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Wen X, Wang Y, Shao Z. The spatiotemporal trend of human brucellosis in China and driving factors using interpretability analysis. Sci Rep 2024; 14:4880. [PMID: 38418566 PMCID: PMC10901783 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-55034-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/23/2023] [Accepted: 02/19/2024] [Indexed: 03/01/2024] Open
Abstract
Human brucellosis has reemerged in China, with a distinct change in its geographical distribution. The incidence of human brucellosis has significantly risen in inland regions of China. To gain insights into epidemic characteristics and identify factors influencing the geographic spread of human brucellosis, our study utilized the Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm and interpretable machine learning techniques. The results showed a consistent upward trend in the incidence of human brucellosis, with a significant increase of 8.20% from 2004 to 2021 (95% CI: 1.70, 15.10). The northern region continued to face a serious human situation, with a gradual upward trend. Meanwhile, the western and southern regions have experienced a gradual spread of human brucellosis, encompassing all regions of China over the past decade. Further analysis using Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) demonstrated that higher Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita and increased funding for education have the potential to reduce the spread. Conversely, the expansion of human brucellosis showed a positive correlation with bed availability per 1000 individuals, humidity, railway mileage, and GDP. These findings strongly suggest that socioeconomic factors play a more significant role in the spread of human brucellosis than other factors.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiaohui Wen
- Department of Epidemiology, Air Force Medical University, Xi'an, 710000, China
| | - Yun Wang
- Central Sterile Services Department, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, 710000, China
| | - Zhongjun Shao
- Department of Epidemiology, Air Force Medical University, Xi'an, 710000, China.
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Chen H, Lin MX, Wang LP, Huang YX, Feng Y, Fang LQ, Wang L, Song HB, Wang LG. Driving role of climatic and socioenvironmental factors on human brucellosis in China: machine-learning-based predictive analyses. Infect Dis Poverty 2023; 12:36. [PMID: 37046326 PMCID: PMC10091610 DOI: 10.1186/s40249-023-01087-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/27/2022] [Accepted: 03/16/2023] [Indexed: 04/14/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Brucellosis is a common zoonotic infectious disease in China. This study aimed to investigate the incidence trends of brucellosis in China, construct an optimal prediction model, and analyze the driving role of climatic factors for human brucellosis. METHODS Using brucellosis incidence, and the socioeconomic and climatic data for 2014-2020 in China, we performed spatiotemporal analyses and calculated correlations with brucellosis incidence in China, developed and compared a series of regression and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average X (SARIMAX) models for brucellosis prediction based on socioeconomic and climatic data, and analyzed the relationship between extreme weather conditions and brucellosis incidence using copula models. RESULTS In total, 327,456 brucellosis cases were reported in China in 2014-2020 (monthly average of 3898 cases). The incidence of brucellosis was distinctly seasonal, with a high incidence in spring and summer and an average annual peak in May. The incidence rate was highest in the northern regions' arid and continental climatic zones (1.88 and 0.47 per million people, respectively) and lowest in the tropics (0.003 per million people). The incidence of brucellosis showed opposite trends of decrease and increase in northern and southern China, respectively, with an overall severe epidemic in northern China. Most regression models using socioeconomic and climatic data cannot predict brucellosis incidence. The SARIMAX model was suitable for brucellosis prediction. There were significant negative correlations between the proportion of extreme weather values for both high sunshine and high humidity and the incidence of brucellosis as follows: high sunshine, [Formula: see text] = -0.59 and -0.69 in arid and temperate zones; high humidity, [Formula: see text] = -0.62, -0.64, and -0.65 in arid, temperate, and tropical zones. CONCLUSIONS Significant seasonal and climatic zone differences were observed for brucellosis incidence in China. Sunlight, humidity, and wind speed significantly influenced brucellosis. The SARIMAX model performed better for brucellosis prediction than did the regression model. Notably, high sunshine and humidity values in extreme weather conditions negatively affect brucellosis. Brucellosis should be managed according to the "One Health" concept.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hui Chen
- Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Chinese People's Liberation Army, 20 Dong-Da-Jie Street, Fengtai District, Beijing, 100071, China
| | - Meng-Xuan Lin
- Academy of Military Medical Sciences, Academy of Military Science of Chinese People's Liberation Army, 27 Taiping Road, Haidian District, Beijing, 100036, China
| | - Li-Ping Wang
- Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, No. 155 Changbai Road, Changping District, Beijing, 102206, China
| | - Yin-Xiang Huang
- School of Biological Science and Medical Engineering, Beihang University, 37 Xueyuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing, 100191, China
| | - Yao Feng
- Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Li-Qun Fang
- State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, 20 Dong-Da Street, Fengtai District, Beijing, 100071, China
| | - Lei Wang
- Academy of Military Medical Sciences, Academy of Military Science of Chinese People's Liberation Army, 27 Taiping Road, Haidian District, Beijing, 100036, China.
| | - Hong-Bin Song
- Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Chinese People's Liberation Army, 20 Dong-Da-Jie Street, Fengtai District, Beijing, 100071, China.
| | - Li-Gui Wang
- Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Chinese People's Liberation Army, 20 Dong-Da-Jie Street, Fengtai District, Beijing, 100071, China.
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Qin Y, Pei X, Li M, Chai Y. Transmission dynamics of brucellosis with patch model: Shanxi and Hebei Provinces as cases. MATHEMATICAL BIOSCIENCES AND ENGINEERING : MBE 2022; 19:6396-6414. [PMID: 35603408 DOI: 10.3934/mbe.2022300] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/23/2023]
Abstract
Brucellosis is a zoonotic disease caused by Brucella, and it is an important infectious disease all over the world. The prevalence of brucellosis in the Chinese mainland has some spatial characteristics besides the temporal trend in recent years. Due to the large-scale breeding of sheep and the frequent transportation of sheep in various regions, brucellosis spreads wantonly in pastoral areas, and human brucellosis spreads from traditional pastoral areas and semi-pastoral areas in the north to non-pastoral areas with low incidence in the south. In order to study the influence of sheep immigration on the epidemic transmission, a patch dynamics model was established. In each patch, the sub-model was composed of humans, sheep and Brucella. The basic reproduction number, disease-free equilibrium and positive equilibrium of the model were discussed. On the other hand, taking Shanxi Province and Hebei Province as examples, we carried out numerical simulations. The results show that the basic reproduction numbers of Shanxi Province and Hebei Province are 0.7497 and 0.5022, respectively, which indicates that the current brucellosis in the two regions has been effectively controlled. To reduce brucellosis faster in the two provinces, there should be a certain degree of sheep immigration from high-infection area to low-infection areas, and reduce the immigration of sheep from low-infection areas to high-infection areas.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yaoyao Qin
- School of Mathematics, Taiyuan University of Technology, Taiyuan 030024, China
| | - Xin Pei
- School of Mathematics, Taiyuan University of Technology, Taiyuan 030024, China
| | - Mingtao Li
- School of Mathematics, Taiyuan University of Technology, Taiyuan 030024, China
| | - Yuzhen Chai
- School of Mathematics, Taiyuan University of Technology, Taiyuan 030024, China
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Liang D, Liu D, Yang M, Wang X, Li Y, Guo W, Du M, Wang W, Xue M, Wu J, Cui B, Yin S, Wang R, Li S. Spatiotemporal distribution of human brucellosis in Inner Mongolia, China, in 2010-2015, and influencing factors. Sci Rep 2021; 11:24213. [PMID: 34930982 PMCID: PMC8688419 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-03723-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/06/2019] [Accepted: 09/16/2020] [Indexed: 12/03/2022] Open
Abstract
Human brucellosis is caused by Brucella species and remains a major burden in both human and domesticated animal populations, especially in Inner Mongolia, China. The aims of this study were to analyze the spatiotemporal trends in human brucellosis in Inner Mongolia during 2010 to 2015, to explore the factors affecting the incidence of brucellosis. The results showed that the annual incidence was 29.68–77.67 per 100,000, and peaked from March to June. The majority of human brucellosis was male farmers and herdsmen, aged 40–59 years. The high-risk areas were mainly Xilin Gol League and Hulunbeier City. The incidence of human brucellosis in Inner Mongolia decreased during 2010 to 2015, although the middle and eastern regions were still high-risk areas. The regions with larger number of sheep and cattle, lower GDP per capita, less number of hospital beds, higher wind speed, lower mean temperature more likely to become high-risk areas of human brucellosis.
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Affiliation(s)
- Danyan Liang
- School of Public Health, Inner Mongolia Medical University, Hohhot, Inner Mongolia, China.,Inner Mongolia People's Hospital, Hohhot, China
| | - Dan Liu
- School of Public Health, Inner Mongolia Medical University, Hohhot, Inner Mongolia, China.,Department of Medicine, Hetao College, Bayan Nur, China
| | - Min Yang
- School of Public Health, Inner Mongolia Medical University, Hohhot, Inner Mongolia, China
| | - Xuemei Wang
- School of Public Health, Inner Mongolia Medical University, Hohhot, Inner Mongolia, China.
| | - Yunpeng Li
- Inner Mongolia Ecology and Agrometeorology Center, Hohhot, China
| | - Weidong Guo
- Inner Mongolia Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hohhot, China
| | - Maolin Du
- School of Public Health, Inner Mongolia Medical University, Hohhot, Inner Mongolia, China
| | - Wenrui Wang
- Inner Mongolia Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hohhot, China
| | - Mingming Xue
- School of Basic Medicine, Inner Mongolia Medical University, Hohhot, China
| | - Jing Wu
- National Center for Chronic and Non-Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Buyun Cui
- National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Shaohua Yin
- School of Public Health, Inner Mongolia Medical University, Hohhot, Inner Mongolia, China
| | - Ruiqi Wang
- School of Public Health, Inner Mongolia Medical University, Hohhot, Inner Mongolia, China
| | - Shiyuan Li
- School of Public Health, Inner Mongolia Medical University, Hohhot, Inner Mongolia, China
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Sun S, Jiang H, Li Q, Liu Y, Gao Q, Liu W, Qin Y, Feng Y, Peng X, Xu G, Shen Q, Fan X, Ding J, Zhu L. Safety and Transcriptome Analysis of Live Attenuated Brucella Vaccine Strain S2 on Non-pregnant Cynomolgus Monkeys Without Abortive Effect on Pregnant Cynomolgus Monkeys. Front Vet Sci 2021; 8:641022. [PMID: 33768120 PMCID: PMC7985263 DOI: 10.3389/fvets.2021.641022] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/13/2020] [Accepted: 02/05/2021] [Indexed: 12/27/2022] Open
Abstract
Brucellosis, caused by Brucella spp., is an important zoonotic disease leading to enormous economic losses in livestock, posing a great threat to public health worldwide. The live attenuated Brucella suis (B. suis) strain S2, a safe and effective vaccine, is widely used in animals in China. However, S2 vaccination in animals may raise debates and concerns in terms of safety to primates, particularly humans. In this study, we used cynomolgus monkey as an animal model to evaluate the safety of the S2 vaccine strain on primates. In addition, we performed transcriptome analysis to determine gene expression profiling on cynomolgus monkeys immunized with the S2 vaccine. Our results suggested that the S2 vaccine was safe for cynomolgus monkeys. The transcriptome analysis identified 663 differentially expressed genes (DEGs), of which 348 were significantly upregulated and 315 were remarkably downregulated. The Gene Ontology (GO) classification and the Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) pathway analysis indicated that these DEGs were involved in various biological processes (BPs), including the chemokine signaling pathway, actin cytoskeleton regulation, the defense response, immune system processing, and the type-I interferon signaling pathway. The molecular functions of the DEGs were mainly comprised of 2'-5'-oligoadenylate synthetase activity, double-stranded RNA binding, and actin-binding. Moreover, the cellular components of these DEGs included integrin complex, myosin II complex, and blood microparticle. Our findings alleviate the concerns over the safety of the S2 vaccine on primates and provide a genetic basis for the response from a mammalian host following vaccination with the S2 vaccine.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shijing Sun
- National/OIE Reference Laboratory for Animal Brucellosis, China Institute of Veterinary Drug Control (IVDC), Beijing, China
| | - Hui Jiang
- National/OIE Reference Laboratory for Animal Brucellosis, China Institute of Veterinary Drug Control (IVDC), Beijing, China
| | - Qiaoling Li
- National/OIE Reference Laboratory for Animal Brucellosis, China Institute of Veterinary Drug Control (IVDC), Beijing, China
| | - Yufu Liu
- National/OIE Reference Laboratory for Animal Brucellosis, China Institute of Veterinary Drug Control (IVDC), Beijing, China
| | - Qiang Gao
- National/OIE Reference Laboratory for Animal Brucellosis, China Institute of Veterinary Drug Control (IVDC), Beijing, China
| | - Wei Liu
- Academy of Agriculture and Animal Husbandry Sciences, Hohhot, China
| | - Yuming Qin
- National/OIE Reference Laboratory for Animal Brucellosis, China Institute of Veterinary Drug Control (IVDC), Beijing, China
| | - Yu Feng
- National/OIE Reference Laboratory for Animal Brucellosis, China Institute of Veterinary Drug Control (IVDC), Beijing, China
| | - Xiaowei Peng
- National/OIE Reference Laboratory for Animal Brucellosis, China Institute of Veterinary Drug Control (IVDC), Beijing, China
| | - Guanlong Xu
- National/OIE Reference Laboratory for Animal Brucellosis, China Institute of Veterinary Drug Control (IVDC), Beijing, China
| | - Qingchun Shen
- National/OIE Reference Laboratory for Animal Brucellosis, China Institute of Veterinary Drug Control (IVDC), Beijing, China
| | - Xuezheng Fan
- National/OIE Reference Laboratory for Animal Brucellosis, China Institute of Veterinary Drug Control (IVDC), Beijing, China
| | - Jiabo Ding
- National/OIE Reference Laboratory for Animal Brucellosis, China Institute of Veterinary Drug Control (IVDC), Beijing, China
| | - Liangquan Zhu
- National/OIE Reference Laboratory for Animal Brucellosis, China Institute of Veterinary Drug Control (IVDC), Beijing, China
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