with cirrhosis, infections represent a frequent trigger for complications, increasing frequency of hospitalizations and mortality rate. This study aimed to identify predictors of early readmission (30 days) and of mid-term mortality (6 months) in patients with liver cirrhosis discharged after a hospitalization for bacterial and/or fungal infection.

METHODS

A total of 199 patients with cirrhosis discharged after an admission for a bacterial and/or fungal infection were included in the study and followed up for a least 6 months.

RESULTS

During follow-up, 69 patients (35%) were readmitted within 30 days from discharge. C-reactive protein (CRP) value at discharge (odds ratio (OR)=1.91; P=0.022), diagnosis of acute-on-chronic liver failure during the hospital stay (OR=2.48; P=0.008), and the hospitalization in the last 30 days previous to the admission/inclusion in the study (OR=1.50; P=0.042) were found to be independent predictors of readmission. During the 6-month follow-up, 47 patients (23%) died. Age (hazard ratio (HR)=1.05; P=0.001), model of end-stage liver disease (MELD) score (HR=1.13; P<0.001), CRP (HR=1.85; P=0.001), refractory ascites (HR=2.22; P=0.007), and diabetes (HR=2.41; P=0.010) were found to be independent predictors of 6-month mortality. Patients with a CRP >10 mg/l at discharge had a significantly higher probability of being readmitted within 30 days (44% vs. 24%; P=0.007) and a significantly lower probability of 6-month survival (62% vs. 88%; P<0.001) than those with a CRP ≤10 mg/l.

CONCLUSIONS

CRP showed to be a strong predictor of early hospital readmission and 6-month mortality in patients with cirrhosis after hospitalization for bacterial and/or fungal infection. CRP values could be used both in the stewardship of antibiotic treatment and to identify fragile patients who deserve a strict surveillance program.