Options for calibrating CERES-maize genotype specific parameters under data-scarce environments

From leaf to multiscale models of photosynthesis: applications and challenges for crop improvement

To keep up with the growth of human population and to circumvent deleterious effects of global climate change, it is essential to enhance crop yield to achieve higher production. Here we review mathematical models of oxygenic photosynthesis that are extensively used, and discuss in depth a subset that accounts for diverse approaches providing solutions to our objective. These include models (1) to study different ways to enhance photosynthesis, such as fine-tuning antenna size, photoprotection and electron transport; (2) to bioengineer carbon metabolism; and (3) to evaluate the interactions between the process of photosynthesis and the seasonal crop dynamics, or those that have included statistical whole-genome prediction methods to quantify the impact of photosynthesis traits on the improvement of crop yield. We conclude by emphasizing that the results obtained in these studies clearly demonstrate that mathematical modelling is a key tool to examine different approaches to improve photosynthesis for better productivity, while effective multiscale crop models, especially those that also include remote sensing data, are indispensable to verify different strategies to obtain maximized crop yields.

Impact analysis of moisture stress on growth and yield of cotton using DSSAT-CROPGRO-cotton model under semi-arid climate

Adequate soil moisture around the root zone of the crops is essential for optimal plant growth and productivity throughout the crop season, whereas excessive as well as deficient moisture is usually detrimental. A field experiment was conducted on cotton (Gossipium hirsuttum) with three water regimes (viz. well-watered (control); rainfed after one post-sowing irrigation (1-POSI) and rainfed after two post-sowing irrigations (2-POSI)) in main plots and application of eight osmoprotectants in sub plots of Split plot design to quantify the loss of seed cotton yield (SCY) under high and mild moisture stress. The DSSAT-CROPGRO-cotton model was calibrated to validate the response of cotton crop to water stress. Results elucidated that in comparison of well watered (control) crop, 1-POSI and 2-POSI reduced plant height by 13.5-28.4% and lower leaf area index (LAI) by 21.6-37.6%. Pooled analysis revealed that SCY under control was higher by 1,127 kg ha-1 over 1-POSI and 597 kg ha-1 than 2-POSI. The DSSAT-CROPGRO-cotton model fairly simulated the cotton yield as evidenced by good accuracy (d-stat ≥ 0.92) along with lower root mean square error (RMSE) of ≤183.2 kg ha-1; mean absolute percent error (MAPE) ≤6.5% under different irrigation levels. Similarly, simulated and observed biomass also exhibited good agreement with ≥0.98 d-stat; ≤533.7 kg ha-1 RMSE; and ≤4.6% MAPE. The model accurately simulated the periodical LAI, biomass and soil water dynamics as affected by varying water regimes in conformity with periodical observations. Both the experimental and the simulated results confirmed the decline of SCY with any degree of water stress. Thus, a well calibrated DSSAT-CROPGRO-cotton model may be successfully used for estimating the crop performance under varying hydro-climatic conditions.

Heat stress may cause a significant reduction of rice yield in China under future climate scenarios

Extreme heat events have become more frequent and severe under climate change and seriously threaten rice growth. Most existing crop models tend to underestimate the impacts of heat stress on rice yields. Heat stress modules in crop models have not been extensively explored, particularly on a large scale. This study modeled rice growth under heat stress at the flowering and filling stages through two heat stress models which coupled into the CERES-Rice model. We evaluated the advanced model with provincial statistics and Gridded Observed Rice Yield. Our improved CERES-Rice model produced more accurate estimates on rice yield than the original model evidenced by an increased correlation coefficient (R) of 12.72% and d-index of 0.02%. The RMSE and MAE decreased by 5.94% and 6.01%, respectively. Most pseudo positive correlations between rice yield and the number of heat days were corrected to the negative ones by the improved model. The future projections from the improved model signifies multi-model ensemble yield projection without CO₂ effect (MME-I-NOCO₂) has an apparent fall from 2020 to 2099 under RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 with the decreasing percentages of 6%, 14%, and 37%, respectively, whereas the decreasing trend (12%) only occurs under RCP8.5 with CO₂ effect (MME-I-CO₂). The apparently decreasing trends of yield projection from MME-I-NOCO₂ will occur in most rice-planted regions of China with the decreasing rate < 50 kg/ha/a especially in the central-south and southern cropping regions, and this decreasing trend will be slowed down for MME-I-CO₂. Relative to rice yield of historical period, rice yield variations of MME-I-NOCO₂ for different growing seasons show a downward trend with the decrease of approximately 54%, 60%, and 43%, respectively. Our study highlights the importance of modeling crop yields under heat stress to food security, agricultural adaptation and mitigation to climate change.

CERES-Maize model for simulating genotype-by-environment interaction of maize and its stability in the dry and wet savannas of Nigeria

When properly calibrated and evaluated, dynamic crop simulation models can provide insights into the different components of genotype by environment interactions (GEIs). Modelled outputs could be used to complement data from multi-environment trials. Field experiments were conducted in the rainy and dry seasons of 2015 and 2016 across four locations in maize growing regions of Northern Nigeria using 16 maize varieties planted under near-optimal conditions of moisture and soil nitrogen. The CERES-Maize model was calibrated using data from three locations and two seasons (rainy and dry) and evaluated using data from one location and two seasons all in 2015. Observed data from the four locations and two seasons in 2016 was used to create eight different environments. Two profile pits were dug in each location and were used separately in the simulations for each environment to provide replicated data for stability analysis in a combined ANOVA. The effects of the environment, genotype and GEI were highly significant (p = 0.001) for both observed and simulated grain yields. The environment explained 67 % and 64 % of the variations in observed and simulated grain yields respectively. The variance component of GEI (13 % for observed and 15 % for simulated) were lower but still considerable when compared to that of genotypes (19 % for observed and 21 % for simulated). From the stability analysis of the observed and simulated grain yields using six different stability models, three models (ASV, Ecovalence, and Sigma) ranked Ife Hybrid as the most stable variety. The slope of the regression (bi) model ranked Sammaz 11 as the most stable variety, while the Shukla model ranked Sammaz 28 as the most stable variety. Long-term seasonal analysis with the CERES-Maize model revealed that early and intermediate maturing varieties produce high yields in both wet and dry savannas, early and extra-early varieties produce high yields only in the dry savannas, while late maturing varieties produce high yields only in the wet savannas. When properly calibrated and evaluated, the CERES-Maize model can be used to generate data for GEI and stability studies of maize genotype in the absence of observed field data.