Factors associated with police shooting mortality: A focus on race and a plea for more comprehensive data

Characteristics of Injurious Shootings by Police Along the Urban-Rural Continuum

INTRODUCTION

Much research on shootings by police has focused on urban jurisdictions, but most U.S. law enforcement agencies are not located in cities. Prior research suggests that rates of fatal shootings by police are comparable between urban and nonurban areas. Yet, shooting characteristics across the urban-rural continuum are unknown. This study describes and compares fatal and nonfatal injurious shootings by officers in U.S. urban, suburban, and rural areas from 2015 to 2020.

METHODS

Characteristics of fatal and nonfatal injurious shootings by police were abstracted from Gun Violence Archive. In 2023-2024, using ZIP-code and county-based rurality designations, the national distribution, incidence, and characteristics of injurious shootings by police were compared across urban, suburban, and rural areas of the U.S.

RESULTS

Rates of injurious shootings in rural areas approached or exceeded those of urban rates. As rurality increased, proportionately more injurious shootings involved single responders, sheriffs, or multiple agency types. Across the urban-rural continuum, characteristics of precipitating incidents were similar. Injurious shootings were most frequently preceded by domestic violence incidents, traffic stops, or shots-fired reports; co-occurring behavioral health needs were common. After accounting for local demographic differences, Black, indigenous, and Hispanic residents were injured at higher rates than White residents in all examined areas.

CONCLUSIONS

Shootings by police represent an overlooked and inequitable source of injury in rural areas. Broadly similar incident characteristics suggest potential for wide-reaching reforms. To prevent injuries, crisis prevention, dispatch, and response systems must assure proportionate rural-area coverage. In addition, legislative prevention and accountability measures should include sheriffs' offices for optimal rural-area impact.

Emergency department documentation of legal intervention injuries at a Washington, DC, hospital

BACKGROUND

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) defines legal intervention injuries as injuries caused by law enforcement agents in the course of official duties. Public health databases utilize International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision (ICD-10), coding to collect these data through the "Y35" family ICD-10 code. Prior studies report deficiencies in public health recording of fatal legal intervention injuries. Few studies have characterized nonfatal injuries. This study investigates emergency department (ED) capture of legal intervention injury diagnostic coding.

METHODS

A retrospective chart review was performed on ED encounter data from January 1, 2017, to June 30, 2019, at an academic hospital in Washington, DC. Charts were identified using a keyword search program for "police." Chart abstracters reviewed the flagged charts and abstracted those that met injury definition. Primary outcomes included injury severity, patient demographics, and documented ICD-10 codes. One sample proportion testing was performed comparing sample census ED data.

RESULTS

A total of 340 encounters had sufficient descriptions of legal intervention injuries. A total of 259 had descriptions consistent with the patient specifier of "suspect." Hospital coders recorded 74 charts (28.6%) with the Y35 family legal intervention injury code. A total of 212 involved a Black patient. A total of 122 patients had Medicaid and 94 were uninsured. Black patients made up a higher proportion of individuals in the "suspect identified legal intervention injury" group than the total population (0.819 vs. 0.609, p < 0.01, 95% CI 0.772-0.866). Patients with Medicaid or who were uninsured made up substantial proportions as well (0.471 vs. 0.175, p < 0.01, 95% CI 0.410-0.532 for Medicaid patients and 0.363 vs. 0.155, p < 0.01, 95% CI 0.304-0.424 for the uninsured patients).

CONCLUSION

A large proportion of nonfatal legal intervention injuries remain unreported. Black and low-income patients are disproportionately affected. More research is needed but benefits from interprofessional data sharing, injury pattern awareness, and diagnostic coding guidance may improve reporting.

National Burden of Injury and Deaths From Shootings by Police in the United States, 2015‒2020

Objectives. To describe all-outcome injurious shootings by police and compare characteristics of fatal versus nonfatal injurious shootings nationally. Methods. From July 2021 to April 2023, we manually reviewed publicly available records on all 2015-2020 injurious shootings by US police, identified from Gun Violence Archive. We estimated injury frequency, case fatality rates, and relative odds of death by incident and victim characteristics. Results. A total of 1769 people were injured annually in shootings by police, 55% fatally. When a shooting injury occurred, odds of fatality were 46% higher following dispatched responses than police-initiated responses. Injuries associated with physically threatening or threat-making behaviors, behavioral health needs, and well-being checks were most frequently fatal. Relative to White victims, Black victims were overrepresented but had 35% lower odds of fatal injury when shot. Conclusions. This first multiyear, nationwide analysis of injurious shootings by US police suggests that injury disparities are underestimated by fatal shootings alone. Nonpolicing responses to social needs may prevent future injuries. Public Health Implications. We call for enhanced reporting systems, comprehensive evaluation of emerging reforms, and targeted investment in social services for equitable injury prevention. (Am J Public Health. 2024;114(4):387-397. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2023.307560).

The deadliest local police departments kill 6.91 times more frequently than the least deadly departments, net of risk, in the United States

I use data linking counts of homicides by police to police department (PD) and jurisdiction characteristics to estimate benchmarked (i.e. risk-adjusted) police homicide rates in 2008-2017 among the 711 local PDs serving 50,000 or more residents, a sample with demographics resembling all mid-to-large Census places. The benchmarked rate estimates capture PD deadliness by comparing PDs to peers whose officers face similar risks while adjusting for access to trauma care centers to account for differential mortality from deadly force. Compared to existing estimates, differences in benchmarked estimates are more plausibly attributable to policing differences, speaking to whether the force currently used is necessary to maintain safety and public order. I find that the deadliest PDs kill at 6.91 times the benchmarked rate of the least deadly PDs. If the PDs with above-average deadliness instead killed at average rates for a PD facing similar risks, police homicides would decrease by 34.44%. Reducing deadliness to the lowest observed levels would decrease them by 70.04%. These estimates also indicate the percentage of excess police homicides-those unnecessary for maintaining safety-if the baseline agency is assumed to be optimally deadly. Moreover, PD deadliness has a strong, robust association with White/Black segregation and Western regions. Additionally, Black, Hispanic, foreign-born, lower income, and less educated people are disproportionately exposed to deadlier PDs due to the jurisdictions they reside in. Police violence is an important public health concern that is distributed unevenly across US places, contributing to social disparities that disproportionately harm already marginalized communities.

Firearm availability and police shootings of citizens: a city level analysis of fatal and injurious shootings in California and Florida

BACKGROUND

A growing body of research has found a link between firearm availability and police shootings of citizens across place. The problem, however, is that the previous studies on the topic tend to suffer from several limitations: a near exclusive focus on citizen fatalities, units of analysis at the state or county levels, and a variety of proxy measures tapping into community-level firearm access. The current study set out to address these issues by examining the relationship between different forms of firearm availability and both fatal and nonfatal injurious police shootings of citizens at the city level.

METHODS

More specifically, it merged The Trace's "Missing Pieces" measures of guns reported lost and stolen to police as well as licensed firearms dealers across jurisdictions from the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives as proxies for firearm availability with data on police shootings of citizens in California and Florida from California's URSUS system and the Tampa Bay Times' "Why Cops Shoot" database, respectively. Negative binomial regression analyses were performed on a sample of 253 cities across the two states and a sub-sample of cities with licensed firearms dealers.

RESULTS

Findings uncovered a small positive association between rates of federally licensed guns stores and the number citizens shot by police as well as police shooting incidents while controlling for several community-level measures (e.g., concentrated disadvantage, gun homicide rates). Rates of guns lost or reported stolen were generally not significantly associated with the outcome measures in the multivariate models.

CONCLUSIONS

Firearm availability is a significant correlate of police shootings. Pooled counts of both citizens shot by police and police shooting incidents are heightened in jurisdictions with higher rates of licensed gun dealers, which may be due to the fact that all firearms sold in the USA first make their way to the public through these mechanisms. Such licensed gun dealers must be appropriately monitored and audited to reduce illicit behavior and prevent firearms from making their way into secondary markets. Addressing access to firearms can be meaningful for a host of gun-related morbidity and mortality outcomes, including police shootings of citizens.

Multi-group data versus dual-side theory: On race contrasts and police-caused homicides

Empirical evidence points to a persistent Black-White racial gap in police-caused homicides. Some scholarship treats the gap as denoting criminal justice exposure either in terms of involvement in crime or living in a high-crime context. By contrast, health scholarship typically points to the importance of racism including the attitudes, institutional practices, and overall structures that operate to privilege one group over another. Still, given the demographics of US society, the Black-White racial contrast overlooks the 25% of Americans who are neither Black nor White: Native Americans, Latinos, and Asians. The question of how the groups should be organized vis-a-vis the current Black-White model and theories arises. An answer is not straightforward. There is a rank-ordering to the groups' mortality rates as well as an exponential increase in the number of possible comparisons. In this paper we systematically review the literature on race and police-caused homicide with a particular focus on studies that attempt to move beyond the Black-White model. We find that studies on race and police-caused homicide either make no comparison between the groups, or, alternatively, use a White-non-White, a Black-non-Black, and/or a Black-Native American-Latino vs. White-Asian comparison. We use data on group-specific mortality rates to examine the strengths and limits of each of these practices. The limits are the selection of counterfactual gaps, the selection of smaller gaps, and/or the omission of larger gaps. To address these limits, we propose that a Black-Native American vs. Latino-White-Asian model best captures the higher and lower mortality rates in police-caused homicide data.

The emerging infrastructure of US firearms injury data

For every fatal shooting in the United States, detailed information from reports of coroners or medical examiners, police departments, and other sources is recorded in the National Violent Death Reporting System. There is no such system in place for nonfatal shootings, which far outnumber fatalities. Hospital data systems are in place that could, with some improvements, provide access to reliable local, state and national estimates of firearm injuries. Such estimates are possible because most firearms injuries are treated in hospitals, and hospitals routinely assign "external cause of injury" codes to all injury encounters. Federal health agencies supervise a number of data systems that centralize hospital data. Challenges currently being addressed are public access, timeliness, and accuracy of coding of intent. (Hospitals misclassify many firearm assaults as accidents.) Law enforcement agencies provide detailed data on shootings in criminal circumstances, including shootings that are not treated in a hospital. The FBI's Uniform Crime Reports (UCR) system aggregates data from agencies. The FBI instituted a radical reform of this system beginning in 2021, resulting in a sharp agency participation drop that prevents valid national estimates. The reform requires agencies to report incident-level data instead of summary counts, which is all that was required for the previous 90 years. There are ongoing efforts to increase participation in the new system and restore its former status as the leading source of national crime estimates. In the meantime, data on nonfatal gunshot cases are available from a number of police departments. We discuss additional reforms needed to generate timely, accurate, publicly accessible data from hospitals and police.

Disaggregating Asian American and Pacific Islander Risk of Fatal Police Violence

High rates and racial inequities in U.S. fatal police violence are an urgent area of public health concern and policy attention. Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders (AAPIs) have been described as experiencing low rates of fatal police violence, yet AAPI subgroups vary widely on nearly every demographic and economic metric. Here, we calculate fatal police violence rates by AAPI regional and national/ethnic background, finding wide variation. We compile a list of AAPI people killed in interactions with police in 2013-2019, then use web searches and surname algorithms to identify decedents' backgrounds. Rates are then calculated by combining this numerator data with population denominators from the American Community Survey and fitting Poisson models. Excluding 18% of deaths with missing regional backgrounds, East and South Asian Americans died at a rate of 0.05 and 0.04 deaths per 100,000 (95% CI: 0.04-0.06 and 0.02-0.08), respectively, less than a third of Southeast Asian Americans' rate (0.16, CI: 0.13-0.19). Pacific Islanders suffered higher rates (0.88, CI: 0.65-1.19), on par with Native and Black Americans. More granularly, Southeast Asian American groups displaced by US war in Southeast Asia suffered higher rates than others from the same region. Traditional racial classifications thus obscure high risks of fatal police violence for AAPI subgroups. Disaggregation is needed to improve responses to fatal police violence and its racial/ethnic inequities.

How place and race drive the numbers of fatal police shootings in the US: 2015-2020

Place and race are two important predictors of fatal police shootings. We used Mapping Police Violence Data and the Washington Post Fatal Force Data to determine whether a county's deprivation status within communities influences the association between the number of fatal police shootings, and how the number of fatal police shootings differs by race and ethnicity. We categorized counties based on the Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) to three categories: low-, medium-, and high-SVI. The analytical sample included 3136 US counties between 2015 and 2020; during this time, 5525 individuals were fatally shot by police. Our findings show that place strongly impacts the number of fatal police shootings. Among all fatal shootings, 713 occurred in low-SVI counties, 1660 in middle-SVI, and 3152 in high-SVI counties. Race played a significant role; fatal shooting deaths increased by 2.3 times among White individuals, 9.6 times among Black individuals, and 15 times among Hispanic individuals between low- and high-SVI counties. The results of negative binomial regressions show a strong association between fatal police shootings and the counties' characteristics. In comparison with low-SVI counties, residents in counties with moderate and high-SVI are more likely to be fatally shot by police by 4.9 and 5.8 percentage points. In addressing violence and fatal police shootings, the vulnerability of counties and the population's racial composition play significant roles and need specific attention in addressing systemic racial disparities in the criminal justice system.

Officer-Involved Shootings and Concealed Carry Weapons Permitting Laws: Analysis of Gun Violence Archive Data, 2014-2020

About 1,000 civilians are killed every year by a law enforcement officer in the USA, more than 90% by firearms. Most civilians who are shot are armed with a firearms. Higher rates of officer-involved shootings (OIS) are positively associated with state-level firearm ownership. Laws relaxing restrictions on civilians carrying concealed firearms (CCW) have been associated with increased violent crime. This study examines associations between CCW laws and OIS. We accessed counts of fatal and nonfatal OIS from the Gun Violence Archive (GVA) from 2014-2020 and calculated rates using population estimates. We conducted legal research to identify passage years of CCW laws. We used an augmented synthetic control models with fixed effects to estimate the effect of Permitless CCW law adoption on OIS over fourteen biannual semesters. We calculated an inverse variance weighted average of the overall effect. On average, Permitless CCW adopting states saw a 12.9% increase in the OIS victimization rate or an additional 4 OIS victimizations per year, compared to what would have happened had law adoption not occurred. Lax laws regulating civilian carrying of concealed firearms were associated with higher incidence of OIS. The increase in concealed gun carrying frequency associated with these laws may influence the perceived threat of danger faced by law enforcement. This could contribute to higher rates of OIS.