Low incidence of HCC in chronic hepatitis C patients with pretreatment liver stiffness measurements below 17.5 kilopascal who achieve SVR following DAAs

Prediction of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in a Portuguese Population after Hepatitis C Cure: Comparative Accuracy of Noninvasive Tests (Transient Elastography, FIB-4, and aMAP)

<b><i>Introduction:</i></b> Chronic infection with hepatitis C virus (HCV) causes 25% of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) cases worldwide, a major cause of morbimortality even after sustained virologic response (SVR). Universal screening to all patients with advanced liver fibrosis is currently recommended. A risk-based strategy could improve the detection rate of early HCC and diminish the surveillance burden. Although several risk prediction models exist, exclusion of a subgroup of patients from surveillance has not yet been recommended. The objective of this study was the comparison of the predictive accuracy of transient elastography, FIB-4, and aMAP for HCC in HCV patients after SVR in Portugal. <b><i>Methods:</i></b> This was a multicentric retrospective study including patients with HCV after SVR. Comparative, univariate, multivariate, area under the ROC (receiver-operating characteristic) curve (AUC), and Youden’s J-statistic analysis were performed. <b><i>Results:</i></b> HCC incidence was 4.2% (1.3/100 patient-years) after a median follow-up of 31 months with inclusion of 337 patients. All patients had a liver stiffness measurement (LSM) before SVR (considered the baseline), but only 148 (43.9%) had a transient elastography after SVR. FIB-4 and aMAP post-SVR were calculated in all patients. Multiple parameters positively correlated with HCC, but only age and baseline transient elastography remained as independent predictors in the multivariate analysis. The optimal cutoffs for prediction of HCC were baseline transient elastography 13.7 kPa, post-SVR transient elastography 16.5 and 15.8 kPa (first and last measurements, respectively), FIB-4 1.6, and aMAP 58. Baseline transient elastography revealed a fair accuracy in predicting HCC (AUC 0.776, <i>p</i> &lt; 0.001), with the cutoff of 13.7 kPa presenting a sensitivity of 85% and a specificity of 69%. Regarding patients who were F3–4 at baseline (<i>n</i> = 162), almost one-third had a baseline LSM ≤13.7 kPa (<i>n</i> = 51, 31.5%), an FIB-4 ≤1.6 (<i>n</i> = 50, 30.9%), and an aMAP score ≤58 (<i>n</i> = 48, 29.6%), and these cutoffs presented an NPV of 98%, 94%, and 96%, respectively, when considering HCC development. <b><i>Conclusion:</i></b> Transient elastography (FibroScan) before SVR was a fair predictor of HCC, being more accurate than FIB-4 and aMAP. Transient elastography values ≤13.7 kPa at baseline, FIB-4 ≤1.6 and aMAP ≤58 were the cutoffs considered of low risk for HCC in a Portuguese cohort of HCV patients after SVR with advanced fibrosis. aMAP score is a risk-based surveillance tool that could improve the current HCC screening strategy, but further validation is needed.

Spleen size change after hepatitis C treatment: a simple parameter to predict clinical outcomes

Portal hypertension contributes to splenomegaly in cirrhotic patients. Reduction in spleen size may represent improvement in portal hypertension. The goal was to determine whether reduction in spleen size following sustained virologic response (SVR) in patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) cirrhosis is associated with lower risk of liver-related adverse outcomes. A retrospective cohort study was performed regarding HCV-infected patients treated with direct-acting antiviral agents at the Iowa City Veterans Administration Medical Center between 2014 and 2019. Patients with cirrhosis and splenomegaly on baseline ultrasound were included. Spleen size, platelet counts, decompensations, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) status, and mortality were recorded through July 31, 2021. Decrease in spleen size ≥1.5 cm was regarded as significant. Intergroup comparisons were performed on SPSS 28. Eighty patients with cirrhosis and splenomegaly before SVR were identified. Spleen sizes decreased significantly after SVR in 31 patients over a median of 1 year (Group A), whereas 49 patients did not meet this endpoint (Group B). Lack of spleen size reduction was associated with the presence of varices before SVR (odds ratio (OR): 5.3, p < 0.01). Group A had significantly greater increases in platelet count after SVR than did Group B. Patients in Group B had greater risk of HCC (OR: 9.7, CI: 1.2-79; p = 0.03) and death (OR: 3.6, CI: 1.1-12; p = 0.04). Reduced spleen size in patients with HCV cirrhosis after SVR is associated with greater increment in platelet count, decreased risk of HCC, and reduced mortality compared to patients whose spleen size does not decrease.

Comparing Predictability of Non-invasive Tools for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Treated Chronic Hepatitis C Patients

BACKGROUND

Non-invasive tools including liver stiffness measurement (LSM) or FIB-4, assessed before or after direct acting antivirals (DAA), have been suggested to predict hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

AIMS

This study aims to compare predictability of HCC by these methods at different time points, to validate the HCC surveillance suggestion by guidelines, and to propose personalized strategy.

METHODS

Chronic hepatitis C whose LSM and FIB-4 were available at pretherapy and after sustained virological response (SVR) were enrolled. Advanced chronic liver disease (ACLD) was defined as pretherapy LSM ≥ 10 kPa or FIB-4 index ≥ 3.25 or ultrasound signs of cirrhosis plus platelet count < 150,000/μL. The predictabilities were compared by area under ROC. The cumulative HCC incidences were calculated by Kaplan-Meier analysis.

RESULTS

Among 466 ACLD patients, 40 patients developed HCC during a follow-up duration of 26.8 months. Comparable predictive performances for HCC between LSM and FIB-4 at pretherapy and SVR were noted. By guidelines suggestion using pretherapy LSM = 10 kPa (advanced fibrosis) and 13 kPa (cirrhosis) for risk stratification, the annual HCC incidences of those with LSM of < 10, 10-12.9 and ≥ 13 kPa were 1.1, 3.6, and 5.0%, respectively. Combination of baseline LSM < 12 kPa and SVR FIB-4 < 3.7 could further stratify relatively low risk of HCC in ACLD patients of annal incidence of 1.2%.

CONCLUSIONS

ACLD patients who met advanced fibrosis but not cirrhosis by guidelines' cut-offs still posed high risk of HCC. Baseline LSM with SVR FIB-4 can be applied to stratify low, intermediate, and high risk of HCC for personalizing surveillance strategies after SVR.

Combined Liver Stiffness and Α-fetoprotein Further beyond the Sustained Virologic Response Visit as Predictors of Long-Term Liver-Related Events in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis C

AIMS

Long-term risk stratification using combined liver stiffness (LS) and clinically relevant blood tests acquired at the baseline further beyond the sustained virologic response (SVR) visit for chronic hepatitis C (CHC) has not been thoroughly investigated. This study retrospectively investigated the prognostics of liver-related events (LREs) further beyond the SVR visit.

METHODS

Cox regression and random forest models identified the key factors, including longitudinal LS and noninvasive test results, that could predict LREs, including hepatocellular carcinoma, during prespecified follow-ups from 2010 to 2021. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis estimated the significance of between-group risk stratification.

RESULTS

Of the entire eligible cohort (n = 520) of CHC patients with SVR to antiviral therapy, 28 (5.4%) patients developed post-SVR LREs over a median follow-up period of 6.1 years (interquartile range = 3.5-8.7). The multivariate Cox regression analysis identified two significant predictors of LREs after the year 3 post-SVR (Y3PSVR) baseline (LRE, n = 15 of 28, 53.6%, median follow-up = 4.1 [1.6-6.4] years after Y3PSVR): LS at Y3PSVR (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 3.980, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.085-7.597, P < 0.001), and α-fetoprotein (AFP) at Y3PSVR (aHR = 1.017, 95% CI = 1.001-1.034, P=0.034). LS ≥1.45 m/s and AFP ≥3.00 ng/mL for Y3PSVR yielded positive likelihood ratios of 4.24 and 2.62, respectively. Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed that among the stratified subgroups, the subgroup with concurrent LS ≥1.45 m/s and AFP ≥3.00 ng/mL at Y3PSVR exhibited the highest risk of LREs after Y3PSVR (log-rank P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

We recommend the combined use of concurrent LS and AFP in future prediction models for LREs in CHC. Patients with concurrently high LS and AFP values further beyond the SVR visit may require a recall policy involving intense surveillance.

Hepatitis C virus: A critical approach to who really needs treatment

Introduction of effective drugs in the treatment of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection has prompted the World Health Organization to declare a global eradication target by 2030. Propositions have been made to screen the general population and treat all HCV carriers irrespective of the disease status. A year ago the new severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 virus appeared causing a worldwide pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 disease. Huge financial resources were redirected, and the pandemic became the first priority in every country. In this review, we examined the feasibility of the World Health Organization elimination program and the actual natural course of HCV infection. We also identified and analyzed certain comorbidity factors that may aggravate the progress of HCV and some marginalized subpopulations with characteristics favoring HCV dissemination. Alcohol consumption, HIV coinfection and the presence of components of metabolic syndrome including obesity, hyperuricemia and overt diabetes were comorbidities mostly responsible for increased liver-related morbidity and mortality of HCV. We also examined the significance of special subpopulations like people who inject drugs and males having sex with males. Finally, we proposed a different micro-elimination screening and treatment program that can be implemented in all countries irrespective of income. We suggest that screening and treatment of HCV carriers should be limited only in these particular groups.

Predicting Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk in Patients with Chronic HCV Infection and a Sustained Virological Response to Direct-Acting Antivirals

Chronic infection with hepatitis C virus (HCV) may complicate with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), especially in patients with cirrhosis. Although the achievement of a sustained virological response (SVR) had been associated with a reduction in the risk of HCC already in the Interferon era, some concerns initially raised following the use of direct-acting antivirals (DAA), as their use was associated with increased risk of HCC development and aggressiveness. However, studies demonstrated that the risk of HCC was strongly influenced by pre-treatment fibrosis stage and, eventually, prior HCC history more than the type of antiviral therapy. According to published studies, rates of de-novo HCC ranged between 1.4% and 13.6% in patients with cirrhosis or advanced fibrosis vs 0.9% and 5.9% in those with chronic hepatitis C (CHC). Conversely, rates of recurrent HCC were higher, ranging between 3.2% and 49% in cirrhotics vs 0% and 40% in CHC patients. Most studies tried to identify predictors of HCC development, either de-novo or recurrent, and some authors were also able to build predictive scores for HCC risk stratification, which however still need prospective validation. Whereas some clinical features, such as age, gender, presence of comorbidities and fibrosis stage, may influence both de-novo and recurrent HCC, previous tumour burden before DAA seems to prevail over these features in recurrent HCC risk prediction.