Assessment of software methods for estimating protein-protein relative binding affinities

Fast, accurate ranking of engineered proteins by target-binding propensity using structure modeling

Deep-learning-based methods for protein structure prediction have achieved unprecedented accuracy, yet their utility in the engineering of protein-based binders remains constrained due to a gap between the ability to predict the structures of candidate proteins and the ability toprioritize proteins by their potential to bind to a target. To bridge this gap, we introduce Automated Pairwise Peptide-Receptor Analysis for Screening Engineered proteins (APPRAISE), a method for predicting the target-binding propensity of engineered proteins. After generating structural models of engineered proteins competing for binding to a target using an established structure prediction tool such as AlphaFold-Multimer or ESMFold, APPRAISE performs a rapid (under 1 CPU second per model) scoring analysis that takes into account biophysical and geometrical constraints. As proof-of-concept cases, we demonstrate that APPRAISE can accurately classify receptor-dependent vs. receptor-independent adeno-associated viral vectors and diverse classes of engineered proteins such as miniproteins targeting the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spike, nanobodies targeting a G-protein-coupled receptor, and peptides that specifically bind to transferrin receptor or programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1). APPRAISE is accessible through a web-based notebook interface using Google Colaboratory (https://tiny.cc/APPRAISE). With its accuracy, interpretability, and generalizability, APPRAISE promises to expand the utility of protein structure prediction and accelerate protein engineering for biomedical applications.

Exploring the ability of the MD+FoldX method to predict SARS-CoV-2 antibody escape mutations using large-scale data

Antibody escape mutations pose a significant challenge to the effectiveness of vaccines and antibody-based therapies. The ability to predict these escape mutations with computer simulations would allow us to detect threats early and develop effective countermeasures, but a lack of large-scale experimental data has hampered the validation of these calculations. In this study, we evaluate the ability of the MD+FoldX molecular modeling method to predict escape mutations by leveraging a large deep mutational scanning dataset, focusing on the SARS-CoV-2 receptor binding domain. Our results show a positive correlation between predicted and experimental data, indicating that mutations with reduced predicted binding affinity correlate moderately with higher experimental escape fractions. We also demonstrate that better performance can be achieved using affinity cutoffs tailored to distinct antibody-antigen interactions rather than a one-size-fits-all approach. We find that 70% of the systems surpass the 50% precision mark, and demonstrate success in identifying mutations present in significant variants of concern and variants of interest. Despite promising results for some systems, our study highlights the challenges in comparing predicted and experimental values. It also emphasizes the need for new binding affinity methods with improved accuracy that are fast enough to estimate hundreds to thousands of antibody-antigen binding affinities.

AlphaFold2-Enabled Atomistic Modeling of Structure, Conformational Ensembles, and Binding Energetics of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2.86 Spike Protein with ACE2 Host Receptor and Antibodies: Compensatory Functional Effects of Binding Hotspots in Modulating Mechanisms of Receptor Binding and Immune Escape

The latest wave of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variants displayed a growth advantage and increased viral fitness through convergent evolution of functional hotspots that work synchronously to balance fitness requirements for productive receptor binding and efficient immune evasion. In this study, we combined AlphaFold2-based structural modeling approaches with atomistic simulations and mutational profiling of binding energetics and stability for prediction and comprehensive analysis of the structure, dynamics, and binding of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2.86 spike variant with ACE2 host receptor and distinct classes of antibodies. We adapted several AlphaFold2 approaches to predict both the structure and conformational ensembles of the Omicron BA.2.86 spike protein in the complex with the host receptor. The results showed that the AlphaFold2-predicted structural ensemble of the BA.2.86 spike protein complex with ACE2 can accurately capture the main conformational states of the Omicron variant. Complementary to AlphaFold2 structural predictions, microsecond molecular dynamics simulations reveal the details of the conformational landscape and produced equilibrium ensembles of the BA.2.86 structures that are used to perform mutational scanning of spike residues and characterize structural stability and binding energy hotspots. The ensemble-based mutational profiling of the receptor binding domain residues in the BA.2 and BA.2.86 spike complexes with ACE2 revealed a group of conserved hydrophobic hotspots and critical variant-specific contributions of the BA.2.86 convergent mutational hotspots R403K, F486P, and R493Q. To examine the immune evasion properties of BA.2.86 in atomistic detail, we performed structure-based mutational profiling of the spike protein binding interfaces with distinct classes of antibodies that displayed significantly reduced neutralization against the BA.2.86 variant. The results revealed the molecular basis of compensatory functional effects of the binding hotspots, showing that BA.2.86 lineage may have evolved to outcompete other Omicron subvariants by improving immune evasion while preserving binding affinity with ACE2 via through a compensatory effect of R493Q and F486P convergent mutational hotspots. This study demonstrated that an integrative approach combining AlphaFold2 predictions with complementary atomistic molecular dynamics simulations and robust ensemble-based mutational profiling of spike residues can enable accurate and comprehensive characterization of structure, dynamics, and binding mechanisms of newly emerging Omicron variants.

Statistical modeling to quantify the uncertainty of FoldX-predicted protein folding and binding stability

BACKGROUND

Computational methods of predicting protein stability changes upon missense mutations are invaluable tools in high-throughput studies involving a large number of protein variants. However, they are limited by a wide variation in accuracy and difficulty of assessing prediction uncertainty. Using a popular computational tool, FoldX, we develop a statistical framework that quantifies the uncertainty of predicted changes in protein stability.

RESULTS

We show that multiple linear regression models can be used to quantify the uncertainty associated with FoldX prediction for individual mutations. Comparing the performance among models with varying degrees of complexity, we find that the model precision improves significantly when we utilize molecular dynamics simulation as part of the FoldX workflow. Based on the model that incorporates information from molecular dynamics, biochemical properties, as well as FoldX energy terms, we can generally expect upper bounds on the uncertainty of folding stability predictions of ± 2.9 kcal/mol and ± 3.5 kcal/mol for binding stability predictions. The uncertainty for individual mutations varies; our model estimates it using FoldX energy terms, biochemical properties of the mutated residue, as well as the variability among snapshots from molecular dynamics simulation.

CONCLUSIONS

Using a linear regression framework, we construct models to predict the uncertainty associated with FoldX prediction of stability changes upon mutation. This technique is straightforward and can be extended to other computational methods as well.

An optimized thermodynamics integration protocol for identifying beneficial mutations in antibody design

Accurate identification of beneficial mutations is central to antibody design. Many knowledge-based (KB) computational approaches have been developed to predict beneficial mutations, but their accuracy leaves room for improvement. Thermodynamic integration (TI) is an alchemical free energy algorithm that offers an alternative technique for identifying beneficial mutations, but its performance has not been evaluated. In this study, we developed an efficient TI protocol with high accuracy for predicting binding free energy changes of antibody mutations. The improved TI method outperforms KB methods at identifying both beneficial and deleterious mutations. We observed that KB methods have higher accuracies in predicting deleterious mutations than beneficial mutations. A pipeline using KB methods to efficiently exclude deleterious mutations and TI to accurately identify beneficial mutations was developed for high-throughput mutation scanning. The pipeline was applied to optimize the binding affinity of a broadly sarbecovirus neutralizing antibody 10-40 against the circulating severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) omicron variant. Three identified beneficial mutations show strong synergy and improve both binding affinity and neutralization potency of antibody 10-40. Molecular dynamics simulation revealed that the three mutations improve the binding affinity of antibody 10-40 through the stabilization of an altered binding mode with increased polar and hydrophobic interactions. Above all, this study presents an accurate and efficient TI-based approach for optimizing antibodies and other biomolecules.

The effect of mutations on binding interactions between the SARS-CoV-2 receptor binding domain and neutralizing antibodies B38 and CB6

SARS-CoV-2 is the pathogen responsible for COVID-19 that has claimed over six million lives as of July 2022. The severity of COVID-19 motivates a need to understand how it could evolve to escape potential treatments and to find ways to strengthen existing treatments. Here, we used the molecular modeling methods MD + FoldX and PyRosetta to study the SARS-CoV-2 spike receptor binding domain (S-RBD) bound to two neutralizing antibodies, B38 and CB6 and generated lists of antibody escape and antibody strengthening mutations. Our resulting watchlist contains potential antibody escape mutations against B38/CB6 and consists of 211/186 mutations across 35/22 S-RBD sites. Some of these mutations have been identified in previous studies as being significant in human populations (e.g., N501Y). The list of potential antibody strengthening mutations that are predicted to improve binding of B38/CB6 to S-RBD consists of 116/45 mutations across 29/13 sites. These mutations could be used to improve the therapeutic value of these antibodies.

Defining the HIV Capsid Binding Site of Nucleoporin 153

The interaction between the HIV-1 capsid and human nucleoporin 153 (NUP153) is vital for delivering the HIV-1 preintegration complex into the nucleus via the nuclear pore complex. The interaction with the capsid requires a phenylalanine/glycine-containing motif in the C-terminus of NUP153 (NUP153C). This study used molecular modeling and biochemical assays to comprehensively determine the amino acids in NUP153 that are important for capsid interaction. Molecular dynamics, FoldX, and PyRosetta simulations delineated the minimal capsid binding motif of NUP153 based on the known structure of NUP153 bound to the HIV-1 capsid hexamer. Computational predictions were experimentally validated by testing the interaction of NUP153 with capsid using an in vitro binding assay and a cell-based TRIM-NUP153C restriction assay. This work identified eight amino acids from P1411 to G1418 that stably engage with capsid, with significant correlations between the interactions predicted by molecular models and empirical experiments. This validated the usefulness of this multidisciplinary approach to rapidly characterize the interaction between human proteins and the HIV-1 capsid. IMPORTANCE The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) can infect nondividing cells by interacting with the host nuclear pore complex. The host nuclear pore protein NUP153 directly interacts with the HIV capsid to promote viral nuclear entry. This study used a multidisciplinary approach combining computational and experimental techniques to comprehensively map the effect of mutating the amino acids of NUP153 on HIV capsid interaction. This work showed a significant correlation between computational and empirical data sets, revealing that the HIV capsid interacted specifically with only six amino acids of NUP153. The simplicity of the interaction motif suggested other FG-containing motifs could also interact with the HIV-1 capsid. Furthermore, it was predicted that naturally occurring polymorphisms in human and nonhuman primates would disrupt NUP153 interaction with capsid, potentially protecting certain populations from HIV-1 infection.

Molecular Modeling Predicts Novel Antibody Escape Mutations in the Respiratory Syncytial Virus Fusion Glycoprotein

Monoclonal antibodies are increasingly used for the prevention and/or treatment of viral infections. One caveat of their use is the ability of viruses to evolve resistance to antibody binding and neutralization. Computational strategies to identify viral mutations that may disrupt antibody binding would leverage the wealth of viral genomic sequence data to monitor for potential antibody-resistant mutations. The respiratory syncytial virus is an important pathogen for which monoclonal antibodies against the fusion (F) protein are used to prevent severe disease in high-risk infants. In this study, we used an approach that combines molecular dynamics simulations with FoldX to estimate changes in free energy in F protein folding and binding to the motavizumab antibody upon each possible amino acid change. We systematically selected 8 predicted escape mutations and tested them in an infectious clone. Consistent with our F protein stability predictions, replication-effective viruses were observed for each selected mutation. Six of the eight variants showed increased resistance to neutralization by motavizumab. Flow cytometry was used to validate the estimated (model-predicted) effects on antibody binding to F. Using surface plasmon resonance, we determined that changes in the on-rate of motavizumab binding were associated with the reduced affinity for two novel escape mutations. Our study empirically validated the accuracy of our molecular modeling approach and emphasized the role of biophysical protein modeling in predicting viral resistance to antibody-based therapeutics that can be used to monitor the emergence of resistant viruses and to design improved therapeutic antibodies. IMPORTANCE Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) causes severe disease in young infants, particularly those with heart or lung diseases or born prematurely. Because no vaccine is currently available, monoclonal antibodies are used to prevent severe RSV disease in high-risk infants. While it is known that RSV evolves to avoid recognition by antibodies, screening tools that can predict which changes to the virus may lead to antibody resistance are greatly needed.

Effect of identified non-synonymous mutations in DPP4 receptor binding residues among highly exposed human population in Morocco to MERS-CoV through computational approach

Dipeptidyl peptidase 4 (DPP4) has been identified as the main receptor of MERS-CoV facilitating its cellular entry and enhancing its viral replication upon the emergence of this novel coronavirus. DPP4 receptor is highly conserved among many species, but the genetic variability among direct binding residues to MERS-CoV restrained its cellular tropism to humans, camels and bats. The occurrence of natural polymorphisms in human DPP4 binding residues is not well characterized. Therefore, we aimed to assess the presence of potential mutations in DPP4 receptor binding domain (RBD) among a population highly exposed to MERS-CoV in Morocco and predict their effect on DPP4 –MERS-CoV binding affinity through a computational approach. DPP4 synonymous and non-synonymous mutations were identified by sanger sequencing, and their effect were modelled by mutation prediction tools, docking and molecular dynamics (MD) simulation to evaluate structural changes in human DPP4 protein bound to MERS-CoV S1 RBD protein. We identified eight mutations, two synonymous mutations (A291 =, R317 =) and six non-synonymous mutations (N229I, K267E, K267N, T288P, L294V, I295L). Through docking and MD simulation techniques, the chimeric DPP4 –MERS-CoV S1 RBD protein complex models carrying one of the identified non-synonymous mutations sustained a stable binding affinity for the complex that might lead to a robust cellular attachment of MERS-CoV except for the DPP4 N229I mutation. The latter is notable for a loss of binding affinity of DPP4 with MERS-CoV S1 RBD that might affect negatively on cellular entry of the virus. It is important to confirm our molecular modelling prediction with in-vitro studies to acquire a broader overview of the effect of these identified mutations.

Atomistic Simulations and In Silico Mutational Profiling of Protein Stability and Binding in the SARS-CoV-2 Spike Protein Complexes with Nanobodies: Molecular Determinants of Mutational Escape Mechanisms

Structure-functional studies have recently revealed a spectrum of diverse high-affinity nanobodies with efficient neutralizing capacity against SARS-CoV-2 virus and resilience against mutational escape. In this study, we combine atomistic simulations with the ensemble-based mutational profiling of binding for the SARS-CoV-2 S-RBD complexes with a wide range of nanobodies to identify dynamic and binding affinity fingerprints and characterize the energetic determinants of nanobody-escaping mutations. Using an in silico mutational profiling approach for probing the protein stability and binding, we examine dynamics and energetics of the SARS-CoV-2 complexes with single nanobodies Nb6 and Nb20, VHH E, a pair combination VHH E + U, a biparatopic nanobody VHH VE, and a combination of the CC12.3 antibody and VHH V/W nanobodies. This study characterizes the binding energy hotspots in the SARS-CoV-2 protein and complexes with nanobodies providing a quantitative analysis of the effects of circulating variants and escaping mutations on binding that is consistent with a broad range of biochemical experiments. The results suggest that mutational escape may be controlled through structurally adaptable binding hotspots in the receptor-accessible binding epitope that are dynamically coupled to the stability centers in the distant binding epitope targeted by VHH U/V/W nanobodies. This study offers a plausible mechanism in which through cooperative dynamic changes, nanobody combinations and biparatopic nanobodies can elicit the increased binding affinity response and yield resilience to common escape mutants.