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Gonçalves F, Farooq H, Harfoot M, Pires MM, Villar N, Sales L, Carvalho C, Bello C, Emer C, Bovendorp RS, Mendes C, Beca G, Lautenschlager L, Souza Y, Pedrosa F, Paz C, Zipparro VB, Akkawi P, Bercê W, Farah F, Freitas AVL, Silveira LF, Olmos F, Geldmann J, Dalsgaard B, Galetti M. A global map of species at risk of extinction due to natural hazards. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2024; 121:e2321068121. [PMID: 38885390 PMCID: PMC11214083 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2321068121] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/02/2023] [Accepted: 05/05/2024] [Indexed: 06/20/2024] Open
Abstract
An often-overlooked question of the biodiversity crisis is how natural hazards contribute to species extinction risk. To address this issue, we explored how four natural hazards, earthquakes, hurricanes, tsunamis, and volcanoes, overlapped with the distribution ranges of amphibians, birds, mammals, and reptiles that have either narrow distributions or populations with few mature individuals. To assess which species are at risk from these natural hazards, we combined the frequency and magnitude of each natural hazard to estimate their impact. We considered species at risk if they overlapped with regions where any of the four natural hazards historically occurred (n = 3,722). Those species with at least a quarter of their range subjected to a high relative impact were considered at high risk (n = 2,001) of extinction due to natural hazards. In total, 834 reptiles, 617 amphibians, 302 birds, and 248 mammals were at high risk and they were mainly distributed on islands and in the tropics. Hurricanes (n = 983) and earthquakes (n = 868) affected most species, while tsunamis (n = 272), and volcanoes (n = 171) affected considerably fewer. The region with the highest number of species at high risk was the Pacific Ring of Fire, especially due to volcanoes, earthquakes, and tsunamis, while hurricane-related high-risk species were concentrated in the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, and northwestern Pacific Ocean. Our study provides important information regarding the species at risk due to natural hazards and can help guide conservation attention and efforts to safeguard their survival.
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Affiliation(s)
- Fernando Gonçalves
- Center for Research on Biodiversity Dynamics and Climate Change, Department of Biodiversity, São Paulo State University, Rio Claro, Sao Paulo13506-900, Brazil
- Section for Molecular Ecology and Evolution, Globe Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen1350, Denmark
| | - Harith Farooq
- Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, Globe Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen1350, Denmark
- Faculty of Natural Sciences, Lúrio University, Pemba3200, Mozambique
- Gothenburg Global Biodiversity Centre, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg41319, Sweden
| | - Mike Harfoot
- Vizzuality, Calle de Fuencarral, Madrid28010, Spain
| | - Mathias M. Pires
- Center for Research on Biodiversity Dynamics and Climate Change, Department of Biodiversity, São Paulo State University, Rio Claro, Sao Paulo13506-900, Brazil
- Departamento de Biologia Animal, Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Campinas, São Paulo13083-862, Brazil
| | - Nacho Villar
- Center for Research on Biodiversity Dynamics and Climate Change, Department of Biodiversity, São Paulo State University, Rio Claro, Sao Paulo13506-900, Brazil
- Department of Aquatic Ecology, Netherlands Institute of Ecology, Wageningen, PB6708, The Netherlands
| | - Lilian Sales
- Department of Earth, Environmental and Geographic Sciences, Irving K. Barber, Faculty of Science, University of British Columbia Okanagan, Kelowna, BCV1V 1V8, Canada
| | - Carolina Carvalho
- Center for Research on Biodiversity Dynamics and Climate Change, Department of Biodiversity, São Paulo State University, Rio Claro, Sao Paulo13506-900, Brazil
- Instituto Tecnológico Vale, Belém, Pará66055-090, Brazil
| | - Carolina Bello
- Center for Research on Biodiversity Dynamics and Climate Change, Department of Biodiversity, São Paulo State University, Rio Claro, Sao Paulo13506-900, Brazil
- Department of Environmental Systems Science, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zürich8092, Switzerland
| | - Carine Emer
- Center for Research on Biodiversity Dynamics and Climate Change, Department of Biodiversity, São Paulo State University, Rio Claro, Sao Paulo13506-900, Brazil
- Instituto de Pesquisas Jardim Botânico do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro22460-030, Brazil
| | - Ricardo S. Bovendorp
- Center for Research on Biodiversity Dynamics and Climate Change, Department of Biodiversity, São Paulo State University, Rio Claro, Sao Paulo13506-900, Brazil
- Applied Ecology and Conservation Lab, Departamento de Ciências Biológicas, Universidade Estadual de Santa Cruz, Ilhéus, Bahia45662-900, Brazil
| | - Calebe Mendes
- Center for Research on Biodiversity Dynamics and Climate Change, Department of Biodiversity, São Paulo State University, Rio Claro, Sao Paulo13506-900, Brazil
- Asean School of the Environment, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Gabrielle Beca
- Center for Research on Biodiversity Dynamics and Climate Change, Department of Biodiversity, São Paulo State University, Rio Claro, Sao Paulo13506-900, Brazil
- Australian Wildlife Conservancy, Subiaco, WA6008, Australia
| | - Laís Lautenschlager
- Center for Research on Biodiversity Dynamics and Climate Change, Department of Biodiversity, São Paulo State University, Rio Claro, Sao Paulo13506-900, Brazil
- Department of Biology, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL33124
| | - Yuri Souza
- Center for Research on Biodiversity Dynamics and Climate Change, Department of Biodiversity, São Paulo State University, Rio Claro, Sao Paulo13506-900, Brazil
- Department of Biology, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL33124
| | - Felipe Pedrosa
- Center for Research on Biodiversity Dynamics and Climate Change, Department of Biodiversity, São Paulo State University, Rio Claro, Sao Paulo13506-900, Brazil
| | - Claudia Paz
- Center for Research on Biodiversity Dynamics and Climate Change, Department of Biodiversity, São Paulo State University, Rio Claro, Sao Paulo13506-900, Brazil
| | - Valesca B. Zipparro
- Center for Research on Biodiversity Dynamics and Climate Change, Department of Biodiversity, São Paulo State University, Rio Claro, Sao Paulo13506-900, Brazil
| | - Paula Akkawi
- Center for Research on Biodiversity Dynamics and Climate Change, Department of Biodiversity, São Paulo State University, Rio Claro, Sao Paulo13506-900, Brazil
| | - William Bercê
- Center for Research on Biodiversity Dynamics and Climate Change, Department of Biodiversity, São Paulo State University, Rio Claro, Sao Paulo13506-900, Brazil
| | - Fabiano Farah
- Center for Research on Biodiversity Dynamics and Climate Change, Department of Biodiversity, São Paulo State University, Rio Claro, Sao Paulo13506-900, Brazil
| | - André V. L. Freitas
- Departamento de Biologia Animal, Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Campinas, São Paulo13083-862, Brazil
- Museu de Diversidade Biológica, Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Campinas, São Paulo13083-862, Brazil
| | - Luís Fábio Silveira
- Museu de Zoologia de São Paulo, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo04263-000, Brazil
| | - Fábio Olmos
- Permian Global, LondonW1G 0LB, United Kingdom
| | - Jonas Geldmann
- Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, Globe Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen1350, Denmark
| | - Bo Dalsgaard
- Section for Molecular Ecology and Evolution, Globe Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen1350, Denmark
| | - Mauro Galetti
- Center for Research on Biodiversity Dynamics and Climate Change, Department of Biodiversity, São Paulo State University, Rio Claro, Sao Paulo13506-900, Brazil
- Kimberly Green Latin American and Caribbean Center, Florida International University, Miami, FL33199
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