Preparing for the future: The changing demographic composition of hospital patients in Denmark between 2013 and 2050

Knowledge of aging, attitudes toward older people and willingness to engage in geriatric rehabilitation among rehabilitation students in southwestern China: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

As the global elderly population rises, providing quality care for older adults is increasingly challenging. Rehabilitation technicians are crucial in this effort. Their knowledge and attitudes significantly impact care quality and their willingness to work with the elderly. While many studies have examined healthcare professionals' attitudes toward older adults, few focus on rehabilitation students. This study assesses Chinese rehabilitation students' knowledge of aging, attitudes toward older individuals, willingness to care for them, and the factors influencing these aspects.

METHODS

A sample of 890 rehabilitation students from three colleges and universities in southwestern China was investigated with a self-administered questionnaire, which included socio-demographic information, the Palmore Facts on Aging Quiz, the Kogan's Attitude towards Older People Scale and the Chinese Version of the Interpersonal Reactivity Index. Data analyses were conducted using SPSS version 25.0. Descriptive statistics were used to illustrate the demographic characteristics of the respondents. The frequency and percentage of responses was calculated. Means and standard deviations were computed for general knowledge of aging, attitudes toward older people, and empathy. Independent t-tests and one-way ANOVA assessed differences in FAQ, KAOP, and IRI-C scores between groups. Pearson's correlation examined correlations among general knowledge of aging, attitudes toward older people and empathy ability. Chi-square or Fisher's exact tests compared willingness to engage in geriatric rehabilitation across different respondent characteristics. Hierarchical multiple regression analysis explored the independent effect of different variables on attitudes toward older people.

RESULTS

The Chinese rehabilitation students from three colleges and universities in southwestern China displayed a relatively low level of knowledge about aging, but a generally positive attitude towards older people. Females had significantly more positive attitudes toward older people than males(p<0.01). The students who had previous experience of being cared for by (maternal) grandparents, living with the elderly, and taking care of the elderly showed significantly more positive attitudes toward older people (p = 0.001, 0.007 and 0.007, respectively) and a significantly stronger willingness to engage in geriatric rehabilitation(p = 0.013, <0.01 and <0.01, respectively) than those who had not had these experiences. Students with good relationships with older people had more positive attitudes toward the elderly (p < 0.01) and greater willingness to engage in geriatric rehabilitation (p < 0.01). Those with frequent contact with the elderly also showed more positive attitudes (p < 0.01) and a stronger willingness to engage in geriatric rehabilitation (p = 0.002) compared to those with less contact. Knowledge of aging and empathy ability were both significantly positively related to attitudes toward older people and both independent predictors of attitudes toward older people(r = 0.143, p<0.01 and r = 0.337, p<0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

It is crucial to prepare rehabilitation students with adequate knowledge and positive attitudes to ensure the quality of rehabilitation and care provided to older people. Educators should adopt effective strategies to promote rehabilitation students' geriatric rehabilitation knowledge and increase their positive attitudes toward older people.

Estimation of the maximum potential cost saving from reducing serious adverse events in hospitalized patients

PURPOSE

The increasing use of advanced medical technologies to detect adverse events, for instance, artificial intelligence-assisted technologies, has shown promise in improving various aspects within health care but may also come with substantial expenses. Therefore, understanding the potential economic benefits can guide decision-making processes regarding implementation. We aimed to estimate the potential cost savings associated with reducing length of stay and avoiding readmissions within the framework of an artificial intelligence-assisted vital signs monitoring system.

METHODS

We used data from Danish national registries and coarsened exact matching to estimate the difference in length of stay and probability of readmission among adult in-hospital patients exposed to and not exposed to serious adverse events. We used these estimates to calculate the maximum potential savings that could be achieved by early detection of adverse events to reduce length of stay and avoid readmissions.

RESULTS

Patients exposed to serious adverse events during admission had 2.4 (95% CI: 2.4-2.5) additional hospital bed days and had 14% (95% CI 11%-17%) higher odds of readmissions compared with patients not exposed to such events. A base case scenario yielded maximum potential savings if one patient avoided a serious adverse event of EUR 2040 due to reduced length of stay and EUR 43 due to avoidance of readmissions caused by serious adverse events.

CONCLUSION

Reductions in serious adverse events are associated with decreased healthcare costs due to reduced length of stay and avoided readmissions. Artificial intelligence-assisted vital signs monitoring systems are one potential approach to reduce serious adverse events, however, the ability of this technology to reduce adverse events remains unclear. Comprehensive prospective analyses of such systems including the intervention and implementation costs are necessary to understand their full economic impact.

Complete versus culprit-only percutaneous coronary intervention in elderly patients with acute coronary syndrome and multivessel coronary artery disease: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Culprit-only percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is commonly performed for acute coronary syndrome (ACS) with multivessel coronary artery disease (MVD) in the elderly. Complete revascularization has been shown to benefit the general population, yet its safety and efficacy in older patients are uncertain.

METHODS

Following PRISMA guidelines, we systematically searched PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane databases for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) comparing complete versus culprit-only PCI in patients ≥65 years old with ACS and MVD. The primary outcome was major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). Secondary outcomes included myocardial infarction (MI), ischemia-driven revascularization (IDR), all-cause mortality, and cardiovascular mortality. Data were pooled using a random effects model with a restricted maximum likelihood estimator to generate risk ratios (RRs).

RESULTS

Five RCTs with 4105 patients aged ≥65 years were included. Compared with culprit-only PCI, complete revascularization reduced MI (RR 0.65; 95 % CI 0.49-0.85; p < 0.01). MACE (RR 0.75; 95 % CI 0.54-1.05; p = 0.09) and IDR (RR 0.41; 95 % CI 0.16-1.04; p = 0.06) were not significantly different between both strategies among those aged ≥65. However, there was a significant reduction in MI (RR 0.69; 95 % CI 0.49-0.96; p-value = 0.03), MACE (RR 0.78; 95 % CI 0.65-0.94; p < 0.01), and IDR (RR 0.60; 95 % CI 0.41-0.89; p < 0.01) in those aged ≥75.

CONCLUSIONS

In elderly patients aged ≥65 years with ACS and MVD, a strategy of complete revascularization by PCI reduces MI compared to culprit-only PCI with no significant difference in MACE and IDR. However, complete revascularization reduced MI, MACE, and IDR in those aged ≥75 years suggesting a possible benefit in this age group.

Improving diagnostics using extended point-of-care testing during in-home assessments of older adults with signs of emerging acute disease: a prospective observational non-randomised pilot and feasibility study

BACKGROUND

Delayed recognition of acute disease among older adults hinders timely management and increases the risk of hospital admission. Point-of-Care testing, including Focused Lung Ultrasound (FLUS) and in-home analysis of biological material, may support clinical decision-making in suspected acute respiratory disease. The aim of this study was to pilot test the study design for a planned randomised trial, investigate whether in-home extended use of point-of-care testing is feasible, and explore its' potential clinical impact.

METHODS

A non-randomised pilot and feasibility study was conducted during September-November 2021 in Kolding Municipality, Denmark. A FLUS-trained physician accompanied an acute community nurse on home-visits to citizens aged 65 + y with signs of acute respiratory disease. The acute community nurses did a clinical assessment (vital signs, capillary C-reactive protein and haemoglobin) and gave a presumptive diagnosis. Subsequently, the physician performed FLUS, venipuncture with bedside analysis (electrolytes, creatinine, white blood cell differential count), nasopharyngeal swab (PCR for upper respiratory pathogens), and urine samples (flow-cytometry). Primary outcomes were feasibility of study design and extended point-of-care testing; secondary outcome was the potential clinical impact of extended point-of-care testing.

RESULTS

One hundred consecutive individuals were included. Average age was 81.6 (SD ± 8.4). Feasibility of study design was acceptable, FLUS 100%, blood-analyses 81%, PCR for upper respiratory pathogens 79%, and urine flow-cytometry 4%. In addition to the acute community nurse's presumptive diagnosis, extended point-of-care testing identified 34 individuals with a condition in need of further evaluation by a physician.

CONCLUSION

Overall, in-home assessments with extended point-of-care testing are feasible and may aid to identify and handle acute diseases in older adults.

Patients with repeated acute admissions to somatic departments: sociodemographic characteristics, disease burden, and contact with primary healthcare sector - a retrospective register-based case-control study

BACKGROUND

Healthcare systems face escalating capacity challenges and patients with repeated acute admissions strain hospital resources disproportionately. However, studies investigating the characteristics of such patients across all public healthcare providers in a universal healthcare system are lacking.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate characteristics of patients with repeated acute admissions (three or more acute admissions within a calendar year) in regard to sociodemographic characteristics, disease burden, and contact with the primary healthcare sector.

METHODS

This matched register-based case-control study investigated repeated acute admissions from 1 January 2014 to 31 December 2018, among individuals, who resided in four Danish municipalities. The study included 6169 individuals with repeated acute admissions, matched 1:4 to individuals with no acute admissions and one to two acute admissions, respectively. Group comparisons were conducted using conditional logistic regression.

RESULTS

Receiving social benefits increased the odds of repeated acute admissions 9.5-fold compared with no acute admissions (odds ratio (OR) 9.5; 95% confidence interval (CI) 8.5; 10.6) and 3.4-fold compared with one to two acute admissions (OR 3.4; 95% CI 3.1; 3.7). The odds of repeated acute admissions increased with the number of used medications and chronic diseases. Having a mental illness increased the odds of repeated acute admissions 5.8-fold when compared with no acute admissions (OR 5.7; 95% CI 5.2; 6.4) and 2.3-fold compared with one to two acute admissions (OR 2.3; 95% CI 2.1; 2.5). Also, high use of primary sector services (e.g. nursing care) increased the odds of repeated acute admissions when compared with no acute admissions and one to two acute admissions.

CONCLUSIONS

This study pinpointed key factors encompassing social status, disease burden, and healthcare utilisation as pivotal markers of risk for repeated acute admissions, thus identifying high-risk patients and facilitating targeted intervention.

Extended use of point-of-care technology versus usual care for in-home assessment by acute community nurses in older adults with signs of potential acute respiratory disease: an open-label randomised controlled trial protocol

BACKGROUND

Due to ageing-related physiological changes, diagnosing older adults is challenging. Delayed disease recognition may lead to adverse health outcomes and increased hospitalisation, necessitating the development of new initiatives for timely diagnosis and treatment of older adults. Point-of-care technology, such as focused lung ultrasound scan and bedside analysis of blood samples (leucocytes with differential count, electrolytes, and creatinine) conducted in the patients' home, may support clinical decision-making, and potentially reduce acute hospital admissions. We present the protocol for a randomized controlled trial, which aims at assessing the effect of focused lung ultrasound scan and bedside blood analysis during in-home assessments among older adults with signs of potential acute respiratory disease on hospital admissions.

METHOD

We will use a parallel open-label, individually randomised controlled trial design in an acute community healthcare setting. The trial will initiate on October 2022 and is expected to end one year later. The study population will include older adults (65 + year), with at least one of the following inclusion criteria: Cough, dyspnoea, fever, fall, or rapid functional decline. Expected study sample will comprise 632 participants. Participants in the control group will receive usual care, while the intervention group will undergo extended point-of-care technology (focused lung ultrasound scan and bedside venous blood analysis), in addition to usual care. The primary outcome is acute hospital admission within 30 days follow-up. Secondary outcomes include readmissions, mortality, length of hospital stay, hospital-free days, complications during hospital admission, treatment initiations or changes, functional level, re-referrals to the acute community healthcare service, and contacts to the primary care physician. A tertiary outcome is the diagnostic accuracy of Acute Community Nurses for conducting focused lung ultrasound compared with a specialist. Outcomes will be analysed as intention-to-treat.

DISCUSSION

To our knowledge, this is the first randomised controlled trial examining the effect of extended use of point-of-care technology conducted in an in-home setting. We expect that the results may contribute to the development of new interventions aiming to improve timely diagnostics, treatment decisions, and reduce acute hospital admissions.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

www.

CLINICALTRIALS

org NCT05546073 (Date of registration: September 19th, 2022).

Modelling the effect of demographic change and healthcare infrastructure on the patient structure in German hospitals - a longitudinal national study based on official hospital statistics

BACKGROUND

Effects of demographic change, such as declining birth rates and increasing individual life expectancy, require health system adjustments offering age- and needs-based care. In addition, healthcare factors can also influence health services demand.

METHODS

The official German hospital statistics database with odd-numbered years between 1995 and 2011 was analysed. This is a national comprehensive database of all general hospital inpatient services delivered. Official data from hospital statistics were linked at the district level with demographic and socio-economic data as well as population figures from the official regional statistics. Panel data regression, modelling case numbers per hospital, was performed for 13 diagnosis groups that characterised the patient structure. Socio-demographic variables included age, sex, household income, and healthcare factors included bed capacity, personnel and hospital characteristics.

RESULTS

The median number of annual treatments per hospital increased from 6 015 (5th and 95th percentile [670; 24 812]) in 1995 to 7 817 in 2011 (5th and 95th percentile [301; 33 651]). We developed models characterising the patient structure of health care in Germany, considering both socio-demographic and hospital factors. Demographic factors influenced case numbers across all major diagnosis groups. For example, the age groups 65-74 and 75 + influenced cerebrovascular disease case numbers (p < 0.001). Other important factors included human and material resources of hospitals or the household income of patients. Distinct differences between the models for the individual diagnosis groups were observed.

CONCLUSIONS

Hospital planning should not only consider demographic change but also hospital infrastructure and socio-economic factors.

The surgical patient of yesterday, today, and tomorrow-a time-trend analysis based on a cohort of 8.7 million surgical patients

BACKGROUND

Global healthcare delivery is challenged by the aging population and the increase in obesity and type 2 diabetes. The extent to which such trends affect the cohort of patients the authors surgically operate on remains to be elucidated. Comprising of 8.7 million surgical patients, the American College of Surgeons (ACS) National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) database can be analyzed to investigate the echo of general population dynamics and forecast future trends.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

The authors reviewed the ACS-NSQIP database (2008-2020) in its entirety, extracting patient age, BMI, and diabetes prevalence. Based on these data, the authors forecasted future trends up to 2030 using a drift model.

RESULTS

During the review period, median age increased by 3 years, and median BMI by 0.9 kg/m2. The proportion of patients with overweight, obesity class I, and class II rates increased. The prevalence of diabetes rose between 2008 (14.9%) and 2020 (15.3%). The authors forecast the median age in 2030 to reach 61.5 years and median BMI to climb to 29.8 kg/m2. Concerningly, in 2030, eight of ten surgical patients are projected to have a BMI above normal. Diabetes prevalence is projected to rise to 15.6% over the next decade.

CONCLUSION

General population trends echo in the field of surgery, with the surgical cohort aging at an alarmingly rapid rate and increasingly suffering from obesity and diabetes. These trends show no sign of abating without dedicated efforts and call for urgent measures and fundamental re-structuring for improved future surgical care.

Structured decision support to prevent hospitalisations of community-dwelling older adults in Denmark (PATINA): an open-label, stepped-wedge, cluster-randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Ageing populations and health-care staff shortages encourage efforts in primary care to recognise and prevent health deterioration and acute hospitalisation in community-dwelling older adults. The PATINA algorithm and decision-support tool alerts home-based-care nurses to older adults at risk of hospitalisation. The study aim was to test whether use of the PATINA tool was associated with changes in health-care use.

METHODS

An open-label, stepped-wedge, cluster-randomised controlled trial was done in three Danish municipalities, covering 20 area teams providing home-based care to around 7000 recipients. During a period of 12 months, area teams were randomly assigned to an intervention crossover for older adults (aged 65 years or older) who received care at home. The primary outcome was hospitalisation within 30 days of identification by the algorithm as being at risk of hospitalisation. Secondary outcomes were hospital readmission and other hospital contacts, outpatient contacts, contact with primary care physicians (PCPs), temporary care, and death, within 30 days of identification. This study was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NTC04398797).

FINDINGS

In total, 2464 older adults participated in the study: 1216 (49·4%) in the control phase and 1248 (50·6%) in the intervention phase. In the control phase, 102 individuals were hospitalised within 30 days during 33 943 days of risk (incidence 0·09 per 30 days), compared with 118 individuals within 34 843 days of risk (0·10 per 30 days) during the intervention phase. The intervention was not associated with a reduction in the number of first hospitalisations within 30 days (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 1·10 [90% CI 0·90-1·40]; p=0·28). Furthermore it was not associated with reduced rates of other hospital contacts (IRR 1·10 [95% CI 0·90-1·40]; p=0·28), outpatient contacts (1·10 [0·88-1·40]; p=0·42), or mortality (0·82 [0·58-1·20]; p=0·25). The intervention was associated with a 59% reduction in readmissions within 30 days of hospital discharge (IRR 0·41 [95% CI 0·24-0·68]; p=0·0007), a 140% increase in contacts with PCPs (2·40 [1·18-3·20]; p<0·0001), and a 150% increase in use of temporary care (2·50 [1·40-4·70]; p=0·0027).

INTERPRETATION

Despite having no effect on the primary outcome, the PATINA tool showed other benefits for older adults receiving home-based care. Such algorithms have the potential to shift health-care use from secondary to primary care but need to be tested in other home-based care settings. Implementation of algorithms in clinical practice should be informed by analysis of cost-effectiveness and potential harms as well as the benefits.

FUNDING

Innovation Fund Denmark and Region of Southern Denmark.

TRANSLATIONS

For the Danish, French and German translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Direct healthcare cost of hospital admissions for chronic non-communicable diseases sensitive to primary care in the elderly

Aging has imposed changes in the epidemiological profile and an increase in the prevalence of chronic non-communicable diseases (CNCDs). The aim was to estimate the direct cost related to hospital admissions of elderly people affected by CNCDs (hypertension, heart failure and diabetes mellitus) sensitive to primary care, in a medium-sized hospital, in the period 2015-2019. Secondly, we investigated whether clinical and demographic factors explain the costs and length of stay. The medical records of 165 elderly people were analyzed. We found a predominance of women with a mean age of 76.9 years. The most frequent cause of hospitalization was heart failure (62%), and the average length of stay was 9.5 days, and 16% of hospitalizations corresponded to rehospitalizations. Of these, 81% were caused by complications from the previous hospitalization. The estimated total cost was R$ 3 million. Male patients had a longer hospital stay compared to female patients. Hypertension and the total number of procedures were significant predictors of cost and length of stay. We found that in 5 years, the costs of hospital admissions for conditions sensitive to primary care in the elderly are considerable, indicating the relevance of investments in primary care.

Twenty-Three-Year Trends in the Use of Potentially Nephrotoxic Drugs in Denmark

Background

The occurrence of acute and chronic kidney diseases has been rising in the last decades. Although drug use is a common risk factor for impaired kidney function, changes in utilization of potential nephrotoxic drugs have received little attention.

Purpose

To describe temporal trends in the utilization of potentially nephrotoxic drugs in Denmark between 1999 and 2021.

Methods

Specific drugs known or suspected to be nephrotoxic were identified in the literature. Data on the sold defined daily doses (DDDs) of potentially nephrotoxic drugs between 1999 and 2021 were retrieved using the Danish Register of Medical Product Statistics. Trends in sales of DDDs per 1000 inhabitants per day were tabulated and illustrated graphically.

Results

From 1999 to 2021, the total sale of all selected drugs increased from 286 to 457 DDDs per 1000 inhabitants per day. The overall sale reached a preliminary peak in 2012 with 449 DDDs per 1000 inhabitants per day and remained relatively stable thereafter until reaching an all-time high in 2021 with 457 DDDs per 1000 inhabitants per day. Contributing with the majority in volume, sales of drugs inhibiting the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system (RAAS) increased dramatically throughout the period. The same was observed for acetaminophen, methotrexate, tacrolimus, and iodinated contrast dye. In contrast, the sales of diuretics, acetylsalicylic acid, and ciclosporin decreased during the last decade of the study period.

Conclusion

From 1999-2021 considerable changes in sales of potentially nephrotoxic drugs were observed. In general, the sales increased, in volume predominated by RAAS inhibiting drugs. This increase in sales of potential nephrotoxins could contribute to an increasing occurrence of kidney diseases.

Direct healthcare cost of hospital admissions for chronic non-communicable diseases sensitive to primary care in the elderly

Abstract Aging has imposed changes in the epidemiological profile and an increase in the prevalence of chronic non-communicable diseases (CNCDs). The aim was to estimate the direct cost related to hospital admissions of elderly people affected by CNCDs (hypertension, heart failure and diabetes mellitus) sensitive to primary care, in a medium-sized hospital, in the period 2015-2019. Secondly, we investigated whether clinical and demographic factors explain the costs and length of stay. The medical records of 165 elderly people were analyzed. We found a predominance of women with a mean age of 76.9 years. The most frequent cause of hospitalization was heart failure (62%), and the average length of stay was 9.5 days, and 16% of hospitalizations corresponded to rehospitalizations. Of these, 81% were caused by complications from the previous hospitalization. The estimated total cost was R$ 3 million. Male patients had a longer hospital stay compared to female patients. Hypertension and the total number of procedures were significant predictors of cost and length of stay. We found that in 5 years, the costs of hospital admissions for conditions sensitive to primary care in the elderly are considerable, indicating the relevance of investments in primary care.

Older patients acutely admitted and readmitted to the same geriatric department: a descriptive cohort study of primary diagnoses and health characteristics

PURPOSE

Advancing age is associated with increased risk for acute admissions and readmissions. The societal challenges of ageing populations have made the prevention of readmissions come into focus. Readmission may be perceived as the result of inadequate treatment during index admission but may also be caused by the onset of new disease following a generally impaired health of geriatric patients. We aimed at comparing the diagnoses at index and readmission to illuminate this issue.

METHODS

This is a descriptive, retrospective cohort study of patients acutely admitted and readmitted (within 30 days from discharge) to the same geriatric ward (November 1, 2017-April 30, 2018). Electronic medical records were scrutinised manually for discharge diagnoses and patient characteristics.

RESULTS

Readmission rate was 10.7% (98 of 918 unique admissions). Mean age was 85.6 (men 56%). About 75% were readmitted with a new acute disease unrelated to index admission, most commonly pneumonia (27%), other infections (22%), and dehydration (14%). The health characteristics were long index length-of-stay (median 7; IQR 5-11), high Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI ≥ 3, n = 49 (50%), polypharmacy (≥ 5 prescriptions) (94%), and hospitalisations 12 months prior to index admission (57%).

KEY CONCLUSIONS

The majority of readmitted geriatric patients have contracted a new acute condition. Although being characterised by several adverse health characteristics, prospective studies comparing readmitted and non-readmitted geriatric patients are needed. Still, increasing the awareness of early recognition of acute disease onset in geriatric patients is warranted.