Validation of EGCRISC for Chronic Hepatitis C Infection Screening and Risk Assessment in the Egyptian Population

A Cross-sectional Study to Identify Risk Factors for Hepatitis C in Punjab, India

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) antibody prevalence in Punjab, India (0.56%) is higher than the national average (0.32%), but primary drivers of local transmission are unclear.

OBJECTIVES

The objective of this study was to identify behavioral and demographic predictors of screening positive for HCV in Punjab.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Interviews assessing exposure to potential HCV risk factors were administered cross-sectionally to persons screening for HCV across 10 treatment facilities. Risk ratios (RRs) were calculated using generalized estimating equation models accounting for clustering by health facility.

RESULTS

One thousand seven hundred and sixty-three patients tested anti-HCV positive; 595 were negative. 57.7% of respondents were male; the median age was 40 years. 13.8% reported injecting drugs. Males were more likely to test positive than females (RR: 1.14, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.07-1.21). Unmarried men were at higher risk of anti-HCV positivity compared with married men (RR: 1.16, 95% CI: 1.08-1.24), but unmarried women were at lower risk (RR: 0.65, 95% CI: 0.43-0.98). The strongest risk factors were history of injecting drugs (RR: 1.37, 95% CI: 1.24-1.51), incarceration (RR: 1.22, 95% CI: 1.12-1.33), acupuncture use (RR: 1.20, 95% CI: 1.09-1.33), having household member(s) with a history of incarceration (RR: 1.17, 95% CI: 1.08-1.26), and tattoos (RR: 1.16, 95% CI: 1.09-1.24). Additional risk factors among men included receiving injections in a public hospital or from unregistered medical practitioners and among women included a history of childbirth.

CONCLUSION

Injecting drugs was most strongly associated with anti-HCV positivity in this population. Greater attention to HCV prevention is needed, with a focus on people-centered harm reduction programs, behavioral change interventions, and increasing safety in potential transmission settings.

Risk Assessment Tools from the One Health Perspective: A Narrative Review

Background

61% of the infections around the world that have emerged to date are zoonotic. Evidence warns that the threat posed by zoonoses is on the rise, and the risk of a new pandemic is higher now than ever. Early identification of risk, populations at risk, and risk of transmission are essential steps towards a prevention, preparation and response to outbreaks. This review aims to look at the tools available for identifying and estimating risks and threats from one health perspective and finally propose a list of indicators which could assess the risk of transmission of disease at the humans, animals and the environment intersection.

Methods

The databases like PubMed, google scholar, Embase and Scopus were used to extract the relevant articles. A search was carried out using a keyword. A total of 1311 articles were listed initially after the search and reviewed. Out of 1311, only 26 tools which assessed the risk of diseases mainly infectious or were relevant to risk of transmission of any infectious diseases were included in the review.

Results

The tools included in this review involve risk assessment at the environmental, animal and human dimensions. The tools are used to evaluate the contamination of the environment due to chemicals or toxins or the risk of transmission of infection due to environmental factors like air contamination, to identify the animal diseases like bovine respiratory disease and foot and mouth disease and to estimate the human health risk at the community or individual levels.

Conclusion

Risk assessment tools are an essential part of the prevention of pandemics. These tools are helpful in assessing the risk of transmission of infections either from human to human, between human and animals, between animals and animals and so on. Thus this review gives us an insight into the existing risk assessment tools and the need for a One Health risk assessment tools to prevent outbreaks in future. It also provides a list of factors that can be included in a one health risk assessment tool.

Performance and modification of EGCRISC among hepatitis C virus high-risk groups

We have previously shown that the Egyptian Hepatitis C Virus Risk Score (EGCRISC), an Egyptian hepatitis C virus (HCV) risk-based screening tool, to be valid and cost-effective. Certain behaviours, occupations and diseases have been shown to be associated with an increased risk of exposure to HCV infection and constitute a major population reservoir of HCV infection. This study investigated the efficacy of EGCRISC in selected high-risk groups by testing 863 participants from four groups: slaughterhouse workers, illicit drug users (IDUs), female sex workers and human immune deficiency virus (HIV) patients. Data for this study were collected on EGCRISC and another pre-designed risk factor questionnaire. Sera were tested for HCV antibodies by ELISA. EGCRISC, at lower cut-off points, showed significantly good performance (P < 0.05) in all four groups except for females <45 years, but was reliable in detecting HCV cases (sensitivity: 84.21% and negative predictive value: 94.5%). Specific scores for IDUs and HIV patients were developed that showed high accuracy (P < 0.001). A modified EGCRISC for high-risk groups (EGCRISC-HRGs) was shown to be a valid tool that is recommended for use in high-risk populations if no other specific screening tool is available or universal screening is applied. EGCRISC for IDUs (EGCRISC-IDUs) and EGCRISC for HIV patients (EGCRISC-HIV) are useful tools for preselecting potentially HCV-infected cases for further testing in settings where serological analysis is not readily available or accessible.

Geospatial epidemiology of hepatitis C infection in Egypt 2017 by governorate

BACKGROUND

Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and spatial epidemiological methods may provide a basis for disease investigation through which hotspots and disease determinants can be identified. Applying these methods for hepatitis C virus (HCV) in Egypt would support a more effective strategy to control its transmission. Therefore, this study used GIS software to draw one of the first HCV maps in Egypt elucidating and analyzing geographical and epidemiological differences in HCV distribution within the country.

METHODS

A cross-sectional survey of 21 governorates (n = 12169, 8080 rural, 3733 urban and 356 slums areas) was completed. All participants were interviewed regarding potential exposures to HCV. Third generation ELISA was used to test serum for HCV antibody. Quantitative real-time RT-PCR was used to test anti-HCV positive subjects for HCV-RNA.

RESULTS

The participants ranged in age from 14-90 years. Overall, anti-HCV sero-prevalence was 14.8%. The prevalence of HCV-RNA, was 9.5%. Proportionally, 65.8% of anti-HCV positives were positive for HCV-RNA. The map of Egyptian governorates highlighted the darkest spot of HCV infection in Menoufeya (37.8%) followed by Beni Suef (29.2%) and Minya (28.6%). Anti-HCV prevalence was higher among males and logistic regression models revealed a strong independent association with increasing age, rural residence and parenteral anti-schistosomal therapy.

CONCLUSIONS

Rural residences and HCV hotspots should be prioritized for HCV prevention programs. The unique age distribution first shown in this study shows that the older age groups (≥60 years old) constitutes a considerable reservoir of infection and must not be neglected.

Cost-effectiveness of EGCRISC application versus hepatitis C virus mass screening in Egypt

BACKGROUND

The Egyptian model of care against hepatitis C virus (HCV) has a great success in treatment and treatment accessibility, but still screening efforts must be strengthened. HCV is a silent infection when most of infected people are unaware of their infection. EGCRISC is a newly developed and validated risk-based HCV screening tool in Egypt that has shown a considerably good performance but is still underused. This brief communication is to analyze its use cost-effectiveness versus mass screening.

STUDY DESIGN

Mathematical comparative analysis for economic evaluation.

METHODS

Its performance data as published recently were used, and a minimum cost of L.E. 20 was considered per one antibody testing. The 2015 health issue survey and population census were used for estimating the population, infected individuals and susceptibles.

RESULTS

The analysis showed that using EGCRISC would save LE 0.43 billion accounting for about 21,646,227 unnecessary tests, while missing less than 70,000 cases when compared to mass screening.

CONCLUSION

EGCRISC is a cost-effective tool that must be adopted nationwide as soon as possible in Egypt for the best outcome of HCV control.

Validation of discharge diagnosis codes to identify serious infections among middle age and older adults

OBJECTIVES

Hospitalisations for serious infections are common among middle age and older adults and frequently used as study outcomes. Yet, few studies have evaluated the performance of diagnosis codes to identify serious infections in this population. We sought to determine the positive predictive value (PPV) of diagnosis codes for identifying hospitalisations due to serious infections among middle age and older adults.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

We identified hospitalisations for possible infection among adults >=50 years enrolled in the Tennessee Medicaid healthcare programme (2008-2012) using International Classifications of Diseases, Ninth Revision diagnosis codes for pneumonia, meningitis/encephalitis, bacteraemia/sepsis, cellulitis/soft-tissue infections, endocarditis, pyelonephritis and septic arthritis/osteomyelitis.

DESIGN

Medical records were systematically obtained from hospitals randomly selected from a stratified sampling framework based on geographical region and hospital discharge volume.

MEASURES

Two trained clinical reviewers used a standardised extraction form to abstract information from medical records. Predefined algorithms served as reference to adjudicate confirmed infection-specific hospitalisations. We calculated the PPV of diagnosis codes using confirmed hospitalisations as reference. Sensitivity analyses determined the robustness of the PPV to definitions that required radiological or microbiological confirmation. We also determined inter-rater reliability between reviewers.

RESULTS

The PPV of diagnosis codes for hospitalisations for infection (n=716) was 90.2% (95% CI 87.8% to 92.2%). The PPV was highest for pneumonia (96.5% (95% CI 93.9% to 98.0%)) and cellulitis (91.1% (95% CI 84.7% to 94.9%)), and lowest for meningitis/encephalitis (50.0% (95% CI 23.7% to 76.3%)). The adjudication reliability was excellent (92.7% agreement; first agreement coefficient: 0.91). The overall PPV was lower when requiring microbiological confirmation (45%) and when requiring radiological confirmation for pneumonia (79%).

CONCLUSIONS

Discharge diagnosis codes have a high PPV for identifying hospitalisations for common, serious infections among middle age and older adults. PPV estimates for rare infections were imprecise.