The MELD Score Is Superior to the Maddrey Discriminant Function Score to Predict Short-Term Mortality in Alcohol-Associated Hepatitis: A Global Study

INTRODUCTION

Several scoring systems predict mortality in alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH), including the Maddrey discriminant function (mDF) and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score developed in the United States, Glasgow alcoholic hepatitis score in the United Kingdom, and age, bilirubin, international normalized ratio, and creatinine score in Spain. To date, no global studies have examined the utility of these scores, nor has the MELD-sodium been evaluated for outcome prediction in AH. In this study, we assessed the accuracy of different scores to predict short-term mortality in AH and investigated additional factors to improve mortality prediction.

METHODS

Patients admitted to hospital with a definite or probable AH were recruited by 85 tertiary centers in 11 countries and across 3 continents. Baseline demographic and laboratory variables were obtained. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality at 28 and 90 days.

RESULTS

In total, 3,101 patients were eligible for inclusion. After exclusions (n = 520), 2,581 patients were enrolled (74.4% male, median age 48 years, interquartile range 40.9-55.0 years). The median MELD score was 23.5 (interquartile range 20.5-27.8). Mortality at 28 and 90 days was 20% and 30.9%, respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for 28-day mortality ranged from 0.776 for MELD-sodium to 0.701 for mDF, and for 90-day mortality, it ranged from 0.773 for MELD to 0.709 for mDF. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for mDF to predict death was significantly lower than all other scores. Age added to MELD obtained only a small improvement of AUC.

DISCUSSION

These results suggest that the mDF score should no longer be used to assess AH's prognosis. The MELD score has the best performance in predicting short-term mortality.

No country for old livers? Examining and optimizing the utilization of elderly liver grafts

Of the 1.6 million patients >70 years of age who died of stroke since 2002, donor livers were retrieved from only 2402 (0.15% yield rate). Despite reports of successful liver transplantation (LT) with elderly grafts (EG), advanced donor age is considered a risk for poor outcomes. Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services definitions of an "eligible death" for donation excludes patients >70 years of age, creating disincentives to donation. We investigated utilization and outcomes of recipients of donors >70 through analysis of a United Network for Organ Sharing Standard Transplant Analysis and Research-file of adult LTs from 2002 to 2014. Survival analysis was conducted using Kaplan-Meier curves, and Cox regression was used to identify factors influencing outcomes of EG recipients. Three thousand one hundred four livers from donors >70, ≈40% of which were used in 2 regions: 2 (520/3104) and 9 (666/3104). Unadjusted survival was significantly worse among recipients of EG compared to recipients of younger grafts (P < .0001). Eight independent negative predictors of survival in recipients of EG were identified on multivariable analysis. Survival of low-risk recipients who received EG was significantly better than survival of recipients of younger grafts (P = .04). Outcomes of recipients of EG can therefore be optimized to equal outcomes of younger grafts. Given the large number of stroke deaths in patients >70 years of age, the yield rate of EGs can be maximized and disincentives removed to help resolve the organ shortage crisis.

Novel association between serum pentraxin-2 levels and advanced fibrosis in well-characterised patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

BACKGROUND

Pentraxin-2 (PTX-2), a serum protein, inhibits inflammation and fibrosis, and recombinant PTX-2 is being tested as an anti-fibrotic agent.

AIM

To evaluate the association between serum PTX-2 levels and fibrosis stage in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD).

METHODS

Serum pentraxin-2 levels were compared between four groups of well-characterised patients including NAFLD with no fibrosis, NAFLD with mild-moderate fibrosis (stage 1-2), NAFLD with advanced fibrosis (stage 3-4), and age-sex matched non-NAFLD controls.

RESULTS

Sixty subjects were included in the study. The mean age was 58.9 years, 68% were male and 58% were Caucasian. In univariate analysis, serum PTX-2 levels significantly decreased from non-NAFLD controls to mild NAFLD with no fibrosis, to NAFLD with mild-moderate fibrosis and were lowest in patients with NAFLD and advanced fibrosis, in a dose-dependent manner (P < 0.0001). In multivariable-adjusted analyses controlling for age, sex, albumin, and CRP, the results remained consistent and statistically significant. Serum PTX-2 level had an AUROC of 0.84 (95% CI: 0.71-0.97) for the diagnosis of NAFLD, and an AUROC of 0.77 (95% CI: 0.65-0.90) for the diagnosis of advanced fibrosis in NAFLD. Serum PTX-2 levels also decreased with increasing liver stiffness as estimated by magnetic resonance elastography (r = -0.31, P = 0.02).

CONCLUSIONS

PTX-2 levels are significantly lower in patients with NAFLD compared to non-NAFLD controls, and decline further in patients with advanced fibrosis. PTX-2 may therefore be both a biomarker of disease and a potential target for anti-fibrotic therapy with the recombinant pentraxin-2.

The impact of hepatitis C and biliary complications on patient and graft survival following liver transplantation

Recurrent hepatitis C (HCV) and biliary complications (BC) are major causes of post liver transplant morbidity and mortality. The impact of these complications may be additive or synergistic. We performed a retrospective cohort study to analyze the effects of HCV and BC on all patients transplanted at two institutions over 6 years. BC was defined by imaging findings in the setting of abnormal liver function tests that required intervention. The primary outcomes were graft and patient survival over a mean 3.4 years. 709 patients (619 deceased, 90 living donor) were included, 337 with HCV and 372 without. BC was diagnosed more frequently in patients with HCV, 26% versus 18% (p = 0.008). One-year and overall patient and graft survival were significantly lower in patients with HCV, but BC impacted only 1-year graft survival. The combination of BC and HCV had no additional impact on survival or fibrosis rates on 1-year protocol biopsies. Multivariate analysis revealed HCV (HR 2.1) and HCC (HR 1.9) to be independent predictors of mortality. Since BC are diagnosed more frequently in HCV patients and only affect early graft loss, it is likely that recurrent HCV rather than BC accounts for the majority of adverse graft outcomes.