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Abdolmaleki S, Ganjalikhani hakemi M, Ganjalikhany MR. An in silico investigation on the binding site preference of PD-1 and PD-L1 for designing antibodies for targeted cancer therapy. PLoS One 2024; 19:e0304270. [PMID: 39052609 PMCID: PMC11271968 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0304270] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/31/2024] [Accepted: 05/08/2024] [Indexed: 07/27/2024] Open
Abstract
Cancer control and treatment remain a significant challenge in cancer therapy and recently immune checkpoints has considered as a novel treatment strategy to develop anti-cancer drugs. Many cancer types use the immune checkpoints and its ligand, PD-1/PD-L1 pathway, to evade detection and destruction by the immune system, which is associated with altered effector function of PD-1 and PD-L1 overexpression on cancer cells to deactivate T cells. In recent years, mAbs have been employed to block immune checkpoints, therefore normalization of the anti-tumor response has enabled the scientists to develop novel biopharmaceuticals. In vivo affinity maturation of antibodies in targeted therapy has sometimes failed, and current experimental methods cannot accommodate the accurate structural details of protein-protein interactions. Therefore, determining favorable binding sites on the protein surface for modulator design of these interactions is a major challenge. In this study, we used the in silico methods to identify favorable binding sites on the PD-1 and PD-L1 and to optimize mAb variants on a large scale. At first, all the binding areas on PD-1 and PD-L1 have been identified. Then, using the RosettaDesign protocol, thousands of antibodies have been generated for 11 different regions on PD-1 and PD-L1 and then the designs with higher stability, affinity, and shape complementarity were selected. Next, molecular dynamics simulations and MM-PBSA analysis were employed to understand the dynamic, structural features of the complexes and measure the binding affinity of the final designs. Our results suggest that binding sites 1, 3 and 6 on PD-1 and binding sites 9 and 11 on PD-L1 can be regarded as the most appropriate sites for the inhibition of PD-1-PD-L1 interaction by the designed antibodies. This study provides comprehensive information regarding the potential binding epitopes on PD-1 which could be considered as hotspots for designing potential biopharmaceuticals. We also showed that mutations in the CDRs regions will rearrange the interaction pattern between the designed antibodies and targets (PD-1 and PD-L1) with improved affinity to effectively inhibit protein-protein interaction and block the immune checkpoint.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sarah Abdolmaleki
- Department of Cell and Molecular Biology & Microbiology, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran
| | - Mazdak Ganjalikhani hakemi
- Regenerative and Restorative Medicine Research Center (REMER), Research Institute for Health Sciences and Technologies (SABITA), Istanbul Medipol University, Istanbul, Turkey
- Department of Immunology, Faculty of Medicine, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran
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Chen L, Yu K, Ma A, Zhu W, Wang H, Tang X, Tang Y, Li Y, Li J. Enhanced Thermostability of Nattokinase by Computation-Based Rational Redesign of Flexible Regions. JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL AND FOOD CHEMISTRY 2024; 72:14241-14254. [PMID: 38864682 DOI: 10.1021/acs.jafc.4c02335] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/13/2024]
Abstract
Nattokinase is a nutrient in healthy food natto that has the function of preventing and treating blood thrombus. However, its low thermostability and fibrinolytic activity limit its application in food and pharmaceuticals. In this study, we used bioinformatics analysis to identify two loops (loop10 and loop12) in the flexible region of nattokinase rAprY. Using this basis, we screened the G131S-S161T variant, which showed a 2.38-fold increase in half-life at 55 °C, and the M3 variant, which showed a 2.01-fold increase in activity, by using a thermostability prediction algorithm. Bioinformatics analysis revealed that the enhanced thermostability of the G131S-S161T variant was due to the increased rigidity and structural shrinkage of the overall structure. Additionally, the increased rigidity of the local region surrounding the active center and its mutated sites helps maintain its normal conformation in high-temperature environments. The increased catalytic activity of the M3 variant may be due to its more efficient substrate binding mechanism. We investigated strategies to improve the thermostability and fibrinolytic activity of nattokinase, and the resulting variants show promise for industrial production and application.
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Affiliation(s)
- Liangqi Chen
- Institute of Materia Medica, College of Pharmacy, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830017, China
- Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Biological Resources and Genetic Engineering, College of Life Science and Technology, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830017, China
| | - Kongfang Yu
- Institute of Materia Medica, College of Pharmacy, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830017, China
| | - Aixia Ma
- Institute of Materia Medica, College of Pharmacy, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830017, China
- Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Biological Resources and Genetic Engineering, College of Life Science and Technology, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830017, China
| | - Wenhui Zhu
- Institute of Materia Medica, College of Pharmacy, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830017, China
| | - Hong Wang
- Institute of Materia Medica, College of Pharmacy, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830017, China
| | - Xiyu Tang
- Institute of Materia Medica, College of Pharmacy, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830017, China
- Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Biological Resources and Genetic Engineering, College of Life Science and Technology, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830017, China
| | - Yaolei Tang
- Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Biological Resources and Genetic Engineering, College of Life Science and Technology, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830017, China
- The Third People's Hospital of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi 830000, China
| | - Yuan Li
- Institute of Materia Medica, College of Pharmacy, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830017, China
- Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Biological Resources and Genetic Engineering, College of Life Science and Technology, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830017, China
| | - Jinyao Li
- Institute of Materia Medica, College of Pharmacy, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830017, China
- Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Biological Resources and Genetic Engineering, College of Life Science and Technology, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830017, China
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Li Y, Tang X, Chen L, Ma A, Zhu W, Huang W, Li J. Improvement of the fibrinolytic activity, acid resistance and thermostability of nattokinase by surface charge engineering. Int J Biol Macromol 2023; 253:127373. [PMID: 37839602 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijbiomac.2023.127373] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/19/2023] [Revised: 09/12/2023] [Accepted: 10/09/2023] [Indexed: 10/17/2023]
Abstract
Nattokinase is a promising thrombolytic drug due to its powerful fibrinolytic effect and few side effects. However, the low fibrinolytic activity and stability of nattokinase have limited its industrial production and oral application. In this study, the basic and neutral amino acid residues on the surface of recombinant nattokinase AprY from Bacillus mojavensis LY-06 (rAprY) were mutated to acidic amino acid residues by surface charge engineering strategy, and two variants K12D and N109D with 92.6 % and 8.4 % increased fibrinolytic activity were obtained. The R45E variant with enhanced acid stability and thermostability was also screened, its acid stability at pH 4 and t1/2 at 55 °C were 3.7-fold and 1.8-fold higher than that of wild type rAprY, respectively. Bioinformatics analysis showed that the increased activities of K12D and N109D variants were related to the increased flexibility of the region around their active centers. The increased rigidity of 97-103 amino acid residues around the active center of R45E may be the reason for its enhanced stability and reduced catalytic activity. The multipoint mutation K12D-N109D (M2)'s catalytic activity did not increase cumulatively, but its pH stability did. The nattokinase variants generated in this study have potential for industrial production and application.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yuan Li
- Institute of Materia Medica, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830017, China
| | - Xiyu Tang
- Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Biological Resources and Genetic Engineering, College of Life Science and Technology, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830017, China
| | - Liangqi Chen
- Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Biological Resources and Genetic Engineering, College of Life Science and Technology, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830017, China
| | - Aixia Ma
- Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Biological Resources and Genetic Engineering, College of Life Science and Technology, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830017, China
| | - Wenhui Zhu
- Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Biological Resources and Genetic Engineering, College of Life Science and Technology, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830017, China
| | | | - Jinyao Li
- Institute of Materia Medica, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830017, China; Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Biological Resources and Genetic Engineering, College of Life Science and Technology, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830017, China.
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4
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Kim I, Dubrow A, Zuniga B, Zhao B, Sherer N, Bastiray A, Li P, Cho JH. Energy landscape reshaped by strain-specific mutations underlies epistasis in NS1 evolution of influenza A virus. Nat Commun 2022; 13:5775. [PMID: 36182933 PMCID: PMC9526705 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-33554-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/06/2022] [Accepted: 09/22/2022] [Indexed: 11/24/2022] Open
Abstract
Elucidating how individual mutations affect the protein energy landscape is crucial for understanding how proteins evolve. However, predicting mutational effects remains challenging because of epistasis—the nonadditive interactions between mutations. Here, we investigate the biophysical mechanism of strain-specific epistasis in the nonstructural protein 1 (NS1) of influenza A viruses (IAVs). We integrate structural, kinetic, thermodynamic, and conformational dynamics analyses of four NS1s of influenza strains that emerged between 1918 and 2004. Although functionally near-neutral, strain-specific NS1 mutations exhibit long-range epistatic interactions with residues at the p85β-binding interface. We reveal that strain-specific mutations reshaped the NS1 energy landscape during evolution. Using NMR spin dynamics, we find that the strain-specific mutations altered the conformational dynamics of the hidden network of tightly packed residues, underlying the evolution of long-range epistasis. This work shows how near-neutral mutations silently alter the biophysical energy landscapes, resulting in diverse background effects during molecular evolution. Influenza A virus (IAV) nonstructural protein 1 (NS1) is a multifunctional virulence factor that interacts with several host factors such as phosphatidylinositol-3-kinase (PI3K). NS1 binds specifically to the p85β regulatory subunit of PI3K and subsequently activates PI3K signaling. Here, Kim et al. show that functionally near-neutral, strain-specific NS1 mutations lead to variations in binding kinetics to p85β exhibit long-range epistatic interactions. Applying NMR they provide evidence that the structural dynamics of the NS1 hydrophobic core have evolved over time and contributed to epistasis.
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Affiliation(s)
- Iktae Kim
- Department of Biochemistry and Biophysics, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, 77843, USA
| | - Alyssa Dubrow
- Department of Biochemistry and Biophysics, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, 77843, USA
| | - Bryan Zuniga
- Department of Biochemistry and Biophysics, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, 77843, USA
| | - Baoyu Zhao
- Department of Biochemistry and Biophysics, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, 77843, USA
| | - Noah Sherer
- Department of Biochemistry and Biophysics, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, 77843, USA
| | - Abhishek Bastiray
- Department of Biochemistry and Biophysics, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, 77843, USA
| | - Pingwei Li
- Department of Biochemistry and Biophysics, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, 77843, USA
| | - Jae-Hyun Cho
- Department of Biochemistry and Biophysics, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, 77843, USA.
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5
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Learning the local landscape of protein structures with convolutional neural networks. J Biol Phys 2021; 47:435-454. [PMID: 34751854 DOI: 10.1007/s10867-021-09593-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/17/2021] [Accepted: 10/18/2021] [Indexed: 10/19/2022] Open
Abstract
One fundamental problem of protein biochemistry is to predict protein structure from amino acid sequence. The inverse problem, predicting either entire sequences or individual mutations that are consistent with a given protein structure, has received much less attention even though it has important applications in both protein engineering and evolutionary biology. Here, we ask whether 3D convolutional neural networks (3D CNNs) can learn the local fitness landscape of protein structure to reliably predict either the wild-type amino acid or the consensus in a multiple sequence alignment from the local structural context surrounding site of interest. We find that the network can predict wild type with good accuracy, and that network confidence is a reliable measure of whether a given prediction is likely going to be correct or not. Predictions of consensus are less accurate and are primarily driven by whether or not the consensus matches the wild type. Our work suggests that high-confidence mis-predictions of the wild type may identify sites that are primed for mutation and likely targets for protein engineering.
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Miton CM, Buda K, Tokuriki N. Epistasis and intramolecular networks in protein evolution. Curr Opin Struct Biol 2021; 69:160-168. [PMID: 34077895 DOI: 10.1016/j.sbi.2021.04.007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 39] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/18/2021] [Revised: 04/01/2021] [Accepted: 04/21/2021] [Indexed: 12/01/2022]
Abstract
Proteins are molecular machines composed of complex, highly connected amino acid networks. Their functional optimization requires the reorganization of these intramolecular networks by evolution. In this review, we discuss the mechanisms by which epistasis, that is, the dependence of the effect of a mutation on the genetic background, rewires intramolecular interactions to alter protein function. Deciphering the biophysical basis of epistasis is crucial to our understanding of evolutionary dynamics and the elucidation of sequence-structure-function relationships. We featured recent studies that provide insights into the molecular mechanisms giving rise to epistasis, particularly at the structural level. These studies illustrate the convoluted and fascinating nature of the intramolecular networks co-opted by epistasis during the evolution of protein function.
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Affiliation(s)
- Charlotte M Miton
- Michael Smith Laboratories, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, V6T 1Z4, BC, Canada
| | - Karol Buda
- Michael Smith Laboratories, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, V6T 1Z4, BC, Canada
| | - Nobuhiko Tokuriki
- Michael Smith Laboratories, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, V6T 1Z4, BC, Canada.
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Bhat AS, Dustin Schaeffer R, Kinch L, Medvedev KE, Grishin NV. Recent advances suggest increased influence of selective pressure in allostery. Curr Opin Struct Biol 2020; 62:183-188. [PMID: 32302874 DOI: 10.1016/j.sbi.2020.02.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/01/2019] [Revised: 02/21/2020] [Accepted: 02/25/2020] [Indexed: 12/19/2022]
Abstract
Allosteric regulation of protein functions is ubiquitous in organismal biology, but the principles governing its evolution are not well understood. Here we discuss recent studies supporting the large-scale existence of latent allostery in ancestor proteins of superfamilies. As suggested, the evolution of allostery could be driven by the need for specificity in paralogs of slow evolving protein complexes with conserved active sites. The same slow evolution is displayed by purifying selection exhibited in allosteric proteins with somatic mutations involved in cancer, where disease-associated mutations are enriched in both orthosteric and allosteric sites. Consequently, disease-associated variants can be used to identify druggable allosteric sites that are specific for paralogs in protein superfamilies with otherwise similar functions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Archana S Bhat
- Department of Biophysics, University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, TX 75390-9050, United States
| | - Richard Dustin Schaeffer
- Department of Biophysics, University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, TX 75390-9050, United States
| | - Lisa Kinch
- Howard Hughes Medical Institute, University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, TX 75390-9050, United States
| | - Kirill E Medvedev
- Department of Biophysics, University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, TX 75390-9050, United States
| | - Nick V Grishin
- Department of Biophysics, University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, TX 75390-9050, United States; Howard Hughes Medical Institute, University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, TX 75390-9050, United States.
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8
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Miton CM, Chen JZ, Ost K, Anderson DW, Tokuriki N. Statistical analysis of mutational epistasis to reveal intramolecular interaction networks in proteins. Methods Enzymol 2020; 643:243-280. [DOI: 10.1016/bs.mie.2020.07.012] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/22/2023]
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9
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Sharir-Ivry A, Xia Y. Non-catalytic Binding Sites Induce Weaker Long-Range Evolutionary Rate Gradients than Catalytic Sites in Enzymes. J Mol Biol 2019; 431:3860-3870. [DOI: 10.1016/j.jmb.2019.07.019] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/29/2019] [Revised: 06/26/2019] [Accepted: 07/11/2019] [Indexed: 01/02/2023]
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Sharir-Ivry A, Xia Y. Nature of Long-Range Evolutionary Constraint in Enzymes: Insights from Comparison to Pseudoenzymes with Similar Structures. Mol Biol Evol 2019; 35:2597-2606. [PMID: 30202983 DOI: 10.1093/molbev/msy177] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Enzymes are known to fine-tune their sequences to optimize catalytic function, yet quantitative evolutionary design principles of enzymes remain elusive on the proteomic scale. Recently, it was found that the catalytic site in enzymes induces long-range evolutionary constraint, where even sites distant to the catalytic site are more conserved than expected. Given that protein-fold usage is generally different between enzymes and nonenzymes, it remains an open question to what extent this long-range evolutionary constraint in enzymes is dictated, either directly or indirectly, by the special three-dimensional structure of the enzyme. To investigate this question, we have compared evolutionary properties of enzymes with those of counterpart pseudoenzymes that share the same protein fold but are catalytically inactive. We found that the long-range evolutionary constraint observed in enzymes is significantly reduced in pseudoenzyme counterparts, despite very high structural similarity (∼1.5 Å RMSD on average). Furthermore, this significant reduction in long-range evolutionary constraint is observed even in pseudoenzyme counterparts which retain the ligand-binding ability of enzymes. Finally, the distance between the site that induces the highest gradient of sequence conservation and the pseudocatalytic site in pseudoenzymes is significantly larger than the corresponding distance in enzymes. Taken together, our results suggest that the long-range evolutionary constraint in enzymes is induced mainly by the presence of the catalytic site rather than by the special three-dimensional structure of the enzyme, and that such long-range evolutionary constraint in enzymes depends mainly on the catalytic function of the active site rather than on the ligand-binding ability of the enzyme.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Yu Xia
- Department of Bioengineering, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada
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11
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How Often Do Protein Genes Navigate Valleys of Low Fitness? Genes (Basel) 2019; 10:genes10040283. [PMID: 30965625 PMCID: PMC6523826 DOI: 10.3390/genes10040283] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/07/2019] [Revised: 03/27/2019] [Accepted: 04/02/2019] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
To escape from local fitness peaks, a population must navigate across valleys of low fitness. How these transitions occur, and what role they play in adaptation, have been subjects of active interest in evolutionary genetics for almost a century. However, to our knowledge, this problem has never been addressed directly by considering the evolution of a gene, or group of genes, as a whole, including the complex effects of fitness interactions among multiple loci. Here, we use a precise model of protein fitness to compute the probability P ( s , Δ t ) that an allele, randomly sampled from a population at time t, has crossed a fitness valley of depth s during an interval t - Δ t , t in the immediate past. We study populations of model genes evolving under equilibrium conditions consistent with those in mammalian mitochondria. From this data, we estimate that genes encoding small protein motifs navigate fitness valleys of depth 2 N s ≳ 30 with probability P ≳ 0 . 1 on a time scale of human evolution, where N is the (mitochondrial) effective population size. The results are consistent with recent findings for Watson⁻Crick switching in mammalian mitochondrial tRNA molecules.
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Echave J. Beyond Stability Constraints: A Biophysical Model of Enzyme Evolution with Selection on Stability and Activity. Mol Biol Evol 2018; 36:613-620. [DOI: 10.1093/molbev/msy244] [Citation(s) in RCA: 26] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/14/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Julian Echave
- Escuela de Ciencia y Tecnología, Universidad Nacional de San Martín (UNSAM), Buenos Aires, Argentina
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Nelson ED, Grishin NV. Inference of epistatic effects in a key mitochondrial protein. Phys Rev E 2018; 97:062404. [PMID: 30011480 DOI: 10.1103/physreve.97.062404] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/02/2017] [Indexed: 12/17/2022]
Abstract
We use Potts model inference to predict pair epistatic effects in a key mitochondrial protein-cytochrome c oxidase subunit 2-for ray-finned fishes. We examine the effect of phylogenetic correlations on our predictions using a simple exact fitness model, and we find that, although epistatic effects are underpredicted, they maintain a roughly linear relationship to their true (model) values. After accounting for this correction, epistatic effects in the protein are still relatively weak, leading to fitness valleys of depth 2Ns≃-5 in compensatory double mutants. Interestingly, positive epistasis is more pronounced than negative epistasis, and the strongest positive effects capture nearly all sites subject to positive selection in fishes, similar to virus proteins evolving under selection pressure in the context of drug therapy.
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Affiliation(s)
- Erik D Nelson
- Howard Hughes Medical Institute, University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, 6001 Forest Park Blvd., Room ND10.124, Dallas, Texas 75235-9050, USA
| | - Nick V Grishin
- Howard Hughes Medical Institute, University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, 6001 Forest Park Blvd., Room ND10.124, Dallas, Texas 75235-9050, USA
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Abstract
A long-standing goal in evolutionary biology is predicting evolution. Here, we show that the architecture of macromolecules fundamentally limits evolutionary predictability. Under physiological conditions, macromolecules, like proteins, flip between multiple structures, forming an ensemble of structures. A mutation affects all of these structures in slightly different ways, redistributing the relative probabilities of structures in the ensemble. As a result, mutations that follow the first mutation have a different effect than they would if introduced before. This implies that knowing the effects of every mutation in an ancestor would be insufficient to predict evolutionary trajectories past the first few steps, leading to profound unpredictability in evolution. We, therefore, conclude that detailed evolutionary predictions are not possible given the chemistry of macromolecules. Evolutionary prediction is of deep practical and philosophical importance. Here we show, using a simple computational protein model, that protein evolution remains unpredictable, even if one knows the effects of all mutations in an ancestral protein background. We performed a virtual deep mutational scan—revealing the individual and pairwise epistatic effects of every mutation to our model protein—and then used this information to predict evolutionary trajectories. Our predictions were poor. This is a consequence of statistical thermodynamics. Proteins exist as ensembles of similar conformations. The effect of a mutation depends on the relative probabilities of conformations in the ensemble, which in turn, depend on the exact amino acid sequence of the protein. Accumulating substitutions alter the relative probabilities of conformations, thereby changing the effects of future mutations. This manifests itself as subtle but pervasive high-order epistasis. Uncertainty in the effect of each mutation accumulates and undermines prediction. Because conformational ensembles are an inevitable feature of proteins, this is likely universal.
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