Reserve size and anthropogenic disturbance affect the density of an African leopard (Panthera pardus) meta-population

Leopard density and determinants of space use in a farming landscape in South Africa

Protected areas are traditionally the foundation of conservation strategy, but land not formally protected is of particular importance for the conservation of large carnivores because of their typically wide-ranging nature. In South Africa, leopard (Panthera pardus) population decreases are thought to be occurring in areas of human development and intense negative interactions, but research is biased towards protected areas, with quantitative information on population sizes and trends in non-protected areas severely lacking. Using Spatially Explicit Capture-Recapture and occupancy techniques including 10 environmental and anthropogenic covariates, we analysed camera trap data from commercial farmland in South Africa where negative human-wildlife interactions are reported to be high. Our findings demonstrate that leopards persist at a moderate density (2.21 /100 km2) and exhibit signs of avoidance from areas where lethal control measures are implemented. This suggests leopards have the potential to navigate mixed mosaic landscapes effectively, enhancing their chances of long-term survival and coexistence with humans. Mixed mosaics of agriculture that include crops, game and livestock farming should be encouraged and, providing lethal control is not ubiquitous in the landscape, chains of safer spaces should permit vital landscape connectivity. However, continuing to promote non-lethal mitigation techniques remains vital.

Leopard density and the ecological and anthropogenic factors influencing density in a mixed-use landscape in the Western Cape, South Africa

Large carnivores face numerous threats, including habitat loss and fragmentation, direct killing, and prey depletion, leading to significant global range and population declines. Despite such threats, leopards (Panthera pardus) persist outside protected areas throughout most of their range, occupying diverse habitat types and land uses, including peri-urban and rural areas. Understanding of leopard population dynamics in mixed-use landscapes is limited, especially in South Africa, where the majority of leopard research has focused on protected areas. We use spatially explicit capture-recapture models to estimate leopard density across a mixed-use landscape of protected areas, farmland, and urban areas in the Overberg region of the Western Cape, South Africa. Data from 86 paired camera stations provided 221 independent captures of 25 leopards at 50 camera trap stations with a population density estimate of 0.64 leopards per 100 km2 (95% CI: 0.55-0.73). Elevation, terrain ruggedness, and vegetation productivity were important drivers of leopard density in the landscape, being highest on elevated remnants of natural land outside of protected areas. These results are similar to previous research findings in other parts of the Western Cape, where high-lying natural vegetation was shown to serve as both a refuge and a corridor for leopard movement in otherwise transformed landscapes. Given the low leopard density and the prevalence of transformed land intermixed with patches of more suitable leopard habitat, prioritising and preserving connectivity for leopards is vital in this shared landscape. Ecological corridors should be developed in partnership with private landowners through an inclusive and multifaceted conservation strategy which also incorporates monitoring of and rapid mitigation of emerging threats to leopards.

Impact of artificial waterholes on temporal partitioning in a carnivore guild: a comparison of activity patterns at artificial waterholes to roads and trails

Temporal partitioning in large carnivores have previously been found to be one of the main factors enabling co-existence. While activity patterns have been investigated separately at artificial waterholes and e.g., game trails, simultaneous comparative analyses of activity patterns at artificial waterholes and game trails have not been attempted. In this study, camera trap data from Maremani Nature Reserve was used to investigate whether temporal partitioning existed in a carnivore guild of four species (spotted hyena, leopard, brown hyena and African wild dog). Specifically, we investigated temporal partitioning at artificial waterholes and on roads and trails an average of 1,412 m away from an artificial waterhole. Activity patterns for the same species at artificial waterholes and roads/game trails were also compared. We found no significant differences in temporal activity between species at artificial waterholes. Temporal partitioning on game trails and roads was only found between spotted hyena (nocturnal) and African wild dog (crepuscular). Between nocturnal species (spotted hyena and leopard) no temporal partitioning was exhibited. Only African wild dog exhibited significantly different activity patterns at waterholes and roads/game trails. This indicates artificial waterholes may be a location for conflict in a carnivore guild. Our study highlights the impact of anthropogenic landscape changes and management decisions on the temporal axis of carnivores. More data on activity patterns at natural water sources such as ephemeral pans are needed to properly assess the effect of artificial waterholes on temporal partitioning in a carnivore guild.

Leopard density and interspecific spatiotemporal interactions in a hyena-dominated landscape

Scavenging is widespread in the carnivore guild and can greatly impact food web structures and population dynamics by either facilitation or suppression of sympatric carnivores. Due to habitat loss and fragmentation, carnivores are increasingly forced into close sympatry, possibly resulting in more interactions such as kleptoparasitism and competition. In this paper, we investigate the potential for these interactions when carnivore densities are high. A camera trap survey was conducted in central Tuli, Botswana, to examine leopard Panthera pardus densities and spatiotemporal activity patterns of leopard and its most important competitors' brown hyena Parahyaena brunnea and spotted hyena Crocuta crocuta. Spatial capture-recapture models estimated leopard population density to be 12.7 ± 3.2 leopard/100 km², which is one of the highest leopard densities in Africa. Time-to-event analyses showed both brown hyena and spotted hyena were observed more frequently before and after a leopard observation than expected by chance. The high spatiotemporal overlap of both hyena species with leopard is possibly explained by leopard providing scavenging opportunities for brown hyena and spotted hyena. Our results suggest that central Tuli is a high-density leopard area, despite possible intense kleptoparasitism and competition.

The Javan Leopard Panthera pardus melas (Cuvier, 1809) (Mammalia: Carnivora: Felidae) in West Java, Indonesia: estimating population density and occupancy

The Javan Leopard is endemic to the Indonesian island of Java and has been classified as Endangered. Reliable information about its population status, distribution, and density is lacking but are essential to guide conservation efforts and provide a benchmark for management decisions. Our study represents the first empirical density and occupancy estimates for the Leopard in West Java and provides baseline data for this region. We used camera trap data collected from February 2009 to October 2018 in six study areas comprising a sampling effort of 10,955 camera trap days in a total area of 793.5 km2. We identified 55 individual Leopards in these areas and estimated Leopard density using spatially explicit capture-recapture. Population density estimates range from 4.9 individuals/100 km2 in Gunung Guntur-Papandayan Nature Reserve to 16.04 individuals/100 km2 in Gunung Gede Pangrango National Park. Latter is among the globally highest Leopard densities. Based on detection data, we modelled single-season Leopard occupancy using three sampling covariates and eight site covariates. Modelling revealed that the two covariates forest cover and presence of Wild Boar are the strongest predictors for Leopard occupancy in our study areas. We recommend assessing and monitoring Leopard distribution, density and occupancy in other areas of Java and emphasize that a landscape approach for conservation of the Javan Leopard is imperative.

Troubled spots: Human impacts constrain the density of an apex predator inside protected areas

Effective conservation requires understanding the processes that determine population outcomes. Too often, we assume that protected areas conserve wild populations despite evidence that they frequently fail to do so. Without large-scale studies, however, we cannot determine what relationships are the product of localized conditions versus general patterns that inform conservation more broadly. Leopards' (Panthera pardus) basic ecology is well studied but little research has investigated anthropogenic effects on leopard density at broad scales. We investigated the drivers of leopard density among 27 diverse protected areas in northeastern South Africa to understand what conditions facilitate abundant populations. We formulated 10 working hypotheses that considered the relative influence of bottom-up biological factors and top-down anthropogenic factors on leopard density. Using camera-trap survey data, we fit a multi-session spatial capture-recapture model with inhomogenous density for each hypothesis and evaluated support using an information theoretic approach. The four supported hypotheses indicated that leopard density is primarily limited by human impacts, but that habitat suitability and management conditions also matter. The proportion of camera stations that recorded domestic animals, a proxy for the extent of human impacts and protected area effectiveness, was the only predictor variable present in all four supported models. Protected areas are the cornerstone of large felid conservation, but only when the human-wildlife interface is well managed and protected areas shelter wildlife populations from anthropogenic impacts. To ensure the long-term abundance of large carnivore populations, reserve managers should recognize the ineffectiveness of "paper parks" and promote contiguous networks of protected areas that offer leopards and other large mammal populations greater space and reduced human impacts.

Population size, density, and ranging behaviour in a key leopard population in the Western Cape, South Africa

Globally, leopards are the most widespread large felid. However, mounting anthropogenic threats are rapidly reducing viable leopard populations and their range. Despite the clear pressures facing this species, there is a dearth of robust and reliable population and density estimates for leopards across their range, which is particularly important in landscapes that consist of protected and non-protected areas. We conducted a camera trapping survey between 2017 and 2018 in the Western Cape, South Africa to estimate the occupancy, density, and population size of a leopard population. Leopards were recorded at 95% of camera trapping sites, which resulted in a high occupancy that showed no significant variation between seasons, habitat types, or along an altitudinal gradient. Our results indicated a low leopard density in the study area, with an estimated 1.53 leopards/100 km² in summer and 1.62 leopards/100 km² in winter. Mean leopard population size was therefore estimated at 107 and 113 individuals in the winter and summer respectively. Leopard activity centres for female ranges were centred in the core study area and could be predicted with good certainty, while males appeared to move out of the study area during winter which resulted in a higher uncertainty in locations of activity centres. Interestingly, livestock depredation events in the surrounding farmlands were significantly higher in winter, which coincides with male leopards moving outside the core protected area into the surrounding farmlands. To reduce livestock losses and retaliatory leopard killings, we suggest that human-carnivore conflict mitigation measures be intensely monitored during the winter months in the study area. We also suggest that future leopard conservation efforts should focus on privately-owned land as these non-protected areas contain the majority of the remaining suitable leopard habitat and may provide important dispersal corridors and buffer zones on which the long-term sustainability of leopard populations depends.

Methodological approaches for estimating populations of the endangered dhole Cuon alpinus

Large carnivores are important for maintaining ecosystem integrity and attract much research and conservation interest. For most carnivore species, estimating population density or abundance is challenging because they do not have unique markings for individual identification. This hinders status assessments for many threatened species, and calls for testing new methodological approaches. We examined past efforts to assess the population status of the endangered dhole (Cuon alpinus), and explored the application of a suite of recently developed models for estimating their populations using camera-trap data from India's Western Ghats. We compared the performance of Site-Based Abundance (SBA), Space-to-Event (STE), and Time-to-Event (TTE) models against current knowledge of their population size in the area. We also applied two of these models (TTE and STE) to the co-occurring leopard (Panthera pardus), for which density estimates were available from Spatially Explicit Capture-Recapture (SECR) models, so as to simultaneously validate the accuracy of estimates for one marked and one unmarked species. Our review of literature (n = 38) showed that most assessments of dhole populations involved crude indices (relative abundance index; RAI) or estimates of occupancy and area of suitable habitat; very few studies attempted to estimate populations. Based on empirical data from our field surveys, the TTE and SBA models overestimated dhole population size beyond ecologically plausible limits, but the STE model produced reliable estimates for both the species. Our findings suggest that it is difficult to estimate population sizes of unmarked species when model assumptions are not fully met and data are sparse, which are commonplace for most ecological surveys in the tropics. Based on our assessment, we propose that practitioners who have access to photo-encounter data on dholes across Asia test old and new analytical approaches to increase the overall knowledge-base on the species, and contribute towards conservation monitoring of this endangered carnivore.

Diet and activity pattern of leopard in relation to prey in tropical forest ecosystem

Understanding the predator–prey relationship is essential for implementing effective conservation management practices on threatened species. Leopard is a threatened apex mammalian predator that plays a crucial role in ecosystem functions in India’s tropical forest. We assessed the diet and activity pattern of leopards in relation to their prey using diet analysis and camera trapping data from Similipal Tiger Reserve, eastern India. Our results indicated that leopard prefers medium-sized prey such as wild pig, common langur and barking deer represented 60% of the total biomass consumed collectively. Results of 6413 camera trap night in 187 locations revealed that leopards showed cathemeral activity pattern and exhibited positive co-occurrence pattern and significant spatial and temporal overlap with their main prey, the wild pig. However, leopards showed very low spatial and temporal overlap with the second main prey, the common langur. Leopards avoided humans and showed low spatial and temporal overlap with humans. Our findings reveal that a trade-off might drive leopard activity between consuming prey and avoiding anthropogenic disturbances like human activity.

Home range variation in leopards living across the human density gradient

Home range size is a fundamental measure of animal space use, providing insight into habitat quality, animal density, and social organization. Human impacts increasingly are affecting wildlife, especially among wide-ranging species that encounter anthropogenic disturbance. Leopards (Panthera pardus) provide a useful model for studying this relationship because leopards coexist with people at high and low human densities and are sensitive to human disturbance. To compare leopard home range size across a range of human densities and other environmental conditions, we combined animal tracking data from 74 leopards in multiple studies with new analytical techniques that accommodate different sampling regimes. We predicted that home ranges would be smaller in more productive habitats and areas of higher human population density due to possible linkage with leopard prey subsidies from domestic species. We also predicted that male leopards would have larger home ranges than those of females. Home ranges varied in size from 14.5 km2 in India to 885.6 km2 in Namibia, representing a 60-fold magnitude of variation. Home range stability was evident for 95.2% of nontranslocated individuals and 38.5% of translocated individuals. Leopard home range sizes were negatively correlated with landscape productivity, and males used larger areas than females. Leopards in open habitats had a predicted negative correlation in home range size with human population density, but leopards in closed habitats used larger home ranges in areas with more people.

Prey availability and intraguild competition regulate the spatiotemporal dynamics of a modified large carnivore guild

Effective conservation management requires an understanding of the spatiotemporal dynamics driving large carnivore density and resource partitioning. In African ecosystems, reduced prey populations and the loss of competing guild members, most notably lion (Panthera leo), are expected to increase the levels of competition between remaining carnivores. Consequently, intraguild relationships can be altered, potentially increasing the risk of further population decline. Kasungu National Park (KNP), Malawi, is an example of a conservation area that has experienced large-scale reductions in both carnivore and prey populations, leaving a resident large carnivore guild consisting of only leopard (Panthera pardus) and spotted hyena (Crocuta crocuta). Here, we quantify the spatiotemporal dynamics of these two species and their degree of association, using a combination of co-detection modeling, time-to-event analyses, and temporal activity patterns from camera trap data. The detection of leopard and spotted hyena was significantly associated with the detection of preferred prey and competing carnivores, increasing the likelihood of species interaction. Temporal analyses revealed sex-specific differences in temporal activity, with female leopard activity patterns significantly different to those of spotted hyena and male conspecifics. Heightened risk of interaction with interspecific competitors and male conspecifics may have resulted in female leopards adopting temporal avoidance strategies to facilitate coexistence. Female leopard behavioral adaptations increased overall activity levels and diurnal activity rates, with potential consequences for overall fitness and exposure to sources of mortality. As both species are currently found at low densities in KNP, increased risk of competitive interactions, which infer a reduction in fitness, could have significant implications for large carnivore demographics. The protection of remaining prey populations is necessary to mitigate interspecific competition and avoid further alterations to the large carnivore guild.

Density estimation of tiger and leopard using spatially explicit capture-recapture framework

The conservation of large carnivores often requires precise and accurate estimates of their populations. Being cryptic and occurring at low population densities, obtaining an unbiased population estimate is difficult in large carnivores. To overcome the uncertainties in the conventional capture–recapture (CR) methods used to estimate large carnivore densities, more robust methods such as spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) framework are now widely used. We modeled the CR data of tiger (Panthera tigris tigris) and leopard (Panthera pardus fusca) in the SECR framework with biotic and abiotic covariates likely believed to influence their densities. An effort of 2,211 trap nights resulted in the capture of 33 and 38 individual tigers and leopards. A total of 95 and 74 detections of tigers and leopards were achieved using 35 pairs of camera traps. Tiger and leopard density were estimated at 4.71 ± 1.20 (3.05–5.11) and 3.03 ± 0.78 (1.85–4.99) per 100 km². Our results show that leopard density increased with high road density, high terrain ruggedness and habitats with high percentage of cropland and natural vegetation. The tiger density was positively influenced by the mosaic of cropland and natural vegetation. This study provides the first robust density estimates of tiger and leopard within the study area. Our results support the notion that large carnivores can attain moderate densities within human-dominated regions around protected areas relying on domestic livestock. Broader management strategies aimed at maintaining wild prey in the human-dominated areas around protected areas are necessary for large and endangered carnivores’ sustenance in the buffer zones around protected areas.

Leopard Density Estimation within an Enclosed Reserve, Namibia Using Spatially Explicit Capture-Recapture Models

Simple Summary

Due to continuous levels of human–wildlife conflict, habitat loss and fragmentation, the establishment of protected and enclosed reserves constitute a solid foundation for the long-term survival of threatened species. Because species living in enclosed systems often behave differently compared to their free-roaming counterparts, research is forming an important and essential tool to understand their ecology and behavior. For a population to be sustainable in a closed, fenced system, effective conservation and management strategies need to be developed on the basis of robust population estimates. We found that the study area, a protected nature reserve, is harbouring the highest leopard density in Namibia to date, highlighting that small, enclosed reserves can play a vital role for the survival of threatened species in the future.

Abstract

The establishment of enclosed conservation areas are claimed to be the driving force for the long-term survival of wildlife populations. Whilst fencing provides an important tool in conservation, it simultaneously represents a controversial matter as it stops natural migration processes, which could ultimately lead to inbreeding, a decline in genetic diversity and local extinction if not managed correctly. Thus, wildlife residing in enclosed reserves requires effective conservation and management strategies, which are strongly reliant on robust population estimates. Here, we used camera traps combined with the relatively new class of spatially explicit capture-recaptured models (SECR) to produce the first reliable leopard population estimate for an enclosed reserve in Namibia. Leopard density was estimated at 14.51 leopards/100 km², the highest recorded density in Namibia to date. A combination of high prey abundance, the absence of human persecution and a lack of top-down control are believed to be the main drivers of the recorded high leopard population. Our results add to the growing body of literature which suggests enclosed reserves have the potential to harbour high densities and highlight the importance of such reserves for the survival of threatened species in the future.