Malaria risk factors in northern Namibia: The importance of occupation, age and mobility in characterizing high-risk populations

G-formula for observational studies under stratified interference, with application to bed net use on malaria

Assessing population-level effects of vaccines and other infectious disease prevention measures is important to the field of public health. In infectious disease studies, one person's treatment may affect another individual's outcome, that is, there may be interference between units. For example, the use of bed nets to prevent malaria by one individual may have an indirect effect on other individuals living in close proximity. In some settings, individuals may form groups or clusters where interference only occurs within groups, that is, there is partial interference. Inverse probability weighted estimators have previously been developed for observational studies with partial interference. Unfortunately, these estimators are not well suited for studies with large clusters. Therefore, in this paper, the parametric g-formula is extended to allow for partial interference. G-formula estimators are proposed for overall effects, effects when treated, and effects when untreated. The proposed estimators can accommodate large clusters and do not suffer from the g-null paradox that may occur in the absence of interference. The large sample properties of the proposed estimators are derived assuming no unmeasured confounders and that the partial interference takes a particular form (referred to as 'weak stratified interference'). Simulation studies are presented demonstrating the finite-sample performance of the proposed estimators. The Demographic and Health Survey from the Democratic Republic of the Congo is then analyzed using the proposed g-formula estimators to assess the effects of bed net use on malaria.

A systematic review of the factors associated with malaria infection among forest rangers

INTRODUCTION

Malaria is a vector-borne disease that initially manifests as fever, headache, and chills. The illness could progress to more severe conditions, including lethargy, impaired consciousness, convulsions, shortness of breath, blood in urine, jaundice, and haemorrhage if left untreated. The risk of contracting malaria is considerably heightened in specific occupational settings, particularly among forest rangers, following frequent exposure to natural habitats. Consequently, advancing the understanding of malaria and emphasising how specific occupational environments (including those of forest rangers) contribute to disease risk and management is imperative.

OBJECTIVE

The present study aims to determine the factors associated with malaria infection among forest rangers by systematically reviewing electronic articles from three databases (EBSCOhost, ScienceDirect, and ResearchGate).

METHODS

The current review was prepared based on the updated preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. First, three independent reviewers screened the titles and abstracts of the data collected. The information was then stored in Endnote20 based on the inclusion and exclusion criteria. The articles were critically appraised with the mixed methods appraisal tool (MMAT) to assess their quality.

RESULT

A total of 103, 31, and 51 articles from EBSCOhost, ScienceDirect, and ResearchGate, respectively, were selected, resulting in 185 unique hits. Nevertheless, only 63 full-text publications were assessed following a rigorous selection screening, from which only five were included in the final review. The studies revealed that several factors contribute to malaria infection among forest rangers. The parameters were classified into sociodemographic, individual, and living condition-related.

CONCLUSION

A better understanding of malaria progresses and identifying its potential risk factors is essential to impact worker well-being. The findings might be utilised to improve malaria infection prevention programme implementations, hence maximising their success. Pre-employment and regular health screenings could also aid in evaluating and identifying potential risks for malaria infection among forest rangers.

Identifying and characterizing high-risk populations in pilot malaria elimination districts in Madagascar: a mixed-methods study

BACKGROUND

In Madagascar, the districts of Antsirabe II, Faratsiho and Antsiranana I have relatively low malaria incidence rates and have been selected by the National Malaria Control Programme for pilot elimination strategies. The districts have residual transmission despite increasing coverage and quality of malaria services. This study sought to identify priority subpopulations at highest risk for malaria and collect information on intervention preferences and methods that will inform subnational tailoring of malaria service delivery.

METHODS

This mixed methods study employed (i) a quantitative malaria risk factor assessment in Antsirabe II and Faratsiho comprising a test-negative frequency matched case-control study and a qualitative risk factor assessment in Antsiranana I; and (ii) a qualitative formative assessment in all three districts. For the case-control study, a mixed effects logistic regression was used with age, sex and district included as fixed effects and health facility included as a random effect. The qualitative risk factor assessment used semi-structured interview guides and key informant interviews. For the qualitative formative assessment in the three districts, a summary report was generated following semi-structured interviews and focus group discussions with high-risk populations (HRPs) and stakeholders.

RESULTS

In Antsirabe II and Faratsiho districts, rice agriculture workers, outdoor/manual workers, particularly miners, and those with jobs that required travel or overnight stays, especially itinerant vendors, had higher odds of malaria infection compared to other (non-rice) agricultural workers. In Antsiranana I, respondents identified non-rice farmers, mobile vendors, and students as HRPs. Risk factors among these groups included overnight stays and travel patterns combined with a lack of malaria prevention tools. HRPs reported treatment cost and distance to the health facility as barriers to care and expressed interest in presumptive treatment and involvement of gatekeepers or people who have influence over intervention access or participation.

CONCLUSIONS

The study results illustrate the value of in-depth assessments of risk behaviours, access to services and prevention tools, surveillance and prevention strategies, and the involvement of gatekeepers in shaping subnational tailoring to reach previously unreached populations and address residual transmission in elimination settings.

Targeted Drug Administration to Reduce Malaria Transmission: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

In low- to very low-malaria transmission areas, most infections may be accrued within specific groups whose behaviors or occupations put them at increased risk of infection. If these infections comprise a large proportion of the reservoir of infection, targeting interventions to these groups could reduce transmission at the population level. We conducted a systematic review to assess the impact of providing antimalarials to groups of individuals at increased risk of malaria whose infections were considered to comprise a large proportion of the local reservoir of infections (targeted drug administration [TDA]). A literature search was conducted in March 2021 and updated in April 2022. Two reviewers screened titles, abstracts, and full-text records. The Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation approach was used to rate the certainty of the evidence (CoE) for each outcome. Out of 2,563 records, we identified five studies for inclusion: two cluster-randomized controlled trials (cRCTs) in Uganda and Kenya; one controlled before-after study in Ghana; and two uncontrolled before-after studies in Sri Lanka and Greece. Compared with no intervention, TDA resulted in little to no difference in the prevalence of infection at the population level (risk ratio [RR]: 0.85, 95% CI: 0.73-1.00; one cRCT, high CoE), although TDA likely resulted in a large reduction in prevalence among those targeted by the intervention (RR: 0.15, 95% CI: 0.06-0.38; two cRCTs, moderate CoE). Although TDA may reduce the burden of malaria among those receiving antimalarials, we found no evidence that it reduces transmission at the population level.

Targeted Testing and Treatment To Reduce Human Malaria Transmission in High-Risk Populations: A Systematic Review

As countries approach elimination of malaria, groups with increased exposure to malaria vectors or poor access to health services may serve as important human reservoirs of infection that help maintain transmission in the community. Parasitological testing and treatment targeted to these groups may reduce malaria transmission overall. This systematic review assessed the effectiveness of targeted testing and treatment (TTaT) to reduce malaria transmission, the contextual factors, and the results of modeling studies that estimated the intervention's potential impact. Bibliographic searches were conducted in March 2021 and updated in April 2022, and a total of 1,210 articles were identified. Three studies were included for outcome data: one factorial cluster randomized controlled trial (cRCT) in Kenya (5,233 participants), one cRCT in Ghana (3,046 participants), and one controlled before-and-after cohort study in schoolchildren in Malawi (786 participants). Nine reports were included for contextual factors, and two were included for mathematical modeling. Data on outcomes from the three studies suggested that at the community level, TTaT would result in little to no difference in the incidence of malaria infection (measured via active surveillance), adverse events, and severe AEs. In contrast, the effects of TTaT on prevalence (malaria parasitemia) among those targeted by the intervention were found to include a short-term impact on reducing transmission but little to no impact on transmission for extended periods. Future iterations of this review should ensure consideration for populations proven to host the vast majority of the reservoir of infection in lower-transmission settings to determine the effectiveness of the intervention.

Estimating the size of populations at risk for malaria: a case study in cattle herders and agricultural workers in Northern Namibia

Cattle herders and agricultural workers have been identified has key high-risk populations for malaria in northern Namibia. Population size estimates for these groups are lacking but are important for planning, monitoring and evaluating the effectiveness of targeted strategies towards malaria elimination in the region. In this analysis, we extend population size estimation methods routinely used in HIV research, specifically social mapping and multiple source capture-recapture, to the context of malaria to estimate how many cattle herders and agricultural workers lived in two regions of northern Namibia over the course of the 2019-2020 malaria season. Both methods estimated two to three times more agricultural workers than cattle herders but size estimates based on the multiple source capture-recapture method were two to three times greater than the mapping-based, highlighting important methodological considerations to apply such methods to these highly mobile populations. In particular, we compared open versus closed populations assumptions for the capture-recapture method and assessed the impact of sensitivity analyses on the procedure to link records across multiple data sources on population size estimates. Our results are important for national control programs to target their resources and consider integrating routine population size estimation of high risk populations in their surveillance activities.

Insecticide susceptibility status of Anopheles gambiae mosquitoes and the effect of pre-exposure to a piperonyl butoxide (PBO) synergist on resistance to deltamethrin in northern Namibia

BACKGROUND

Pyrethroid-based indoor residual spraying (IRS) and long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) have been employed as key vector control measures against malaria in Namibia. However, pyrethroid resistance in Anopheles mosquitoes may compromise the efficacy of these interventions. To address this challenge, the World Health Organization (WHO) recommends the use of piperonyl butoxide (PBO) LLINs in areas where pyrethroid resistance is confirmed to be mediated by mixed function oxidase (MFO).

METHODS

This study assessed the susceptibility of Anopheles gambiae sensu lato (s.l.) mosquitoes to WHO tube bioassays with 4% DDT and 0.05% deltamethrin insecticides. Additionally, the study explored the effect of piperonyl butoxide (PBO) synergist by sequentially exposing mosquitoes to deltamethrin (0.05%) alone, PBO (4%) + deltamethrin (0.05%), and PBO alone. The Anopheles mosquitoes were further identified morphologically and molecularly.

RESULTS

The findings revealed that An. gambiae sensu stricto (s.s.) (62%) was more prevalent than Anopheles arabiensis (38%). The WHO tube bioassays confirmed resistance to deltamethrin 0.05% in the Oshikoto, Kunene, and Kavango West regions, with mortality rates of 79, 86, and 67%, respectively. In contrast, An. arabiensis displayed resistance to deltamethrin 0.05% in Oshikoto (82% mortality) and reduced susceptibility in Kavango West (96% mortality). Notably, there was reduced susceptibility to DDT 4% in both An. gambiae s.s. and An. arabiensis from the Kavango West region. Subsequently, a subsample from PBO synergist assays in 2020 demonstrated a high proportion of An. arabiensis in Oshana (84.4%) and Oshikoto (73.6%), and 0.42% of Anopheles quadriannulatus in Oshana. Non-amplifiers were also present (15.2% in Oshana; 26.4% in Oshikoto). Deltamethrin resistance with less than 95% mortality, was consistently observed in An. gambiae s.l. populations across all sites in both 2020 and 2021. Following pre-exposure to the PBO synergist, susceptibility to deltamethrin was fully restored with 100.0% mortality at all sites in 2020 and 2021.

CONCLUSIONS

Pyrethroid resistance has been identified in An. gambiae s.s. and An. arabiensis in the Kavango West, Kunene, and Oshikoto regions, indicating potential challenges for pyrethroid-based IRS and LLINs. Consequently, the data highlights the promise of pyrethroid-PBO LLINs in addressing resistance issues in the region.

Impacts of Deforestation on Childhood Malaria Depend on Wealth and Vector Biology

Ecosystem change can profoundly affect human well-being and health, including through changes in exposure to vector-borne diseases. Deforestation has increased human exposure to mosquito vectors and malaria risk in Africa, but there is little understanding of how socioeconomic and ecological factors influence the relationship between deforestation and malaria risk. We examined these interrelationships in six sub-Saharan African countries using demographic and health survey data linked to remotely sensed environmental variables for 11,746 children under 5 years old. We found that the relationship between deforestation and malaria prevalence varies by wealth levels. Deforestation is associated with increased malaria prevalence in the poorest households, but there was not significantly increased malaria prevalence in the richest households, suggesting that deforestation has disproportionate negative health impacts on the poor. In poorer households, malaria prevalence was 27%-33% larger for one standard deviation increase in deforestation across urban and rural populations. Deforestation is also associated with increased malaria prevalence in regions where Anopheles gambiae and Anopheles funestus are dominant vectors, but not in areas of Anopheles arabiensis. These findings indicate that deforestation is an important driver of malaria risk among the world's most vulnerable children, and its impact depends critically on often-overlooked social and biological factors. An in-depth understanding of the links between ecosystems and human health is crucial in designing conservation policies that benefit people and the environment.

Understanding the impact of mobility on Plasmodium spp. carriage in an Amazon cross-border area with low transmission rate

Despite the large reduction in malaria incidence in the last decade, the last kilometre to elimination is often the hardest, especially in international border areas. This study investigated the impact of mobility on Plasmodium spp. carriage in people living in a cross-border area in Amazonia with a low malaria transmission rate. We implemented a longitudinal ancillary study in the French Guiana town of St. Georges de l'Oyapock, which is located on the border with Brazil. It was based on data from two transversal surveys performed in October 2017 and October 2018. Data were collected on peri-domestic mobility for food-producing activities, and longer-distance mobility in high-risk areas. Participants were screened for Plasmodium spp. carriage using PCR tests, and treated if positive. Vector density around a participant's home was estimated using a previously published model based on remote sensing and meteorological data. The association between Plasmodium spp. carriage and mobility was analysed using a generalized additive mixed model. A total of 1,192 inhabitants, aged between 0 and 92 years old, were included. Median age was 18 years in 2017 (IQR [8;35]). Plasmodium spp. prevalence in the study population was 7% in 2017 (n = 89) and 3% in 2018 (n = 35). Plasmodium spp. carriage was independently associated with i) travel to the adjoining Oiapoque Indigenous Territories in Brazil (OR = 1.76, p = 0.023), ii) the estimated vector density around a participant's home (High versus Low risk OR = 4.11, p<0.001), iii) slash-and-burn farming (OR = 1.96, p = 0.013), and iv) age (p = 0.032). Specific surveillance systems and interventions which take into account different types of mobility are needed in cross-border areas to achieve and maintain malaria elimination (e.g., reactive case detection and treatment in the places visited).

Magnitude of malaria and associated factors among febrile adults in Siraro District Public Health facilities, West Arsi Zone, Oromia, Ethiopia 2022: a facility-based cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

Despite significant efforts made to control malaria in Ethiopia, the disease remains one of the top public health problems in the country. Baseline malaria prevalence and associated factor at high malaria area is important to guide malaria control interventions, there was paucity of information regarding the study area. Therefore, the aim of this study was to determine prevalence of malaria and associated factors among febrile adults in Siraro district health facilities, West Arsi Zone, Oromia, Ethiopia.

METHODS

Institution-based cross-sectional study was conducted among 317 febrile adult patients at Siraro district health facilities. Structured pre-tested questionnaires were used to collect data. Epi-data version 3.1 and SPSS version 23 were used for data entry and analysis respectively. In order to identify factors associated with malaria infection bivariable and multivariable binary logistic regression analysis was employed, The Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) with a 95% confidence interval (CI) and p-value of < 0.05 was computed to show the strength of the association.

RESULTS

The overall prevalence of malaria at the study area was 130 (41.0%) [(95% CI 35.3-46.7)]. Occupation (being farmer) [(AOR = 6.05; 95% CI 1.38, 26.49)], having poor knowledge on malaria transmission [(AOR = 2.95 95%; CI 1.48-5.88)], house with wood wall [(AOR = 2.71; 95% CI 1.34-5.49)], and number of windows (≥ 3) in the house [(AOR = 6.82; 95% CI 1.05, 44.40)] were identified to be significantly associated with magnitude of malaria in the study area.

CONCLUSION

The prevalence of malaria at the study area was high as compared with the national wide figures. Being farmer, having poor knowledge on malaria transmission, and housing condition (house with wood wall and houses with three and above windows) were found to be significantly associated with malaria infection in the study area. Therefore, there has to be an emphasis on addressing the factors by providing sustainable health education for the communities to improve their housing condition and knowledge of community on the way of malaria prevention.

Baseline characterization of entomological drivers of malaria transmission in Namibia: a targeted operational entomological surveillance strategy

BACKGROUND

Namibia's focus on the elimination of malaria requires an evidence-based strategy directed at understanding and targeting the entomological drivers of malaria transmission. In 2018 and 2019, the Namibia National Vector-borne Diseases Control Program (NVDCP) implemented baseline entomological surveillance based on a question-based approach outlined in the Entomological Surveillance Planning Tool (ESPT). In the present study, we report on the findings of the ESPT-based NVDCP on baseline vector species composition and bionomic traits in malaria endemic regions in northern Namibia, which has the aim of generating an evidence base for programmatic decision-making.

METHODS

Nine representative sentinel sites were included in the 2018 entomological surveillance program (Kunene, Omusati, Oshana, Ohangwena, Oshikoto, Otjozondjupa, Kavango West, Kavango East and Zambezi); the number was reduced to four sites in 2019 due to limited funding (Ohangwena, Kavango West, Kavango East, and Zambezi). In the 2018 baseline collections, multiple sampling methods (human landing catches, pyrethroid spray catches, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention light traps [CDC-LTs], resting boxes [RBs] and larval sampling) were utilized to evaluate indoor/outdoor human biting rates, resting behaviors and insecticide resistance (IR). CDC-LTs and RBs were not used in 2019 due to low and non-representative sampling efficacies.

RESULTS

Overall, molecular evidence demonstrated the presence of three primary mosquito vectors, namely Anopheles arabiensis, rediscovered Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto and Anopheles funestus sensu stricto, alongside Anopheles squamosus and members of the Anopheles coustani complex. Vectors were found to bite throughout the night (1800 hours 0600 hours) both indoors and outdoors, with An. arabiensis having the highest biting rates outdoors. Low numbers of indoor resting Anopheles point to possible low indoor residual spraying (IRS) efficacy-with An. arabiensis found to be the major vector species resting indoors. The IR tests demonstrated varying country-wide resistance levels to the insecticide deltamethrin, with the resistance levels confirmed to have increased in 2019, evidence that impacts national programmatic decision-making. Vectors demonstrated susceptibility to the insecticides dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane, bendiocarb and Actellic 300CS in 2018, with mosquitoes from only one site (Kavango West) demonstrating possible resistance to DDT. Targeted and question-based entomological surveillance enabled a rapid and focused evidence base to be built, showing where and when humans were being bitten and providing entomological data on long-lasting insecticidal nets, IRS efficacy and insecticide resistance, which the Ministry of Health and Social Services-Namibia can use to further build a monitoring and evaluation framework for understanding the drivers of transmission.

CONCLUSION

Identification and characterization of species-specific bionomic traits allows for an understanding of where and when vector human contact may occur as well as the potential impact of interventions. Low indoor resting rates as well as the presence of insecticide resistance (and the increase in its frequency) point to the need for mosquito-behavior-directed and appropriate interventions as well as the requirement for a resistance mitigation strategy. The ESPT-based question- and minimal essential indicator-based operational research strategy provides programs with directed and focused data for facilitating decision-making while requiring limited funding and capacity.

Household living conditions and individual behaviours associated with malaria risk: a community-based survey in the Limpopo River Valley, 2020, South Africa

BACKGROUND

Over the past decade, implementation of multiple malaria control strategies in most countries has largely contributed to advance the global malaria elimination agenda. Nevertheless, in some regions, seasonal epidemics may adversely affect the health of local populations. In South Africa, Plasmodium falciparum malaria is still present, with the Vhembe District experiencing an incidence rate of 3.79 cases/1000 person-years in 2018, particularly in the Limpopo River Valley, bordering Zimbabwe. To elucidate the complexity of the mechanisms involved in local regular malaria outbreaks, a community-based survey was implemented in 2020 that focused on the relationship between housing conditions and malaria risky behaviours.

METHODS

The community-based cross-sectional survey was conducted among the population of three study sites in the Vhembe District, which were selected based on malaria incidence rate, social and health characteristics of inhabitants. The household survey used a random sampling strategy, where data were collected through face-to-face questionnaires and field notes; to described the housing conditions (housing questionnaire), and focus on individual behaviours of household members. Statistical analyses were performed combining hierarchical classifications and logistic regressions.

RESULTS

In this study, 398 households were described, covering a population of 1681 inhabitants of all ages, and 439 adults who participated in community-based survey. The analysis of situations at risk of malaria showed that the influence of contextual factors, particularly those defined by the type of habitat, was significant. Housing conditions and poor living environments were factors of malaria exposure and history, regardless of site of investigation, individual preventive behaviours and personal characteristics of inhabitants. Multivariate models showed that, considering all personal characteristics or behaviours of inhabitants, housing conditions such as overcrowding pressures were significantly associated with individual malaria risk.

CONCLUSIONS

The results showed the overwhelming weight of social and contextual factors on risk situations. Considering the Fundamental Causes Theory, malaria control policies based on health behaviour prevention, should reinforce access to care or promoting health education actions. Overarching economic development interventions in targeted geographical areas and populations have to be implemented, so that malaria control and elimination strategies can be efficiently and effectively managed.

Understanding work-related travel and its relation to malaria occurrence in Thailand using geospatial maximum entropy modelling

BACKGROUND

Estimating malaria risk associated with work locations and travel across a region provides local health officials with information useful to mitigate possible transmission paths of malaria as well as understand the risk of exposure for local populations. This study investigates malaria exposure risk by analysing the spatial pattern of malaria cases (primarily Plasmodium vivax) in Ubon Ratchathani and Sisaket provinces of Thailand, using an ecological niche model and machine learning to estimate the species distribution of P. vivax malaria and compare the resulting niche areas with occupation type, work locations, and work-related travel routes.

METHODS

A maximum entropy model was trained to estimate the distribution of P. vivax malaria for a period between January 2019 and April 2020, capturing estimated malaria occurrence for these provinces. A random simulation workflow was developed to make region-based case data usable for the machine learning approach. This workflow was used to generate a probability surface for the ecological niche regions. The resulting niche regions were analysed by occupation type, home and work locations, and work-related travel routes to determine the relationship between these variables and malaria occurrence. A one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) test was used to understand the relationship between predicted malaria occurrence and occupation type.

RESULTS

The MaxEnt (full name) model indicated a higher occurrence of P. vivax malaria in forested areas especially along the Thailand-Cambodia border. The ANOVA results showed a statistically significant difference between average malaria risk values predicted from the ecological niche model for rubber plantation workers and farmers, the two main occupation groups in the study. The rubber plantation workers were found to be at higher risk of exposure to malaria than farmers in Ubon Ratchathani and Sisaket provinces of Thailand.

CONCLUSION

The results from this study point to occupation-related factors such as work location and the routes travelled to work, being risk factors in malaria occurrence and possible contributors to transmission among local populations.

Effectiveness of indoor residual spraying on malaria control: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Indoor residual spraying (IRS) is one of the key interventions recommended by World Health Organization in preventing malaria infection. We aimed to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis of global studies about the impact of IRS on malaria control.

Method

We searched PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, and Scopus for relevant studies published from database establishment to 31 December 2021. Random-effects models were used to perform meta-analysis and subgroup analysis to pool the odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI). Meta-regression was used to investigate potential factors of heterogeneity across studies.

Results

Thirty-eight articles including 81 reports and 1,174,970 individuals were included in the meta-analysis. IRS was associated with lower rates of malaria infection (OR = 0.35, 95% CI: 0.27–0.44). The significantly higher effectiveness was observed in IRS coverage ≥ 80% than in IRS coverage < 80%. Pyrethroids was identified to show the greatest performance in malaria control. In addition, higher effectiveness was associated with a lower gross domestic product as well as a higher coverage of IRS and bed net utilization.

Conclusions

IRS could induce a positive effect on malaria infection globally. The high IRS coverage and the use of pyrethroids are key measures to reduce malaria infection. More efforts should focus on increasing IRS coverage, developing more effective new insecticides against malaria, and using multiple interventions comprehensively to achieve malaria control goals.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40249-022-01005-8.

LLIN Evaluation in Uganda Project (LLINEUP2)-Factors associated with coverage and use of long‑lasting insecticidal nets following the 2020-21 national mass distribution campaign: a cross-sectional survey of 12 districts

BACKGROUND

In 2020-2021, long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) were distributed nationwide in Uganda during the COVID-19 pandemic. A cross-sectional survey was conducted in 12 districts to evaluate the impact of the campaign 1-5 months after LLIN distribution.

METHODS

During April-May 2021, households were randomly selected from target areas (1-7 villages) surrounding 12 government-run health facilities established as Malaria Reference Centres; at least 50 households were enrolled per cluster. Outcomes included household ownership of LLINs distributed through the universal coverage campaign (UCC) (at least one UCC LLIN), adequate coverage of UCC LLINs (at least one UCC LLIN per 2 residents), and use of LLINs (resident slept under a LLIN the previous night). Multivariate logistic regression models were used to identify household- and individual-level factors associated with outcomes, controlling for clustering around health facilities.

RESULTS

In total, 634 households, with 3342 residents and 1631 bed-nets, were included. Most households (93.4%) owned at least 1 UCC LLIN, but only 56.8% were adequately covered by UCC LLINs. In an adjusted analysis, the factor most strongly associated with adequate coverage by UCC LLINs was fewer household residents (1-4 vs 7-14; adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 12.96, 95% CI 4.76-35.26, p < 0.001; 5-6 vs 7-14 residents; aOR 2.99, 95% CI 1.21-7.42, p = 0.018). Of the 3166 residents of households that owned at least one UCC LLIN, only 1684 (53.2%) lived in adequately covered households; 89.9% of these used an LLIN the previous night, compared to 1034 (69.8%) of 1482 residents living in inadequately covered households. In an adjusted analysis, restricted to residents of inadequately covered households, LLIN use was higher in children under-five than those aged 5-15 years (aOR 3.04, 95% CI 2.08-4.46, p < 0.001), and higher in household heads than distantly-related residents (aOR 3.94, 95% CI 2.38-6.51, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Uganda's 2021-21 campaign was successful, despite the COVID-19 pandemic. In future campaigns, strategies should be adopted to ensure high LLIN coverage, particularly for larger households. A better understanding of the drivers of LLIN use within households is needed to guide future interventions, educational messages, and behaviour change communication strategies; school-aged children and distantly-related residents appear vulnerable and could be targeted.

Implementation and acceptance of government-sponsored malaria control interventions in Meghalaya, India

Background

India has made considerable progress in malaria reduction over the past two decades, with government-sponsored indoor residual spraying (IRS) and insecticide-treated bed net (ITN) or long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLIN) distribution being the main vector-related prevention efforts. Few investigations have used non-participant observational methods to assess malaria control measures while they were being implemented, nor documented people’s perceptions and acceptance of IRS or LLINs in India, and none have done so in the northeast region. This study evaluated household (HH)-level operation of IRS and distribution of LLINs by India’s National Vector Borne Disease Control Programme (NVBDCP) in 50 villages of Meghalaya state, and documented their acceptance and use.

Methods

Study field teams accompanied the government health system teams during August-October, 2019 and 2020 to observe deployment of LLINs, and record HH-level data on LLIN numbers and use. In addition, NVBDCP spray teams were followed during 2019–2021 to observe IRS preparation and administration. HH members were interviewed to better understand reasons for acceptance or refusal of spraying.

Results

A total of 8386 LLINs were distributed to 2727 HHs in 24 villages from five Primary Health Centres, representing 99.5% of planned coverage. Interviews with 80 HH residents indicated that they appreciated the LLIN dissemination programme, and generally made regular and appropriate use of LLINs, except during overnight travel or when working in agricultural fields. However, HH-level IRS application, which was observed at 632 HHs, did not always follow standard insecticide preparation and safety protocols. Of 1,079 occupied HHs visited by the spray team, 632 (58.6%) refused to allow any spraying. Only 198 (18.4%) HHs agreed to be sprayed, comprising 152 (14.1%) that were only partly sprayed, and 46 (4.3%) that were fully sprayed. Reasons for refusal included: inadequate time to rearrange HH items, young children were present, annoying smell, staining of walls, and threat to bee-keeping or Eri silk moth cultivation.

Conclusions

These findings are among the first in India that independently evaluate people's perceptions and acceptance of ongoing government-sponsored IRS and LLIN programmes for malaria prevention. They represent important insights for achieving India's goal of malaria elimination by 2030.

Surveillance to achieve malaria elimination in eastern Myanmar: a 7-year observational study

Background

The collection and utilization of surveillance data is essential in monitoring progress towards achieving malaria elimination, in the timely response to increases in malaria case numbers and in the assessment of programme functioning. This paper describes the surveillance activities used by the malaria elimination task force (METF) programme which operates in eastern Myanmar, and provides an analysis of data collected from weekly surveillance, case investigations, and monitoring and evaluation of programme performance.

Methods

This retrospective analysis was conducted using data collected from a network of 1250 malaria posts operational between 2014 and 2021. To investigate changes in data completeness, malaria post performance, malaria case numbers, and the demographic details of malaria cases, summary statistics were used to compare data collected over space and time.

Results

In the first 3 years of the METF programme, improvements in data transmission routes resulted in a 18.9% reduction in late reporting, allowing for near real-time analysis of data collected at the malaria posts. In 2020, travel restrictions were in place across Karen State in response to COVID-19, and from February 2021 the military coup in Myanmar resulted in widescale population displacement. However, over that period there has been no decline in malaria post attendance, and the majority of consultations continue to occur within 48 h of fever onset. Case investigations found that 43.8% of cases travelled away from their resident village in the 3 weeks prior to diagnosis and 36.3% reported never using a bed net whilst sleeping in their resident village, which increased to 72.2% when sleeping away from their resident village. Malaria post assessments performed in 82.3% of the METF malaria posts found malaria posts generally performed to a high standard.

Conclusions

Surveillance data collected by the METF programme demonstrate that despite significant changes in the context in which the programme operates, malaria posts have remained accessible and continue to provide early diagnosis and treatment contributing to an 89.3% decrease in Plasmodium falciparum incidence between 2014 and 2021.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12936-022-04175-w.

Sub-national tailoring of malaria interventions in Mainland Tanzania: simulation of the impact of strata-specific intervention combinations using modelling

Background

To accelerate progress against malaria in high burden countries, a strategic reorientation of resources at the sub-national level is needed. This paper describes how mathematical modelling was used in mainland Tanzania to support the strategic revision that followed the mid-term review of the 2015–2020 national malaria strategic plan (NMSP) and the epidemiological risk stratification at the council level in 2018.

Methods

Intervention mixes, selected by the National Malaria Control Programme, were simulated for each malaria risk strata per council. Intervention mixes included combinations of insecticide-treated bed nets (ITN), indoor residual spraying, larval source management, and intermittent preventive therapies for school children (IPTsc). Effective case management was either based on estimates from the malaria indicator survey in 2016 or set to a hypothetical target of 85%. A previously calibrated mathematical model in OpenMalaria was used to compare intervention impact predictions for prevalence and incidence between 2016 and 2020, or 2022.

Results

For each malaria risk stratum four to ten intervention mixes were explored. In the low-risk and urban strata, the scenario without a ITN mass campaign in 2019, predicted high increase in prevalence by 2020 and 2022, while in the very-low strata the target prevalence of less than 1% was maintained at low pre-intervention transmission intensity and high case management. In the moderate and high strata, IPTsc in addition to existing vector control was predicted to reduce the incidence by an additional 15% and prevalence by 22%. In the high-risk strata, all interventions together reached a maximum reduction of 76%, with around 70% of that reduction attributable to high case management and ITNs. Overall, the simulated revised NMSP was predicted to achieve a slightly lower prevalence in 2020 compared to the 2015–2020 NMSP (5.3% vs 6.3%).

Conclusion

Modelling supported the choice of intervention per malaria risk strata by providing impact comparisons of various alternative intervention mixes to address specific questions relevant to the country. The use of a council-calibrated model, that reproduces local malaria trends, represents a useful tool for compiling available evidence into a single analytical platform, that complement other evidence, to aid national programmes with decision-making processes.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12936-022-04099-5.