Trends and forecasts of leprosy for a hyperendemic city from Brazil's northeast: Evidence from an eleven-year time-series analysis

Individual, socioeconomic and healthcare access factors influencing the delays in leprosy presentation, diagnosis and treatment: a qualitative study

BACKGROUND

This study investigated the factors influencing the presentation, diagnosis and treatment of leprosy in primary healthcare.

METHODS

Qualitative research was conducted on patients undergoing treatment in a priority hyperendemic region for leprosy control in northeastern Brazil. Interviews were conducted between September and December 2020 at primary healthcare centers. Data were analysed based on the basic interpretive qualitative structure according to Andersen and Newman's model of healthcare utilisation.

RESULTS

Knowledge of leprosy symptoms influenced patients' search for a diagnosis. Unfavorable socioeconomic conditions experienced by patients made diagnosis and treatment difficult. Incorrect evaluations by health professionals caused difficulties and delays in obtaining a diagnosis of leprosy. Perceptions about the disease, such as non-acceptance of the disease and the adverse effects of the medications, affected treatment seeking and treatment continuity.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with leprosy faced delays and healthcare access barriers related to knowledge of the disease, socioeconomic conditions and the structure of healthcare services, which must be considered when creating care plans, surveillance and control actions against leprosy. Appropriate interventions are necessary to reduce delays and better control the disease.

Epidemiological characteristics of leprosy from 2000 to 2019 in a state with low endemicity in southern Brazil

BACKGROUND

Leprosy is an infectious and contagious disease caused by Mycobacterium leprae and is mainly characterized by lesions in the skin and peripheral nerves. In Brazil, it is a public health problem due to its high endemicity. However, the state of Rio Grande do Sul presents low endemicity of this disease.

OBJECTIVE

To characterize the epidemiological profile of leprosy in the state of Rio Grande do Sul from 2000 to 2019.

METHODS

This was a retrospective observational study. Epidemiological data were collected from the Notifiable Diseases Information System (SINAN, Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação).

RESULTS

Among the 497 municipalities in the state, 357 (71.8%) registered cases of leprosy in the assessed period, with an average of 212 (81.5%) new cases per year. The average detection rate was 1.61 new cases per 100,000 inhabitants. The male sex was predominant (51.9%) and the mean age was 50.4 years. Regarding the epidemiological clinical profile; 79.0% of the patients were multibacillary; 37.5% presented the borderline clinical form; 16% had grade 2 physical disability at diagnosis and bacilloscopy was positive in 35.4% of cases. As for treatment, 73.8% of the cases were treated with the standard multibacillary therapeutic regimen.

STUDY LIMITATIONS

There were missing/inconsistent data in the database available.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings observed in this study indicate that the state presents a low endemicity profile of the disease and these results can support adequate health policies relevant to the reality of Rio Grande do Sul, inserted in a national scenario of highly endemic leprosy.

Comparing Short-Term Univariate and Multivariate Time-Series Forecasting Models in Infectious Disease Outbreak

Predicting infectious disease outbreak impacts on population, healthcare resources and economics and has received a special academic focus during coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Focus on human disease outbreak prediction techniques in current literature, Marques et al. (Predictive models for decision support in the COVID-19 crisis. Springer, Switzerland, 2021) state that there are four main methods to address forecasting problem: compartmental models, classic statistical models, space-state models and machine learning models. We adopt their framework to compare our research with previous works. Besides being divided by methods, forecasting problems can also be divided by the number of variables that are considered to make predictions. Considering this number of variables, forecasting problems can be classified as univariate, causal and multivariate models. Multivariate approaches have been applied in less than 10% of research found. This research is the first attempt to evaluate, over real time-series data of 3 different countries with univariate and multivariate methods to provide a short-term prediction. In literature we found no research with that scope and aim. A comparison of univariate and multivariate methods has been conducted and we concluded that besides the strong potential of multivariate methods, in our research univariate models presented best results in almost all regions' predictions.

Hansenapp: development of a mobile application to assist primary healthcare providers to control leprosy

OBJECTIVE

To describe the development and validation of a mobile application to assist health professionals in the management of patients with leprosy and surveillance of contacts in primary healthcare.

METHOD

A methodological and developmental study was conducted in three phases: integrative literature review, mobile application development, and application validation by health professionals. The construction of the application was supported by the literature review, Nielsen's heuristics, and expert validation. Five experts individually analyzed the prototype draft and performed two rounds of iterations to refine their recommendations. The validation step was performed by consulting health professionals working in primary healthcare, who evaluated the application for relevance, clarity and usability using a questionnaire based on task-technology fit theory.

RESULTS

The mobile app's content, navigation methods, and interaction were refined based on the discussions with experts. Their recommendations were applied, and the mobile app was revised until the final version was approved. Content validity indexes of 0.94 (p = 0.007), 0.99 (p > 0.0001), and 0.93 (p = 0.01) were obtained.

CONCLUSION

The developed application is a technological tool that could assist primary healthcare providers in dealing with leprosy patients and their contacts in terms of management, planning, monitoring, evaluation, treatment, and follow-up, in addition to leprosy control actions. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Serum Levels of Ficolin-3 and Mannose-Binding Lectin in Patients with Leprosy and Their Family Contacts in a Hyperendemic Region in Northeastern Brazil

The present study aimed at analyzing the serum levels of mannose-binding lectin (MBL) and ficolin-3 (FCN3) in leprosy patients and their healthy family contacts in a hyperendemic region in northeastern Brazil. A cross-sectional study was carried out with 90 patients who had been diagnosed with leprosy and 79 healthy family contacts. Serum levels of the MBL and FCN3 proteins were measured using the immunofluorometric assay (ELISA). Clinical information was determined from the patients’ charts. It was observed that the leprosy patients were more likely to be male (OR = 2.17; p = 0.01) and younger than fifteen years of age (OR = 2.01; p = 0.03) when compared to the family contacts. Those under 15 years of age had higher levels of MBL (4455 ng/mL) than those over 15 years of age (2342 ng/mL; p = 0.018). Higher FCN3 levels were identified in patients with indeterminate leprosy (41.9 µg/mL) compared to those with the lepromatous form (34.3 µg/mL; p = 0.033) and in those with no physical disabilities (38.1 µg/mL) compared to those with some disability (p = 0.031). Higher FCN3 levels were also observed in the group of patients without leprosy reactions (37.4 µg/mL) compared to those with type 1 (33.7 µg/mL) and type 2 (36.1 µg/mL) reactions. The MBL levels were higher in children under 15 years of age than they were in adults. It was evidenced that higher FCN3 serum levels were associated with early and transient clinical forms and lower expression in severe forms of leprosy.

Inequality of gender, age and disabilities due to leprosy and trends in a hyperendemic metropolis: Evidence from an eleven-year time series study in Central-West Brazil

The present study aimed to investigate the epidemiological situation of leprosy (Hansen’s Disease), in a hyperendemic metropolis in the Central-West region of Brazil. We studied trends over eleven years, both in the detection of the disease and in disabilities, analyzing disparities and/or differences regarding gender and age. This is an ecological time series study conducted in Cuiabá, capital of the state of Mato Grosso. The population consisted of patients diagnosed with leprosy between the years 2008 and 2018. The time series of leprosy cases was used, stratifying it according to gender (male and female), disability grade (G0D, G1D, G2D, and not evaluated) and age. The calendar adjustment technique was applied. For modeling the trends, the Seasonal-Trend decomposition procedure based on Loess (STL) was used. We identified 9.739 diagnosed cases, in which 58.37% were male and 87.55% aged between 15 and 59 years. Regarding detection according to gender, there was a decrease among women and an increase in men. The study shows an increasing trend in disabilities in both genders, which may be related to the delay in diagnosis. There was also an increasing number of cases that were not assessed for disability at the time of diagnosis, which denotes the quality of the services.

In the 2019 report, Brazil had a detection rate of 13.23 per 100.000 inhabitants far from the goal of less than 1 leprosy (Hansen’s Disease) case per 10,000 inhabitants describe by the World Health Organization. The present study aimed to investigate the epidemiological situation of leprosy and its trend between 2008 and 2018 in a hyperendemic metropolis in the Central-West region of Brazil. A total of 9.739 leprosy cases were reported between 2008 and 2018. The majority of cases were male (58.37%), with a predominant age of 15 to 59 years (87.55%). The predominant level of education was incomplete elementary school (43.96%). The disability grade at diagnosis showed that 40.19% had G0D and for the G2D was 8,.06%.There was a predominance in operational classification of multibacillary cases (72.85%). While detection rate trends in females and the majority of the age groups are decreasing, increases are seen in the detection of male patients and patients already suffering from disabilities. Although declining trends were presented, the metropolis is still not close to elimination showing the need prioritize leprosy actions and to improve care for this disease.

Social inequalities and their association with the leprosy burden in a Brazilian city of low endemicity: An ecological study

OBJECTIVE

To analyse the association between social inequalities and the leprosy burden in a low endemicity scenario in the state of São Paulo, Brazil.

METHODS

This ecological study was carried out in the city of Ribeirão Preto, state of São Paulo, Brazil, considering leprosy cases notified from 2006 to 2016. Regarding social inequalities, dimensions related to high household density, literacy, home occupation conditions, health conditions, household income, ethnicity and age were considered. The generalised additive model for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) was used to verify the association between the social inequalities and leprosy burden.

RESULTS

The increase in men and women with no education and people with an income of 1 to 2 minimum wages was associated with a relative increase in the number of leprosy cases (7.37%, 7.10% and 2.44%, respectively). Regarding the ethnicity variables, the increase in the proportion of men (black) and women (mixed race) with no schooling was associated with a relative increase in the number of cases of the disease (10.77% and 4.02%, respectively). Finally, for people of mixed race or ethnicity, the increase in the proportion of households with 1/2 to 1 minimum wage was related to a relative decrease in the total number of cases (-4.90%).

CONCLUSION

The results show that the determinants associated with the increase in leprosy cases are similar to those in Brazilian hyperendemic regions, and that even in cities with low endemicity, social inequality is one of the main determinants of the disease.