Evaluation of model performance to predict survival after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt placement

Shunt dysfunction and mortality after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) in patients with portal hypertension

OBJECTIVES

Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) is a catheter-based, minimally invasive procedure to reduce portal hypertension. The aim of the study was to investigate dysfunction and mortality after TIPS and to identify factors associated with these events.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of 834 patients undergoing TIPS implantation in a single center from 1993-2018 was performed. Cumulative incidence curves were estimated, and frailty models were used to assess associations between potentially influential variables and time to dysfunction or death.

RESULTS

1-, 2-, and 5-year mortality rates were 20.9% (confidence interval (CI) 17.7-24.1), 22.5% (CI 19.1-25.8), and 25.0% (CI: 21.1-28.8), 1-year, 2-year, and 5-year dysfunction rates were 28.4% (CI 24.6-32.3), 38.9% (CI 34.5-43.3), and 52.4% (CI 47.2-57.6). The use of covered stents is a protective factor regarding TIPS dysfunction (hazard ratio (HR) 0.47, CI 0.33-0.68) but does not play a major role in survival (HR 0.95, CI 0.58-1.56). Risk factors for mortality are rather TIPS in an emergency setting (HR 2.78, CI 1.19-6.50), a previous TIPS dysfunction (HR 2.43, CI 1.28-4.62), and an increased Freiburg score (HR 1.45, CI 0.93-2.28).

CONCLUSION

The use of covered stents is an important protective factor regarding TIPS dysfunction. Whereas previous TIPS dysfunction, emergency TIPS implantation, and an elevated Freiburg score are associated with increased mortality. Awareness of risk factors could contribute to a better selection of patients who may benefit from a TIPS procedure and improve clinical follow-up with regard to early detection of thrombosis/stenosis.

CRITICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT

The use of covered stents reduces the risk of dysfunction after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS). TIPS dysfunction, emergency TIPS placement, and a high Freiburg score are linked to higher mortality rates in TIPS patients.

KEY POINTS

The risk of dysfunction is higher for uncovered stents compared to covered stents. Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt dysfunction increases the risk of instantaneous death after the intervention. A higher Freiburg score increases the rate of death after the intervention. Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt implantations in emergency settings reduce survival rates.

A nomogram for predicting prognosis in patients with transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt creation based on deep learning-derived spleen volume-to-platelet ratio

OBJECTIVES

The objective of our study was to develop a nomogram to predict post-transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) survival in patients with cirrhosis based on CT images.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study included patients who had received TIPS operation at the Wenzhou Medical University First Affiliated Hospital between November 2013 and April 2017. To predict prognosis, a nomogram and Web-based probability were developed to assess the overall survival (OS) rates at 1, 3, and 5 years based on multivariate analyses. With deep learning algorithm, the automated measurement of liver and spleen volumes can be realized. We assessed the predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the nomogram using the concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

Age, total bilirubin, and spleen volume-to-platelet ratio (SVPR) were identified as the independent risk factors for OS. The nomogram was constructed based on the above risk factors. The C-index (0.80, 0.74, 0.70), ROC curve (area under curve: 0.828, 0.761, 0.729), calibration curve, and DCA showed that nomogram good at predictive value, stability, and clinical benefit in the prediction of 1-, 3-, 5-year OS in patients with TIPS creation.

CONCLUSIONS

We constructed a nomogram for predicting prognosis in patients with TIPS creation based on risk factors. The nomogram can help clinicians in identifying patients with poor prognosis, eventually facilitating earlier treatment and selecting suitable patients before TIPS.

ADVANCES IN KNOWLEDGE

This study developed the first nomogram based on SVPR to predict the prognosis of patients treated with TIPS. The nomogram could help clinician in non-invasive decision-making.

Development of a new Cox model for predicting long-term survival in hepatitis cirrhosis patients underwent transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunts

BACKGROUND

Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) placement is a procedure that can effectively treat complications of portal hypertension, such as variceal bleeding and refractory ascites. However, there have been no specific studies on predicting long-term survival after TIPS placement.

AIM

To establish a model to predict long-term survival in patients with hepatitis cirrhosis after TIPS.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis was conducted on a cohort of 224 patients who underwent TIPS implantation. Through univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses, various factors were examined for their ability to predict survival at 6 years after TIPS. Consequently, a composite score was formulated, encompassing the indication, shunt reasonability, portal venous pressure gradient (PPG) after TIPS, percentage decrease in portal venous pressure (PVP), indocyanine green retention rate at 15 min (ICGR15) and total bilirubin (Tbil) level. Furthermore, the performance of the newly developed Cox (NDC) model was evaluated in an internal validation cohort and compared with that of a series of existing models.

RESULTS

The indication (variceal bleeding or ascites), shunt reasonability (reasonable or unreasonable), ICGR15, postoperative PPG, percentage of PVP decrease and Tbil were found to be independent factors affecting long-term survival after TIPS placement. The NDC model incorporated these parameters and successfully identified patients at high risk, exhibiting a notably elevated mortality rate following the TIPS procedure, as observed in both the training and validation cohorts. Additionally, in terms of predicting the long-term survival rate, the performance of the NDC model was significantly better than that of the other four models [Child-Pugh, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), MELD-sodium and the Freiburg index of post-TIPS survival].

CONCLUSION

The NDC model can accurately predict long-term survival after the TIPS procedure in patients with hepatitis cirrhosis, help identify high-risk patients and guide follow-up management after TIPS implantation.

Prognostic models in end stage liver disease

Cirrhosis is a major cause of death worldwide, and is associated with significant health care costs. Even if milestones have been recently reached in understanding and managing end-stage liver disease (ESLD), the disease course remains somewhat difficult to prognosticate. These difficulties have already been acknowledged already in the past, when scores instead of single parameters have been proposed as valuable tools for short-term prognosis. These standard scores, like Child Turcotte Pugh (CTP) and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, relying on biochemical and clinical parameters, are still widely used in clinical practice to predict short- and medium-term prognosis. The MELD score, which remains an accurate, easy-to-use, objective predictive score, has received significant modifications over time, in order to improve its performance especially in the liver transplant (LT) setting, where it is widely used as prioritization tool. Although many attempts to improve prognostic accuracy have failed because of lack of replicability or poor benefit with the comparator (often the MELD score or its variants), few scores have been recently proposed and validated especially for subgroups of patients with ESLD, as those with acute-on-chronic liver failure. Artificial intelligence will probably help hepatologists in the near future to fill the current gaps in predicting disease course and long-term prognosis of such patients.

Predictive Accuracy Comparison of Prognostic Scoring Systems for Survival in Patients Undergoing TIPS Placement: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES

This meta-analysis aimed to evaluate the performance of different risk assessment models (RAMs) for survival after Transjugular Intrahepatic Portosystemic Shunt (TIPS) in patients with cirrhotic portal hypertension.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A systematic search of PubMed, WOS, Embase, Cochrane, and CNKI from inception to February 2023 was conducted. We comprehensively reviewed and aggregated data from numerous studies covering prevalent RAMs such as Child-Turcotte-Pugh, the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), MELD-Sodium (MELD-Na), the Freiburg Index of Post-TIPS Survival (FIPS), Bilirubin-platelet, Chronic Liver Failure Consortium Acute Decompensation score, and Albumin-Bilirubin grade across different timeframes. For this study, short-term is defined as outcomes within a year while long-term refers to outcomes beyond one year. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC) curve or Concordance Statistics was chosen as the metric to assess predictive capacity for mortality outcomes across six predetermined time intervals. Mean effect sizes at various time points were determined using robust variance estimation.

RESULTS

MELD consistently stood out as a primary short-term survival predictor, particularly for 1 month (± 2 weeks) (AUC: 0.72) and 3 months of (± 1 month) survival (AUC: 0.72). MELD-Na showed the best long-term predictive ability, with an AUC of 0.70 at 3.5 years (± 1.5 years). FIPS performed well for 6 months of (± 2 months) survival (AUC: 0.68) and overall transplant-free survival (AUC: 0.75). Efficacy nuances were observed in RAMs when applied to particular subgroups. Meta-regression emphasized the potential predictor overlaps in models like MELD and FIPS.

CONCLUSION

This meta-analysis underscores the MELD score as the premier predictor for short-term survival following TIPS. Meanwhile, the FIPS score and MELD-Na model exhibit potential in forecasting long-term outcomes. The study accentuates the significance of RAM selection for enhancing patient outcomes and advocates for additional research to corroborate these findings and fine-tune risk assessment in TIPS.

Updates on the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Score and Impact on the Liver Transplant Waiting List: A Narrative Review

The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score is an established indicator of cirrhosis severity and a predictor of morbidity and mortality in patients undergoing transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) creation and for allocation in liver transplantation. Since the adoption of the score, its use has been expanded to multiple new indications requiring model modifications, including relevant clinical and demographic variables, to increase predictive accuracy. The purpose of this report is to provide an update on the modifications made to the MELD score, comparing their performance with C statistics, advantages and disadvantages, and impact on mortality at 3 months after placing a TIPS or awaiting liver transplantation.

A comprehensive review of prognostic scoring systems to predict survival after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt placement

Patient prognosis after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) placement is relatively poor and highly heterogeneous; therefore, a prognostic scoring system is essential for survival prediction and risk stratification. Conventional scores include the Child–Turcotte–Pugh (CTP) and model for end‐stage liver disease (MELD) scores. The CTP score was created empirically and displayed a high correlation with post‐TIPS survival. However, the inclusion of subjective parameters and the use of discrete cut‐offs limit its utility. The advantages of the MELD score include its statistical validation and objective and readily available predictors that contribute to its broad application in clinical practice to predict post‐TIPS outcomes. In addition, multiple modifications of the MELD score, by incorporating additional predictors (e.g., MELD‐Sodium and MELD‐Sarcopenia scores), adjusting coefficients (recalibrated MELD score), or combined (MELD 3.0), have been proposed to improve the prognostic ability of the standard MELD score. Despite several updates to conventional scores, a prognostic score has been proposed (based on contemporary data) specifically for outcome prediction after TIPS placement. However, this novel score (the Freiburg index of post‐TIPS survival, FIPS) exhibited inconsistent discrimination in external validation studies, and its superiority over conventional scores remains undetermined. Additionally, several tools display potential for application in specific TIPS indications (e.g., bilirubin‐platelet grade for refractory ascites), and biomarkers of systemic inflammation, nutritional status, liver disease progression, and cardiac decompensation may provide additional value, but require further validation. Future studies should consider the effect of TIPS placement when exploring predictors, as TIPS is a pathophysiological approach that substantially alters systemic hemodynamics and ameliorates bacterial translocation and malnutrition.

A novel score predicts mortality after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt: MOTS - Modified TIPS Score

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The high risk for severe shunting-related post-interventional complications demands a stringent selection of candidates for transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS). We aimed to develop a simple and reliable tool to accurately predict early post-TIPS mortality.

METHODS

144 cases of TIPS implantation were retrospectively analysed. Using univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis of factors predicting mortality within 90 days after TIPS, a score integrating urea, international normalized ratio (INR) and bilirubin was developed. The Modified TIPS-Score (MOTS) ranges from 0 to 3 points: INR >1.6, urea >71 mg/dl and bilirubin >2.2 mg/dl account for one point each. Additionally, MOTS was tested in an external validation cohort (n = 187) and its performance was compared to existing models.

RESULTS

Modified TIPS-Score achieved a significant prognostic discrimination reflected by 90-day mortality of 8% in patients with MOTS 0-1 and 60% in patients with MOTS 2-3 (p < .001). Predictive performance (area under the curve) of MOTS was accurate (c = 0.845 [0.73-0.96], p < .001), also in patients with renal insufficiency (c = 0.830 [0.64-1.00], p = .02) and in patients with refractory ascites (c = 0.949 [0.88-1.00], p < .001), which are subgroups with particular room for improvement of post-TIPS mortality prediction. The results were reproducible in the validation cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

Modified TIPS-Score is a novel, practicable tool to predict post-TIPS mortality, that can significantly simplify clinical decision making. Its practical applicability should be further investigated.

North American Practice-Based Recommendations for Transjugular Intrahepatic Portosystemic Shunts in Portal Hypertension

Complications of portal hypertension, including ascites, gastrointestinal bleeding, hepatic hydrothorax, and hepatic encephalopathy, are associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Despite few high-quality randomized controlled trials to guide therapeutic decisions, transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) creation has emerged as a crucial therapeutic option to treat complications of portal hypertension. In North America, the decision to perform TIPS involves gastroenterologists, hepatologists, and interventional radiologists, but TIPS creation is performed by interventional radiologists. This is in contrast to other parts of the world where TIPS creation is performed primarily by hepatologists. Thus, the successful use of TIPS in North America is dependent on a multidisciplinary approach and technical expertise, so as to optimize outcomes. Recently, new procedural techniques, TIPS stent technology, and indications for TIPS have emerged. As a result, practices and outcomes vary greatly across institutions and significant knowledge gaps exist. In this consensus statement, the Advancing Liver Therapeutic Approaches group critically reviews the application of TIPS in the management of portal hypertension. Advancing Liver Therapeutic Approaches convened a multidisciplinary group of North American experts from hepatology, interventional radiology, transplant surgery, nephrology, cardiology, pulmonology, and hematology to critically review existing literature and develop practice-based recommendations for the use of TIPS in patients with any cause of portal hypertension in terms of candidate selection, procedural best practices and, post-TIPS management; and to develop areas of consensus for TIPS indications and the prevention of complications. Finally, future research directions are identified related to TIPS for the management of portal hypertension.

25 years of experience with transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS): changes in patient selection and procedural aspects

Background

TIPS is an established treatment for portal hypertension. The aim was to analyze how patient selection for TIPS implantation and procedural aspects have changed over 25 years. Routinely collected demographic, clinical, laboratory, and procedural data of 835 patients treated with TIPS in a single center were used. Time trends over the observational period from 1993 to 2018 were retrospectively analyzed. Descriptive statistical analysis was performed.

Results

The most common indication for TIPS implantation has changed significantly from secondary prevention of variceal hemorrhage in the early years to treatment of recurrent ascites. During the observation period, increasingly more severely ill patients became TIPS candidates. There was little change in MELD scores over this period (in total median 13.00; IQR 10.00–18.00). The proportion of patients with Child–Pugh C cirrhosis increased. The most frequent underlying diseases in total were alcohol-related liver disease (66.5%) and viral hepatitis (11.9%). However, shares of cryptogenic liver cirrhosis, autoimmune hepatitis, and NASH increased over time. The proportion of patients post liver transplant also increased. While bare metal stents were standard in the past, use of covered stents increased. The success rate of TIPS (defined by successful implantation and a decrease in the portosystemic pressure gradient ≤ 12 mmHg) increased significantly over time. The total success rate according to this definition was 84.9%.

Conclusion

The results of our analysis reflect technical developments in TIPS, especially in terms of stent material and gains in clinical experience, particularly regarding indications and patient selection for TIPS implantation.

Prognostic value of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio in cirrhosis patients undergoing transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte-ratio (NLR) is used as an inflammatory index and has proven to be an accurate prognostic indicator for decompensated cirrhotics; however, its role in patients undergoing transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) has not been evaluated. We examined whether NLR is associated with mortality in decompensated cirrhosis patients undergoing TIPS.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective review of 268 decompensated cirrhotics who underwent TIPS from January 2011 to December 2015 at an academic medical center. NLR, patient demographics, manifestations of cirrhosis, TIPS indications and mortality were recorded. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses for prognostic factors associated with 30-day and 90-day post TIPS mortality were performed.

RESULTS

A total of 129 (48%) patients received TIPS for refractory ascites with 79 (29%) for variceal bleeding, 14 (5%) for hepatic hydrothorax, and 46 (17%) for other indications. Cirrhosis etiology included hepatitis C (36%), alcohol (28%), nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (20%), or other (15%). Median NLR was 4.42 (IQR 2.75-7.19). Univariate and multivariate analysis showed NLR as an independent predictive factor of 30-day and 90-day mortality. Furthermore, in patients with a Model of End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) ≤ 15, NLR is superior to MELD/MELD-Na score in predicting 30-day and 90-day mortality. In patients with MELD > 15, MELD/MELD-Na score is superior to NLR.

CONCLUSION

Our data indicate that elevated NLR independently predicts 30-day and 90-day mortality. In patients with a MELD ≤ 15, NLR is a better prognostic factor than MELD or MELD-Na in predicting short-term mortality.

Low Serum Cholinesterase Identifies Patients With Worse Outcome and Increased Mortality After TIPS

Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) is an effective treatment for portal hypertension-related complications. However, careful selection of patients is crucial. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic value of serum cholinesterase (CHE) for outcomes and mortality after TIPS insertion. In this multicenter study, 389 consecutive patients with cirrhosis receiving a TIPS at Hannover Medical School, University Hospital Essen, or Medical University of Vienna were included. The Hannover cohort (n = 200) was used to initially explore the role of CHE, whereas patients from Essen and Vienna served as a validation cohort (n = 189). Median age of the patients was 58 years and median Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score was 12. Multivariable analysis identified MELD score (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.16; P < 0.001) and CHE (HR: 0.61; P = 0.008) as independent predictors for 1-year survival. Using the Youden Index, a CHE of 2.5 kU/L was identified as optimal threshold to predict post-TIPS survival in the Hannover cohort (P < 0.001), which was confirmed in the validation cohort (P = 0.010). CHE < 2.5 kU/L was significantly associated with development of acute-on-chronic liver failure (P < 0.001) and hepatic encephalopathy (P = 0.006). Of note, CHE was also significantly linked to mortality in the subgroup of patients with refractory ascites (P = 0.001) as well as in patients with high MELD scores (P = 0.012) and with high-risk FIPS scores (P = 0.004). After propensity score matching, mortality was similar in patients with ascites and CHE < 2.5 kU/L if treated by TIPS or by paracentesis. Contrarily, in patients with CHE ≥ 2.5 kU/L survival was significantly improved by TIPS as compared to treatment with paracentesis (P < 0.001). Conclusion: CHE is significantly associated with mortality and complications after TIPS insertion. Therefore, we suggest that CHE should be evaluated as an additional parameter for selecting patients for TIPS implantation.

FIPS Score for Prediction of Survival After TIPS Placement: External Validation and Comparison With Traditional Risk Scores in a Cohort of Chinese Patients With Cirrhosis

Background: Various prognostic scores for patients with chronic liver disease have been applied for predicting survival after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) placement. In 2021, the Freiburg index of post-TIPS survival (FIPS) score was developed specifically for predicting survival after TIPS placement. The score has exhibited variable performance in initial investigations conducted in German and U.S. cohorts. Objective: To compare utility of FIPS score and traditional scoring systems for predicting post-TIPS survival in a cohort of Chinese patients with cirrhosis. Methods: This retrospective validation study compared four prognostic scores [Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), sodium MELD (MELD-Na), CLIF Consortium Acute Decompensation (CLIF-C AD), and FIPS] in 383 patients (mean age, 54.9±11.7 years; 249 men, 134 women) with cirrhosis who underwent TIPS placement (341 for variceal bleeding, 42 for refractory ascites) at Wuhan Union Hospital between January 2016 and August 2021. Model performance was assessed in terms of discrimination (using concordance index) and calibration (using Brier score and observed-to-predicted ratios) for 6-, 12- and 24-month post-TIPS survival. Discrimination was further stratified by TIPS indication. Risk stratification was performed using previously proposed cutoffs for each score. Results: During postprocedural follow-up, 72 (18.8%) patients died. Discriminative performance for 6-month survival was highest for FIPS score (concordance index 0.784), followed by CLIF-C AD (0.743), MELD-Na (0.699), and MELD (0.694). FIPS score also showed highest calibration in terms of higher Brier scores and observed-to-predicted ratios closer to 1, as well as strongest prognostic performance for 12-month and 24-month survival and in subgroups of patients who underwent TIPS placement for either variceal bleeding or refractory ascites (except for similar performance of FIPS and CLIF-C AD in refractory ascites subgroup). When applying prior cutoffs, among patients classified as low risk by the other scores, further application of FIPS score was significantly associated with survival. Conclusion: FIPS score outperformed traditional risk scores in predicting post-TIPS survival in patients with cirrhosis. Clinical Impact: The findings support utility of FIPS score in differentiating patients who are optimal candidates for TIPS placement versus those at high risk who may instead warrant close monitoring and early liver transplantation.

Prediction of Patient Survival with Psoas Muscle Density Following Transjugular Intrahepatic Portosystemic Shunts: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Background

Psoas muscle density (PMD) as a nutritional indicator is a tool to evaluate sarcopenia, which is commonly diagnosed in patients with liver cirrhosis. However, there are limited data on its role in patients who have received a transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS). We aimed to determine the utility of PMD in predicting mortality of patients with TIPS implantation and to compare the clinical value of PMD, Child-Pugh score, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, and MELD paired with serum sodium measurement (MELD-Na) score in predicting post-TIPS survival in 1 year.

Material/Methods

This retrospective study included 273 patients who met the criteria for study inclusion. All participants underwent computed tomography (CT) scans, Child-Pugh score evaluation, MELD-Na scoring, and MELD scoring. Post-TIPS survival time was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier survival curve. The prognostic values of scoring models such as the Child-Pugh score, MELD, MELD-Na, and PMD were evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curves.

Results

During the 1-year follow-up period, 31 of 273 (11.36%) post-TIPS patients died. Multivariate analysis identified PMD as an independent protective factor. PMD showed a good ability to predict the occurrence of an endpoint within 1 year after TIPS. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves for PMD, Child-Pugh score, MELD score, and MELD-Na for predicting mortality were, respectively, 0.72 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.663–0.773), 0.59 (95% CI: 0.531–0.651), 0.60 (95% CI: 0.535–0.655), and 0.58 (95% CI: 0.487–0.608).

Conclusions

PMD has appreciable clinical value for predicting the mortality of patients with TIPS implantation. In addition, PMD is superior to established scoring systems for identifying high-risk patients with a poor prognosis.

Decision making for transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic stent shunt in refractory ascites and variceal bleeding: MELD, or not MELD, that is the question

PURPOSE

The model of end-stage liver disease (MELD) score has been shown to predict 3-month prognosis following transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic stent shunt (TIPS) in liver cirrhosis; however, that score was derived from a mixed cohort, including patients with refractory ascites and variceal bleeding. This study re-evaluates the role of the MELD score and focuses on differences between both groups of patients.

METHODS

A total of 301 patients (192 male and 109 female) received TIPS, 213 because of refractory ascites and 88 because of variceal bleeding. Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were performed to identify predictors of mortality and area under the receiver operator characteristics (AUROC) were used to assess the prognostic capacity of the MELD score and of the results of predictors of the multivariate analyses.

RESULTS

In refractory ascites, age, bilirubin and albumin were independent predictors of mortality. In variceal bleeding, emergency TIPS during ongoing bleeding, concomitant grade III ascites, history of hepatic encephalopathy, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, bilirubin and platelet count proved significant. AUROCs of the MELD score for 3-month survival yielded 0.543 and 0.836 for refractory ascites and variceal bleeding, respectively (P < 0.001). For 1-year survival, the respective AUROCs yielded 0.533 and 0.767 (P < 0.001). In contrast to MELD, the AUROCs based on the calculated risk scores of this study resulted in 0.660 and 0.876 for 3-month survival, and 0.665 and 0.835 for 1-year survival in patients with ascites and variceal bleeding, respectively.

CONCLUSION

In refractory ascites, the prognostic capability of MELD is significantly inferior compared to variceal bleeding. The results of our multivariate analyses and AUROC calculations corroborate the impact of different prognostic variables in patients undergoing TIPS for ascites and variceal bleeding.

Beyond MELD Predictors of Post TIPSS Acute Liver Failure the Lesson Learned

TIPSS is safe and effective procedure for relieving portal hypertension by creating a low resistance portosystemic shunt. TIPSS reduces portal perfusion by 80 to 100% which then gradually gets partially compensated by increased flow from hepatic artery. Post TIPSS liver function shows brief deterioration which tends to start recovering in few weeks. However, progressive liver failure requiring emergency transplant or death remains a serious concern after TIPSS creation. The causes of post TIPSS liver failure are diverse and difficult to predict. Due to its rarity the definition of post TIPSS liver decompensation is also not well described in literature. Till date MELDNa score has been considered as the most reliable predictor of post TIPSS liver decompensation. In common practice post TIPSS liver failure is less likely in patients with model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score less than 18. We have experienced two unusual cases of post-TIPSS liver failure (PTLF) in patients with initial acceptable/low MELD score and the importance of non-MELD factors that may negatively influence post TIPSS outcome. Most of these can be routinely investigated prior to creating shunt thereby identifying patients at high risk of developing PTLF.

Enzymatic liver function measured by LiMAx is superior to current standard methods in predicting transplant-free survival after TIPS implantation

Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) is one of the main treatment options in patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis but is still associated with partly severe complications. For adequate patient selection, prognostic parameters are of crucial importance. The liver maximum capacity (LiMAx) breath test measures enzymatic liver function and could potentially represent an efficient prognostic marker. We therefore aimed to assess the role of LiMAx in predicting survival of TIPS patients in a prospective analysis. LiMAx was performed for patients who underwent TIPS implantation between October 2016 and February 2018. Associations with transplant-free survival after 24 weeks were assessed by logistic regression. A total number of 30 patients were included, of whom seven received liver transplantation (N = 2) or died (N = 5) during follow-up. LiMAx values after (P = 0.01, OR = 1.24, 95% CI = 1.04-1.47) and before (P = 0.03, OR 1.21, 95% CI = 1.02-1.43) TIPS implantation and MELD score (P = 0.03, OR = 0.79, 95% CI = 0.63-0.98) were significantly associated with transplant-free survival according to univariate logistic regression. In AUROC analysis, LiMAx at day one after TIPS (sensitivity 85.7%, specificity 78.3%, AUROC 0.85, cut-off ≤ 165 µg/kg/h), LiMAx value at the day before TIPS (sensitivity 100%, specificity 73.9%, AUROC 0.82, cut-off ≤ 205 µg/kg/h) and MELD score (sensitivity 71.4%, specificity 73.9%, AUROC 0.82, cut-off ≥ 15) had the highest prognostic accuracy. LiMAx values prior and after TIPS procedure seem to be good prognostic parameters regarding prediction of transplant-free survival of patients undergoing TIPS implantation.

Management of the major complications of cirrhosis: Beyond guidelines

Along with a growing understanding of the pathophysiology of cirrhosis and its complications, new therapies and management strategies have emerged in recent years. Many of these advances have helped inform the current EASL clinical practice guidelines¹ on the management of some of the key complications of cirrhosis, such as ascites, variceal bleeding and infection. However, there are still some aspects of management where the evidence base is less clear, and/or where opinions amongst practitioners remain divided. Some of these more controversial areas are explored in this section, wherein we present evidence culminating in a suggested management approach based on expert opinion and extending beyond the current guidelines.

Prognostic Value of the CLIF-C AD Score in Patients With Implantation of Transjugular Intrahepatic Portosystemic Shunt

Prognostic assessment of patients with liver cirrhosis allocated for implantation of a transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) is a challenging task in clinical practice. The aim of our study was to assess the prognostic value of the CLIF-C AD (Acute Decompensation) score in patients with TIPS implantation. Transplant-free survival (TFS) and 3-month mortality were reviewed in 880 patients who received de novo TIPS implantation for the treatment of cirrhotic portal hypertension. The prognostic value of the CLIF-C AD score was compared with the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score, Child-Pugh score, and albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score using Harrell's C concordance index. The median TFS after TIPS implantation was 40.0 (34.6-45.4) months. The CLIF-C AD score (c = 0.635 [0.609-0.661]) was superior in the prediction of TFS in comparison to MELD score (c = 0.597 [0.570-0.623], P = 0.006), Child-Pugh score (c = 0.579 [0.552-0.606], P < 0.001), and ALBI score (c = 0.573 [0.545-0.600], P < 0.001). However, the CLIF-C AD score did not perform significantly better than the MELD-Na score (c = 0.626 [0.599-0.653], P = 0.442). There were no profound differences in the scores' ranking with respect to indication for TIPS implantation, stent type, or underlying liver disease. Subgroup analyses revealed that a CLIF-C AD score >45 was a predictor of 3-month mortality in the supposed low-risk group of patients with a MELD score ≤12 (14.7% vs. 5.1%, P < 0.001). Conclusion: The CLIF-C AD score is suitable for prognostic assessment of patients with cirrhotic portal hypertension receiving TIPS implantation. In the prediction of TFS, the CLIF-C AD score is superior to MELD score, Child-Pugh score, and ALBI score but not the MELD-Na score.

Small-diameter TIPS combined with splenic artery embolization in the management of refractory ascites in cirrhotic patients

PURPOSE

Maximally decreasing portal pressures with transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) is associated with improved ascites control but also increased encephalopathy incidence. Since splenic venous flow contributes to portal hypertension, we assessed if combining small-diameter TIPS with splenic artery embolization could improve ascites while minimizing encephalopathy.

METHODS

Fifty-five patients underwent TIPS creation for refractory ascites. Subjects underwent creation of 8 mm TIPS followed by proximal splenic artery embolization (group A, n=8), or of 8 mm (group B, n=6) or 10 mm TIPS (group C, n=41) without splenic embolization. Data were retrospectively reviewed.

RESULTS

In group A, median portosystemic gradient decreased from 19 mmHg to 9 mmHg after TIPS, and 8 mmHg after subsequent splenic artery embolization. In groups B and C, gradient decreased from 15 mmHg to 8 mmHg and 16 mmHg to 6 mmHg. All patients except for one in group A and two in C had greater than 50% reduction in the number of paracenteses in 3 months. Any postprocedural encephalopathy incidence was 62%, 50%, 83% in groups A, B, and C, respectively. Overall, 20% of subjects with 10 mm TIPS required TIPS reduction/closure compared to 7% of subjects with 8 mm TIPS.

CONCLUSION

We found that 8 mm diameter TIPS provided similar ascites control compared to 10 mm TIPS regardless of splenic embolization. While more patients with 10 mm TIPS required reduction/closure for severe encephalopathy, the study was underpowered for definitive assessment. Splenic embolization might have the potential to further decrease portosystemic gradient and ascites as an alternative to dilation of TIPS to 10 mm minimizing the risk of encephalopathy, but larger studies are warranted.

Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt and alfapump® system for refractory ascites in liver cirrhosis: Outcomes and complications

BACKGROUND

Treatment of refractory ascites in liver cirrhosis is challenging. Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt and alfapump® have been proposed for the management, but few data comparing both exist.

AIMS

The aim of this study was to evaluate the characteristics and outcomes of patients treated with transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt and alfapump® for refractory ascites at our centre.

METHODS

All consecutive patients were retrospectively reviewed for baseline characteristics, efficacy of treatment, complications and survival.

RESULTS

In total, 19 patients with transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt and 40 patients with alfapump® were included. Patients with transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt had better liver function and less hepatic encephalopathy at baseline. Fifty-eight per cent of patients developed hepatic encephalopathy in the first six months after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt. In patients with alfapump®, renal function decreased and 58% developed prerenal impairment and 43% hepatorenal syndrome in the first six months. Alfapump® patients with new catheters required less reinterventions (26% versus 57% with old catheters, p = 0.049). Transplant-free survival at 1 year was 25% in alfapump® and 65% in transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt. Hepatic encephalopathy predicted transplant-free survival in patients with alfapump® (hazard ratio 2.00, 95% confidence interval 0.99-4.02, p = 0.05). In a sensitivity analysis comparing patients with similar liver function, the rate of hepatorenal syndrome and prerenal impairment was higher in patients with alfapump® and these patients were hospitalised more frequently, whereas the rate of hepatic encephalopathy was similar in both treatment groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Both transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt and alfapump® were effective treatments for refractory ascites in cirrhosis. Patients treated with transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt had a better one-year transplant-free survival but had less negative prognostic factors at baseline. Selecting patients without hepatic encephalopathy prior to implantation of an alfapump® might improve transplant-free survival.

Emergent Transjugular Intrahepatic Portosystemic Shunt Creation in Acute Variceal Bleeding

Emergent transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) creation is most commonly employed in the setting of acute variceal hemorrhage. Given a propensity for decompensation, these patients often require a multidisciplinary, multimodal approach involving prompt diagnosis, pharmacologic therapy, and endoscopic intervention. While successful in the majority of cases, failure to medically control initial bleeding can prompt interventional radiology consultation for emergent portal decompression via TIPS creation. This article discusses TIPS creation in emergent, acute variceal hemorrhage, reviewing the natural history of gastroesophageal varices, presentation and diagnosis of acute variceal hemorrhage, pharmacologic therapy, endoscopic approaches, patient selection and risk stratification for TIPS, technical considerations for TIPS creation, adjunctive embolotherapy, and the role of salvage TIPS versus early TIPS in acute variceal hemorrhage.