Estimating the survival of elderly patients diagnosed with dementia in Taiwan: A longitudinal study

Prognostic models and factors identifying end-of-life in non-cancer chronic diseases: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Precise prognostic information, if available, is very helpful for guiding treatment decisions and resource allocation in patients with non-cancer non-communicable chronic diseases (NCDs). This study aimed to systematically review the existing evidence, examining prognostic models and factors for identifying end-of-life non-cancer NCD patients.

METHODS

Electronic databases, including Medline, Embase, CINAHL, Cochrane Library, PsychINFO and other sources, were searched from the inception of these databases up until June 2023. Studies published in English with findings mentioning prognostic models or factors related to identifying end-of-life in non-cancer NCD patients were included. The quality of studies was assessed using the Quality in Prognosis Studies tool.

RESULTS

The analysis included data from 41 studies, with 16 focusing on chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases (COPD), 10 on dementia, 6 on heart failure and 9 on mixed NCDs. Traditional statistical modelling was predominantly used for the identified prognostic models. Common predictors in COPD models included dyspnoea, forced expiratory volume in 1 s, functional status, exacerbation history and body mass index. Models for dementia and heart failure frequently included comorbidity, age, gender, blood tests and nutritional status. Similarly, mixed NCD models commonly included functional status, age, dyspnoea, the presence of skin pressure ulcers, oral intake and level of consciousness. The identified prognostic models exhibited varying predictive accuracy, with the majority demonstrating weak to moderate discriminatory performance (area under the curve: 0.5-0.8). Additionally, most of these models lacked independent external validation, and only a few underwent internal validation.

CONCLUSION

Our review summarised the most relevant predictors for identifying end-of-life in non-cancer NCDs. However, the predictive accuracy of identified models was generally inconsistent and low, and lacked external validation. Although efforts to improve these prognostic models should continue, clinicians should recognise the possibility that disease heterogeneity may limit the utility of these models for individual prognostication; they may be more useful for population level health planning.

Olfactory identification, cognition, depressive symptoms, and 5-year mortality in patients with subjective cognitive decline, mild cognitive impairment, and Alzheimer's disease

OBJECTIVE

An association between odor and cognitive impairment has been shown in many studies. The objective of the present hospital-based, single-center retrospective study was to assess the impact of odor impairment on the mortality of patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD), subjective cognitive decline (SCD), and mild cognitive impairment (MCI).

METHODS

Odor function was measured by Sniffin Sticks (Burghart Messtechnik, Holm, Germany) and the assessment of self-reported olfactory functioning and olfaction-related quality of life (ASOF) test. Cognitive performance was assessed by an extensive neuropsychological test battery, symptoms of depression were diagnosed with the Geriatric Depressive Scale (GDS). The influence of demographic factors such as gender, age, and education were examined.

RESULTS

Although the univariate analyses and pairwise post hoc comparison showed significant differences for some of the olfactory performance tests/subtests, the multivariate models showed no association between olfactory test performance and mortality among patients with cognitive impairment. "Attention," a domain of the Neuropsychological Test Battery Vienna (NTBV), as well as depressive symptoms, gender, and age, showed a significant influence on the mortality of the patient group.

CONCLUSION

Lower olfactory performance showed no impact on mortality. However, decreased cognitive function of "Attention" can be considered as an influential predictor for mortality.

Machine learning models identify predictive features of patient mortality across dementia types

BACKGROUND

Dementia care is challenging due to the divergent trajectories in disease progression and outcomes. Predictive models are needed to flag patients at risk of near-term mortality and identify factors contributing to mortality risk across different dementia types.

METHODS

Here, we developed machine-learning models predicting dementia patient mortality at four different survival thresholds using a dataset of 45,275 unique participants and 163,782 visit records from the U.S. National Alzheimer's Coordinating Center (NACC). We built multi-factorial XGBoost models using a small set of mortality predictors and conducted stratified analyses with dementiatype-specific models.

RESULTS

Our models achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) of over 0.82 utilizing nine parsimonious features for all 1-, 3-, 5-, and 10-year thresholds. The trained models mainly consisted of dementia-related predictors such as specific neuropsychological tests and were minimally affected by other age-related causes of death, e.g., stroke and cardiovascular conditions. Notably, stratified analyses revealed shared and distinct predictors of mortality across eight dementia types. Unsupervised clustering of mortality predictors grouped vascular dementia with depression and Lewy body dementia with frontotemporal lobar dementia.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates the feasibility of flagging dementia patients at risk of mortality for personalized clinical management. Parsimonious machine-learning models can be used to predict dementia patient mortality with a limited set of clinical features, and dementiatype-specific models can be applied to heterogeneous dementia patient populations.

Mortality rate and its determinants among people with dementia receiving home healthcare: a nationwide cohort study

People with dementia (PwD) who receive home healthcare (HHC) may have distressing symptoms, complex care needs and high mortality rates. However, there are few studies investigating the determinants of mortality in HHC recipients. To identify end-of-life care needs and tailor individualized care goals, we aim to explore the mortality rate and its determinants among PwD receiving HHC. We conducted a retrospective cohort study using a Taiwanese national population database. People with new dementia diagnosis in 2007-2016 who received HHC were included. We calculated the accumulative mortality rate and applied Poisson regression model to estimate the risk of mortality for each variable (adjusted risk ratios, aRR) with a 95% confidence interval (CI). We included 95,831 PwD and 57,036 (59.5%) of them died during the follow-up period (30.5% died in the first-year). Among comorbidities, cirrhosis was associated with the highest mortality risks (aRR 1.65, 95% CI 1.49-1.83). Among HHC-related factors, higher visit frequency of HHC (> 2 versus ≦1 times/month, aRR 3.52, 95% CI 3.39-3.66) and higher level of resource utilization group (RUG, RUG 4 versus 1, aRR = 1.38, 95% CI 1.25-1.51) were risk factor of mortality risk. Meanwhile, HHC provided by physician and nurse was related to reduced mortality risk (aRR 0.79, 95% CI 0.77-0.81) compared to those provided by nurse only. Anticipatory care planning and timely end-of life care should be integrated in light of the high mortality rate among PwD receiving HHC. Determinants associated with increased mortality risk facilitate the identification of high risk group and tailoring the appropriate care goals. Trial registration number: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier is NCT04250103 which has been registered on 31st January 2020.

Multimorbidity Pattern and Risk for Mortality Among Patients With Dementia: A Nationwide Cohort Study Using Latent Class Analysis

OBJECTIVE

Individuals with dementia are at a substantially elevated risk for mortality; however, few studies have examined multimorbidity patterns and determined the inter-relationship between these comorbidities in predicting mortality risk.

METHODS

This is a prospective cohort study. Data from 6,556 patients who were diagnosed with dementia between 1997 and 2012 using the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database were analyzed. Latent class analysis was performed using 16 common chronic conditions to identify mortality risk among potentially different latent classes. Logistic regression was performed to determine the adjusted association of the determined latent classes with the 5-year mortality rate.

RESULTS

With adjustment for age, a three-class model was identified, with 42.7% of participants classified as "low comorbidity class (cluster 1)", 44.2% as "cardiometabolic multimorbidity class (cluster 2)", and 13.1% as "FRINGED class (cluster 3, characterized by FRacture, Infection, NasoGastric feeding, and bleEDing over upper gastrointestinal tract)." The incidence of 5-year mortality was 17.6% in cluster 1, 26.7% in cluster 2, and 59.6% in cluster 3. Compared with cluster 1, the odds ratio for mortality was 9.828 (95% confidence interval [CI]=6.708-14.401; p<0.001) in cluster 2 and 1.582 (95% CI=1.281-1.953; p<0.001) in cluster 3.

CONCLUSION

Among patients with dementia, the risk for 5-year mortality was highest in the subpopulation characterized by fracture, urinary and pulmonary infection, upper gastrointestinal bleeding, and nasogastric intubation, rather than cancer or cardiometabolic comorbidities. These findings may improve decision-making and advance care planning for patients with dementia.

Predictive Models and Features of Patient Mortality across Dementia Types

Dementia care is challenging due to the divergent trajectories in disease progression and outcomes. Predictive models are needed to identify patients at risk of near-term mortality. Here, we developed machine learning models predicting survival using a dataset of 45,275 unique participants and 163,782 visit records from the U.S. National Alzheimer's Coordinating Center (NACC). Our models achieved an AUC-ROC of over 0.82 utilizing nine parsimonious features for all one-, three-, five-, and ten-year thresholds. The trained models mainly consisted of dementia-related predictors such as specific neuropsychological tests and were minimally affected by other age-related causes of death, e.g., stroke and cardiovascular conditions. Notably, stratified analyses revealed shared and distinct predictors of mortality across eight dementia types. Unsupervised clustering of mortality predictors grouped vascular dementia with depression and Lewy body dementia with frontotemporal lobar dementia. This study demonstrates the feasibility of flagging dementia patients at risk of mortality for personalized clinical management.

Effect of Comorbidities on Ten-Year Survival in Patients with Dementia

BACKGROUND

There is a verified association between comorbidity and survival in patients with dementia.

OBJECTIVE

To describe the ten-year survival probability of patients with dementia and to identify the impact of comorbidity.

METHODS

The prognostic retrospective cohort study was conducted using data from adults with dementia who had visited the outpatient departments at Maharaj Nakorn Chiang Mai hospital between 2006 and 2012. Dementia was verified in accordance with standard practice guidelines. Secondary data detailing about patient age, gender, date of dementia diagnosis and death, types of dementia, and comorbidities at the time of dementia diagnosis was obtained from electronic medical records. The association between comorbidity, patients' underlying disease at dementia diagnosis, and overall survival were analyzed using a multivariable Cox proportional hazard model adjusted for age, gender, types of dementia, and other comorbidities.

RESULTS

Of the 702 patients, 56.9% were female. Alzheimer's disease (39.6%) was the most prevalent type of dementia. Median overall survival was 6.0 years (95% CI 5.5- 6.7). The comorbidities associated with a high risk of mortality included liver disease (aHR 2.70, 95% CI 1.46- 5.00), atrial fibrillation (aHR 2.15, 95% CI 1.29- 3.58), myocardial infarction (aHR 1.55, 95% CI 1.07- 2.26), and type 2 diabetes mellitus (aHR 1.40, 95% CI 1.13- 1.74).

CONCLUSION

Overall survival rate of patients with dementia in Thailand was comparable to previous studies. Several comorbidities were associated with a ten-year survival. The prognosis of patients with dementia may be improved by appropriate care of comorbidities.

No effect of thyroid hormones on 5-year mortality in patients with subjective cognitive decline, mild cognitive disorder, and Alzheimer's disease

The present study aimed to investigate differences in circulating thyroid hormone levels, gender, education, depressive symptoms, and cognitive performance among patients with cognitive impairment, and also to examine their associations, as well as that of cognitive decline, with 5-year mortality. Between 1998 and 2017, a hospital-based, single-centre (Neurology Department of the General Hospital in Vienna, Austria), retrospective follow-up study enrolled 2102 patients with mild to severe cognitive impairment (grouped into subjective cognitive decline, mild cognitive impairment, and Alzheimer's disease). Cox proportional hazards models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs), with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), as well as to calculate stepwise adjustments for demographic variables (age, gender, and education), depressive symptoms (Geriatric Depression Scale, GDS-15), and neuropsychological abilities (four domains of a neuropsychological test battery of Vienna, NTVB). In univariate analyses, total triiodothyronine (TT3) levels differed significantly between Alzheimer's disease and mild cognitive impairment patients (p_diff  = .001). No other differences in cognitive impairment subgroups with any of the measured thyroid hormones were observed. Furthermore, in multivariate models, circulating TT3 was not associated with mortality (multivariable-adjusted HR per unit increase in TT3 = 0.56; 95% CI = 0.29-1.07). In multivariate models, we observed significantly lower 5-year mortality among women (HR = 0.56; 95% CI = 0.43-0.73) and those who scored higher on any of the four domains of the NBTV (e.g., attention and perceptual speed, HR = 0.63; 95% CI = 0.54-0.72); we also observed significantly higher 5-year mortality among patients with depressive symptoms (HR per one point score increase in GDS-15 = 1.06; 95% CI = 1.02-1.10), regardless of cognitive impairment subgroup. Among patients with various degrees of cognitive impairment, we found no associations of thyroid hormone levels with 5-year mortality. Gender, neuropsychological abilities, and depressive symptoms were each significant predictors of 5-year mortality. These results suggest that a neurocognitive test performance could serve as an important predictor of 5-year mortality among patients with cognitive impairment, although further studies with a more complete adjustment for comorbidities are needed to confirm these findings.

The Impact of Dementia on Cancer Treatment Decision-Making, Cancer Treatment, and Mortality: A Mixed Studies Review

Dementia and cancer occur commonly in older adults. Yet, little is known about the effect of dementia on cancer treatment and outcomes in patients diagnosed with cancer, and no guidelines exist. We performed a mixed studies review to assess the current knowledge and gaps on the impact of dementia on cancer treatment decision-making, cancer treatment, and mortality. A search in PubMed, Medline, and PsycINFO identified 55 studies on older adults with a dementia diagnosis before a cancer diagnosis and/or comorbid cancer and dementia published in English from January 2004 to February 2020. We described variability using range in quantitative estimates, ie, odds ratios (ORs), hazard ratios (HRs), and risk ratios (RR) when appropriate and performed narrative review of qualitative data. Patients with dementia were more likely to receive no curative treatment (including hospice or palliative care) (OR, HR, and RR range = 0.40-4.4, n = 8), while less likely to receive chemotherapy (OR and HR range = 0.11-0.68, n = 8), radiation (OR range = 0.24-0.56, n = 2), and surgery (OR range = 0.30-1.3, n = 4). Older adults with cancer and dementia had higher mortality than those with cancer alone (HR and OR range = 0.92-5.8, n = 33). Summarized findings from qualitative studies consistently revealed that clinicians, caregivers, and patients tended to prefer less aggressive care and gave higher priority to quality of life over life expectancy for those with dementia. Current practices in treatment-decision making for patients with both cancer and dementia are inconsistent. There is an urgent need for treatment guidelines for this growing patient population that considers patient and caregiver perspectives.

Five-year risk of admission to long-term care home and death for older adults given a new diagnosis of dementia: a population-based retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

After diagnosis of a health condition, information about survival and potential transition from community into institutional care can be helpful for patients and care providers. We sought to describe the association between a new diagnosis of dementia and risk of admission to a long-term care home and death at 5 years.

METHODS

We conducted a population-based retrospective cohort study using linked health administrative databases. We identified individuals aged 65 years or older, living in the community, with a first documented diagnosis of dementia between Jan. 1, 2010, and Dec. 31, 2012, in Ontario, Canada. Dementia diagnosis was captured using diagnostic codes from hospital discharges, physician billings, assessments conducted for home care and long-term care, and dispensed prescriptions for cholinesterase inhibitors. Our primary outcome measures were 5-year risk of death and placement in a long-term care home, adjusted for sociodemographic and clinical factors.

RESULTS

We identified 108 757 individuals in our study cohort. By the end of 5 years, 24.4% remained alive in the community and 20.5% were living in a long-term care home. Of the 55.1% who died, about half (27.9%) were admitted to a long-term care home before death. Three risk factors were associated with increased odds of death: older age (age ≥ 90 yr; odds ratio [OR] 9.5, 95% confidence interval [CI] 8.8-10.2 [reference: age 65-69 yr]), male sex (OR 1.7, 95% CI 1.6-1.7), and the presence of organ failure, including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (OR 1.7, 95% CI 1.7-1.8), congestive heart failure (OR 2.0, 95% CI 1.9-2.0) and renal failure (OR 1.7, 95% CI 1.6-1.8). Groups formed by combinations of these 3 factors had an observed 5-year risk of death varying between 22% and 91%.

INTERPRETATION

Among community-dwelling older adults with newly identified dementia in Ontario, the majority died or were admitted to a long-term care home within 5 years. This information may be helpful for discussions on prognosis and need for admission to long-term care.

Prognostic Awareness, Disease and Palliative Understanding Among Caregivers of Patients With Dementia

BACKGROUND

Persons with dementia (PwD) often have significant cognitive deficits and functional limitations, requiring substantial caregiver assistance. Given the high symptom burden and terminal nature of dementia, good prognostic awareness and integration of palliative care (PC) is needed.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate prognostic awareness, disease, and PC understanding among caregivers of PwD and to assess for improvements in routine care.

DESIGN

A cross-sectional study of 2 cohorts at a single-academic medical center. Surveys were mailed to 200 caregivers of PwD in 2012 (cohort 1). Surveys were sent to new subset of caregivers of PwD (n = 80) in 2018 (cohort 2) to assess trends over time.

RESULTS

A total of 154 of caregivers completed the survey (response rate 55%). Compared to 2012, a higher proportion of caregivers in 2018 reported having conversations about prognosis with PwD's physicians (25% in 2012 vs 45% in 2018; P = .027). However, a large percentage (43% in 2012 and 40% in 2018) of caregivers reported no understanding of the PwD's prognosis. Despite most stating dementia was not curable, only 39% in 2012 and 52% in 2018 (P = .015) understood that dementia was a terminal disease. In addition, only 32% in 2012 and 40% in 2018 (P = .39) felt that they were knowledgeable about PC.

CONCLUSIONS

Prognostic discussions between caregivers of PwD and the PwD's physicians may be occurring more often; however, a high percentage of caregivers report a poor understanding about the terminal nature of dementia and the role of PC.

Better quality of end-of-life care for persons with advanced dementia in nursing homes compared to hospitals: a Swedish national register study

Background

Hospitalisation of patients with advanced dementia is generally regarded as less preferable compared to care at home or in a nursing home. For patients with other diagnoses, young age has been associated with better end-of-life care. However, studies comparing the quality of palliative care for persons with advanced dementia in hospitals and nursing homes are scarce. The aim of this study was to investigate whether quality of end-of-life care for patients with dementia depends on age, gender and place of death.

Methods

The Swedish Register of Palliative Care (SRPC) was used to identify patients who died from dementia in hospitals or nursing homes during a three-year period. The likelihood of death occurring at a hospital, based on age and gender differences, was calculated. Associations between 13 end-of-life care quality indicators collected from the SRPC and age, gender and place of care were examined in a logistic regression model.

Results

Death at a hospital was associated with poorer quality of end-of-life care for 10 of the 13 measured outcomes when compared to death at a nursing home, and with better quality according to two of the outcomes. Death at a hospital was more common for men compared to women and for younger patients compared to older. Receiving fluids intravenously or via enteral tube in the last 24 h of life was strongly associated with death at a hospital. Women were more likely to have their oral health assessed and less likely to have pressure ulcers at death. Eight of 12 end-of-life care outcomes showed better results for the age group 65 to 84 years compared to those 85 years or older.

Conclusions

Death in hospitals was associated with poorer quality of end-of-life care compared to death in nursing homes. Our data support the importance of advance care planning and individual assessments in nursing homes to avoid referral to hospitals during end of life. Despite established recommendations to avoid hospitalisation if possible, there were strong associations between younger age, male gender and hospitalisation in the end of life. Further studies are needed to investigate the role of socioeconomic factors in end-of-life care for this patient group.

Predictors of Mortality in the Oldest Old Patients with Newly Diagnosed Alzheimer Disease in a Residential Aged Care Facility

BACKGROUND

In Taiwan, the causes of death and related factors in the oldest old people with Alzheimer disease (AD) are not well characterized. We investigated the factors associated with mortality in the oldest old patients with newly diagnosed AD admitted to a long-stay residential facility.

METHODS

We performed a prospective study of newly diagnosed AD patients at a veterans' home between 2012 and 2016. At admission, all eligible participants received a comprehensive geriatric assessment, including demographic variables, lifestyle habits, cognitive evaluations, medical conditions (comorbidities, Age-Adjusted Charlson Comorbidity Index score, and polypharmacy), nutritional status evaluated by the Mini Nutritional Assessment-Short Form and body mass index (BMI), and global functional status. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to evaluate the predictive values of clinical parameters for all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

The cohort comprised 84 newly diagnosed AD patients (mean age 86.6 ± 3.9 years) with a mean follow-up period of 2.1 ± 1.2 years. The overall median survival was 3.5 years from the time of AD diagnosis (95% confidence interval, 3.1-3.9 years). BMI was significantly lower in the deceased group than in the alive group (20.7 ± 2.9 vs. 22.6 ± 3.4, p = 0.023). Logistic regression demonstrated that the clinical parameters significantly associated with mortality were high global comorbidity, low nutritional status (malnutrition and underweight), and impaired physical function at the time of AD diagnosis.

CONCLUSION

Comorbidity burden, nutritional status, and physical functional status at the time of dementia diagnosis are important contributors to poor outcome in the oldest old. Efforts to control concurrent chronic disorders, nutritional interventions, and physical independency as a long-term care strategy for dementia may provide survival benefit.

Nasogastric tube feeding versus assisted hand feeding in-home healthcare older adults with severe dementia in Taiwan: a prognosis comparison

BACKGROUND

All individuals with severe dementia should be offered careful hand feeding. However, under certain circumstances, people with severe dementia have a feeding tube placed. In Taiwan, tube feeding rate in demented older home care residents is increasing; however, the benefits of tube feeding in this population remain unknown. We compared the clinical prognosis and mortality of older patients with severe dementia receiving nasogastric tube feeding (NGF) or assisted hand feeding (AHF).

METHODS

Data from the in-home healthcare system between January 1 and December 31, 2017 were analyzed to identify 169 participants over 60 years of age in this retrospective longitudinal study. All subjects with severe dementia and complete functional dependence suffered from difficulty in oral intake and required either AHF or NGF. Data were collected from both groups to analyze pneumonia, hospitalization, and mortality rates.

RESULTS

A total of 169 subjects (56 males and 113 females, aged 85.9 ± 7.5 years) were analyzed. 39 required AHF and 130 NGF. All subjects were bedridden; 129 (76%) showed Barthel index < 10. Pneumonia risk was higher in the NGF group (48%) than in the AHF group (26%, p = 0.015). After adjusting for multiple factors in the regression model, the risk of pneumonia was not significantly higher in the NGF group compared with the AHF group. One-year mortality rates in the AHF and NGF groups were 8 and 15%, respectively, and no significant difference was observed after adjustment with logistic regression (aOR = 2.38; 95% CI, 0.58-9.70). There were no significant differences in hospitalization rate and duration.

CONCLUSIONS

For older patients with dementia requiring in-home healthcare, NGF is not associated with a significantly lower risk of pneumonia than AHF. Additionally, neither mortality nor hospitalization rates decreased with NGF. On the contrary, a nonsignificant trend of increased risk of pneumonia was observed in NGF group. Therefore, the benefits of NGF are debatable in older patients with severe dementia requiring in-home healthcare. Continued careful hand feeding could be an alternative to NG feeding in patients with severe dementia. Furthermore, large-scale studies on in-home healthcare would be required to support these results.

Stratifying risk for dementia onset using large-scale electronic health record data: A retrospective cohort study

INTRODUCTION

Preventing dementia, or modifying disease course, requires identification of presymptomatic or minimally symptomatic high-risk individuals.

METHODS

We used longitudinal electronic health records from two large academic medical centers and applied a validated natural language processing tool to estimate cognitive symptomatology. We used survival analysis to examine the association of cognitive symptoms with incident dementia diagnosis during up to 8 years of follow-up.

RESULTS

Among 267,855 hospitalized patients with 1,251,858 patient years of follow-up data, 6516 (2.4%) received a new diagnosis of dementia. In competing risk regression, an increasing cognitive symptom score was associated with earlier dementia diagnosis (HR 1.63; 1.54-1.72). Similar results were observed in the second hospital system and in subgroup analysis of younger and older patients.

DISCUSSION

A cognitive symptom measure identified in discharge notes facilitated stratification of risk for dementia up to 8 years before diagnosis.