Categorisation of myopia progression by change in refractive error and axial elongation and their impact on benefit of myopia control using orthokeratology

Machine learning-based nomogram to predict poor response to overnight orthokeratology in Chinese myopic children: A multicentre, retrospective study

PURPOSE

To develop and validate an effective nomogram for predicting poor response to orthokeratology.

METHODS

Myopic children (aged 8-15 years) treated with orthokeratology between February 2018 and January 2022 were screened in four hospitals of different tiers (i.e. municipal and provincial) in China. Potential predictors included 32 baseline clinical variables. Nomogram for the outcome (1-year axial elongation ≥0.20 mm: poor response; <0.20 mm: good response) was computed from a logistic regression model with the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator. The data from the First Affiliated Hospital of Chengdu Medical College were randomly assigned (7:3) to the training and validation cohorts. An external cohort from three independent multicentre was used for the model test. Model performance was assessed by discrimination (the area under curve, AUC), calibration (calibration plots) and utility (decision curve analysis).

RESULTS

Between January 2022 and March 2023, 1183 eligible subjects were screened from the First Affiliated Hospital of Chengdu Medical College, then randomly divided into training (n = 831) and validation (n = 352) cohorts. A total of 405 eligible subjects were screened in the external cohort. Predictors included in the nomogram were baseline age, spherical equivalent, axial length, pupil diameter, surface asymmetry index and parental myopia (p < 0.05). This nomogram demonstrated excellent calibration, clinical net benefit and discrimination, with the AUC of 0.871 (95% CI 0.847-0.894), 0.863 (0.826-0.901) and 0.817 (0.777-0.857) in the training, validation and external cohorts, respectively. An online calculator was generated for free access (http://39.96.75.172:8182/#/nomogram).

CONCLUSION

The nomogram provides accurate individual prediction of poor response to overnight orthokeratology in Chinese myopic children.

Effective Decrease in Myopia Progression With Two Mechanisms of Management

PURPOSE

To ascertain the effectiveness of 0.01% atropine treatment to inhibit myopia progression and the possible additive potency with peripheral defocus contact lenses over 3 years and the rebound effect 1 year after cessation of treatment.

METHODS

This prospective study included 127 children aged 8 to 5 years, divided into three treatment groups: 0.01% atropine and single-vision spectacles (At+SV, n = 36), 0.01% atropine and peripheral defocus contact lens (At+PDCL, n = 30), and 0.01% atropine and dual-focus contact lens (At+DF, n = 25). A control group was prescribed single-vision spectacles (n = 36). Cycloplegic spherical equivalence refraction was measured every 6 months during 3 years of treatment and 1 year after cessation.

RESULTS

Myopia progression decreased over 3 years of treatment, more during the second and third years than the first year, to a statistically significant degree in the atropine groups (P < .01): in the first, second, and third years, respectively, -0.42 ± 0.34, -0.19 ± 0.18, -0.22 ± 0.19 diopters (D) in the At+SV group, -0.26 ± 0.21, -0.14 ± 0.37, and -0.15 ± 0.31 D in the At+PDCL group, and -0.22 ± 0.15, -0.15 ± 0.22, and -0.11 ± 0.14 D in the At+DF group. Myopia progressed 1 year after cessation of treatment: -0.29 ± 0.28 D in the At+SV group, -0.13 ± 0.28 D in the At+PDCL group, and -0.09 ± 0.18 D in the At+DF group. After 3 years, there was no statistically significant difference in myopia progression between the At+SV and At+PDCL or At+DF groups (P < .05).

CONCLUSIONS

Low-dose atropine has been substantiated in this cohort as an effective treatment to decelerate myopia progression over 3 years, more effective in the second and third years of treatment. The combination treatment did not exhibit a statistically significant advantage over monotherapy in this cohort. The At+DF group exhibited a statistically lower rebound effect than the At+SV group. [J Pediatr Ophthalmol Strabismus. 2024;61(3):204-210.].

Myopia progression risk assessment score (MPRAS): a promising new tool for risk stratification

Timely identification of individuals "at-risk" for myopia progression is the leading requisite for myopia practice as it aids in the decision of appropriate management. This study aimed to develop 'myopia progression risk assessment score' (MPRAS) based on multiple risk factors (10) to determine whether a myope is "at-risk" or "low-risk" for myopia progression. Two risk-score models (model-1: non-weightage, model-2: weightage) were developed. Ability of MPRAS to diagnose individual "at-risk" for myopia progression was compared against decision of five clinicians in 149 myopes, aged 6-29 years. Using model-1 (no-weightage), further 7 sub-models were created with varying number of risk factors in decreasing step-wise manner (1a: 10 factors to 1g: 4 factors). In random eye analysis for model-1, the highest Youden's J-index (0.63-0.65) led to the MPRAS cut-off score of 41.50-43.50 for 5 clinicians with a sensitivity ranging from 78 to 85% and specificity ranging from 79 to 87%. For this cut-off score, the mean area under the curve (AUC) between clinicians and the MPRAS model ranged from 0.89 to 0.90. Model-2 (weighted for few risk-factors) provided similar sensitivity, specificity, and AUC. Sub-model analysis revealed greater AUC with high sensitivity (89%) and specificity (94%) in model-1g that has 4 risk factors compared to other sub-models (1a-1f). All the MPRAS models showed good agreement with the clinician's decision in identifying individuals "at-risk" for myopia progression.

IMI 2023 Digest

Myopia is a dynamic and rapidly moving field, with ongoing research providing a better understanding of the etiology leading to novel myopia control strategies. In 2019, the International Myopia Institute (IMI) assembled and published a series of white papers across relevant topics and updated the evidence with a digest in 2021. Here, we summarize findings across key topics from the previous 2 years. Studies in animal models have continued to explore how wavelength and intensity of light influence eye growth and have examined new pharmacologic agents and scleral cross-linking as potential strategies for slowing myopia. In children, the term premyopia is gaining interest with increased attention to early implementation of myopia control. Most studies use the IMI definitions of ≤-0.5 diopters (D) for myopia and ≤-6.0 D for high myopia, although categorization and definitions for structural consequences of high myopia remain an issue. Clinical trials have demonstrated that newer spectacle lens designs incorporating multiple segments, lenslets, or diffusion optics exhibit good efficacy. Clinical considerations and factors influencing efficacy for soft multifocal contact lenses and orthokeratology are discussed. Topical atropine remains the only widely accessible pharmacologic treatment. Rebound observed with higher concentration of atropine is not evident with lower concentrations or optical interventions. Overall, myopia control treatments show little adverse effect on visual function and appear generally safe, with longer wear times and combination therapies maximizing outcomes. An emerging category of light-based therapies for children requires comprehensive safety data to enable risk versus benefit analysis. Given the success of myopia control strategies, the ethics of including a control arm in clinical trials is heavily debated. IMI recommendations for clinical trial protocols are discussed.

The relationship between myopia progression and axial elongation in children wearing orthokeratology contact lenses

PURPOSE

To investigate the relationship between myopia progression and axial length (AL) elongation in orthokeratology (ortho-k) patients.

METHODS

This study investigated 184 patients (baseline age 9.0 ± 1.6 years), who underwent overnight ortho-k treatment for 12 to 72 months, and stopped lens wear for 1 to 2 months. Refractive sphere and cylinder after cycloplegia, corneal curvatures along both meridians, and AL were compared before the commencement and after discontinuation of ortho-k treatment. The effects of AL change, baseline AL, corneal curvature change, baseline age, and duration of ortho-k treatment on the change in spherical equivalent refractive error (SER) were analysed.

RESULTS

Myopia significantly progressed and AL increased following 32.8 ± 13.0 months of ortho-k lens wear and 1 to 2 months washout period, as compared to baseline (all P < 0.001). Corneal curvature along the flat meridian (FK) became significantly flatter (P < 0.001) and corneal curvature along the steep meridian (SK) became steeper (P = 0.036). In the first stepwise multiple linear regression model (R² = 0.696), the change in SER over time (ΔSER) is significantly correlated to the change in AL (ΔAL, P < 0.001), baseline AL (P < 0.001), baseline age (P = 0.028), change in SK (P = 0.002), and the duration of ortho-k lens treatment before discontinuation (P = 0.010). In a more simplified model (R² = 0.628), the regression equation using ΔAL to predict ΔSER is: ΔSER = -0.094-1.608*ΔAL.

CONCLUSIONS

The change in SER was significantly correlated to the change in AL, change in SK, baseline AL, baseline age, and the duration of treatment among children undergoing ortho-k therapy. The ratio of axial elongation to myopia progression was approximately 1:1.6 between the ages of 6 to 14 years. A simplified equation was derived for clinical use to estimate myopia progression from repeated AL measurement in ortho-k patients.

Factors associated with faster axial elongation after orthokeratology treatment

Background

To study the baseline factors that related to faster axial elongation after orthokeratology (OK) treatment and the characteristics of cases with axial length decrease in a group of myopia children.

Methods

This is a retrospective study. The records of 73 children who had wear OK lens for at least one year were reviewed. Only the data of right eyes were included. Baseline data included: age, gender, parental myopia, refractive error, corneal power, central corneal thickness, axial length and anterior chamber depth. Corneal power, central corneal thickness, anterior chamber depth and axial length after one-year of OK lens wear were also collected. The related factors affecting axial length change were analyzed. A comparison was made on the cases of axial length increase and axial length decrease.

Results

Of the 73 eyes, axial length increased by 0.18 ± 0.17 mm (P < 0.001) after one year of OK lens wear. Correlation analysis showed that one-year axial length change was negatively correlated with age and positively correlated with the parental myopia and baseline myopia. Stepwise multiple linear regression analysis showed that the factors associated with faster axial elongation were lower baseline myopic spherical equivalent (P = 0.018), higher parental myopia degree (P = 0.026), and younger age at the onset of lens wear. (P = 0.039). Nine eyes showed negative axial growth (−0.06 ± 0.04 mm), and had older initial age of lens wear, higher baseline myopic spherical equivalent, and lager baseline corneal power, when compared with cases of axial length increase.

Conclusions

Myopia children with lower baseline myopic spherical equivalent, younger initial age and higher parental myopia had faster axial elongation after orthokeratology treatment. More aggressive treatment should be considered. In children with slow axial elongation, OK lens wear may lead to negative axial growth. Whether there are reasons other than central corneal thinning and choroidal thickening needs further study.