A Deterministic Model to Quantify Risk and Guide Mitigation Strategies to Reduce Bluetongue Virus Transmission in California Dairy Cattle

Parameterisation of a bluetongue virus mathematical model using a systematic literature review

Bluetongue virus (BT) is a vector-borne virus that causes a disease, called bluetongue, which results in significant economic loss and morbidity in sheep, cattle, goats and wild ungulates across all continents of the world except Antarctica. Despite the geographical breadth of its impact, most BT epidemiological models are informed by parameters derived from the 2006-2009 BTV-8 European outbreak. The aim of this study was to develop a highly adaptable model for BT which could be used elsewhere in the world, as well as to identify the parameters which most influence outbreak dynamics, so that policy makers can be properly informed with the most current information to aid in disease planning. To provide a framework for future outbreak modelling and an updated parameterisation that reflects natural variation in infections, a newly developed and parameterised two-host, two-vector species ordinary differential equation model was formulated and analysed. The model was designed to be adaptable to be implemented in any region of the world and able to model both epidemic and endemic scenarios. It was parameterised using a systematic literature review of host-to-vector and vector-to-host transmission rates, host latent periods, host infectious periods, and vaccine protection factors. The model was demonstrated using the updated parameters, with South Africa as a setting based on the Western Cape's known cattle and sheep populations, local environmental parameters, and Culicoides spp. presence data. The sensitivity analysis identified that the duration of the infectious period for sheep and cows had the greatest impact on the outbreak length and number of animals infected at the peak of the outbreak. Transmission rates from cows and sheep to C. imicola midges greatly influenced the day on which the peak of the outbreak occurred, along with the duration of incubation period, and infectious period for cows. Finally, the protection factor of the vaccine had the greatest influence on the total number of animals infected. This knowledge could aid in the development of control measures. Due to gradual climate and anthropological change resulting in alterations in vector habitat suitability, BT outbreaks are likely to continue to increase in range and frequency. Therefore, this research provides an updated BT modelling framework for future outbreaks around the world to explore transmission, outbreak dynamics and control measures.

Identifying Spanish Areas at More Risk of Monthly BTV Transmission with a Basic Reproduction Number Approach

Bluetongue virus (BTV) causes a disease that is endemic in Spain and its two major biological vector species, C. imicola and the Obsoletus complex species, differ greatly in their ecology and distribution. Understanding the seasonality of BTV transmission in risk areas is key to improving surveillance and control programs, as well as to better understand the pathogen transmission networks between wildlife and livestock. Here, monthly risk transmission maps were generated using risk categories based on well-known BTV R0 equations and predicted abundances of the two most relevant vectors in Spain. Previously, Culicoides spp. predicted abundances in mainland Spain and the Balearic Islands were obtained using remote sensing data and random forest machine learning algorithm. Risk transmission maps were externally assessed with the estimated date of infection of BTV-1 and BTV-4 historical outbreaks. Our results highlight the differences in risk transmission during April-October, June-August being the period with higher R0 values. Likewise, a natural barrier has been identified between northern and central-southern areas at risk that may hamper BTV spread between them. Our results can be relevant to implement risk-based interventions for the prevention, control and surveillance of BTV and other diseases shared between livestock and wildlife host populations.

Ecological Dynamics Impacting Bluetongue Virus Transmission in North America

Bluetongue virus (BTV) is an arbovirus transmitted to domestic and wild ruminants by certain species of Culicoides midges. The disease resulting from infection with BTV is economically important and can influence international trade and movement of livestock, the economics of livestock production, and animal welfare. Recent changes in the epidemiology of Culicoides-transmitted viruses, notably the emergence of exotic BTV genotypes in Europe, have demonstrated the devastating economic consequences of BTV epizootics and the complex nature of transmission across host-vector landscapes. Incursions of novel BTV serotypes into historically enzootic countries or regions, including the southeastern United States (US), Israel, Australia, and South America, have also occurred, suggesting diverse pathways for the transmission of these viruses. The abundance of BTV strains and multiple reassortant viruses circulating in Europe and the US in recent years demonstrates considerable genetic diversity of BTV strains and implies a history of reassortment events within the respective regions. While a great deal of emphasis is rightly placed on understanding the epidemiology and emergence of BTV beyond its natural ecosystem, the ecological contexts in which BTV maintains an enzootic cycle may also be of great significance. This review focuses on describing our current knowledge of ecological factors driving BTV transmission in North America. Information presented in this review can help inform future studies that may elucidate factors that are relevant to longstanding and emerging challenges associated with prevention of this disease.

PCR-based reverse genetics strategy for bluetongue virus recovery

Background

Bluetongue virus (BTV), an emerging insect vector mediated pathogen affecting both wild ruminants and livestock, has a genome consisting of 10 linear double-stranded RNA genome segments. BTV has a severe economic impact on agriculture in many parts of the world. Current reverse genetics (RG) strategy to rescue BTV mainly rely on in vitro synthesis of RNA transcripts from cloned complimentary DNA (cDNA) corresponding to viral genome segments with the aid of helper plasmids. RNA synthesis is a laborious job which is further complicated with a need for expensive reagents and a meticulous operational procedure. Additionally, the target genes must be cloned into a specific vector to prepare templates for RNA transcription.

Result

In this study, we have developed a PCR based BTV RG system with easy two-step transfection. Viable viruses were recovered following a first transfection with the seven helper plasmids and a second transfection with the 10 PCR products on the BSR cells. Further, recovered viruses were characterized with indirect immunofluorescence assays (IFA) and gene sequencing. And the proliferation properties of these viruses were also compared with wild type BTV. Interestingly, we have identified that viruses containing the segment 2 of the genome from reassortant BTV, grew slightly slower than the others.

Conclusion

In this study, a convenient PCR based RG platform for BTV is established, and this strategy could be an effective alternative to the original available BTV rescue methods. Furthermore, this RG strategy is likely applicable for other Orbiviruses.

Simulation of the Transmission by Vectors of Bluetongue Disease and Analysis of the Control Strategy

Bluetongue disease is an infectious non-contagious disease of domestic and wild ruminants, transmitted by hematophagous insects of the genus Culicoides. In endemic areas the disease has a seasonal character, occurs usually in summer when the population of vectors is at its peak. Culicoides are active at temperatures in the range from 13oto 35oC. The replication of the virus stops when the environmental temperature is below 13oC. It has been reported that the temperature and humidity of the environment affect to a great extent the biology of the vector and the survival of the virus in the reservoirs. During the summer, the number of infected cattle and sheep is directly dependent on the density of the population of the vector, the length of vectors’ life-span, the temperature of the environment and by precipitation, the affi nity of the vector to different hosts, and the ability of the vector to locate the host. Bluetongue has been spreading worldwide due to climatic changes and increasing average daily temperatures. The seasonal occurrences of the disease and the climate change have conditioned the need for adopting new strategies. The stochastic SEIRD mathematical model has been developed in order to simulate the transmission of the Bluetongue virus through the susceptible ruminant population on the territory of the Republic of Serbia, as well as to investigate the effect of climatic factors on the vector population and the magnitude of a possible epizootia. Besides the effects of climatic factors, we have analyzed a number of different approaches in the control of the disease based upon the vaccination of ruminants and control of vectors.