Country-level pandemic risk and preparedness classification based on COVID-19 data: A machine learning approach

Machine learning algorithms for predicting COVID-19 mortality in Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), a global public health crisis, continues to pose challenges despite preventive measures. The daily rise in COVID-19 cases is concerning, and the testing process is both time-consuming and costly. While several models have been created to predict mortality in COVID-19 patients, only a few have shown sufficient accuracy. Machine learning algorithms offer a promising approach to data-driven prediction of clinical outcomes, surpassing traditional statistical modeling. Leveraging machine learning (ML) algorithms could potentially provide a solution for predicting mortality in hospitalized COVID-19 patients in Ethiopia. Therefore, the aim of this study is to develop and validate machine-learning models for accurately predicting mortality in COVID-19 hospitalized patients in Ethiopia.

METHODS

Our study involved analyzing electronic medical records of COVID-19 patients who were admitted to public hospitals in Ethiopia. Specifically, we developed seven different machine learning models to predict COVID-19 patient mortality. These models included J48 decision tree, random forest (RF), k-nearest neighborhood (k-NN), multi-layer perceptron (MLP), Naïve Bayes (NB), eXtreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and logistic regression (LR). We then compared the performance of these models using data from a cohort of 696 patients through statistical analysis. To evaluate the effectiveness of the models, we utilized metrics derived from the confusion matrix such as sensitivity, specificity, precision, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC).

RESULTS

The study included a total of 696 patients, with a higher number of females (440 patients, accounting for 63.2%) compared to males. The median age of the participants was 35.0 years old, with an interquartile range of 18-79. After conducting different feature selection procedures, 23 features were examined, and identified as predictors of mortality, and it was determined that gender, Intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and alcohol drinking/addiction were the top three predictors of COVID-19 mortality. On the other hand, loss of smell, loss of taste, and hypertension were identified as the three lowest predictors of COVID-19 mortality. The experimental results revealed that the k-nearest neighbor (k-NN) algorithm outperformed than other machine learning algorithms, achieving an accuracy of 95.25%, sensitivity of 95.30%, precision of 92.7%, specificity of 93.30%, F1 score 93.98% and a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) score of 96.90%. These findings highlight the effectiveness of the k-NN algorithm in predicting COVID-19 outcomes based on the selected features.

CONCLUSION

Our study has developed an innovative model that utilizes hospital data to accurately predict the mortality risk of COVID-19 patients. The main objective of this model is to prioritize early treatment for high-risk patients and optimize strained healthcare systems during the ongoing pandemic. By integrating machine learning with comprehensive hospital databases, our model effectively classifies patients' mortality risk, enabling targeted medical interventions and improved resource management. Among the various methods tested, the K-nearest neighbors (KNN) algorithm demonstrated the highest accuracy, allowing for early identification of high-risk patients. Through KNN feature identification, we identified 23 predictors that significantly contribute to predicting COVID-19 mortality. The top five predictors are gender (female), intensive care unit (ICU) admission, alcohol drinking, smoking, and symptoms of headache and chills. This advancement holds great promise in enhancing healthcare outcomes and decision-making during the pandemic. By providing services and prioritizing patients based on the identified predictors, healthcare facilities and providers can improve the chances of survival for individuals. This model provides valuable insights that can guide healthcare professionals in allocating resources and delivering appropriate care to those at highest risk.

COVID-19 Pandemic Risk Assessment: Systematic Review

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic presents the possibility of future large-scale infectious disease outbreaks. In response, we conducted a systematic review of COVID-19 pandemic risk assessment to provide insights into countries' pandemic surveillance and preparedness for potential pandemic events in the post-COVID-19 era.

Objective

We aim to systematically identify relevant articles and synthesize pandemic risk assessment findings to facilitate government officials and public health experts in crisis planning.

Methods

This study followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) guidelines and included over 620,000 records from the World Health Organization COVID-19 Research Database. Articles related to pandemic risk assessment were identified based on a set of inclusion and exclusion criteria. Relevant articles were characterized based on study location, variable types, data-visualization techniques, research objectives, and methodologies. Findings were presented using tables and charts.

Results

Sixty-two articles satisfying both the inclusion and exclusion criteria were identified. Among the articles, 32.3% focused on local areas, while another 32.3% had a global coverage. Epidemic data were the most commonly used variables (74.2% of articles), with over half of them (51.6%) employing two or more variable types. The research objectives covered various aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic, with risk exposure assessment and identification of risk factors being the most common theme (35.5%). No dominant research methodology for risk assessment emerged from these articles.

Conclusion

Our synthesized findings support proactive planning and development of prevention and control measures in anticipation of future public health threats.

Deep Convolutional Neural Network Mechanism Assessment of COVID-19 Severity

As an epidemic, COVID-19's core test instrument still has serious flaws. To improve the present condition, all capabilities and tools available in this field are being used to combat the pandemic. Because of the contagious characteristics of the unique coronavirus (COVID-19) infection, an overwhelming comparison with patients queues up for pulmonary X-rays, overloading physicians and radiology and significantly impacting the quality of care, diagnosis, and outbreak prevention. Given the scarcity of clinical services such as intensive care and motorized ventilation systems in the aspect of this vastly transmissible ailment, it is critical to categorize patients as per their risk categories. This research describes a novel use of the deep convolutional neural network (CNN) technique to COVID-19 illness assessment seriousness. Utilizing chest X-ray images as contribution, an unsupervised DCNN model is constructed and suggested to split COVID-19 individuals into four seriousness classrooms: low, medium, serious, and crucial with an accuracy level of 96 percent. The efficiency of the DCNN model developed with the proposed methodology is demonstrated by empirical findings on a suitably huge sum of chest X-ray scans. To the evidence relating, it is the first COVID-19 disease incidence evaluation research with four different phases, to use a reasonably high number of X-ray images dataset and a DCNN with nearly all hyperparameters dynamically adjusted by the variable selection optimization task.

Predicting COVID-19 county-level case number trend by combining demographic characteristics and social distancing policies

Objective

Predicting daily trends in the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) case number is important to support individual decisions in taking preventative measures. This study aims to use COVID-19 case number history, demographic characteristics, and social distancing policies both independently/interdependently to predict the daily trend in the rise or fall of county-level cases.

Materials and Methods

We extracted 2093 features (5 from the US COVID-19 case number history, 1824 from the demographic characteristics independently/interdependently, and 264 from the social distancing policies independently/interdependently) for 3142 US counties. Using the top selected 200 features, we built 4 machine learning models: Logistic Regression, Naïve Bayes, Multi-Layer Perceptron, and Random Forest, along with 4 Ensemble methods: Average, Product, Minimum, and Maximum, and compared their performances.

Results

The Ensemble Average method had the highest area-under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.692. The top ranked features were all interdependent features.

Conclusion

The findings of this study suggest the predictive power of diverse features, especially when combined, in predicting county-level trends of COVID-19 cases and can be helpful to individuals in making their daily decisions. Our results may guide future studies to consider more features interdependently from conventionally distinct data sources in county-level predictive models. Our code is available at: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6332944.

Priority and age specific vaccination algorithm for the pandemic diseases: a comprehensive parametric prediction model

Background

There have been several destructive pandemic diseases in the human history. Since these pandemic diseases spread through human-to-human infection, a number of non-pharmacological policies has been enforced until an effective vaccine has been developed. In addition, even though a vaccine has been developed, due to the challenges in the production and distribution of the vaccine, the authorities have to optimize the vaccination policies based on the priorities. Considering all these facts, a comprehensive but simple parametric model enriched with the pharmacological and non-pharmacological policies has been proposed in this study to analyse and predict the future pandemic casualties.

Method

This paper develops a priority and age specific vaccination policy and modifies the non-pharmacological policies including the curfews, lockdowns, and restrictions. These policies are incorporated with the susceptible, suspicious, infected, hospitalized, intensive care, intubated, recovered, and death sub-models. The resulting model is parameterizable by the available data where a recursive least squares algorithm with the inequality constraints optimizes the unknown parameters. The inequality constraints ensure that the structural requirements are satisfied and the parameter weights are distributed proportionally.

Results

The results exhibit a distinctive third peak in the casualties occurring in 40 days and confirm that the intensive care, intubated, and death casualties converge to zero faster than the susceptible, suspicious, and infected casualties with the priority and age specific vaccination policy. The model also estimates that removing the curfews on the weekends and holidays cause more casualties than lifting the restrictions on the people with the chronic diseases and age over 65.

Conclusion

Sophisticated parametric models equipped with the pharmacological and non-pharmacological policies can predict the future pandemic casualties for various cases.

A machine learning based exploration of COVID-19 mortality risk

Early prediction of patient mortality risks during a pandemic can decrease mortality by assuring efficient resource allocation and treatment planning. This study aimed to develop and compare prognosis prediction machine learning models based on invasive laboratory and noninvasive clinical and demographic data from patients' day of admission. Three Support Vector Machine (SVM) models were developed and compared using invasive, non-invasive, and both groups. The results suggested that non-invasive features could provide mortality predictions that are similar to the invasive and roughly on par with the joint model. Feature inspection results from SVM-RFE and sparsity analysis displayed that, compared with the invasive model, the non-invasive model can provide better performances with a fewer number of features, pointing to the presence of high predictive information contents in several non-invasive features, including SPO2, age, and cardiovascular disorders. Furthermore, while the invasive model was able to provide better mortality predictions for the imminent future, non-invasive features displayed better performance for more distant expiration intervals. Early mortality prediction using non-invasive models can give us insights as to where and with whom to intervene. Combined with novel technologies, such as wireless wearable devices, these models can create powerful frameworks for various medical assignments and patient triage.

The application of artificial intelligence and data integration in COVID-19 studies: a scoping review

Objective

To summarize how artificial intelligence (AI) is being applied in COVID-19 research and determine whether these AI applications integrated heterogenous data from different sources for modeling.

Materials and Methods

We searched 2 major COVID-19 literature databases, the National Institutes of Health’s LitCovid and the World Health Organization’s COVID-19 database on March 9, 2021. Following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guideline, 2 reviewers independently reviewed all the articles in 2 rounds of screening.

Results

In the 794 studies included in the final qualitative analysis, we identified 7 key COVID-19 research areas in which AI was applied, including disease forecasting, medical imaging-based diagnosis and prognosis, early detection and prognosis (non-imaging), drug repurposing and early drug discovery, social media data analysis, genomic, transcriptomic, and proteomic data analysis, and other COVID-19 research topics. We also found that there was a lack of heterogenous data integration in these AI applications.

Discussion

Risk factors relevant to COVID-19 outcomes exist in heterogeneous data sources, including electronic health records, surveillance systems, sociodemographic datasets, and many more. However, most AI applications in COVID-19 research adopted a single-sourced approach that could omit important risk factors and thus lead to biased algorithms. Integrating heterogeneous data for modeling will help realize the full potential of AI algorithms, improve precision, and reduce bias.

Conclusion

There is a lack of data integration in the AI applications in COVID-19 research and a need for a multilevel AI framework that supports the analysis of heterogeneous data from different sources.

AI in Fighting Covid-19: Pandemic Management

Coronaviruses are a family of viruses found in several animal species, such as bats, cattle, cats, camels, and humans. With more than 1.6 million people dead worldwide, as of December 2020, the Covid-19 pandemic has brought about a unified need to address global health crises more aggressively. There is great urgency in decreasing the impact of a potential future outbreak, which can be done by gathering information about the disease and its effects on humans. Various artificial intelligence (AI) techniques can be utilized for the pandemic, such as COVID (CoV) management, a vast scientific field involving computers performing tasks capable of only human brains. Among the subsets of AI, there are Machine Learning (ML) techniques, which can learn from historical data examples without programming. While no prior data regarding the virus exists, the growing cases make for more data. In this research, we employ a literature review method to understand pandemic management's current state and how it can benefit by utilizing AI capabilities.

SOM-LWL method for identification of COVID-19 on chest X-rays

The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has had an immense impact on world health and daily life in many countries. Sturdy observing of the initial site of infection in patients is crucial to gain control in the struggle with COVID-19. The early automated detection of the recent coronavirus disease (COVID-19) will help to limit its dissemination worldwide. Many initial studies have focused on the identification of the genetic material of coronavirus and have a poor detection rate for long-term surgery. The first imaging procedure that played an important role in COVID-19 treatment was the chest X-ray. Radiological imaging is often used as a method that emphasizes the performance of chest X-rays. Recent findings indicate the presence of COVID-19 in patients with irregular findings on chest X-rays. There are many reports on this topic that include machine learning strategies for the identification of COVID-19 using chest X-rays. Other current studies have used non-public datasets and complex artificial intelligence (AI) systems. In our research, we suggested a new COVID-19 identification technique based on the locality-weighted learning and self-organization map (LWL-SOM) strategy for detecting and capturing COVID-19 cases. We first grouped images from chest X-ray datasets based on their similar features in different clusters using the SOM strategy in order to discriminate between the COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 cases. Then, we built our intelligent learning model based on the LWL algorithm to diagnose and detect COVID-19 cases. The proposed SOM-LWL model improved the correlation coefficient performance results between the Covid19, no-finding, and pneumonia cases; pneumonia and no-finding cases; Covid19 and pneumonia cases; and Covid19 and no-finding cases from 0.9613 to 0.9788, 0.6113 to 1 0.8783 to 0.9999, and 0.8894 to 1, respectively. The proposed LWL-SOM had better results for discriminating COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 patients than the current machine learning-based solutions using AI evaluation measures.

What Can COVID-19 Teach Us about Using AI in Pandemics?

The COVID-19 pandemic put significant strain on societies and their resources, with the healthcare system and workers being particularly affected. Artificial Intelligence (AI) offers the unique possibility of improving the response to a pandemic as it emerges and evolves. Here, we utilize the WHO framework of a pandemic evolution to analyze the various AI applications. Specifically, we analyzed AI from the perspective of all five domains of the WHO pandemic response. To effectively review the current scattered literature, we organized a sample of relevant literature from various professional and popular resources. The article concludes with a consideration of AI’s weaknesses as key factors affecting AI in future pandemic preparedness and response.