The MELD Score Is Superior to the Maddrey Discriminant Function Score to Predict Short-Term Mortality in Alcohol-Associated Hepatitis: A Global Study

INTRODUCTION

Several scoring systems predict mortality in alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH), including the Maddrey discriminant function (mDF) and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score developed in the United States, Glasgow alcoholic hepatitis score in the United Kingdom, and age, bilirubin, international normalized ratio, and creatinine score in Spain. To date, no global studies have examined the utility of these scores, nor has the MELD-sodium been evaluated for outcome prediction in AH. In this study, we assessed the accuracy of different scores to predict short-term mortality in AH and investigated additional factors to improve mortality prediction.

METHODS

Patients admitted to hospital with a definite or probable AH were recruited by 85 tertiary centers in 11 countries and across 3 continents. Baseline demographic and laboratory variables were obtained. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality at 28 and 90 days.

RESULTS

In total, 3,101 patients were eligible for inclusion. After exclusions (n = 520), 2,581 patients were enrolled (74.4% male, median age 48 years, interquartile range 40.9-55.0 years). The median MELD score was 23.5 (interquartile range 20.5-27.8). Mortality at 28 and 90 days was 20% and 30.9%, respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for 28-day mortality ranged from 0.776 for MELD-sodium to 0.701 for mDF, and for 90-day mortality, it ranged from 0.773 for MELD to 0.709 for mDF. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for mDF to predict death was significantly lower than all other scores. Age added to MELD obtained only a small improvement of AUC.

DISCUSSION

These results suggest that the mDF score should no longer be used to assess AH's prognosis. The MELD score has the best performance in predicting short-term mortality.

The emergence of meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus among injecting drug users

OBJECTIVE

To quantify an observed increase in meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) infections in injecting drug users (IDUs) and, using genetic analysis and clinical presentation, contrast findings with those from previous studies in Brighton to further understanding of the clinical epidemiology and underlying molecular biology associated with the increase.

METHODS

From 2006 to 2008, isolates of S. aureus were collected, together with clinical details from infected IDUs. Isolates were characterised using antibiotic susceptibilities, multilocus-sequence typing (MLST) and spa typing. The molecular epidemiology and patterns of clinical presentation were compared with results from 1999-2000 to 2000-2003.

RESULTS

From 2006 to 2008, 18/37 (49%) of clinical isolates from IDUs were MRSA compared with 4/59 (7%) in 2000-2003 and 0/48 (0%) in 1999-2000. Despite this increase, hospital attendances by IDUs for treatment of infection dropped from 3.2 to 1.1 patients per month. MLST showed a shift in population structure towards a single MRSA clone, ST1, rather than epidemic hospital-associated strains.

CONCLUSION

In IDUs between 2000-2003 and 2006-2008, an increase occurred in the percentage of community-associated S. aureus isolates showing meticillin-resistance, but hospital attendances decreased. IDUs may act as a focus for the emergence of resistant S. aureus strains.