Online interest regarding violent attacks, gun control, and gun purchase: A causal analysis

Polarization and trust in the evolution of vaccine discourse on Twitter during COVID-19

Trust in vaccination is eroding, and attitudes about vaccination have become more polarized. This is an observational study of Twitter analyzing the impact that COVID-19 had on vaccine discourse. We identify the actors, the language they use, how their language changed, and what can explain this change. First, we find that authors cluster into several large, interpretable groups, and that the discourse was greatly affected by American partisan politics. Over the course of our study, both Republicans and Democrats entered the vaccine conversation in large numbers, forming coalitions with Antivaxxers and public health organizations, respectively. After the pandemic was officially declared, the interactions between these groups increased. Second, we show that the moral and non-moral language used by the various communities converged in interesting and informative ways. Finally, vector autoregression analysis indicates that differential responses to public health measures are likely part of what drove this convergence. Taken together, our results suggest that polarization around vaccination discourse in the context of COVID-19 was ultimately driven by a trust-first dynamic of political engagement.

Attention and counter-framing in the Black Lives Matter movement on Twitter

The social media platform Twitter platform has played a crucial role in the Black Lives Matter (BLM) movement. The immediate, flexible nature of tweets plays a crucial role both in spreading information about the movement's aims and in organizing individual protests. Twitter has also played an important role in the right-wing reaction to BLM, providing a means to reframe and recontextualize activists' claims in a more sinister light. The ability to bring about social change depends on the balance of these two forces, and in particular which side can capture and maintain sustained attention. The present study examines 2 years worth of tweets about BLM (about 118 million in total). Timeseries analysis reveals that activists are better at mobilizing rapid attention, whereas right-wing accounts show a pattern of moderate but more sustained activity driven by reaction to political opponents. Topic modeling reveals differences in how different political groups talk about BLM. Most notably, the murder of George Floyd appears to have solidified a right-wing counter-framing of protests as arising from dangerous "terrorist" actors. The study thus sheds light on the complex network and rhetorical effects that drive the struggle for online attention to the BLM movement.

Group-level human values estimated with web search data and archival data explain the geographic variation in COVID-19 severity in the United States

OBJECTIVES

Personal Focus values (PF = Openness to change values + Self-enhancement values) motivate self-centred behaviours, and Social Focus values (SF = Conservation values + Self-transcendence values) promote self-sacrificial counterparts. This research investigated how a state-level PF-SF value-continuum would explain the geographic variation in COVID-19 severity in the United States.

DESIGN

This research estimated state-level values by Google search data (from 2004 to 2019) on value-related words (e.g. family for conservation values) (Study 1a) and archival indicators (e.g. gun ownership rate for security values) (Study 1b). COVID-19 severity was measured by shorter time delay of first documented cases, shorter overall doubling times, higher reproductive ratio and higher case fatality ratio. Hierarchical and multilevel analyses examined how state-level values would predict COVID-19 severity across U.S. states (Studies 1a and 1b) and 3,135 counties (Study 2).

RESULTS

State-level analyses accounting for spatial autocorrelation and covariates (e.g. COVID-19 testing rate, airport traffic, personality, etc.) revealed that the PF-SF value-continuums measured with different methods positively and significantly predicted COVID-19 severity, and the effects of state-level values on county-level COVID-19 severity were significant when county- and state-level covariates were controlled.

CONCLUSION

Social focus values may mitigate the devastating effect of COVID-19 in the United States.

Internet search patterns reveal firearm sales, policies, and deaths

Firearm-related violence is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality and is at the center of a major public health and policy debate in the United States. Despite the critical role of data in informing this debate, accurate and comprehensive data on firearm sales and ownership is not readily available. In this study, we evaluate the potential of using firearm-related internet search queries as a complementary, freely available, and near-real-time data source for tracking firearm sales and ownership that enables analysis at finer geographic and temporal scales. (Here, we examine data by state and by month to compare with other data sources, but search engine volume can be analyzed by city and by the week or by day). We validate search query volume against available data on background checks in all 50 US states, and find that they are highly correlated over time (Pearson’s r = 0.96, Spearman’s ρ = 0.94) and space (Pearson’s r = 0.78, Spearman’s ρ = 0.76). We find that stratifying this analysis by gun type (long-gun vs. handgun) increases this correlation dramatically, across both time and space. We also find a positive association between firearm-related search query volume and firearm-related mortality (Pearson’s r = 0.87, Spearman’s ρ = 0.90), and a negative association with the strength of state-level firearm control policies (Pearson’s r = −0.82, Spearman’s ρ = −0.83). Based on these findings, we propose a framework for prospective surveillance that incorporates firearm-related internet search volume as a useful complementary data source to inform the public health policy debate on this issue.

Public interest in gun control in the USA

To characterise public interest in gun control in the USA using internet search queries, we undertook a cross-sectional study of the relative popularity Google Trends searchers for 'Gun Control', 'Second Amendment', 'National Rifle Association' and 'Mass Shooting' from May 2015 to December 2018. 740 weeks of data were queried. Graphed data revealed nine major inflection points. Seven of the nine (78%) major inflection points were associated with mass shootings, while two of the nine (22%) were related to political events by either the president of the USA or a presidential candidate. Our exploration of Google Trends shows the frequency of national searches related to gun control peaks with mass shootings over a 1-2-week period and then stabilises to nominal relative popularity thereafter suggesting a need to engage the public on gun control during 'trough' periods in order to sustain national interest and dialogue.