Predicting COVID-19 progression from diagnosis to recovery or death linking primary care and hospital records in Castilla y León (Spain)

Health trajectories in older patients hospitalized for COVID-19: Results from the GeroCovid multicenter study

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 has disproportionately affected older adults. Yet, healthcare trajectories experienced by older persons hospitalized for COVID-19 have not been investigated. This study aimed at estimating the probabilities of transitions between severity states in older adults admitted in COVID-19 acute wards and at identifying the factors associated with such dynamics.

METHODS

COVID-19 patients aged ≥60 years hospitalized between March and December 2020 were involved in the multicentre GeroCovid project-acute wards substudy. Sociodemographic and health data were obtained from medical records. Clinical states during hospitalization were categorized on a seven-category scale, ranging from hospital discharge to death. Based on the transitions between these states, first, we defined patients' clinical course as positive (only improvements), negative (only worsening), or fluctuating (both improvements and worsening). Second, we focused on the single transitions between clinical states and estimated their probability (through multistage Markov modeling) and associated factors (with proportional intensity models).

RESULTS

Of the 1024 included patients (mean age 78.1 years, 51.1% women), 637 (62.2%) had a positive, 66 (6.4%) had a fluctuating, and 321 (31.3%) had a negative clinical course. Patients with a fluctuating clinical course were younger, had better mobility and cognitive levels, fewer diseases, but a higher prevalence of cardiovascular disease and obesity. Considering the single transitions, the probability that older COVID-19 patients experienced clinical changes was higher within a 10-day timeframe, especially for milder clinical states. Older age, male sex, lower mobility level, multimorbidity, and hospitalization during the COVID-19 first wave (compared with the second one) were associated with an increased probability of progressing towards worse clinical states or with a lower recovery.

CONCLUSION

COVID-19 in older inpatients has a complex and dynamic clinical course. Identifying individuals more likely to experience a fluctuating clinical course and sudden worsening may help organize healthcare resources and clinical management across settings at different care intensity levels.

Predicting COVID-19 progression in hospitalized patients in Belgium from a multi-state model

Objectives

To adopt a multi-state risk prediction model for critical disease/mortality outcomes among hospitalised COVID-19 patients using nationwide COVID-19 hospital surveillance data in Belgium.

Materials and methods

Information on 44,659 COVID-19 patients hospitalised between March 2020 and June 2021 with complete data on disease outcomes and candidate predictors was used to adopt a multi-state, multivariate Cox model to predict patients' probability of recovery, critical [transfer to intensive care units (ICU)] or fatal outcomes during hospital stay.

Results

Median length of hospital stay was 9 days (interquartile range: 5-14). After admission, approximately 82% of the COVID-19 patients were discharged alive, 15% of patients were admitted to ICU, and 15% died in the hospital. The main predictors of an increased probability for recovery were younger age, and to a lesser extent, a lower number of prevalent comorbidities. A patient's transition to ICU or in-hospital death had in common the following predictors: high levels of c-reactive protein (CRP) and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), reporting lower respiratory complaints and male sex. Additionally predictors for a transfer to ICU included middle-age, obesity and reporting loss of appetite and staying at a university hospital, while advanced age and a higher number of prevalent comorbidities for in-hospital death. After ICU, younger age and low levels of CRP and LDH were the main predictors for recovery, while in-hospital death was predicted by advanced age and concurrent comorbidities.

Conclusion

As one of the very few, a multi-state model was adopted to identify key factors predicting COVID-19 progression to critical disease, and recovery or death.

Factors Associated with Length of Hospital Stay among COVID-19 Patients in Saudi Arabia: A Retrospective Study during the First Pandemic Wave

The COVID-19 pandemic severely affected healthcare systems and tested their preparedness. To date, the length of hospital stay (LoHS) and its factors among COVID-19 patients has not been thoroughly studied. Moreover, it is essential to identify the features of these patients. Adult COVID-19 patients in Saudi Arabia with complete electronic medical records and who were hospitalised for >1 day between 1 May 2020 and 30 July 2020 at one of two hospitals were considered for this retrospective cohort study. Descriptive statistics and multivariate generalized linear models were performed using the data. Of the patients, 34% were ≥50 years old and 80.14% were female. More than 70% had mild-to-moderate symptoms; 45% had either diabetes or hypertension. The median LoHS was 7.00 days (IQR: 3−11). Patients who were females, had either critical or severe disease, were on mechanical ventilation, had diabetes, and administered ceftriaxone had significantly longer LoHS (p < 0.05). Patients administered zinc sulphate had significantly shorter LoHS (p = 0.0008). During the first pandemic wave, COVID-19 patients were hospitalised for 7 days. Healthcare professionals should pay more attention to women, patients with diabetes, and those with severe or critical symptoms. Unnecessary use of ceftriaxone should be minimised, and zinc sulphate can be administered.

Diabetes Does Not Increase the Risk of Hospitalization Due to COVID-19 in Patients Aged 50 Years or Older in Primary Care-APHOSDIAB-COVID-19 Multicenter Study

The purpose of this study was to identify clinical, analytical, and sociodemographic variables associated with the need for hospital admission in people over 50 years infected with SARS-CoV-2 and to assess whether diabetes mellitus conditions the risk of hospitalization. A multicenter case-control study analyzing electronic medical records in patients with COVID-19 from 1 March 2020 to 30 April 2021 was conducted. We included 790 patients: 295 cases admitted to the hospital and 495 controls. Under half (n = 386, 48.8%) were women, and 8.5% were active smokers. The main comorbidities were hypertension (50.5%), dyslipidemia, obesity, and diabetes (37.5%). Multivariable logistic regression showed that hospital admission was associated with age above 65 years (OR from 2.45 to 3.89, ascending with age group); male sex (OR 2.15, 95% CI 1.47-3.15), fever (OR 4.31, 95% CI 2.87-6.47), cough (OR 1.89, 95% CI 1.28-2.80), asthenia/malaise (OR 2.04, 95% CI 1.38-3.03), dyspnea (4.69, 95% CI 3.00-7.33), confusion (OR 8.87, 95% CI 1.68-46.78), and a history of hypertension (OR 1.61, 95% CI 1.08-2.41) or immunosuppression (OR 4.97, 95% CI 1.45-17.09). Diabetes was not associated with increased risk of hospital admission (OR 1.18, 95% CI 0.80-1.72; p = 0.38). Diabetes did not increase the risk of hospital admission in people over 50 years old, but advanced age, male sex, fever, cough, asthenia, dyspnea/confusion, and hypertension or immunosuppression did.

The prognostic role of micronutrient status and supplements in COVID-19 outcomes: A systematic review

Micronutrients constitute an adjuvant treatment for respiratory viral infections. Since there is no effective antiviral therapy for COVID-19 yet, adjuvant intervention for the survival of critically ill patients may be significant. Search of the PubMed, CINAHL and Cochrane databases was carried out to find human studies investigating the prognostic role of micronutrient status and the effects of micronutrient supplementation intervention in COVID-19 outcomes of adult patients. Patients with certain comorbidities (diabetes mellitus type 2, obesity, renal failure, liver dysfunction etc.) or pregnant women were excluded. 31 studies (27 observational studies and 4 clinical trials) spanning the years 2020-2021, pertaining to 8624 COVID-19 patients (mean age±SD, 61 ± 9 years) were included in this systematic review. Few studies provided direct evidence on the association of serum levels of vitamin D, calcium, zinc, magnesium, phosphorus and selenium to patients' survival or death. Vitamin D and calcium were the most studied micronutrients and those with a probable promising favorable impact on patients. This review highlights the importance of a balanced nutritional status for a favorable outcome in COVID-19. Micronutrients' deficiency on admission to hospital seems to be related to a high risk for ICU admission, intubation and even death. Nevertheless, evidence for intervention remains unclear.