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Haas M, Lucic M, Pichler F, Brkic FF, Parzefall T, Riss D, Liu DT. Presentation Rates for Acute Pharyngitis in the Emergency Room Are Influenced by Extreme Weather Events. Otolaryngol Head Neck Surg 2024; 170:795-803. [PMID: 37943865 DOI: 10.1002/ohn.581] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/26/2023] [Revised: 06/04/2023] [Accepted: 10/22/2023] [Indexed: 11/12/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Extreme weather events are becoming more prevalent with the increasing pace of climate change. These events negatively impact human health and put considerable strain on health care resources, including emergency departments. Within otolaryngology, acute pharyngitis is a common reason for emergency room visits (ERV). Therefore, we aimed to investigate the impact of extreme meteorological conditions on ERV rates related to acute pharyngitis. STUDY DESIGN Retrospective time-series study. SETTING ERVs related to acute pharyngitis (n = 1511) were identified at a tertiary care hospital in Vienna, Austria, between 2015 and 2018. METHODS The effects of single-day and prolonged (3-day) extreme weather events on ERVs were analyzed using a distributed lag nonlinear model. Relative risk (RR) and cumulative relative risk (cRR) were calculated over a lag period of 14 days. RR refers to the risk for pharyngitis-related ERV at extreme conditions (1st, 5th, 95th, or 99th percentile) compared to the risk at median conditions. RESULTS Same-day RR (lag0) was elevated more than 3-fold after prolonged extremely low mean temperatures (P = .028). Furthermore, same-day RR after single-day and prolonged extremely high relative humidity was elevated by 51% (P = .024) and 46% (P = .036), respectively. Significant delayed effects on cRR were observed for extreme mean temperatures, relative humidity, and mean wind speeds within 8 days and for extreme atmospheric pressure within 14 days. CONCLUSION Extreme weather events impact ERV rates for acute pharyngitis. Extremely low temperatures, high relative humidity, high atmospheric pressure, and low and high wind speeds were risk-promoting factors.
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Affiliation(s)
- Markus Haas
- Department of Otorhinolaryngology, Head and Neck Surgery, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
| | - Mateo Lucic
- Department of Otorhinolaryngology, Head and Neck Surgery, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
| | - Franziska Pichler
- Department of Otorhinolaryngology, Head and Neck Surgery, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
| | - Faris F Brkic
- Department of Otorhinolaryngology, Head and Neck Surgery, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
| | - Thomas Parzefall
- Department of Otorhinolaryngology, Head and Neck Surgery, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
| | - Dominik Riss
- Department of Otorhinolaryngology, Head and Neck Surgery, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
| | - David T Liu
- Department of Otorhinolaryngology, Head and Neck Surgery, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
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Chen Z, Liu Y, Yue H, Chen J, Hu X, Zhou L, Liang B, Lin G, Qin P, Feng W, Wang D, Wu D. The role of meteorological factors on influenza incidence among children in Guangzhou China, 2019-2022. Front Public Health 2024; 11:1268073. [PMID: 38259781 PMCID: PMC10800649 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2023.1268073] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/27/2023] [Accepted: 12/15/2023] [Indexed: 01/24/2024] Open
Abstract
Objective Analyzing the epidemiological characteristics of influenza cases among children aged 0-17 years in Guangzhou from 2019 to 2022. Assessing the relationships between multiple meteorological factors and influenza, improving the early warning systems for influenza, and providing a scientific basis for influenza prevention and control measures. Methods The influenza data were obtained from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Meteorological data were provided by Guangdong Meteorological Service. Spearman correlation analysis was conducted to examine the relevance between meteorological factors and the number of influenza cases. Distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM) were used to explore the effects of meteorological factors on influenza incidence. Results The relationship between mean temperature, rainfall, sunshine hours, and influenza cases presented a wavy pattern. The correlation between relative humidity and influenza cases was illustrated by a U-shaped curve. When the temperature dropped below 13°C, Relative risk (RR) increased sharply with decreasing temperature, peaking at 5.7°C with an RR of 83.78 (95% CI: 25.52, 275.09). The RR was increased when the relative humidity was below 66% or above 79%, and the highest RR was 7.50 (95% CI: 22.92, 19.25) at 99%. The RR was increased exponentially when the rainfall exceeded 1,625 mm, reaching a maximum value of 2566.29 (95% CI: 21.85, 3558574.07) at the highest rainfall levels. Both low and high sunshine hours were associated with reduced incidence of influenza, and the lowest RR was 0.20 (95% CI: 20.08, 0.49) at 9.4 h. No significant difference of the meteorological factors on influenza was observed between males and females. The impacts of cumulative extreme low temperature and low relative humidity on influenza among children aged 0-3 presented protective effects and the 0-3 years group had the lowest RRs of cumulative extreme high relative humidity and rainfall. The highest RRs of cumulative extreme effect of all meteorological factors (expect sunshine hours) were observed in the 7-12 years group. Conclusion Temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, and sunshine hours can be used as important predictors of influenza in children to improve the early warning system of influenza. Extreme weather reduces the risk of influenza in the age group of 0-3 years, but significantly increases the risk for those aged 7-12 years.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhitao Chen
- Department of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Yanhui Liu
- Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China
- School of Public Health, Institute of Public Health, Guangzhou Medical University and Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China
| | - Haiyan Yue
- Guangzhou Meteorological Observatory, Guangzhou, China
| | - Jinbin Chen
- Guangzhou Key Laboratory for Clinical Rapid Diagnosis and Early Warning of Infectious Diseases, KingMed School of Laboratory Medicine, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China
| | - Xiangzhi Hu
- Department of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Lijuan Zhou
- Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China
- School of Public Health, Institute of Public Health, Guangzhou Medical University and Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China
| | - Boheng Liang
- Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China
- School of Public Health, Institute of Public Health, Guangzhou Medical University and Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China
| | - Guozhen Lin
- Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China
- School of Public Health, Institute of Public Health, Guangzhou Medical University and Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China
| | - Pengzhe Qin
- Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China
- School of Public Health, Institute of Public Health, Guangzhou Medical University and Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China
| | - Wenru Feng
- Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China
- School of Public Health, Institute of Public Health, Guangzhou Medical University and Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China
| | - Dedong Wang
- Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China
- School of Public Health, Institute of Public Health, Guangzhou Medical University and Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China
| | - Di Wu
- Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China
- School of Public Health, Institute of Public Health, Guangzhou Medical University and Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China
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Madewell ZJ, Wang L, Dean NE, Zhang H, Wang Y, Zhang X, Liu W, Yang W, Longini IM, Gao GF, Li Z, Fang L, Yang Y. Interactions among acute respiratory viruses in Beijing, Chongqing, Guangzhou, and Shanghai, China, 2009-2019. Influenza Other Respir Viruses 2023; 17:e13212. [PMID: 37964991 PMCID: PMC10640964 DOI: 10.1111/irv.13212] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/10/2023] [Revised: 09/27/2023] [Accepted: 09/29/2023] [Indexed: 11/16/2023] Open
Abstract
Background A viral infection can modify the risk to subsequent viral infections via cross-protective immunity, increased immunopathology, or disease-driven behavioral change. There is limited understanding of virus-virus interactions due to lack of long-term population-level data. Methods Our study leverages passive surveillance data of 10 human acute respiratory viruses from Beijing, Chongqing, Guangzhou, and Shanghai collected during 2009 to 2019: influenza A and B viruses; respiratory syncytial virus A and B; human parainfluenza virus (HPIV), adenovirus, metapneumovirus (HMPV), coronavirus, bocavirus (HBoV), and rhinovirus (HRV). We used a multivariate Bayesian hierarchical model to evaluate correlations in monthly prevalence of test-positive samples between virus pairs, adjusting for potential confounders. Results Of 101,643 lab-tested patients, 33,650 tested positive for any acute respiratory virus, and 4,113 were co-infected with multiple viruses. After adjusting for intrinsic seasonality, long-term trends and multiple comparisons, Bayesian multivariate modeling found positive correlations for HPIV/HRV in all cities and for HBoV/HRV and HBoV/HMPV in three cities. Models restricted to children further revealed statistically significant associations for another ten pairs in three of the four cities. In contrast, no consistent correlation across cities was found among adults. Most virus-virus interactions exhibited substantial spatial heterogeneity. Conclusions There was strong evidence for interactions among common respiratory viruses in highly populated urban settings. Consistent positive interactions across multiple cities were observed in viruses known to typically infect children. Future intervention programs such as development of combination vaccines may consider spatially consistent virus-virus interactions for more effective control.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zachary J. Madewell
- Department of Biostatistics, College of Public Health and Health Professions & Emerging Pathogens InstituteUniversity of FloridaGainesvilleFloridaUSA
| | - Li‐Ping Wang
- Division of Infectious DiseaseKey Laboratory of Surveillance and Early‐Warning on Infectious Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionBeijingChina
| | - Natalie E. Dean
- Department of Biostatistics and BioinformaticsEmory UniversityAtlantaGeorgiaUSA
| | - Hai‐Yang Zhang
- State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and BiosecurityBeijing Institute of Microbiology and EpidemiologyBeijingChina
| | - Yi‐Fei Wang
- State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and BiosecurityBeijing Institute of Microbiology and EpidemiologyBeijingChina
| | - Xiao‐Ai Zhang
- State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and BiosecurityBeijing Institute of Microbiology and EpidemiologyBeijingChina
| | - Wei Liu
- State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and BiosecurityBeijing Institute of Microbiology and EpidemiologyBeijingChina
| | - Wei‐Zhong Yang
- Division of Infectious DiseaseKey Laboratory of Surveillance and Early‐Warning on Infectious Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionBeijingChina
| | - Ira M. Longini
- Department of Biostatistics, College of Public Health and Health Professions & Emerging Pathogens InstituteUniversity of FloridaGainesvilleFloridaUSA
| | - George F. Gao
- Division of Infectious DiseaseKey Laboratory of Surveillance and Early‐Warning on Infectious Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionBeijingChina
| | - Zhong‐Jie Li
- Division of Infectious DiseaseKey Laboratory of Surveillance and Early‐Warning on Infectious Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionBeijingChina
| | - Li‐Qun Fang
- State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and BiosecurityBeijing Institute of Microbiology and EpidemiologyBeijingChina
| | - Yang Yang
- Department of Statistics, Franklin College of Arts and SciencesUniversity of GeorgiaAthensGeorgiaUSA
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Liang Y, Sun Z, Hua W, Li D, Han L, Liu J, Huo L, Zhang H, Zhang S, Zhao Y, He X. Spatiotemporal effects of meteorological conditions on global influenza peaks. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2023; 231:116171. [PMID: 37230217 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2023.116171] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/27/2023] [Revised: 05/01/2023] [Accepted: 05/15/2023] [Indexed: 05/27/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Numerous studies have suggested that meteorological conditions such as temperature and absolute humidity are highly indicative of influenza outbreaks. However, the explanatory power of meteorological factors on the seasonal influenza peaks varied widely between countries at different latitudes. OBJECTIVES We aimed to explore the modification effects of meteorological factors on the seasonal influenza peaks in multi-countries. METHODS Data on influenza positive rate (IPR) were collected across 57 countries and data on meteorological factors were collected from ECMWF Reanalysis v5 (ERA5). We used linear regression and generalized additive models to investigate the spatiotemporal associations between meteorological conditions and influenza peaks in cold and warm seasons. RESULTS Influenza peaks were significantly correlated with months with both lower and higher temperatures. In temperate countries, the average intensity of cold season peaks was stronger than that of warm season peaks. However, the average intensity of warm season peaks was stronfger than of cold season peaks in tropical countries. Temperature and specific humidity had synergistic effects on influenza peaks at different latitudes, stronger in temperate countries (cold season: R2=0.90; warm season: R2=0.84) and weaker in tropical countries (cold season: R2=0.64; warm season: R2=0.03). Furthermore, the effects could be divided into cold-dry and warm-humid modes. The temperature transition threshold between the two modes was 16.5-19.5 °C. During the transition from cold-dry mode to warm-humid mode, the average 2 m specific humidity increased by 2.15 times, illustrating that transporting a large amount of water vapor may compensate for the negative effect of rising temperatures on the spread of the influenza virus. CONCLUSION Differences in the global influenza peaks were related to the synergistic influence of temperature and specific humidity. The global influenza peaks could be divided into cold-dry and warm-humid modes, and specific thresholds of meteorological conditions were needed for the transition of the two modes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yinglin Liang
- School of Atmospheric Sciences, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu, 610225, China; State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather (LASW), Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (CAMS), CMA, Beijing, 100081, China; Key Laboratory of Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100089, China
| | - Zhaobin Sun
- State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather (LASW), Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (CAMS), CMA, Beijing, 100081, China; Key Laboratory of Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100089, China.
| | - Wei Hua
- School of Atmospheric Sciences, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu, 610225, China.
| | - Demin Li
- National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Diseases, China-Japan Friendship Hospital, 100192, China
| | - Ling Han
- National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, 102206, China
| | - Jian Liu
- Cardiology Department, Peking University People's Hospital, Beijing, 100044, China
| | - Liming Huo
- Cardiology Department, Peking University People's Hospital, Beijing, 100044, China
| | - Hongchun Zhang
- National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Diseases, China-Japan Friendship Hospital, 100192, China
| | - Shuwen Zhang
- State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather (LASW), Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (CAMS), CMA, Beijing, 100081, China
| | - Yuxin Zhao
- State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather (LASW), Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (CAMS), CMA, Beijing, 100081, China
| | - Xiaonan He
- Emergency Critical Care Center, Beijing AnZhen Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, 100029, China
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Yang J, Xu X, Ma X, Wang Z, You Q, Shan W, Yang Y, Bo X, Yin C. Application of machine learning to predict hospital visits for respiratory diseases using meteorological and air pollution factors in Linyi, China. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2023; 30:88431-88443. [PMID: 37438508 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-023-28682-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/10/2023] [Accepted: 07/04/2023] [Indexed: 07/14/2023]
Abstract
Urbanization and industrial development have resulted in increased air pollution, which is concerning for public health. This study evaluates the effect of meteorological factors and air pollution on hospital visits for respiratory diseases (pneumonia, acute upper respiratory infections, and chronic lower respiratory diseases). The test dataset comprises meteorological parameters, air pollutant concentrations, and outpatient hospital visits for respiratory diseases in Linyi, China, from January 1, 2016 to August 20, 2022. We use support vector regression (SVR) to build models that enable analysis of the effect of meteorological factors and air pollutants on the number of outpatient visits for respiratory diseases. Spearman correlation analysis and SVR model results indicate that NO2, PM2.5, and PM10 are correlated with the occurrence of respiratory diseases, with the strongest correlation relating to pneumonia. An increase in the daily average temperature and daily relative humidity decreases the number of patients with pneumonia and chronic lower respiratory diseases but increases the number of patients with acute upper respiratory infections. The SVR modeling has the potential to predict the number of respiratory-related hospital visits. This work demonstrates that machine learning can be combined with meteorological and air pollution data for disease prediction, providing a useful tool whereby policymakers can take preventive measures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jing Yang
- Intersection of Wohushan Road and Wuhan Road in Beicheng New Area, Linyi People's Hospital, Linyi, 276000, Shandong, People's Republic of China
| | - Xin Xu
- Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing, 100029, People's Republic of China
| | - Xiaotian Ma
- School of Information and Control Engineering, Jilin Institute of Chemical Technology, Jilin City, 132022, People's Republic of China
| | - Zhaotong Wang
- Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing, 100029, People's Republic of China
| | - Qian You
- School of Management and Engineering, Capital University of Economics and Business, Beijing, 100070, People's Republic of China
| | - Wanyue Shan
- Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing, 100029, People's Republic of China
| | - Ying Yang
- Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing, 100029, People's Republic of China
| | - Xin Bo
- Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing, 100029, People's Republic of China
- BUCT Institute for Carbon-Neutrality of Chinese Industries, Beijing, 100029, People's Republic of China
| | - Chuansheng Yin
- Intersection of Wohushan Road and Wuhan Road in Beicheng New Area, Linyi People's Hospital, Linyi, 276000, Shandong, People's Republic of China.
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Zhang R, Lai KY, Liu W, Liu Y, Cai W, Webster C, Luo L, Sarkar C. Association of climatic variables with risk of transmission of influenza in Guangzhou, China, 2005-2021. Int J Hyg Environ Health 2023; 252:114217. [PMID: 37418782 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijheh.2023.114217] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/29/2022] [Revised: 06/16/2023] [Accepted: 06/29/2023] [Indexed: 07/09/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Climatic variables constitute important extrinsic determinants of transmission and seasonality of influenza. Yet quantitative evidence of independent associations of viral transmissibility with climatic factors has thus far been scarce and little is known about the potential effects of interactions between climatic factors on transmission. OBJECTIVE This study aimed to examine the associations of key climatic factors with risk of influenza transmission in subtropical Guangzhou. METHODS Influenza epidemics were identified over a 17-year period using the moving epidemic method (MEM) from a dataset of N = 295,981 clinically- and laboratory-confirmed cases of influenza in Guangzhou. Data on eight key climatic variables were collected from China Meteorological Data Service Centre. Generalized additive model combined with the distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) were developed to estimate the exposure-lag-response curve showing the trajectory of instantaneous reproduction number (Rt) across the distribution of each climatic variable after adjusting for depletion of susceptible, inter-epidemic effect and school holidays. The potential interaction effects of temperature, humidity and rainfall on influenza transmission were also examined. RESULTS Over the study period (2005-21), 21 distinct influenza epidemics with varying peak timings and durations were identified. Increasing air temperature, sunshine, absolute and relative humidity were significantly associated with lower Rt, while the associations were opposite in the case of ambient pressure, wind speed and rainfall. Rainfall, relative humidity, and ambient temperature were the top three climatic contributors to variance in transmissibility. Interaction models found that the detrimental association between high relative humidity and transmissibility was more pronounced at high temperature and rainfall. CONCLUSION Our findings are likely to help understand the complex role of climatic factors in influenza transmission, guiding informed climate-related mitigation and adaptation policies to reduce transmission in high density subtropical cities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rong Zhang
- Healthy High Density Cities Lab, HKUrbanLab, The University of Hong Kong, Knowles Building, Pokfulam Road, Pokfulam, Hong Kong, China; Department of Urban Planning and Design, The University of Hong Kong, Knowles Building, Pokfulam Road, Pokfulam, Hong Kong, China
| | - Ka Yan Lai
- Healthy High Density Cities Lab, HKUrbanLab, The University of Hong Kong, Knowles Building, Pokfulam Road, Pokfulam, Hong Kong, China; Department of Urban Planning and Design, The University of Hong Kong, Knowles Building, Pokfulam Road, Pokfulam, Hong Kong, China
| | - Wenhui Liu
- Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China
| | - Yanhui Liu
- Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China
| | - Wenfeng Cai
- Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China
| | - Chris Webster
- Healthy High Density Cities Lab, HKUrbanLab, The University of Hong Kong, Knowles Building, Pokfulam Road, Pokfulam, Hong Kong, China; Department of Urban Planning and Design, The University of Hong Kong, Knowles Building, Pokfulam Road, Pokfulam, Hong Kong, China; Urban Systems Institute, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Lei Luo
- Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China.
| | - Chinmoy Sarkar
- Healthy High Density Cities Lab, HKUrbanLab, The University of Hong Kong, Knowles Building, Pokfulam Road, Pokfulam, Hong Kong, China; Department of Urban Planning and Design, The University of Hong Kong, Knowles Building, Pokfulam Road, Pokfulam, Hong Kong, China; Department of Psychiatry, University of Oxford, Warneford Hospital, Oxford, OX3 7JX, UK; Urban Systems Institute, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.
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He Y, Liu WJ, Jia N, Richardson S, Huang C. Viral respiratory infections in a rapidly changing climate: the need to prepare for the next pandemic. EBioMedicine 2023:104593. [PMID: 37169688 PMCID: PMC10363434 DOI: 10.1016/j.ebiom.2023.104593] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/04/2022] [Revised: 04/16/2023] [Accepted: 04/17/2023] [Indexed: 05/13/2023] Open
Abstract
Viral respiratory infections (VRIs) cause seasonal epidemics and pandemics, with their transmission influenced by climate conditions. Despite the risks posed by novel VRIs, the relationships between climate change and VRIs remain poorly understood. In this review, we synthesized existing literature to explore the connections between changes in meteorological conditions, extreme weather events, long-term climate warming, and seasonal outbreaks, epidemics, and pandemics of VRIs from an interdisciplinary perspective. We proposed a comprehensive conceptual framework highlighting the potential biological, socioeconomic, and ecological mechanisms underlying the impact of climate change on VRIs. Our findings suggested that climate change increases the risk of VRI emergence and transmission by affecting the biology of viruses, host susceptibility, human behavior, and environmental conditions of both society and ecosystems. Further interdisciplinary research is needed to address the dual challenge of climate change and pandemics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yucong He
- Vanke School of Public Health, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China; Institute of Healthy China, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
| | - William J Liu
- NHC Key Laboratory of Biosafety, National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China
| | - Na Jia
- State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing 100071, PR China
| | - Sol Richardson
- Vanke School of Public Health, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
| | - Cunrui Huang
- Vanke School of Public Health, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China; Institute of Healthy China, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China.
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8
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Matsuki E, Kawamoto S, Morikawa Y, Yahagi N. The Impact of Cold Ambient Temperature in the Pattern of Influenza Virus Infection. Open Forum Infect Dis 2023; 10:ofad039. [PMID: 36789010 PMCID: PMC9915965 DOI: 10.1093/ofid/ofad039] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/17/2022] [Accepted: 01/25/2023] [Indexed: 01/29/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Prior literature suggests that cold temperature strongly influences the immune function of animals and human behaviors, which may allow for the transmission of respiratory viral infections. However, information on the impact of cold stimuli, especially the impact of temporal change in the ambient temperature on influenza virus transmission, is limited. Methods A susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible model was applied to evaluate the effect of temperature change on influenza virus transmission. Results The mean temperature of the prior week was positively associated with the number of newly diagnosed cases (0.107 [95% Bayesian credible interval {BCI}, .106-.109]), whereas the mean difference in the temperature of the prior week was negatively associated (-0.835 [95% BCI, -.840 to -.830]). The product of the mean temperature and mean difference in the temperature of the previous week were also negatively associated with the number of newly diagnosed cases (-0.192 [95% BCI, -.197 to -.187]). Conclusions The mean temperature and the mean difference in temperature affected the number of newly diagnosed influenza cases differently. Our data suggest that high ambient temperature and a drop in the temperature and their interaction increase the risk of infection. Therefore, the highest risk of infection is attributable to a steep fall in temperature in a relatively warm environment.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eri Matsuki
- Correspondence: Naohisa Yahagi, MD, PhD, Keio University, Graduate School of Media and Governance, 5322 Endo, Fujisawa-shi, Kanagawa 252-0882, Japan (); Eri Matsuki, MD, PhD, MPH, Keio University School of Medicine, Clinical and Translational Research Center, 35 Shinanomachi, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo 160-8582, Japan ()
| | - Shota Kawamoto
- Graduate School of Media and Governance, Keio University, Kanagawa, Japan
| | - Yoshihiko Morikawa
- Graduate School of Media and Governance, Keio University, Kanagawa, Japan
| | - Naohisa Yahagi
- Correspondence: Naohisa Yahagi, MD, PhD, Keio University, Graduate School of Media and Governance, 5322 Endo, Fujisawa-shi, Kanagawa 252-0882, Japan (); Eri Matsuki, MD, PhD, MPH, Keio University School of Medicine, Clinical and Translational Research Center, 35 Shinanomachi, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo 160-8582, Japan ()
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9
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Lei H, Yang M, Dong Z, Hu K, Chen T, Yang L, Zhang N, Duan X, Yang S, Wang D, Shu Y, Li Y. Indoor relative humidity shapes influenza seasonality in temperate and subtropical climates in China. Int J Infect Dis 2023; 126:54-63. [PMID: 36427703 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2022.11.023] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/19/2022] [Revised: 11/16/2022] [Accepted: 11/16/2022] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES The aim of this study was to explore whether indoor or outdoor relative humidity (RH) modulates the influenza epidemic transmission in temperate and subtropical climates. METHODS In this study, the daily temperature and RH in 1558 households from March 2017 to January 2019 in five cities across both temperate and subtropical regions in China were collected. City-level outdoor temperature and RH from 2013 to 2019 were collected from the weather stations. We first estimated the effective reproduction number (Rt) of influenza and then used time-series analyses to explore the relationship between indoor/outdoor RH/absolute humidity and the Rt of influenza. Furthermore, we expanded the measured 1-year indoor temperature and the RH data into 5 years and used the same method to examine the relationship between indoor/outdoor RH and the Rt of influenza. RESULTS Indoor RH displayed a seasonal pattern, with highs during the summer months and lows during the winter months, whereas outdoor RH fluctuated with no consistent pattern in subtropical regions. The Rt of influenza followed a U-shaped relationship with indoor RH in both temperate and subtropical regions, whereas a U-shaped relationship was not observed between outdoor RH and Rt. In addition, indoor RH may be a better indicator for Rt of influenza than indoor absolute humidity. CONCLUSION The findings indicated that indoor RH may be the driver of influenza seasonality in both temperate and subtropical locations in China.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hao Lei
- School of Public Health, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, P.R. China
| | - Mengya Yang
- School of Public Health, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, P.R. China
| | - Zhaomin Dong
- School of Space and Environment, Beihang University, Beijing, China
| | - Kejia Hu
- School of Public Health, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, P.R. China
| | - Tao Chen
- National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention; Key Laboratory for Medical Virology, National Health Commission, Beijing 102206, P.R. China
| | - Lei Yang
- National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention; Key Laboratory for Medical Virology, National Health Commission, Beijing 102206, P.R. China
| | - Nan Zhang
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Green Built Environment and Energy Efficient Technology, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, P.R. China
| | - Xiaoli Duan
- School of Energy and Environmental Engineering, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing, China
| | - Shigui Yang
- School of Public Health, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, P.R. China
| | - Dayan Wang
- National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention; Key Laboratory for Medical Virology, National Health Commission, Beijing 102206, P.R. China
| | - Yuelong Shu
- School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Shenzhen Campus of Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, P.R. China
| | - Yuguo Li
- Department of Mechanical Engineering, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam, Hong Kong SAR, P.R. China
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10
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Du M, Zhu H, Yin X, Ke T, Gu Y, Li S, Li Y, Zheng G. Exploration of influenza incidence prediction model based on meteorological factors in Lanzhou, China, 2014-2017. PLoS One 2022; 17:e0277045. [PMID: 36520836 PMCID: PMC9754291 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0277045] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/24/2021] [Accepted: 10/19/2022] [Indexed: 12/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Humans are susceptible to influenza. The influenza virus spreads quickly and behave seasonally. The seasonality and spread of influenza are often associated with meteorological factors and have spatio-temporal differences. Based on the influenza cases and daily average meteorological factors in Lanzhou from 2014 to 2017, this study firstly aimed to analyze the characteristics of influenza incidence in Lanzhou and the impact of meteorological factors on influenza activities. Then, SARIMA(X) models for the prediction were established. The influenza cases in Lanzhou from 2014 to 2017 was more male than female, and the younger the age, the higher the susceptibility; the epidemic characteristics showed that there is a peak in winter, a secondary peak in spring, and a trough in summer and autumn. The influenza cases in Lanzhou increased with increasing daily pressure, decreasing precipitation, average relative humidity, hours of sunshine, average daily temperature and average daily wind speed. Low temperature was a significant driving factor for the increase of transmission intensity of seasonal influenza. The SARIMAX (1,0,0)(1,0,1)[12] multivariable model with average temperature has better prediction performance than the university model. This model is helpful to establish an early warning system, and provide important evidence for the development of influenza control policies and public health interventions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Meixia Du
- School of Public Health, Gansu University of Chinese Medicine, Gansu Lanzhou, China
- Gansu Provincial Cancer Hospital, Gansu Lanzhou, China
| | - Hai Zhu
- School of Public Health, Gansu University of Chinese Medicine, Gansu Lanzhou, China
| | - Xiaochun Yin
- School of Public Health, Gansu University of Chinese Medicine, Gansu Lanzhou, China
- The Collaborative Innovation Center for Prevention and Control by Chinese Medicine on Disease Related Northwestern Environment and Nutrition, Gansu Lanzhou, China
- * E-mail: (XY); (SL)
| | - Ting Ke
- School of Public Health, Gansu University of Chinese Medicine, Gansu Lanzhou, China
| | - Yonge Gu
- School of Public Health, Gansu University of Chinese Medicine, Gansu Lanzhou, China
- The Collaborative Innovation Center for Prevention and Control by Chinese Medicine on Disease Related Northwestern Environment and Nutrition, Gansu Lanzhou, China
| | - Sheng Li
- First People’s Hospital of Lanzhou City, Gansu Lanzhou, China
- * E-mail: (XY); (SL)
| | - Yongjun Li
- Gansu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Gansu Lanzhou, China
| | - Guisen Zheng
- School of Public Health, Gansu University of Chinese Medicine, Gansu Lanzhou, China
- The Collaborative Innovation Center for Prevention and Control by Chinese Medicine on Disease Related Northwestern Environment and Nutrition, Gansu Lanzhou, China
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11
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Ng H, Li Y, Zhang T, Lu Y, Wong C, Ni J, Zhao Q. Association between multiple meteorological variables and seasonal influenza A and B virus transmission in Macau. Heliyon 2022; 8:e11820. [DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2022.e11820] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/28/2022] [Revised: 05/03/2022] [Accepted: 11/15/2022] [Indexed: 11/26/2022] Open
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12
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Qi L, Liu T, Gao Y, Li Q, Tang W, Tian D, Su K, Xiong Y, Yang J, Feng L, Liu Q. Effect of absolute humidity on influenza activity across different climate regions in China. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2022; 29:49373-49384. [PMID: 35218485 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-022-19279-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/07/2021] [Accepted: 02/11/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
Until now, we have no thorough understanding the role of absolute humidity on influenza activity, especially in tropical and subtropical areas. In this study, we investigated the relationship between absolute humidity and influenza activity in seven municipalities/provinces covering different climatic zones in China. Weekly meteorological data and influenza surveillance data in seven provinces/municipalities in China were collected from January 2012 to December 2019. A distributed lag nonlinear model was adopted to investigate the association between absolute humidity (AH) and influenza activity in each study site. Then, seven study sites were grouped into three regions: northern, intermediate, and southernmost regions. A multivariate meta-analysis was applied to estimate the exposure-lag-response associations in three regions. The province-specific or municipality-specific curves appeared to be nonlinear, and the association between influenza activity and AH varied across regions. In Beijing and Tianjin, located in northern China, the cumulative relative risks (RRs) increased as weekly average AHmean fell below 3.41 g/m3 and 6.62 g/m3. In Guangdong and Hainan, located in southernmost China, the risk of influenza activity increased with rising average AHmean with 16.74 g/m3 and 20.18 g/m3 as the break points. In Shanghai, Zhejiang, and Chongqing, the relationship between weekly average AHmean and influenza could be described as U-shaped curves, with the lowest RRs when weekly average AHmean was 11.95 g/m3, 11.94 g/m3, and 15.96 g/m3, respectively. Meta-analysis results showed the cumulative RRs significantly increased as weekly average AHmean fell below 3.86 g/m3 in the northern region, whereas significantly increased as weekly average AHmean rose above 18.46 g/m3 and 15.22 g/m3 in intermediate and southernmost regions, respectively. Both low and high AH might increase influenza risk in China, and the relationship varies geographically. Our findings suggest that public health policies for climate change adaptation should be tailored to the local climate conditions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Li Qi
- Chongqing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chongqing, 400042, China
- State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, 102206, China
| | - Tian Liu
- Jingzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hubei, 434000, China
| | - Yuan Gao
- School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Qin Li
- Chongqing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chongqing, 400042, China
| | - Wenge Tang
- Chongqing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chongqing, 400042, China
| | - Dechao Tian
- School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-Sen University, Shenzhen, 518107, China
| | - Kun Su
- Chongqing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chongqing, 400042, China
| | - Yu Xiong
- Chongqing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chongqing, 400042, China
| | - Jun Yang
- School of Public Health, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, 511436, China.
| | - Luzhao Feng
- School of Population Medicine and Public Health, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, 100730, China.
| | - Qiyong Liu
- State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, 102206, China.
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13
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Wang J, Zhang L, Lei R, Li P, Li S. Effects and Interaction of Meteorological Parameters on Influenza Incidence During 2010-2019 in Lanzhou, China. Front Public Health 2022; 10:833710. [PMID: 35273941 PMCID: PMC8902077 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.833710] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/12/2021] [Accepted: 01/10/2022] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Influenza is a seasonal infectious disease, and meteorological parameters critically influence the incidence of influenza. However, the meteorological parameters linked to influenza occurrence in semi-arid areas are not studied in detail. This study aimed to clarify the impact of meteorological parameters on influenza incidence during 2010-2019 in Lanzhou. The results are expected to facilitate the optimization of influenza-related public health policies by the local healthcare departments. Methods Descriptive data related to influenza incidence and meteorology during 2010-2019 in Lanzhou were analyzed. The exposure-response relationship between the risk of influenza occurrence and meteorological parameters was explored according to the distributed lag no-linear model (DLNM) with Poisson distribution. The response surface model and stratified model were used to estimate the interactive effect between relative humidity (RH) and other meteorological parameters on influenza incidence. Results A total of 6701 cases of influenza were reported during 2010-2019. DLNM results showed that the risk of influenza would gradually increase as the weekly mean average ambient temperature (AT), RH, and absolute humidity (AH) decrease at lag 3 weeks when they were lower than 12.16°C, 51.38%, and 5.24 g/m3, respectively. The low Tem (at 5th percentile, P5) had the greatest effect on influenza incidence; the greatest estimated relative risk (RR) was 4.54 (95%CI: 3.19-6.46) at cumulative lag 2 weeks. The largest estimates of RRs for low RH (P5) and AH (P5) were 4.81 (95%CI: 3.82-6.05) and 4.17 (95%CI: 3.30-5.28) at cumulative lag 3 weeks, respectively. An increase in AT by 1°C led to an estimates of percent change (95%CI) of 3.12% (-4.75% to -1.46%) decrease in the weekly influenza case counts in a low RH environment. In addition, RH showed significant interaction with AT and AP on influenza incidence but not with wind speed. Conclusion This study indicated that low AT, low humidity (RH and AH), and high air pressure (AP) increased the risk of influenza. Moreover, the interactive effect of low RH with low AT and high AP can aggravate the incidence of influenza.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jinyu Wang
- School of Basic Medical Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China
| | - Ling Zhang
- Institute of Occupational Health and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China
| | - Ruoyi Lei
- Institute of Occupational Health and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China
| | - Pu Li
- The Second People's Hospital of Baiyin, Baiyin, China
| | - Sheng Li
- The First People's Hospital of Lanzhou, Lanzhou, China
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14
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Wang T, Wang J, Rao J, Han Y, Luo Z, Jia L, Chen L, Wang C, Zhang Y, Zhang J. Meta-analysis of the effects of ambient temperature and relative humidity on the risk of mumps. Sci Rep 2022; 12:6440. [PMID: 35440700 PMCID: PMC9017417 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-10138-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/06/2021] [Accepted: 04/01/2022] [Indexed: 11/28/2022] Open
Abstract
Many studies have shown that the relationship between ambient temperature, relative humidity and mumps has been highlighted. However, these studies showed inconsistent results. Therefore, the goal of our study is to conduct a meta-analysis to clarify this relationship and to quantify the size of these effects as well as the potential factors. Systematic literature researches on PubMed, Embase.com, Web of Science Core Collection, Cochrane library, Chinese BioMedical Literature Database (CBM) and China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) were performed up to February 7, 2022 for articles analyzing the relationships between ambient temperature, relative humidity and incidence of mumps. Eligibility assessment and data extraction were conducted independently by two researchers, and meta-analysis was performed to synthesize these data. We also assessed sources of heterogeneity by study region, regional climate, study population. Finally, a total of 14 studies were screened out from 1154 records and identified to estimate the relationship between ambient temperature, relative humidity and incidence of mumps. It was found that per 1 °C increase and decrease in the ambient temperature were significantly associated with increased incidence of mumps with RR of 1.0191 (95% CI: 1.0129–1.0252, I2 = 92.0%, Egger’s test P = 0.001, N = 13) for per 1 °C increase and 1.0244 (95% CI: 1.0130–1.0359, I2 = 86.6%, Egger’s test P = 0.077, N = 9) for per 1 °C decrease. As to relative humidity, only high effect of relative humidity was slightly significant (for per 1 unit increase with RR of 1.0088 (95% CI: 1.0027–1.0150), I2 = 72.6%, Egger’s test P = 0.159, N = 9). Subgroup analysis showed that regional climate with temperate areas may have a higher risk of incidence of mumps than areas with subtropical climate in cold effect of ambient temperature and low effect of relative humidity. In addition, meta-regression analysis showed that regional climate may affect the association between incidence of mumps and cold effect of ambient temperature. Our results suggest ambient temperature could affect the incidence of mumps significantly, of which both hot and cold effect of ambient temperature may increase the incidence of mumps. Further studies are still needed to clarify the relationship between the incidence of mumps and ambient temperature outside of east Asia, and many other meteorological factors. These results of ambient temperature are important for establishing preventive measures on mumps, especially in temperate areas. The policy-makers should pay more attention to ambient temperature changes and take protective measures in advance.
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Affiliation(s)
- Taiwu Wang
- Department of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Eastern Theater Command, Nanjing, 210002, China
| | - Junjun Wang
- Nanjing Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing, 210002, China.,Chinese Field Epidemiology Training Program, Beijing, 100050, China
| | - Jixian Rao
- Department of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Eastern Theater Command, Nanjing, 210002, China
| | - Yifang Han
- Department of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Eastern Theater Command, Nanjing, 210002, China
| | - Zhenghan Luo
- Department of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Eastern Theater Command, Nanjing, 210002, China
| | - Lingru Jia
- Wuxi Center of Joint Logistic Support Force, Wuxi, 214000, China
| | - Leru Chen
- Department of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Eastern Theater Command, Nanjing, 210002, China
| | - Chunhui Wang
- Department of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Eastern Theater Command, Nanjing, 210002, China
| | - Yao Zhang
- Department of Epidemiology, College of Preventive Medicine, Army Medical University, Chongqing, 400038, China.
| | - Jinhai Zhang
- Department of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Eastern Theater Command, Nanjing, 210002, China.
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15
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Meng X, Zhao H, Ou R, Zeng Q, Lv H, Zhu H, Ye M. Epidemiological and Clinical Characteristics of Influenza Outbreaks Among Children in Chongqing, China. Front Public Health 2022; 10:760746. [PMID: 35493383 PMCID: PMC9051075 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.760746] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/18/2021] [Accepted: 03/08/2022] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Influenza is a global serious public health threat. Seasonal influenza among children in Chongqing has been a heavy health burden. To date, few studies have examined the spatial and temporal characteristics of influenza. This research sheds new light on correlating them with influenza outbreaks with data of over 5 years (2014–2018). All cluster outbreaks among preschool and school-age children reported in Chongqing were collected through the Public Health Emergency Management Information System. The demographical, epidemiological, and clinical data of the cases were analyzed. From 2014 to 2018, a total of 111 preschool- and school-based influenza-like illness outbreaks involving 3,549 cases were identified. Several clinical symptoms that were analyzed in this study showed significant contrast between influenza A and B. Spatial autocorrelation analysis over the 5-year data detected Xiushan district being the most likely cluster. The exploration of the spatial distribution and clinical characteristics of influenza cluster of children in Chongqing could help the effective implementation of health policies. Future studies should be conducted to monitor the outbreaks of influenza among children.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xuchen Meng
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health and Management, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, China
- Clinical College, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, China
| | - Han Zhao
- Chongqing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chongqing, China
| | - Rong Ou
- The Library, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, China
| | - Qing Zeng
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health and Management, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, China
| | - Huiqun Lv
- The Library, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, China
| | - Hua Zhu
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health and Management, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, China
| | - Mengliang Ye
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health and Management, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, China
- *Correspondence: Mengliang Ye
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