Modelling the health impact of food taxes and subsidies with price elasticities: The case for additional scaling of food consumption using the total food expenditure elasticity

Current perspectives on global sugar consumption: definitions, recommendations, population intakes, challenges and future direction

Currently, there is considerable emphasis on the relationship between dietary sugar consumption and various health outcomes, with some countries and regions implementing national sugar reduction campaigns. This has resulted in significant efforts to quantify dietary sugar intakes, to agree on terms to describe dietary sugars and to establish associated recommendations. However, this information is infrequently collated on a global basis and in a regularised manner. The present review provides context regarding sugar definitions and recommendations. It provides a global review of the available data regarding dietary sugar intake, considering forms such as total, free and added sugars. A comprehensive breakdown of intakes is provided by age group, country and sugar form. This analysis shows that free sugar intakes as a percentage of total energy (%E) are the highest for children and adolescents (12-14%E) and the lowest for older adults (8%E). This trend across lifecycle stages has also been observed for added sugars. The available data also suggest that, while some reductions in sugar intake are observed in a few individual studies, overall intakes of free/added sugars remain above recommendations. However, any wider conclusions are hampered by a lack of detailed high-quality data on sugar intake, especially in developing countries. Furthermore, there is a need for harmonisation of terms describing sugars (ideally driven by public health objectives) and for collaborative efforts to ensure that the most up-to-date food composition data are used to underpin recommendations and any estimates of intake or modelling scenarios.

The Effects of Food Taxes and Subsidies on Promoting Healthier Diets in Iranian Households

Background and Aim

Price, as a key driver of food purchasing, has an important role in determining the consumer demand. This study is aimed to estimate the effect of food taxes and subsidies on purchasing patterns of Iranian households (HHs).

Methods

This study was performed in two phases. In phase one, a two-round Delphi study was conducted to determine and prioritize food-related fiscal policies; and in the second phase, using the Iranian Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES), we estimated an almost ideal demand system (AIDS) and simulated changes in purchases, nutrient intake, and consumer welfare under six different policy scenarios: (1) 20% subsidy on vegetables, (2) 20% subsidy on fruits, (3) 30% subsidy on legumes, (4) 25% tax on sugar and sweets, (5) 30% tax on sweetened beverages, and (6) 30% tax on hydrogenated oil and animal fats.

Results

The highest calorie reduction was detected in sugar and sweets tax, which has resulted in 949.67, 971.68, and 1,148.03 kilocalories decrease in energy intake per Adult Male Equivalent (AME) in all HHs, low-income HHs, and high-income HHs, respectively. In terms of welfare changes, high-income HHs will experience a lower change in welfare (−0.81 to 0.11%) relative to their income when compared with low-income HHs (−0.88 to 0.28%) due to fiscal policies.

Conclusion

Fiscal policies in Iran can be a potential way to improve dietary choices. The findings provide essential information for decision makers for the implementation of food-related fiscal policies.

Can a Greenhouse Gas Emissions Tax on Food also Be Healthy and Equitable? A Systemised Review and Modelling Study from Aotearoa New Zealand

Policies to mitigate climate change are essential. The objective of this paper was to estimate the impact of greenhouse gas (GHG) food taxes and assess whether such a tax could also have health benefits in Aotearoa NZ. We undertook a systemised review on GHG food taxes to inform four tax scenarios, including one combined with a subsidy. These scenarios were modelled to estimate lifetime impacts on quality-adjusted health years (QALY), health inequities by ethnicity, GHG emissions, health system costs and food costs to the individual. Twenty-eight modelling studies on food tax policies were identified. Taxes resulted in decreased consumption of the targeted foods (e.g., -15.4% in beef/ruminant consumption, N = 12 studies) and an average decrease of 8.3% in GHG emissions (N = 19 studies). The "GHG weighted tax on all foods" scenario had the largest health gains and costs savings (455,800 QALYs and NZD 8.8 billion), followed by the tax-fruit and vegetable subsidy scenario (410,400 QALYs and NZD 6.4 billion). All scenarios were associated with reduced GHG emissions and higher age standardised per capita QALYs for Māori. Applying taxes that target foods with high GHG emissions has the potential to be effective for reducing GHG emissions and to result in co-benefits for population health.

Potential effect of real-world junk food and sugar-sweetened beverage taxes on population health, health system costs and greenhouse gas emissions in New Zealand: a modelling study

Poor diet is a major risk factor for excess weight gain and obesity-related diseases, including cardiovascular diseases, type 2 diabetes mellitus, osteoarthritis and several cancers. This paper aims to assess the potential impacts of real-world food and beverage taxes on change in dietary risk factors, health gains (in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs)), health system costs and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions as if they had all been implemented in New Zealand (NZ). Ten taxes or tax packages were modelled. A proportional multistate life table model was used to predict resultant QALYs and costs over the remaining lifespan of the NZ population alive in 2011, as well as GHG emissions. QALYs ranged from 12.5 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 10.2 to 15.0; 3% discount rate) per 1000 population for the import tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) in Palau to 143 (95% UI 118 to 171) per 1000 population for the excise duties on saturated fat, chocolate and sweets in Denmark, while health expenditure savings ranged from 2011 NZ$245 (95% UI 188 to 310; 2020 US$185) per capita to NZ$2770 (95% UI 2140 to 3480; US$2100) per capita, respectively. The modelled taxes resulted in decreases in GHG emissions from baseline diets, ranging from −0.2% for the tax on SSB in Barbados to −2.8% for Denmark’s tax package. There is strong evidence for the implementation of food and beverage tax packages in NZ or similar high-income settings.

Impact of taxes on purchases of close substitute foods: analysis of cross-price elasticities using data from a randomized experiment

OBJECTIVE

To examine the effects of health-related food taxes on substitution and complementary purchases within food groups, including from unhealthier to healthier alternatives and between brands.

METHODS

We used data from a virtual supermarket experiment with data from 4,259 shopping events linked to varying price sets. Substitution or complementary effects within six frequently purchased food categories were analyzed. Products' own- and cross-price elasticities were analyzed using Almost Ideal Demand System models.

RESULTS

Overall, 37.5% of cross-price elasticities were significant (p < 0.05) and included values greater than 0.10. Supplementary and complementary effects were particularly found in the dairy, meats and snacks categories. For example, a 1% increase in the price of high saturated fat dairy was associated with a 0.18% (SE 0.06%) increase in purchases of low saturated fat dairy. For name- and home-brand products, significant substitution effects were found in 50% (n = 3) of cases, but only in one case this was above the 0.10 threshold.

CONCLUSIONS/POLICY IMPLICATIONS

Given the relatively low own-price elasticities and the limited substitution and complementary effects, relatively high taxes are needed to substantively increase healthy food purchases at the population level.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

This study included secondary analyses; the original trial was registered in the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12616000122459 .