Performance of the TIMI risk score in predicting mortality after primary percutaneous coronary intervention in elderly women: Results from a developing country

Factors Associated With Mortality During the First Year Post Infarction: Survival Analysis of Patients With Acute Myocardial Infarction in Colombia

INTRODUCTION

Cardiovascular diseases account for over 80% of global deaths. Risk factors and social determinants influence mortality in patients post acute myocardial infarction (AMI).

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate factors associated with post-AMI mortality during the one-year follow-up.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The study is a prospective cohort study of adults aged 18 years and older with type 1 AMI conducted between October 2021 and January 2024. Intrahospital and outpatient information was collected. Statistical analyses included the Kaplan-Meier survival curve and Cox regression analysis. Proportional hazards and model predictive capacity were evaluated.

RESULTS

A total of 1873 patients were included, with a 9.4% mortality rate in the first year. At one year, the estimated survival probability was 88.61% (95% CI: 86.82-90.18). Cox analysis identified several factors associated with mortality, highlighting age (HR = 1.04, 95% CI: 1.02-1.06, p = 0.001), diabetes (HR = 1.77, 95% CI: 1.09-2.87, p = 0.020), renal insufficiency (HR = 2.25, 95% CI: 1.32-3.84, p = 0.003), and type of intervention. The model evaluation showed strong predictive capacity.

CONCLUSIONS

It is essential to emphasize the importance of comprehensive management in AMI patients with risk factors such as diabetes and chronic kidney disease, as they are significant predictors of mortality during the first year post infarction.

Angiographic characteristics of culprit lesions in infarct related artery and correlation of TIMI score with SYNTAX score to predict extent and severity of coronary artery disease in patients undergoing primary percutaneous coronary interventions

Objective

The current study was designed to explore the relationship of TIMI and SYNTAX risk score to predict the CAD extent and severity in STEMI patients.

Methods

For this cross-sectional study, 304 STEMI patients undergoing PPCI were enrolled at Department of Interventional Cardiology NICVD Karachi from September 2021 to January 2022. and the TIMI risk score was determined at enrolment. Based on these scorings, the patients were grouped as low, intermediate, and high risk, i.e., a score of ≤ 3, 4 to 7, and ≥ 8, respectively. The SYNTAX scores were utilized to assess the extent of CAD.

Results

Statistically significant difference was found in symptoms to balloon time (p=0.001), history of diabetes (p=0.006), angina (p=0.011), obesity (p=0.048), STEMI type (p=0.003), Killip classes (p=0.000), Infarct-Related Artery (p=0.006), number of diseased vessels (p<0.01), LMS > 50% (p=0.000), PCI type (p<0.01), collateral circulation (p<0.01), In-hospital mortality (p<0.01), LV support (p<0.01), and post-procedural TIMI flow (p=0.013), among the three TIMI risk groups. Significant correlation was found among TIMI risk score and SYNTAX score.

Conclusion

It is observed that the TIMI risk scores are highly correlated with the SYNTAX Score in predicting the CAD severity in STEMI patients.

In-hospital risk stratification algorithm of Asian elderly patients

Limited research has been conducted in Asian elderly patients (aged 65 years and above) for in-hospital mortality prediction after an ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) using Deep Learning (DL) and Machine Learning (ML). We used DL and ML to predict in-hospital mortality in Asian elderly STEMI patients and compared it to a conventional risk score for myocardial infraction outcomes. Malaysia's National Cardiovascular Disease Registry comprises an ethnically diverse Asian elderly population (3991 patients). 50 variables helped in establishing the in-hospital death prediction model. The TIMI score was used to predict mortality using DL and feature selection methods from ML algorithms. The main performance metric was the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The DL and ML model constructed using ML feature selection outperforms the conventional risk scoring score, TIMI (AUC 0.75). DL built from ML features (AUC ranging from 0.93 to 0.95) outscored DL built from all features (AUC 0.93). The TIMI score underestimates mortality in the elderly. TIMI predicts 18.4% higher mortality than the DL algorithm (44.7%). All ML feature selection algorithms identify age, fasting blood glucose, heart rate, Killip class, oral hypoglycemic agent, systolic blood pressure, and total cholesterol as common predictors of mortality in the elderly. In a multi-ethnic population, DL outperformed the TIMI risk score in classifying elderly STEMI patients. ML improves death prediction by identifying separate characteristics in older Asian populations. Continuous testing and validation will improve future risk classification, management, and results.

Age Considerations in the Invasive Management of Acute Coronary Syndromes

The elderly constitute a major proportion of patients admitted with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) in the US. Due to pre-existing comorbidities, frailty, and increased risk of complications from medical and invasive therapies, management of ACS in the elderly population poses challenges. In patients with ST-elevation MI, urgent revascularization with primary percutaneous coronary intervention remains the standard of care irrespective of age. However, an early invasive approach in elderly patients with non-ST-elevation MI is based on individual evaluation of risks versus benefits. In this review, the authors discuss the unique characteristics of elderly patients presenting with ACS, specific geriatric conditions that need to be considered while making treatment decisions in these situations, and available evidence, current guidelines, and future directions for invasive management of elderly patients with ACS.

The Difference in Accuracy Between Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events Score and Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction Score in Predicting In-Hospital Mortality of Acute ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction Patients

BACKGROUND

In-hospital mortality of ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients varies between 1% and 19% in Asia. Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) score and Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) score are the most frequently used risk scores for predicting in-hospital mortality. These two scores have different accuracy depending on the risk profiles of each region. This study aimed to identify the difference in accuracy between GRACE and TIMI scores.

METHODS

This was an observational cohort retrospective study on consecutive patients with STEMI admitted to Dr. Hasan Sadikin General Hospital Bandung between July 2018 and June 2019.

RESULTS

The risk scores were evaluated in 255 patients with STEMI, whose data were collected from medical records. Patients in this study were 58 ± 11 years old, more often male (78.8%) and have smoking (65.5%), dyslipidemia (61%), hypertension (56.5%) and diabetes mellitus (21.6 %) as their risk factors. Forty-five patients died in hospitalization (17%). The TIMI and GRACE scores revealed a significant graded increase in mortality with a rising score. There was a statistically significant difference in accuracy between the scores of 0.082 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.040 - 0.125; P < 0.001) with the GRACE score (C statistics of 0.91; P < 0.001) having better accuracy compared to TIMI score (C statistics of 0.83; P < 0.001). This might be due to the fact that the GRACE scoring system has more detail and complete variables than the TIMI score.

CONCLUSION

There is a significant difference between the accuracy of GRACE and TIMI scores in predicting in-hospital mortality in STEMI patients. The accuracy of the GRACE score is better than the TIMI score for predicting in-hospital mortality in STEMI patients.

The prognostic value of MELD-XI in elderly patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction: an observational study

Background

The model for end-stage liver disease excluding international normalized ratio (MELD-XI) is a simple score for risk assessment. However, the prognostic role of MELD-XI and its additional value to current risk assessment in elderly patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is uncertain.

Methods

In all, 1029 elderly patients with STEMI undergoing PCI were consecutively included and classified into three groups according to the TIMI risk score: low-risk (≤ 3, n = 251); moderate-risk (4–6, n = 509); and high-risk (≥ 7, n = 269) groups. Multivariate analysis was performed to identify risk factors for adverse events.

Results

The overall in-hospital mortality was 5.3% and was significantly higher in the high-risk group (1.2% vs. 3.3% vs. 13.0%, p < 0.001). The optimal cut-off of the TIMI risk score and MELD-XI for in-hospital death was 7 and 13, respectively. MELD-XI was associated with in-hospital (adjusted odds ratio = 1.09, 95% CI = 1.04–1.14, p = 0.001) and one-year (adjusted hazard ratio = 1.05, 95% CI = 1.01–1.08, p = 0.005) mortality independently of the TIMI risk score. Combining TIMI risk score and MELD-XI exhibited better predictive power for in-hospital death than TIMI risk score (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.810 vs. 0.753, p = 0.008) or MELD-XI alone (AUC = 0.810 vs. 0.750, p = 0.018). Patients with TIMI risk score ≥ 7 and MELD-XI ≥ 13 had the worst prognosis.

Conclusion

MELD-XI could be considered as a risk-stratified tool for elderly patients with STEMI undergoing PCI. It had an additive prognostic value to TIMI risk score.

Validity of TIMI Score for Predicting 14-Day Mortality of Non-ST Elevation Myocardial Infarction Patients

Background

Accurate management of non-ST elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) patients can be achieved by stratifying risks as early as possible on hospital admission. Previously, the Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) risk score has been validated and used on patients presenting with NSTEMI or unstable angina (UA) in developed countries. The aim of this study was to assess the validity of the TIMI risk score in patients presenting with NSTEMI in Pakistan.

Methods

This cross-sectional study was undertaken on 300 patients who were diagnosed with NSTEMI. Data were collected from medical records, the TIMI score was calculated, and 14-day outcome was recorded. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed, and area under the curve (AUC) along with 95% confidence interval (CI) was reported. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed and odds ratio (OR) along with 95% CI was reported.

Results

This cross-sectional study was undertaken on 300 patients who were diagnosed with NSTEMI. Data were collected from medical records, the TIMI score was calculated, and 14-day outcome was recorded. Validity of TIMI score in predicting hospital mortality 14 days after the diagnosis of NSTEMI in a population in Pakistan was assessed by ROC curve and logistic regression analysis. The AUC of the TIMI score for predicting 14-day outcome was 0.788 [95% CI: 0.689-0.887], with optimal cutoff of ≥4 with sensitivity of 77.78%. On multivariate analysis, cardiac arrest at presentation and the TIMI risk score were found to be independent predictors of 14-day mortality with adjusted ORs of 136.49 [10.23-1821.27] and 2.67 [1.09-6.57], respectively.

Conclusions

The TIMI risk score is a useful and simple score for the stratification of patients with high risk of 14-day mortality with reasonably acceptable discriminating ability in patients with NSTEMI acute coronary syndrome.

Outcomes of Primary Percutaneous Coronary Intervention in Patients With a Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction Score of Five or Higher

Background Primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is a treatment of choice for patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). Of the various risk stratification scores that have been introduced, the thrombolysis in myocardial infarction (TIMI) score is among the most used modalities. Patients with a TIMI score of five or higher are classified as high-risk patients with higher rates of adverse events. Therefore, this study aimed to determine the rate of adverse events after primary PCI in patients presenting with STEMI and a TIMI score of five or higher. Methodology This descriptive study was conducted at the cardiology department of the Liaquat National Hospital, Karachi, from February 2018 to August 2018. The patients included in this study consisted of a total of 150 men and women who presented to the ED with concerns of chest pain and were diagnosed with STEMI and had a TIMI score of five or higher. Consultant cardiologists performed primary PCI procedures, and any post-procedure adverse events were recorded during the patients' hospital stays (up to one week), including mortality, heart failure, cardiogenic shock, and ventricular arrhythmias. Results The study population was 83.3% male and 16.7% female patients, and the mean age was 54.0 ± 9.4 years. The mean BMI was 27.34 ± 2.76 kg/m². The mean TIMI score was 9.19 ± 2.71, with a TIMI score higher than eight for 52.7% of patients. Death was observed in 18.7% of cases, heart failure in 21.3% of cases, cardiogenic shock in 13.3% of cases, and ventricular arrhythmia in 22.0% of cases. Conclusion A TIMI risk score of five or higher can identify patients at high risk not only for mortality, but also for heart failure, cardiogenic shock, and ventricular arrhythmias.