Otto AR, Eichstaedt JC. Real-world unexpected outcomes predict city-level mood states and risk-taking behavior.
PLoS One 2018;
13:e0206923. [PMID:
30485304 PMCID:
PMC6261541 DOI:
10.1371/journal.pone.0206923]
[Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/09/2018] [Accepted: 10/21/2018] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Abstract
Fluctuations in mood states are driven by unpredictable outcomes in daily life but also appear to drive consequential behaviors such as risk-taking. However, our understanding of the relationships between unexpected outcomes, mood, and risk-taking behavior has relied primarily upon constrained and artificial laboratory settings. Here we examine, using naturalistic datasets, how real-world unexpected outcomes predict mood state changes observable at the level of a city, in turn predicting changes in gambling behavior. By analyzing day-to-day mood language extracted from 5.2 million location-specific and public Twitter posts or 'tweets', we examine how real-world 'prediction errors'-local outcomes that deviate positively from expectations-predict day-to-day mood states observable at the level of a city. These mood states in turn predicted increased per-person lottery gambling rates, revealing how interplay between prediction errors, moods, and risky decision-making unfolds in the real world. Our results underscore how social media and naturalistic datasets can uniquely allow us to understand consequential psychological phenomena.
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