The alternative prey hypothesis revisited: Still valid for willow ptarmigan population dynamics

How do microtine rodent abundance, snow and landscape parameters influence pine marten Martes martes population dynamics?

The pine marten (Martes martes) occupies the northernmost extent of its distribution in Norway, where microtine rodents are an important food item. The relationship between microtine rodent abundance and pine marten population dynamics is not well understood. In this paper, we examined this relationship and tested if environmental factors (e.g. snow depth, elevation, mature spruce forest density and agricultural land density) modulate pine marten population dynamics. We calculated pine marten abundance indices using data collected from 593 unique snow transects surveyed between 2003 and 2014 in Hedmark, Norway. We employed a Partial Rate Correlation Function to identify potential cyclicity in pine marten populations. We did not observe any cyclical patterns in pine marten populations within our short time series. Instead, their population appeared to be directly density-dependent. Although the population growth rate of pine marten tended to increase with increasing elevation, it was not affected by individual variables including a microtine rodent abundance index and snow depth. However, the annual growth rate of pine marten populations was positively affected by the interaction between the microtine rodent abundance index and increasing elevation. Pine marten abundance increased with microtine rodent abundance, elevation, snow depth and density of mature spruce forest, but decreased with increasing agricultural land density. Pine martens are opportunistic diet generalists that can switch between prey and cache food for later consumption. They are also strongly territorial with delayed implantation and are slow to respond to environmental changes due to their relatively low reproductive potential. These life-history traits may mitigate the effects of fluctuating microtine rodent abundance on pine marten reproduction and survival. Nevertheless, our findings suggest that microtine rodents still serve as important prey which can influence the population dynamics of pine martens in higher elevation habitats where alternative prey may be less available.

Pine marten predation of common goldeneye nests: Effects of cavity age and habitat override any effect of microtine rodent abundance

According to the alternative prey hypothesis (APH), the temporal synchrony in population fluctuations of microtine rodents and other small herbivores in boreal areas is caused by generalist predators with numerical and functional response to microtines, leading to an increased predation of prey alternative to microtines in the low phase of the microtine population fluctuations. The tree-climbing pine marten (Martes martes) is a food generalist that includes bird eggs among its alternative prey, also eggs of the cavity-nesting common goldeneye (Bucephala clangula). We used long-term data to test whether pine marten predation of goldeneye eggs in nest boxes varied as predicted by the APH. As a measure of microtine abundance at the time of nesting, we applied two measures. First, for goldeneye nests located <40 km from our microtine trapping site, we applied the trapping index of microtine rodents. Second, to also use data from nests located >40 km from our microtine trapping site, and from nests in years when trapping was not conducted, we used two proxies for the microtine abundance: whether boreal owls (Aegolius funereus) nested in any of our boxes <40 km from each goldeneye nest and the average clutch size of these boreal owls. The probability of predation of a goldeneye nest was independent of the microtine trapping index and independent of the proxies for microtine abundance. However, it increased with cavity age, taken as the number of nesting seasons elapsed since the actual nest box was installed, and declined with distance from habitat with forest canopy. The effect of cavity age confirms that the long-term spatial memory of pine marten is an important factor in the pattern of its predation on nests in tree cavities.

Annual variation in breeding success in boreal forest grouse: Four decades of monitoring reveals bottom-up drivers to be more important than predation

Knowledge of the temporal variation in reproductive success and its key driving factors is crucial in predicting animal population persistence. Few studies have examined the effects of a range of explanatory factors operating simultaneously on the same population over a long period. Based on 41 years of monitoring (1979-2019), we tested prevailing hypotheses about drivers of annual variation in breeding success in two sympatric species of boreal forest grouse-the capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus) and the black grouse (T. tetrix)-in a 45 km2 boreal forest landscape. From counts in early August, we measured breeding success (chicks/hen) along with potential determining factors. We formulated five main hypotheses on causes of variation (hen condition, chick weather, chick food, predation, demographic characteristics) and derived 13 associated explanatory variables for analysis. We first tested the five hypotheses separately and then used model selection (AICc) to rank the best predictive models irrespective of hypotheses. Lastly, we used path analysis to illuminate potential causal relationships. Barring demographic characteristics, all hypotheses were supported, most strongly for chick food and predation. Among predictor variables, chick food (insect larvae and bilberry fruit crops), vole and fox abundances, the winter-NAO index, and temperature after hatching, had the strongest effect sizes in both species. Precipitation after hatching had no detectable effect. Model selection indicated bottom-up factors to be more important than predation, but confounding complicated interpretation. Path analysis suggested that the high explanatory power of bilberry fruiting was due not only to its direct positive effect on chick food quality but also to an indirect positive effect on vole abundance, which buffers predation. The two components of breeding success-proportion of hens with broods and number of chicks per brood-were uncorrelated, the former having the strongest effect. The two components had different ecological correlates that often varied asynchronously, resulting in overall breeding success fluctuating around low to moderate levels. Our study highlights the complexity of key explanatory drivers and the importance of considering multiple hypotheses of breeding success. Although chick food appeared to equal or surpass predation in explaining the annual variation in breeding success, predation may still be the overall limiting factor. Comparative and experimental studies of confounded variables (bilberry fruiting, voles, and larvae) are needed to disentangle causes of variation in breeding success of boreal forest grouse.

The abundance of small mammals is positively linked to survival from nest depredation but negatively linked to local recruitment of a ground nesting precocial bird

Generalist predators using small mammals as their primary prey are suggested to shift hunting alternative prey such as bird nests, when small mammals are in short supply (the alternative prey hypothesis, APH). Nest survival and survival of young individuals should be positively linked to small mammal abundance and negatively linked to predator abundance, but little information exists from survival of chicks, especially until recruitment. We test these predictions of the APH using 13 years (2002-2014) of life history data from a ground nesting shorebird breeding on coastal meadows. We use small mammal abundance in the previous autumn as a proxy for spring predator abundance, mainly of mammalian predators. We examine whether small mammal abundance in the spring and previous autumn explain annual variation in nest survival from depredation and local recruitment of the southern dunlin Calidris alpina schinzii. As predicted by the APH, survival from nest predation was positively linked to spring small mammal abundance and negatively linked to autumn small mammal abundance. Importantly, local recruitment showed opposite responses. This counterintuitive result may be explained by density-dependent survival. When nest depredation rates are low, predators may show stronger numerical and functional responses to high shorebird chick abundance on coastal meadows, whereas in years of high nest depredation, few hatching chicks lure fewer predators. The opposite effects on nest and local recruitment demonstrate the diverse mechanisms by which population size variation in primary prey can affect dynamics of alternative prey populations.

Interspecific coprophagia by wild red foxes: DNA metabarcoding reveals a potentially widespread form of commensalism among animals

Vertebrate animals are known to consume other species' faeces, yet the role of such coprophagy in species dynamics remains unknown, not least due to the methodological challenges of documenting it. In a large-scale metabarcoding study of red fox and pine marten scats, we document a high occurrence of domestic dog DNA in red fox scats and investigate if it can be attributed to interspecific coprophagia. We tested whether experimental artifacts or other sources of DNA could account for dog DNA, regressed dog occurrence in the diet of fox against that of the fox's main prey, short-tailed field voles, and consider whether predation or scavenging could explain the presence of dog DNA. Additionally, we determined the calorific value of dog faeces through calorimetric explosion. The high occurrence of dog DNA in the diet of fox, the timing of its increase, and the negative relationship between dog and the fox's main prey, point to dog faeces as the source of DNA in fox scats. Dog faeces being highly calorific, we found that foxes, but not pine martens, regularly exploit them, seemingly as an alternative resource to fluctuating prey. Scattered accounts from the literature may suggest that interspecific coprophagia is a potentially frequent and widespread form of interaction among vertebrates. However, further work should address its prevalence in other systems and the implications for ecological communities. Tools such as metabarcoding offer a way forward.

Predation of boreal owl nests by pine martens in the boreal forest does not vary as predicted by the alternative prey hypothesis

The alternative prey hypothesis (APH) states that temporally synchronous population fluctuations of microtine rodents and other small herbivores are caused by generalist predators that show functional and numerical responses to the abundance of microtines. This would lead to an increased predation of alternative prey in the low phase of the microtine population fluctuations. One candidate for such a predator is the tree-climbing pine marten (Martes martes), which includes bird eggs in its diet, among them eggs of the cavity-nesting boreal owl (Aegolius funereus). I used long-term data to test whether pine marten predation of boreal owl eggs in nest boxes varied as predicted by the APH. The probability of predation of owl nests situated < 45 km from a site where microtines were trapped in spring during four decades increased with microtine trapping index, which is opposite to the prediction from the APH. As the data set was limited to one nest per box, I extended it spatially and temporally using the clutch size of each boreal owl nest as a proxy for the actual microtine abundance at the site. The probability of nest predation increased with clutch size. However, the effects of microtine index and owl clutch size became non-significant when I controlled for habitat, and in particular cavity age, which had an overriding effect. The increase in predation probability with cavity age suggests that the long-term spatial memory of pine marten is an important factor in the pattern of its nest predation in tree cavities.

Small rodent cycles influence interactions among predators in a boreal forest ecosystem

Cyclic fluctuations of prey have profound effects on the functioning of ecosystems, for example, by changing the dynamics, behavior, and intraguild interactions of predators. The aim of this study was to assess the effect of rodent cyclic fluctuations in the interspecific interactions of a guild of small- and medium-sized predators: red fox (Vulpes vulpes), pine marten (Martes martes), and weasels (Mustela erminea and Mustela nivalis) in the boreal ecosystem. We analyzed eight years (2007–2014) of snow tracking data from southeastern Norway using structural equation models to assess hypothesized networks of causal relationships. Our results show that fluctuations in rodent abundance alter the strength of predator’s interactions, as well as the effect of determinant environmental variables. Pine marten and weasel abundances were positively associated with rodent population growth rate, but not red fox abundance. All predators were positively associated with each other; however, the association between red fox and the other predators weakened when rodents increased. Rodent fluctuations had variable effects on the habitat use of the predators. The presence of agricultural land was important for all predators, but this importance weakened for the mustelids as rodent abundance increased. We discuss the shifting role of interference and exploitative competition as possible mechanisms behind these patterns. Overall, we highlight the importance of accounting for the dynamics of prey resources when studying interspecific interactions among predators. Additionally, we demonstrate the importance of monitoring the predator populations in order to anticipate undesirable outcomes such as increased generalist predator abundances to the detriment of specialists.

Lethal interactions among forest-grouse predators are numerous, motivated by hunger and carcasses, and their impacts determined by the demographic value of the victims

New vertebrate communities are emerging in Europe following the recovery of multiple native predators to highly anthropized landscapes where predator control is still prevalent. While the lack of reference points for these communities creates novel challenges for conservationists and wildlife managers, they also provide opportunities to further our understanding of species interactions. Despite a growing body of evidence, many aspects of interactions among predators remain poorly understood, impairing our ability to anticipate the effects of such changes in predator communities. Through a systematic literature review, we gathered all the available evidence concerning the existence, strength, and demographic impacts of lethal predator interactions among forest-grouse predators in Europe. We found a highly interconnected predator community, with 44 pairwise lethal interactions among 12 taxa. Three of these resulted in some degree of population suppression of the victim, while another three did not. However, most interactions (38) have not been evaluated for population suppression. Additionally, we highlight how predators interact simultaneously with a large range of other predators and identified at least two further taxa possibly suppressed through the combined impacts of multiple predators. We propose that interactions causing demographic suppression are characterized by impacts on individuals with high survival elasticity and that they are motivated by food limitation and additionally, in mammals, by competition for carcasses. Predator interactions, and our still poor understanding of them, introduce large uncertainties to conservation actions based on the management of predator abundances, which should be carefully evaluated.

Impacts of predator-mediated interactions along a climatic gradient on the population dynamics of an alpine bird

According to classic theory, species' population dynamics and distributions are less influenced by species interactions under harsh climatic conditions compared to under more benign climatic conditions. In alpine and boreal ecosystems in Fennoscandia, the cyclic dynamics of rodents strongly affect many other species, including ground-nesting birds such as ptarmigan. According to the ‘alternative prey hypothesis’ (APH), the densities of ground-nesting birds and rodents are positively associated due to predator–prey dynamics and prey-switching. However, it remains unclear how the strength of these predator-mediated interactions change along a climatic harshness gradient in comparison with the effects of climatic variation. We built a hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate the sensitivity of ptarmigan populations to interannual variation in climate and rodent occurrence across Norway during 2007–2017. Ptarmigan abundance was positively linked with rodent occurrence, consistent with the APH. Moreover, we found that the link between ptarmigan abundance and rodent dynamics was strongest in colder regions. Our study highlights how species interactions play an important role in population dynamics of species at high latitudes and suggests that they can become even more important in the most climatically harsh regions.

The impact of human land use and landscape productivity on population dynamics of red fox in southeastern Norway

In the boreal forest, the red fox (Vulpes vulpes) is a key species due to its many strong food web linkages and its exploitation of niches that form in the wake of human activities. Recent altitudinal range expansion and a perceived population increase have become topics of concern in Scandinavia, primarily due to the potential impacts of red foxes on both prey and competitor species. However, despite it being a common species, there is still surprisingly little knowledge about the temporal and spatial characteristics of its population dynamics. In this study, we synthesized 12 years of snow-track transect data covering a 27,000-km2 study area to identify factors associated with red fox distribution and population dynamics. Using Bayesian hierarchical regression models, we evaluated the relationships of landscape productivity and climate gradients as well as anthropogenic subsidies with an index of red fox population size and growth rates. We found that landscapes with high human settlement density and large amounts of gut piles from moose (Alces alces) hunting were associated with higher red fox abundances. Population dynamics were characterized by direct density-dependent growth, and the structure of density dependence was best explained by the amount of agricultural land in the landscape. Population equilibrium levels increased, and populations were more stable, in areas with a higher presence of agricultural lands, whereas density-dependent population growth was more prominent in areas of low agricultural presence. We conclude that human land use is a dominant driver of red fox population dynamics in the boreal forest. We encourage further research focusing on contrasting effects of anthropogenic subsidization on predator population carrying capacities and temporal stability, and potential impacts on prey dynamics.