Temporal dynamics of online petitions

Mobilizing grievances in the internet age: The case of national online petitioning in South Korea, 2017-2022

Which kinds of grievances garner support from the public on online platforms? Focusing on national online petitioning, one of the forms of direct democracy in contemporary politics, we examine the content and characteristics of petitions that succeeded in attracting public attention and support. Using our comprehensive data on online petitions that were submitted to the executive office between 2017 and 2022 in South Korea, our analysis yields three important findings. First, a mix of post-materialist topics such as human rights and gender equality and materialist topics such as safety and environment turn out to be salient among petitions that meet the signature threshold. Second, online petitions the contents of which reveal either moral emotions or Confucian attitudes are more likely to gain public support compared to others. Third, keywords that are related to moral claims asking for the apprehension of perpetrators on behalf of victims, such as 'victim,' 'perpetrator,' 'kid,' and 'punishment,' appear most frequently inside the petitions that cross the signature threshold. Such findings provide implications for understanding both the potentials and limitations of national online petitioning in contemporary democracies.

The great divide: drivers of polarization in the US public

Many democratic societies have become more politically polarized, with the U.S. being the main example. The origins of this phenomenon are still not well-understood and subject to debate. To provide insight into some of the mechanisms underlying political polarization, we develop a mathematical framework and employ Bayesian Markov chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) and information-theoretic concepts to analyze empirical data on political polarization that has been collected by Pew Research Center from 1994 to 2017. Our framework can capture the evolution of polarization in the Democratic- and Republican-leaning segments of the U.S. public and allows us to identify its drivers. Our empirical and quantitative evidence suggests that political polarization in the U.S. is mainly driven by strong political/cultural initiatives in the Democratic party.

ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL

The online version of this article (10.1140/epjds/s13688-020-00249-4) contains supplementary material.

Copula-based algorithm for generating bursty time series

Dynamical processes in various natural and social phenomena have been described by a series of events or event sequences showing non-Poissonian, bursty temporal patterns. Temporal correlations in such bursty time series can be understood not only by heterogeneous interevent times (IETs) but also by correlations between IETs. Modeling and simulating various dynamical processes requires us to generate event sequences with a heavy-tailed IET distribution and memory effects between IETs. For this, we propose a Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern copula-based algorithm for generating event sequences with correlated IETs when the IET distribution and the memory coefficient between two consecutive IETs are given. We successfully apply our algorithm to the cases with heavy-tailed IET distributions. We also compare our algorithm to the existing shuffling method to find that our algorithm outperforms the shuffling method for some cases. Our copula-based algorithm is expected to be used for more realistic modeling of various dynamical processes.

Ordered Avalanches on the Bethe Lattice

We discuss deterministic sequences of avalanches on a directed Bethe lattice. The approach is motivated by the phenomenon of self-organized criticality. Grains are added only at one node of the network. When the number of grains at any node exceeds a threshold b, each of k out-neighbors gets one grain. The probability of an avalanche of size s is proportional to s−τ. When the avalanche mass is conserved (k=b), we get τ=1. For an application of the model to social phenomena, the conservation condition can be released. Then, the exponent τ is found to depend on the model parameters; τ ≈ log(b)/log(k). The distribution of the time duration of avalanches is exponential. Multifractal analysis of the avalanche sequences reveals their strongly non-uniform fractal organization. Maximal value of the singularity strength αmax in the bifractal spectrum is found to be 1/τ.

Analytically solvable autocorrelation function for weakly correlated interevent times

Long-term temporal correlations observed in event sequences of natural and social phenomena have been characterized by algebraically decaying autocorrelation functions. Such temporal correlations can be understood not only by heterogeneous interevent times (IETs) but also by correlations between IETs. In contrast to the role of heterogeneous IETs on the autocorrelation function, little is known about the effects due to the correlations between IETs. To rigorously study these effects, we derive an analytical form of the autocorrelation function for the arbitrary IET distribution in the case with weakly correlated IETs, where the Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern copula is adopted for modeling the joint probability distribution function of two consecutive IETs. Our analytical results are confirmed by numerical simulations for exponential and power-law IET distributions. For the power-law case, we find a tendency of the steeper decay of the autocorrelation function for the stronger correlation between IETs. Our analytical approach enables us to better understand long-term temporal correlations induced by the correlations between IETs.

Correlated bursts in temporal networks slow down spreading

Spreading dynamics has been considered to take place in temporal networks, where temporal interaction patterns between nodes show non-Poissonian bursty nature. The effects of inhomogeneous interevent times (IETs) on the spreading have been extensively studied in recent years, yet little is known about the effects of correlations between IETs on the spreading. In order to investigate those effects, we study two-step deterministic susceptible-infected (SI) and probabilistic SI dynamics when the interaction patterns are modeled by inhomogeneous and correlated IETs, i.e., correlated bursts. By analyzing the transmission time statistics in a single-link setup and by simulating the spreading in Bethe lattices and random graphs, we conclude that the positive correlation between IETs slows down the spreading. We also argue that the shortest transmission time from one infected node to its susceptible neighbors can successfully explain our numerical results.

Limits of the memory coefficient in measuring correlated bursts

Temporal inhomogeneities in event sequences of natural and social phenomena have been characterized in terms of interevent times and correlations between interevent times. The inhomogeneities of interevent times have been extensively studied, while the correlations between interevent times, often called correlated bursts, are far from being fully understood. For measuring the correlated bursts, two relevant approaches were suggested, i.e., memory coefficient and burst size distribution. Here a burst size denotes the number of events in a bursty train detected for a given time window. Empirical analyses have revealed that the larger memory coefficient tends to be associated with the heavier tail of the burst size distribution. In particular, empirical findings in human activities appear inconsistent, such that the memory coefficient is close to 0, while burst size distributions follow a power law. In order to comprehend these observations, by assuming the conditional independence between consecutive interevent times, we derive the analytical form of the memory coefficient as a function of parameters describing interevent time and burst size distributions. Our analytical result can explain the general tendency of the larger memory coefficient being associated with the heavier tail of burst size distribution. We also find that the apparently inconsistent observations in human activities are compatible with each other, indicating that the memory coefficient has limits to measure the correlated bursts.

How digital design shapes political participation: A natural experiment with social information

Political behaviour increasingly takes place on digital platforms, where people are presented with a range of social information—real-time feedback about the behaviour of peers and reference groups—which can stimulate (or depress) participation. This social information is hypothesized to impact the distribution of political activity, stimulating participation in mobilizations that are increasing in popularity, and depressing participation in those that appear to be less popular, leading to a non-normal distribution. Changes to these platforms can generate natural experiments allowing for an estimate of the impact of different kinds of social information on participation. This paper tests the hypothesis that social information shapes the distribution of political mobilizations by examining the introduction of trending information to the homepage of the UK government petition platform. The introduction of the trending feature did not increase the overall number of signatures per day, but the distribution of signatures across petitions changed significantly—the most popular petitions gained more signatures at the expense of those with fewer signatories. We further find significant differences between petitions trending at different ranks on the homepage. This evidence suggests that the ubiquity of trending information on digital platforms is introducing instability into political markets, as has been shown for cultural markets. As well as highlighting the importance of digital design in shaping political behaviour, the findings suggest that a non-negligible group of individuals visit the homepage of the site looking for petitions to sign, without having decided the issues they wish to support in advance. These ‘aimless petitioners’ are particularly susceptible to changes in social information.

Clout, activists and budget: The road to presidency

Political campaigns involve, in the simplest case, two competing campaign groups which try to obtain a majority of votes. We propose a novel mathematical framework to study political campaign dynamics on social networks whose constituents are either political activists or persuadable individuals. Activists are convinced and do not change their opinion and they are able to move around in the social network to motivate persuadable individuals to vote according to their opinion. We describe the influence of the complex interplay between the number of activists, political clout, budgets, and campaign costs on the campaign result. We also identify situations where the choice of one campaign group to send a certain number of activists already pre-determines their victory. Moreover, we show that a candidate’s advantage in terms of political clout can overcome a substantial budget disadvantage or a lower number of activists, as illustrated by the US presidential election 2016.