Using trauma registry data to predict prolonged mechanical ventilation in patients with traumatic brain injury: Machine learning approach

Advances in neuroproteomics for neurotrauma: unraveling insights for personalized medicine and future prospects

Neuroproteomics, an emerging field at the intersection of neuroscience and proteomics, has garnered significant attention in the context of neurotrauma research. Neuroproteomics involves the quantitative and qualitative analysis of nervous system components, essential for understanding the dynamic events involved in the vast areas of neuroscience, including, but not limited to, neuropsychiatric disorders, neurodegenerative disorders, mental illness, traumatic brain injury, chronic traumatic encephalopathy, and other neurodegenerative diseases. With advancements in mass spectrometry coupled with bioinformatics and systems biology, neuroproteomics has led to the development of innovative techniques such as microproteomics, single-cell proteomics, and imaging mass spectrometry, which have significantly impacted neuronal biomarker research. By analyzing the complex protein interactions and alterations that occur in the injured brain, neuroproteomics provides valuable insights into the pathophysiological mechanisms underlying neurotrauma. This review explores how such insights can be harnessed to advance personalized medicine (PM) approaches, tailoring treatments based on individual patient profiles. Additionally, we highlight the potential future prospects of neuroproteomics, such as identifying novel biomarkers and developing targeted therapies by employing artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML). By shedding light on neurotrauma's current state and future directions, this review aims to stimulate further research and collaboration in this promising and transformative field.

Machine learning based prediction of prolonged duration of mechanical ventilation incorporating medication data

Rationale

Duration of mechanical ventilation is associated with adverse outcomes in critically ill patients and increased use of resources. The increasing complexity of medication regimens has been associated with increased mortality, length of stay, and fluid overload but has never been studied specifically in the setting of mechanical ventilation.

Objective

The purpose of this analysis was to develop prediction models for mechanical ventilation duration to test the hypothesis that incorporating medication data may improve model performance.

Methods

This was a retrospective cohort study of adults admitted to the ICU and undergoing mechanical ventilation for longer than 24 hours from October 2015 to October 2020. Patients were excluded if it was not their index ICU admission or if the patient was placed on comfort care in the first 24 hours of admission. Relevant patient characteristics including age, sex, body mass index, admission diagnosis, morbidities, vital signs measurements, severity of illness, medication regimen complexity as measured by the MRC-ICU, and medical treatments before intubation were collected. The primary outcome was area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) of prediction models for prolonged mechanical ventilation (defined as greater than 5 days). Both logistic regression and supervised learning techniques including XGBoost, Random Forest, and Support Vector Machine were used to develop prediction models.

Results

The 318 patients [age 59.9 (SD 16.9), female 39.3%, medical 28.6%] had mean 24-hour MRC-ICU score of 21.3 (10.5), mean APACHE II score of 21.0 (5.4), mean SOFA score of 9.9 (3.3), and ICU mortality rate of 22.6% (n=72). The strongest performing logistic model was the base model with MRC-ICU added, with AUROC of 0.72, positive predictive value (PPV) of 0.83, and negative prediction value (NPV) of 0.92. The strongest overall model was Random Forest with an AUROC of 0.78, a PPV of 0.53, and NPV of 0.90. Feature importance analysis using support vector machine and Random Forest revealed severity of illness scores and medication related data were the most important predictors.

Conclusions

Medication regimen complexity is significantly associated with prolonged duration of mechanical ventilation in critically ill patients, and prediction models incorporating medication information showed modest improvement in this prediction.

Prediction prolonged mechanical ventilation in trauma patients of the intensive care unit according to initial medical factors: a machine learning approach

The goal of this study was to develop a predictive machine learning model to predict the risk of prolonged mechanical ventilation (PMV) in patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU), with a focus on laboratory and Arterial Blood Gas (ABG) data. This retrospective cohort study included ICU patients admitted to Rajaei Hospital in Shiraz between 2016 and March 20, 2022. All adult patients requiring mechanical ventilation and seeking ICU admission had their data analyzed. Six models were created in this study using five machine learning models (PMV more than 3, 5, 7, 10, 14, and 23 days). Patients' demographic characteristics, Apache II, laboratory information, ABG, and comorbidity were predictors. This study used Logistic regression (LR), artificial neural networks (ANN), support vector machines (SVM), random forest (RF), and C.5 decision tree (C.5 DT) to predict PMV. The study enrolled 1138 eligible patients, excluding brain-dead patients and those without mechanical ventilation or a tracheostomy. The model PMV > 14 days showed the best performance (Accuracy: 83.63-98.54). The essential ABG variables in our two optimal models (artificial neural network and decision tree) in the PMV > 14 models include FiO₂, paCO₂, and paO₂. This study provides evidence that machine learning methods outperform traditional methods and offer a perspective for achieving a consensus definition of PMV. It also introduces ABG and laboratory information as the two most important variables for predicting PMV. Therefore, there is significant value in deploying such models in clinical practice and making them accessible to clinicians to support their decision-making.

Prediction of Mortality among Patients with Isolated Traumatic Brain Injury Using Machine Learning Models in Asian Countries: An International Multi-Center Cohort Study

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a significant healthcare concern in several countries, accounting for a major burden of morbidity, mortality, disability, and socioeconomic losses. Although conventional prognostic models for patients with TBI have been validated, their performance has been limited. Therefore, we aimed to construct machine learning (ML) models to predict the clinical outcomes in adult patients with isolated TBI in Asian countries. The Pan-Asian Trauma Outcome Study registry was used in this study, and the data were prospectively collected from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2020. Among a total of 6540 patients (≥ 15 years) with isolated moderate and severe TBI, 3276 (50.1%) patients were randomly included with stratification by outcomes and subgrouping variables for model evaluation, and 3264 (49.9%) patients were included for model training and validation. Logistic regression was considered as a baseline, and ML models were constructed and evaluated using the area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC) as the primary outcome metric, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), and precision at fixed levels of recall. The contribution of the variables to the model prediction was measured using the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method. The ML models outperformed logistic regression in predicting the in-hospital mortality. Among the tested models, the gradient-boosted decision tree showed the best performance (AUPRC, 0.746 [0.700-0.789]; AUROC, 0.940 [0.929-0.952]). The most powerful contributors to model prediction were the Glasgow Coma Scale, O₂ saturation, transfusion, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, body temperature, and age. Our study suggests that ML techniques might perform better than conventional multi-variate models in predicting the outcomes among adult patients with isolated moderate and severe TBI.

Science fiction or clinical reality: a review of the applications of artificial intelligence along the continuum of trauma care

Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning describe a broad range of algorithm types that can be trained based on datasets to make predictions. The increasing sophistication of AI has created new opportunities to apply these algorithms within within trauma care. Our paper overviews the current uses of AI along the continuum of trauma care, including injury prediction, triage, emergency department volume, assessment, and outcomes. Starting at the point of injury, algorithms are being used to predict severity of motor vehicle crashes, which can help inform emergency responses. Once on the scene, AI can be used to help emergency services triage patients remotely in order to inform transfer location and urgency. For the receiving hospital, these tools can be used to predict trauma volumes in the emergency department to help allocate appropriate staffing. After patient arrival to hospital, these algorithms not only can help to predict injury severity, which can inform decision-making, but also predict patient outcomes to help trauma teams anticipate patient trajectory. Overall, these tools have the capability to transform trauma care. AI is still nascent within the trauma surgery sphere, but this body of the literature shows that this technology has vast potential. AI-based predictive tools in trauma need to be explored further through prospective trials and clinical validation of algorithms.

Prediction of motor function in patients with traumatic brain injury using genetic algorithms modified back propagation neural network: A data-based study

Objective

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide. In this study, the characteristics of the patients, who were admitted to the China Rehabilitation Research Center, were elucidated in the TBI database, and a prediction model based on the Fugl-Meyer assessment scale (FMA) was established using this database.

Methods

A retrospective analysis of 463 TBI patients, who were hospitalized from June 2016 to June 2020, was performed. The data of the patients used for this study included the age and gender of the patients, course of TBI, complications, and concurrent dysfunctions, which were assessed using FMA and other measures. The information was collected at the time of admission to the hospital and 1 month after hospitalization. After 1 month, a prediction model, based on the correlation analyses and a 1-layer genetic algorithms modified back propagation (GA-BP) neural network with 175 patients, was established to predict the FMA. The correlations between the predicted and actual values of 58 patients (prediction set) were described.

Results

Most of the TBI patients, included in this study, had severe conditions (70%). The main causes of the TBI were car accidents (56.59%), while the most common complication and dysfunctions were hydrocephalus (46.44%) and cognitive and motor dysfunction (65.23 and 63.50%), respectively. A total of 233 patients were used in the prediction model, studying the 11 prognostic factors, such as gender, course of the disease, epilepsy, and hydrocephalus. The correlation between the predicted and the actual value of 58 patients was R ² = 0.95.

Conclusion

The genetic algorithms modified back propagation neural network can predict motor function in patients with traumatic brain injury, which can be used as a reference for risk and prognosis assessment and guide clinical decision-making.

Prognosis prediction in traumatic brain injury patients using machine learning algorithms

Predicting treatment outcomes in traumatic brain injury (TBI) patients is challenging worldwide. The present study aimed to achieve the most accurate machine learning (ML) algorithms to predict the outcomes of TBI treatment by evaluating demographic features, laboratory data, imaging indices, and clinical features. We used data from 3347 patients admitted to a tertiary trauma centre in Iran from 2016 to 2021. After the exclusion of incomplete data, 1653 patients remained. We used ML algorithms such as random forest (RF) and decision tree (DT) with ten-fold cross-validation to develop the best prediction model. Our findings reveal that among different variables included in this study, the motor component of the Glasgow coma scale, the condition of pupils, and the condition of cisterns were the most reliable features for predicting in-hospital mortality, while the patients' age takes the place of cisterns condition when considering the long-term survival of TBI patients. Also, we found that the RF algorithm is the best model to predict the short-term mortality of TBI patients. However, the generalized linear model (GLM) algorithm showed the best performance (with an accuracy rate of 82.03 ± 2.34) in predicting the long-term survival of patients. Our results showed that using appropriate markers and with further development, ML has the potential to predict TBI patients' survival in the short- and long-term.

A Scoping Review of the Use of Machine Learning in Health Economics and Outcomes Research: Part 2-Data From Nonwearables

OBJECTIVES

Despite the increasing interest in applying machine learning (ML) methods in health economics and outcomes research (HEOR), stakeholders face uncertainties in when and how ML can be used. We reviewed the recent applications of ML in HEOR.

METHODS

We searched PubMed for studies published between January 2020 and March 2021 and randomly chose 20% of the identified studies for the sake of manageability. Studies that were in HEOR and applied an ML technique were included. Studies related to wearable devices were excluded. We abstracted information on the ML applications, data types, and ML methods and analyzed it using descriptive statistics.

RESULTS

We retrieved 805 articles, of which 161 (20%) were randomly chosen. Ninety-two of the random sample met the eligibility criteria. We found that ML was primarily used for predicting future events (86%) rather than current events (14%). The most common response variables were clinical events or disease incidence (42%) and treatment outcomes (22%). ML was less used to predict economic outcomes such as health resource utilization (16%) or costs (3%). Although electronic medical records (35%) were frequently used for model development, claims data were used less frequently (9%). Tree-based methods (eg, random forests and boosting) were the most commonly used ML methods (31%).

CONCLUSIONS

The use of ML techniques in HEOR is growing rapidly, but there remain opportunities to apply them to predict economic outcomes, especially using claims databases, which could inform the development of cost-effectiveness models.

Machine Learning in the Prediction of Trauma Outcomes: A Systematic Review

STUDY OBJECTIVE

Machine learning models carry unique potential as decision-making aids and prediction tools for improving patient care. Traumatically injured patients provide a uniquely heterogeneous population with severe injuries that can be difficult to predict. Given the relative infancy of machine learning applications in medicine, this systematic review aimed to better understand the current state of machine learning development and implementation to help create a basis for future research.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review from inception to May 2021, using Embase, MEDLINE through Ovid, Web of Science, Google Scholar, and relevant gray literature, for uses of machine learning in predicting the outcomes of trauma patients. The screening and data extraction were performed by 2 independent reviewers.

RESULTS

Of the 14,694 identified articles screened, 67 were included for data extraction. Artificial neural networks comprised the most commonly used model, and mortality was the most prevalent outcome of interest. In terms of machine learning model development, there was a lack of studies that employed external validation, feature selection methods, and performed formal calibration testing. Significant heterogeneity in reporting was also observed between the machine learning models employed, patient populations, performance metrics, and features employed.

CONCLUSION

This review highlights the heterogeneity in the development and reporting of machine learning models for the prediction of trauma outcomes. While these models present an area of opportunity as an ancillary to clinical decision-making, we recommend more standardization and rigorous guidelines for the development of future models.

Early versus standard tracheostomy in ventilated patients in neurosurgical intensive care unit: A randomized controlled trial

INTRODUCTION

Tracheostomy is performed in patients with prolonged mechanical ventilation, who suffered catastrophic neurologic insult or upper airway obstruction. Thus far, there is no consensus on the optimal timing in performing a tracheostomy. This study aims to test whether early tracheostomy in mechanically ventilated patients in a neurosurgical setting would be associated with a shorter time of mechanical ventilation as compared to standard tracheostomy.

METHODS

This single-center prospective randomized controlled trial was conducted at University Malaya Medical Centre from July 2019 to July 2021. The likelihood of prolonged ventilation was determined objectively using the TRACH score and the patient's clinical presentation. The outcomes measured were days of mechanical ventilation post-tracheostomy, days of neuro-intensive care unit stay, and days of hospital stay. Tracheostomy-related complications were collected. The data collected were analyzed using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences version 25 for Windows (SPSS Inc., Chicago, IL, USA).

RESULTS

In all, 39 patients were randomly assigned. Of these, 20 were allocated to the early tracheostomy group (ET) and 19 were allocated to the standard tracheostomy group (ST). The demographic characteristics were similar between the groups. The primary outcome, mean (SD) days of mechanical ventilation post-tracheostomy, was statistically different in the 2 groups- early 11.9 (9.3) days, standard 18.9 (32.5) days; p = 0.014. There were comparable tracheostomy-related complications in both groups.

CONCLUSION

Early tracheostomy is associated with a shorter duration of mechanical ventilation in a neurosurgical intensive care unit setting.

Predicting outcomes after trauma: Prognostic model development based on admission features through machine learning

In an overcrowded emergency department (ED), trauma surgeons and emergency physicians need an accurate prognostic predictor for critical decision-making involving patients with severe trauma. We aimed to develope a machine learning-based early prognostic model based on admission features and initial ED management.We only recruited patients with severe trauma (defined as an injury severity score >15) as the study cohort and excluded children (defined as patients <16 years old) from a 4-years database (Chi-Mei Medical Center, from January 2015, to December 2018) recording the clinical features of all admitted trauma patients. We considered only patient features that could be determined within the first 2 hours after arrival to the ED. These variables included Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score; heart rate; respiratory rate; mean arterial pressure (MAP); prehospital cardiac arrest; abbreviated injury scales (AIS) of head and neck, thorax, and abdomen; and ED interventions (tracheal intubation/tracheostomy, blood product transfusion, thoracostomy, and cardiopulmonary resuscitation). The endpoint for prognostic analyses was mortality within 7 days of admission.We divided the study cohort into the early death group (149 patients who died within 7 days of admission) and non-early death group (2083 patients who survived at >7 days of admission). The extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) machine learning model provided mortality prediction with higher accuracy (94.0%), higher sensitivity (98.0%), moderate specificity (54.8%), higher positive predict value (PPV) (95.4%), and moderate negative predictive value (NPV) (74.2%).We developed a machine learning-based prognostic model that showed high accuracy, high sensitivity, and high PPV for predicting the mortality of patients with severe trauma.

Intelligent decision support with machine learning for efficient management of mechanical ventilation in the intensive care unit - A critical overview

BACKGROUND

Effective management of Mechanical Ventilation (MV) is vital for reducing morbidity, mortality, and cost of healthcare.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to synthesize evidence for effective MV management through Intelligent decision support (IDS) with Machine Learning (ML).

METHOD

Databases that include EBSCO, IEEEXplore, Google Scholar, SCOPUS, and the Web of Science were systematically searched to identify studies on IDS for effective MV management regarding Tidal Volume (TV), asynchrony, weaning, and other outcomes such as the risk of Prolonged Mechanical ventilation (PMV). The quality of the articles identified was assessed with a modified Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) critical appraisal checklist for cross-sessional research.

RESULTS

A total of 26 articles were identified for the study that has IDS for TV (n = 2, 7.8 %), asynchrony (n = 9, 34.6 %), weaning (n = 12, 46.2 %), and others (n = 3, 11.5 %). It was affirmed that implementing IDS in MV management will enhance seamless ICU patient management following the utilization of various Machine Learning (ML) algorithms in decision support. The studies relied on (n = 14) ML algorithms to predict the TV, asynchrony, weaning, risk of PMV and Positive End-Expiratory Pressure (PEEP) changes of 11-20262 ICU patients records with model inputs ranging from (n = 1) for timeseries analysis of TV to (n = 47) for weaning prediction.

CONCLUSIONS

The small data size, poor study design, and result reporting, with the heterogeneity of techniques used in the various studies, hampered the development of a unified approach for managing MV efficiency in TV monitoring, asynchrony, and weaning predictions. Notwithstanding, the ensemble model was able to predict TV, asynchrony, and weaning to a higher accuracy than the other algorithms.

A Closer Look at the "Right" Format for Clinical Decision Support: Methods for Evaluating a Storyboard BestPractice Advisory

(1) Background: The five rights of clinical decision support (CDS) are a well-known framework for planning the nuances of CDS, but recent advancements have given us more options to modify the format of the alert. One-size-fits-all assessments fail to capture the nuance of different BestPractice Advisory (BPA) formats. To demonstrate a tailored evaluation methodology, we assessed a BPA after implementation of Storyboard for changes in alert fatigue, behavior influence, and task completion; (2) Methods: Data from 19 weeks before and after implementation were used to evaluate differences in each domain. Individual clinics were evaluated for task completion and compared for changes pre- and post-redesign; (3) Results: The change in format was correlated with an increase in alert fatigue, a decrease in erroneous free text answers, and worsened task completion at a system level. At a local level, however, 14% of clinics had improved task completion; (4) Conclusions: While the change in BPA format was correlated with decreased performance, the changes may have been driven primarily by the COVID-19 pandemic. The framework and metrics proposed can be used in future studies to assess the impact of new CDS formats. Although the changes in this study seemed undesirable in aggregate, some positive changes were observed at the level of individual clinics. Personalized implementations of CDS tools based on local need should be considered.

Artificial Intelligence and Health in Nepal

The growth in information technology and computer capacity has opened up opportunities to deal with much and much larger data sets than even a decade ago. There has been a technological revolution of big data and Artificial Intelligence (AI). Perhaps many readers would immediately think about robotic surgery or self-driving cars, but there is much more to AI. This Short Communication starts with an overview of the key terms, including AI, machine learning, deep learning and Big Data. This Short Communication highlights so developments of AI in health that could benefit a low-income country like Nepal and stresses the need for Nepal's health and education systems to track such developments and apply them locally. Moreover, Nepal needs to start growing its own AI expertise to help develop national or South Asian solutions. This would require investing in local resources such as access to computer power/capacity as well as training young Nepali to work in AI.