Estimating Health Adjusted Age at Death (HAAD)

Life expectancy gains from dietary modifications: a comparative modeling study in 7 countries

BACKGROUND

Eating healthier is associated with a range of favorable health outcomes. Our previous model estimated the impact of dietary changes on life expectancy gains but did not consider height, weight, or physical activity.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to estimate the increase in life expectancy resulting from the transition from typical national dietary patterns to longevity-optimizing dietary changes, more feasible dietary modifications, and optimized vegan dietary changes in China, France, Germany, Iran, Norway, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

METHODS

Our modeling study used data from meta-analyses presenting dose-response relationships between intake of 15 food groups and mortality. Background mortality data were from the Global Burden of Disease Study. We used national food intake data and adjusted for height, weight, and physical activity level.

RESULTS

For 40-y-olds, estimated life expectancy gains ranged from 6.2 y (with uncertainty interval [UI]: 5.7, 7.5 y) for Chinese females to 9.7 y (UI: 8.1, 11.3 y) for United States males following sustained changes from typical country-specific dietary patterns to longevity-optimized dietary changes, and from 5.2 y (UI: 4.0, 6.5 y) for Chinese females to 8.7 y (UI: 7.1, 10.3 y) for United States males following changes to optimized vegan dietary changes.

CONCLUSIONS

A sustained change from country-specific typical dietary pattern patterns to longevity-optimized dietary changes, more feasible dietary changes, or optimized vegan dietary changes are all projected to result in substantial life expectancy gains across ages and countries. These changes included more whole grains, legumes, and nuts and less red/processed meats and sugars and sugar-sweetened beverages. The largest gains from dietary changes would be in the United States.

Estimating impact of food choices on life expectancy: A modeling study

BACKGROUND

Interpreting and utilizing the findings of nutritional research can be challenging to clinicians, policy makers, and even researchers. To make better decisions about diet, innovative methods that integrate best evidence are needed. We have developed a decision support model that predicts how dietary choices affect life expectancy (LE).

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Based on meta-analyses and data from the Global Burden of Disease study (2019), we used life table methodology to estimate how LE changes with sustained changes in the intake of fruits, vegetables, whole grains, refined grains, nuts, legumes, fish, eggs, milk/dairy, red meat, processed meat, and sugar-sweetened beverages. We present estimates (with 95% uncertainty intervals [95% UIs]) for an optimized diet and a feasibility approach diet. An optimal diet had substantially higher intake than a typical diet of whole grains, legumes, fish, fruits, vegetables, and included a handful of nuts, while reducing red and processed meats, sugar-sweetened beverages, and refined grains. A feasibility approach diet was a midpoint between an optimal and a typical Western diet. A sustained change from a typical Western diet to the optimal diet from age 20 years would increase LE by more than a decade for women from the United States (10.7 [95% UI 8.4 to 12.3] years) and men (13.0 [95% UI 9.4 to 14.3] years). The largest gains would be made by eating more legumes (females: 2.2 [95% UI 1.1 to 3.4]; males: 2.5 [95% UI 1.1 to 3.9]), whole grains (females: 2.0 [95% UI 1.3 to 2.7]; males: 2.3 [95% UI 1.6 to 3.0]), and nuts (females: 1.7 [95% UI 1.5 to 2.0]; males: 2.0 [95% UI 1.7 to 2.3]), and less red meat (females: 1.6 [95% UI 1.5 to 1.8]; males: 1.9 [95% UI 1.7 to 2.1]) and processed meat (females: 1.6 [95% UI 1.5 to 1.8]; males: 1.9 [95% UI 1.7 to 2.1]). Changing from a typical diet to the optimized diet at age 60 years would increase LE by 8.0 (95% UI 6.2 to 9.3) years for women and 8.8 (95% UI 6.8 to 10.0) years for men, and 80-year-olds would gain 3.4 years (95% UI females: 2.6 to 3.8/males: 2.7 to 3.9). Change from typical to feasibility approach diet would increase LE by 6.2 (95% UI 3.5 to 8.1) years for 20-year-old women from the United States and 7.3 (95% UI 4.7 to 9.5) years for men. Using NutriGrade, the overall quality of evidence was assessed as moderate. The methodology provides population estimates under given assumptions and is not meant as individualized forecasting, with study limitations that include uncertainty for time to achieve full effects, the effect of eggs, white meat, and oils, individual variation in protective and risk factors, uncertainties for future development of medical treatments; and changes in lifestyle.

CONCLUSIONS

A sustained dietary change may give substantial health gains for people of all ages both for optimized and feasible changes. Gains are predicted to be larger the earlier the dietary changes are initiated in life. The Food4HealthyLife calculator that we provide online could be useful for clinicians, policy makers, and laypeople to understand the health impact of dietary choices.

Addressing Severe Chronic NCDs Across Africa: Measuring Demand for the Package of Essential Noncommunicable Disease Interventions-Plus (PEN-Plus)

Severe chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs) pose important challenges for health systems across Africa. This study explores the current availability of and demand for decentralization of services for four high-priority conditions: insulin-dependent diabetes, heart failure, sickle cell disease, and chronic pain. Ministry of Health NCD Programme Managers from across Africa (N = 47) were invited to participate in an online survey. Respondents were asked to report the status of clinical care across the health system. A care package including diagnostics and treatment was described for each condition. Respondents were asked whether the described services are currently available at primary, secondary and tertiary levels, and whether making the service generally available at that level is expected to be a priority in the coming 5 years. Thirty-seven (79%) countries responded. Countries reported widespread gaps in service availability at all levels. We found that just under half (49%) of respondents report that services for insulin-dependent diabetes are generally available at the secondary level (district hospital); 32% report the same for heart failure, 27% for chronic pain and 14% for sickle cell disease. Reported gaps are smaller at tertiary level (referral hospital) and larger at primary care level (health centres). Respondents report ambitious plans to introduce and decentralize these services in the coming 5 years. Respondents from 32 countries (86%) hope to make all services available at tertiary hospitals, and 21 countries (57%) expect to make all services available at secondary facilities. These priorities align with the Package of Essential NCD Interventions-Plus. Efforts will require strengthened infrastructure and supply chains, capacity building for staff and new monitoring and evaluation systems for efficient implementation. Many countries will need targeted financial assistance in order to realize these goals. Nearly all (36/37) respondents request technical assistance to organize services for severe chronic NCDs.