Incidence trend of type 2 diabetes from 2012 to 2021 in Germany: an analysis of health claims data of 11 million statutorily insured people

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

The aim of the study is to describe the time trend of type 2 diabetes incidence in the largest state of Germany, Bavaria, from 2012 to 2021, and to compare the incidence rates during the pandemic period (2020-2021) to the pre-pandemic period (2012-2019).

METHODS

This secondary data analysis uses health claims data provided by the Bavarian Association of Statutory Health Insurance Physicians (KVB), covering approximately 11 million insurees, accounting for 85% of the total population of Bavaria, Germany. Newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes cases in adults (≥20 years) coded as E11 (Diabetes mellitus, Type 2) or E14 (Unspecified diabetes mellitus) under ICD-10, German modification (ICD-10-GM) for the study period 2012 to 2021 were included. Annual and quarterly age-standardised incidence rates (ASIR) stratified by sex, age and region were calculated using the European standard population. Sex-specific crude incidence rates (CIR) were calculated using 10-year age groups. Regression analyses adjusted for time trends, seasonal effects, and pandemic effects were used to analyse the incidence trend and to assess the effect of the pandemic.

RESULTS

Overall, 745,861 new cases of type 2 diabetes were diagnosed between 2012 and 2021: 50.4% (376,193 cases) in women. The male/female ratio remained stable over the observation period, while the median age at diagnosis decreased from 61 to 58 years in men and from 66 years to 61 years in women. ASIR were consistently higher for men compared with women, with the yearly difference remaining stable over time (2012: 18%; 2021: 20%). An overall decreasing trend in ASIR was observed during the study period, with a strong decrease from 2012 to 2017, followed by a less pronounced decline from 2018 to 2021 for both sexes. For men, ASIR decreased from 1514 per 100,000 person-years in 2012 to 995 per 100,000 person-years in 2021 (4.6% average annual reduction), and for women from 1238 per 100,000 person-years in 2012 to 796 per 100,000 person-years in 2021 (4.8% average annual reduction). This downward trend was also observed for age groups above 50 years. Regression analyses showed no significant change in incidence rates during the pandemic period (2020 and 2021) compared with the pre-pandemic period.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

For the first time, a 10-year incidence trend of type 2 diabetes is reported for Germany, showing a strong decline from 2012 to 2017, followed by a less pronounced decline from 2018 to 2021. The incidence trend of type 2 diabetes appears not to have been affected by the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite an overall increasing prevalence, the incidence is decreasing, potentially resulting from robust screening by family physicians, reducing the median age at diagnosis by 3 to 5 years. However, further investigation is needed to fully identify the reasons for the declining incidence trend. Continued incidence monitoring is necessary to identify the long-term trend and the potential effect of the pandemic on diagnoses of type 2 diabetes.

Histology-specific standardized incidence ratio improves the estimation of second primary lung cancer risk

BACKGROUND

Lung cancer (LC) survivors are at increased risk for developing a second primary cancer (SPC) compared to the general population. While this risk is particularly high for smoking-related SPCs, the published standardized incidence ratio (SIR) for lung cancer after lung cancer is unexpectedly low in countries that follow international multiple primary (IARC/IACR MP) rules when compared to the USA, where distinct rules are employed. IARC/IACR rules rely on histology-dependent documentation of SPC with the same location as the first cancer and only classify an SPC when tumors present different histology. Thus, SIR might be underestimated in cancer registries using these rules. This study aims to assess whether using histology-specific reference rates for calculating SIR improves risk estimates for second primary lung cancer (SPLC) in LC survivors.

METHODS

We (i) use the distribution of histologic subtypes of LC in population-based cancer registry data of 11 regional cancer registries from Germany to present evidence that the conventional SIR metric underestimates the actual risk for SPLC in LC survivors in registries that use IARC/IACR MP rules, (ii) present updated risk estimates for SPLC in Germany using a novel method to calculate histological subtype-specific SIRs, and (iii) validate this new method using US SEER (Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program) data, where different MP rules are applied.

RESULTS

The adjusted relative risk for lung cancer survivors in Germany to develop an SPLC was 2.98 (95% CI 2.53-3.49) for females and 1.15 (95% CI 1.03-1.27) for males using the novel histology-specific SIR. When using IARC/IACR MP rules, the conventional SIR underestimates the actual risk for SPLC in LC survivors by approximately 30% for both sexes.

CONCLUSIONS

Our proposed histology-specific method makes the SIR metric more robust against MP rules and, thus, more suitable for cross-country comparisons.

An audit of 1632 routinely collected cervical cancer screening smears from 398 women in Germany: Results from the TeQaZ Study

OBJECTIVE

There is evidence in Germany that half of the cervical cancer (CC) cases had undergone screening frequently in the decade preceding their diagnosis, signaling cytology quality issues. This study investigates routine smear assessment accuracy in Germany.

METHODS

Within a population-based case-control study in 9 German states, we recruited cases (women with a histologically confirmed diagnosis of CC) and population controls (women with no history of CC or hysterectomy). Two independent expert cytologists audited Pap smears taken within the 10 years preceding CC diagnosis (cases)/study entry (controls). We report the prevalence of positive results, as well as routine assessment's accuracy, as sensitivity, specificity, false-positive and false-negative rates along with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). We also examined cases' smear history, to investigate possible false-positive recurrence.

RESULTS

We audited 1632 smears of 392 women (18.9% cases, 81.1% controls). In the routine assessment, the overall prevalence of positive results was 4.5% (29.0% among cases). According to the expert audit, the overall prevalence of positive results was 7.7% (40.8% among cases). When restricting analyses to the 3 years preceding diagnosis/study entry, this prevalence increased to 11.9% overall (61.4% among cases). The overall sensitivity of the routine assessment was 54.9% (66.8% for cases).

CONCLUSION

As cytology remains an important part of CC screening, quality issues must be urgently addressed in Germany. Shifting to objective methods such as primary high-risk HPV screening followed by triaging may help CC elimination in Germany.

Clusters of longitudinal risk profile trajectories are associated with cardiometabolic diseases: Results from the population-based KORA cohort

BACKGROUND

Multiple risk factors contribute jointly to the development and progression of cardiometabolic diseases. Therefore, joint longitudinal trajectories of multiple risk factors might represent different degrees of cardiometabolic risk.

METHODS

We analyzed population-based data comprising three examinations (Exam 1: 1999-2001, Exam 2: 2006-2008, Exam 3: 2013-2014) of 976 male and 1004 female participants of the KORA cohort (Southern Germany). Participants were followed up for cardiometabolic diseases, including cardiovascular mortality, myocardial infarction and stroke, or a diagnosis of type 2 diabetes, until 2016. Longitudinal multivariate k-means clustering identified sex-specific trajectory clusters based on nine cardiometabolic risk factors (age, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, body-mass-index, waist circumference, Hemoglobin-A1c, total cholesterol, high- and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol). Associations between clusters and cardiometabolic events were assessed by logistic regression models.

RESULTS

We identified three trajectory clusters for men and women, respectively. Trajectory clusters reflected a distinct distribution of cardiometabolic risk burden and were associated with prevalent cardiometabolic disease at Exam 3 (men: odds ratio (OR)ClusterII = 2.0, 95% confidence interval: (0.9-4.5); ORClusterIII = 10.5 (4.8-22.9); women: ORClusterII = 1.7 (0.6-4.7); ORClusterIII = 5.8 (2.6-12.9)). Trajectory clusters were furthermore associated with incident cardiometabolic cases after Exam 3 (men: ORClusterII = 3.5 (1.1-15.6); ORClusterIII = 7.5 (2.4-32.7); women: ORClusterII = 5.0 (1.1-34.1); ORClusterIII = 8.0 (2.2-51.7)). Associations remained significant after adjusting for a single time point cardiovascular risk score (Framingham).

CONCLUSIONS

On a population-based level, distinct longitudinal risk profiles over a 14-year time period are differentially associated with cardiometabolic events. Our results suggest that longitudinal data may provide additional information beyond single time-point measures. Their inclusion in cardiometabolic risk assessment might improve early identification of individuals at risk.

Behavioral weight loss interventions for people with physical disabilities: A systematic review

AIM

The aim of this study is to examine which interventions lead to clinically significant weight loss among people with physical disabilities.

METHODS

We systematically searched three electronic databases (PubMed, Scopus, and CENTRAL) including studies until May 2022 to find randomized controlled trials on behavioral interventions and weight-related outcomes in people with physical disabilities. Pharmacological or surgical interventions were excluded. Study quality was evaluated using the Cochrane Risk of Bias Tool. Interventions were grouped as dietary, physical activity, education/coaching, or multi-component. Mean weight changes, standard deviations, confidence intervals, and effect sizes were extracted or calculated for assessment of the intervention effect.

RESULTS

Sixty studies involving 6,511 participants were included in the qualitative synthesis. Most studies (n = 32) included multi-component interventions, incorporating dietary and physical activity components. Limited evidence suggests that extensive dietary interventions or long-term multi-component interventions might lead to a clinically relevant weight reduction of at least 5% for older individuals (age > 50) with mild-to-moderate mobility impairments.

DISCUSSION

Due to the high heterogeneity of studies and low study quality, it can be assumed that the range of applicability of the findings is questionable. Further research should examine younger age groups (i.e., children, adolescents, and adults under 40 years) and compare different settings such as schools, clinics, nursing homes, and assisted living facilities.

The Association of Women's Empowerment with HIV-Related Indicators: A Pooled Analysis of Demographic and Health Surveys in Sub-Saharan Africa

BACKGROUND

Women's empowerment is an important factor for HIV prevention, but the association with HIV-related indicators has never been quantified. In this study, we examined the association between women's empowerment and selected HIV-related indicators.

METHODS

We used the latest Demographic and Health Surveys that included HIV testing among other biomarkers of 31 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Empowerment was measured by the Survey-based Women's EmPowERment (SWPER) index and was compared to the HIV-related indicators: HIV status, HIV testing (ever and in the past 12 months), condom use at last high-risk sex, the ability to ask the partner to use a condom, and the ability to refuse sex.

RESULTS

208,947 women were included in the analysis, of whom 100,924 (48%) were considered highly empowered and 21,933 (10%) as lowly empowered. There was no association between empowerment and HIV status (OR = 1.12, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.98-1.28). Highly empowered women were more likely to have ever been tested for HIV (OR = 1.67, 95% CI 1.60-1.74) but less likely to have been tested for HIV in the past 12 months (OR = 0.92, 95%CI 0.88-0.96). Highly empowered women were more commonly able to ask the partner to use a condom (OR = 1.69, 95% CI 1.63-1.75) and to refuse sex (OR = 1.78, 95%CI 1.72-1.85).

CONCLUSIONS

Women's empowerment does not seem to be linked to HIV status, but it is strongly associated with a woman's ability to make decisions about their sexual behavior. Empowering women and young girls has the potential to contribute toward achieving the United Nations' goal of ending AIDS by 2030.

Second primary cancer among 217702 colorectal cancer survivors: An analysis of national German cancer registry data

With improvements in survival after colorectal cancer (CRC), more survivors are at risk of developing a second cancer, particularly in younger populations where CRC incidence is increasing. We estimated the incidence of second primary cancer (SPC) in CRC survivors and its potential risk factors. We identified CRC cases diagnosed between 1990 and 2011 and SPCs until 2013 from nine German cancer registries. Standardized incidence ratios (SIR) and absolute excess risk (AER) per 10 000 person-years were calculated and were stratified by index site: colon cancer (CC) and rectal cancer (RC), age and sex. Cox regression assessed potential SPC risk factors, including primary tumor-related therapy considering death as a competing risk. We included 217 202 primary CRC cases. SPC occurred in 18 751 CRC survivors (8.6%; median age: 69 years). Risk of cancer was significantly higher in CRC survivors than in the general population (SIR males 1.14, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.12-1.17, AER = 24.7; SIR females 1.20, 95% CI 1.17-1.23, AER = 22.8). Increased risks of SPCs were observed for the digestive system, urinary system and female and male reproductive organs. CRC incidence increased in younger persons (<50 years) and SPC incidence was 4-fold in this group (SIR males 4.51, 95% CI 4.04-5.01, AER = 64.2; SIR females 4.03, 95% CI 3.62-4.48, AER = 77.0). Primary tumor-related factors associated with SPC risk were right-sided cancer and smaller primary tumor size. Treatment and risk of SPC differed for CC (no effect) and RC (lower risk after chemotherapy). CRC survivors have excess risk of developing SPC, with particular characteristics that could guide targeted surveillance.

Modelling the effect of demographic change and healthcare infrastructure on the patient structure in German hospitals - a longitudinal national study based on official hospital statistics

BACKGROUND

Effects of demographic change, such as declining birth rates and increasing individual life expectancy, require health system adjustments offering age- and needs-based care. In addition, healthcare factors can also influence health services demand.

METHODS

The official German hospital statistics database with odd-numbered years between 1995 and 2011 was analysed. This is a national comprehensive database of all general hospital inpatient services delivered. Official data from hospital statistics were linked at the district level with demographic and socio-economic data as well as population figures from the official regional statistics. Panel data regression, modelling case numbers per hospital, was performed for 13 diagnosis groups that characterised the patient structure. Socio-demographic variables included age, sex, household income, and healthcare factors included bed capacity, personnel and hospital characteristics.

RESULTS

The median number of annual treatments per hospital increased from 6 015 (5th and 95th percentile [670; 24 812]) in 1995 to 7 817 in 2011 (5th and 95th percentile [301; 33 651]). We developed models characterising the patient structure of health care in Germany, considering both socio-demographic and hospital factors. Demographic factors influenced case numbers across all major diagnosis groups. For example, the age groups 65-74 and 75 + influenced cerebrovascular disease case numbers (p < 0.001). Other important factors included human and material resources of hospitals or the household income of patients. Distinct differences between the models for the individual diagnosis groups were observed.

CONCLUSIONS

Hospital planning should not only consider demographic change but also hospital infrastructure and socio-economic factors.

A systematic review of clinical health conditions predicted by machine learning diagnostic and prognostic models trained or validated using real-world primary health care data

With the advances in technology and data science, machine learning (ML) is being rapidly adopted by the health care sector. However, there is a lack of literature addressing the health conditions targeted by the ML prediction models within primary health care (PHC) to date. To fill this gap in knowledge, we conducted a systematic review following the PRISMA guidelines to identify health conditions targeted by ML in PHC. We searched the Cochrane Library, Web of Science, PubMed, Elsevier, BioRxiv, Association of Computing Machinery (ACM), and IEEE Xplore databases for studies published from January 1990 to January 2022. We included primary studies addressing ML diagnostic or prognostic predictive models that were supplied completely or partially by real-world PHC data. Studies selection, data extraction, and risk of bias assessment using the prediction model study risk of bias assessment tool were performed by two investigators. Health conditions were categorized according to international classification of diseases (ICD-10). Extracted data were analyzed quantitatively. We identified 106 studies investigating 42 health conditions. These studies included 207 ML prediction models supplied by the PHC data of 24.2 million participants from 19 countries. We found that 92.4% of the studies were retrospective and 77.3% of the studies reported diagnostic predictive ML models. A majority (76.4%) of all the studies were for models' development without conducting external validation. Risk of bias assessment revealed that 90.8% of the studies were of high or unclear risk of bias. The most frequently reported health conditions were diabetes mellitus (19.8%) and Alzheimer's disease (11.3%). Our study provides a summary on the presently available ML prediction models within PHC. We draw the attention of digital health policy makers, ML models developer, and health care professionals for more future interdisciplinary research collaboration in this regard.

Prevalence and risk of psychological distress, anxiety and depression in adolescent and young adult (AYA) cancer survivors: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Adolescent and young adult (AYA) cancer survivors (CS) face unique psychosocial challenges, which may affect their mental health. However, there are inconsistencies in AYA definitions and varying prevalence data on psychological distress, anxiety, and depression. We aimed to synthesize published literature on prevalence, risk, longitudinal changes, and predictors for these outcomes and estimate pooled prevalences.

METHODS

We searched for observational studies published in English before June 1 2022, in PubMed, PsycINFO, Scopus, and Web of Science. Two researchers extracted independently information on study characteristics, prevalence, and risk. The pooled prevalence (PP) of psychological distress, anxiety, and depression was estimated using random-effects models. Geographical region, treatment status, and assessment instruments were considered in stratified meta-analyses.

RESULTS

Sixty-eight studies were included in the systematic review and 57 in the meta-analyses. We estimated an overall prevalence of 32% (n = 30; 4226/15,213 AYAs; 95% CI, 23%-42%; I2  = 99%) for psychological distress, 29% for anxiety (n = 24; 2828/8751 AYAs; 95% CI, 23%-36%; I2  = 98%), and 24% (n = 35; 3428/16,638 AYAs; 95% CI, 18%-31%; I2  = 98%) for depression. The range of PP of psychological distress varied across geographical regions, treatment status, and assessment instruments. The PP of anxiety varied significantly across continents, while no variations were seen for depression. Studies found higher risks for psychological distress, anxiety, and depression in AYAs compared to older cancer survivors or cancer-free peers.

CONCLUSIONS

Our research found that one in three AYA-CS experience psychological distress or anxiety and one in four are affected by depression, highlighting the need for specialized psychological services for AYA-CS in oncology settings and AYA-focused interventions.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on reported cancer diagnoses in Bavaria, Germany

PURPOSE

The aim of our study was to explore the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on reported cancer cases in Bavaria, Germany, by comparing pre-pandemic (March 2019 to February 2020) and pandemic period (March 2020 to February 2021).

METHODS

Data on incident cases were retrieved from the Bavarian Cancer Registry (until 22nd April 2022). We included patients with malignant and in situ neoplasms reported by pathology departments with consistent reporting. We calculated the number of incident cases during the COVID-19 pandemic and the pre-pandemic period with 95% confidence intervals (CI) with Bonferroni correction (α = 0.0018) based on a Poisson approach. We stratified for malignancy (malignant, in situ), tumor site, and month of year.

RESULTS

Data was available for 30 out of 58 pathology departments (51.7%) from Bavaria. Incident malignant neoplasms dropped from 42,857 cases in the pre-pandemic period to 39,980 cases in the pandemic period (- 6.7%; 95% CI - 8.7%, - 4.7%). Reductions were higher for colon, rectum, skin/melanoma as well as liver (> 10.0% reduction) and less for breast cancer (4.9% reduction). No case reductions were observed for pancreas, esophagus, ovary, and cervix. Percent changes were largest for April 2020 (- 20.9%; 95% CI - 24.7%, - 16.8%) and January 2021 (- 25.2%; 95% CI - 28.8%, - 21.5%) compared to the previous year. Declines tended to be larger for in situ compared to malignant neoplasms.

CONCLUSION

Detection and diagnosis of cancer were substantially reduced during the COVID-19 pandemic. Potential effects, e.g. a stage shift of tumors or an increase of cancer mortality, need to be monitored.

Epidemiology of cervical cancer in elderly women: Analysis of incidence, treatment, and survival using German registry data

BACKGROUND

Cervical cancer (CC) screening is generally recommended until age 65. The incidence of CC could be underestimated, particularly in older women, due to a lack of hysterectomy correction. Furthermore, elderly women (≥65 years) are more often diagnosed with late-stage disease and have worse outcomes than younger patients. This study aims to provide an in-depth overview of CC in Germany.

METHODS

Incidence rates of CC (ICD-10 C53) were determined using data from the German Centre of Cancer Registry data (ZfKD) of six federal state registries. Incidence was corrected by using hysterectomy prevalence values from a real-world study. The distribution of treatment modalities (surgery, chemotherapy, radiation therapy) was assessed. Relative survival was calculated using the period approach (2011-2015). Survival was stratified by tumor (T) stage and histological type.

RESULTS

In total, 14,528 CC cases were included, 27.6% of which occurred in elderly women. Cumulative (2001-2015) age-standardized incidence rates were 12.5 per 100,000 women without hysterectomy correction and 15.5 per 100,000 women after hysterectomy correction (+24% relative change). A lower proportion of elderly women were treated, especially in advanced tumor stages. Younger women (20-64 years) had a higher 5-year relative survival compared to elderly women: 76.7% versus 46.9%, respectively. Survival was worse with increasing stage and for glandular histological subgroups, particularly among elderly women.

CONCLUSIONS

CC incidence in elderly women is underestimated and survival is lower compared to younger women in Germany. Due to the high disease burden in elderly women, screening and treatment strategies need to be improved.

Determinants of stunting among children under age five in Burundi: Evidence from the 2016-2017 Burundi Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS 2016-17)

Burundi has one of the highest prevalence of stunting in the world. This study aimed to identify determinants of stunting among children under age five in Burundi. A total of 4993 children with anthropometric measurements from the 2016-2017 Burundi Demographic and Health Survey were included in the study. Stunting was assessed from the height-for-age Z-scores (HAZ). Logistic regression models were analyzed to identify demographic, maternal, child-related, and structural variables that influence stunting. In total, 56.9% of children under age five were stunted, of those 31.0% moderately and 25.9% severely. Multivariable logistic regression indicated that older children, male children (adjusted OR (aOR) = 1.41, 95% CI 1.24-1.61), and children who were perceived as small (aOR = 2.00, 95% CI 1.55-2.59) or very small at birth (aOR = 2.37, 95% CI 1.57-3.59) were significantly more likely to be stunted. Moreover, children of single mothers, with lower levels of education, who were underweight at the time of the survey (aOR = 1.95, 95% CI 1.42-2.68), who had short stature (aOR = 3.76, 95% CI 2.50-5.66) or who conceived more than four children (aOR = 1.22, 95% CI 1.05-1.42) were more commonly stunted. Stunting was more prevalent in rural areas (aOR = 2.53, 95% CI 1.72-3.73) and in households with no access to improved types of toilet facilities (aOR = 1.27, 95% CI 1.10-1.45). The results of this study show that the prevalence of stunting in children under age five in Burundi is alarmingly high and underscores the urgent need for decisive and determined action.

Health risks of titanium dioxide (TiO2) dust exposure in occupational settings - A scoping review

Titanium dioxide (TiO₂) is an inorganic compound with many applications, for example in paint, sunscreen or as food coloring. There have been concerns regarding its safety and according to IARC, the existing evidence is not substantial enough to rule them out, leading to the substance being classified as possibly carcinogenic to humans (2B). This work aims to provide a comprehensible overview about epidemiological studies on occupational health risks and methodological aspects. A literature search was conducted in two databases (MEDLINE and Web of Science). The search focused on occupational exposure since this setting provides the highest amounts of TiO₂ exposure. Of 443 unique search results, ten were included in this study, with publication dates ranging from 1988 to 2022. Seven of them are retrospective cohort studies and three have a case-control study design. Main outcomes of most studies were all-cause mortality and lung cancer mortality. For all-cause mortality, most cohort studies reported no association with TiO₂ exposure. For lung cancer mortality, a significantly increased risk was found in a study population from Europe. The analysis results of working cohorts from the US comparing exposed workers' mortality rates with those of the general population were unobtrusive. However, one US cohort found an elevated mortality risk for all causes and lung cancer based on a reference population of company workers unexposed to TiO₂. Case-control studies did not indicate an increased risk for cancer related to TiO₂. Recent publications partly questioned the validity of those earlier findings, claiming insufficient confounder analysis, most notably for smoking, as well as the presence of the healthy worker effect, masking a potential health risk. In conclusion, the associations between occupational TiO₂ exposure and mortality are unclear, but concerns regarding possible health risks recently re-emerged based on new analytical approaches, highlighting methodological difficulties that could have limited the inferential value of previously conducted studies.

Opportunities to inform German residents about the possibility of skin cancer screening and to inform stakeholders to take appropriate actions: A qualitative approach

BACKGROUND

The national skin cancer screening (SCS) was introduced in Germany in 2008. However, public awareness and participation rates remain low. There are no campaigns or target group-specific invitation strategies for SCS yet. Thus, our aim was to derive potential suggestions on how to best inform German residents about the possibility of SCS.

METHODS

Semi-structured, individual interviews with male and female German residents aged ≥35 years were conducted in Erlangen (Germany) to explore opportunities on raising awareness of SCS. Interviews were audiotaped, transcribed verbatim, and analyzed using qualitative content analysis.

RESULTS

Overall, 39 persons were interviewed. About 79.5% (31/39) had already undergone at least one SCS. Numerous opportunities to raise awareness of the possibility of SCS were suggested which were categorized into three main topics: the role of public promotion, health-related caregivers, and health insurance. Similar themes were identified for inviting entitled persons to undergo SCS after 2 years. Furthermore, age-dependent communication approaches were proposed, that is, younger persons should be approached electronically, while the older generation should be targeted with traditional media like mail.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of this project will inform stakeholders to take appropriate actions. The findings may contribute to increase participation rates in SCS and thus lead to earlier detection of skin cancer.

The Rising Incidence of Early-Onset Colorectal Cancer

BACKGROUND

The incidence of early-onset (diagnosis before age 50) colorectal cancer (EOCRC) is increasing in some high-income countries. In this study, we examined the trends in EO-CRC incidence in Germany.

METHODS

We obtained data on CRC (ICD-10 C18-C20) incidence from the Centre for Cancer Registry Data (excluding cases reported via death certificate only) and on mortality from the official cause of death statistics for 1999-2018 from registries with sufficient incidence coverage. To assess time trends for persons aged 20-49 we calculated the average annual percent changes (AAPC) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). The incidence analyses were stratified by sex, site (proximal colon, distal colon, rectum), age group (20-29, 30-39, and 40-49) and tumor size (T).

RESULTS

EO-CRC accounted for 5.1% (9529 cases) of all colorectal cancers in the selected German regions. The EO-CRC incidence rose annually by 1.16% (95% CI: [0.51; 1.81]) in men and 1.32% [0.80; 1.84] in women. The incidence of proximal colon cancer increased in both sexes (men: AAPC = 3.26 [2.00; 4.53]; women: AAPC = 2.99 [2.17; 3.83]), while the incidence of distal colon cancer remained unchanged.

CONCLUSION

The incidence of EO-CRC in Germany is rising. The reasons are probably multifactorial, reflecting the changing prevalence of early life exposure to risk and protective factors.

Changes in the probability of hysterectomy in the city of Mainz and Mainz-Bingen region, Germany

BACKGROUND

To assess the hysterectomy probability by calendar period and age, the overall and the age-specific prevalence of hysterectomy in women aged 30-65 years.

METHODS

Baseline data (2005-2007) from the population-based MARZY study conducted in Mainz and Mainz-Bingen, Germany, were analysed. 6429 women aged 30-65 years were asked whether they had undergone a hysterectomy and the date and indication of the procedure. We calculated the 5-year age-specific prevalence of hysterectomy and estimated the probability of undergoing a hysterectomy combining two approaches: 1) Kaplan-Meier and 2) Inverse probability weighting (IPW). We assessed potential changes over calendar periods by simulating survival curves, having hysterectomy as the event, employing a Cox proportional hazard model.

RESULTS

Data on hysterectomy were available for 4719 women. Of these, 961 (20.4%) had undergone a hysterectomy between 1960 and 2006. The hysterectomy prevalence was highest among the 60-64 year-olds (40.7%). The IPW-corrected probability of having a hysterectomy up to the age of 65 years was 36.4%. The age-specific probability of hysterectomy increased from 0.1% (20-24 years), peaking at 45-49 years (7.8%) and declining thereafter to less than 5% among women aged 50 and older. Over time, women were hysterectomised at an increasingly older age. Most hysterectomies (86.7%) were done due to benign disease.

CONCLUSIONS

A shift to older age at hysterectomy with an advancing calendar period likely reflects changes in clinical practice in Germany.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Landesärztekammer Rheinland-Pfalz: 837.438.03 (4100).

HPV vaccination leads to decrease of anogenital warts and precancerous lesions of the cervix uteri in young women with low vaccination rates: a retrospective cohort analysis

BACKGROUND

Although the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine has been recommended in Germany for girls since 2007, no organised vaccination programme was introduced and HPV vaccine coverage remains low. We investigated the HPV vaccination rates from 2008 to 2018 and the effects of HPV vaccination on anogenital warts and precancerous lesions in young women in Bavaria, Germany, a state with low vaccination rates.

METHODS

Retrospective analyses of claims data from the Bavarian Association of Statutory Health Insurance Physicians (KVB) on females born between 1990 and 2009 (9 to 28 years old in 2018) were conducted to calculate vaccination rates by birth cohort, proportion of vaccine types administered and incidence of anogenital warts and precancerous lesions of the cervix uteri. 942 841 Bavarian females 9 to 28 years old with available information on HPV vaccination were included to calculate vaccination rates. For the outcome analyses, data from 433 346 females 19 to 28 years old were analysed. Hazard ratios (HR) were computed from univariable and multivariable Cox regression models comparing vaccinated and unvaccinated women, considering type of vaccine used and contraceptive prescription.

RESULTS

40·9% of 18-year-olds and only 13·3% of 12-year-olds were fully vaccinated in 2018 in Bavaria. Gardasil® and Gardasil9® were most commonly administered. Vaccinated compared to unvaccinated women had a lower incidence of anogenital warts and cervical lesions, however only small differences were detected between fully and partially vaccinated women. Fully vaccinated women had a 63% (HR 0·37 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0·34 to 0·40) and 23% (HR 0·77, 95%CI 0·71 to 0·84) lower risk of anogenital warts and cervical lesions, respectively. Women who were prescribed contraceptives prior to vaccination had a 49% higher risk of developing anogenital warts (HR 1·49, 95%CI 1·25 to 1·79) or cervical lesions (HR 1·49, 95%CI 1·27 to 1·75) compared to vaccinated women without contraceptive prescription.

CONCLUSIONS

The evaluation of the effects of HPV vaccination in Bavaria showed a promising decline of anogenital warts and precancerous lesions in vaccinated young women. However, an increase in vaccination rates is necessary to achieve a greater population impact in preventing HPV-related diseases.

Colposcopy non-attendance following an abnormal cervical cancer screening result: a prospective population-based cohort study

Background

A considerable proportion of cervical cancer diagnoses in high-income countries are due to lack of timely follow-up of an abnormal screening result. We estimated colposcopy non-attendance, examined the potential factors associated and described non-attendance reasons in a population-based screening study.

Methods

Data from the MARZY prospective cohort study were analysed. Co-test screen-positive women (atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance or worse [ASC-US+] or high-risk human papillomavirus [hrHPV] positive) aged 30 to 65 years were referred to colposcopy within two screening rounds (3-year interval). Women were surveyed for sociodemographic, HPV-related and other data, and interviewed for non-attendance reasons. Logistic regression was used to examine potential associations with colposcopy attendance.

Results

At baseline, 2,627 women were screened (screen-positive = 8.7%), and 2,093 again at follow-up (screen-positive = 5.1%; median 2.7 years later). All screen-positives were referred to colposcopy, however 28.9% did not attend despite active recall. Among co-test positives (ASC-US+ and hrHPV) and only hrHPV positives, 19.6% were non-attendees. Half of only ASC-US+ screenees attended colposcopy. Middle age (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 1.55, 95% CI 1.02, 4.96) and hrHPV positive result (aOR = 3.04, 95% CI 1.49, 7.22) were associated with attendance. Non-attendance was associated with having ≥ 3 children (aOR = 0.32, 95% CI 0.10, 0.86). Major reasons for non-attendance were lack of time, barriers such as travel time, need for childcare arrangements and the advice against colposcopy given by the gynaecologist who conducted screening.

Conclusions

Follow-up rates of abnormal screening results needs improvement. A systematic recall system integrating enhanced communication and addressing follow-up barriers may improve screening effectiveness.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12905-022-01851-6.

Animal-Assisted Interventions Improve Mental, But Not Cognitive or Physiological Health Outcomes of Higher Education Students: a Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Due to the high burden of mental health issues among students at higher education institutions world-wide, animal-assisted interventions (AAIs) are being used to relieve student stress. The objective of this study was to systematically review of the effects of AAIs on the mental, physiological, and cognitive outcomes of higher education students. Randomized controlled trials using any unfamiliar animal as the sole intervention tool were included in this review. Study quality was assessed using the Cochrane Risk-of-Bias tool. Where possible, effect sizes (Hedges' g) were pooled for individual outcomes using random-effects meta-analyses. Albatross plots were used to supplement the data synthesis. Of 2.494 identified studies, 35 were included. Almost all studies used dogs as the intervention animal. The quality of most included studies was rated as moderate. Studies showed an overall reduction of acute anxiety and stress. For other mental outcomes, studies showed smaller, but nonetheless beneficial effects. Studies showed no clear effect on physiological or cognitive outcomes. Strong methodological heterogeneity between studies limited the ability to draw clear conclusions.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11469-022-00945-4.

mHealth-community health worker telemedicine intervention for surgical site infection diagnosis: a prospective study among women delivering via caesarean section in rural Rwanda

Background

Surgical site infections (SSIs) cause a significant global public health burden in low and middle-income countries. Most SSIs develop after patient discharge and may go undetected. We assessed the feasibility and diagnostic accuracy of an mHealth-community health worker (CHW) home-based telemedicine intervention to diagnose SSIs in women who delivered via caesarean section in rural Rwanda.

Methods

This prospective cohort study included women who underwent a caesarean section at Kirehe District Hospital between September 2019 and March 2020. At postoperative day 10 (±3 days), a trained CHW visited the woman at home, provided wound care and transmitted a photo of the wound to a remote general practitioner (GP) via WhatsApp. The GP reviewed the photo and made an SSI diagnosis. The next day, the woman returned to the hospital for physical examination by an independent GP, whose SSI diagnosis was considered the gold standard for our analysis. We describe the intervention process indicators and report the sensitivity and specificity of the telemedicine-based diagnosis.

Results

Of 787 women included in the study, 91.4% (n=719) were located at their home by the CHW and all of them (n=719, 100%) accepted the intervention. The full intervention was completed, including receipt of GP telemedicine diagnosis within 1 hour, for 79.0% (n=623). The GPs diagnosed 30 SSIs (4.2%) through telemedicine and 38 SSIs (5.4%) through physical examination. The telemedicine sensitivity was 36.8% and specificity was 97.6%. The negative predictive value was 96.4%.

Conclusions

Implementation of an mHealth-CHW home-based intervention in rural Rwanda and similar settings is feasible. Patients’ acceptance of the intervention was key to its success. The telemedicine-based SSI diagnosis had a high negative predictive value but a low sensitivity. Further studies must explore strategies to improve accuracy, such as accompanying wound images with clinical data or developing algorithms using machine learning.

Enablers and barriers to post-discharge follow-up among women who have undergone a caesarean section: experiences from a prospective cohort in rural Rwanda

Background

Caesarean sections account for roughly one third of all surgical procedures performed in low-income countries. Due to lack of standardised post-discharge follow-up protocols and practices, most of available data are extracted from clinical charts during hospitalization and are thus sub-optimal for answering post-discharge outcomes questions. This study aims to determine enablers and barriers to returning to the hospital after discharge among women who have undergone a c-section at a rural district hospital in Rwanda.

Methods

Women aged ≥ 18 years who underwent c-section at Kirehe District Hospital in rural Rwanda in the period March to October 2017 were prospectively followed. A structured questionnaire was administered to participants and clinical data were extracted from medical files between March and October 2017. At discharge, consenting women were given an appointment to return for follow-up on postoperative day 10 (POD 10) (± 3 days) and provided a voucher to cover transport and compensation for participation to be redeemed on their return. Study participants received a reminder call on the eve of their scheduled appointment. We used a backward stepwise logistic regression, at an α = 0.05 significance level, to identify enablers and barriers associated with post-discharge follow-up return.

Results

Of 586 study participants, the majority (62.6%) were between 21–30 years old and 86.4% had a phone contact number. Of those eligible, 90.4% returned for follow-up. The predictors of return were counselling by a female data collector (OR = 9.85, 95%CI:1.43–37.59) and receiving a reminder call (OR = 16.47, 95%CI:7.07–38.38). Having no insurance reduced the odds of returning to follow-up (OR = 0.03, 95%CI:0.03–0.23), and those who spent more than 10.6 Euro for transport to and from the hospital were less likely to return to follow-up (OR = 0.14, 95%CI:0.04- 0.50).

Conclusion

mHealh interventions using calls or notifications can increase the post-discharge follow-up uptake. The reminder calls to patients and discharge counselling by a gender-matching provider had a positive effect on return to care. Further interventions are needed targeting the uninsured and patients facing transportation hardship. Additionally, association between counselling of women patients by a female data collector and greater return to follow-up needs further exploration to optimize counselling procedures.

Supplementary information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12913-022-08137-5.

The Development and Inclusion of Questions on Surgery in the 2018 Zambia Demographic and Health Survey

Data from household surveys serve as the backbone to sustainable development planning. For the first time, questions on surgery have been included in a nationwide Demographic and Health Survey, showing that it is feasible to integrate these questions into a large-scale survey.

Background:

While primary data on the unmet need for surgery in low- and middle-income countries is lacking, household surveys could provide an entry point to collect such data. We describe the first development and inclusion of questions on surgery in a nationally representative Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) in Zambia.

Method:

Questions regarding surgical conditions were developed through an iterative consultative process and integrated into the rollout of the DHS survey in Zambia in 2018 and administered to a nationwide sample survey of eligible women aged 15–49 years and men aged 15–59 years.

Results:

In total, 7 questions covering 4 themes of service delivery, diagnosed burden of surgical disease, access to care, and quality of care were added. The questions were administered across 12,831 households (13,683 women aged 15–49 years and 12,132 men aged 15–59 years). Results showed that approximately 5% of women and 2% of men had undergone an operation in the past 5 years. Among women, cesarean delivery was the most common surgery; circumcision was the most common procedure among men. In the past 5 years, an estimated 0.61% of the population had been told by a health care worker that they might need surgery, and of this group, 35% had undergone the relevant procedure.

Conclusion:

For the first time, questions on surgery have been included in a nationwide DHS. We have shown that it is feasible to integrate these questions into a large-scale survey to provide insight into surgical needs at a national level. Based on the DHS design and implementation mechanisms, a country interested in including a set of questions like the one included in Zambia, could replicate this data collection in other settings, which provides an opportunity for systematic collection of comparable surgical data, a vital role in surgical health care system strengthening.

Increasing Participation Rates in Germany's Skin Cancer Screening Program (HELIOS): Protocol for a Mixed Methods Study

Background

In 2008, a nationwide skin cancer screening (SCS) program was implemented in Germany. However, participation rates remain low.

Objective

The overall objective of the HELIOS study is to identify subgroup-specific invitation and communication strategies to increase informed SCS participation in Germany.

Methods

Focus group discussions will be performed in Erlangen, Germany, to explore potential invitation and communication strategies as well as possible barriers and motivating factors to participate in SCS. Male and female patients of different age groups who have already been diagnosed with skin cancer, as well as participants without a prior diagnosis of skin cancer, will be invited. Based on these results, an online questionnaire will be developed to identify subgroup-specific invitation strategies. A random sample of 2500 persons from the general population aged >35 years from the Munich area will be contacted to complete the questionnaire. Besides descriptive analysis, multinomial logistic regression will be performed. Additionally, a cluster analysis will be conducted to discover patterns or similarities among the participants.

Results

Recruitment for the focus group studies started in February 2021 and is ongoing. As of August 2021, we have enrolled 39 participants. We expect to end enrollment in the qualitative study in September 2021 and to finish the analysis in December 2021. The second part of the study will then start in January 2022.

Conclusions

The results of this project will enable us to derive improved and more efficient invitation and communication strategies for SCS. These may be implemented in the future to facilitate increased SCS uptake and early skin cancer detection.

International Registered Report Identifier (IRRID)

DERR1-10.2196/31860

Incidence of smoking-related second primary cancers after lung cancer in Germany: an analysis of nationwide cancer registry data

INTRODUCTION

About 80% of lung cancer cases in Germany are attributable to smoking. Patients with a lung cancer diagnosis may remain at increased risk of developing smoking-related second primary cancers (SPC).

METHODS

Anonymous data from 11 population-based cancer registries covering about 50% of the German population were pooled for the analysis. Included patients were diagnosed with an index lung cancer between 2002 and 2013, 30 to 99 years old at diagnosis and survived for at least 6 months. We calculated standardized incidence ratios (SIR) - stratified by age, sex, region and period - comparing the incidence of smoking-related and other SPC to the general population.

RESULTS

Of the 135,589 lung cancer survivors (68.2% male; mean follow-up 30.8 months) analyzed, 5,298 developed an SPC. In males the risk was particularly high for SPCs of the larynx (SIR = 3.70; 95% CI: 3.14-4.34), pharynx (3.17; 2.61-3.81) and oral cavity (2.86; 2.38-3.41). For females SIRs were notably elevated for esophagus (4.66; 3.15-6.66), oral cavity (3.14; 2.03-4.63) and urinary tract (2.68; 2.04-3.45). When combining all smoking-related cancer sites, SIR was 1.41 in males (95% CI: 1.36-1.47) and 1.81 in females (95% CI: 1.68-1.94). We observed that males had a 1.46-fold (95% CI: 1.37-1.56) and females a 1.33-fold (95% CI: 1.20-1.47) increased risk for smoking-related compared to other cancers.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with primary lung cancer were at increased risk for developing a smoking-related SPC. Therefore, the advantages of increased patient surveillance and the benefits of smoking cessation strategies should be considered.

Access to paediatric surgery: the geography of inequality in Nigeria

Background

About 96.3 million children and adolescents aged 0–19 years reside in Nigeria, comprising 54% of the population. Without adequate access to surgery for commonly treatable diseases, many face disability and increased risk of mortality. Due to this population’s unique perioperative needs, increasing access to paediatric surgical care requires a situational evaluation of the distribution of paediatric surgeons and anaesthesiologists. This study’s aim is to identify the percentage of Nigerian youth who reside within 2 hours of paediatric surgical care at the state and national level.

Methods

The Association of Paediatric Surgeons of Nigeria and the Nigeria Society of Anaesthetists provided surgical and anaesthesia workforce data by state. Health facilities with paediatric surgeons were converted to point locations and integrated with ancillary geospatial layers and population estimates from 2016 and 2017. Catchment areas of 2 hours of travel time around a facility were deployed as the benchmark indicator to establish timely access.

Results

Across Nigeria’s 36 states and Federal Capital Territory, the percentage of Nigeria’s 0–19 population residing within 2 hours of a health facility with a paediatric surgical and anaesthesia workforce ranges from less than 2% to 22.7%–30.5%. In 3 states, only 2.1%–4.8% of the population can access a facility within 2 hours, 12 have 4.9%–13.8%, and 8 have 13.9%–22.6%.

Conclusion

There is significant variation across Nigerian states regarding access to surgical care, with 69.5%–98% of Nigeria’s 0–19 population lacking access. Developing paediatric surgical services in underserved Nigerian states and investing in the training of paediatric surgical and anaesthesia workforce for those states are key components in improving the health of Nigeria’s 0–19 population and reducing Nigeria’s burden of surgical disease, in line with Nigeria’s National Surgical, Obstetrics, Anaesthesia and Nursing Plan.

The Clinical Complexity of Penile Cancer: Current Clinical-Epidemiological Data from the Database of the Free State of Saxony/Germany

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to assess penile cancer incidence, clinical characteristics, treatment options, transparency of clinical quality, and relative survival based on data from the clinical cancer registry.

SUBJECTS AND METHODS

A total of 898 patients with tumours of the penis were diagnosed and analysed in the period from 2000 to 2018; they were documented in the 4 regional clinical cancer registries and summarized in the Command Office of these 4 registries.

RESULTS

The standardized incidence rate increased from 0.86 in 2000 to 2.67 in 2018. Most tumours were located at the glans (42.9%) followed by the prepuce (19.5%) and corpus penis (6.9%); they were classified into pT1a/pT1b (20.0%/7.0%), pT2 (23.5%), pT3 (12.4%), and pT4 (0.8%). In only 32.0% of all documented cases, a stage-related lymphadenectomy (LND) was carried out. Negative surgical margins were found in only 70% and the Rx status in 15.1%. Primary metastasis was detected in pN1 (5.1%), pN2 (3.9%), pN3 (3.1%), and M1 status in 3.0%, respectively. The predominant therapy was surgery in 78.3%. The proportion of penile partial resections was significantly (p = 0.0045) regredient over the control period. Adjuvant chemotherapy was performed in 4.7%, adjuvant external-beam radiotherapy in 3.0%. The 5-year relative overall survival rate was 74.7% and ranged from 108.0% (stage 0) to 17.1% (stage IV). A total of 29 hospitals performed tumour operations.

CONCLUSIONS

The multitude of clinical and epidemiological variables available in clinical cancer registries allows a safe assessment of tumour dynamics themselves, as well as good quality of transparency and broadly acceptable guideline adherence. Deviations from the accepted level of evidence were found in the grading definition, in the high quota of positive surgical margins, in the defensive indication position to the glans resurfacing/reconstruction and diagnostical LND. Based on these relevant findings in the database combined with the low frequency of the tumour in area/clinics/year, we recommended establishing SCCP reference clinics. This work is the first time that European standardized rate-based cancer registry data on penile cancer from Germany has been communicated.

976Screening for cervical cancer with Human Papillomavirus testing: stand-alone is preferable over co-testing with cytology

Background

Cervical cancer screening can be conducted with cytology and Human Papillomavirus (HPV) testing but few studies have compared the latter directly to concomitant testing (co-testing). We compared these strategies to determine appropriate screening.

Methods

Within a randomised population-based cohort study conducted around Mainz, Germany, eligible women (≥30 years) were screened via Pap smear, liquid-based cytology (LBC) and HPV testing (HC2) and HPV genotyped post hoc (PCR). These tests formed three strategies: cytology (Pap or LBC) and HPV (HC2 or PCR) stand-alone and co-testing. Screen positives and 5% negative women were invited to colposcopy. Absolute and relative sensitivity, specificity, false positive rates (FPR) and number needed to colposcopy to detect one lesion (NNC) were calculated. Estimates were crude and verification bias-adjusted using stratified sampling with bootstrapped confidence intervals.

Results

Of 2,627 screened women, cytology stand-alone demonstrated lowest sensitivities (47%) and highest specificities (97%-99%) while HPV stand-alone demonstrated higher sensitivities (79%-95%) but lower specificities (94%-95%). Co-testing increased sensitivity (84%-99%) but not specificity (92%-95%). Relative sensitivities were similar between crude and adjusted estimates, with greater detection via HPV-based strategies. Specificity of co-testing with LBC relative to HPV stand-alone was near unity (0.99, 95% CI 0.99-1.00) but significantly lower than unity with Pap co-testing. FPR and NNC were greatest under co-testing.

Conclusions

HPV stand-alone screening in women over 30 years appears appropriate over co-testing as a screening strategy.

Key messages

Co-testing for cervical cancer does not appear to add any benefit in detection and may introduce unnecessary harms compared to HPV stand-alone screening.

239Incidence and potential risk factors of a second primary cancer among 217,702 colorectal cancer survivors

Background

Survival of colorectal cancer (CRC) has improved markedly but risk of an independent second primary cancer (SPC) increases. We determined incidence and potential risk factors of SPC following CRC.

Methods

We obtained data from 217,202 CRC cases (ICD-10 C18-C20, aged ≥20 years) diagnosed between 1990-2013 from the German Centre for Cancer Registry Data. Cancers arising in a distinct site (excluding non-melanoma skin cancer) and/or of a different histology group were classified as SPCs. Standardised incidence ratios (SIR) and 95% confidence intervals compared the excess risk to the general population, stratified by age, sex and CRC sub-site. Cox proportional hazards models identified potential risk factors of SPC.

Results

Following CRC (median age 70 years), 18,751 SPCs occurred (8.63%; median age 69 years). SPC incidence increased by 36% in males (SIR: 1.36 [1.34-1.38]), 46% in females (SIR: 1.46 [1.43-1.49]) and doubled for cases &lt;65 years (SIR: 2.08 [1.99-2.17]). Common SPC sites following colon cancer included the small intestine, stomach, liver, pancreas, bladder and kidney. Common male-specific sites included prostate and in females: breast, uterus and ovary. Similar sites were observed following rectal cancer, particularly in cases &lt;65 years. Age, male sex and tumour size (T1, T2) were potential risk factors of SPC. Therapy of CRC (including radiotherapy) did not demonstrate an elevated risk.

Conclusions

CRC survivors have an increased risk of SPC, particularly due to age, sex and tumour size.

Key messages

Colorectal cancer survivors have an increased risk of a SPC. Age, sex and tumour size are associated risk factors.

Impact of opportunistic screening on squamous cell and adenocarcinoma of the cervix in Germany: A population-based case-control study

Background

We investigated the uptake of opportunistic cervical cancer screening (CCS) and other risk factors and their association with cervical cancer in Germany in a case-control study.

Methods and findings

We recruited incident cases of cervical cancer (ICD-10 C53) diagnosed between 2012 and 2016 and matched with three population-based controls, based on age and region of residence. Cases and controls reported their CCS participation during the past ten years (frequent: every three years; no or infrequent: less than every three years) and other relevant variables. We fitted conditional logistic regression models, reporting odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). We report overall and stratified analyses by histologic group (squamous cell–SCC, and adenocarcinoma–AC), T category (T1 and T2+), and age (<50 and ≥50 years). We analysed 217 cases and 652 matched controls. 53.0% of cases and 85.7% of controls attended CCS frequently. In the overall adjusted model, no or infrequent participation in CCS (OR 5.63; 95% CI 3.51 to 9.04), having had more than one sexual partner (OR 2.86; 95%CI 1.50 to 5.45) and obesity (OR 1.69; 95% CI 1.01 to 2.83) were associated with cervical cancer. Twelve years of schooling (OR 0.37; 95% CI 0.23 to 0.60) and a net monthly income of €3000 or more (OR 0.50; 95% CI 0.30 to 0.82) were protective factors. In the stratified analyses, no or infrequent participation was associated with T1 (OR 4.37; 95% CI 2.48 to 7.71), T2+ (OR 10.67; 95% CI 3.83 to 29.74), SCC (OR 6.88; 95% CI 4.08 to 11.59) and AC (OR 3.95; 95% CI 1.47 to 10.63).

Conclusion

Although women who frequently attended CCS were less likely to develop cervical cancer, especially larger tumours, the high proportion of cases who had been frequently screened prior to diagnosis underscores the need to investigate the quality of cytology and treatment of precancerous lesions in Germany.

[HPV vaccination and the prevention of genital warts and precancerous lesions-current evidence and evaluation]

Human papillomaviruses (HPVs) can cause both benign and malignant tumors. To date, more than 200 HPV types have been discovered, of which 12 are currently classified as high risk for cervical cancer. HPV types that affect the anogenital tract are sexually transmitted. Since 2006, prophylactic HPV vaccines have been available and should be administered before first sexual contact.HPVs infect epithelial cells and are worldwide the most common sexually transmitted viruses. Apart from cervical cancer, HPVs cause other anogenital cancers such as vulvar, vaginal, and anal cancer but also oropharyngeal cancer (or head and neck cancers). HPV types 16 and 18 are also found at these sites. HPV types 6 and 11 are associated with genital warts; other HPV types can cause harmless skin warts.HPV vaccines are safe and highly effective, if they are administered before exposure to HPV. Systematic reviews and meta-analyses have shown that HPV vaccination effectively prevents HPV infection, but also precancerous lesions of the anogenital tract and genital warts. Recent vaccination data also demonstrate reductions in cervical cancer incidence.The uptake rates of HPV vaccination vary worldwide by program and acceptance. In comparison to other European countries, Germany has a low uptake rate. The Standing Committee on Vaccination (STIKO) recommends HPV vaccinations for all girls and boys ages 9 to 14 years in Germany. In 2018, only half of all 18-year-old girls in Germany were completely immunized against HPV.Organized vaccination programs, whether population-based or school-based, are necessary in order to increase vaccination uptake rates.

Estimates of the global burden of cervical cancer associated with HIV

Background

HIV enhances human papillomavirus (HPV)-induced carcinogenesis. However, the contribution of HIV to cervical cancer burden at a population level has not been quantified. We aimed to investigate cervical cancer risk among women living with HIV and to estimate the global cervical cancer burden associated with HIV.

Methods

We did a systematic literature search and meta-analysis of five databases (PubMed, Embase, Global Health [CABI.org], Web of Science, and Global Index Medicus) to identify studies analysing the association between HIV infection and cervical cancer. We estimated the pooled risk of cervical cancer among women living with HIV across four continents (Africa, Asia, Europe, and North America). The risk ratio (RR) was combined with country-specific UNAIDS estimates of HIV prevalence and GLOBOCAN 2018 estimates of cervical cancer to calculate the proportion of women living with HIV among women with cervical cancer and population attributable fractions and age-standardised incidence rates (ASIRs) of HIV-attributable cervical cancer.

Findings

24 studies met our inclusion criteria, which included 236 127 women living with HIV. The pooled risk of cervical cancer was increased in women living with HIV (RR 6·07, 95% CI 4·40–8·37). Globally, 5·8% (95% CI 4·6–7·3) of new cervical cancer cases in 2018 (33 000 new cases, 95% CI 26 000–42 000) were diagnosed in women living with HIV and 4·9% (95% CI 3·6–6·4) were attributable to HIV infection (28 000 new cases, 20 000–36 000). The most affected regions were southern Africa and eastern Africa. In southern Africa, 63·8% (95% CI 58·9–68·1) of women with cervical cancer (9200 new cases, 95% CI 8500–9800) were living with HIV, as were 27·4% (23·7–31·7) of women in eastern Africa (14 000 new cases, 12 000–17 000). ASIRs of HIV-attributable cervical cancer were more than 20 per 100 000 in six countries, all in southern Africa and eastern Africa.

Interpretation

Women living with HIV have a significantly increased risk of cervical cancer. HPV vaccination and cervical cancer screening for women living with HIV are especially important for countries in southern Africa and eastern Africa, where a substantial HIV-attributable cervical cancer burden has added to the existing cervical cancer burden.

Funding

WHO, US Agency for International Development, and US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief.

Cervical Cancer Screening: Comparison of Conventional Pap Smear Test, Liquid-Based Cytology, and Human Papillomavirus Testing as Stand-alone or Cotesting Strategies

BACKGROUND

Some countries have implemented stand-alone human papillomavirus (HPV) testing while others consider cotesting for cervical cancer screening. We compared both strategies within a population-based study.

METHODS

The MARZY cohort study was conducted in Germany. Randomly selected women from population registries aged ≥30 years (n = 5,275) were invited to screening with Pap smear, liquid-based cytology (LBC, ThinPrep), and HPV testing (Hybrid Capture2, HC2). Screen-positive participants [ASC-US+ or high-risk HC2 (hrHC2)] and a random 5% sample of screen-negatives were referred to colposcopy. Post hoc HPV genotyping was conducted by GP5+/6+ PCR-EIA with reverse line blotting. Sensitivity, specificity (adjusted for verification bias), and potential harms, including number of colposcopies needed to detect 1 precancerous lesion (NNC), were calculated.

RESULTS

In 2,627 screened women, cytological sensitivities (Pap, LBC: 47%) were lower than HC2 (95%) and PCR (79%) for CIN2+. Cotesting demonstrated higher sensitivities (HC2 cotesting: 99%; PCR cotesting: 84%), but at the cost of lower specificities (92%-95%) compared with HPV stand-alone (HC2: 95%; PCR: 94%) and cytology (97% or 99%). Cotesting versus HPV stand-alone showed equivalent relative sensitivity [HC2: 1.06, 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.00-1.21; PCR: 1.07, 95% CI, 1.00-1.27]. Relative specificity of Pap cotesting with either HPV test was inferior to stand-alone HPV. LBC cotesting demonstrated equivalent specificity (both tests: 0.99, 95% CI, 0.99-1.00). NNC was highest for Pap cotesting.

CONCLUSIONS

Cotesting offers no benefit in detection over stand-alone HPV testing, resulting in more false positive results and colposcopy referrals.

IMPACT

HPV stand-alone screening offers a better balance of benefits and harms than cotesting.See related commentary by Wentzensen and Clarke, p. 432.

Prevalence of a First-Degree Relative With Colorectal Cancer and Uptake of Screening Among Persons 40 to 54 Years Old

BACKGROUND & AIMS

People with a first-degree relative with colorectal cancer (CRC) are recommended to start CRC screening at age 40. However, there is limited information on how many people in different age groups have a known family history of CRC and how many of them have had a colonoscopy.

METHODS

We set up a multicenter, cross-sectional, population-based study in Germany to determine what proportions of persons in age groups from 40 to 54 years old have a known family history of CRC. We invited 160,000 persons to participate in an online survey from 2015 through 2016. We investigated what proportions of persons in each age group reported a family history of CRC and what proportions of persons underwent a colonoscopy examination using descriptive statistics and multiple logistic regression models.

RESULTS

Of 28,711 responders to the online questionnaire (8428 were age 40-44 years, 9879 were age 45-49 years, and 10,404 were age 50-54 years), 2705 stated that they had a first-degree relative with CRC (9.4%). The prevalence of a first-degree relative with CRC increased with age: 7.5%, 9.6%, and 10.9% for people 40 to 44 years old, 45 to 49 years old, and 50 to 54 years old, respectively. The prevalence of a first-degree relative who received a diagnosis of CRC at age 70 years or older increased steadily with each age group. Although a greater proportion of people with a family history of CRC had undergone a colonoscopy examination (54.5%) than people without a family history of CRC (25.7%; P < .0001), large proportions of people within this risk group were not in compliance with the guidelines (54.8%, 47.6%, and 38.6% for ages 40-44 y, 45-49 y, and 50-54 y, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

One in 10 persons in Germany age 40 to 54 years old has a first-degree relative with CRC. Guidelines recommend initiation of screening at ages 40 to 45 years for people with a family history, yet at this age many people do not have a family history of CRC yet, and almost half of persons 40 to 54 years old with a family history of CRC have not yet received a screening colonoscopy.

Increasing Influenza Vaccination Rates in People With Chronic Illness

BACKGROUND

The safety and efficacy of influenza vaccination for the chronically ill are clearly supported by the evidence, yet vaccination rates in this vulnerable popu- lation remain low. This leads to many avoidable hospitalizations and deaths in Germany every year. The goal of this systematic review is to identify measures in primary care medicine that can be used to increase influenza vaccination rates among the chronically ill.

METHODS

This review was carried out as recommended in the PRISMA statement. A systematic literature search was performed. Only randomized, controlled trials were included in the analysis. Details can be found in the study protocol (PROSPERO, CRD42018114163).

RESULTS

15 trials were included in the analysis. Training sessions for medical practice teams focusing on a particular disease raised the vaccination rates by as much as 22%. A financial incentive had the greatest effect (relative risk [RR]: 2.79; 95% confidence interval: [1.18; 6.62]). Reminders via text message yielded a maximum 3.8% absolute increase in vaccination rates. Complex interventions were not found to be of any greater benefit than simple ones.

CONCLUSION

A variety of approaches can be effective. Focusing training sessions for medical practice teams on certain diseases may be of greater benefit than vacci- nation-centered training sessions. Reminder systems for doctors should be more reliably implemented. Simple strategies are perhaps the most suitable ones in the heterogeneous population of chronically ill persons. The limitations of this system- atic review include the heterogeneity of the studies that we examined and the small number of studies in each category.

Association of endothelial dysfunction with incident prediabetes, type 2 diabetes and related traits: the KORA F4/FF4 study

INTRODUCTION

Peripheral arterial tonometry (PAT) is an operator-independent and non-invasive measurement method to assess microvascular endothelial function in the fingertips. PAT-derived measures of endothelial function were associated with type 2 diabetes in cross-sectional studies. However, longitudinal studies are lacking. The study aims to investigate the association of two PAT-derived endothelial function parameters reactive hyperemia index (RHI) and mean baseline amplitude (MBA) with follow-up glucose and insulin parameters and the development of (pre)diabetes and type 2 diabetes.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

The study included 673 participants initially without diabetes (328 men and 345 women) aged 52-71 years from the prospective population-based Cooperative Health Research in the Region of Augsburg F4/FF4 cohort study conducted in Southern Germany (baseline examination F4: 2006-2008; follow-up FF4: 2013-2014). An oral glucose tolerance test was performed at baseline and follow-up to define type 2 diabetes, prediabetes, fasting glucose, fasting insulin, 2-hour glucose, homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), homeostasis model assessment of beta-cell function and hemoglobin A1c.

RESULTS

In multivariable adjusted logistic/linear regression models, a 1 SD increase in baseline RHI was inversely associated with incident type 2 diabetes (OR 0.69 (95% CI 0.48 to 0.97)) as well as with fasting insulin (β -0.069 (95% CI -0.131 to -0.007)) and HOMA-IR (β -0.072 (95% CI -0.133 to -0.010)) at follow-up in participants with initial normoglycemia. A 1 SD increase in baseline MBA was positively associated with incident (pre)diabetes (OR 1.62 (95% CI 1.25 to 2.11)) and fasting glucose (β 0.096 (95% CI 0.047 to 0.146)) at follow-up in participants with initial normoglycemia.

CONCLUSIONS

Microvascular endothelial dysfunction seems to be involved in the development of early derangements in glucose metabolism and insulin resistance and could thereby trigger the development of prediabetes and type 2 diabetes.

Evaluation of the methodological quality of articles on autologous breast reconstruction

BACKGROUND

Breast cancer remains the most common cancer among women worldwide. Autologous breast reconstruction may contribute toward restoring body image and improving quality of life after mastectomy. This systematic literature review describes differences in the quality and type of studies investigating autologous breast reconstruction techniques over time.

METHODS

MEDLINE was searched for articles related to the surgical techniques, namely, TRAM, LADO, DIEP, and SGAP/IGAP, for the periods 1970 to 2007 and 2008 to 2010. The quality and type of studies were compared across the two time periods. Full-texts were evaluated according to prespecified quality criteria.

RESULTS

The MEDLINE searches yielded 1,057 articles for review; of them, 517 articles were excluded, and 314 had a completed quality criteria checklist and hence were included; of these 314 articles, 206 articles investigated TRAM flaps, 85 investigated LADO flaps, 74 investigated DIEP flaps, and 6 investigated SGAP/IGAP flaps. A total of 218 articles were published between 1970 and 2007 compared to 96 articles published between 2008 and 2010. The comparison of quality scores between the two time periods showed a shift toward higher scores in the period 2008 to 2010. The DIEP technique was investigated more frequently between 2008 and 2010 than between 1970 and 2007, whereas the percentage of articles focusing on the TRAM flap decreased. The percentage of articles investigating the LADO and SGAP/IGAP techniques remained constant across the time periods.

CONCLUSIONS

Results relating to the methodological quality of articles on breast reconstruction with autologous tissue show that the quality of publications has improved with time, whereas research interests concerning the type of surgical technique investigated have changed in focus.

Geospatial mapping of access to timely essential surgery in sub-Saharan Africa

INTRODUCTION

Despite an estimated one-third of the global burden of disease being surgical, only limited estimates of accessibility to surgical treatment in sub-Saharan Africa exist and these remain spatially undefined. Geographical metrics of access to major hospitals were estimated based on travel time. Estimates were then used to assess need for surgery at country level.

METHODS

Major district and regional hospitals were assumed to have capability to perform bellwether procedures. Geographical locations of hospitals in relation to the population in the 47 sub-Saharan countries were combined with spatial ancillary data on roads, elevation, land use or land cover to estimate travel-time metrics of 30 min, 1 hour and 2 hours. Hospital catchment was defined as population residing in areas less than 2 hours of travel time to the next major hospital. Travel-time metrics were combined with fine-scale population maps to define burden of surgery at hospital catchment level.

RESULTS

Overall, the majority of the population (92.5%) in sub-Saharan Africa reside in areas within 2 hours of a major hospital catchment defined based on spatially defined travel times. The burden of surgery in all-age population was 257.8 million to 294.7 million people and was highest in high-population density countries and lowest in sparsely populated or smaller countries. The estimated burden in children <15 years was 115.3 million to 131.8 million and had similar spatial distribution to the all-age pattern.

CONCLUSION

The study provides an assessment of accessibility and burden of surgical disease in sub-Saharan Africa. Yet given the optimistic assumption of adequare surgical capability of major hospitals, the true burden of surgical disease is expected to be much greater. In-depth health facility assessments are needed to define infrastructure, personnel and medicine supply for delivering timely and safe affordable surgery to further inform the analysis.

Efficacy, effectiveness and safety of vaccination against human papillomavirus in males: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination is safe and effective in preventing cervical cancer in females. As HPV infections can also induce cancers of the anus, penis and oral cavity, male vaccination is also advocated, but systematic reviews on efficacy and safety in males are lacking.

METHODS

We performed a systematic review on the efficacy, effectiveness and safety of HPV vaccination in males of any age. MEDLINE, Embase, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials and ClinicalTrials.gov were searched from inception to April 2017.

RESULTS

We identified 5196 articles and seven studies (four randomized controlled trials (RCTs), three non-randomized studies) were included, comprising a total of 5294 participants. Vaccine efficacy against at least 6-month persisting anogenital HPV 16 infections was 46.9% (95% confidence interval (CI) 28.6-60.8%), whereas efficacy against persisting oral infections was 88% (2-98%). A vaccine efficacy of 61.9% (21.4-82.8%) and 46.8% (- 20 to -77.9%) was observed against anal intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 and grade 3 lesions, respectively. No meaningful estimates were available on vaccine efficacy or effectiveness against penile intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or 3, and no data were identified for anal, penile or head and neck squamous cell cancer. In participants who were HPV-seronegative and PCR-negative at enrolment, efficacy against all outcomes was higher as compared to seropositive and/or PCR-positive individuals. Risk of bias was low in three RCTs and high in one, while the three non-randomized studies were at serious to critical risk of bias. Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation evidence quality was moderate to low for most outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

HPV vaccination in males is moderately effective against persistent anogenital HPV infection and high-grade anal intraepithelial lesions in studies where the population consists mainly of HPV-infected males. Vaccine effectiveness was high in study groups comprising HPV-naïve males. This supports a recommendation for vaccination of boys before the onset of sexual activity with the goal of establishing optimal vaccine-induced protection. Mathematical modelling studies will still be needed to assess the effects of adding males to existing HPV vaccination programs in females.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Prospective Register for Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO) registration CRD42016038965 .

Study protocol of the RaPS study: novel risk adapted prevention strategies for people with a family history of colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND

People aged 40-60 years with a family history (FH) of colorectal cancer (CRC) in 1st degree relatives (FDRs) have a 2- to 4-fold increased risk of CRC compared to the average risk population. Therefore, experts recommend starting CRC screening earlier for this high-risk group. However, information on prevalence of relevant colonoscopic findings in this group is sparse, and no risk adapted screening offers are implemented in the German health care system. For example, screening colonoscopy is uniformly offered from age 55 on, regardless of family history. Thus, we initiated a multicenter epidemiological study - the RaPS study (Risk adapted prevention strategies for colorectal cancer) - with the following aims: to determine the prevalence of having a FH of CRC in FDR in the German population aged 40-54 years; to investigate the prevalence of colorectal neoplasms among people with a FDR; and to develop risk-adapted prevention strategies for this high-risk group based on the collected information.

METHODS/DESIGN

A random sample of 160.000 persons from the general population aged 40-54 years from the catchment areas of three study centers in Germany (Dresden, Munich and Stuttgart) are contacted to assess FH of CRC by an online-questionnaire. Those with a FH of CRC in FDRs are invited to the study centers for individual consultation regarding CRC prevention. Participants are asked to donate blood and stool samples and medical records of colonoscopies will be obtained. Prevalence of CRC and its precursors will be evaluated. Furthermore, genetic, epigenetic and proteomic biomarkers in blood and microbiomic biomarkers in stool will be investigated. Risk markers and their eligibility for risk adapted screening offers will be examined.

DISCUSSION

This study will provide data on the prevalence of colorectal neoplasms among persons with a FH of CRC in the age group 40-54 years, which will enable us to derive evidence based screening strategies for this high-risk group.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

This trial was registered retrospectively in the German Clinical Trials Register (DRKS) on 29th of December 2016: German Clinical Trials Register DRKS-ID: DRKS00007842 .

Cancer incidence in Germany attributable to human papillomavirus in 2013

BACKGROUND

It is estimated that a total of 120,000 new cancer cases in men and in women in more developed countries could be avoided if exposure to HPV was prevented. We used the nationwide pool of German population-based cancer registry data to estimate the burden of HPV-attributable cancer in this population for the year 2013.

METHODS

Incident cases of cervical cancer, squamous cell carcinoma of the anus, oropharynx (OP), as well as of the vulva, vagina and penis were classified as potentially HPV-associated and identified from the nationwide cancer registry data-pool. We calculated the incidence and proportions of cancer with potentially HPV-associated morphologies. Estimation of the HPV-attributable incidence was based on prevalence-estimates of viral DNA in tumor cells in the respective sites, as provided from the international literature.

RESULTS

From the overall 15,936 incident cases of anogenital and OP cancers in 2013, 6239 female and 1358 male cancer cases were estimated to be attributable to HPV. The majority of HPV-attributable cases were contributed by cervical cancer (70.9% of female cancers) and oropharyngeal cancer (46.9% of male cancers).

CONCLUSIONS

Even if most HPV-attributable cases were contributed by cervical cancer, anogenital cancer at sites other than the cervix, and oropharyngeal cancer substantially contribute to the burden of HPV-associated cancer. Our nationwide cancer registry data-analyses provide the baseline for long-term population-based monitoring of vaccination-effects on cancer incidence in Germany.

The cost-effectiveness of interventions targeting lifestyle change for the prevention of diabetes in a Swedish primary care and community based prevention program

BACKGROUND

Policymakers need to know the cost-effectiveness of interventions to prevent type 2 diabetes (T2D). The objective of this study was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of a T2D prevention initiative targeting weight reduction, increased physical activity and healthier diet in persons in pre-diabetic states by comparing a hypothetical intervention versus no intervention in a Swedish setting.

METHODS

A Markov model was used to study the cost-effectiveness of a T2D prevention program based on lifestyle change versus a control group where no prevention was applied. Analyses were done deterministically and probabilistically based on Monte Carlo simulation for six different scenarios defined by sex and age groups (30, 50, 70 years). Cost and quality adjusted life year (QALY) differences between no intervention and intervention and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were estimated and visualized in cost-effectiveness planes (CE planes) and cost-effectiveness acceptability curves (CEA curves).

RESULTS

All ICERs were cost-effective and ranged from 3833 €/QALY gained (women, 30 years) to 9215 €/QALY gained (men, 70 years). The CEA curves showed that the probability of the intervention being cost-effective at the threshold value of 50,000 € per QALY gained was very high for all scenarios ranging from 85.0 to 91.1%.

DISCUSSION/CONCLUSION

The prevention or the delay of the onset of T2D is feasible and cost-effective. A small investment in healthy lifestyle with change in physical activity and diet together with weight loss are very likely to be cost-effective.