Predicting the current and future distribution of the western black-legged tick, Ixodes pacificus, across the Western US using citizen science collections

Mapping Ixodes pacificus and Borrelia burgdorferi Habitat Suitability Under Current and Mid-Century Climate in the Pacific Northwest (BC and WA)

Introduction: Lyme disease is the most common vector-borne disease in the United States and Canada. The primary vector for the causative agent of Lyme disease, Borrelia burgdorferi, in the Pacific Northwest is the western blacklegged tick, Ixodes pacificus. Materials and Methods: Using active tick surveillance data from British Columbia, Canada, and Washington State, USA, habitat suitability models using MaxEnt (maximum entropy) were developed for I. pacificus to predict its current and mid-century geographic distributions. Passive surveillance data both from BC and WA were also visualized. Results: According to the constructed models, the number of frost-free days during the winter is the most relevant predictor of its habitat suitability, followed by summer climate moisture, ecoregion, and mean minimum fall temperature. The ensemble geographic distribution map predicts that the coastal regions and inland valleys of British Columbia and the Puget Lowlands of Washington State provide the most suitable habitats for I. pacificus. The density map of ticks submitted from passive surveillance data was overlaid on the current distribution map and demonstrates the correlation between numbers of submissions and habitat suitability. Mid-century projections, based on current climate change predictions, indicate a range expansion, especially of low and moderate suitability, from current distribution. Regarding Lyme disease risk, I. pacificus identified from both active and passive surveillance and tested positive for B. burgdorferi were found to be in areas of moderate to very high suitability for I. pacificus. Conclusion: According to developed models, the total suitable habitat area for I. pacificus will expand in the interior regions of British Columbia and Washington State. However, the risk remains small given relatively low infection rates among I. pacificus. Further studies are required to better understand how this might change in the future.

Metatranscriptomic investigation of single Ixodes pacificus ticks reveals diverse microbes, viruses, and novel mRNA-like endogenous viral elements

Ticks are increasingly important vectors of human and agricultural diseases. While many studies have focused on tick-borne bacteria, far less is known about tick-associated viruses and their roles in public health or tick physiology. To address this, we investigated patterns of bacterial and viral communities across two field populations of western black-legged ticks (Ixodes pacificus). Through metatranscriptomic analysis of 100 individual ticks, we quantified taxon prevalence, abundance, and co-occurrence with other members of the tick microbiome. In addition to commonly found tick-associated microbes, we assembled 11 novel RNA virus genomes from Rhabdoviridae, Chuviridae, Picornaviridae, Phenuiviridae, Reoviridae, Solemovidiae, Narnaviridae and two highly divergent RNA virus genomes lacking sequence similarity to any known viral families. We experimentally verified the presence of these in I. pacificus ticks across several life stages. We also unexpectedly identified numerous virus-like transcripts that are likely encoded by tick genomic DNA, and which are distinct from known endogenous viral element-mediated immunity pathways in invertebrates. Taken together, our work reveals that I. pacificus ticks carry a greater diversity of viruses than previously appreciated, in some cases resulting in evolutionarily acquired virus-like transcripts. Our findings highlight how pervasive and intimate tick-virus interactions are, with major implications for both the fundamental biology and vectorial capacity of I. pacificus ticks.

IMPORTANCE

Ticks are increasingly important vectors of disease, particularly in the United States where expanding tick ranges and intrusion into previously wild areas has resulted in increasing human exposure to ticks. Emerging human pathogens have been identified in ticks at an increasing rate, and yet little is known about the full community of microbes circulating in various tick species, a crucial first step to understanding how they interact with each and their tick host, as well as their ability to cause disease in humans. We investigated the bacterial and viral communities of the Western blacklegged tick in California and found 11 previously uncharacterized viruses circulating in this population.

Forensic parasitology: a new frontier in criminalistics

Parasites are ubiquitous, diverse, and have close interactions with humans and other animals. Despite this, they have not garnered significant interest from forensic scientists, and their utility as indicators in criminal investigations has been largely overlooked. To foster the development of forensic parasitology we explore the utility of parasites as forensic indicators in five broad areas: (i) wildlife trafficking and exploitation, (ii) biological attacks, (iii) sex crimes, (iv) criminal neglect of humans and other animals, and (v) indicators of movement and travel. To encourage the development and growth of forensic parasitology as a field, we lay out a four-step roadmap to increase the use and utility of parasites in criminal investigations.

History of the geographic distribution of the western blacklegged tick, Ixodes pacificus, in the United States

Ixodes pacificus (the western blacklegged tick) occurs in the far western United States (US), where it commonly bites humans. This tick was not considered a species of medical concern until it was implicated in the 1980s as a vector of Lyme disease spirochetes. Later, it was discovered to also be the primary vector to humans in the far western US of agents causing anaplasmosis and hard tick relapsing fever. The core distribution of I. pacificus in the US includes California, western Oregon, and western Washington, with outlier populations reported in Utah and Arizona. In this review, we provide a history of the documented occurrence of I. pacificus in the US from the 1890s to present, and discuss associations of its geographic range with landscape, hosts, and climate. In contrast to Ixodes scapularis (the blacklegged tick) in the eastern US, there is no evidence for a dramatic change in the geographic distribution of I. pacificus over the last half-century. Field surveys in the 1930s and 1940s documented I. pacificus along the Pacific Coast from southern California to northern Washington, in the Sierra Nevada foothills, and in western Utah. County level collection records often included both immatures and adults of I. pacificus, recovered by drag sampling or from humans, domestic animals, and wildlife. The estimated geographic distribution presented for I. pacificus in 1945 by Bishopp and Trembley is similar to that presented in 2022 by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. There is no clear evidence of range expansion for I. pacificus, separate from tick records in new areas that could have resulted from newly initiated or intensified surveillance efforts. Moreover, there is no evidence from long-term studies that the density of questing I. pacificus ticks has increased over time in specific areas. It therefore is not surprising that the incidence of Lyme disease has remained stable in the Pacific Coast states from the early 1990s, when it became a notifiable condition, to present. We note that deforestation and deer depredation were less severe in the far western US during the 1800s and early 1900s compared to the eastern US. This likely contributed to I. pacificus maintaining stable, widespread populations across its geographic range in the far western US in the early 1900s, while I. scapularis during the same time period appears to have been restricted to a small number of geographically isolated refugia sites within its present range in the eastern US. The impact that a warming climate may have had on the geographic distribution and local abundance of I. pacificus in recent decades remains unclear.

Self-reported tick exposure as an indicator of Lyme disease risk in an endemic region of Quebec, Canada

BACKGROUND

Lyme disease (LD) and other tick-borne diseases are emerging across Canada. Spatial and temporal LD risk is typically estimated using acarological surveillance and reported human cases, the former not considering human behavior leading to tick exposure and the latter occurring after infection.

OBJECTIVES

The primary objective was to explore, at the census subdivision level (CSD), the associations of self-reported tick exposure, alternative risk indicators (predicted tick density, eTick submissions, public health risk level), and ecological variables (Ixodes scapularis habitat suitability index and cumulative degree days > 0 °C) with incidence proportion of LD. A secondary objective was to explore which of these predictor variables were associated with self-reported tick exposure at the CSD level.

METHODS

Self-reported tick exposure was measured in a cross-sectional populational health survey conducted in 2018, among 10,790 respondents living in 116 CSDs of the Estrie region, Quebec, Canada. The number of reported LD cases per CSD in 2018 was obtained from the public health department. Generalized linear mixed-effets models accounting for spatial autocorrelation were built to fulfill the objectives.

RESULTS

Self-reported tick exposure ranged from 0.0 % to 61.5 % (median 8.9 %) and reported LD incidence rates ranged from 0 to 324 cases per 100,000 person-years, per CSD. A positive association was found between self-reported tick exposure and LD incidence proportion (ß = 0.08, CI = 0.04,0.11, p < 0.0001). The best-fit model included public health risk level (AIC: 144.2), followed by predicted tick density, ecological variables, self-reported tick exposure and eTick submissions (AIC: 158.4, 158.4, 160.4 and 170.1 respectively). Predicted tick density was the only significant predictor of self-reported tick exposure (ß = 0.83, CI = 0.16,1.50, p = 0.02).

DISCUSSION

This proof-of-concept study explores self-reported tick exposure as a potential indicator of LD risk using populational survey data. This approach may offer a low-cost and simple tool for evaluating LD risk and deserves further evaluation.

Assessing the Influence of Climate Change and Environmental Factors on the Top Tick-Borne Diseases in the United States: A Systematic Review

In the United States (US), tick-borne diseases (TBDs) have more than doubled in the past fifteen years and are a major contributor to the overall burden of vector-borne diseases. The most common TBDs in the US-Lyme disease, rickettsioses (including Rocky Mountain spotted fever), and anaplasmosis-have gradually shifted in recent years, resulting in increased morbidity and mortality. In this systematic review, we examined climate change and other environmental factors that have influenced the epidemiology of these TBDs in the US while highlighting the opportunities for a One Health approach to mitigating their impact. We searched Medline Plus, PUBMED, and Google Scholar for studies focused on these three TBDs in the US from January 2018 to August 2023. Data selection and extraction were completed using Covidence, and the risk of bias was assessed with the ROBINS-I tool. The review included 84 papers covering multiple states across the US. We found that climate, seasonality and temporality, and land use are important environmental factors that impact the epidemiology and patterns of TBDs. The emerging trends, influenced by environmental factors, emphasize the need for region-specific research to aid in the prediction and prevention of TBDs.

Collaborative Modeling of the Tick-Borne Disease Social-Ecological System: A Conceptual Framework

Hard-bodied ticks have become a major concern in temperate regions because they transmit a variety of pathogens of medical significance. Ticks and pathogens interact with hosts in a complex social-ecological system (SES) that influences human exposure to tick-borne diseases (TBD). We argue that addressing the urgent public health threat posed by TBD requires an understanding of the integrated processes in the forest ecosystem that influence tick density and infection prevalence, transmission among ticks, animal hosts, and ultimately disease prevalence in humans. We argue that collaborative modeling of the human-tick SES is required to understand the system dynamics as well as move science toward policy action. Recent studies in human health have shown the importance of stakeholder participation in understanding the factors that contribute to human exposure to zoonotic diseases. We discuss how collaborative modeling can be applied to understand the impacts of forest management practices on ticks and TBD. We discuss the potential of collaborative modeling for encouraging participation of diverse stakeholders in discussing the implications of managing forest ticks in the absence of large-scale control policy.

Public Health Readiness for Citizen Science: Health Department Experiences

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to examine the experiences of US health departments with citizen science.

DESIGN

In 2019, we conducted a national survey of 272 local health department (LHD) representatives about knowledge and attitudes, readiness, experiences, and barriers related to citizen science (response rate = 45%).

SETTING

LHDs in the United States in 2019.

PARTICIPANTS

LHD representatives.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Knowledge and attitudes, readiness, experiences, and barriers related to citizen science.

RESULTS

Sixty-two percent of respondents reported LHD experience with citizen science in areas such as health promotion, emergency preparedness, and environmental health. LHDs in large jurisdictions (78%) were more likely to report staff familiarity with citizen science than small (51%) and medium (59%) jurisdictions ( P = .01). Although 64% reported readiness for citizen science, only 32% reported readiness for community-led activities. We found that LHDs use citizen science more for community engagement activities, such as public education, than data collection activities. Respondents indicated that staff education and training in citizen science methods, funding, and partners with relevant expertise were priority needs.

CONCLUSION

LHDs have leveraged citizen science for community engagement, but barriers to technical uses remain.

Ecological Niche Modelling Approaches: Challenges and Applications in Vector-Borne Diseases

Vector-borne diseases (VBDs) pose a major threat to human and animal health, with more than 80% of the global population being at risk of acquiring at least one major VBD. Being profoundly affected by the ongoing climate change and anthropogenic disturbances, modelling approaches become an essential tool to assess and compare multiple scenarios (past, present and future), and further the geographic risk of transmission of VBDs. Ecological niche modelling (ENM) is rapidly becoming the gold-standard method for this task. The purpose of this overview is to provide an insight of the use of ENM to assess the geographic risk of transmission of VBDs. We have summarised some fundamental concepts and common approaches to ENM of VBDS, and then focused with a critical view on a number of crucial issues which are often disregarded when modelling the niches of VBDs. Furthermore, we have briefly presented what we consider the most relevant uses of ENM when dealing with VBDs. Niche modelling of VBDs is far from being simple, and there is still a long way to improve. Therefore, this overview is expected to be a useful benchmark for niche modelling of VBDs in future research.

Surveillance of Rocky Mountain wood ticks (Dermacentor andersoni) and American dog ticks (Dermacentor variabilis) in Colorado

Ticks pose an emerging threat of infectious pathogen transmission in the United States in part due to expanding suitable habitat ranges in the wake of climate change. Active and passive tick surveillance can inform maps of tick distributions to warn the public of their risk of exposure to ticks. In Colorado, widespread active surveillance programs have difficulty due to the state's diverse terrain. However, combining multiple citizen science techniques can create a more accurate representation of tick distribution than any passive surveillance dataset alone. Our study uses county-level tick distribution data from Northern Arizona University, the Colorado Department of Public Health and the Environment, and veterinary surveillance in addition to literature data to assess the distribution of the Rocky Mountain wood tick, Dermacentor andersoni, and the American dog tick, Dermacentor variabilis. We found that D. andersoni for the most part inhabits counties at higher elevations than D. variabilis in Colorado.

Northward Expansion of Amblyomma americanum (Acari: Ixodidae) into Southwestern Michigan

Amblyomma americanum (Linnaeus) (Acari: Ixodidae) (lone star tick) is an aggressive, generalist parasite that vectors numerous important human and animal pathogens. In recent decades its geographic range has expanded northwards from endemic regions in the southeastern and southcentral United States. In 2019 five questing A. americanum ticks, comprising two life stages were detected at one site in southwestern Michigan, satisfying one CDC criterium for an established population for the first time in recent history in the state. To better characterize the extent of emerging A. americanum, we conducted active surveillance (i.e., drag sampling) in summer 2020 throughout Michigan's southern counties and detected one adult A. americanum from each of six widespread sites, including where they had been detected in 2019. A larger established population was identified at another site in Berrien County, which yielded 691 A. americanum comprising three life stages, and questing phenologies here were similar to that reported for other endemic regions. Statewide surveillance in 2021 revealed no A. americanum outside of Berrien County, but establishment criteria were met again at the two sites where established populations were first detected respectively in 2019 and 2020. These observations may represent the successful invasion of A. americanum into Michigan. Data from passive (1999-2020) and active surveillance (2004-2021) efforts, including a domestic animal sentinel program (2015-2018), are reported to provide context for this nascent invasion. Continued active surveillance is needed to help inform the public, medical professionals, and public health officials of the health risks associated with this vector.

Modeling Geographic Uncertainty in Current and Future Habitat for Potential Populations of Ixodes pacificus (Acari: Ixodidae) in Alaska

Ixodes pacificus Cooley & Kohls is the primary vector of Lyme disease spirochetes to humans in the western United States. Although not native to Alaska, this tick species has recently been found on domestic animals in the state. Ixodes pacificus has a known native range within the western contiguous United States and southwest Canada; therefore, it is not clear if introduced individuals can successfully survive and reproduce in the high-latitude climate of Alaska. To identify areas of suitable habitat within Alaska for I. pacificus, we used model parameters from two existing sets of ensemble habitat distribution models calibrated in the contiguous United States. To match the model input covariates, we calculated climatic and land cover covariates for the present (1980-2014) and future (2070-2100) climatologies in Alaska. The present-day habitat suitability maps suggest that the climate and land cover in Southeast Alaska and portions of Southcentral Alaska could support the establishment of I. pacificus populations. Future forecasts suggest an increase in suitable habitat with considerable uncertainty for many areas of the state. Repeated introductions of this non-native tick to Alaska increase the likelihood that resident populations could become established.

Collaborating With Community Scientists Across Arkansas to Update Tick Distributions and Pathogen Prevalence of Spotted Fever Group Rickettsia and Ehrlichia

Tick-borne diseases (TBD) in humans have dramatically increased over recent years and although the bulk of cases are attributable to Lyme Disease in the Northeastern US, TBDs like spotted fever rickettsiosis and ehrlichiosis heavily impact other parts of the country, namely the mid-south. Understanding tick and pathogen distributions and prevalence traditionally requires active surveillance, which quickly becomes logistically and financially unrealistic as the geographic area of focus increases. We report on a community science effort to survey ticks across Arkansas to obtain updated data on tick distributions and prevalence of human tick-borne disease-causing pathogens in the most commonly encountered ticks. During a 20-mo period, Arkansans submitted 9,002 ticks from 71 of the 75 counties in the state. Amblyomma americanum was the most common tick species received, accounting for 76% of total tick submissions. Nearly 6,000 samples were screened for spotted fever group Rickettsia (SFGR) and Ehrlichia, resulting in general prevalence rates of 37.4 and 5.1%, respectively. In addition, 145 ticks (2.5%) were infected with both SFGR and Ehrlichia. Arkansas Department of Health reported 2,281 spotted fever and 380 ehrlichiosis cases during the same period as our tick collections. Since known SFGR vectors Dermacentor variabilis and Amblyomma maculatum were not the most common ticks submitted, nor did they have the highest prevalence rates of SFGR, it appears that other tick species play the primary role in infecting humans with SFGR. Our investigation demonstrated the utility of community science to efficiently and economically survey ticks and identify vector-borne disease risk in Arkansas.

Ecology of Ixodes pacificus Ticks and Associated Pathogens in the Western United States

Lyme disease is the most important vector-borne disease in the United States and is increasing in incidence and geographic range. In the Pacific west, the western black-legged tick, Ixodes pacificus Cooley and Kohls, 1943 is an important vector of the causative agent of Lyme disease, the spirochete, Borrelia burgdorferi. Ixodes pacificus life cycle is expected to be more than a year long, and all three stages (larva, nymph, and adult) overlap in spring. The optimal habitat consists of forest cover, cooler temperatures, and annual precipitation in the range of 200–500 mm. Therefore, the coastal areas of California, Oregon, and Washington are well suited for these ticks. Immature stages commonly parasitize Western fence lizards (Sceloporus occidentalis) and gray squirrels (Sciurus griseus), while adults often feed on deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus) and black-tailed deer (Odocoileus h. columbianus). Ixodes pacificus carry several pathogens of human significance, such as Borrelia burgdorferi, Bartonella, and Rickettsiales. These pathogens are maintained in the environment by many hosts, including small mammals, birds, livestock, and domestic animals. Although a great deal of work has been carried out on Ixodes ticks and the pathogens they transmit, understanding I. pacificus ecology outside California still lags. Additionally, the dynamic vector–host–pathogen system means that new factors will continue to arise and shift the epidemiological patterns within specific areas. Here, we review the ecology of I. pacificus and the pathogens this tick is known to carry to identify gaps in our knowledge.

Estimating disease vector population size from citizen science data

Citizen science projects have the potential to address hypotheses requiring extremely large datasets that cannot be collected with the financial and labour constraints of most scientific projects. Data collection by the general public could expand the scope of scientific enquiry if these data accurately capture the system under study. However, data collection inconsistencies by the untrained public may result in biased datasets that do not accurately represent the natural world. In this paper, we harness the availability of scientific and public datasets of the Lyme disease tick vector to identify and account for biases in citizen science tick collections. Estimates of tick abundance from the citizen science dataset correspond moderately with estimates from direct surveillance but exhibit consistent biases. These biases can be mitigated by including factors that may impact collector participation or effort in statistical models, which, in turn, result in more accurate estimates of tick population sizes. Accounting for collection biases within large-scale, public participation datasets could update species abundance maps and facilitate using the wealth of citizen science data to answer scientific questions at scales that are not feasible with traditional datasets.

Crowdsourced Tick Image-Informed Updates to U.S. County Records of Three Medically Important Tick Species

Burgeoning cases of tick-borne disease present a significant public health problem in the United States. Passive tick surveillance gained traction as an effective way to collect epidemiologic data, and in particular, photograph-based tick surveillance can complement in-hand tick specimen identification to amass distribution data and related encounter demographics. We compared the Federal Information Processing Standards (FIPS) code of tick photos submitted to a free public identification service (TickSpotters) from 2014 to 2019 to published nationwide county reports for three tick species of medical concern: Ixodes scapularis Say (Ixodida: Ixodidae), Ixodes pacificus Cooley and Kohls (Ixodida: Ixodidae), and Amblyomma americanum Linneaus (Ixodida: Ixodidae). We tallied the number of TickSpotters submissions for each tick species according to "Reported" or "Established" criteria per county, and found that TickSpotters submissions represented more than half of the reported counties of documented occurrence, and potentially identified hundreds of new counties with the occurrence of these species. We detected the largest number of new county reports of I. scapularis presence in Michigan, North Carolina, and Texas. Tick image submissions revealed potentially nine new counties of occurrence for I. pacificus, and we documented the largest increase in new county reports of A. americanum in Kentucky, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. These findings demonstrate the utility of crowdsourced photograph-based tick surveillance as a complement to other tick surveillance strategies in documenting tick distributions on a nationwide scale, its potential for identifying new foci, and its ability to highlight at-risk localities that might benefit from tick-bite prevention education.

Citizen Science Provides an Efficient Method for Broad-Scale Tick-Borne Pathogen Surveillance of Ixodes pacificus and Ixodes scapularis across the United States

Tick-borne diseases have expanded over the last 2 decades as a result of shifts in tick and pathogen distributions. These shifts have significantly increased the need for accurate portrayal of real-time pathogen distributions and prevalence in hopes of stemming increases in human morbidity. Traditionally, pathogen distribution and prevalence have been monitored through case reports or scientific collections of ticks or reservoir hosts, both of which have challenges that impact the extent, availability, and accuracy of these data. Citizen science tick collections and testing campaigns supplement these data and provide timely estimates of pathogen prevalence and distributions to help characterize and understand tick-borne disease threats to communities. We utilized our national citizen science tick collection and testing program to describe the distribution and prevalence of four Ixodes-borne pathogens, Borrelia burgdorferisensu lato, Borrelia miyamotoi, Anaplasma phagocytophilum, and Babesia microti, across the continental United States.

IMPORTANCE In the 21st century, zoonotic pathogens continue to emerge, while previously discovered pathogens continue to have changes within their distribution and prevalence. Monitoring these pathogens is resource intensive, requiring both field and laboratory support; thus, data sets are often limited within their spatial and temporal extents. Citizen science collections provide a method to harness the general public to collect samples, enabling real-time monitoring of pathogen distribution and prevalence.

Predicting the Potential Global Distribution of Amblyomma americanum (Acari: Ixodidae) under Near Current and Future Climatic Conditions, Using the Maximum Entropy Model

Amblyomma americanum (the lone star tick) is a pathogen vector, mainly from eastern North America, that bites humans. With global integration and climate change, some ticks that are currently confined to a certain place may begin to spread out; some reports have shown that they are undergoing rapid range expansion. The difference in the potential geographic distribution of A. americanum under current and future climatic conditions is dependent on environment variables such as temperature and precipitation, which can affect their survival. In this study, we used a maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to predict the potential geographic distribution of A. americanum. The MaxEnt model was calibrated at the native range of A. americanum using occurrence data and the current climatic conditions. Seven WorldClim climatic variables were selected by the jackknife method and tested in MaxEnt using different combinations of model feature class functions and regularization multiplier values. The best model was chosen based on the omission rate and the lowest Akaike information criterion. The resulting model was then projected onto the global scale using the current and future climate conditions modeled under four greenhouse gas emission scenarios.

Modeling future climate suitability for the western blacklegged tick, Ixodes pacificus, in California with an emphasis on land access and ownership

In the western United States, Ixodes pacificus Cooley & Kohls (Acari: Ixodidae) is the primary vector of the agents causing Lyme disease and granulocytic anaplasmosis in humans. The geographic distribution of the tick is associated with climatic variables that include temperature, precipitation, and humidity, and biotic factors such as the spatial distribution of its primary vertebrate hosts. Here, we explore (1) how climate change may alter the geographic distribution of I. pacificus in California, USA, during the 21^st century, and (2) the spatial overlap among predicted changes in tick habitat suitability, land access, and ownership. Maps of potential future suitability for I. pacificus were generated by applying climate-based species distribution models to a multi-model ensemble of climate change projections for the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 (moderate emission) and 8.5 (high emission) scenarios for two future periods: mid-century (2026-2045) and end-of-century (2086-2099). Areas climatically-suitable for I. pacificus are projected to expand by 23% (mid-century RCP 4.5) to 86% (end-of-century RCP 8.5) across California, compared to the historical period (1980-2014), with future estimates of total suitable land area ranging from about 88 to 133 thousand km², or up to about a third of California. Regions projected to have the largest area increases in suitability by end-of-century are in northwestern California and the south central and southern coastal ranges. Over a third of the future suitable habitat is on lands currently designated as open access (i.e. publicly available), and by 2100, the amount of these lands that are suitable habitat for I. pacificus is projected to more than double under the most extreme emissions scenario (from ~23,000 to >51,000 km²). Of this area, most is federally-owned (>45,000 km²). By the end of the century, 26% of all federal land in the state is predicted to be suitable habitat for I. pacificus. The resulting maps may facilitate regional planning and preparedness by informing public health and vector control decision-makers.