Predictors of mortality in adult people living with HIV on antiretroviral therapy in Nepal: A retrospective cohort study, 2004-2013

Disparities in mortality trends of adults with HIV in the USA: A comprehensive examination across 2 decades

Approximately 38 million people worldwide are affected by human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), with 4000 new infections daily. While literature explores HIV mortality among the elderly in the US, there is an underrepresentation of mortality data for adults. By scrutinizing mortality trends based on demographic factors such as gender, race or ethnicity, age groups, and geographic location, the study seeks to uncover patterns that may facilitate a longitudinal perspective for tailoring interventions and allocating resources effectively. Crude death rates and age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMR) per 100,000 individuals were calculated using HIV mortality data (ICD-10 Codes B20-24) from CDC WONDER database. Permutation test was used to calculate annual percentage changes in AAMR with 95% confidence interval. Average annual percentage changes were computed as weighted average of annual percentage changes. Between 1999 to 2020, US adult HIV deaths totaled 225,396 (AAMR: 5.03), with a significantly decreasing average annual percentage changes (-5.94). Males exhibited a 3-fold higher AAMR (7.50) than females (2.67). Non-Hispanic Blacks had the highest AAMR (21.82), while Non-Hispanic Asians had the lowest (0.67). The South and Northeast regions had the highest AAMRs (6.91 and 6.33, respectively). Notably, the District of Columbia had an alarmingly high mortality rate of 39.9, while North Dakota had the lowest (0.7). Urban regions (5.47) had double the mortality rates of rural regions (2.70). Mortality rate peaked in age groups 45 to 54 (8.65) and 35 to 44 (7.42). While overall HIV mortality is declining, disparities persist among demographics. Targeted interventions are crucial to improve preventive measures and healthcare access for disproportionately affected groups.

Statistical analysis on the incidence and predictors of death among second-line ART patients in public hospitals of North Wollo and Waghemira Zones, Ethiopia, 2021

Acquired immune deficiency virus, caused by the human immunodeficiency virus, is a significant global health concern. Sub-Saharan Africa particularly Ethiopia faces a high prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus. In low-income settings like Ethiopia, early mortality rates are elevated due to severe opportunistic infections and advanced disease at Anti-retroviral treatment initiation. Despite available treatments, delayed treatment initiation among Human Immunodeficiency Virus -infected individuals in Africa, including Ethiopia, leads to disease progression and increased mortality risk. This study aimed to identify the factors contributing to the death of HIV patients under treatment at second line regimen in public hospitals of North Wollo and Waghemira Zones. A retrospective cohort study with 474 patients was conducted in selected hospitals of North Wollo and Waghemira Zones. A parametric Weibull regression model was employed, and the adjusted hazard ratio served as the measure of association. Variables significantly affected the outcome of the study was determined at a p-value < 0.05, along with a 95% confidence interval for the variables. The patients were within the average age of 38.6(standard deviation ± 12.5) years and majority (45.57%) had no formal education. The overall death incidence rate among second-line anti-retroviral treatment patients was 1.98 per 100-person years [95% CI 1.4-2.9%]. Poor adherence to antiretroviral treatment, male gender, and being underweight significantly increased the hazard of death. Conversely, increased anti-retroviral treatment duration had a significant and negative impact, reducing the hazard of death among patients. The study reveals a high incidence of death among second line anti-retroviral treatment users. Independent predictors include poor adherence, male gender, and underweight status, all significantly increasing the risk of death. On the positive side, the hazard of death decreases with longer anti-retroviral treatment duration. A critical concern and counseling should be given for better ART adherence, to change their nutritional status and for males.

Survival trends among people living with human immunodeficiency virus on antiretroviral treatment in two rural districts in Ghana

BACKGROUND

The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) has caused a lot of havoc since the early 1970s, affecting 37.6 million people worldwide. The 90-90-90 treatment policy was adopted in Ghana in 2015 with the overall aim to end new infections by 2030, and to improve the life expectancy of HIV seropositive individuals. With the scale-up of Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy, the lifespan of People Living with HIV (PLWH) on antiretrovirals (ARVs) is expected to improve. In rural districts in Ghana, little is known about the survival probabilities of PLWH on ARVs. Hence, this study was conducted to estimate the survival trends of PLWH on ARVs.

METHODS

A retrospective evaluation of data gathered across ARV centres within Tatale and Zabzugu districts in Ghana from 2016 to 2020 among PLWH on ARVs. A total of 261 participants were recruited for the study. The data was analyzed using STATA software version 16.0. Lifetable analysis and Kaplan-Meier graph were used to assess the survival probabilities. "Stptime" per 1000 person-years and the competing risk regression were used to evaluate mortality rates and risk.

RESULTS

The cumulative survival probability was 0.8847 (95% CI: 0.8334-0.9209). The overall mortality rate was 51.89 (95% CI: 36.89-72.97) per 1000 person-years. WHO stage III and IV [AHR: 4.25 (95%CI: 1.6-9.71) p = 0.001] as well as age group (50+ years) [AHR: 5.02 (95% CI: 1.78-14.13) p = 0.002] were associated with mortality.

CONCLUSION

Survival probabilities were high among the population of PLWH in Tatale and Zabzugu with declining mortality rates. Clinicians should provide critical attention and care to patients at HIV WHO stages III and IV and intensify HIV screening at all entry points since early diagnosis is associated with high survival probabilities.

Brief Report: Mortality After Loss to Follow-Up-A Linkage Study of People Living With HIV in Thailand and Malaysia

BACKGROUND

Linkage studies have reported high rates of previously unascertained mortality among people living with HIV (PLHIV) who have been lost to follow-up (LTFU). We assessed survival outcomes among PLHIV who were LTFU in Thailand and Malaysia, through linkages to a national death registry or HIV database.

METHODS

Data linkages with the national death registry or national HIV database were conducted in 2020 on all PLHIV who met LTFU criteria while enrolled in care at participating HIV clinical sites. LTFU was defined as having no documented clinical contact in the previous year, excluding transfers and deaths. Survival time was analyzed using the Cox regression, stratified by site.

RESULTS

Data linkages were performed for 489 PLHIV who had been LTFU at sites in Malaysia (n = 2) and Thailand (n = 4). There were 151 (31%) deaths after being LTFU; the mortality rate was 4.89 per 100 person-years. Risk factors for mortality after being LTFU were older age [41-50 years: hazard ratio (HR) = 1.99, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.08 to 3.68; and older than 50 years: HR = 4.93, 95% CI: 2.63 to 9.22; vs. age 30 years or younger]; receiving NRTI + PI (HR = 1.87, 95% CI: 1.22 to 2.85 vs. NRTI + NNRTI); positive hepatitis C antibody (HR = 2.25, 95% CI: 1.40 to 3.62); and having previous AIDS illness (HR = 1.45, 95% CI: 1.03 to 2.05). An improved survival was seen with a higher CD4 count (CD4 351-500 cells/µL: HR = 0.40, 95%CI: 0.21-0.76; and CD4 >500 cells/µL: HR = 0.43, 95%CI: 0.25-0.75; vs. CD4 ≤200 cells/µL).

CONCLUSIONS

Almost one-third of PLHIV who were LTFU in this cohort had died while out of care, emphasizing the importance of efforts to reengage PLHIV after they have been LTFU and ensure they have access to ongoing ART.

Factors associated with poor outcomes among people living with HIV started on anti-retroviral therapy before and after implementation of “test and treat” program in Coastal Kenya

Objectives

To determine the factors associated with poor outcomes among people living with HIV (PLHIV) started on anti- retroviral therapy before and after implementation of “Test and treat” program in 18 facilities in Coastal Kenya.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study design was used to study PLHIV aged > 15 years and started on ART in the periods of April to August 2016, and April to August 2017, then followed up for 24 months. Primary outcome was retention defined as being alive and on ARVs after 24 months. Death and loss to follow-up were considered as poor outcomes. Kaplan–Meier survival methods were used to describe time to primary outcome. Cox proportional regression analysis was used to determine factors associated with poor outcomes.

Results

86 patients (470 before test and treat, and 316 after test and treat cohorts) were enrolled.

Overall, the median [IQR] age was 39.3 [32.5–47.5] years and 539 (69%) were female. After 24 months, retention rates for the before (68%) and after (64%) test and start groups were similar (absolute difference: -4.0%, 95%CI: -11-3.1, P = 0.27). There were 240(31%, 95%CI 27 to 34%) PLHIV with poor outcomes, 102 (32%) and 138 (29%) occurred among the test and treat group, and delayed treatment patients respectively. In multivariable regression model, test and treat had no significant effect on risk of poor outcomes (aHR = 1.17, 95%CI 0.89–1.54). Increasing age (aHR = 0.98, 95%CI 0.97–0.99), formal employment (aHR = 0.42, 95%CI 0.23–0.76) and not being employed (aHR = 0.53, 95%CI 0.34–0.81) were negatively associated with poor outcomes. The risk of poor outcomes was higher among males compared to female patients (aHR = 1.37, 95%CI 1.03–1.82) and among divorced/separated patients compared to the married (aHR = 1.44, 95%CI 1.04–1.99).

Conclusion

Retention patterns for the “test and treat” cohort were comparable to those who started ART before “test and treat”. Patients who are males, young, divorced/separated, with poor socio-economic status had higher risks for poor clinical outcomes. Interventions targeting PLHIV who are young, male and economically disadvantaged provide an opportunity to improve the long-term outcomes.

Predictors of mortality among people living with HIV in the test and treat era within rural Uganda: a retrospective cohort study

Background: Uganda adopted the test and treat strategy in 2016 where all people living with HIV are initiated on antiretroviral drugs irrespective of CD4 count and WHO clinical stage, as one of the major strategies to end the HIV epidemic by 2030. Despite these measures, there are still more than 2 000 HIV-related death annually. The study aim was to determine the mortality rate and factors predictive of mortality in the test and treat era among people living with HIV in rural Uganda.Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study among people living with HIV enrolled into care between January 2016 and December 2020 at Kabwohe Clinical Research Centre in south-western Uganda. Kaplan-Meier curves were used for survival analysis and Cox regression analysis at bivariate and multivariable levels was used to determine the adjusted hazard ratios (AHR) and identify predictors of death during the study period.Results: Of the 976 participants included in the study, 57.1% (557) were females while 42.9% (419) were males. The median age of the participants was 35 years. The average follow-up period was 2.9 years with an overall mortality rate of 0.99 per 100 person-years at risk. In multivariate analysis, the independent predictors for mortality were: CD4 < 200cells/mm³ (AHR 3.68; 95% CI 1.7-8.1), viral load ≥ 1 000 copies/ml (AHR 5.22; 95% CI 2.4-11.4) and a non-optimised antiretroviral regimen (AHR 4.08; 95% CI 1.5-0.8).Conclusion: There was a low mortality rate observed in this study with a higher risk of death associated with advanced HIV disease and unsuppressed initial viral load. The findings of the study therefore support efforts in early antiretroviral therapy initiation as it increases the likelihood of people living with HIV surviving and can accelerate efforts in ending the HIV epidemic by 2030.

Development and internal validation of the HIV In-hospital Mortality Prediction (HIV-IMP) risk score

BACKGROUND

Despite advances in availability and access to antiretroviral therapy (ART), HIV still ranks as a major cause of global mortality. Hence, the aim of this study was to develop and internally validate a risk score capable of accurately predicting in-hospital mortality in HIV-positive patients requiring hospital admission.

METHODS

Consecutive HIV-positive patients presenting to the Charlotte Maxeke Johannesburg Academic Hospital adult emergency department between 7 July 2017 and 18 October 2018 were prospectively enrolled. Multivariate logistic regression was used to determine parameters for inclusion in the final risk score. Discrimination and calibration were assessed by means of the area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, respectively. Internal validation was conducted using the regular bootstrap technique.

RESULTS

The overall in-hospital mortality rate was 13.6% (n = 166). Eight predictors were included in the final risk score: ART non-adherence or not yet on ART, Glasgow Coma Scale < 15, respiratory rate > 20 breaths/min, oxygen saturation < 90%, white cell count < 4 × 10⁹ /L, creatinine > 120 μmol/L, lactate > 2 mmol/L and albumin < 35 g/L. After internal validation, the risk score maintained good discrimination [AUROC 0.83, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.78-0.88] and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow χ² = 2.26, p = 0.895).

CONCLUSION

The HIV In-hospital Mortality Prediction (HIV-IMP) risk score has overall good discrimination and calibration and is relatively easy to use. Further studies should be aimed at externally validating the score in varying clinical settings.

Longitudinal analysis of sociodemographic, clinical and therapeutic factors of HIV-infected individuals in Kinshasa at antiretroviral therapy initiation during 2006-2017

Background

The benefits of antiretroviral therapy (ART) underpin the recommendations for the early detection of HIV infection and ART initiation. Late initiation (LI) of antiretroviral therapy compromises the benefits of ART both individually and in the community. Indeed, it promotes the transmission of infection and higher HIV-related morbidity and mortality with complicated and costly clinical management.

This study aims to analyze the evolutionary trends in the median CD4 count, the median time to initiation of ART, the proportion of patients with advanced HIV disease at the initiation of ART between 2006 and 2017 and their factors.

Methods and findings

HIV-positive adults (≥ 16 years old) who initiated ART between January 1, 2006 and December 31, 2017 in 25 HIV care facilities in Kinshasa, the capital of DRC, were eligible. The data were processed anonymously. LI is defined as CD4≤350 cells/μl and/or WHO clinical stage III or IV and advanced HIV disease (AHD), as CD4≤200 cells/μl and/or stage WHO clinic IV. Factors associated with advanced HIV disease at ART initiation were analyzed, irrespective of year of enrollment in HIV care, using logistic regression models.

A total of 7278 patients (55% admitted after 2013) with an average age of 40.9 years were included. The majority were composed of women (71%), highly educated women (68%) and married or widowed women (61%). The median CD4 was 213 cells/μl, 76.7% of patients had CD4≤350 cells/μl, 46.1% had CD4≤200 cells/μl, and 59% of patients were at WHO clinical stages 3 or 4. Men had a more advanced clinical stage (p <0.046) and immunosuppression (p<0.0007) than women.

Overall, 70% of patients started ART late, and 25% had AHD. Between 2006 and 2017, the median CD4 count increased from 190 cells/μl to 331 cells/μl (p<0.0001), and the proportions of patients with LI and AHD decreased from 76% to 47% (p< 0.0001) and from 18.7% to 8.9% (p<0.0001), respectively.

The median time to initiation of ART after screening for HIV infection decreased from 40 to zero months (p<0.0001), and the proportion of time to initiation of ART in the month increased from 39 to 93.3% (p<0.0001) in the same period.

The probability of LI of ART was higher in married couples (OR: 1.7; 95% CI: 1.3–2.3) (p<0.0007) and lower in patients with higher education (OR: 0.74; 95% CI: 0.64–0.86) (p<0.0001).

Conclusion

Despite increasingly rapid treatment, the proportions of LI and AHD remain high. New approaches to early detection, the first condition for early ART and a key to ending the HIV epidemic, such as home and work HIV testing, HIV self-testing and screening at the point of service, must be implemented.

A Prognostic Model to Assess Long-Term Survival of Patients on Antiretroviral Therapy: A 15-Year Retrospective Cohort Study in Southwestern China

BACKGROUND

Because there is no assessment tool for survival of people with human immunodeficiency virus (PWH) who received antiretroviral therapy (ART) in rural southwestern China, we aimed to formulate and validate a simple-to-use model to predict long-term overall survival at the initiation of ART.

METHODS

In total, 36 268 eligible participants registered in the Guangxi autonomous region between December 2003 and December 2018 were enrolled and randomized into development and validation cohorts. Predictive variables were determined based on Cox hazard models and specialists' advice. Discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility were measured, respectively.

RESULTS

The prognostic combined 14 variables: sex, age, marital status, infectious route, opportunistic infection, acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS)-related symptoms, body mass index, CD4+ T lymphocyte count, white blood cell, platelet, hemoglobin, serum creatinine, aspartate transaminase, and total bilirubin. Age, aspartate transaminase, and serum creatinine were assigned higher risk scores than that of CD4+ T lymphocytopenia count and having opportunistic infections or AIDS-related symptoms. At 3 time points (1, 3, and 5 years), the area under the curve ranged from 0.75 to 0.81 and the Brier scores ranged from 0.03 to 0.07. The decision curve analysis showed an acceptable clinical net benefit.

CONCLUSIONS

The prognostic model incorporating routine baseline data can provide a useful tool for early risk appraisal and treatment management in ART in rural southwestern China. Moreover, our study underscores the role of non-AIDS-defining events in long-term survival in ART.

High HIV prevalence among decedents received by two high-volume mortuaries in Kisumu, western Kenya, 2019

Background

Accurate data on HIV-related mortality are necessary to evaluate the impact of HIV interventions. In low- and middle-income countries (LMIC), mortality data obtained through civil registration are often of poor quality. Though not commonly conducted, mortuary surveillance is a potential complementary source of data on HIV-associated mortality.

Methods

During April-July 2019, we assessed HIV prevalence, the attributable fraction among the exposed, and the population attributable fraction among decedents received by two high-volume mortuaries in Kisumu County, Kenya, where HIV prevalence in the adult population was estimated at 18% in 2019 with high ART coverage (76%). Stillbirths were excluded. The two mortuaries receive 70% of deaths notified to the Kisumu East civil death registry; this registry captures 45% of deaths notified in Kisumu County. We conducted hospital chart reviews to determine the HIV status of decedents. Decedents without documented HIV status, including those dead on arrival, were tested using HIV antibody tests or polymerase chain reaction (PCR) consistent with national HIV testing guidelines. Decedents aged less than 15 years were defined as children. We estimated annual county deaths by applying weights that incorporated the study period, coverage of deaths, and mortality rates observed in the study.

Results

The two mortuaries received a total of 1,004 decedents during the study period, of which 95.1% (955/1004) were available for study; 89.1% (851/955) of available decedents were enrolled of whom 99.4% (846/851) had their HIV status available from medical records and post-mortem testing. The overall population-based, age- and sex-adjusted mortality rate was 12.4 per 1,000 population. The unadjusted HIV prevalence among decedents was 28.5% (95% confidence interval (CI): 25.5–31.6). The age- and sex-adjusted mortality rate in the HIV-infected population (40.7/1000 population) was four times higher than in the HIV-uninfected population (10.2/1000 population). Overall, the attributable fraction among the HIV-exposed was 0.71 (95% CI: 0.66–0.76) while the HIV population attributable fraction was 0.17 (95% CI: 0.14–0.20). In children the attributable fraction among the exposed and population attributable fraction were 0.92 (95% CI: 0.89–0.94) and 0.11 (95% CI: 0.08–0.15), respectively.

Conclusions

Over one quarter (28.5%) of decedents received by high-volume mortuaries in western Kenya were HIV-positive; overall, HIV was considered the cause of death in 17% of the population (19% of adults and 11% of children). Despite substantial scale-up of HIV services, HIV disease remains a leading cause of death in western Kenya. Despite progress, increased efforts remain necessary to prevent and treat HIV infection and disease.

Predictors of in-hospital mortality among HIV-positive patients presenting with an acute illness to the emergency department

OBJECTIVES

Despite better access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) over recent years, HIV remains a major global cause of mortality. The present study aimed to identify predictors of in-hospital mortality among HIV-positive patients presenting to an emergency department (ED).

METHODS

In this cross-sectional study, HIV-positive patients presenting to the Charlotte Maxeke Johannesburg Academic Hospital adult ED between 07 July 2017 and 18 October 2018 were prospectively enrolled. Data were compared between participants who survived to hospital discharge and those who died. The data were further subjected to univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses to determine variables that were associated with in-hospital mortality.

RESULTS

Of a total of 1224 participants, the in-hospital mortality was 13.6% (n = 166). On multivariate analysis, respiratory rate > 20 breaths/min [odds ratio (OR) = 1.90, P = 0.012], creatinine > 120 μmol/L (OR = 1.97, P = 0.006), oxygen saturation < 90% (OR = 2.09, P = 0.011), white cell count < 4.0 × 10⁹ /L (OR = 2.09, P = 0.008), ART non-adherence or not yet on ART (OR = 2.39, P = 0.012), Glasgow Coma Scale < 15 (OR = 2.53, P = 0.000), albumin < 35 g/L (OR = 2.61, P = 0.002), lactate > 2 mmol/L (OR = 4.83, P = 0.000) and cryptococcal meningitis (OR = 6.78, P = 0.000) were significantly associated with in-hospital mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Routine clinical and laboratory parameters are useful predictors of in-hospital mortality in HIV-positive patients presenting to the ED with an acute illness. These parameters may be of value in guiding clinical decision-making, directing the appropriate use of resources and influencing patient disposition, and may also be useful in developing an outcome prediction tool.

Effect of the Test and Treat Strategy on Mortality Among HIV-Positive Adult Clients on Antiretroviral Treatment in Public Hospitals of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Background

The primary goal of antiretroviral therapy is to prevent human immune deficiency virus (HIV)-related morbidity and mortality. Deferring antiretroviral therapy (ART) until CD4 counts decline puts individuals with HIV at risk of HIV-related morbidity and mortality.

Objective

This study aims to assess the effect of the test and treat strategy on mortality among HIV-positive clients on ART in public hospitals in Addis Ababa.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study was conducted at five selected public hospitals in Addis Ababa. A cohort of 216 ART clients taken as an exposed group (test and treat" strategy) from 2017 to 2019 and 216 ART clients as an unexposed group taken from 2014 to 2017; totally, 432 clients were included in the study. Multivariate Cox regression was used to estimate the effect of the test and treat strategy on the survival of ART clients adjusting for other covariates.

Results

The 432 clients contributed to a total of 1025.17 person-years follow-up. Ninety-one (21.06%) of them died, 14.3% were unexposed and 6.7% were exposed (test and treat). The incidence of death was 92.4 and 81.8/1000 person-years in the unexposed group and exposed group, respectively, with an overall mortality rate of 88.8/1000 person-years. Besides, test and treat strategy (AHR: 0.31; 95% CI: 0.19, 0.52), baseline CD4 counts >350 cells/mm3 (AHR 0.40; 95%: CI: 0.20, 0.80), bedridden functional status (AHR 2.46; 95% CI: 1.41, 4.27), poor adherence (AHR 3.25; 95% CI: 1.410-7.51), moderate malnutrition on last visit (AHR 2.56; 95% CI: 1.30-5.04) and staying on original regimen (AHR 4.68; 95% CI 2.72, 8.07) were independent predictors of mortality.

Conclusion

Mortality among HIV patients on treatment decreased significantly since the start of the test and treat strategy. Therefore, test and treat strategy should be strengthened in all public and private facilities throughout the country.

Risk factors for loss to follow-up from antiretroviral therapy programmes in low-income and middle-income countries

INTRODUCTION

Loss to follow-up (LTFU) rates from antiretroviral treatment (ART) programmes in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) are high, leading to poor treatment outcomes and onward transmission of HIV. Knowledge of risk factors is required to address LTFU. In this systematic review, risk factors for LTFU are identified and meta-analyses performed.

METHODS

PubMed, Embase, Psycinfo and Cochrane were searched for studies that report on potential risk factors for LTFU in adults who initiated ART in LMICs. Meta-analysis was performed for risk factors evaluated by at least five studies. Pooled effect estimates and their 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated using random effect models with inverse variance weights. Risk of bias was assessed and sensitivity analyses performed.

RESULTS

Eighty studies were included describing a total of 1 605 320 patients of which 87.4% from sub-Saharan Africa. The following determinants were significantly associated with an increased risk of LTFU in meta-analysis: male sex, older age, being single, unemployment, lower educational status, advanced WHO stage, low weight, worse functional status, poor adherence, nondisclosure, not receiving cotrimoxazole prophylactic therapy when indicated, receiving care at secondary level and more recent year of initiation. No association was seen for CD4 cell count, tuberculosis at baseline, regimen, and geographical setting.

CONCLUSION

There are several sociodemographic, clinical, patient behaviour, treatment-related and system level risk factors for LTFU from ART programs. Knowledge of risk factors should be used to better target retention interventions and develop tools to identify high-risk patients.