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Lettrich MD, Asaro MJ, Borggaard DL, Dick DM, Griffis RB, Litz JA, Orphanides CD, Palka DL, Soldevilla MS, Balmer B, Chavez S, Cholewiak D, Claridge D, Ewing RY, Fazioli KL, Fertl D, Fougeres EM, Gannon D, Garrison L, Gilbert J, Gorgone A, Hohn A, Horstman S, Josephson B, Kenney RD, Kiszka JJ, Maze-Foley K, McFee W, Mullin KD, Murray K, Pendleton DE, Robbins J, Roberts JJ, Rodriguez- Ferrer G, Ronje EI, Rosel PE, Speakman T, Stanistreet JE, Stevens T, Stolen M, Moore RT, Vollmer NL, Wells R, Whitehead HR, Whitt A. Vulnerability to climate change of United States marine mammal stocks in the western North Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean. PLoS One 2023; 18:e0290643. [PMID: 37729181 PMCID: PMC10511136 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0290643] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/28/2023] [Accepted: 08/11/2023] [Indexed: 09/22/2023] Open
Abstract
Climate change and climate variability are affecting marine mammal species and these impacts are projected to continue in the coming decades. Vulnerability assessments provide a framework for evaluating climate impacts over a broad range of species using currently available information. We conducted a trait-based climate vulnerability assessment using expert elicitation for 108 marine mammal stocks and stock groups in the western North Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean Sea. Our approach combined the exposure (projected change in environmental conditions) and sensitivity (ability to tolerate and adapt to changing conditions) of marine mammal stocks to estimate vulnerability to climate change, and categorize stocks with a vulnerability index. The climate vulnerability score was very high for 44% (n = 47) of these stocks, high for 29% (n = 31), moderate for 20% (n = 22), and low for 7% (n = 8). The majority of stocks (n = 78; 72%) scored very high exposure, whereas 24% (n = 26) scored high, and 4% (n = 4) scored moderate. The sensitivity score was very high for 33% (n = 36) of these stocks, high for 18% (n = 19), moderate for 34% (n = 37), and low for 15% (n = 16). Vulnerability results were summarized for stocks in five taxonomic groups: pinnipeds (n = 4; 25% high, 75% moderate), mysticetes (n = 7; 29% very high, 57% high, 14% moderate), ziphiids (n = 8; 13% very high, 50% high, 38% moderate), delphinids (n = 84; 52% very high, 23% high, 15% moderate, 10% low), and other odontocetes (n = 5; 60% high, 40% moderate). Factors including temperature, ocean pH, and dissolved oxygen were the primary drivers of high climate exposure, with effects mediated through prey and habitat parameters. We quantified sources of uncertainty by bootstrapping vulnerability scores, conducting leave-one-out analyses of individual attributes and individual scorers, and through scoring data quality for each attribute. These results provide information for researchers, managers, and the public on marine mammal responses to climate change to enhance the development of more effective marine mammal management, restoration, and conservation activities that address current and future environmental variation and biological responses due to climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Matthew D. Lettrich
- ECS Under Contract for Office of Science and Technology, NOAA Fisheries, Silver Spring, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Michael J. Asaro
- Northeast Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Fisheries, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Diane L. Borggaard
- Greater Atlantic Regional Fisheries Office, NOAA Fisheries, Gloucester, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Dorothy M. Dick
- Office of Protected Resources, NOAA Fisheries, Silver Spring, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Roger B. Griffis
- Office of Science and Technology, NOAA Fisheries, Silver Spring, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Jenny A. Litz
- Marine Mammal and Turtle Division, Southeast Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Fisheries, Miami, Florida, United States of America
| | - Christopher D. Orphanides
- Northeast Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Fisheries, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Debra L. Palka
- Northeast Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Fisheries, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Melissa S. Soldevilla
- Marine Mammal and Turtle Division, Southeast Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Fisheries, Miami, Florida, United States of America
| | - Brian Balmer
- Dolphin Relief and Research, Clancy, Montana, United States of America
| | - Samuel Chavez
- Integrated Statistics, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Danielle Cholewiak
- Northeast Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Fisheries, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Diane Claridge
- Bahamas Marine Mammal Research Organisation, Marsh Harbour, Abaco, Bahamas
| | - Ruth Y. Ewing
- Marine Mammal and Turtle Division, Southeast Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Fisheries, Miami, Florida, United States of America
| | - Kristi L. Fazioli
- Environmental Institute of Houston, University of Houston ‐ Clear Lake, Houston, Texas, United States of America
| | - Dagmar Fertl
- Ziphius EcoServices, Magnolia, Texas, United States of America
| | - Erin M. Fougeres
- Southeast Regional Office, NOAA Fisheries, Saint Petersburg, Florida, United States of America
| | - Damon Gannon
- University of Georgia Marine Institute, Sapelo Island, Georgia, United States of America
| | - Lance Garrison
- Marine Mammal and Turtle Division, Southeast Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Fisheries, Miami, Florida, United States of America
| | - James Gilbert
- University of Maine, Orono, Maine, United States of America
| | - Annie Gorgone
- CIMAS, University of Miami, Under Contract for NOAA Fisheries Southeast Fisheries Science Center, Beaufort, North Carolina, United States of America
| | - Aleta Hohn
- Marine Mammal and Turtle Division, Southeast Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Fisheries, Beaufort, North Carolina, United States of America
| | - Stacey Horstman
- Southeast Regional Office, NOAA Fisheries, Saint Petersburg, Florida, United States of America
| | - Beth Josephson
- Integrated Statistics, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Robert D. Kenney
- Graduate School of Oceanography, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, Rhode Island, United States of America
| | - Jeremy J. Kiszka
- Department of Biological Sciences, Institute of Environment, Florida International University, Miami, Florida, United States of America
| | - Katherine Maze-Foley
- CIMAS, University of Miami, Under Contract for Marine Mammal and Turtle Division, Southeast Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Fisheries, Miami, Florida, United States of America
| | - Wayne McFee
- National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science, National Ocean Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Charleston, South Carolina, United States of America
| | - Keith D. Mullin
- Marine Mammal and Turtle Division, Southeast Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Fisheries, Pascagoula, Mississippi, United States of America
| | - Kimberly Murray
- Northeast Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Fisheries, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Daniel E. Pendleton
- Anderson Cabot Center for Ocean Life at the New England Aquarium, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Jooke Robbins
- Center for Coastal Studies, Provincetown, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Jason J. Roberts
- Marine Geospatial Ecology Lab, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, United States of America
| | | | - Errol I. Ronje
- National Centers for Environmental Information, NOAA, Stennis Space Center, Hancock County, Mississippi, United States of America
| | - Patricia E. Rosel
- Marine Mammal and Turtle Division, Southeast Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Fisheries, Lafayette, Louisiana, United States of America
| | - Todd Speakman
- National Marine Mammal Foundation, Charleston, South Carolina, United States of America
| | | | - Tara Stevens
- CSA Ocean Sciences, East Greenwich, Rhode Island, United States of America
| | - Megan Stolen
- Blue World Research Institute, Merritt Island, Florida, United States of America
| | - Reny Tyson Moore
- Sarasota Dolphin Research Program, Chicago Zoological Society, Sarasota, Florida, United States of America
| | - Nicole L. Vollmer
- CIMAS, University of Miami, Under Contract for Marine Mammal and Turtle Division, Southeast Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Fisheries, Lafayette, Louisiana, United States of America
| | - Randall Wells
- Sarasota Dolphin Research Program, Chicago Zoological Society, Sarasota, Florida, United States of America
| | - Heidi R. Whitehead
- Texas Marine Mammal Stranding Network, Galveston, Texas, United States of America
| | - Amy Whitt
- Azura Consulting, Garland, Texas, United States of America
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