The prognostic value of serum albumin levels and respiratory rate for community-acquired pneumonia: A prospective, multi-center study

Clinical Features and a Prediction Model for Early Prediction of Composite Outcome in Chlamydia psittaci Pneumonia: A Multi-Centre Retrospective Study in China

Introduction

C. psittaci pneumonia has atypical clinical manifestations and is often ignored by clinicians. This study analyzed the clinical characteristics, explored the risk factors for composite outcome and established a prediction model for early prediction of composite outcome among C. psittaci pneumonia patients.

Methods

A multicenter, retrospective, observational cohort study was conducted in ten Chinese tertiary hospitals. Patients diagnosed with C. psittaci pneumonia were included, and their clinical data were collected and analyzed. The composite outcome of C. psittaci pneumonia included death during hospitalization, ICU admission, and mechanical ventilation. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses were conducted to determine the significant variables. A ten-fold cross-validation was performed to internally validate the model. The model performance was evaluated using various methods, including receiver operating characteristics (ROC), C-index, sensitivity, specificity, positive/negative predictive value (PPV/NPV), decision curve analysis (DCA), and clinical impact curve analysis (CICA).

Results

In total, 83 patients comprised training cohorts and 36 patients comprised validation cohorts. CURB-65 was used to establish predictive Model 1. Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified three independent prognostic factors, including serum albumin, CURB-65, and white blood cells. These factors were employed to construct model 2. Model 2 had acceptable discrimination (AUC of 0.898 and 0.825 for the training and validation sets, respectively) and robust internal validity. The specificity, sensitivity, NPV, and PPV for predicting composite outcome in the nomogram model were 91.7%, 84.5%, 50.0%, and 98.4% in the training sets, and 100.0%, 64.7%, 14.2%, and 100.0% in the validation sets. DCA and CICA showed that the nomogram model was clinically practical.

Conclusion

This study constructs a refined nomogram model for predicting the composite outcome in C. psittaci pneumonia patients. This nomogram model enables early and accurate C. psittaci pneumonia patients' evaluation, which may improve clinical outcomes.

Plasma proteome analysis and validation of patients with community-acquired pneumonia: A cohort study

PURPOSE

This study aimed to investigate the diagnostic potential of plasma biomarkers of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) and their severity grading.

EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN

Plasma proteomes from cohort I (n = 32) with CAP were analyzed by data-independent acquisition mass spectrometry (MS). MetaboAnalyst 5.0 was used to statistically evaluate significant differences in proteins from different samples, and demographic and clinical data were recorded for all enrolled patients. Cohort II (n = 80) was used to validate candidate biomarkers. Plasma protein levels were determined using quantitative enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Correlations were assessed using Pearson's correlation coefficient. A receiver operating characteristic curve was used to verify the association between the variables, CAP diagnosis, and prognosis.

RESULTS

121 differentially expressed proteins (DEPs) were obtained between CAP and controls. These DEPs were mainly aggregated in pathways of phagosome(hsa04145) and complement and coagulation cascades (hsa04610). No significant differential proteins were detected in bacterial, viral, and mixed infection groups. The plasma levels of fetuin-A, alpha-1-antichymotrypsin (AACT), α1-acid glycoprotein (A1AG), and S100A8/S100A9 heterodimers detected by ELISA were consistent with those of MS. AACT, A1AG, S100A8/S100A9 heterodimer, and fetuin-A can potentially be used as diagnostic predictors, and fetuin-A and AACT are potential predictors of SCAP.

CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE

Plasma protein profiling can successfully identify potential biomarkers for CAP diagnosis and disease severity assessment. These biomarkers should be further studied for their clinical application.

Association between advanced lung cancer inflammation index and in-hospital mortality in ICU patients with community-acquired pneumonia: A retrospective analysis of the MIMIC-IV database

Objective

The objective of the present study was to explore the correlation between the advanced lung cancer inflammation index (ALI) and in-hospital mortality among patients diagnosed with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP).

Methods

Data from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-IV database were adopted to analyze the in-hospital mortality of ICU patients with CAP. Upon admission to the ICU, fundamental data including vital signs, critical illness scores, comorbidities, and laboratory results, were collected. The in-hospital mortality of all CAP patients was documented. Multivariate logistic regression (MLR) models and restricted cubic spline (RCS) analysis together with subgroup analyses were conducted.

Results

This study includes 311 CAP individuals, involving 218 survivors as well as 93 nonsurvivors. The participants had an average age of 63.57 years, and the females accounted for approximately 45.33%. The in-hospital mortality was documented to be 29.90%. MLR analysis found that ALI was identified as an independent predictor for in-hospital mortality among patients with CAP solely in the Q1 group with ALI ≤ 39.38 (HR: 2.227, 95% CI: 1.026-4.831, P = 0.043). RCS analysis showed a nonlinear relationship between the ALI and in-hospital mortality, with a turning point at 81, and on the left side of the inflection point, a negative correlation was observed between ALI and in-hospital mortality (HR: 0.984, 95% CI: 0.975-0.994, P = 0.002). The subgroup with high blood pressure showed significant interaction with the ALI.

Conclusion

The present study demonstrated a nonlinear correlation of the ALI with in-hospital mortality among individuals with CAP. Additional confirmation of these findings requires conducting larger prospective investigations.

Serum Albumin-to-Creatinine Ratio: A Novel Predictor of Pulmonary Infection in Patients with ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction Undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Intervention

AIM

In patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), a low serum albumin-to-creatinine ratio (sACR) is associated with elevated risk of poor short- and long-term outcomes. However, the relationship between sACR and pulmonary infection during hospitalization in patients with STEMI undergoing PCI remains unclear.

METHODS

A total of 4,507 patients with STEMI undergoing PCI were enrolled and divided into three groups according to sACR tertile. The primary outcome was pulmonary infection during hospitalization, and the secondary outcome was in-hospital major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) including stroke, in-hospital mortality, target vessel revascularization, recurrent myocardial infarction, and all-cause mortality during follow-up.

RESULTS

Overall, 522 (11.6%) patients developed pulmonary infections, and 223 (4.9%) patients developed in-hospital MACE. Cubic spline models indicated a non-linear, L-shaped relationship between sACR and pulmonary infection (P=0.039). Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis indicated that sACR had good predictive value for both pulmonary infection (area under the ROC curve [AUC]=0.73, 95% CI=0.70-0.75, P＜0.001) and in-hospital MACE (AUC=0.72, 95% CI=0.69-0.76, P＜0.001). Kaplan-Meier survival analysis indicated that higher sACR tertiles were associated with a greater cumulative survival rate (P＜0.001). Cox regression analysis identified lower sACR as an independent predictor of long-term all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR]=0.96, 95% CI=0.95-0.98, P＜0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

A low sACR was significantly associated with elevated risk of pulmonary infection and MACE during hospitalization, as well as all-cause mortality during follow-up among patients with STEMI undergoing PCI. These findings highlighted sACR as an important prognostic marker in this patient population.

Prognostic value of lactic dehydrogenase-to-albumin ratio in critically ill patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome: a retrospective cohort study

Background

Lactic dehydrogenase (LDH)-to-albumin ratio (LAR) was an independent risk factor for mortality in the patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) due to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), while the relationship among LAR and short-term, long-term, in-hospital mortalities of ARDS remains unclear. The current study aims to investigate the association between LAR and significant prognosis in patients with ARDS.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective cohort study and analyzed patients with ARDS on the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV) version 2.0 database. In the current study, 30-day mortality was defined as the primary outcome; 90-day mortality and in-hospital mortality were defined as secondary outcomes. Multivariate regression analysis, Kaplan-Meier curve analysis and subgroup analysis were performed to research the association between LAR and prognosis in patients with ARDS.

Results

A total of 358 critically ill patients with ARDS were enrolled in the current study. The mean age of the participants was 62.6±16.0 and the median of LAR was 14.3. According to the Kaplan-Meier curve analysis, the higher LAR group had a higher 30-day, 90-day and in-hospital mortalities. We also analyzed the 30-day mortality to receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves by comparing the value between LAR and LAR + simplified acute physiology score II (SAPS II). The area under the curve (AUC) of the LAR group was 0.694 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.634-0.754, P<0.001], and 0.661 for the LAR + SAPS II (95% CI: 0.599-0.722, P<0.001). For 30-day mortality, after adjusting for covariates, hazard ratios (HRs) (95% CIs) for tertile 2 (LAR 8.7-30.9) and tertile 3 (LAR >30.9) were 2.00 (1.37, 2.92) and 2.50 (1.50, 4.15), respectively. Similar results were also observed for 90-day mortality and in-hospital mortality.

Conclusions

Elevated LAR levels are associated with increased 30- and 90-day mortalities, as well as in-hospital mortality in patients with ARDS, which means LAR levels may predict the mortalities of ARDS patients.

The Clinical Utility of Albumin with Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) in Improving 30-Day Mortality Prediction in Patients with Infection in the Emergency Department

BACKGROUND

The Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score is currently the primary prognostic tool used in patients with infections to predict sepsis and mortality, although its predictive role remains debated. Serum albumin values have been recently found to correlate with the severity of sepsis. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the clinical usefulness of albumin dosage on SOFA score prediction in infected patients.

METHODS

This prospective single-centre observational study was performed in 2021. We used the net reclassification improvement (NRI) technique to evaluate the additional prognostic value of serum albumin used together with the SOFA score in infected patients. The discriminatory abilities of the SOFA score alone, of albumin levels alone, and of the albumin levels together with (but not incorporated into) the SOFA score was evaluated by comparing the area under the curve of the corresponding receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves.

RESULTS

We included 949 patients with an infectious status; 8.9% (84/949) died within 30 days of ED admission. The AUROC for the SOFA score was 0.802 (95% CI: 0.756-0.849) and the albumin level was 0.813 (95% CI: 0.775-0.852). The NRI found that serum albumin improved SOFA score predictions of 30-day mortality by 24.3% (p < 0.001), yielding an AUROC of 0.881 (95% CI: 0.848-0.912; p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Using serum albumin values together with the SOFA score can improve prognostic prediction in patients with infections evaluated in the ED.

Predictive value of arterial blood lactate to serum albumin ratio for in-hospital mortality of patients with community-acquired pneumonia admitted to the Intensive Care Unit

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the predictive value of the arterial blood lactate to serum albumin ratio (LAR) on in-hospital mortality of patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) admitted to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU).

METHODS

Clinical datasets of 1720 CAP patients admitted to ICU from MIMIC-IV database were retrospectively analyzed. Patients were randomly assigned to the training cohort (n=1204) and the validation cohort (n=516) in a ratio of 7:3. X-tile software was used to find the optimal cut-off value for LAR. The receiver operating curve (ROC) analysis was conducted to compare the performance between LAR and other indicators. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were applied to select prognostic factors associated with in-hospital mortality. Based on the observed prognostic factors, a nomogram model was created in training cohort, and the validation cohort was utilized to further validate the nomogram.

RESULTS

The optimal cut-off value for LAR in CAP patients admitted to ICU was 1.6 (the units of lactate and albumin were, respectively, 'mmol/L' and 'g/dL'). The ROC analysis showed that the discrimination abilities of LAR were superior to other indicators except Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score and Simplified acute physiology score (SAPSII), which had the same abilities. Age, mean arterial pressure, SpO2, heart rate, SAPSII score, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, and LAR were found to be independent predictors of poor overall survival in the training cohort by multivariate Cox regression analysis and were incorporated into the nomogram for in-hospital mortality as independent factors. The nomogram model, exhibiting medium discrimination, had a C-index of 0.746 (95% CI = 0.715-0.777) in the training cohort and 0.716 (95% CI = 0.667-0.765) in the validation cohort.

CONCLUSION

LAR could predict in-hospital mortality of patients with CAP admitted to ICU independently as a readily accessible biomarker. The nomogram that included LAR with other independent factors performed well in predicting in-hospital mortality.

The relationship between frailty and community-acquired pneumonia in older patients

PURPOSES

To explore the relationship between frailty and community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) in older patients.

METHODS

A prospective observational study included 109 older patients(≥ 65 years) hospitalized with CAP in respiratory department of Fuxing hospital, Capital Medical University from June 2018 to December 2020. Frailty scores(Frail Scale, range 0-5) and pneumonia severity CURB-65 scale(mild = 1, modest = 2, and severe ≥ 3) were measured. We extracted clinical variables including white blood cell(WBC), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), C-reactive protein(CRP), hemoglobin, and albumin. Charlson Comorbidity Index(CCI) was calculated as well. The correlations between the variables and frailty scores were investigated, respectively. After adjusting for covariates, binomial logistic regression analysis was used to assess independent effect of frailty scores on the outcome(discharge or death/progression) in older CAP patients.

RESULTS

The subjects had a median age 87(interquartile range,8.5) years, 60.6% male, 45.9% pre-frail, and 32.1% frail. There were positive correlations between frailty scores and CURB-65 scale (p = 0.000, r = 0.542), CCI(p = 0.000, r = 0.359) and NLR(p = 0.005, r = 0.268). Negative correlations were observed between frailty scores and hemoglobin (p = 0.002, r = - 0.298), albumin (p = 0.000, r = - 0.465). In multivariable logistic regression analysis, the factors associated with discharge or death/progression of CAP were frailty scores (OR = 1.623, p = 0.037), NLR (OR = 1.086, p = 0.008) and albumin (OR = 0.869, p = 0.034).

CONCLUSIONS

Frailty is correlated with CURB-65 scale, CCI and hemoglobin, and albumin in older patients with CAP. Frailty is also a correlate of increased risk for death or progression in these older people.

Development and validation of a survival prediction model in elder patients with community-acquired pneumonia: a MIMIC-population-based study

BACKGROUND

To develop a prediction model predicting in-hospital mortality of elder patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU).

METHODS

In this cohort study, data of 619 patients with CAP aged ≥ 65 years were obtained from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III (MIMIC III) 2001-2012 database. To establish the robustness of predictor variables, the sample dataset was randomly partitioned into a training set group and a testing set group (ratio: 6.5:3.5). The predictive factors were evaluated using multivariable logistic regression, and then a prediction model was constructed. The prediction model was compared with the widely used assessments: Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI), systolic blood pressure, oxygenation, age and respiratory rate (SOAR), CURB-65 scores using positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), accuracy (ACC), area under the curve (AUC) and 95% confidence interval (CI). The decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to assess the net benefit of the prediction model. Subgroup analysis based on the pathogen was developed.

RESULTS

Among 402 patients in the training set, 90 (24.63%) elderly CAP patients suffered from 30-day in-hospital mortality, with the median follow-up being 8 days. Hemoglobin/platelets ratio, age, respiratory rate, international normalized ratio, ventilation use, vasopressor use, red cell distribution width/blood urea nitrogen ratio, and Glasgow coma scales were identified as the predictive factors that affect the 30-day in-hospital mortality. The AUC values of the prediction model, the SOFA, SOAR, PSI and CURB-65 scores, were 0.751 (95% CI 0.749-0.752), 0.672 (95% CI 0.670-0.674), 0.607 (95% CI 0.605-0.609), 0.538 (95% CI 0.536-0.540), and 0.645 (95% CI 0.643-0.646), respectively. DCA result demonstrated that the prediction model could provide greater clinical net benefits to CAP patients admitted to the ICU. Concerning the pathogen, the prediction model also reported better predictive performance.

CONCLUSION

Our prediction model could predict the 30-day hospital mortality in elder patients with CAP and guide clinicians to identify the high-risk population.

A new predictive tool consolidating CURB-65 with procalcitonin and albumin to assess short-term mortality in hospitalized elderly patients with infectious disease: A retrospective study of a patient cohort

BACKGROUND

Hospitalized elderly patients are often at risk of life-threatening infectious diseases such as pneumonia and urinary tract infection, thus diagnostic tools for bacterial infections are demanded. We developed a new predictive tool consolidating modified CURB-65, procalcitonin (PCT) and albumin (Alb).

METHOD

This is a retrospective study. Modified CURB-65 (mCURB-65) score, PCT, Alb, and various cardiovascular/respiratory/renal functions were measured. Survival analyses were conducted to assess 30-days mortality of elderly patients using mCURB-65 score, PCT and Alb. The consolidated scores were compared with the number of patients died.

RESULTS

There were 445 elderly patients included. Kaplan-Meier survival curves showed significant differences between the high and low groups of mCURB-65, PCT and Alb (log-rank test, P < .001). Cox proportional regression showed that the hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) for high mCURB-65, high Alb, and high PCT were all significant, 1.95 (1.24-3.05), 0.50 (0.32-0.77), and 2.09 (1.32-3.31), respectively. The consolidated scores showed tendency of increase with proportion of the number of patients died.

CONCLUSIONS

The consolidated score consisted of mCURB-65, PCT and Alb can be a useful tool to predict short-term mortality of the hospitalized elderly patients with infectious disease.

Early predictors of lung necrosis severity in children with community-acquired necrotizing pneumonia

OBJECTIVE

To analyze baseline clinical and laboratory characteristics and explore the possible predictors of lung necrosis severity in children with community-acquired necrotizing pneumonia (NP).

METHODOLOGY

This retrospective observational study was performed in a tertiary referral center. A total of 104 patients aged <15 years with community-acquired pneumonia and radiologically confirmed NP by computed tomography (CT) were included. Patients were classified into the mild, moderate, or massive necrosis groups.

RESULTS

Among them, 29, 41, and 34 patients had mild, moderate, and massive necrosis, respectively. Moreover, 34.6% of the patients were admitted to pediatric intensive care unit. Massive necrosis was more likely to occur during winter (p < 0.05) and was associated with more severe clinical outcomes, such as longer duration of fever, longer hospitalization, increased mortality, and a higher risk of subsequent surgical intervention (p < 0.05). Multivariate analysis demonstrated that the following were independent risk factors for massive necrosis in this study: C-reactive protein (CRP) (p = 0.036), serum albumin (p = 0.009), and immunoglobulin M (IgM) (p = 0.022). Receiver operating characteristic analysis showed that when the cut-off value for CRP, serum albumin, and IgM were set at 122 mg/L, 30.8 g/L, and 95.7 mg/dl, respectively, they showed good diagnostic performance for differentiating patients with massive necrosis from all patients with NP.

CONCLUSION

NP is a potentially severe complication of pediatric community-acquired pneumonia. Different severities of lung necrosis can lead to different clinical outcomes. CRP, serum albumin, and IgM levels are independent predictors of the degree of lung necrosis.

Association of Serum Albumin and Copeptin with Early Clinical Deterioration and Instability in Community-Acquired Pneumonia

Background: There is a paucity of data on biomarkers for the early deterioration and clinical instability of patients in community-acquired pneumonia (CAP), as treatment failure occurs in the first seven days in 90% of patients. Aim: To evaluate serum albumin and copeptin with CURB-65, PSI scoring and ATS/IDSA minor criteria for the prediction of early mortality or ICU-admission (7 days) and clinical instability after 72 h. Methods: In 100 consecutive hospitalized adult CAP patients, PSI-scores, CURB-65 scores, ATS/IDSA 2007 minor criteria, copeptin and albumin on admission were evaluated. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis was performed to assess independent risk factors for early combined mortality or ICU admission. Predictive powers of albumin and copeptin were tested with ROC curves and ICU-free survival probability was tested using Kaplan−Meier analysis. Results: Albumin was lower and copeptin higher in patients with short-term adverse outcomes (p < 0.05). Cox regression analysis showed that albumin [HR (95% CI): 0.41 (0.18−0.94, p = 0.034)] and copeptin [HR (95% CI): 1.94 (1.03−3.67, p = 0.042)] were independent risk factors for early combined mortality or ICU admission (7 days). The Kaplan−Meier analysis observed that high copeptin (>27.12 ng/mL) and low albumin levels (<2.85 g/dL) had a lower (p < 0.001) survival probability. The diagnostic accuracy of albumin was better than copeptin. The inclusion of albumin and copeptin into ATS/IDSA minor criteria significantly improved their predictive power. Conclusions: Both biomarkers serum albumin and copeptin can predict early deterioration and clinical instability in hospitalized CAP patients and increase the prognostic power of the traditional clinical scoring systems.

Age, Pulse, Urea, and Albumin Score: A Tool for Predicting the Short-Term and Long-Term Outcomes of Community-Acquired Pneumonia Patients With Diabetes

OBJECTIVE

The predictive performances of CURB-65 and pneumonia severity index (PSI) were poor in patients with diabetes. This study aimed to develop a tool for predicting the short-term and long-term outcomes of CAP in patients with diabetes.

METHODS

A retrospective study was conducted on 531 CAP patients with type 2 diabetes. The short-term outcome was in-hospital mortality. The long-term outcome was 24-month all-cause death. The APUA score was calculated according to the levels of Age (0-2 points), Pulse (0-2 points), Urea (0-2 points), and Albumin (0-4 points). The area under curves (AUCs) were used to evaluate the abilities of the APUA score for predicting short-term outcomes. Cox regression models were used for modeling relationships between the APUA score and 24-month mortality.

RESULTS

The AUC of the APUA score for predicting in-hospital mortality was 0.807 in patients with type 2 diabetes (P<0.001). The AUC of the APUA score was higher than the AUCs of CURB-65 and PSI class (P<0.05). The long-term mortality increased with the risk stratification of the APUA score (low-risk group (0-1 points) 11.5%, intermediate risk group (2-4 points) 16.9%, high risk group (≥5 points) 28.8%, P<0.05). Compared with patients in the low-risk group, patients in the high-risk group had significantly increased risk of long-term death, HR (95%CI) was 2.093 (1.041~4.208, P=0.038).

CONCLUSION

The APUA score is a simple and accurate tool for predicting short-term and long-term outcomes of CAP patients with diabetes.

Clinical Usefulness of Red Cell Distribution Width/Albumin Ratio to Discriminate 28-Day Mortality in Critically Ill Patients with Pneumonia Receiving Invasive Mechanical Ventilation, Compared with Lacate/Albumin Ratio: A Retrospective Cohort Study

The value of the red cell distribution width (RDW) is associated with prognosis in critically ill patients. A simplex combined index—the RDW/albumin ratio—has been proposed for the prediction of mortality, as has the lactate/albumin ratio. The aim of this study was to evaluate the clinical utility of the RDW/albumin ratio regarding 28-day mortality in critically ill patients with pneumonia. Clinical data of critically ill patients with pneumonia who were hospitalized in the medical intensive care unit from May 2018 to December 2020, and received invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV), were reviewed retrospectively. The values of RDW, lactate, and albumin measured at the time of IMV, were used for the index calculations. Of the 234 patients, the median age was 76 years, and 74.2% were male. The 28-day mortality rate was 47.3%. The median RDW/albumin ratio was significantly higher in non-survivors than survivors at 28 days (5.8 vs. 4.9, p < 0.001). A higher RDW/albumin ratio was significantly associated with increased 28-day mortality (odds ratio [OR] 1.338, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.094–1.637, p = 0.005). The area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) was 0.694 (95% CI: 0.630–758, p < 0.005) to discern 28-day mortality without significant difference, compared with that of the lactate/albumin ratio. Our data suggest that high RDW/albumin ratio has a similar predictability to the lactate/albumin ratio in critically ill patients with pneumonia receiving IMV.

Comparison of Different Scoring Systems for Prediction of Mortality and ICU Admission in Elderly CAP Population

Background

The incidence and mortality rate of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) in elderly patients were higher than the younger population. Different scoring systems, including The quick Sequential Organ Function Assessment (qSOFA), Combination of Confusion, Urea, Respiratory Rate, Blood Pressure, and Age ≥65 (CURB-65), Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) and National Early Warning Score (NEWS), were used widely for predicting mortality and ICU admission of patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). This study aimed to identify the most suitable score system for better hospitalization.

Methods

We retrospectively analyzed elderly patients with CAP in Minhang Hospital, Fudan University from 1 January 2018 to 1 January 2020. We recorded information of the patients including age, gender, underlying disease, consciousness state, vital signs, physiological and laboratory variables and further calculated the qSOFA, CURB-65, MEWS, and NEWS scores. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to predict the mortality risk and ICU admission. Kaplan–Meier survival curves were used in survival rate.

Results

In total, 1044 patients were selected for analysis and divided into two groups, namely survivor groups (902 cases) and non-survivor groups (142 cases). Depending on ICU admission enrolled patients were classified into ICU admission (n = 102) and non-ICU admission (n = 942) groups. Mortality expressed as AUC values were 0.844 (p < 0.001), 0.868 (p < 0.001), 0.927 (p < 0.001) and 0.892 (p < 0.001) for qSOFA, CURB 65, MEWS and NEWS, respectively. There were clear differences in MEWS vs CURB-65 (p < 0.0001), MEWS vs NEWS (p < 0.001), MEWS vs qSOFA (p < 0.0001). For ICU-admission, the AUC values of qSOFA, CURB-65, MEWS and NEWS scores were 0.866 (p < 0.001), 0.854 (p < 0.001), 0.922 (p < 0.001), 0.976 (p < 0.001), respectively. There were significant differences in NEWS vs CURB-65 (p < 0.0001), NEWS vs MEWS (p < 0.001), NEWS vs qSOFA (p < 0.0001).

Conclusion

We explored the outcome prediction values of CURB65, qSOFA, MEWS and NEWS for patients aged 65-years and older with community-acquired pneumonia. We found that MEWS showed superiority over the other severity scores in predicting hospital mortality, and NEWS showed superiority over the other scores in predicting ICU admission.