The Cost of Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision in South Africa

Cost comparison of a rapid results initiative against standard clinic-based model to scale-up voluntary medical male circumcision in Kenya

Voluntary male medical circumcision (VMMC) reduces HIV acquisition by up to 60%. Kenya has successfully scaled up VMMC to an estimated 91% of eligible men and boys in certain regions in combination due to VMMC and cultural circumcisions. VMMC as a program is implemented regionally in traditionally non-circumcising counties where the prevalence is still below 91%, ranging from 56.4% to 66.7%. Given that funding toward VMMC is expected to decline in the coming years, it is important to identify what models of service delivery are most appropriate and efficient to sustainably meet the VMMC needs of new cohorts' eligible men. To this end, we compared the costs of facility-based VMMC and one within a rapid results initiative (RRI), a public health service scheduled during school holidays to perform many procedures over a short period. We employed activity-based micro-costing to estimate the costs, from the implementer perspective, of facility-based VMMC and RRI-based VMMC conducted between October 2017 and September 2018 at 41 sites in Kisumu County, Kenya supported by the Family AIDS care & Education Services (FACES). We conducted site visits and reviewed financial ledger and programmatic data to identify and quantify resources consumed and the number of VMMC procedures performed during routine care and RRIs. Ledger data were used to estimate fixed costs, recurring costs, and cost per circumcision (CPC) in United States dollar (USD). A sensitivity analysis was done to estimate CPC where we allocated 6 months of the ledger to facility-based and 6 months to RRI. Overall, FACES spent $3,092,891 toward VMMC services and performed 42,139 procedures during the funding year. This included $2,644,910 in stable programmatic costs, $139,786 procedure costs, and $308,195 for RRI-specific activities. Over the year, 49% (n = 20,625) of procedures were performed as part of routine care and 51% (n = 21,514) were performed during the RRIs. Procedures conducted during facility-based cost $99.35 per circumcision, those conducted during the RRIs cost $48.51 per circumcision, and according to our sensitivity analysis, CPC for facility-based ranges from $99.35 to $287.24 and for RRI costs ranged from $29.81 to $48.51. The cost of VMMC during the RRI was substantially lower than unit costs reported in previous costing studies. We conclude that circumcision campaigns, such as the RRI, offer an efficient and sustainable approach to VMMC.

Understanding the Evolving Role of Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision as a Public Health Strategy in Eastern and Southern Africa: Opportunities and Challenges

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Voluntary male medical circumcision (VMMC) has been a cornerstone of HIV prevention in Eastern and Southern Africa (ESA) and is credited in part for declines in HIV incidence seen in recent years. However, these HIV incidence declines change VMMC cost-effectiveness and how it varies across populations.

RECENT FINDINGS

Mathematical models project continued cost-effectiveness of VMMC in much of ESA despite HIV incidence declines. A key data gap is how demand generation cost differs across age groups and over time as VMMC coverage increases. Additionally, VMMC models usually neglect non-HIV effects of VMMC, such as prevention of other sexually transmitted infections and medical adverse events. While small compared to HIV effects in the short term, these could become important as HIV incidence declines. Evidence to date supports prioritizing VMMC in ESA despite falling HIV incidence. Updated modeling methodologies will become necessary if HIV incidence reaches low levels.

Cost and cost-effectiveness of a universal HIV testing and treatment intervention in Zambia and South Africa: evidence and projections from the HPTN 071 (PopART) trial

BACKGROUND

The HPTN 071 (PopART) trial showed that a combination HIV prevention package including universal HIV testing and treatment (UTT) reduced population-level incidence of HIV compared with standard care. However, evidence is scarce on the costs and cost-effectiveness of such an intervention.

METHODS

Using an individual-based model, we simulated the PopART intervention and standard care with antiretroviral therapy (ART) provided according to national guidelines for the 21 trial communities in Zambia and South Africa (for all individuals aged >14 years), with model parameters and primary cost data collected during the PopART trial and from published sources. Two intervention scenarios were modelled: annual rounds of PopART from 2014 to 2030 (PopART 2014-30; as the UNAIDS Fast-Track target year) and three rounds of PopART throughout the trial intervention period (PopART 2014-17). For each country, we calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) as the cost per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) and cost per HIV infection averted. Cost-effectiveness acceptability curves were used to indicate the probability of PopART being cost-effective compared with standard care at different thresholds of cost per DALY averted. We also assessed budget impact by projecting undiscounted costs of the intervention compared with standard care up to 2030.

FINDINGS

During 2014-17, the mean cost per person per year of delivering home-based HIV counselling and testing, linkage to care, promotion of ART adherence, and voluntary medical male circumcision via community HIV care providers for the simulated population was US$6·53 (SD 0·29) in Zambia and US$7·93 (0·16) in South Africa. In the PopART 2014-30 scenario, median ICERs for PopART delivered annually until 2030 were $2111 (95% credible interval [CrI] 1827-2462) per HIV infection averted in Zambia and $3248 (2472-3963) per HIV infection averted in South Africa; and $593 (95% CrI 526-674) per DALY averted in Zambia and $645 (538-757) per DALY averted in South Africa. In the PopART 2014-17 scenario, PopART averted one infection at a cost of $1318 (1098-1591) in Zambia and $2236 (1601-2916) in South Africa, and averted one DALY at $258 (225-298) in Zambia and $326 (266-391) in South Africa, when outcomes were projected until 2030. The intervention had almost 100% probability of being cost-effective at thresholds greater than $700 per DALY averted in Zambia, and greater than $800 per DALY averted in South Africa, in the PopART 2014-30 scenario. Incremental programme costs for annual rounds until 2030 were $46·12 million (for a mean of 341 323 people) in Zambia and $30·24 million (for a mean of 165 852 people) in South Africa.

INTERPRETATION

Combination prevention with universal home-based testing can be delivered at low annual cost per person but accumulates to a considerable amount when scaled for a growing population. Combination prevention including UTT is cost-effective at thresholds greater than $800 per DALY averted and can be an efficient strategy to reduce HIV incidence in high-prevalence settings.

FUNDING

US National Institutes of Health, President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, International Initiative for Impact Evaluation, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Service delivery interventions to increase uptake of voluntary medical male circumcision for HIV prevention: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) remains an essential component of combination HIV prevention services, particularly in priority countries in sub-Saharan Africa. As VMMC programs seek to maximize impact and efficiency, and to support World Health Organization guidance, specific uptake-enhancing strategies are critical to identify.

METHODS

We systematically reviewed the literature to evaluate the impact of service delivery interventions (e.g., facility layout, service co-location, mobile outreach) on VMMC uptake among adolescent and adult men. For the main effectiveness review, we searched for publications or conference abstracts that measured VMMC uptake or uptake of HIV testing or risk reduction counselling within VMMC services. We synthesized data by coding categories and outcomes. We also reviewed studies assessing acceptability, values/preferences, costs, and feasibility.

RESULTS

Four randomized controlled trials and five observational studies were included in the effectiveness review. Studies took place in South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. They assessed a range of service delivery innovations, including community-, school-, and facility-based interventions. Overall, interventions increased VMMC uptake; some successfully improved uptake among age-specific subpopulations, but urban-rural stratification showed no clear trends. Interventions that increased adult men's uptake included mobile services (compared to static facilities), home-based testing with active referral follow-up, and facility-based HIV testing with enhanced comprehensive sexual education. Six acceptability studies suggested interventions were generally perceived to help men choose to get circumcised. Eleven cost studies suggested interventions create economies-of-scale and efficiencies. Three studies suggested such interventions were feasible, improving facility preparedness, service quality and quantity, and efficiencies.

CONCLUSIONS

Innovative changes in male-centered VMMC services can improve adult men's and adolescent boys' VMMC uptake. Limited evidence on interventions that enhance access and acceptability show promising results, but evidence gaps persist due to inconsistent intervention definition and delivery, due in part to contextual relevance and limited age disaggregation.

Male circumcision and global HIV/AIDS epidemic challenges

Background

Given the devastating mortality and morbidity associated with HIV/AIDS, many potential prevention measures against HIV infection continue to be explored. Most prevention methods are in the realm of sexual behavior change. However, of all aspects of human behavior, it is sexual behavior that is least amenable to change. Newer and simpler interventions are therefore required. Male circumcision, the surgical removal of some or all of the foreskin (or prepuce) from the penis, is one of the ways being promoted as a preventive measure. This paper reviews the scientific basis and evidence for the efficacy of male circumcision within the context of the global challenges involved.

Main body

We reviewed articles with emphasis on male circumcision and HIV/AIDS transmission. Published abstracts of presentations at international scientific meetings were also reviewed.

Conclusions

Current epidemiological evidence supports the promotion of male circumcision for HIV prevention, especially in populations with high HIV prevalence and low circumcision rates. Three notable randomized control trials strengthen the case for applied research studies to demonstrate that safe male circumcision is protective at the population level, particularly as ideal and well-resourced conditions of a randomized trial are often not replicated in other service delivery settings. Ethically and culturally responsive strategies in promoting circumcision in a culturally heterogenous world need to be developed, too. Male circumcision should also be viewed as a complementary measure along with other proven approaches to turn the HIV/AIDS epidemic around.

Cost and Cost-Effectiveness of a Demand Creation Intervention to Increase Uptake of Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision in Tanzania: Spending More to Spend Less

Supplemental Digital Content is Available in the Text.

Background:

Although voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) reduces the risk of HIV acquisition, demand for services is lower among men in most at-risk age groups (ages 20–34 years). A randomized controlled trial was conducted to assess the effectiveness of locally-tailored demand creation activities (including mass media, community mobilization, and targeted service delivery) in increasing uptake of campaign-delivered VMMC among men aged 20–34 years. We conducted an economic evaluation to understand the intervention's cost and cost-effectiveness.

Setting:

Tanzania (Njombe and Tabora regions).

Methods:

Cost data were collected on surgery, demand creation activities, and monitoring and supervision related to VMMC implementation across clusters in both trial arms, as well as start-up activities for the intervention arms. The Decision Makers' Program Planning Tool was used to estimate the number of HIV infections averted and related cost savings, given the total VMMCs per cluster. Disability-adjusted life years were calculated and used to estimate incremental cost-effectiveness ratios.

Results:

Client load was higher in the intervention arms than in the control arms: 4394 vs. 2901 in Tabora and 1797 vs. 1025 in Njombe, respectively. Despite additional costs of tailored demand creation, demand increased more than proportionally: mean costs per VMMC in the intervention arms were $62 in Tabora and $130 in Njombe, and in the control arms $70 and $191, respectively. More infections were averted in the intervention arm than in the control arm in Tabora (123 vs. 67, respectively) and in Njombe (164 vs. 102, respectively). The intervention dominated the control because it was both less costly and more effective. Cost savings were observed in both regions stemming from the antiretroviral treatment costs averted as a result of the VMMCs performed.

Conclusions:

Spending more to address local preferences as a way to increase uptake of VMMC can be cost-saving.

Voluntary medical male circumcision service delivery in South Africa: The economic costs and potential opportunity for private sector involvement

BACKGROUND

In 2010, the South African Government initiated a voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) program as a part of the country's HIV prevention strategy based on compelling evidence that VMMC reduces men's risk of becoming HIV infected by approximately 60%. A previous VMMC costing study at Government and PEPFAR-supported facilities noted that the lack of sufficient data from the private sector represented a gap in knowledge concerning the overall cost of scaling up VMMC services. This study, conducted in mid-2016, focused on surgical circumcision and aims to address this limitation.

METHODS

VMMC service delivery cost data were collected at 13 private facilities in three provinces in South Africa: Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal, and Mpumalanga. Unit costs were calculated using a bottom-up approach by cost components, and then disaggregated by facility type and urbanization level. VMMC demand creation, and higher-level management and program support costs were not collected. The unit cost of VMMC service delivery at private facilities in South Africa was calculated as a weighted average of the unit costs at the 13 facilities.

KEY FINDINGS

At the average annual exchange rate of R10.83 = $1, the unit cost including training and cost of continuous quality improvement (CQI) to provide VMMC at private facilities was $137. The largest cost components were consumables (40%) and direct labor (35%). Eleven out of the 13 surveyed private sector facilities were fixed sites (with a unit cost of $142), while one was a fixed site with outreach services (with a unit cost of $156), and the last one provided services at a combination of fixed, outreach and mobile sites (with a unit cost per circumcision performed of $123). The unit cost was not substantially different based on the level of urbanization: $141, $129, and $143 at urban, peri-urban, and rural facilities, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The private sector VMMC unit cost ($137) did not differ substantially from that at government and PEPFAR-supported facilities ($132 based on results from a similar study conducted in 2014 in South Africa at 33 sites across eight of the countries nine provinces). The two largest cost drivers, consumables and direct labor, were comparable across the two studies (75% in private facilities and 67% in public/PEPFAR-supported facilities). Results from this study provide VMMC unit cost data that had been missing and makes an important contribution to a better understanding of the costs of VMMC service delivery, enabling VMMC programs to make informed decisions regarding funding levels and scale-up strategies for VMMC in South Africa.

Influence of supply-side factors on voluntary medical male circumcision costs in Kenya, Rwanda, South Africa, and Zambia

BACKGROUND

In this study, we described facility-level voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) unit cost, examined unit cost variation across facilities, and investigated key facility characteristics associated with unit cost variation.

METHODS

We used data from 107 facilities in Kenya, Rwanda, South Africa, and Zambia covering 2011 or 2012. We used micro-costing to estimate economic costs from the service provider's perspective. Average annual costs per client were estimated in 2013 United States dollars (US$). Econometric analysis was used to explore the relationship between VMMC total and unit cost and facility characteristics.

RESULTS

Average VMMC unit cost ranged from US$66 (SD US$79) in Kenya to US$160 (SD US$144) in South Africa. Total cost function estimates were consistent with economies of scale and scope. We found a negative association between the number of VMMC clients and VMMC unit cost with a 3% decrease in unit cost for every 10% increase in number of clients and we found a negative association between the provision of other HIV services and VMMC unit cost. Also, VMMC unit cost was lower in primary health care facilities than in hospitals, and lower in facilities implementing task shifting.

CONCLUSIONS

Substantial efficiency gains could be made in VMMC service delivery in all countries. Options to increase efficiency of VMMC programs in the short term include focusing service provision in high yield sites when demand is high, focusing on task shifting, and taking advantage of efficiencies created by integrating HIV services. In the longer term, reductions in VMMC unit cost are likely by increasing the volume of clients at facilities by implementing effective demand generation activities.

Male circumcision for HIV prevention: Awareness, risk compensation, and risk perceptions among South African women

Medical male circumcision (MMC) is a proven method of HIV risk reduction for men in southern Africa. MMC promotion campaigns and scale-up programmes are widely implemented throughout the Republic of South Africa. However, the impact of promoting MMC on women's awareness, beliefs, and behaviours has been understudied. We conducted a self-administered anonymous survey of 279 women receiving health services in an impoverished township located in Cape Town, South Africa. Results showed that two in three women were unaware that male circumcision partially protects men from contracting HIV. Women who were aware of MMC for HIV prevention also endorsed beliefs that male circumcision reduces the need for men to worry about HIV and reduces the need for men to use condoms. Male circumcision awareness was also related to reduced perceptions of HIV risk among women. Multivariable models showed that women's MMC awareness, circumcision risk compensation beliefs, and risk perceptions were associated with decreased condom use and higher HIV risk index scores defined as number of condomless vaginal intercourse X number of sex partners. These results suggest a need for MMC education efforts tailored for women living in communities with high-HIV prevalence where men are targeted for MMC.

The quality of voluntary medical male circumcision done by mid-level workers in Tshwane District, South Africa: A retrospective analysis

Background

Voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) reduces the acquisition of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in heterosexual men by up to 60%. One HIV infection is averted for every 5 to 15 VMMCs. To conduct VMMCs in large populations, large numbers of trained healthcare professionals are needed. Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa have a high burden of HIV and a shortage of healthcare professionals, creating a healthcare conundrum. To bridge this gap, South Africa launched a new cadre of mid-level medical worker called Clinical Associates (CA). We assessed the ability of CAs to perform circumcisions of adequate quality and their subsequent usefulness to meet the demands of VMMCs in a population with a high HIV burden.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective analysis, reviewing patient files (n = 4850) of surgical VMMCs conducted over a 16-month period. Patient files were sourced from clinics and hospitals that provided free VMMCs in Tshwane district in South Africa.

Findings

Clinical associates performed 88.66% of the circumcisions and doctors performed the remaining 11.34% (p < 0.001). The number of adverse events did not differ between the two groups. Data on intra-operative adverse events were available for 4 738 patients. Of these, 341 (7.2%) experienced intra-operative adverse events. For the whole sample, 44 (8.1%, n = 543) adverse events occurred during circumcisions done by doctors and 297 (7.1%, n = 4195) occurred during circumcisions done by CAs (p = 0.385). Clinical associates performed circumcisions in shorter times (duration: 14.63 minutes) compared to doctors (duration: 15.25 minutes, t = -7.46; p < 0.001). Recorded pain, bleeding, swelling, infection and wound destruction did not differ between clients circumcised by CAs and doctors. This study is limited by the use of data from a single district.

Conclusions

Clinical associates contribute to the demands for high numbers of VMMCs in Tshwane district, South Africa. Clinical associates perform VMMCs at a clinical standard that is comparable to circumcisions performed by doctors.

The cost of demand creation activities and voluntary medical male circumcision targeting school-going adolescents in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

Background

Voluntary medical male circumcision is an integral part of the South African government’s response to the HIV and AIDS epidemic. However, there remains a limited body of economic analysis on the cost of VMMC programming, and the demand creation activities used to mobilize males, especially among adolescent boys in school. This study addresses this gap by presenting the costs of a VMMC program which adopted two demand creation strategies targeting school-going males in South Africa.

Methods

Cost data was collected from a VMMC program in the KwaZulu-Natal province of South Africa. A retrospective, micro-costing ingredient approach was applied to identify, measure and value resources of two demand creation strategies targeting young males.

Results

The program circumcised 4987 young males between May 2011 and February 2013, at a cost of $127.68 per circumcision. Demand creation activities accounted for 32% of the total cost, HCT contributing 10% with the medical circumcision procedure accounting for 58% of the total cost. Using the first demand creation strategy, 2168 circumcisions were performed at a cost of $149.57 per circumcision. Following this first strategy, a second demand creation strategy was adopted which saw the cost fall to $110.85 per circumcision. More young males were recruited following the second strategy with clinic services more efficiently utilized. Whilst the cost per circumcision of demand activities rose slightly between the first ($39.94) and second ($41.65) strategy, there was a substantial reduction in the cost of the circumcision procedure; $90.01 under the first strategy falling to $60.60 following the adoption of the second demand creation strategy.

Conclusion

Ensuring the optimal use of clinic facilities was the primary driver in reducing the cost per circumcision. This VMMC program has illustrated the value of evaluating progress and instituting changes to attain better cost efficiencies. This adjustment resulted in a substantial reduction in the cost per circumcision.

Estimating Client Out-of-Pocket Costs for Accessing Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision in South Africa

In 2010, South Africa launched a countrywide effort to scale up its voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) program on the basis of compelling evidence that circumcision reduces men's risk of acquiring HIV through heterosexual intercourse. Even though VMMC is free there, clients can incur indirect out-of-pocket costs (for example transportation cost or foregone income). Because these costs can be barriers to increasing the uptake of VMMC services, we assessed them from a client perspective, to inform VMMC demand creation policies. Costs (calculated using a bottom-up approach) and demographic data were systematically collected through 190 interviews conducted in 2015 with VMMC clients or (for minors) their caregivers at 25 VMMC facilities supported by the government and the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief in eight of South Africa's nine provinces. The average age of VMMC clients was 22 years and nearly 92% were under 35 years of age. The largest reported out-of-pocket expenditure was transportation, at an average of US$9.20 (R 100). Only eight clients (4%) reported lost days of work. Indirect expenditures were childcare costs (one client) and miscellaneous items such as food or medicine (20 clients). Given competing household expense priorities, spending US$9.20 (R100) per person on transportation to access VMMC services could be a significant burden on clients and households, and a barrier to South Africa's efforts to create demand for VMMC. Thus, we recommend a more focused analysis of clients' transportation costs to access VMMC services.

Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision for HIV Prevention: New Mathematical Models for Strategic Demand Creation Prioritizing Subpopulations by Age and Geography

Over 11 million voluntary medical male circumcisions (VMMC) have been performed of the projected 20.3 million needed to reach 80% adult male circumcision prevalence in priority sub-Saharan African countries. Striking numbers of adolescent males, outside the 15-49-year-old age target, have been accessing VMMC services. What are the implications of overall progress in scale-up to date? Can mathematical modeling provide further insights on how to efficiently reach the male circumcision coverage levels needed to create and sustain further reductions in HIV incidence to make AIDS no longer a public health threat by 2030? Considering ease of implementation and cultural acceptability, decision makers may also value the estimates that mathematical models can generate of immediacy of impact, cost-effectiveness, and magnitude of impact resulting from different policy choices. This supplement presents the results of mathematical modeling using the Decision Makers' Program Planning Tool Version 2.0 (DMPPT 2.0), the Actuarial Society of South Africa (ASSA2008) model, and the age structured mathematical (ASM) model. These models are helping countries examine the potential effects on program impact and cost-effectiveness of prioritizing specific subpopulations for VMMC services, for example, by client age, HIV-positive status, risk group, and geographical location. The modeling also examines long-term sustainability strategies, such as adolescent and/or early infant male circumcision, to preserve VMMC coverage gains achieved during rapid scale-up. The 2016-2021 UNAIDS strategy target for VMMC is an additional 27 million VMMC in high HIV-prevalence settings by 2020, as part of access to integrated sexual and reproductive health services for men. To achieve further scale-up, a combination of evidence, analysis, and impact estimates can usefully guide strategic planning and funding of VMMC services and related demand-creation strategies in priority countries. Mid-course corrections now can improve cost-effectiveness and scale to achieve the impact needed to help turn the HIV pandemic on its head within 15 years.

Assessing Progress, Impact, and Next Steps in Rolling Out Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision for HIV Prevention in 14 Priority Countries in Eastern and Southern Africa through 2014

Background

In 2007, the World Health Organization and the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) identified 14 priority countries across eastern and southern Africa for scaling up voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) services. Several years into this effort, we reflect on progress.

Methods

Using the Decision Makers’ Program Planning Tool (DMPPT) 2.1, we assessed age-specific impact, cost-effectiveness, and coverage attributable to circumcisions performed through 2014. We also compared impact of actual progress to that of achieving 80% coverage among men ages 15–49 in 12 VMMC priority countries and Nyanza Province, Kenya. We populated the models with age-disaggregated VMMC service statistics and with population, mortality, and HIV incidence and prevalence projections exported from country-specific Spectrum/Goals files. We assumed each country achieved UNAIDS’ 90-90-90 treatment targets.

Results

More than 9 million VMMCs were conducted through 2014: 43% of the estimated 20.9 million VMMCs required to reach 80% coverage by the end of 2015. The model assumed each country reaches the UNAIDS targets, and projected that VMMCs conducted through 2014 will avert 240,000 infections by the end of 2025, compared to 1.1 million if each country had reached 80% coverage by the end of 2015. The median estimated cost per HIV infection averted was $4,400. Nyanza Province in Kenya, the 11 priority regions in Tanzania, and Uganda have reached or are approaching MC coverage targets among males ages 15–24, while coverage in other age groups is lower. Across all countries modeled, more than half of the projected HIV infections averted were attributable to circumcising 10- to 19-year-olds.

Conclusions

The priority countries have made considerable progress in VMMC scale-up, and VMMC remains a cost-effective strategy for epidemic impact, even assuming near-universal HIV diagnosis, treatment coverage, and viral suppression. Examining circumcision coverage by five-year age groups will inform countries’ decisions about next steps.

Cost and Impact of Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision in South Africa: Focusing the Program on Specific Age Groups and Provinces

BACKGROUND

In 2012, South Africa set a goal of circumcising 4.3 million men ages 15-49 by 2016. By the end of March 2014, 1.9 million men had received voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC). In an effort to accelerate progress, South Africa undertook a modeling exercise to determine whether circumcising specific client age groups or geographic locations would be particularly impactful or cost-effective. Results will inform South Africa's efforts to develop a national strategy and operational plan for VMMC.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

The study team populated the Decision Makers' Program Planning Tool, Version 2.0 (DMPPT 2.0) with HIV incidence projections from the Spectrum/AIDS Impact Module (AIM), as well as national and provincial population and HIV prevalence estimates. We derived baseline circumcision rates from the 2012 South African National HIV Prevalence, Incidence and Behaviour Survey. The model showed that circumcising men ages 20-34 offers the most immediate impact on HIV incidence and requires the fewest circumcisions per HIV infection averted. The greatest impact over a 15-year period is achieved by circumcising men ages 15-24. When the model assumes a unit cost increase with client age, men ages 15-29 emerge as the most cost-effective group. When we assume a constant cost for all ages, the most cost-effective age range is 15-34 years. Geographically, the program is cost saving in all provinces; differences in the VMMC program's cost-effectiveness across provinces were obscured by uncertainty in HIV incidence projections.

CONCLUSION

The VMMC program's impact and cost-effectiveness vary by age-targeting strategy. A strategy focusing on men ages 15-34 will maximize program benefits. However, because clients older than 25 access VMMC services at low rates, South Africa could consider promoting demand among men ages 25-34, without denying services to those in other age groups. Uncertainty in the provincial estimates makes them insufficient to support geographic targeting.