An artificial intelligence-generated model predicts 90-day survival in alcohol-associated hepatitis: A global cohort study

BACKGROUND AIMS

Alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) poses significant short-term mortality. Existing prognostic models lack precision for 90-day mortality. Utilizing artificial intelligence (AI) in a global cohort, we sought to derive and validate an enhanced prognostic model.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

The Global AlcHep initiative, a retrospective study across 23 centers in 12 countries, enrolled AH patients per NIAAA criteria. Centers were partitioned into derivation (11 centers, 860 patients) and validation cohorts (12 centers, 859 patients). Focusing on 30 and 90-day post-admission mortality, three AI algorithms (Random Forest, Gradient Boosting Machines, and eXtreme Gradient Boosting) informed an ensemble model, subsequently refined via Bayesian updating, integrating the derivation cohort's average 90-day mortality with each center's approximate mortality rate to produce post-test probabilities. The ALCoholic Hepatitis Artificial INtelligence (ALCHAIN) Ensemble score integrated age, gender, cirrhosis, and 9 laboratory values, with center-specific mortality rates. Mortality was 18.7% (30-day) and 27.9% (90-day) in the derivation cohort, versus 21.7% and 32.5% in the validation cohort. Validation cohort 30 and 90-day AUCs were 0.811 (0.779 - 0.844) and 0.799 (0.769 - 0.830), significantly surpassing legacy models like Maddrey's Discriminant Function, MELD variations, ABIC, Glasgow, and modified Glasgow Scores (p<0.001). ALCHAIN Ensemble score also showcased superior calibration against MELD and its variants. Steroid use improved 30-day survival for those with an ALCHAIN Ensemble score>0.20 in both derivation and validation cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

Harnessing AI within a global consortium, we pioneered a scoring system excelling over traditional models for 30 and 90-day AH mortality predictions. Beneficial for clinical trials, steroid therapy, and transplant indications, it's accessible at: https://aihepatology.shinyapps.io/ALCHAIN/.

The Impact of Colonization by Multi Drug Resistant Bacteria on Graft Survival, Risk of Infection, and Mortality in Recipients of Solid Organ Transplant: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The Global increase in colonization by multidrug-resistant (MDR) bacteria poses a significant concern. The precise impact of MDR colonization in solid organ transplant recipients (SOTR) remains not well established.

OBJECTIVES

Assess the impact of MDR colonization on SOTR's mortality, infection, or graft-loss.

METHODS

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DATA SOURCE

Data from PROSPERO, OVID Medline, Ovid EMBASE, Wiley Cochrane Library, ProQuest Dissertations, Theses Global, and SCOPUS, were systematically reviewed spanning from inception until March 20, 2023. The study protocol was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42022290011) and followed the PRISMA guidelines. STUDY ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA, PARTICIPANTS, INTERVENTIONS, AND ASSESSMENT OF RISK OF BIAS: Cohorts and case-control studies that reported on adult SOTR colonized by Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus-aureus (MRSA), Vancomycin-resistant Enterococci (VRE), Extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL) or carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE), or MDR-Pseudomonas, and compared to non-colonized, were included. Two reviewers assessed eligibility, conducted risk of bias evaluation using the Newcastle-Ottawa scale, and rated certainty of evidence using the GRADE approach.

METHODS OF DATA SYNTHESIS

We employed RevMan for a meta-analysis using random-effects models to compute pooled odds-ratios (OR) and 95% confidence-intervals (CI). Statistical heterogeneity was determined using the I2 statistic.

RESULTS

15,202 SOTR (33 cohort, 6 case-control studies) were included, where Liver transplant and VRE colonization (25 and 14 studies) were predominant. MDR colonization significantly increased post-transplant one-year mortality (OR= 2.35, 95%CI 1.63-3.38) and mixed-infections (OR=10.74, 95%CI 7.56-12.26) across transplant types (p<0.001 and I2= 58%), but no detected impact on graft-loss (p=0.41, I2= 0%). Subgroup analysis indicated a higher association between CRE or ESBL colonization with outcomes (CRE: death OR=3.94, mixed-infections OR=24.8; ESBL: mixed-infections OR=10.3, no mortality data) compared to MRSA (Death: OR=2.25; Mixed-infection: OR=7.75) or VRE colonization (Death: p=0.20, Mixed-infections: OR=5.71).

CONCLUSIONS

MDR colonization in SOTR, particularly CRE, is associated with increased mortality. Despite the low certainty of evidence, actions for preventing MDR colonization in transplant candidates are warranted.

Editorial: Shorter course of intravenous terlipressin in acute variceal bleeding - the promise, controversies and future directions

This article is linked to Vaishnav et al papers. To view these articles, visit https://doi.org/10.1111/apt.17868 and https://doi.org/10.1111/apt.17893

Enhancing ACLF prediction by integrating sarcopenia assessment and frailty in liver transplant candidates on the waiting list

Background & Aims

Malnutrition, sarcopenia, and frailty are prevalent in cirrhosis. We aimed to assess the correlation between assessment tools for malnutrition, sarcopenia, and frailty in patients on the liver transplant (LT) waiting list (WL), and to identify a predictive model for acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) development.

Methods

This prospective single-center study enrolled consecutive patients with cirrhosis on the WL for LT (May 2019-November 2021). Assessments included subjective global assessment, CT body composition, skeletal muscle index (SMI), ultrasound thigh muscle thickness, sarcopenia HIBA score, liver frailty index (LFI), hand grip strength, and 6-minute walk test at enrollment. Correlations were analyzed using Pearson's correlation. Competing risk regression analysis was used to assess the predictive ability of the liver- and functional physiological reserve-related variables for ACLF.

Results

A total of 132 patients, predominantly with decompensated cirrhosis (87%), were included. Our study revealed a high prevalence of malnutrition (61%), sarcopenia (61%), visceral obesity (20%), sarcopenic visceral obesity (17%), and frailty (10%) among participants. Correlations between the assessment tools for sarcopenia and frailty were poor. Sarcopenia by SMI remained prevalent when frailty assessments were not usable. After a median follow-up of 10 months, 39% of the patients developed ACLF on WL, while 28% experienced dropouts without ACLF. Multivariate analysis identified MELD-Na, SMI, and LFI as independent predictors of ACLF on the WL. The predictive model MELD-Na-sarcopenia-LFI had a C-statistic of 0.85.

Conclusions

The poor correlation between sarcopenia assessment tools and frailty underscores the importance of a comprehensive evaluation. The SMI, LFI, and MELD-Na independently predicted ACLF development in WL. These findings enhance our understanding of the relationship between sarcopenia, frailty, and ACLF in patients awaiting LT, emphasizing the need for early detection and intervention to improve WL outcomes.

Impact and implications

The relationship between sarcopenia and frailty assessment tools, as well as their ability to predict acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) in patients on the liver transplant (LT) waiting list (WL), remains poorly understood. Existing objective frailty screening tests have limitations when applied to critically ill patients. The correlation between sarcopenia and frailty assessment tools was weak, suggesting that they may capture different phenotypes. Sarcopenia assessed by skeletal muscle index, frailty evaluated using the liver frailty index, and the model for end-stage liver disease-Na score independently predicted the development of ACLF in patients on the WL. Our findings support the integration of liver frailty index and skeletal muscle index assessments at the time of inclusion on the WL for LT. This combined approach allows for the identification of a specific patient subgroup with an increased susceptibility to ACLF, underscoring the importance of early implementation of targeted treatment strategies to improve outcomes for patients awaiting LT.

A model including standardized weight improved predicting waiting list mortality in adolescent liver transplant candidates: A US national study

The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score has been employed to identify adolescents eligible for liver transplantation since 2004. However, the optimal model for prioritizing adolescent candidates is uncertain. In our study, we aimed at evaluating the value of adding anthropometric variables to liver transplantation allocation models among adolescents. We conducted a retrospective cohort study using the data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network Standard Transplant Analysis and Research to identify adolescent patients registered on the liver transplant waiting list in the United States between January 1, 2003, and December 31, 2022. Adolescents (12-17 y) who were listed for their first liver transplantation were included. We evaluated the performance of different models including pediatric end-stage liver disease with Na and creatinine, MELD, and MELD 3.0. Furthermore, we evaluated whether adding anthropometric variables ( z -score for weight and height) would improve the models' performance for our primary outcome (mortality at 90 days after listing). We identified 1421 eligible adolescent patients. Adding a z -score of weight (MELD-TEEN) improved the performance and discrimination of the MELD score. The final model including weight z -score (MELD-TEEN) had better discriminative power compared to MELD 3.0 and pediatric end-stage liver disease with Na and creatinine in the overall cohort and in different age groups (ages 12-14 and 15-17). MELD-TEEN could improve the accuracy of allocation of liver transplants among adolescents by incorporating the weight z -score compared to MELD 3.0 and pediatric end-stage liver disease with Na and creatinine.

Full adherence to cirrhosis quality indicators is associated with lower mortality in acute variceal bleeding: Nationwide audit

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Acute variceal bleeding (AVB) is a major complication in patients with cirrhosis. Using a nationwide AVB audit, we performed a nested cohort study to determine whether full adherence to the AVB quality indicator (QI) improves clinical outcomes in patients with cirrhosis and AVB.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

We assessed real-world adherence to AVB QI among patients with cirrhosis admitted for AVB in all public hospitals in Singapore between January 2015 and December 2020. Full adherence was considered when all 5 QIs were fulfilled: prophylactic antibiotics, vasoactive agents, timely endoscopy, endoscopic hemostasis during index endoscopy, and nonselective beta-blockers after AVB. We compare 6-week mortality between the full adherence and suboptimal adherence groups using a propensity-matched cohort.A total of 989 patients with AVB were included. Full adherence to all AVB QI was suboptimal (56.5%). Analysis of the propensity-matched cohort with comparable baseline characteristics showed that full adherence was associated with a lower risk of early infection (20.0% vs. 26.9%), early rebleeding (5.2% vs. 10.2%), and mortality at 6 weeks (8.2% vs. 19.7%) and 1 year (21.3% vs. 35.4%) ( p <0.05 for all). While full adherence was associated with a lower 6-week mortality regardless of the MELD score, nonadherence was associated with a higher 6-week mortality despite a lower predicted risk of 6-week mortality. Despite high adherence to the recommended process measures, patients with CTP-C remain at a higher risk of rebleeding, 6-week and 1-year mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Full adherence to the AVB QI should be the target for quality improvement in patients with cirrhosis.

Serum aryl hydrocarbon receptor activity is associated with survival in patients with alcohol-associated hepatitis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Patients with alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) have an altered fecal metabolome, including reduced microbiota-derived tryptophan metabolites, which function as ligands for aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AhR). The aim of this study was to assess serum AhR ligand activity in patients with AH.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

The study included 74 controls without AUD, 97 patients with AUD, and 330 patients with AH from 2 different multicenter cohorts (InTeam: 134, AlcHepNet: 196). Serum AhR activity was evaluated using an AhR reporter assay with HepG2-Lucia cells incubated with serum for 24 hours. Serum AhR activity was significantly higher in patients with AH compared with both controls (1.59 vs. 0.96-fold change, p < 0.001) and patients with AUD (1.59 vs. 0.93, p < 0.001). In both AH cohorts, patients with AhR activity ≥ 2.09 had significantly lower cumulative survival rates at 30, 60, 90, and 180 days compared to those with AhR activity < 2.09. When serum AhR activity was used to further stratify patients with severe AH, the cumulative 30, 60, 90, and 180-day survival rates for patients with severe AH and the AhR activity ≥ 2.09 group were all significantly lower than those with an AhR activity < 2.09 group.

CONCLUSIONS

Serum AhR activity was significantly higher in patients with AH compared with controls and individuals with AUD, and this increased activity was associated with higher mortality. Consequently, serum AhR activity holds potential as a prognostic marker.

Heterogeneity of treatment response to beta-blockers in the treatment of portal hypertension: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

It has been suggested that a relevant proportion of patients do not respond to nonselective beta-blockers (NSBB)s, which raises questions regarding the need for individualized therapy. The existence of potential heterogeneity in the treatment response can be assessed using the variability ratio (VR) of the outcome measurement (in this case, HVPG) between the treated and placebo groups. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials to assess the potential heterogeneity in the portal pressure response to NSBBs.

METHODS

After a systematic search, we quantified the heterogeneity of treatment response with the VR between the treatment and control groups, with VR > 1 indicating potential heterogeneity. We used a similar approach to compare carvedilol with propranolol and statins with placebo.

RESULTS

We identified 18 studies that included 965 patients. A comparison between beta-blockers and placebo showed a pooled VR of 0.99 (95% CI:0.87-1.14), which suggests a homogeneous HVPG response to NSBB at the individual patient level (ie, no evidence to support that some patients responded to beta-blockers and others did not). For the comparison between carvedilol and propranolol, pooled VR was 0.97 (95% CI 0.82-1.14), suggesting that carvedilol achieves a greater average response (rather than an increase in the proportion of responders). There was no evidence of a heterogeneous response to statins.

CONCLUSION

Our analysis did not support the existence of a heterogeneous patient-by-patient response to NSBBs in cirrhosis. These findings challenge the concept of personalized therapy based on portal pressure response and indicate that routine portal pressure measurement may not be necessary to guide NSBB therapy.

Evolution of spontaneous portosystemic shunts over time and following aetiological intervention in patients with cirrhosis

Background & Aims

Spontaneous portosystemic shunts (SPSS) develop frequently in cirrhosis. Changes over time and the effect of aetiological interventions on SPSS are unknown, so we aimed to explore the effect of these variables on SPSS evolution.

Methods

Patients with cirrhosis from the Baveno VI-SPSS cohort were selected provided a follow-up abdominal CT or MRI scan was available. Clinical and laboratory data were collected at baseline and follow-up. Imaging tests were reviewed to evaluate changes in the presence and size of SPSS (large (L)-SPSS was ≥8 mm) over time. Regarding alcohol- or HCV-related cirrhosis, two populations were defined: cured patients (abstinent from alcohol or successful HCV therapy), and non-cured patients.

Results

A total of 617 patients were included. At baseline SPSS distribution was 22% L-SPSS, 30% small (S)-SPSS, and 48% without (W)-SPSS. During follow-up (median follow-up of 63 months), SPSS distribution worsened: L-SPSS 26%, S-SPSS 32%, and W-SPSS 42% (p <0.001). Patients with worse liver function during follow-up showed a simultaneous aggravation in SPSS distribution. Non-cured patients (n = 191) experienced a significant worsening in liver function, more episodes of liver decompensation and lower transplant-free survival compared to cured patients (n = 191). However, no differences were observed regarding SPSS distribution at inclusion and at follow-up, with both groups showing a trend to worsening. Total shunt diameter increased more in non-cured (52%) than in cured patients (28%). However, total shunt area (TSA) significantly increased only in non-cured patients (74 to 122 mm2, p <0.001).

Conclusions

The presence of SPSS in cirrhosis increases over time and parallels liver function deterioration. Aetiological intervention in these patients reduces liver-related complications, but SPSS persist although progression is decreased.

Impact and implications

There is no information regarding the evolution of spontaneous portosystemic shunts (SPSS) during the course of cirrhosis, and especially after disease regression with aetiological interventions, such as HCV treatment with direct-acting antivirals or alcohol abstinence. These results are relevant for clinicians dealing with patients with cirrhosis and portal hypertension because they have important implications for the management of cirrhosis with SPSS after disease regression. From a practical point of view, physicians should be aware that in advanced cirrhosis with portal hypertension, after aetiological intervention, SPSS mostly persist despite liver function improvement, and complications related to SPSS may still develop.

AGA Clinical Practice Update on the Use of Vasoactive Drugs and Intravenous Albumin in Cirrhosis: Expert Review

DESCRIPTION

Cirrhosis is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in the United States and worldwide. It consists of compensated, decompensated, and further decompensated stages; median survival is more than 15 years, 2 years, and 9 months for each stage, respectively. With each stage, there is progressive worsening of portal hypertension and the vasodilatory-hyperdynamic circulatory state, resulting in a progressive decrease in effective arterial blood volume and renal perfusion. Vasoconstrictors reduce portal pressure via splanchnic vasoconstriction and are used in the management of variceal hemorrhage. Intravenous (IV) albumin increases effective arterial blood volume and is used in the prevention of acute kidney injury (AKI) and death after large-volume paracentesis and in patients with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP). The combination of vasoconstrictors and albumin is used in the reversal of hepatorenal syndrome (HRS-AKI), the most lethal complication of cirrhosis. Because a potent vasoconstrictor, terlipressin, was recently approved by the US Food and Drug Administration, and because recent trials have explored use of IV albumin in other settings, it was considered that a best practice update would be relevant regarding the use of vasoactive drugs and IV albumin in the following 3 specific scenarios: variceal hemorrhage, ascites and SBP, and HRS.

METHODS

This expert review was commissioned and approved by the American Gastroenterological Association (AGA) Institute Clinical Practice Updates Committee and the AGA Governing Board to provide timely guidance on a topic of high clinical importance to the AGA membership. It underwent internal peer review through standard procedures of Gastroenterology. These Best Practice Advice statements were drawn from a review of the published literature and from expert opinion. Some of the statements are unchanged from published guidelines because of lack of new evidence in the literature. Because systematic reviews were not performed, these Best Practice Advice statements do not carry formal ratings regarding the quality and evidence or strength of the presented considerations. Best Practice Advice Statements BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 1: Vasoactive drugs should be initiated as soon as the diagnosis of variceal hemorrhage is suspected or confirmed, preferably before diagnostic and/or therapeutic endoscopy. BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 2: After initial endoscopic hemostasis, vasoactive drugs should be continued for 2-5 days to prevent early rebleeding. BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 3: Octreotide is the vasoactive drug of choice in the management of variceal hemorrhage based on its safety profile. BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 4: IV albumin should be administered at the time of large-volume (>5 L) paracentesis. BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 5: IV albumin may be considered in patients with SBP. BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 6: Albumin should not be used in patients (hospitalized or not) with cirrhosis and uncomplicated ascites. BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 7: Vasoconstrictors should not be used in the management of uncomplicated ascites, after large-volume paracentesis or in patients with SBP. BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 8: IV albumin is the volume expander of choice in hospitalized patients with cirrhosis and ascites presenting with AKI. BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 9: Vasoactive drugs (eg, terlipressin, norepinephrine, and combination of octreotide and midodrine) should be used in the treatment of HRS-AKI, but not in other forms of AKI in cirrhosis. BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 10: Terlipressin is the vasoactive drug of choice in the treatment of HRS-AKI and use of concurrent albumin can be considered when accounting for patient's volume status. BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 11: Terlipressin treatment does not require intensive care unit monitoring and can be administered intravenously through a peripheral line. BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 12: Terlipressin use is contraindicated in patients with hypoxemia and in patients with ongoing coronary, peripheral, or mesenteric ischemia, and should be used with caution in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure grade 3. The benefits may not outweigh the risks in patients with serum creatinine >5 mg/dL and in patients listed for transplantation with a Model for End-stage Liver Disease ≥35.

Novel prognostic biomarkers in decompensated cirrhosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Patients with decompensated cirrhosis experience high mortality rates. Current prognostic scores, including the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), may underperform in settings other than in those they were initially developed. Novel biomarkers have been proposed to improve prognostication accuracy and even to predict development of complications.

METHODS

We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis on novel urine and blood biomarkers and their ability to predict 90-day mortality in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. Secondary outcomes included 28-day and 1-year mortality, and development of acute-on-chronic liver failure, acute kidney injury and other complications. To overcome differences in units, temporal changes in assays and reporting heterogeneity, we used the ratio of means (RoM) as measure of association for assessing strength in predicting outcomes. An RoM>1 implies that the mean biomarker level is higher in those that develop the outcome than in those that do not.

RESULTS

Of 6629 unique references, 103 were included, reporting on 29 different biomarkers, with a total of 31 362 biomarker patients. Most studies were prospective cohorts of hospitalised patients (median Child-Pugh-Turcotte score of 9 and MELD score of 18). The pooled 90-day mortality rate was 0.27 (95% CI 0.24 to 0.29). The RoM for predicting 90-day mortality was highest for interleukin 6 (IL-6) (2.56, 95% CI 2.39 to 2.74), followed by urinary neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (uNGAL) (2.42, 95% CI 2.20 to 2.66) and copeptin (2.33, 95% CI 2.17 to 2.50). These RoMs were all higher than for MELD (1.44, 95% CI 1.42 to 1.46).

CONCLUSION

Novel biomarkers, including IL-6, uNGAL and copeptin, can probably improve prognostication of patients with decompensated cirrhosis compared with MELD alone.

Letter: Exploring the clinical utility of ammonia in critically ill patients with cirrhosis: More to do? Authors' reply

This article is linked to Cardoso et al papers. To view these articles, visit https://doi.org/10.1111/apt.17650 and https://doi.org/10.1111/apt.17698

Non-invasive assessment of hepatic decompensation

Non-invasive tests (NITs) are used in all aspects of liver disease management. Their most prominent break-through since the millennium has been in advancing early detection of liver fibrosis, but their use is not limited to this. In contrast to symptom-driven assessment of decompensation in cirrhosis patients, NITs not only provide opportunities for earlier diagnoses but also accurate prognostication, targeted treatment decisions, and a means of monitoring disease. NITs can inform disease management and decision making based on validated cut-offs and standardized interpretations, as a valuable supplement to clinical acumen. The Baveno VI and VII consensus meetings resulted in tangible improvements to pathways of care for patients with compensated and decompensated advanced chronic liver disease, including the combination of platelet count and transient elastography to diagnose clinically significant portal hypertension. Furthermore, circulating NITs will play increasingly important roles in assessing the response to interventions against ascites, variceal bleeding, hepatic encephalopathy, acute kidney injury, and infections. However, due to NITs' wide availability, there is a risk of inaccurate use, leading to waste of resources and flawed decisions. In this review, we describe the uses and pitfalls of NITs for hepatic decompensation from risk stratification in primary care to treatment decisions in outpatient clinics, as well as for the in-hospital management of patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure. We summarize which NITs to use when, for what indications, and how to maximize the potential of NITs for improved patient management.

Early serum ammonia variation in critically ill patients with cirrhosis: A multicentre cohort study

BACKGROUND

Serum ammonia variation in critically ill patients with cirrhosis has been poorly studied.

AIM

To describe and assess the impact of serum ammonia variation in these patients' outcomes.

METHODS

We studied patients ≥18 years old admitted to the intensive care units (ICUs) at University of Alberta Hospital (Edmonton, Canada) and Curry Cabral Hospital (Lisbon, Portugal; derivation cohort, n = 492) and Northwestern University Hospital (Chicago, USA; validation cohort, n = 600) between January 2010 and December 2021. Primary exposure was ICU days 1-3 serum ammonia. Primary endpoint was all-cause hospital mortality.

RESULTS

In the derivation cohort, 330 (67.1%) patients were male and median (IQR) age was 57 (50-63) years. On ICU day 1, median ammonia was higher in patients with grade 3/4 hepatic encephalopathy (HE) than those with grade 2 HE or grade 0/1 HE (112 vs. 88 vs. 77 μmoL/L, respectively; p < 0.001). Furthermore, medium ammonia was higher in hospital non-survivors than survivors (99 vs. 86 μmol/L; p < 0.030). Following adjustment for significant confounders (age, HE, vasopressor use and renal replacement therapy delivery), higher ICU day 2 ammonia was independently associated with higher hospital mortality (adjusted OR per each 10 μmoL/L increment [95% CI] = 1.11 [1.01-1.21]; p = 0.024). In the validation cohort, this model with serial ammonia (ICU days 1 and 3) predicted hospital mortality with reasonably good discrimination (c-statistic = 0.73) and calibration (R2  = 0.19 and Brier score = 0.17).

CONCLUSIONS

Among patients with cirrhosis in the ICU, early serum ammonia variation was independently associated with hospital mortality. In this context, serial serum ammonia may have prognostic value.

A chair-stand time of greater than 15 seconds is associated with an increased risk of death and hospitalization in cirrhosis

Background

Frailty is a clinical state of increased vulnerability and is common in patients with cirrhosis. The liver frailty index (LFI) is a validated tool to evaluate frailty in cirrhosis, comprising of grip strength, chair stands, and balance tests. The chair-stand test is an easy to conduct frailty subcomponent that does not require specialized equipment and may be valuable to predict adverse clinical outcomes in cirrhosis. The objective of this study was to determine if the chair-stand test is an independent predictor of mortality and hospitalization in cirrhosis.

Methods

A retrospective review of 787 patients with cirrhosis was conducted. Chair-stand times were collected at baseline in person and divided into three groups: <10 seconds (n = 276), 10-15 seconds (n = 290), and >15 seconds (n = 221). Fine-Gray proportional hazards regression models were used to evaluate the association between chair-stand times and the outcomes of mortality and non-elective hospitalization.

Results

The hazard of mortality (HR 3.21, 95% CI 2.16%-4.78%, p <0.001) and non-elective hospitalization (HR 2.24, 95% CI 1.73%-2.91%, p <0.001) was increased in group 3 in comparison to group 1. A chair-stand test time >15 seconds had increased all-cause mortality (HR 2.78, 95% CI 2.01%-3.83%, p <0.001) and non-elective hospitalizations (HR 1.84, 95% CI 1.48%-2.29%, p <0.001) compared to <15 seconds.

Conclusions

A chair-stand test time of >15 seconds is independently associated with mortality and non-elective hospitalizations. This test holds promise as a rapid prognostication tool in cirrhosis. Future work will include external validation and virtual assessment in this population.

Handgrip strength and risk of malnutrition are associated with an increased risk of hospitalizations in inflammatory bowel disease patients

Background

In patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), frailty is independently associated with mortality and morbidity.

Objectives

This study aimed to extend this work to determine the association between the clinical frailty scale (CFS), handgrip strength (HGS), and malnutrition with IBD-related hospitalizations and surgeries.

Design

IBD patients ⩾18 years of age were prospectively enrolled from two ambulatory care clinics in Alberta, Canada.

Methods

Frailty was defined as a CFS score ⩾4, dynapenia as HGS < 16 kg for females and <27 kg for males, malnutrition using the subjective global assessment (SGA), and the risk of malnutrition using either the abridged patient-generated SGA (abPG-SGA), or the Saskatchewan Inflammatory Bowel Disease Nutrition Risk Tool (SaskIBD-NRT). Logarithm relative hazard graphs and multivariable logistic regression models adjusting for relevant confounders were constructed.

Results

One hundred sixty-one patients (35% ulcerative colitis, 65% Crohn's disease) with a mean age of 42.2 (±15.9) years were followed over a mean period of 43.9 (±10.1) months. Twenty-seven patients were hospitalized, and 13 patients underwent IBD-related surgeries following baseline. While the CFS (aHR 1.34; p = 0.61) and SGA (aHR 0.81; p = 0.69) did not independently predict IBD-related hospitalizations, decreased HGS (aHR 3.96; p = 0.03), increased abPG-SGA score (aHR 1.07; p = 0.03) and a SaskIBD-NRT ⩾ 5 (aHR 4.49; p = 0.02) did. No variable was independently associated with IBD-related surgeries.

Conclusion

HGS, the abPG-SGA, and the SaskIBD-NRT were independently associated with an increased risk of IBD-related hospitalizations. Future studies should aim to validate other frailty assessments in the IBD population in order to better tailor care for all IBD patients.

Point-of-Care Noninvasive Prediction of Liver-Related Events in Patients With Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Individual risk prediction of liver-related events (LRE) is needed for clinical assessment of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD)/nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) patients. We aimed to provide point-of-care validated liver stiffness measurement (LSM)-based risk prediction models for the development of LRE in patients with NAFLD, focusing on selecting patients for clinical trials at risk of clinical events.

METHODS

Two large multicenter cohorts were evaluated, 2638 NAFLD patients covering all LSM values as the derivation cohort and 679 more advanced patients as the validation cohort. We used Cox regression to develop and validate risk prediction models based on LSM alone, and the ANTICIPATE and ANTICIPATE-NASH models for clinically significant portal hypertension. The main outcome of the study was the rate of LRE in the first 3 years after initial assessment.

RESULTS

The 3 predictive models had similar performance in the derivation cohort with a very high discriminative value (c-statistic, 0.87-0.91). In the validation cohort, the LSM-LRE alone model had a significant inferior discrimination (c-statistic, 0.75) compared with the other 2 models, whereas the ANTICIPATE-NASH-LRE model (0.81) was significantly better than the ANTICIPATE-LRE model (0.79). In addition, the ANTICIPATE-NASH-LRE model presented very good calibration in the validation cohort (integrated calibration index, 0.016), and was better than the ANTICIPATE-LRE model.

CONCLUSIONS

The ANTICIPATE-LRE models, and especially the ANTICIPATE-NASH-LRE model, could be valuable validated clinical tools to individually assess the risk of LRE at 3 years in patients with NAFLD/NASH.

MELD 3.0 adequately predicts mortality and renal replacement therapy requirements in patients with alcohol-associated hepatitis

Background & Aims

Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score better predicts mortality in alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) but could underestimate severity in women and malnourished patients. Using a global cohort, we assessed the ability of the MELD 3.0 score to predict short-term mortality in AH.

Methods

This was a retrospective cohort study of patients admitted to hospital with AH from 2009 to 2019. The main outcome was all-cause 30-day mortality. We compared the AUC using DeLong's method and also performed a time-dependent AUC with competing risks analysis.

Results

A total of 2,124 patients were included from 28 centres from 10 countries on three continents (median age 47.2 ± 11.2 years, 29.9% women, 71.3% with underlying cirrhosis). The median MELD 3.0 score at admission was 25 (20-33), with an estimated survival of 73.7% at 30 days. The MELD 3.0 score had a better performance in predicting 30-day mortality (AUC:0.761, 95%CI:0.732-0.791) compared with MELD sodium (MELD-Na; AUC: 0.744, 95% CI: 0.713-0.775; p = 0.042) and Maddrey's discriminant function (mDF) (AUC: 0.724, 95% CI: 0.691-0.757; p = 0.013). However, MELD 3.0 did not perform better than traditional MELD (AUC: 0.753, 95% CI: 0.723-0.783; p = 0.300) and Age-Bilirubin-International Normalised Ratio-Creatinine (ABIC) (AUC:0.757, 95% CI: 0.727-0.788; p = 0.765). These results were consistent in competing-risk analysis, where MELD 3.0 (AUC: 0.757, 95% CI: 0.724-0.790) predicted better 30-day mortality compared with MELD-Na (AUC: 0.739, 95% CI: 0.708-0.770; p = 0.028) and mDF (AUC:0.717, 95% CI: 0.687-0.748; p = 0.042). The MELD 3.0 score was significantly better in predicting renal replacement therapy requirements during admission compared with the other scores (AUC: 0.844, 95% CI: 0.805-0.883).

Conclusions

MELD 3.0 demonstrated better performance compared with MELD-Na and mDF in predicting 30-day and 90-day mortality, and was the best predictor of renal replacement therapy requirements during admission for AH. However, further prospective studies are needed to validate its extensive use in AH.

Impact and implications

Severe AH has high short-term mortality. The establishment of treatments and liver transplantation depends on mortality prediction. We evaluated the performance of the new MELD 3.0 score to predict short-term mortality in AH in a large global cohort. MELD 3.0 performed better in predicting 30- and 90-day mortality compared with MELD-Na and mDF, but was similar to MELD and ABIC scores. MELD 3.0 was the best predictor of renal replacement therapy requirements. Thus, further prospective studies are needed to support the wide use of MELD 3.0 in AH.

Quantifying the benefit of nonselective beta-blockers in the prevention of hepatic decompensation: A Bayesian reanalysis of the PREDESCI trial

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Beta-blockers have been studied for the prevention of variceal bleeding and, more recently, for the prevention of all-cause decompensation. Some uncertainties regarding the benefit of beta-blockers for the prevention of decompensation remain. Bayesian analyses enhance the interpretation of trials. The purpose of this study was to provide clinically meaningful estimates of both the probability and magnitude of the benefit of beta-blocker treatment across a range of patient types.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

We undertook a Bayesian reanalysis of PREDESCI incorporating 3 priors (moderate neutral, moderate optimistic, and weak pessimistic). The probability of clinical benefit was assessed considering the prevention of all-cause decompensation. Microsimulation analyses were done to determine the magnitude of the benefit. In the Bayesian analysis, the probability that beta-blockers reduce all-cause decompensation was >0.93 for all priors. The Bayesian posterior hazard ratios (HR) for decompensation ranged from 0.50 (optimistic prior, 95% credible interval 0.27-0.93) to 0.70 (neutral prior, 95% credible interval 0.44-1.12). Exploring the benefit of treatment using microsimulation highlights substantial treatment benefits. For the neutral prior derived posterior HR and a 5% annual incidence of decompensation, at 10 years, an average of 497 decompensation-free years per 1000 patients were gained with treatment. In contrast, at 10 years 1639 years per 1000 patients were gained from the optimistic prior derived posterior HR and a 10% incidence of decompensation.

CONCLUSIONS

Beta-blocker treatment is associated with a high probability of clinical benefit. This likely translates to a substantial gain in decompensation-free life years at the population level.

Update in the Treatment of the Complications of Cirrhosis

Cirrhosis consists of 2 main stages: compensated and decompensated, the latter defined by the development/presence of ascites, variceal hemorrhage, and hepatic encephalopathy. The survival rate is entirely different, depending on the stage. Treatment with nonselective β-blockers prevents decompensation in patients with clinically significant portal hypertension, changing the previous paradigm based on the presence of varices. In patients with acute variceal hemorrhage at high risk of failure with standard treatment (defined as those with a Child-Pugh score of 10-13 or those with a Child-Pugh score of 8-9 with active bleeding at endoscopy), a pre-emptive transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) improves the mortality rate and has become the standard of care in many centers. In patients with bleeding from gastrofundal varices, retrograde transvenous obliteration (in those with a gastrorenal shunt) and/or variceal cyanoacrylate injection have emerged as alternatives to TIPS. In patients with ascites, emerging evidence suggests that TIPS might be used earlier, before strict criteria for refractory ascites are met. Long-term albumin use is under assessment for improving the prognosis of patients with uncomplicated ascites and confirmatory studies are ongoing. Hepatorenal syndrome is the least common cause of acute kidney injury in cirrhosis, and first-line treatment is the combination of terlipressin and albumin. Hepatic encephalopathy has a profound impact on the quality of life of patients with cirrhosis. Lactulose and rifaximin are first- and second-line treatments for hepatic encephalopathy, respectively. Newer therapies such as L-ornithine L-aspartate and albumin require further assessment.

Metabolomics as a tool to predict the risk of decompensation or liver-related death in patients with compensated cirrhosis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Patients with compensated cirrhosis with clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH: HVPG > 10 mm Hg) have a high risk of decompensation. HVPG is, however, an invasive procedure not available in all centers. The present study aims to assess whether metabolomics can improve the capacity of clinical models in predicting clinical outcomes in these compensated patients.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

This is a nested study from the PREDESCI cohort (an RCT of nonselective beta-blockers vs. placebo in 201 patients with compensated cirrhosis and CSPH), including 167 patients for whom a blood sample was collected. A targeted metabolomic serum analysis, using ultra-high-performance liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry, was performed. Metabolites underwent univariate time-to-event cox regression analysis. Top-ranked metabolites were selected using Log-Rank p -value to generate a stepwise cox model. Comparison between models was done using DeLong test. Eighty-two patients with CSPH were randomized to nonselective beta-blockers and 85 to placebo. Thirty-three patients developed the main endpoint (decompensation/liver-related death). The model, including HVPG, Child-Pugh, and treatment received ( HVPG/Clinical model ), had a C-index of 0.748 (CI95% 0.664-0.827). The addition of 2 metabolites, ceramide (d18:1/22:0) and methionine (HVPG/Clinical/Metabolite model), significantly improved the model's performance [C-index of 0.808 (CI95% 0.735-0.882); p =0.032]. The combination of these 2 metabolites together with Child-Pugh and the type of treatment received (Clinical/Metabolite model) had a C-index of 0.785 (CI95% 0.710-0.860), not significantly different from the HVPG-based models including or not metabolites.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with compensated cirrhosis and CSPH, metabolomics improves the capacity of clinical models and achieves similar predictive capacity than models including HVPG.

Alcohol-related liver disease phenotype impacts survival after an acute variceal bleeding episode

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Alcohol-related hepatitis (AH) encompasses a high mortality. AH might be a concomitant event in patients with acute variceal bleeding (AVB). The current study aimed to assess the prevalence of AH in patients with AVB and to compare the clinical outcomes of AH patients to other alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) phenotypes and viral cirrhosis.

METHODS

Multicentre, observational study including 916 patients with AVB falling under the next categories: AH (n = 99), ALD cirrhosis actively drinking (d-ALD) (n = 285), ALD cirrhosis abstinent from alcohol (a-ALD) (n = 227) and viral cirrhosis (n = 305). We used a Cox proportional hazards model to calculate adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of death adjusted by MELD.

RESULTS

The prevalence of AH was 16% considering only ALD patients. AH patients exhibited more complications. Forty-two days transplant-free survival was worse among AH, but statistical differences were only observed between AH and d-ALD groups (84 vs. 93%; p = 0.005), when adjusted by MELD no differences were observed between AH and the other groups. At one-year, survival of AH patients (72.7%) was similar to the other groups; when adjusted by MELD mortality HR was better in AH compared to a-ALD (0.48; 0.29-0.8, p = 0.004). Finally, active drinkers who remained abstinent presented better survival, independently of having AH.

CONCLUSIONS

Contrary to expected, AH patients with AVB present no worse one-year survival than other patients with different alcohol-related phenotypes or viral cirrhosis. Abstinence influences long-term survival and could explain these counterintuitive results.

Hepatic encephalopathy is not a contraindication to pre-emptive TIPS in high-risk patients with cirrhosis with variceal bleeding

BACKGROUND

A pre-emptive transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (pTIPS) reduces mortality in high-risk patients with cirrhosis (Child-Pugh C/B+active bleeding) with acute variceal bleeding (AVB). Real-life studies point out that <15% of patients eligible for pTIPS ultimately undergo transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) due to concerns about hepatic encephalopathy (HE). The outcome of patients undergoing pTIPS with HE is unknown. We aimed to (1) assess the prevalence of HE in patients with AVB; (2) evaluate the outcome of patients presenting HE at admission after pTIPS; and (3) determine if HE at admission is a risk factor for death and post-TIPS HE.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This is an observational study including 2138 patients from 34 centres between October 2011 and May 2015. Placement of pTIPS was based on individual centre policy. Patients were followed up to 1 year, death or liver transplantation.

RESULTS

671 of 2138 patients were considered at high risk, 66 received pTIPS and 605 endoscopic+drug treatment. At admission, HE was significantly more frequent in high-risk than in low-risk patients (39.2% vs 10.6%, p<0.001). In high-risk patients with HE at admission, pTIPS was associated with a lower 1-year mortality than endoscopic+drug (HR 0.374, 95% CI 0.166 to 0.845, p=0.0181). The incidence of HE was not different between patients treated with pTIPS and endoscopic+drug (38.2% vs 38.7%, p=0.9721), even in patients with HE at admission (56.4% vs 58.7%, p=0.4594). Age >56, shock, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score >15, endoscopic+drug treatment and HE at admission were independent factors of death in high-risk patients.

CONCLUSION

pTIPS is associated with better survival than endoscopic treatment in high-risk patients with cirrhosis with variceal bleeding displaying HE at admission.

A237 STATIN USE IN LIVER TRANSPLANT: INDICATION, USE, AND IMPACT OF STATIN THERAPY ON PATIENT OUTCOMES

Background

Cardiovascular and metabolic diseases are prevalent among patients with chronic liver disease (CLD) and contribute to adverse outcomes and mortality. Prior studies have hypothesized statin therapy improves liver transplant (LT) survival due to anti-inflammatory properties and reduced cardiac risk. Evidence for use of statins in this population is limited as acute liver failure or decompensated cirrhosis is considered a contraindication. Despite evidence supporting statin therapy in CLD their use remains inconsistent.

Purpose

Our study aimed to evaluate the indication and rate of statin use in patients both pre- and post-LT, as well as the impact on post-LT patient survival, graft failure, and post-LT cardiovascular and metabolic disease.

Method

This was a retrospective cohort study of adult LT recipients at the University of Alberta, Edmonton, Canada between 2005 and 2020. Exclusion criteria included pre-transplant acute liver failure, multi-visceral transplant, and re-transplant. Demographic, pharmaceutical and clinical data was collected through review of electronic medical records. Primary endpoints included rate of statin use, post-LT patient survival, and graft failure; secondary endpoints included development of cardiac disease, dyslipidemia, and metabolic syndrome post-LT.

Result(s)

We identified 868 patients meeting inclusion criteria; 596 (68.7%) were male, 713 (82.3%) were Caucasian, and median age at transplant was 55. The most common indication for LT was hepatocellular carcinoma in 291 patients (33.5%), followed by Hepatitis C Virus (24.0%), and alcohol liver disease (16.9%). There were no significant demographic differences between those who were and were not on statin therapy. In the pre-LT period only 3% of patients were on statins, despite 7% of patients having dyslipidemia and 24% having diabetes. A total of 261 patients (29.9%) were placed on statins post-LT. The use of statins post-LT was associated with decreased mortality (OR 0.433, 95% CI [0.302-0.622], p<0.001) and decreased graft failure (OR 0.398, 95% CI [0.276-0.574], p<0.001), however it was also associated with increased graft rejection (OR 1.40, 95% CI [1.02-1.93], p=0.039). There were no significant differences in the development of dyslipidemia, metabolic syndrome or cardiac events in post-LT patients regardless of statin use.

Conclusion(s)

In our study we identified an association between statin use in the post-LT setting and improved mortality and graft survival. We did not find an association with improved cardiac or metabolic outcomes. The negative association between statin use and post-LT rejection may reflect detection bias as patients with rejection are closely monitored. We also identified a discrepancy between the number of patients with indication for statin use and those who were on statins both pre and post LT, reflecting underutilization consistent with prior literature. Additional studies are required to elucidate the role of statin medications in the transplant hepatologists armamentarium.

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A64 THE UPTAKE AND IMPACT OF AN ELECTRONIC CIRRHOSIS ADMISSION ORDER SET: AN EARLY EXPERIENCE AT A SINGLE CENTRE

Background

Cirrhosis is a chronic disease that confers high morbidity and mortality. It is a leading cause for hospital admissions and leads to significant healthcare resource utilization. Several guidelines outline recommendations to provide best practice to hospitalized patients with cirrhosis. Despite studies supporting a reduction in mortality when guideline based care is followed, this is achieved in less than 50% of hospitalized patients with cirrhosis¹. Standardized electronic order sets can be a potential tool to improving clinical outcomes and bridging this gap in care.

Purpose

Since March 2021, an electronic cirrhosis admission order set has been available for at our hospital site. Using administrative data, we aimed to describe our early experience with: a) order set uptake by various services, b) characteristics of the population in which the order set was used versus not used, and explore c) the impact of order set use on in-hospital mortality.

Method

In this single centre cohort study, patients with cirrhosis were identified based an administrative data algorithm containing codes for cirrhosis and complications. This data was used to retrieve parameters such as patient age, sex, primary admitting service, resource intensity weight (RIW), Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) and in-hospital mortality. The chi-squared test and independent samples t-test were used to compare characteristics of patients in whom the order set was used versus not used. Multivariable logistic regression was used to determine the impact of order set use on in-hospital mortality. P value significance was established at <0.05.

Result(s)

A total of 825 patients were included in the analysis. The overall mean age (standard deviation) of patients was 58.5 (14.2) years with 57.5% being male. Average length of stay was 11.3 days with a mean CCI of 3.2 (2.3) and RIW of 3.3 (7.2). The primary admitting service was Gastroenterology in 36.1%, Internal Medicine in 35.6% and other services in 28.3% of cases. Of those admitted, the order set was used in 27.2% of cases. The overall in-hospital mortality of patients was 14.2%.

Mean age, sex and CCI were not significantly different in patients admitted with the order set versus without. In patients admitted with the order set compared to without, RIW was significantly lower (2.06 (2.62) versus 3.80 (8.2), p<0.001), as was length of stay (9.5 (11.8) days compared to 12.0 (18.6) days, p =0.03) and in-hospital mortality (8.5% versus 16.3%, p =0.003). On multivariable regression analysis (Table 1), after adjustment for age, RIW and CCI, use of the order set was associated with lower in-hospital mortality (odds ratio 0.53 (95% CI 0.3 to 0.9), p=0.02).

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Conclusion(s)

Uptake of the electronic cirrhosis admission order set was modest at only 27% of eligible admissions. Although it appears to be associated with lower in-hospital mortality, a chart review is in process to assess if this association still holds after accounting for the impact of additional confounders.

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How strong is the evidence to support statins repurposing for the treatment of cirrhosis?

In this editorial, we briefly mention the studies that support the use of statins to change the natural history of liver cirrhosis, alongside potential biases and flaws that need to be considered when analyzing data. The key message that we want to communicate is that even if current evidence is somehow compelling, it is limited, mostly from observational studies, and in general not enough to formally recommend the prescription of statins in patients with cirrhosis as disease-modifying agents. Finally, we also mention some important facts about the safety of statins in the context of patients with underlying liver disease.

The impact of multidrug-resistant microorganisms on critically ill patients with cirrhosis in the intensive care unit: a cohort study

The impact of multidrug-resistant (MDR) colonization and MDR infection in critically ill cirrhosis patients remains unclear. We assessed the association of MDR colonization and MDR infection with these patients' survival. Observational cohort study including adult cirrhosis patients admitted to 5 intensive care units at Northwestern Memorial Hospital (Chicago, Illinois, USA) on January 1, 2010, to December 31, 2017. Patients admitted for elective liver transplant or with previous liver transplant were excluded. Patients were screened for MDR colonization on intensive care unit admission. Infection diagnoses during the intensive care unit stay were considered. The primary endpoint was hospital transplant-free survival. Among 600 patients included, 362 (60%) were men and median (interquartile range) age was 58.0 (49.0, 64.0) years. Median (interquartile range) Model for End-stage Liver Disease, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment, and Chronic Liver Failure-Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure scores on intensive care unit day 1 were 28.0 (20.0, 36.0), 9.0 (6.0, 13.0), and 55.0 (48.0, 64.0), respectively. Overall, 76 (13%) patients were transplanted and 443 (74%) survived the hospital stay. Infections were diagnosed in 347 (58%) patients: pneumonia in 197 (33%), urinary tract infection in 119 (20%), peritonitis in 93 (16%), bloodstream infection in 99 (16%), Clostridium difficile colitis in 9 (2%), and catheter tip infection in 7 (1%). MDR colonization and MDR infection were identified in 200 (33%) and 69 (12%) patients, respectively. MDR colonization was associated with MDR infection (p < 0.001). MDR colonization or MDR infection was associated with higher number and duration of antibiotics (p < 0.001). Following adjustment for covariables (age, sex, etiology, portal hypertension, and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score), MDR colonization [OR (95% CI), 0.64 (0.43, 0.95)] or MDR infection [adjusted OR (95% CI), 0.22 (0.12, 0.40)] were independently associated with lower transplant-free survival. Among critically ill cirrhosis patients, MDR colonization or MDR infection portended a worse prognosis.

Pre-emptive TIPSS in Acute Variceal Bleeding: Current Status, Controversies, and Future Directions

Acute variceal bleeding (AVB) is associated with significant short-term morbidity and mortality. Pre-emptive transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (p-TIPSS) is recommended to prevent rebleeding in AVB patients with a high risk of rebleeding. Despite the benefit of preventing rebleeding and de-novo ascites, the uptake of p-TIPSS remains low because logistic challenges in the real-world setting. In this review, we summarize the current evidence and controversies on p-TIPSS including patient selection for p-TIPSS, particularly in the setting of NASH cirrhosis and acute-on-chronic liver failure, the role of sarcopenia, renal impairment in the setting of p-TIPSS. Finally, we summarize both pharmacological and nonpharmacological strategies to optimize outcomes in patients undergoing p-TIPSS.

Immune-Based Therapy for Hospitalized Patients With COVID-19 and Risk of Secondary Infections: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Background

Immune-based therapies are standard-of-care treatment for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients requiring hospitalization. However, safety concerns related to the potential risk of secondary infections may limit their use.

Methods

We searched OVID Medline, Ovid EMBASE, SCOPUS, Cochrane Library, clinicaltrials.gov, and PROSPERO in October 2020 and updated the search in November 2021. We included randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Pairs of reviewers screened abstracts and full studies and extracted data in an independent manner. We used RevMan to conduct a meta-analysis using random-effects models to calculate the pooled risk ratio (RR) and 95% CI for the incidence of infection. Statistical heterogeneity was determined using the I ² statistic. We assessed risk of bias for all studies and rated the certainty of evidence using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation methodology. We conducted a meta-regression using the R package to meta-explore whether age, sex, and invasive mechanical ventilation modified risk of infection with immune-based therapies. The protocol is registered with PROSPERO (CRD42021229406).

Results

This was a meta-analysis of 37 RCTs including 32 621 participants (mean age, 60 years; 64% male). The use of immune-based therapy for COVID-19 conferred mild protection for the occurrence of secondary infections (711/15 721, 4.5%, vs 616/16 900, 3.6%; RR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.71-0.95; P = .008; I ² = 28%). A subgroup analysis did not identify any subgroup effect by type of immune-based therapies (P = .85). A meta-regression revealed no impact of age, sex, or mechanical ventilation on the effect of immune-based therapies on risk of infection.

Conclusions

We identified moderate-certainty evidence that the use of immune-based therapies in COVID-19 requiring hospitalization does not increase the risk of secondary infections.

Clinical, histological and molecular profiling of different stages of alcohol-related liver disease

OBJECTIVE

Alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) ranges from never-decompensated ALD (ndALD) to the life-threatening decompensated phenotype, known as alcohol-related hepatitis (AH). A multidimensional study of the clinical, histological and molecular features of these subtypes is lacking.

DESIGN

Two large cohorts of patients were recruited in an international, observational multicentre study: a retrospective cohort of patients with ndALD (n=110) and a prospective cohort of patients with AH (n=225). Clinical, analytical, immunohistochemistry and hepatic RNA microarray analysis of both disease phenotypes were performed.

RESULTS

Age and mean alcohol intake were similar in both groups. AH patients had greater aspartate amino transferase/alanine amino transferase ratio and lower gamma-glutamyl transferase levels than in ndALD patients. Patients with AH demonstrated profound liver failure and increased mortality. One-year mortality was 10% in ndALD and 50% in AH. Histologically, steatosis grade, ballooning and pericellular fibrosis were similar in both groups, while advanced fibrosis, Mallory-Denk bodies, bilirubinostasis, severe neutrophil infiltration and ductular reaction were more frequent among AH patients. Transcriptome analysis revealed a profound gene dysregulation within both phenotypes when compare to controls. While ndALD was characterised by deregulated expression of genes involved in matrisome and immune response, the development of AH resulted in a marked deregulation of genes involved in hepatocyte reprogramming and bile acid metabolism.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite comparable alcohol intake, AH patients presented with worse liver function compared with ndALD patients. Bilirubinostasis, severe fibrosis and ductular reaction were prominent features of AH. AH patients exhibited a more profound deregulation of gene expression compared with ndALD patients.

North American Practice-Based Recommendations for Transjugular Intrahepatic Portosystemic Shunts in Portal Hypertension

Complications of portal hypertension, including ascites, gastrointestinal bleeding, hepatic hydrothorax, and hepatic encephalopathy, are associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Despite few high-quality randomized controlled trials to guide therapeutic decisions, transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) creation has emerged as a crucial therapeutic option to treat complications of portal hypertension. In North America, the decision to perform TIPS involves gastroenterologists, hepatologists, and interventional radiologists, but TIPS creation is performed by interventional radiologists. This is in contrast to other parts of the world where TIPS creation is performed primarily by hepatologists. Thus, the successful use of TIPS in North America is dependent on a multidisciplinary approach and technical expertise, so as to optimize outcomes. Recently, new procedural techniques, TIPS stent technology, and indications for TIPS have emerged. As a result, practices and outcomes vary greatly across institutions and significant knowledge gaps exist. In this consensus statement, the Advancing Liver Therapeutic Approaches group critically reviews the application of TIPS in the management of portal hypertension. Advancing Liver Therapeutic Approaches convened a multidisciplinary group of North American experts from hepatology, interventional radiology, transplant surgery, nephrology, cardiology, pulmonology, and hematology to critically review existing literature and develop practice-based recommendations for the use of TIPS in patients with any cause of portal hypertension in terms of candidate selection, procedural best practices and, post-TIPS management; and to develop areas of consensus for TIPS indications and the prevention of complications. Finally, future research directions are identified related to TIPS for the management of portal hypertension.

Heterologous adenovirus-vector/messenger RNA regimen is associated with improved severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 humoral response in liver transplant recipients

Knowledge of the immunogenicity of vaccines against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in liver transplant recipients (LTRs) is mainly limited to messenger RNA (mRNA)-based types. We aimed to evaluate the humoral response in LTRs and to address the use of different doses of mycophenolate (MMF) on the probability of developing anti-spike immunoglobulin G (IgG). In this prospective cohort study, SARS-CoV-2 anti-spike IgG, neutralizing antibodies (NAs), and nucleocapsid protein (N) were evaluated in LTRs and healthy volunteers 21-90 days after receiving the second vaccine dose of either ChAdOx1 (AstraZeneca), rAd26-rAd5 (Sputnik V), inactivated BBIBP-CorV (Sinopharm), or the heterologous combination rAd26/mRNA-1273 (Sputnik V/Moderna). We collected information regarding clinical data and vaccine side effects. After excluding three LTRs due to a positive N test, 120 LTRs and 27 controls were analyzed. No significant differences were found among groups. Overall, 24 (89%) controls and 74 (62%) LTRs were positive for anti-spike IgG (p = 0.007). Among LTRs, those immunized with rAd26/mRNA-1273 presented significantly higher positive serology and NAs when compared with the homologous regimens (91% vs. 55%, p = 0.001; and 1182 IU/ml vs. 446 IU/ml, p = 0.002; respectively). In the multivariate analysis, humoral response was significantly reduced in LTRs who received higher doses of MMF (odds ratio [OR], 0.1; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.03-0.3; p < 0.001) and with increased BMI (OR, 0.4; 95% CI, 0.2-0.7; p = 0.005); and it was significantly higher in those immunized with rAd26/mRNA-1273 (OR, 13.1; 95% CI, 2.3-72.9; p = 0.003). In LTRs anti-spike IgG concentrations showed a very good correlation with NA titers (R² = 0.949; 95% CI, 0.919-0.967; p < 0.001). No serious adverse events were reported in either group. Conclusion: In LTRs, rAd26/mRNA-1273 was independently associated with higher antibody response. Future studies are necessary to evaluate whether combining different vaccine platforms and MMF reduction may lead to a better booster response.

Sarcopenia HIBA score predicts sarcopenia and mortality in patients on the liver transplant waiting list

Sarcopenia is a prevalent condition that predicts prognosis in patients awaiting liver transplantation (LT). The gold standard for the diagnosis of sarcopenia is the assessment of the muscular area at L3 with computed tomography (CT) scan (skeletal muscle index [SMI]), but the routine use of CT scan is limited in clinical practice. Thus, we designed a single-center observational study aimed to evaluate the clinical factors associated with the presence of sarcopenia by SMI, and to build a score capable of predicting or excluding the presence of sarcopenia in patients on the LT waiting list (WL). Binary logistic regression analysis was performed to establish the factors independently associated with sarcopenia, and the Sarcopenia Hospital Italiano de Buenos Aires (HIBA) score was built from the resulting model after internal validation analysis by bootstrapping and correction for optimism. The predictive capability of mortality on the WL was evaluated with competing risk regression analysis. A total of 215 patients with cirrhosis on the LT WL were included. The independent factors associated with the presence of sarcopenia were male sex (odds ratio [OR]: 6.09, p < 0.001), body mass index (OR: 0.74, p < 0.001), Child Pugh (OR: 1.44, p < 0.001), and the ratio creatinine/Cystatin C (OR: 0.03, p = 0.007). The Sarcopenia HIBA score constructed with these variables showed an area under the curve of 0.862. During follow-up, 77 (36%) patients underwent LT, 46 (21%) died, and 92 (43%) remained alive. After adjusting for Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Sodium, Sarcopenia HIBA score was an independent predictor of WL mortality (subhazard ratio: 1.19; 95% confidence interval 1.01-1.40; p = 0.042). Sarcopenia HIBA score is an easy-to-use, objective, and reliable diagnostic and predictive tool that can be useful to improve the prognostic evaluation and allow identifying a group of patients with a higher risk of death while awaiting LT.

Treatment With Simvastatin and Rifaximin Restores the Plasma Metabolomic Profile in Patients With Decompensated Cirrhosis

Patients with decompensated cirrhosis, particularly those with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), show profound alterations in plasma metabolomics. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of treatment with simvastatin and rifaximin on plasma metabolites of patients with decompensated cirrhosis, specifically on compounds characteristic of the ACLF plasma metabolomic profile. Two cohorts of patients were investigated. The first was a descriptive cohort of patients with decompensated cirrhosis (n = 42), with and without ACLF. The second was an intervention cohort from the LIVERHOPE-SAFETY randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial treated with simvastatin 20 mg/day plus rifaximin 1,200 mg/day (n = 12) or matching placebo (n = 13) for 3 months. Plasma samples were analyzed using ultrahigh performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectroscopy for plasma metabolomics characterization. ACLF was characterized by intense proteolysis and lipid alterations, specifically in pathways associated with inflammation and mitochondrial dysfunction, such as the tryptophan-kynurenine and carnitine beta-oxidation pathways. An ACLF-specific signature was identified. Treatment with simvastatin and rifaximin was associated with changes in 161 of 985 metabolites in comparison to treatment with placebo. A remarkable reduction in levels of metabolites from the tryptophan-kynurenine and carnitine pathways was found. Notably, 18 of the 32 metabolites of the ACLF signature were affected by the treatment. Conclusion: Treatment with simvastatin and rifaximin modulates some of the pathways that appear to be key in ACLF development. This study unveils some of the mechanisms involved in the effects of treatment with simvastatin and rifaximin in decompensated cirrhosis and sets the stage for the use of metabolomics to investigate new targeted therapies in cirrhosis to prevent ACLF development.

Effect of rifaximin on infections, acute-on-chronic liver failure and mortality in alcoholic hepatitis: A pilot study (RIFA-AH)

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Alcoholic hepatitis (AH) is associated with a high incidence of infection and mortality. Rifaximin reduces bacterial overgrowth and translocation. We aimed to study whether the administration of rifaximin as an adjuvant treatment to corticosteroids decreases the number of bacterial infections at 90 days in patients with severe AH compared to a control cohort.

METHODS

This was a multicentre, open, comparative pilot study of the addition of rifaximin (1200 mg/day/90 days) to the standard treatment for severe AH. The results were compared with a carefully matched historical cohort of patients treated with standard therapy and matching by age and model of end-stage liver disease (MELD). We evaluated bacterial infections, liver-related complications, mortality and liver function tests after 90 days.

RESULTS

Twenty-one and 42 patients were included in the rifaximin and control groups respectively. No significant baseline differences were found between groups. The mean number of infections per patient was 0.29 and 0.62 in the rifaximin and control groups, respectively (p = .049), with a lower incidence of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) linked to infections within the treatment group. Liver-related complications were lower within the rifaximin group (0.43 vs. 1.26 complications/patient respectively) (p = .01). Mortality was lower in the treated versus the control groups (14.2% vs. 30.9, p = .15) without significant differences. No serious adverse events were associated with rifaximin treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

Rifaximin is safe in severe AH with a significant reduction in clinical complications. A lower number of infections and a trend towards a lower ACLF and mortality favours its use in these patients.

Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Hospitalizations for Alcoholic Hepatitis or Cirrhosis in Alberta, Canada

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic lockdown and restrictions had significant disruption to patient care. We aimed to evaluate the impact of COVID-19 restrictions on hospitalizations of patients with alcoholic and nonalcoholic cirrhosis as well as alcoholic hepatitis (AH) in Alberta, Canada.

METHODS

We used validated International Classification of Diseases (ICD-9 and ICD-10) coding algorithms to identify liver-related hospitalizations for nonalcoholic cirrhosis, alcoholic cirrhosis, and AH in the province of Alberta between March 2018 and September 2020. We used the provincial inpatient discharge and laboratory databases to identify our cohorts. We used elevated alanine aminotransferase or aspartate aminotransferase, elevated international normalized ratio, or bilirubin to identify AH patients. We compared COVID-19 restrictions (April-September 2020) with prior study periods. Joinpoint regression was used to evaluate the temporal trends among the 3 cohorts.

RESULTS

We identified 2916 hospitalizations for nonalcoholic cirrhosis, 2318 hospitalizations for alcoholic cirrhosis, and 1408 AH hospitalizations during our study time. The in-hospital mortality rate was stable in relation to the pandemic for alcoholic cirrhosis and AH. However, nonalcoholic cirrhosis patients had lower in-hospital mortality rate after March 2020 (8.5% vs 11.5%; P = .033). There was a significant increase in average monthly admissions in the AH cohort (22.1/10,000 admissions during the pandemic vs 11.6/10,000 admissions before March 2020; P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

Before and during COVID-19 monthly admission rates were stable for nonalcoholic and alcoholic cirrhosis; however, there was a significant increase in AH admissions. Because alcohol sales surged during the pandemic, future impact on alcoholic liver disease could be detrimental.

Association between Gut Colonization of Vancomycin-resistant Enterococci and Liver Transplant Outcomes

BACKGROUND

Vancomycin-resistant enterococci (VRE) colonization is common in liver transplant recipients and has been associated with worse post-transplant outcomes.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study at the University of Alberta Hospital including patients who underwent a liver transplant between September 2014 and December 2017.

RESULTS

Of 343 patients, 68 (19.8%) had pre-transplant VRE colonization and 27 (27/275, 9.8%) acquired VRE post-transplant, 67% were males and the median age was 56.5 years. VRE colonized patients at baseline had higher MELD scores and required longer post-transplant hospitalization. VRE colonization was associated with increased risk of early acute kidney injury (AKI) (64% vs 52%, p = 0. 044), clinically significant bacterial/fungal infection (29% vs 17%, p = 0. 012) and invasive VRE infection (5% vs 1%, p = 0. 017). Mortality at 2-years was 13% in VRE-colonized versus 7% in non-colonized (p = 0.085). On multivariate analysis, VRE colonization increased the risk of post-transplant AKI (HR 1.504, 95% CI: 1.077-2.100, p = 0.017) and clinically significant bacterial or fungal infection at 6 months (HR 2.038, 95%CI: 1.222-3.399, p = 0.006), and was associated with non-significant trend towards increased risk of mortality at 2-years post-transplant (HR 1.974 95% CI 0.890-4.378; p = 0.094).

CONCLUSIONS

VRE colonization in liver transplant patients is associated with increased risk of early AKI, clinically significant infections, and a trend towards increased mortality at 2-years. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Frailty is associated with increased risk of cirrhosis disease progression and death

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The Liver Frailty Index (LFI) is a well-studied tool that evaluates frailty in patients with cirrhosis. Consisting of grip strength, chair stands, and balance testing, the LFI has been associated with increased mortality in patients awaiting liver transplant. We aimed to extend our understanding of frailty in cirrhosis by exploring the relationship between the LFI and the risk of (1) cirrhosis progression, (2) mortality, and (3) unplanned hospitalizations, in both compensated and decompensated disease.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

Adult patients with cirrhosis from four centers in North America and one in India were included. Frailty was measured at baseline using the LFI and categorized as robust (LFI < 3.2), prefrail (LFI 3.2-4.5), and frail (LFI > 4.5). Progression of cirrhosis was defined by an increase in clinical stage, ranging from 1 to 5, from baseline using the D'Amico classification. Factors associated with progression, mortality, and hospitalizations were evaluated using multivariate regression models, with transplant as a competing risk. In total, 822 patients with cirrhosis were included. Average Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score was 15.5 ± 6.0. In patients with compensated cirrhosis, being frail versus robust was associated with increased risk of progression to the next cirrhosis stage or to death (HR, 2.45; 95% CI, 1.14-5.29) and with an increased risk of unplanned hospitalizations (2.32; 95% CI, 1.13-4.79), after adjusting for age, sex, and MELD score. Similar HRs were observed in patients with decompensated cirrhosis.

CONCLUSIONS

Frailty was an independent predictor of cirrhosis progression or death and unplanned hospitalization across patients with compensated and decompensated cirrhosis. Future studies are needed to evaluate the possibility of slowing cirrhosis disease progression by reversing or preventing frailty.

Trajectory of Serum Bilirubin Predicts Spontaneous Recovery in a Real-World Cohort of Patients With Alcoholic Hepatitis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Alcoholic hepatitis (AH) is a severe condition with poor short-term prognosis. Specific treatment with corticosteroids slightly improves short-term survival but is associated with infection and is not used in many centers. A reliable method to identify patients who will recover spontaneously will minimise the numbers of patients who experience side effects of available treatments.

METHODS

We analysed the trajectory of serum bilirubin concentration over the course of hospital admissions in patients with AH to predict spontaneous survival and the need for treatment.

RESULTS

data from 426 patients were analysed. Based on bilirubin trajectory, patients were categorized into three groups: 'fast fallers' (bilirubin <0.8 x admission value at day 7), 'static' (bilirubin of >0.9 - <1.2 x admission value) and 'rapid risers' (bilirubin of ≥1.2 x admission bilirubin). Fast fallers had significantly better 90-day survival compared to other groups (log rank p < .001), and showed no benefit of corticosteroid therapy (OR for survival at 28 days of treatment, 0.94, 95% CI 0.06 - 8.41). These findings remained even amongst patients with severe disease based on initial DF, GAHS or MELD scores.

CONCLUSIONS

We present an intuitive method of classifying patients with AH based on the trajectory of bilirubin over the first week of admission. It is complimentary to existing scores that identify candidates for corticosteroid treatment or assess response to treatment. This method identifies a group of patients with AH who recover spontaneously and can avoid corticosteroid therapy.

The MELD Score Is Superior to the Maddrey Discriminant Function Score to Predict Short-Term Mortality in Alcohol-Associated Hepatitis: A Global Study

INTRODUCTION

Several scoring systems predict mortality in alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH), including the Maddrey discriminant function (mDF) and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score developed in the United States, Glasgow alcoholic hepatitis score in the United Kingdom, and age, bilirubin, international normalized ratio, and creatinine score in Spain. To date, no global studies have examined the utility of these scores, nor has the MELD-sodium been evaluated for outcome prediction in AH. In this study, we assessed the accuracy of different scores to predict short-term mortality in AH and investigated additional factors to improve mortality prediction.

METHODS

Patients admitted to hospital with a definite or probable AH were recruited by 85 tertiary centers in 11 countries and across 3 continents. Baseline demographic and laboratory variables were obtained. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality at 28 and 90 days.

RESULTS

In total, 3,101 patients were eligible for inclusion. After exclusions (n = 520), 2,581 patients were enrolled (74.4% male, median age 48 years, interquartile range 40.9-55.0 years). The median MELD score was 23.5 (interquartile range 20.5-27.8). Mortality at 28 and 90 days was 20% and 30.9%, respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for 28-day mortality ranged from 0.776 for MELD-sodium to 0.701 for mDF, and for 90-day mortality, it ranged from 0.773 for MELD to 0.709 for mDF. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for mDF to predict death was significantly lower than all other scores. Age added to MELD obtained only a small improvement of AUC.

DISCUSSION

These results suggest that the mDF score should no longer be used to assess AH's prognosis. The MELD score has the best performance in predicting short-term mortality.

Impact of statin treatment on non-invasive tests based predictions of fibrosis in a referral pathway for NAFLD

OBJECTIVE

In non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), fibrosis determines the risk of liver complications. Non-invasive tests (NITs) such as FIB-4, NAFLD Fibrosis Score (NFS) and Hepamet, have been proposed as a tool to triage NAFLD patients in primary care (PC). These NITs include AST±ALT in their calculations. Many patients with NAFLD take statins, which can affect AST/ALT, but it is unknown if statin affects NITs fibrosis prediction.

METHODS

We included 856 patients referred through a standardised pathway from PC with a final diagnosis of NAFLD. 832 had reliable vibration controlled transient elastography (VCTE) measurements. We assessed the effects of statins on the association between NITs and VCTE at different fibrosis thresholds.

RESULTS

129 out of 832 patients were taking a statin and 138 additional patients had indication for a statin. For any given FIB-4 value, patients on a statin had higher probabilities of high VCTE than patients not on a statin. Adjusting for body mass index, diabetes and age almost completely abrogated these differences, suggesting that these were related to patient's profile rather to a specific effect of statins. Negative predictive values (NPVs) of FIB-4 <1.3 for VCTE >8, 10, 12 and 16 were, respectively, 89, 94, 96% and 100% in patients on a statin and 92, 95, 98% and 99% in patients not on a statin. Statins had similar impact on Hepamet predictions but did not modify NFS predictions.

CONCLUSION

In patients with NAFLD referred from PC, those on statins had higher chances of a high VCTE for a given FIB-4 value, but this had a negligible impact on the NPV of the commonly used FIB-4 threshold (<1.3).

Test-Retest Reliability and Consistency of HVPG and Impact on Trial Design: A Study in 289 Patients from 20 Randomized Controlled Trials

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Portal hypertension (PH) is a major driver for cirrhosis complications. Portal pressure is estimated in practice by the HVPG. The assessment of HVPG changes has been used for drug development in PH. This study aimed at quantifying the test-retest reliability and consistency of HVPG in the specific context of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) for the treatment of PH in cirrhosis and its impact on power calculations for trial design.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

We conducted a search of published RCTs in patients with cirrhosis reporting individual patient-level data of HVPG at baseline and after an intervention, which included a placebo or an untreated control arm. Baseline and follow-up HVPGs in the control groups were extracted after digitizing the plots. We assessed reliability and consistency and the potential impact of study characteristics. We retrieved a total of 289 before and after HVPG measurements in the placebo/untreated groups from 20 RCTs. The time span between the two HVPG measurements ranged between 20 minutes and 730 days. Pre-/post-HVPG variability was lower in studies including only compensated patients; therefore, modeled sample size calculations for trials in compensated cirrhosis were lower than for decompensated cirrhosis. A higher proportion of alcohol-associated cirrhosis and unicentric trials was associated with lower differences between baseline and follow-up measurements. The smallest detectable difference in an individual was 26% and 30% in compensated and decompensated patients, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The test-retest reliability of HVPG is overall excellent. Within-individual variance was higher in studies including higher proportions of decompensated patients. These findings should be taken into account when performing power analysis for trials based on the effects on HVPG or when considering HVPG as a tool to guide therapy of PH.

Non-invasive alloimmune risk stratification of long-term liver transplant recipients

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Management of long-term immunosuppression following liver transplantation (LT) remains empirical. Surveillance liver biopsies in combination with transcriptional profiling could overcome this challenge by identifying recipients with active alloimmune-mediated liver damage despite normal liver tests, but this approach lacks applicability. Our aim was to investigate the utility of non-invasive tools for the stratification of stable long-term survivors of LT, according to their immunological risk and need for immunosuppression.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional multicentre study of 190 adult LT recipients assessed to determine their eligibility to participate in an immunosuppression withdrawal trial. Patients had stable liver allograft function and had been transplanted for non-autoimmune non-replicative viral liver disease >3 years before inclusion. We performed histological, immunogenetic and serological studies and measured the intrahepatic transcript levels of an 11-gene classifier highly specific for T cell-mediated rejection (TCMR).

RESULTS

In this cohort, 35.8% of patients harboured clinically silent fibro-inflammatory liver lesions (13.7% had mild damage and 22.1% had moderate-to-severe damage). The severity of liver allograft damage was positively associated with TCMR-related transcripts, class II donor-specific antibodies (DSAs), ALT, AST, and liver stiffness measurement (LSM), and negatively correlated with serum creatinine and tacrolimus trough levels. Liver biopsies were stratified according to their TCMR transcript levels using a cut-off derived from biopsies with clinically significant TCMR. Two multivariable prediction models, integrating ALT+LSM or ALT+class II DSAs, had a high discriminative capacity for classifying patients with or without alloimmune damage. The latter model performed well in an independent cohort of 156 liver biopsies obtained from paediatric liver recipients with similar inclusion/exclusion criteria.

CONCLUSION

ALT, class II DSAs and LSM are valuable tools to non-invasively identify stable LT recipients without significant underlying alloimmunity who could benefit from minimisation of immunosuppression.

LAY SUMMARY

A large proportion of liver transplant patients with normal liver tests have inflammatory liver lesions, which in 17% of cases are molecularly indistinguishable from those seen at the time of rejection. ALT, class II donor-specific antibodies and liver stiffness are useful in identifying patients with this form of subclinical rejection. We propose these markers as a useful tool to help clinicians determine if the immunosuppression administered is adequate.

Identification of optimal therapeutic window for steroid use in severe alcohol-associated hepatitis: A worldwide study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Corticosteroids are the only effective therapy for severe alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH), defined by a model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score >20. However, there are patients who may be too sick to benefit from therapy. Herein, we aimed to identify the range of MELD scores within which steroids are effective for AH.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective, international multicenter cohort study across 4 continents, including 3,380 adults with a clinical and/or histological diagnosis of AH. The main outcome was mortality at 30 days. We used a discrete-time survival analysis model, and MELD cut-offs were established using the transform-the-endpoints method.

RESULTS

In our cohort, median age was 49 (40-56) years, 76.5% were male, and 79% had underlying cirrhosis. Median MELD at admission was 24 (19-29). Survival was 88% (87-89) at 30 days, 77% (76-78) at 90 days, and 72% (72-74) at 180 days. A total of 1,225 patients received corticosteroids. In an adjusted-survival-model, corticosteroid use decreased 30-day mortality by 41% (hazard ratio [HR] 0.59; 0.47-0.74; p <0.001). Steroids only improved survival in patients with MELD scores between 21 (HR 0.61; 0.39-0.95; p = 0.027) and 51 (HR 0.72; 0.52-0.99; p = 0.041). The maximum effect of corticosteroid treatment (21-30% survival benefit) was observed with MELD scores between 25 (HR 0.58; 0.42-0.77; p <0.001) and 39 (HR 0.57; 0.41-0.79; p <0.001). No corticosteroid benefit was seen in patients with MELD >51. The type of corticosteroids used (prednisone, prednisolone, or methylprednisolone) was not associated with survival benefit (p = 0.247).

CONCLUSION

Corticosteroids improve 30-day survival only among patients with severe AH, especially with MELD scores between 25 and 39.

LAY SUMMARY

Alcohol-associated hepatitis is a condition where the liver is severely inflamed as a result of excess alcohol use. It is associated with high mortality and it is not clear whether the most commonly used treatments (corticosteroids) are effective, particularly in patients with very severe liver disease. In this worldwide study, the use of corticosteroids was associated with increased 30-day, but not 90- or 180-day, survival. The maximal benefit was observed in patients with an MELD score (a marker of severity of liver disease; higher scores signify worse disease) between 25-39. However, this benefit was lost in patients with the most severe liver disease (MELD score higher than 51).

Serum miR-181b-5p predicts ascites onset in patients with compensated cirrhosis

Background & Aims

Treatment with non-selective beta-blockers (NSBBs) reduces the risk of ascites, which is the most common decompensating event in cirrhosis. This study aimed to assess the ability of a serum microRNA (miRNA) signature to predict ascites formation and the hemodynamic response to NSBBs in compensated cirrhosis.

Methods

Serum levels of miR-452-5p, miR-429, miR-885-5p, miR-181b-5p, and miR-122-5p were analyzed in patients with compensated cirrhosis (N = 105). Hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) was measured at baseline, after intravenous propranolol, and 1 year after randomization to NSBBs (n = 52) or placebo (n = 53) (PREDESCI trial). miRNAs were analyzed at baseline and at 1 year.

Results

Nineteen patients (18%) developed ascites, of whom 17 developed ascites after 1 year. miR-181b-5p levels at 1 year, but not at baseline, were higher in patients that developed ascites. The AUC of miR-181b-5p at 1 year to predict ascites was 0.7 (95% CI 0.59–0.78). miR-429 levels were lower at baseline in acute HVPG responders to NSBBs (AUC 0.65; 95% CI, 0.53–0.76), but levels at baseline and at 1 year were not associated with the HVPG response to NSBBs at 1 year.

Conclusions

Serum miR-181b-5p is a promising non-invasive biomarker to identify patients with compensated cirrhosis at risk of ascites development.

Lay summary

Ascites marks the transition from the compensated to decompensated stage in cirrhosis and indicates a worsening in prognosis. There are currently no easily accessible tools to identify patients with compensated cirrhosis at risk of developing ascites. We evaluated the levels of novel molecules termed microRNAs in the blood of patients with compensated cirrhosis and observed that miR-181b-5p can predict which patients are going to develop ascites.

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miR-181b-5p appears to be a useful serum biomarker to anticipate ascites onset.

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Low serum miR-181b-5p indicates low risk of ascites in compensated cirrhosis.

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Low serum miR-429 reflects acute hemodynamic response to non-selective beta-blockers.