Genetic micro-epidemiology of malaria in Papua Indonesia: Extensive P. vivax diversity and a distinct subpopulation of asymptomatic P. falciparum infections

Molecular markers for malaria genetic epidemiology: progress and pitfalls

Over recent years, progress in molecular markers for genotyping malaria parasites has enabled informative studies of epidemiology and transmission dynamics. Results have highlighted the value of these tools for surveillance to support malaria control and elimination strategies. There are many different types and panels of markers available for malaria parasite genotyping, and for end users, the nuances of these markers with respect to 'use case', resolution, and accuracy, are not well defined. This review clarifies issues surrounding different molecular markers and their application to malaria control and elimination. We describe available marker panels, use cases, implications for different transmission settings, limitations, access, cost, and data accuracy. The information provided can be used as a guide for molecular epidemiology and surveillance of malaria.

Plasmodium falciparum genomic surveillance reveals spatial and temporal trends, association of genetic and physical distance, and household clustering

Molecular epidemiology using genomic data can help identify relationships between malaria parasite population structure, malaria transmission intensity, and ultimately help generate actionable data to assess the effectiveness of malaria control strategies. Genomic data, coupled with geographic information systems data, can further identify clusters or hotspots of malaria transmission, parasite genetic and spatial connectivity, and parasite movement by human or mosquito mobility over time and space. In this study, we performed longitudinal genomic surveillance in a cohort of 70 participants over four years from different neighborhoods and households in Thiès, Senegal—a region of exceptionally low malaria transmission (entomological inoculation rate less than 1). Genetic identity (identity by state, IBS) was established using a 24-single nucleotide polymorphism molecular barcode, identity by descent was calculated from whole genome sequence data, and a hierarchical Bayesian regression model was used to establish genetic and spatial relationships. Our results show clustering of genetically similar parasites within households and a decline in genetic similarity of parasites with increasing distance. One household showed extremely high diversity and warrants further investigation as to the source of these diverse genetic types. This study illustrates the utility of genomic data with traditional epidemiological approaches for surveillance and detection of trends and patterns in malaria transmission not only by neighborhood but also by household. This approach can be implemented regionally and countrywide to strengthen and support malaria control and elimination efforts.

Monitoring Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax using microsatellite markers indicates limited changes in population structure after substantial transmission decline in Papua New Guinea

Monitoring the genetic structure of pathogen populations may be an economical and sensitive approach to quantify the impact of control on transmission dynamics, highlighting the need for a better understanding of changes in population genetic parameters as transmission declines. Here we describe the first population genetic analysis of two major human malaria parasites, Plasmodium falciparum (Pf) and Plasmodium vivax (Pv), following nationwide distribution of long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (LLINs) in Papua New Guinea (PNG). Parasite isolates from pre- (2005-2006) and post-LLIN (2010-2014) were genotyped using microsatellite markers. Despite parasite prevalence declining substantially (East Sepik Province: Pf = 54.9%-8.5%, Pv = 35.7%-5.6%, Madang Province: Pf = 38.0%-9.0%, Pv: 31.8%-19.7%), genetically diverse and intermixing parasite populations remained. Pf diversity declined modestly post-LLIN relative to pre-LLIN (East Sepik: R_s  = 7.1-6.4, H_E  = 0.77-0.71; Madang: R_s  = 8.2-6.1, H_E  = 0.79-0.71). Unexpectedly, population structure present in pre-LLIN populations was lost post-LLIN, suggesting that more frequent human movement between provinces may have contributed to higher gene flow. Pv prevalence initially declined but increased again in one province, yet diversity remained high throughout the study period (East Sepik: R_s  = 11.4-9.3, H_E  = 0.83-0.80; Madang: R_s  = 12.2-14.5, H_E  = 0.85-0.88). Although genetic differentiation values increased between provinces over time, no significant population structure was observed at any time point. For both species, a decline in multiple infections and increasing clonal transmission and significant multilocus linkage disequilibrium post-LLIN were positive indicators of impact on the parasite population using microsatellite markers. These parameters may be useful adjuncts to traditional epidemiological tools in the early stages of transmission reduction.

Evaluation of Implementation of Intermittent Screening and Treatment for Control of Malaria in Pregnancy in Jharkhand, India

This study evaluated intermittent screening and treatment during pregnancy (ISTp) for malaria using rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) at antenatal care (ANC) compared with passive case detection within the routine health system. The mixed-method evaluation included two cross-sectional household surveys (pre- and post-implementation of ISTp), in-depth interviews with health workers, and focus group discussions (FGDs) with pregnant women. Differences in proportions between surveys for a number of outcomes were tested; 553 and 534 current and recently pregnant women were surveyed (pre- and post-implementation, respectively). In-depth interviews were conducted with 29 health providers, and 13 FGDs were held with pregnant women. The proportion of pregnant women who received an RDT for malaria at ANC at least once during their pregnancy increased from pre- to post-implementation (19.2%; 95% CI: 14.9, 24.3 versus 42.5%; 95% CI: 36.6, 48.7; P < 0.0001), and the proportion of women who had more than one RDT also increased (16.5%; 95% CI: 13.1, 20.5 versus 27.7%; 95% CI: 23.0, 33.0; P = 0.0008). Post-implementation, however, only 8% of women who had completed their pregnancy received an RDT on three visits to ANC. Health workers were positive about ISTp mainly because of their perception that many pregnant women with malaria were asymptomatic. Health workers perceived pregnant women to have reservations about ISTp because of their dislike of frequent blood withdrawal, but pregnant women themselves were more positive. Intermittent screening and treatment during pregnancy was not sufficiently adopted by health workers to ensure the increased detection of malaria infections achievable with this strategy in this setting.

Molecular surveillance over 14 years confirms reduction of Plasmodium vivax and falciparum transmission after implementation of Artemisinin-based combination therapy in Papua, Indonesia

Genetic epidemiology can provide important insights into parasite transmission that can inform public health interventions. The current study compared long-term changes in the genetic diversity and structure of co-endemic Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax populations. The study was conducted in Papua Indonesia, where high-grade chloroquine resistance in P. falciparum and P. vivax led to a universal policy of Artemisinin-based Combination Therapy (ACT) in 2006. Microsatellite typing and population genetic analyses were undertaken on available isolates collected between 2004 and 2017 from patients with uncomplicated malaria (n = 666 P. falciparum and n = 615 P. vivax). The proportion of polyclonal P. falciparum infections fell from 28% (38/135) before policy change (2004-2006) to 18% (22/125) at the end of the study (2015-2017); p<0.001. Over the same period, polyclonal P. vivax infections fell from 67% (80/119) to 35% (33/93); p<0.001. P. falciparum strains persisted for up to 9 years compared to 3 months for P. vivax, reflecting higher rates of outbreeding in the latter. Sub-structure was observed in the P. falciparum population, but not in P. vivax, confirming different patterns of outbreeding. The P. falciparum population exhibited 4 subpopulations that changed in frequency over time. Notably, a sharp rise was observed in the frequency of a minor subpopulation (K2) in the late post-ACT period, accounting for 100% of infections in late 2016-2017. The results confirm epidemiological evidence of reduced P. falciparum and P. vivax transmission over time. The smaller change in P. vivax population structure is consistent with greater outbreeding associated with relapsing infections and highlights the need for radical cure to reduce recurrent infections. The study emphasizes the challenge in disrupting P. vivax transmission and demonstrates the potential of molecular data to inform on the impact of public health interventions.

A molecular barcode to inform the geographical origin and transmission dynamics of Plasmodium vivax malaria

Although Plasmodium vivax parasites are the predominant cause of malaria outside of sub-Saharan Africa, they not always prioritised by elimination programmes. P. vivax is resilient and poses challenges through its ability to re-emerge from dormancy in the human liver. With observed growing drug-resistance and the increasing reports of life-threatening infections, new tools to inform elimination efforts are needed. In order to halt transmission, we need to better understand the dynamics of transmission, the movement of parasites, and the reservoirs of infection in order to design targeted interventions. The use of molecular genetics and epidemiology for tracking and studying malaria parasite populations has been applied successfully in P. falciparum species and here we sought to develop a molecular genetic tool for P. vivax. By assembling the largest set of P. vivax whole genome sequences (n = 433) spanning 17 countries, and applying a machine learning approach, we created a 71 SNP barcode with high predictive ability to identify geographic origin (91.4%). Further, due to the inclusion of markers for within population variability, the barcode may also distinguish local transmission networks. By using P. vivax data from a low-transmission setting in Malaysia, we demonstrate the potential ability to infer outbreak events. By characterising the barcoding SNP genotypes in P. vivax DNA sourced from UK travellers (n = 132) to ten malaria endemic countries predominantly not used in the barcode construction, we correctly predicted the geographic region of infection origin. Overall, the 71 SNP barcode outperforms previously published genotyping methods and when rolled-out within new portable platforms, is likely to be an invaluable tool for informing targeted interventions towards elimination of this resilient human malaria.

Evaluation of the implementation of single screening and treatment for the control of malaria in pregnancy in Eastern Indonesia: a systems effectiveness analysis

Background

Indonesia introduced single screening and treatment (SST) of pregnant women for the control of malaria in pregnancy in 2012. Under this policy pregnant women are screened for malaria at their first antenatal clinic (ANC) visit and on subsequent visits are tested for malaria only if symptomatic. The implementation of this policy in two districts of Indonesia was evaluated. Cross sectional survey structured observations of the ANC visit and exit interviews with pregnant women were conducted to assess health provider compliance with SST guidelines. Systems effectiveness analysis was performed on components of the strategy. Multiple logistic regression was used to test for predictors of women being screened at their first ANC visit.

Results

A total of 865 and 895 ANC visits in Mimika and West Sumba across seven and ten health facilities (plus managed health posts) respectively, were included in the study. Adherence to malaria screening at first ANC visit among pregnant women was 51.4% (95% CI 11.9, 89.2) in health facilities in Mimika (94.8% in health centres) and 24.8% (95% CI 10.3, 48.9) in West Sumba (60.0% in health centres). Reported fever was low amongst women presenting for their second and above ANC visit (2.8% in Mimika and 3.5% in West Sumba) with 89.5% and 46.2% of these women tested for malaria in Mimka and West Sumba, respectively. Cumulative systems effectiveness for SST on first visit to ANC was 7.6% for Mimika and 0.1% for West Sumba; and for second or above visits to ANC was 0.7% in Mimika and 0% in West Sumba. Being screened on a 1st visit to ANC was associated with level of health facility in both sites.

Conclusion

Cumulative systems effectiveness of the SST strategy was poor in both sites. Both elements of the SST strategy, screening on first visit and passive case detection on second and above visits, was driven by the difference in implementation of malaria testing in health centres and health posts, and by low malaria transmission levels and reported fever.

Mathematical modelling of the impact of expanding levels of malaria control interventions on Plasmodium vivax

Plasmodium vivax poses unique challenges for malaria control and elimination, notably the potential for relapses to maintain transmission in the face of drug-based treatment and vector control strategies. We developed an individual-based mathematical model of P. vivax transmission calibrated to epidemiological data from Papua New Guinea (PNG). In many settings in PNG, increasing bed net coverage is predicted to reduce transmission to less than 0.1% prevalence by light microscopy, however there is substantial risk of rebounds in transmission if interventions are removed prematurely. In several high transmission settings, model simulations predict that combinations of existing interventions are not sufficient to interrupt P. vivax transmission. This analysis highlights the potential options for the future of P. vivax control: maintaining existing public health gains by keeping transmission suppressed through indefinite distribution of interventions; or continued development of strategies based on existing and new interventions to push for further reduction and towards elimination.

Genomic analysis of a pre-elimination Malaysian Plasmodium vivax population reveals selective pressures and changing transmission dynamics

The incidence of Plasmodium vivax infection has declined markedly in Malaysia over the past decade despite evidence of high-grade chloroquine resistance. Here we investigate the genetic changes in a P. vivax population approaching elimination in 51 isolates from Sabah, Malaysia and compare these with data from 104 isolates from Thailand and 104 isolates from Indonesia. Sabah displays extensive population structure, mirroring that previously seen with the emergence of artemisinin-resistant P. falciparum founder populations in Cambodia. Fifty-four percent of the Sabah isolates have identical genomes, consistent with a rapid clonal expansion. Across Sabah, there is a high prevalence of loci known to be associated with antimalarial drug resistance. Measures of differentiation between the three countries reveal several gene regions under putative selection in Sabah. Our findings highlight important factors pertinent to parasite resurgence and molecular cues that can be used to monitor low-endemic populations at the end stages of P. vivax elimination.

Passively versus Actively Detected Malaria: Similar Genetic Diversity but Different Complexity of Infection

The surveillance of malaria is generally undertaken on the assumption that samples passively collected at health facilities are comparable to or representative of the broader Plasmodium reservoir circulating in the community. Further characterization and comparability of the hidden asymptomatic parasite reservoir are needed to inform on the potential impact of sampling bias. This study explores the impact of sampling strategy on molecular surveillance by comparing the genetic make-up of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax isolates collected by passive versus active case detection. Sympatric isolates of P. falciparum and P. vivax were collected from a large community survey and ongoing clinical surveillance studies undertaken in the hypomesoendemic setting of Mimika District (Papua, Indonesia). Plasmodium falciparum isolates were genotyped at nine microsatellite loci and P. vivax at eight loci. Measures of diversity and differentiation were used to compare different patient and parasitological sample groups. The results demonstrated that passively detected cases (symptomatic) had comparable population diversity to those circulating in the community (asymptomatic) in both species. In addition, asymptomatic patent infections were as diverse as subpatent infections. However, a significant difference in multiplicity of infection (MOI) and percentage of polyclonal infections was observed between actively and passively detected P. vivax cases (mean MOI: 1.7 ± 0.7 versus 1.4 ± 1.4, respectively; P = 0.001). The study findings infer that, in hypomesoendemic settings, passive sampling is appropriate for molecular parasite surveillance strategies using the predominant clone in any given infection; however, the findings suggest caution when analyzing complexity of infection. Further evaluation is required in other endemic settings.

Nationwide genetic surveillance of Plasmodium vivax in Papua New Guinea reveals heterogeneous transmission dynamics and routes of migration amongst subdivided populations

The Asia Pacific Leaders in Malaria Alliance (APLMA) have committed to eliminate malaria from the region by 2030. Papua New Guinea (PNG) has the highest malaria burden in the Asia-Pacific region but with the intensification of control efforts since 2005, transmission has been dramatically reduced and Plasmodium vivax is now the dominant malaria infection in some parts of the country. To gain a better understanding of the transmission dynamics and migration patterns of P. vivax in PNG, here we investigate population structure in eight geographically and ecologically distinct regions of the country. A total of 219 P. vivax isolates (16-30 per population) were successfully haplotyped using 10 microsatellite markers. A wide range of genetic diversity (H_e=0.37-0.87, R_s=3.60-7.58) and significant multilocus linkage disequilibrium (LD) was observed in six of the eight populations (I_A^S=0.08-0.15 p-value<0.05) reflecting a spectrum of transmission intensities across the country. Genetic differentiation between regions was evident (Jost's D=0.07-0.72), with increasing divergence of populations with geographic distance. Overall, P. vivax isolates clustered into three major genetic populations subdividing the Mainland lowland and coastal regions, the Islands and the Highlands. P. vivax gene flow follows major human migration routes, and there was higher gene flow amongst Mainland parasite populations than among Island populations. The Central Province (samples collected in villages close to the capital city, Port Moresby), acts as a sink for imported infections from the three major endemic areas. These insights into P. vivax transmission dynamics and population networks will inform targeted strategies to contain malaria infections and to prevent the spread of drug resistance in PNG.

Malaria Epidemiology at the Clone Level

Genotyping to distinguish between parasite clones is nowadays a standard in many molecular epidemiological studies of malaria. It has become crucial in drug trials and to follow individual clones in epidemiological studies, and to understand how drug resistance emerges and spreads. Here, we review the applications of the increasingly available genotyping tools and whole-genome sequencing data, and argue for a better integration of population genetics findings into malaria-control strategies.