Incidence trend of type 2 diabetes from 2012 to 2021 in Germany: an analysis of health claims data of 11 million statutorily insured people

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

The aim of the study is to describe the time trend of type 2 diabetes incidence in the largest state of Germany, Bavaria, from 2012 to 2021, and to compare the incidence rates during the pandemic period (2020-2021) to the pre-pandemic period (2012-2019).

METHODS

This secondary data analysis uses health claims data provided by the Bavarian Association of Statutory Health Insurance Physicians (KVB), covering approximately 11 million insurees, accounting for 85% of the total population of Bavaria, Germany. Newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes cases in adults (≥20 years) coded as E11 (Diabetes mellitus, Type 2) or E14 (Unspecified diabetes mellitus) under ICD-10, German modification (ICD-10-GM) for the study period 2012 to 2021 were included. Annual and quarterly age-standardised incidence rates (ASIR) stratified by sex, age and region were calculated using the European standard population. Sex-specific crude incidence rates (CIR) were calculated using 10-year age groups. Regression analyses adjusted for time trends, seasonal effects, and pandemic effects were used to analyse the incidence trend and to assess the effect of the pandemic.

RESULTS

Overall, 745,861 new cases of type 2 diabetes were diagnosed between 2012 and 2021: 50.4% (376,193 cases) in women. The male/female ratio remained stable over the observation period, while the median age at diagnosis decreased from 61 to 58 years in men and from 66 years to 61 years in women. ASIR were consistently higher for men compared with women, with the yearly difference remaining stable over time (2012: 18%; 2021: 20%). An overall decreasing trend in ASIR was observed during the study period, with a strong decrease from 2012 to 2017, followed by a less pronounced decline from 2018 to 2021 for both sexes. For men, ASIR decreased from 1514 per 100,000 person-years in 2012 to 995 per 100,000 person-years in 2021 (4.6% average annual reduction), and for women from 1238 per 100,000 person-years in 2012 to 796 per 100,000 person-years in 2021 (4.8% average annual reduction). This downward trend was also observed for age groups above 50 years. Regression analyses showed no significant change in incidence rates during the pandemic period (2020 and 2021) compared with the pre-pandemic period.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

For the first time, a 10-year incidence trend of type 2 diabetes is reported for Germany, showing a strong decline from 2012 to 2017, followed by a less pronounced decline from 2018 to 2021. The incidence trend of type 2 diabetes appears not to have been affected by the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite an overall increasing prevalence, the incidence is decreasing, potentially resulting from robust screening by family physicians, reducing the median age at diagnosis by 3 to 5 years. However, further investigation is needed to fully identify the reasons for the declining incidence trend. Continued incidence monitoring is necessary to identify the long-term trend and the potential effect of the pandemic on diagnoses of type 2 diabetes.

Histology-specific standardized incidence ratio improves the estimation of second primary lung cancer risk

BACKGROUND

Lung cancer (LC) survivors are at increased risk for developing a second primary cancer (SPC) compared to the general population. While this risk is particularly high for smoking-related SPCs, the published standardized incidence ratio (SIR) for lung cancer after lung cancer is unexpectedly low in countries that follow international multiple primary (IARC/IACR MP) rules when compared to the USA, where distinct rules are employed. IARC/IACR rules rely on histology-dependent documentation of SPC with the same location as the first cancer and only classify an SPC when tumors present different histology. Thus, SIR might be underestimated in cancer registries using these rules. This study aims to assess whether using histology-specific reference rates for calculating SIR improves risk estimates for second primary lung cancer (SPLC) in LC survivors.

METHODS

We (i) use the distribution of histologic subtypes of LC in population-based cancer registry data of 11 regional cancer registries from Germany to present evidence that the conventional SIR metric underestimates the actual risk for SPLC in LC survivors in registries that use IARC/IACR MP rules, (ii) present updated risk estimates for SPLC in Germany using a novel method to calculate histological subtype-specific SIRs, and (iii) validate this new method using US SEER (Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program) data, where different MP rules are applied.

RESULTS

The adjusted relative risk for lung cancer survivors in Germany to develop an SPLC was 2.98 (95% CI 2.53-3.49) for females and 1.15 (95% CI 1.03-1.27) for males using the novel histology-specific SIR. When using IARC/IACR MP rules, the conventional SIR underestimates the actual risk for SPLC in LC survivors by approximately 30% for both sexes.

CONCLUSIONS

Our proposed histology-specific method makes the SIR metric more robust against MP rules and, thus, more suitable for cross-country comparisons.

An audit of 1632 routinely collected cervical cancer screening smears from 398 women in Germany: Results from the TeQaZ Study

OBJECTIVE

There is evidence in Germany that half of the cervical cancer (CC) cases had undergone screening frequently in the decade preceding their diagnosis, signaling cytology quality issues. This study investigates routine smear assessment accuracy in Germany.

METHODS

Within a population-based case-control study in 9 German states, we recruited cases (women with a histologically confirmed diagnosis of CC) and population controls (women with no history of CC or hysterectomy). Two independent expert cytologists audited Pap smears taken within the 10 years preceding CC diagnosis (cases)/study entry (controls). We report the prevalence of positive results, as well as routine assessment's accuracy, as sensitivity, specificity, false-positive and false-negative rates along with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). We also examined cases' smear history, to investigate possible false-positive recurrence.

RESULTS

We audited 1632 smears of 392 women (18.9% cases, 81.1% controls). In the routine assessment, the overall prevalence of positive results was 4.5% (29.0% among cases). According to the expert audit, the overall prevalence of positive results was 7.7% (40.8% among cases). When restricting analyses to the 3 years preceding diagnosis/study entry, this prevalence increased to 11.9% overall (61.4% among cases). The overall sensitivity of the routine assessment was 54.9% (66.8% for cases).

CONCLUSION

As cytology remains an important part of CC screening, quality issues must be urgently addressed in Germany. Shifting to objective methods such as primary high-risk HPV screening followed by triaging may help CC elimination in Germany.

Second primary cancer among 217702 colorectal cancer survivors: An analysis of national German cancer registry data

With improvements in survival after colorectal cancer (CRC), more survivors are at risk of developing a second cancer, particularly in younger populations where CRC incidence is increasing. We estimated the incidence of second primary cancer (SPC) in CRC survivors and its potential risk factors. We identified CRC cases diagnosed between 1990 and 2011 and SPCs until 2013 from nine German cancer registries. Standardized incidence ratios (SIR) and absolute excess risk (AER) per 10 000 person-years were calculated and were stratified by index site: colon cancer (CC) and rectal cancer (RC), age and sex. Cox regression assessed potential SPC risk factors, including primary tumor-related therapy considering death as a competing risk. We included 217 202 primary CRC cases. SPC occurred in 18 751 CRC survivors (8.6%; median age: 69 years). Risk of cancer was significantly higher in CRC survivors than in the general population (SIR males 1.14, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.12-1.17, AER = 24.7; SIR females 1.20, 95% CI 1.17-1.23, AER = 22.8). Increased risks of SPCs were observed for the digestive system, urinary system and female and male reproductive organs. CRC incidence increased in younger persons (<50 years) and SPC incidence was 4-fold in this group (SIR males 4.51, 95% CI 4.04-5.01, AER = 64.2; SIR females 4.03, 95% CI 3.62-4.48, AER = 77.0). Primary tumor-related factors associated with SPC risk were right-sided cancer and smaller primary tumor size. Treatment and risk of SPC differed for CC (no effect) and RC (lower risk after chemotherapy). CRC survivors have excess risk of developing SPC, with particular characteristics that could guide targeted surveillance.

Changes in the probability of hysterectomy in the city of Mainz and Mainz-Bingen region, Germany

BACKGROUND

To assess the hysterectomy probability by calendar period and age, the overall and the age-specific prevalence of hysterectomy in women aged 30-65 years.

METHODS

Baseline data (2005-2007) from the population-based MARZY study conducted in Mainz and Mainz-Bingen, Germany, were analysed. 6429 women aged 30-65 years were asked whether they had undergone a hysterectomy and the date and indication of the procedure. We calculated the 5-year age-specific prevalence of hysterectomy and estimated the probability of undergoing a hysterectomy combining two approaches: 1) Kaplan-Meier and 2) Inverse probability weighting (IPW). We assessed potential changes over calendar periods by simulating survival curves, having hysterectomy as the event, employing a Cox proportional hazard model.

RESULTS

Data on hysterectomy were available for 4719 women. Of these, 961 (20.4%) had undergone a hysterectomy between 1960 and 2006. The hysterectomy prevalence was highest among the 60-64 year-olds (40.7%). The IPW-corrected probability of having a hysterectomy up to the age of 65 years was 36.4%. The age-specific probability of hysterectomy increased from 0.1% (20-24 years), peaking at 45-49 years (7.8%) and declining thereafter to less than 5% among women aged 50 and older. Over time, women were hysterectomised at an increasingly older age. Most hysterectomies (86.7%) were done due to benign disease.

CONCLUSIONS

A shift to older age at hysterectomy with an advancing calendar period likely reflects changes in clinical practice in Germany.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Landesärztekammer Rheinland-Pfalz: 837.438.03 (4100).

Incidence of smoking-related second primary cancers after lung cancer in Germany: an analysis of nationwide cancer registry data

INTRODUCTION

About 80% of lung cancer cases in Germany are attributable to smoking. Patients with a lung cancer diagnosis may remain at increased risk of developing smoking-related second primary cancers (SPC).

METHODS

Anonymous data from 11 population-based cancer registries covering about 50% of the German population were pooled for the analysis. Included patients were diagnosed with an index lung cancer between 2002 and 2013, 30 to 99 years old at diagnosis and survived for at least 6 months. We calculated standardized incidence ratios (SIR) - stratified by age, sex, region and period - comparing the incidence of smoking-related and other SPC to the general population.

RESULTS

Of the 135,589 lung cancer survivors (68.2% male; mean follow-up 30.8 months) analyzed, 5,298 developed an SPC. In males the risk was particularly high for SPCs of the larynx (SIR = 3.70; 95% CI: 3.14-4.34), pharynx (3.17; 2.61-3.81) and oral cavity (2.86; 2.38-3.41). For females SIRs were notably elevated for esophagus (4.66; 3.15-6.66), oral cavity (3.14; 2.03-4.63) and urinary tract (2.68; 2.04-3.45). When combining all smoking-related cancer sites, SIR was 1.41 in males (95% CI: 1.36-1.47) and 1.81 in females (95% CI: 1.68-1.94). We observed that males had a 1.46-fold (95% CI: 1.37-1.56) and females a 1.33-fold (95% CI: 1.20-1.47) increased risk for smoking-related compared to other cancers.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with primary lung cancer were at increased risk for developing a smoking-related SPC. Therefore, the advantages of increased patient surveillance and the benefits of smoking cessation strategies should be considered.

Impact of opportunistic screening on squamous cell and adenocarcinoma of the cervix in Germany: A population-based case-control study

Background

We investigated the uptake of opportunistic cervical cancer screening (CCS) and other risk factors and their association with cervical cancer in Germany in a case-control study.

Methods and findings

We recruited incident cases of cervical cancer (ICD-10 C53) diagnosed between 2012 and 2016 and matched with three population-based controls, based on age and region of residence. Cases and controls reported their CCS participation during the past ten years (frequent: every three years; no or infrequent: less than every three years) and other relevant variables. We fitted conditional logistic regression models, reporting odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). We report overall and stratified analyses by histologic group (squamous cell–SCC, and adenocarcinoma–AC), T category (T1 and T2+), and age (<50 and ≥50 years). We analysed 217 cases and 652 matched controls. 53.0% of cases and 85.7% of controls attended CCS frequently. In the overall adjusted model, no or infrequent participation in CCS (OR 5.63; 95% CI 3.51 to 9.04), having had more than one sexual partner (OR 2.86; 95%CI 1.50 to 5.45) and obesity (OR 1.69; 95% CI 1.01 to 2.83) were associated with cervical cancer. Twelve years of schooling (OR 0.37; 95% CI 0.23 to 0.60) and a net monthly income of €3000 or more (OR 0.50; 95% CI 0.30 to 0.82) were protective factors. In the stratified analyses, no or infrequent participation was associated with T1 (OR 4.37; 95% CI 2.48 to 7.71), T2+ (OR 10.67; 95% CI 3.83 to 29.74), SCC (OR 6.88; 95% CI 4.08 to 11.59) and AC (OR 3.95; 95% CI 1.47 to 10.63).

Conclusion

Although women who frequently attended CCS were less likely to develop cervical cancer, especially larger tumours, the high proportion of cases who had been frequently screened prior to diagnosis underscores the need to investigate the quality of cytology and treatment of precancerous lesions in Germany.

Estimates of the global burden of cervical cancer associated with HIV

Background

HIV enhances human papillomavirus (HPV)-induced carcinogenesis. However, the contribution of HIV to cervical cancer burden at a population level has not been quantified. We aimed to investigate cervical cancer risk among women living with HIV and to estimate the global cervical cancer burden associated with HIV.

Methods

We did a systematic literature search and meta-analysis of five databases (PubMed, Embase, Global Health [CABI.org], Web of Science, and Global Index Medicus) to identify studies analysing the association between HIV infection and cervical cancer. We estimated the pooled risk of cervical cancer among women living with HIV across four continents (Africa, Asia, Europe, and North America). The risk ratio (RR) was combined with country-specific UNAIDS estimates of HIV prevalence and GLOBOCAN 2018 estimates of cervical cancer to calculate the proportion of women living with HIV among women with cervical cancer and population attributable fractions and age-standardised incidence rates (ASIRs) of HIV-attributable cervical cancer.

Findings

24 studies met our inclusion criteria, which included 236 127 women living with HIV. The pooled risk of cervical cancer was increased in women living with HIV (RR 6·07, 95% CI 4·40–8·37). Globally, 5·8% (95% CI 4·6–7·3) of new cervical cancer cases in 2018 (33 000 new cases, 95% CI 26 000–42 000) were diagnosed in women living with HIV and 4·9% (95% CI 3·6–6·4) were attributable to HIV infection (28 000 new cases, 20 000–36 000). The most affected regions were southern Africa and eastern Africa. In southern Africa, 63·8% (95% CI 58·9–68·1) of women with cervical cancer (9200 new cases, 95% CI 8500–9800) were living with HIV, as were 27·4% (23·7–31·7) of women in eastern Africa (14 000 new cases, 12 000–17 000). ASIRs of HIV-attributable cervical cancer were more than 20 per 100 000 in six countries, all in southern Africa and eastern Africa.

Interpretation

Women living with HIV have a significantly increased risk of cervical cancer. HPV vaccination and cervical cancer screening for women living with HIV are especially important for countries in southern Africa and eastern Africa, where a substantial HIV-attributable cervical cancer burden has added to the existing cervical cancer burden.

Funding

WHO, US Agency for International Development, and US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief.

Incidence of rare cancers in the city of São Paulo, Brazil

INTRODUCTION:

Rare cancers are a challenge for clinical practice as well as for epidemiology and public health. Studies on this subject are few and limited to the study of cases with scarce epidemiologic information. This study aimed to evaluate the incidence of rare cancers and to compare the demographic, anatomic, and histologic characteristics of rare and nonrare (common) cancers.

METHODS:

Incidence data were obtained from the Population-based Cancer Registry of São Paulo, Brazil. Rare neoplasms were those defined in the RARECARE list, which takes into account an incidence lower than 6/100,000/year.

RESULTS:

In São Paulo, 20.4% of tumors had an incidence lower than 6/100,000/year from 1997 to 2012, being therefore considered as rare tumors. We identified 11 entities with an incidence greater than 6/100,000/year (common neoplasms) and 186 entities with an incidence lower than 6/100,000/year (rare neoplasms). The mean annual incidence of all cancers was 365 per 100,000 in São Paulo between 1997 and 2012, and the incidence of all rare tumors was 74.5 per 100,000.

CONCLUSIONS:

This study presents the burden of rare cancers in Brazil. It is expected to be an incentive for further studies of these entities in order to know the epidemiologic profile of rare tumors in Brazil and to provide a more effective diagnostic and therapeutic approach.

Cancer survival in people with AIDS: A population-based study from São Paulo, Brazil

Cancer survival among people with AIDS (PWA) has been described in developed countries, but there is lack of data from developing countries. The aim of this study was to evaluate survival after cancer diagnosis in PWA and compare it with people without AIDS (non-PWA) in São Paulo, Brazil. A probabilistic record linkage was carried out between the databases of the Population-based Cancer Registry of São Paulo (PBCR-SP) and the AIDS registry of SP (SINAN) to identify PWA who developed cancer. For comparison, non-PWA were frequency matched from the PBCR-SP by cancer site/type, sex, age, and period. Hazard ratio (HR) stratified by matching variables was estimated using a Cox proportional hazards model. A total of 1,294 PWA (20 patients with two primary site tumors) were included in the site/type-specific analyses. AIDS-defining cancers (ADC) comprised 51.9% of cases assessed. The all-cancer 5-year overall survival in PWA was 49.4% versus 72.7% in non-PWA (HR = 2.64; 95%CI = 2.39-2.91). Survival was impaired in PWA for both ADC (HR = 2.93; 95%CI = 2.49-3.45) and non-ADC (HR = 2.51; 95%CI = 2.21-2.84), including bladder (HR = 8.11; 95% CI = 2.09-31.52), lung (HR = 2.93; 95%CI = 1.97-4.36) and anal cancer (HR = 2.53; 95%CI = 1.63-3.94). These disparities were seen mainly in the first year after cancer diagnosis. The overall survival was significantly lower in PWA in comparison with non-PWA in São Paulo, as seen in high-income countries. Efforts to enhance early diagnosis and ensure proper cancer treatment in PWA should be emphasized.

Trends in the incidence of AIDS-defining and non-AIDS-defining cancers in people living with AIDS: a population-based study from São Paulo, Brazil

People living with AIDS are at increased risk of developing certain cancers. Since the introduction of the highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART), the incidence of AIDS-defining cancers (ADCs) has decreased in high-income countries. The objective of this study was to analyse trends in ADCs and non-AIDS-defining cancers (NADCs) in HIV-positive people with a diagnosis of AIDS, in comparison to the general population, in São Paulo, Brazil. A probabilistic record linkage between the 'Population-based Cancer Registry of São Paulo' and the AIDS notification database (SINAN) was conducted. Cancer trends were assessed by annual per cent change (APC). In people with AIDS, 2074 cancers were diagnosed. Among men with AIDS, the most frequent cancer was Kaposi's sarcoma (469; 31.1%), followed by non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL; 304; 20.1%). A decline was seen for ADCs (APC = -14.1%). All NADCs have increased (APC = 7.4%/year) significantly since the mid-2000s driven by the significant upward trends of anal (APC = 24.6%/year) and lung cancers (APC = 15.9%/year). In contrast, in men from the general population, decreasing trends were observed for these cancers. For women with AIDS, the most frequent cancer was cervical (114; 20.2%), followed by NHL (96; 17.0%). Significant declining trends were seen for both ADCs (APC = -15.6%/year) and all NADCs (APC = -15.8%/year), a comparable pattern to that found for the general female population. Trends in cancers among people with AIDS in São Paulo showed similar patterns to those found in developed countries. Although ADCs have significantly decreased, probably due to the introduction of HAART, NADCs in men have shown an opposite upward trend.