Impacts of climate change on high priority fruit fly species in Australia

Prediction of potential distributions of Morina kokonorica and Morina chinensis in China

Changes in the habitats of species can provide insights into the impact of climate change on their habitats. Species in the genus Morina (Morinoideae) are perennial herbaceous plants that are mainly distributed in the South Asian Mountains and Eastern Mediterranean. In China, there are four species and two varieties of this genus distributed across the Yunnan, Sichuan, Qinghai, and Gansu provinces. This study used the optimal MaxEnt model to simulate past, current, and future potentially suitable habitats of Morina kokonorica and Morina chinensis. Seventy data of M. kokonorica occurrences and 3 of M. chinensis were used in the model to predict potentially suitable habitats. The model prediction results indicated that both M. kokonorica and M. chinensis exhibited trends of northward migration to higher latitudes and westward migration along the Himalayas to higher elevations, suggesting that the northern valleys of Hengduan Mountains and northern and eastern parts of the Himalayas were potential refugia for M. kokonorica, and the potential refugia for M. chinensis was located in the eastern part of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The results of this niche analysis showed that the two species had higher levels of interspecific competition and that the environmental adaptability of M. chinensis was stronger. This research could help further understand the response pattern of Morina to environmental change, to understand the adaptability of species to the environment, and promote the protection of species.

Metarhizium spp. isolates effective against Queensland fruit fly juvenile life stages in soil

Queensland fruit fly, Bactrocera tryoni, Froggatt (Diptera: Tephritidae) is Australia's primary fruit fly pest species. Integrated Pest Management (IPM) has been adopted to sustainably manage this polyphagous species with a reduced reliance on chemical pesticides. At present, control measures are aimed at the adult stages of the fly, with no IPM tools available to target larvae once they exit the fruit and pupate in the soil. The use of entomopathogenic fungi may provide a biologically-based control method for these soil-dwelling life stages. The effectiveness of fungal isolates of Metarhizium and Beauveria species were screened under laboratory conditions against Queensland fruit fly. In bioassays, 16 isolates were screened for pathogenicity following exposure of third-instar larvae to inoculum-treated vermiculite used as a pupation substrate. The best performing Metarhizium sp. isolate achieved an average percentage mortality of 93%, whereas the best performing Beauveria isolate was less efficient, with an average mortality of 36%. Susceptibility to infection during different development stages was investigated using selected fungal isolates, with the aim of assessing all soil-dwelling life stages from third-instar larvae to final pupal stages and emerging adults. Overall, the third larval instar was the most susceptible stage, with average mortalities between 51-98% depending on the isolate tested. Moreover, adult mortality was significantly higher when exposed to inoculum during pupal eclosion, with mortalities between 56-76% observed within the first nine days post-emergence. The effect of temperature and inoculum concentration on insect mortality were assessed independently with candidate isolates to determine the optimum temperature range for fungal biological control activity and the rate required for application in field conditions. Metarhizium spp. are highly efficacious at killing Queensland fruit fly and have potential for use as biopesticides to target soil-dwelling and other life stages of B. tryoni.

Predicting the current and future distribution of Monochamus carolinensis (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) based on the maximum entropy model

BACKGROUND

Monochamus carolinensis is an important vector of pinewood nematodes in North America that is under quarantine in several countries worldwide. The distribution of M. carolinensis was previously thought to be limited to North America; however, we discovered it during trapping in China in 2022. Using this discovery and information regarding the area of origin, we applied a machine-learning algorithm based on the maximum entropy principle to predict the current and future (2050s, 2070s) potential distribution areas of M. carolinensis using bioclimatic variables.

RESULTS

The biological suitability of M. carolinensis was mainly driven by precipitation factors (BIO18, BIO15, BIO19), with 87.18% of the potential distribution areas located in South America, Asia, North America and Africa. Future potential distribution areas of M. carolinensis are predicted to expand to high latitudes, with an average increase of 10 245 874.88 km2 , and only 6.89% of the current suitable areas will become unsuitable. The potential distribution areas in 2070 are largest under the SSP585 scenario, with a 41.40% predicted increase (52 309 803.61 km2 ) above the current distribution, mainly reflecting an increase of the marginally and highly suitable areas.

CONCLUSION

The determination of dominant climatic factors and potential distribution areas will help provide an early warning for an M. carolinensis invasion, as well as provide a scientific basis for the spread and outbreak, facilitating development of effective governmental prevention and control measures. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry.

Biosecurity and Management Strategies for Economically Important Exotic Tephritid Fruit Fly Species in Australia

Exotic tephritid incursions are of high concern to Australia's biosecurity and its horticultural industries. It is vital that Australia remains ready to respond to incursions as they arise, as an incursion of tephritid fruit fly species will result in significant economic losses. In this review, we compared Australian incursion management strategies for fruit flies with global management strategies and identified possible areas where improvements could be made in an Australian context. Overall, Australia has a good understanding of the main tephritid threats, of which Bactrocera species from across the Torres Strait (northern Australia) are of most concern. Effective tools for tephritid detection and early warning surveillance at points of entry are in place at ports and in horticultural areas Australia-wide and provide the basis for initiating biosecurity responses in the event of an incursion. Area-wide control measures used in successful eradication attempts globally are available for use in Australia. However, a specific tephritid emergency response plan identifying suitable response measures and control options for species of concern is not yet available. We have identified that Australia has the policies and management tools available to respond to an exotic tephritid incursion, but the speed at which this could be accomplished would be greatly improved by the development of species-specific emergency response plans.

Potentially Suitable Geographical Area for Monochamus alternatus under Current and Future Climatic Scenarios Based on Optimized MaxEnt Model

M. alternatus is considered to be an important and effective insect vector for the spread of the important international forest quarantine pest, Bursaphelenchus xylophilus. The precise determination of potential suitable areas of M. alternatus is essential to monitor, prevent, and control M. alternatus worldwide. According to the distribution points and climatic variables, the optimized MaxEnt model and ArcGIS were used to predict the current and future potentially suitable areas of M. alternatus worldwide. The optimized MaxEnt model parameters were set as feature combination (FC) = LQHP and β = 1.5, which were determined by the values of AUC_diff, OR₁₀, and ΔAICc. Bio2, Bio6, Bio10, Bio12, and Bio14 were the dominant bioclimatic variables affecting the distribution of M. alternatus. Under the current climate conditions, the potentially suitable habitats of M. alternatus were distributed across all continents except Antarctica, accounting for 4.17% of the Earth's total land area. Under future climate scenarios, the potentially suitable habitats of M. alternatus increased significantly, spreading to a global scale. The results of this study could provide a theoretical basis for the risk analysis of the global distribution and dispersal of M. alternatus as well as the precise monitoring and prevention of this beetle.

Competition: A Missing Component of Fruit Fly (Diptera: Tephritidae) Risk Assessment and Planning

Tephritid fruit flies are internationally significant pests of horticulture. Because they are also highly invasive and of major quarantine concern, significant effort is placed in developing full or partial pest risk assessments (PRAs) for fruit flies, while large investments can be made for their control. Competition between fruit fly species, driven by the need to access and utilise fruit for larval development, has long been recognised by researchers as a fundamental component of fruit fly biology, but is entirely absent from the fruit fly PRA literature and appears not be considered in major initiative planning. First presenting a summary of the research data which documents fruit fly competition, this paper then identifies four major effects of fruit fly competition that could impact a PRA or large-scale initiative: (i) numerical reduction of an existing fruit fly pest species following competitive displacement by an invasive fruit fly; (ii) displacement of a less competitive fruit fly pest species in space, time or host; (iii) ecological resistance to fruit fly invasion in regions already with competitively dominant fruit fly species; and (iv) lesser-pest fruit fly resurgence following control of a competitively superior species. From these four major topics, six more detailed issues are identified, with each of these illustrated by hypothetical, but realistic biosecurity scenarios from Australia/New Zealand and Europe. The scenarios identify that the effects of fruit fly competition might both positively or negatively affect the predicted impacts of an invasive fruit fly or targeted fruit fly control initiative. Competition as a modifier of fruit fly risk needs to be recognised by policy makers and incorporated into fruit fly PRAs and major investment initiatives.

Developing Lines of Queensland Fruit Flies with Different Levels of Response to a Kairomone Lure

Simple Summary

Queensland fruit fly (Q-fly) is widely recognized as one of the world’s worst economic pests of fruit. In this project, a series of artificial selection experiments were conducted to develop lines of Q-fly with different levels of response to the male-specific lure Cue-lure^® (CL) and to assess the heritability of this particular trait. Although lines of high and low responsive males to Cl were successfully developed through five cycles of artificial selection, the response to CL did not completely disappear. I have demonstrated that relaxing artificial selection results in the loss of 35–46% of the selection response after a further two generations.

Abstract

The Queensland fruit fly (Q-fly), Bactrocera tryoni (Froggatt) is a serious horticultural pest in Australia because it is highly invasive and destructive. Among all pest management practices, sterile insect techniques (SIT) and male annihilation techniques (MAT) are important control options for many tephritid fruit fly pests, including Q-fly. However, simultaneous applications of MAT and SIT require the wild males to be responsive to a lure while the released sterile males remain largely unresponsive. In this study, a series of artificial selection experiments was conducted to develop lines of Q-fly with different levels of response to the male-specific lure Cue-lure^® (CL). After only five cycles of artificial selections, lines of high responsiveness (HR) and low responsiveness (LR) males diverging significantly in their response to the lure were developed. In the field cage experiment, the number of trapped males in fruit fly traps was significantly lower in the LR line than both the HR line and the control which supports the laboratory results. However, when artificial selection was stopped at F5 and retested after two generations, the number of unresponsive males dropped drastically compared to the rate of response of wild flies. Because the selection can be conducted only on males, it would be difficult to eliminate the dominant responsive alleles in the system without continuous selection.

Manipulating Insect Sex Determination Pathways for Genetic Pest Management: Opportunities and Challenges

Sex determination pathways in insects are generally characterised by an upstream primary signal, which is highly variable across species, and that regulates the splicing of a suite of downstream but highly-conserved genes (transformer, doublesex and fruitless). In turn, these downstream genes then regulate the expression of sex-specific characteristics in males and females. Identification of sex determination pathways has and continues to be, a critical component of insect population suppression technologies. For example, "first-generation" transgenic technologies such as fsRIDL (Female-Specific Release of Insects carrying Dominant Lethals) enabled efficient selective removal of females from a target population as a significant improvement on the sterile insect technique (SIT). Second-generation technologies such as CRISPR/Cas9 homing gene drives and precision-guided SIT (pgSIT) have used gene editing technologies to manipulate sex determination genes in vivo. The development of future, third-generation control technologies, such as Y-linked drives, (female to male) sex-reversal, or X-shredding, will require additional knowledge of aspects of sexual development, including a deeper understanding of the nature of primary signals and dosage compensation. This review shows how knowledge of sex determination in target pest species is fundamental to all phases of the development of control technologies.

Predicting the Invasion Risk by Anastrepha sororcula (Diptera: Tephritidae) in Distinct Geographic Regions

The movement of endemic fruit flies to new habitats represents a major biological and economic threat. Anastrepha sororcula Zucchi, 1979 is widely distributed in Brazil and also in Colombia, Ecuador, and Paraguay. Here, we present the potential distribution of A. sororcula in endemic areas and project this model into other regions such as part of sub-Saharan Africa, Central America, and Asia to show areas around the world that this species can potentially establish. We combined geographic coordinates with climate data. The models were built using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm. Many mango- and guava-producing countries exhibited climatic suitability for A. sororcula in the regions studied including the nine largest world producers: India, Brazil, Malawi, Kenya, Haiti, Cuba, Colombia, Madagascar, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Many of these countries showed ideal host plant availability and climatic conditions for the entry and establishment of A. sororcula. This study is a pioneer in the identification of representative areas in the world with climatic suitability for A. sororcula, which shows the importance of predicting areas at risk of invasion to monitor the movement and establishment of fruit fly species in new regions, which is fundamental to area-wide integrated pest management programs.

Global distribution of soapberries (Sapindus L.) habitats under current and future climate scenarios

Sapindus (Sapindus L.) is a widely distributed economically important tree genus that provides biodiesel, biomedical and biochemical products. However, with climate change, deforestation, and economic development, the diversity of Sapindus germplasms may face the risk of destruction. Therefore, utilising historical environmental data and future climate projections from the BCC-CSM2-MR global climate database, we simulated the current and future global distributions of suitable habitats for Sapindus using a Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model. The estimated ecological thresholds for critical environmental factors were: a minimum temperature of 0-20 °C in the coldest month, soil moisture levels of 40-140 mm, a mean temperature of 2-25 °C in the driest quarter, a mean temperature of 19-28 °C in the wettest quarter, and a soil pH of 5.6-7.6. The total suitable habitat area was 6059.97 × 10⁴ km², which was unevenly distributed across six continents. As greenhouse gas emissions increased over time, the area of suitable habitats contracted in lower latitudes and expanded in higher latitudes. Consequently, surveys and conservation should be prioritised in southern hemisphere areas which are in danger of becoming unsuitable. In contrast, other areas in northern and central America, China, and India can be used for conservation and large-scale cultivation in the future.

Non-linear physiological responses to climate change: the case of Ceratitis capitata distribution and abundance in Europe

Understanding how climate change might influence the distribution and abundance of crop pests is fundamental for the development and the implementation of pest management strategies. Here we present and apply a modelling framework assessing the non-linear physiological responses of the life-history strategies of the Mediterranean fruit fly (Ceratitis capitata, Wiedemann) to temperature. The model is used to explore how climate change might influence the distribution and abundance of this pest in Europe. We estimated the change in the distribution, abundance and activity of this species under current (year 2020) and future (years 2030 and 2050) climatic scenarios. The effects of climate change on the distribution, abundance and activity of C. capitata are heterogeneous both in time and in space. A northward expansion of the species, an increase in the altitudinal limit marking the presence of the species, and an overall increase in population abundance is expected in areas that might become more suitable under a changing climate. On the contrary, stable or reduced population abundances can be expected in areas where climate change leads to equally suitable or less suitable conditions. This heterogeneity reflects the contribution of both spatial variability in the predicted climatic patterns and non-linearity in the responses of the species’ life-history strategies to temperature.

Evaluating the Influence of Climate Change on Sophora moorcroftiana (Benth.) Baker Habitat Distribution on the Tibetan Plateau Using Maximum Entropy Model

The ecosystems across the Tibetan Plateau are changing rapidly in response to climate change, which poses unprecedented challenges for the control and mitigation of desertification on the Tibetan Plateau. Sophora moorcroftiana (Benth.) Baker is a drought-resistant plant species that has great potential to be used for desertification and soil degradation control on the Tibetan Plateau. In this study, using a maximum entropy (MaxEnt) niche model, we characterized the habitat distribution of S. moorcroftiana on the Tibetan Plateau under both current and future climate scenarios. To construct a robust model, 242 population occurrence records, gathered from our field surveys, historical data records, and a literature review, were used to calibrate the MaxEnt model. Our results showed that, under current environmental conditions, the habitat of S. moorcroftiana was concentrated in regions along the Yarlung Tsangpo, Lancang, and Jinsha rivers on the Tibetan Plateau. Elevation, isothermality, and minimal air temperature of the coldest month played a dominant role in determining the habitat distribution of S. moorcroftiana. Under future climate scenarios, the increased air temperature was likely to benefit the expansion of S. moorcroftiana over the short term, but, in the long run, continued warming may restrict the growth of S. moorcroftiana and lead to a contraction in its habitat. Importantly, the Yarlung Tsangpo River valley was found to be the core habitat of S. moorcroftiana, and this habitat moved westwards along the Yarlung Tsangpo River under future climate scenarios, but did not detach from it. This finding suggests that, with the current pace of climate change, an increase in efforts to protect and cultivate S. moorcroftiana is necessary and critical to control desertification on the Tibetan Plateau.

Predicting the Global Distribution of Solenopsis geminata (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) under Climate Change Using the MaxEnt Model

Simple Summary

Climate change influences the distribution of species. The tropical fire ant Solenopsis geminata (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) is a serious invasive species that damages the native ecosystem. In this study, we evaluated the current and future distribution of S. geminata under climate change using the ecological niche model. The model results showed that the favorable habitat area of S. geminata will expand to higher latitudes on a global scale due to future global warming. Some countries located in America and East Asia, such as Brazil, China, South Korea, the USA, and Uruguay, can be threatened by S. geminata due to climate change.

Abstract

The tropical fire ant Solenopsis geminata (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) is a serious invasive species that causes a decline in agricultural production, damages infrastructure, and harms human health. This study was aimed to develop a model using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm to predict the current and future distribution of S. geminata on a global scale for effective monitoring and management. In total, 669 occurrence sites of S. geminata and six bioclimatic variables of current and future climate change scenarios for 2050 and 2100 were used for the modeling. The annual mean temperature, annual precipitation, and precipitation in the driest quarter were the key influential factors for determining the distribution of S. geminata. Although the potential global distribution area of S. geminata is predicted to decrease slightly under global warming, the distribution of favorable habitats is predicted to expand to high latitudes under climate scenarios. In addition, some countries in America and East Asia, such as Brazil, China, South Korea, the USA, and Uruguay, are predicted to be threatened by S. geminata invasion under future climate change. These findings can facilitate the proactive management of S. geminata through monitoring, surveillance, and quarantine measures.

Dispersal and competitive release affect the management of native and invasive tephritid fruit flies in large and smallholder farms in Ethiopia

African horticulture is seriously affected by fruit flies, both native and invasive. Novel sustainable control methods need testing against the backdrop of smallholder-dominated farming of Africa. We evaluated the potential of male-specific attractants (parapheromones) laced with insecticide to suppress the alien invasive Bactrocera dorsalis and native Ceratitis capitata. In large-scale guava, methyl-eugenol (ME)-bait stations combined with toxic protein baits suppressed B. dorsalis within 8 months but resulted in a resurgence of the displaced Ceratitis capitata. In smallholder farms, intervention using SPLAT-ME laced with spinosad was surprisingly unsuccessful. Subsequent mark-release-recapture experiments showed high dispersal rates of flies, covering many times a typical farm size, leading to a continuous influx of flies from surrounding areas. Several other factors important for intervention were evaluated. SPLAT-MAT-ME dollops remained attractive for over two weeks, although gradually becoming less attractive than fresh baits. Further, competitive displacement was observed: C. capitata selectively emerged from fruits in which B. dorsalis infestation was low. Finally, we evaluated whether ME could be combined with C. capitata male attractants [trimedlure (TML) and terpinyl acetate (TA)] without affecting attraction. Combining male lures did not affect catches directly, although at very high populations of B. dorsalis attracted to ME interfered with C. capitata trap entry. Although ME-based methods can effectively suppress B. dorsalis, they were not effective at single smallholder scale due to the high dispersive propensity of tephritids. Further, competitive release implies the need for a combination of lures and methods. These observations are important for developing control schemes tailored for African smallholder settings.