Progress towards a representative network of Southern Ocean protected areas

Variability in zoobenthic blue carbon storage across a southern polar gradient

The seabed of the Antarctic continental shelf hosts most of Antarctica's known species, including taxa considered indicative of vulnerable marine ecosystems (VMEs). Nonetheless, the potential impact of climatic and environmental change, including marine icescape transition, on Antarctic shelf zoobenthos, and their blue carbon-associated function, is still poorly characterised. To help narrow knowledge gaps, four continental shelf study areas, spanning a southern polar gradient, were investigated for zoobenthic (principally epi-faunal) carbon storage (a component of blue carbon), and potential environmental influences, employing a functional group approach. Zoobenthic carbon storage was highest at the two southernmost study areas (with a mean estimate of 41.6 versus 7.2 g C m-2) and, at each study area, increased with morphotaxa richness, overall faunal density, and VME indicator density. Functional group mean carbon content varied with study area, as did each group's percentage contribution to carbon storage and faunal density. Of the environmental variables explored, sea-ice cover and primary production, both likely to be strongly impacted by climate change, featured in variable subsets most highly correlating with assemblage and carbon storage (by functional groups) structures. The study findings can underpin biodiversity- and climate-considerate marine spatial planning and conservation measures in the Southern Ocean.

Incorporating mesopelagic fish into the evaluation of conservation areas for marine living resources under climate change scenarios

Mesopelagic fish (meso-fish) are central species within the Southern Ocean (SO). However, their ecosystem role and adaptive capacity to climate change are rarely integrated into protected areas assessments. This is a pity given their importance as crucial prey and predators in food webs, coupled with the impacts of climate change. Here, we estimate the habitat distribution of nine meso-fish using an ensemble model approach (MAXENT, random forest, and boosted regression tree). Four climate model simulations were used to project their distribution under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for short-term (2006-2055) and long-term (2050-2099) periods. In addition, we assess the ecological representativeness of protected areas under climate change scenarios using meso-fish as indicator species. Our models show that all species shift poleward in the future. Lanternfishes (family Myctophidae) are predicted to migrate poleward more than other families (Paralepididae, Nototheniidae, Bathylagidae, and Gonostomatidae). In comparison, lanternfishes were projected to increase habitat area in the eastern SO but lose area in the western SO; the opposite was projected for species in other families. Important areas (IAs) of meso-fish are mainly distributed near the Antarctic Peninsula and East Antarctica. Negotiated protected area cover 23% of IAs at present and 38% of IAs in the future (RCP8.5, long-term future). Many IAs of meso-fish still need to be included in protected areas, such as the Prydz Bay and the seas around the Antarctic Peninsula. Our results provide a framework for evaluating protected areas incorporating climate change adaptation strategies for protected areas management.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s42995-023-00188-9.

Severe 21st-century ocean acidification in Antarctic Marine Protected Areas

Antarctic coastal waters are home to several established or proposed Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) supporting exceptional biodiversity. Despite being threatened by anthropogenic climate change, uncertainties remain surrounding the future ocean acidification (OA) of these waters. Here we present 21st-century projections of OA in Antarctic MPAs under four emission scenarios using a high-resolution ocean-sea ice-biogeochemistry model with realistic ice-shelf geometry. By 2100, we project pH declines of up to 0.36 (total scale) for the top 200 m. Vigorous vertical mixing of anthropogenic carbon produces severe OA throughout the water column in coastal waters of proposed and existing MPAs. Consequently, end-of-century aragonite undersaturation is ubiquitous under the three highest emission scenarios. Given the cumulative threat to marine ecosystems by environmental change and activities such as fishing, our findings call for strong emission-mitigation efforts and further management strategies to reduce pressures on ecosystems, such as the continuation and expansion of Antarctic MPAs.

Antarctic Seabed Assemblages in an Ice-Shelf-Adjacent Polynya, Western Weddell Sea

Ice shelves cover ~1.6 million km² of the Antarctic continental shelf and are sensitive indicators of climate change. With ice-shelf retreat, aphotic marine environments transform into new open-water spaces of photo-induced primary production and associated organic matter export to the benthos. Predicting how Antarctic seafloor assemblages may develop following ice-shelf loss requires knowledge of assemblages bordering the ice-shelf margins, which are relatively undocumented. This study investigated seafloor assemblages, by taxa and functional groups, in a coastal polynya adjacent to the Larsen C Ice Shelf front, western Weddell Sea. The study area is rarely accessed, at the frontline of climate change, and located within a CCAMLR-proposed international marine protected area. Four sites, ~1 to 16 km from the ice-shelf front, were explored for megabenthic assemblages, and potential environmental drivers of assemblage structures were assessed. Faunal density increased with distance from the ice shelf, with epifaunal deposit-feeders a surrogate for overall density trends. Faunal richness did not exhibit a significant pattern with distance from the ice shelf and was most variable at sites closest to the ice-shelf front. Faunal assemblages significantly differed in composition among sites, and those nearest to the ice shelf were the most dissimilar; however, ice-shelf proximity did not emerge as a significant driver of assemblage structure. Overall, the study found a biologically-diverse and complex seafloor environment close to an ice-shelf front and provides ecological baselines for monitoring benthic ecosystem responses to environmental change, supporting marine management.

Juvenile emperor penguin range calls for extended conservation measures in the Southern Ocean

To protect the unique and rich biodiversity of the Southern Ocean, conservation measures such as marine protected areas (MPAs) have been implemented. Currently, the establishment of several additional protection zones is being considered based on the known habitat distributions of key species of the ecosystems including emperor penguins and other marine top predators. However, the distribution of such species at sea is often insufficiently sampled. Specifically, current distribution models focus on the habitat range of adult animals and neglect that immatures and juveniles can inhabit different areas. By tracking eight juvenile emperor penguins in the Weddell Sea over 1 year and performing a meta-analysis including previously known data from other colonies, we show that conservation efforts in the Southern Ocean are insufficient for protecting this highly mobile species, and particularly its juveniles. We find that juveniles spend approximately 90% of their time outside the boundaries of proposed and existing MPAs, and that their distribution extends beyond (greater than 1500 km) the species' extent of occurrence as defined by the International Union for Conservation of Nature. Our data exemplify that strategic conservation plans for the emperor penguin and other long-lived ecologically important species should consider the dynamic habitat range of all age classes.

Societal importance of Antarctic negative feedbacks on climate change: blue carbon gains from sea ice, ice shelf and glacier losses

Diminishing prospects for environmental preservation under climate change are intensifying efforts to boost capture, storage and sequestration (long-term burial) of carbon. However, as Earth’s biological carbon sinks also shrink, remediation has become a key part of the narrative for terrestrial ecosystems. In contrast, blue carbon on polar continental shelves have stronger pathways to sequestration and have increased with climate-forced marine ice losses—becoming the largest known natural negative feedback on climate change. Here we explore the size and complex dynamics of blue carbon gains with spatiotemporal changes in sea ice (60–100 MtCyear⁻¹), ice shelves (4–40 MtCyear⁻¹ = giant iceberg generation) and glacier retreat (< 1 MtCyear⁻¹). Estimates suggest that, amongst these, reduced duration of seasonal sea ice is most important. Decreasing sea ice extent drives longer (not necessarily larger biomass) smaller cell-sized phytoplankton blooms, increasing growth of many primary consumers and benthic carbon storage—where sequestration chances are maximal. However, sea ice losses also create positive feedbacks in shallow waters through increased iceberg movement and scouring of benthos. Unlike loss of sea ice, which enhances existing sinks, ice shelf losses generate brand new carbon sinks both where giant icebergs were, and in their wake. These also generate small positive feedbacks from scouring, minimised by repeat scouring at biodiversity hotspots. Blue carbon change from glacier retreat has been least well quantified, and although emerging fjords are small areas, they have high storage-sequestration conversion efficiencies, whilst blue carbon in polar waters faces many diverse and complex stressors. The identity of these are known (e.g. fishing, warming, ocean acidification, non-indigenous species and plastic pollution) but not their magnitude of impact. In order to mediate multiple stressors, research should focus on wider verification of blue carbon gains, projecting future change, and the broader environmental and economic benefits to safeguard blue carbon ecosystems through law.

Local Drivers of Change in Southern Ocean Ecosystems: Human Activities and Policy Implications

Local drivers are human activities or processes that occur in specific locations, and cause physical or ecological change at the local or regional scale. Here, we consider marine and land-derived pollution, non-indigenous species, tourism and other human visits, exploitation of marine resources, recovery of marine mammals, and coastal change as a result of ice loss, in terms of their historic and current extent, and their interactions with the Southern Ocean environment. We summarise projected increases or decreases in the influence of local drivers, and projected changes to their geographic range, concluding that the influence of non-indigenous species, fishing, and the recovery of marine mammals are predicted to increase in the future across the Southern Ocean. Local drivers can be managed regionally, and we identify existing governance frameworks as part of the Antarctic Treaty System and other instruments which may be employed to mitigate or limit their impacts on Southern Ocean ecosystems.

Omega-3 nutraceuticals, climate change and threats to the environment: The cases of Antarctic krill and Calanus finmarchicus

The nutraceutical market for EPA (eicosapentaenoic acid) and DHA (docosahexaenoic acid) is promoting fishing for Euphasia superba (Antarctic krill) in the Southern Ocean and Calanus finmarchicus in Norwegian waters. This industry argues that these species are underexploited, but they are essential in their ecosystems, and climate change is altering their geographical distribution. In this perspective, we advocate the cessation of fishing for these species to produce nutraceuticals with EPA and DHA. We argue that this is possible because, contrary to what this industry promotes, the benefits of these fatty acids only seem significant to specific population groups, and not for the general population. Next, we explain that this is desirable because there is evidence that these fisheries may interact with the impact of climate change. Greener sources of EPA and DHA are already available on the market, and their reasonable use would ease pressure on the Arctic and Antarctic ecosystems.